diff --git a/.gitignore b/.gitignore index ead0f31..04b2539 100644 --- a/.gitignore +++ b/.gitignore @@ -5,3 +5,5 @@ node_modules/ possiblenewsources.md herokulocation.md + +**/manualDownloadFromMongo.js diff --git a/data/metaforecasts.json b/data/metaforecasts.json index 19a9669..b517393 100644 --- a/data/metaforecasts.json +++ b/data/metaforecasts.json @@ -7,19 +7,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:14.639Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:11.501Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "85", - "numforecasters": "73", + "numforecasts": "95", + "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -41,10 +41,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:17.431Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:13.845Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "46", + "numforecasts": "54", + "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -57,34 +57,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 5.5%", - "probability": 0.11320000000000001, + "probability": 0.1219, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%", - "probability": 0.1975, + "probability": 0.2054, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2779, + "probability": 0.2735, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1925, + "probability": 0.1777, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 12%", - "probability": 0.2189, + "probability": 0.2214, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:20.424Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:16.514Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "97", - "numforecasters": "82", + "numforecasts": "100", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.5%, More than 5.5% but less than or equal to 7%, Between 7% and 9.5%, inclusive, Between 9.5% and 12%, inclusive, More than 12%" @@ -106,9 +106,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:23.231Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:18.571Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasts": "27", "numforecasters": "23", "stars": 2 }, @@ -122,19 +122,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:25.848Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:21.071Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "23", - "numforecasters": "19", + "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasters": "20", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -156,7 +156,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:28.960Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:22.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "20", "numforecasters": "18", @@ -172,34 +172,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 7,500", - "probability": 0.0418, + "probability": 0.0438, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1286, + "probability": 0.131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500", - "probability": 0.3054, + "probability": 0.3045, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500", - "probability": 0.30820000000000003, + "probability": 0.3097, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 13,500", - "probability": 0.2161, + "probability": 0.21100000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:31.766Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:25.032Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "49", - "numforecasters": "40", + "numforecasts": "51", + "numforecasters": "41", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,500, inclusive, More than 9,500 but less than or equal to 11,500, More than 11,500 but less than or equal to 13,500, More than 13,500" @@ -212,33 +212,33 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 70,000", - "probability": 0.1252, + "probability": 0.12380000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 70,000 and 90,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.33140000000000003, + "probability": 0.32539999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 90,000 but less than or equal to 110,000", - "probability": 0.3232, + "probability": 0.3276, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110,000 but less than or equal to 130,000", - "probability": 0.16579999999999998, + "probability": 0.1686, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 130,000", - "probability": 0.054400000000000004, + "probability": 0.0546, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:34.995Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:27.265Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "89", + "numforecasts": "90", "numforecasters": "73", "stars": 2 }, @@ -262,12 +262,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion", - "probability": 0.5379999999999999, + "probability": 0.5376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion", - "probability": 0.2029, + "probability": 0.20329999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -276,14 +276,54 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:47:38.073Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:29.493Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "36", + "numforecasts": "37", "numforecasters": "30", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $400 billion, Between $400 billion and $525 billion, inclusive, More than $525 billion but less than or equal to $650 billion, More than $650 billion but less than or equal to $775 billion, More than $775 billion" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (September 2021 through October 2022)?", + "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/119-what-percentage-of-o-visas-will-go-to-chinese-nationals-in-fiscal-year-2022", + "platform": "CSET-foretell", + "description": "Related questions. This question was previously issued for FY 2021. Initially two versions of that question were published, one conditioned on Vice President Biden's election, and one conditioned on President Trump's election. After Vice President Biden was elected, we dropped the condition on one question and voided the other. You can view the Biden/FY 2021 forecasts here and the Trump/FY 2021 (voided) forecasts here. And here is a blog post discussing the forecasts. The mean crowd forecast for FY 2021 is 4.3%.A variation of this question—specific to O-1 visas—was previously issued for July 1 to September 30, 2020. You can view those forecasts here. Context. This question includes O-1, O-2, and O-3 visas. O-1 is a category of U.S. visa for individuals with extraordinary ability or achievement in the sciences, arts, education, business, or athletics. O-2 visas are for individuals who assist the recipients of O-1 visas, and O-3 visas are for the spouses or children of recipients of O-1 or O-2 visas. The initial authorized period of stay is up to three years, with the possibility of extension.Data and resolution details. This question is based on U.S. Department of State data. The Department of State provides both annual and (unofficial) monthly statistics on nonimmigrant visa issuances. This question resolves when the Department of State publishes O visa statistics for either fiscal year 2022 or the month of September 2022, whichever comes first. This question includes visas for Mainland China only, not Taiwan. Although FY 2021 data in its entirety is not yet available, for the first four months of FY 2021 (October - January), 1.1% of O visas went to Chinese nationals.    The data underlying the graph is here.This question is a metric for the following scenarios: Three Possible 2025 Worlds that Should Inform Policy Today An Isolated China in a Globalized World To suggest a change or clarification to this question, please select Request Clarification from the green gear-shaped dropdown button to the right of the question.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Less than 3%", + "probability": 0.22690000000000002, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive", + "probability": 0.31079999999999997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", + "probability": 0.2969, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%", + "probability": 0.11380000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 7.5%", + "probability": 0.051500000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:32.014Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "20", + "numforecasters": "18", + "stars": 2 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 3%, Between 3% and 4.5%, inclusive, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6% but less than or equal to 7.5%, More than 7.5%" + }, { "title": "What will the combined revenue of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Microsoft be in the second half of 2021?", "url": "https://www.cset-foretell.com/questions/114-what-will-the-combined-revenue-of-alphabet-amazon-apple-facebook-and-microsoft-be-in-the-second-half-of-2021", @@ -292,34 +332,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $470 billion", - "probability": 0.050199999999999995, + "probability": 0.049400000000000006, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.133, + "probability": 0.12179999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion", - "probability": 0.245, + "probability": 0.239, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion", - "probability": 0.31420000000000003, + "probability": 0.32020000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $680 billion", - "probability": 0.2576, + "probability": 0.2696, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:49:59.269Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:40.877Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "84", - "numforecasters": "72", + "numforecasts": "87", + "numforecasters": "74", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $470 billion, Between $470 billion and $540 billion, inclusive, More than $540 billion but less than or equal to $610 billion, More than $610 billion but less than or equal to $680 billion, More than $680 billion" @@ -341,9 +381,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:02.644Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:42.747Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasts": "147", "numforecasters": "109", "stars": 3 }, @@ -357,19 +397,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.88, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:04.965Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:44.587Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "195", - "numforecasters": "135", + "numforecasts": "200", + "numforecasters": "137", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -382,34 +422,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $40 billion", - "probability": 0.0528, + "probability": 0.0806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.2522, + "probability": 0.2458, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion", - "probability": 0.4056, + "probability": 0.3942, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion", - "probability": 0.21719999999999998, + "probability": 0.2094, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $100 billion", - "probability": 0.0722, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:08.571Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:47.386Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "57", - "numforecasters": "46", + "numforecasts": "59", + "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $40 billion, Between $40 billion and $60 billion, inclusive, More than $60 billion but less than or equal to $80 billion, More than $80 billion but less than or equal to $100 billion, More than $100 billion" @@ -422,34 +462,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $13 billion", - "probability": 0.0332, + "probability": 0.0363, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1223, + "probability": 0.1251, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion", - "probability": 0.42450000000000004, + "probability": 0.4354, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion", - "probability": 0.32030000000000003, + "probability": 0.3066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $25 billion", - "probability": 0.09970000000000001, + "probability": 0.0966, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:11.711Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:49.721Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "59", - "numforecasters": "45", + "numforecasts": "65", + "numforecasters": "51", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $13 billion, Between $13 billion and $17 billion, inclusive, More than $17 billion but less than or equal to $21 billion, More than $21 billion but less than or equal to $25 billion, More than $25 billion" @@ -462,22 +502,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than -0.25", - "probability": 0.19329999999999997, + "probability": 0.1953, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between -0.25 and 0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3189, + "probability": 0.32159999999999994, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0 but less than or equal to 0.25", - "probability": 0.29960000000000003, + "probability": 0.3024, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 0.25 but less than or equal to 0.5", - "probability": 0.1467, + "probability": 0.1393, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -486,9 +526,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:15.073Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:52.770Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "150", + "numforecasts": "153", "numforecasters": "111", "stars": 3 }, @@ -526,7 +566,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:17.888Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:54.965Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "115", "numforecasters": "92", @@ -542,34 +582,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than $30 million", - "probability": 0.0492, + "probability": 0.0509, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3036, + "probability": 0.30829999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million", - "probability": 0.3403, + "probability": 0.33799999999999997, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million", - "probability": 0.2051, + "probability": 0.2028, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 million", - "probability": 0.1018, + "probability": 0.1001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:20.697Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:57.329Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "144", - "numforecasters": "114", + "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasters": "116", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than $30 million, Between $30 million and $70 million, inclusive, More than $70 million but less than or equal to $110 million, More than $110 million but less than or equal to $150 million, More than $150 million" @@ -582,34 +622,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 26,000", - "probability": 0.031, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.0981, + "probability": 0.09720000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000", - "probability": 0.2158, + "probability": 0.2138, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000", - "probability": 0.3145, + "probability": 0.3175, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 32,000", - "probability": 0.3406, + "probability": 0.34159999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:23.822Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:01:59.543Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "73", - "numforecasters": "45", + "numforecasts": "75", + "numforecasters": "46", "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 26,000, Between 26,000 and 28,000, inclusive, More than 28,000 but less than or equal to 30,000, More than 30,000 but less than or equal to 32,000, More than 32,000" @@ -622,34 +662,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 800", - "probability": 0.1282, + "probability": 0.1274, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 800 and 4,000", - "probability": 0.4506, + "probability": 0.45409999999999995, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000", - "probability": 0.2904, + "probability": 0.2882, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000", - "probability": 0.1013, + "probability": 0.1008, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 100,000", - "probability": 0.0296, + "probability": 0.029500000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:27.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:02.797Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "157", - "numforecasters": "103", + "numforecasts": "162", + "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 800, Between 800 and 4,000, More than 4,000 but less than or equal to 20,000, More than 20,000 but less than or equal to 100,000, More than 100,000" @@ -686,9 +726,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:37.154Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:11.294Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "67", + "numforecasts": "68", "numforecasters": "55", "stars": 2 }, @@ -711,10 +751,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:40.350Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:13.503Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "153", - "numforecasters": "90", + "numforecasts": "154", + "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -751,7 +791,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:43.474Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:15.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "75", "numforecasters": "59", @@ -776,10 +816,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:46.450Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:17.724Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "365", - "numforecasters": "198", + "numforecasts": "372", + "numforecasters": "200", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -811,7 +851,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:49.230Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:20.532Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "249", "numforecasters": "137", @@ -837,7 +877,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 66% but less than or equal to 73%", - "probability": 0.2658, + "probability": 0.2663, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -847,13 +887,13 @@ }, { "name": "More than 80%", - "probability": 0.1376, + "probability": 0.1371, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:52.528Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:23.265Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "239", + "numforecasts": "241", "numforecasters": "169", "stars": 3 }, @@ -876,9 +916,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:55.172Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:25.083Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "201", + "numforecasts": "202", "numforecasters": "133", "stars": 3 }, @@ -892,34 +932,34 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 1.5%", - "probability": 0.067, + "probability": 0.0665, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.1356, + "probability": 0.13419999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%", - "probability": 0.2113, + "probability": 0.2091, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%", - "probability": 0.2891, + "probability": 0.2879, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6%", - "probability": 0.29710000000000003, + "probability": 0.3023, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:50:58.224Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:27.938Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "222", - "numforecasters": "140", + "numforecasts": "224", + "numforecasters": "141", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.5%, Between 1.5% and 3%, inclusive, More than 3% but less than or equal to 4.5%, More than 4.5% but less than or equal to 6%, More than 6%" @@ -940,7 +980,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.609Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.620Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 352, "numforecasters": 143, @@ -964,7 +1004,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.610Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 235, "numforecasters": 127, @@ -988,7 +1028,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.610Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 160, "numforecasters": 104, @@ -1012,7 +1052,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.610Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 138, "numforecasters": 96, @@ -1036,7 +1076,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.610Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "numforecasters": 92, @@ -1060,7 +1100,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.610Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 214, "numforecasters": 91, @@ -1084,7 +1124,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - 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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 24, @@ -2308,7 +2348,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 23, @@ -2332,7 +2372,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 23, @@ -2356,7 +2396,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "numforecasters": 23, @@ -2380,7 +2420,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 23, @@ -2404,7 +2444,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "numforecasters": 23, @@ -2428,7 +2468,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 22, @@ -2452,7 +2492,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 22, @@ -2476,7 +2516,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 22, @@ -2500,7 +2540,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 22, @@ -2524,7 +2564,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "numforecasters": 22, @@ -2548,7 +2588,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "numforecasters": 22, @@ -2572,7 +2612,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2596,7 +2636,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2620,7 +2660,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2644,7 +2684,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2668,7 +2708,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2692,7 +2732,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2716,7 +2756,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2740,7 +2780,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.636Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 21, @@ -2764,7 +2804,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - 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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4348,7 +4388,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 20, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4372,7 +4412,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4396,7 +4436,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4420,7 +4460,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4444,7 +4484,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4468,7 +4508,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4492,7 +4532,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4516,7 +4556,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4540,7 +4580,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4564,7 +4604,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4588,7 +4628,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 15, @@ -4612,7 +4652,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "numforecasters": 14, @@ -4636,7 +4676,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 14, @@ -4660,7 +4700,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "numforecasters": 14, @@ -4684,7 +4724,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - 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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5188,7 +5228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5212,7 +5252,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5236,7 +5276,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5260,7 +5300,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5284,7 +5324,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - 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"timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5428,7 +5468,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5452,7 +5492,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5476,7 +5516,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5500,7 +5540,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5524,7 +5564,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5548,7 +5588,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5572,7 +5612,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5596,7 +5636,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5620,7 +5660,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5644,7 +5684,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5668,7 +5708,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5692,7 +5732,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5716,7 +5756,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5740,7 +5780,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5764,7 +5804,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5788,7 +5828,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5812,7 +5852,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5836,7 +5876,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5860,7 +5900,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 13, @@ -5884,7 +5924,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5908,7 +5948,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5932,7 +5972,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5956,7 +5996,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -5980,7 +6020,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6004,7 +6044,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6028,7 +6068,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6052,7 +6092,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6076,7 +6116,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6100,7 +6140,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6124,7 +6164,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6148,7 +6188,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6172,7 +6212,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6196,7 +6236,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6220,7 +6260,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6244,7 +6284,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6268,7 +6308,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6292,7 +6332,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6316,7 +6356,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6340,7 +6380,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6364,7 +6404,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6388,7 +6428,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6412,7 +6452,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6436,7 +6476,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6460,7 +6500,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6484,7 +6524,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6508,7 +6548,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6532,7 +6572,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6556,7 +6596,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6580,7 +6620,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 12, @@ -6604,7 +6644,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6628,7 +6668,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6652,7 +6692,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6676,7 +6716,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6700,7 +6740,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6724,7 +6764,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6748,7 +6788,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 22, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6772,7 +6812,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6796,7 +6836,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6820,7 +6860,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6844,7 +6884,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6868,7 +6908,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6892,7 +6932,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6916,7 +6956,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6940,7 +6980,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6964,7 +7004,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -6988,7 +7028,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7012,7 +7052,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7036,7 +7076,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7060,7 +7100,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7084,7 +7124,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7108,7 +7148,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7132,7 +7172,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7156,7 +7196,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7180,7 +7220,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7204,7 +7244,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7228,7 +7268,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7252,7 +7292,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7276,7 +7316,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7300,7 +7340,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7324,7 +7364,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7348,7 +7388,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7372,7 +7412,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7396,7 +7436,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7420,7 +7460,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7444,7 +7484,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7468,7 +7508,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7492,7 +7532,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7516,7 +7556,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7540,7 +7580,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7564,7 +7604,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7588,7 +7628,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7612,7 +7652,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7636,7 +7676,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7660,7 +7700,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7684,7 +7724,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7708,7 +7748,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7732,7 +7772,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7756,7 +7796,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7780,7 +7820,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7804,7 +7844,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7828,7 +7868,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7852,7 +7892,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7876,7 +7916,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 11, @@ -7900,7 +7940,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -7924,7 +7964,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -7948,7 +7988,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -7972,7 +8012,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -7996,7 +8036,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8020,7 +8060,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8044,7 +8084,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8068,7 +8108,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8092,7 +8132,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8116,7 +8156,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8140,7 +8180,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8164,7 +8204,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8188,7 +8228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8212,7 +8252,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8236,7 +8276,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8260,7 +8300,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8284,7 +8324,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8308,7 +8348,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8332,7 +8372,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8356,7 +8396,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8380,7 +8420,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8404,7 +8444,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8428,7 +8468,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8452,7 +8492,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8476,7 +8516,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8500,7 +8540,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8524,7 +8564,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8548,7 +8588,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8572,7 +8612,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8596,7 +8636,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8620,7 +8660,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8644,7 +8684,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8668,7 +8708,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8692,7 +8732,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8716,7 +8756,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8740,7 +8780,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8764,7 +8804,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8788,7 +8828,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8812,7 +8852,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8836,7 +8876,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8860,7 +8900,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8884,7 +8924,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8908,7 +8948,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8932,7 +8972,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8956,7 +8996,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -8980,7 +9020,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -9004,7 +9044,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -9028,7 +9068,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -9052,7 +9092,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -9076,7 +9116,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -9100,7 +9140,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -9124,7 +9164,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:09.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:40.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "numforecasters": 10, @@ -15208,22 +15248,22 @@ "title": "In United States v. Collins, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-collins/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "74.23% (72 out of 97) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "74.75% (74 out of 99) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7422680412371134, + "probability": 0.7474747474747475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25773195876288657, + "probability": 0.2525252525252525, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:10.939Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:41.539Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 99, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -15232,22 +15272,22 @@ "title": "In Jones v. Mississippi, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/jones-v-mississippi/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "33.33% (22 out of 66) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "34.33% (23 out of 67) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3333333333333333, + "probability": 0.34328358208955223, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6666666666666667, + "probability": 0.6567164179104478, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:11.479Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:41.740Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -15269,7 +15309,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:12.028Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "stars": 2 @@ -15293,7 +15333,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:12.683Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.155Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "stars": 2 @@ -15317,7 +15357,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:13.217Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.248Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 2 @@ -15341,7 +15381,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:13.753Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.347Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "stars": 2 @@ -15365,7 +15405,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:14.301Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.465Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "stars": 2 @@ -15389,7 +15429,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:14.847Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.568Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "stars": 2 @@ -15413,7 +15453,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:15.281Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.661Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "stars": 2 @@ -15437,7 +15477,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:15.713Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.794Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 38, "stars": 2 @@ -15461,7 +15501,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:16.147Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:42.949Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "stars": 2 @@ -15485,7 +15525,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:16.680Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.049Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "stars": 2 @@ -15509,7 +15549,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:17.107Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.141Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 2 @@ -15533,7 +15573,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:17.532Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.228Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 2 @@ -15557,7 +15597,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:17.958Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.317Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "stars": 2 @@ -15581,7 +15621,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:18.386Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.399Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "stars": 2 @@ -15605,7 +15645,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:18.809Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.497Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 31, "stars": 2 @@ -15629,7 +15669,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:19.239Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.593Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "stars": 2 @@ -15653,7 +15693,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:19.650Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.741Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 2 @@ -15664,7 +15704,7 @@ "title": "In United States v. Cooley, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-cooley/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 15) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "0.00% (0 out of 16) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -15677,9 +15717,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:20.068Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.867Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 15, + "numforecasts": 16, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -15701,7 +15741,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:20.477Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:43.968Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 2 @@ -15725,7 +15765,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:20.890Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.185Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11, "stars": 2 @@ -15749,7 +15789,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:21.304Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.497Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 2 @@ -15773,7 +15813,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:21.723Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.585Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 13, "stars": 2 @@ -15797,7 +15837,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:22.137Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.700Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 9, "stars": 2 @@ -15821,7 +15861,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:22.546Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.776Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -15832,22 +15872,22 @@ "title": "In Sanchez v. Mayorkas, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/sanchez-v-mayorkas/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "0.00% (0 out of 5) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "30.00% (3 out of 10) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.3, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 1, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:22.957Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.851Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 5, + "numforecasts": 10, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -15869,7 +15909,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:23.367Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:44.922Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -15880,22 +15920,22 @@ "title": "In United States v. Gary, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/united-states-v-gary/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "75.00% (3 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 5-4. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 1, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:23.781Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.001Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, + "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -15917,7 +15957,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:24.189Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.072Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -15941,7 +15981,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:24.597Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.144Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -15965,7 +16005,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:25.006Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.219Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -15989,7 +16029,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:25.413Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -16013,7 +16053,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:25.826Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.391Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16037,7 +16077,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:26.235Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.468Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16061,7 +16101,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:26.648Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.552Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16085,7 +16125,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:27.057Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.623Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16109,7 +16149,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:27.469Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.691Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -16120,7 +16160,7 @@ "title": "In Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L., the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/mahanoy-area-school-district-v-bl/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "100.00% (3 out of 3) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "100.00% (4 out of 4) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Affirm 9-0. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -16133,9 +16173,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:27.878Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.798Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 3, + "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -16157,7 +16197,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:28.294Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 9, "stars": 2 @@ -16181,7 +16221,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:28.712Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:45.968Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 2 @@ -16205,7 +16245,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:29.135Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.046Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "stars": 2 @@ -16229,7 +16269,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:29.712Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.141Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "stars": 2 @@ -16253,7 +16293,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:30.134Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.228Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 2 @@ -16277,7 +16317,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:30.552Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.312Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "stars": 2 @@ -16301,7 +16341,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:30.978Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "stars": 2 @@ -16325,7 +16365,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:31.396Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.551Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 2 @@ -16349,7 +16389,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:31.811Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.628Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "stars": 2 @@ -16373,7 +16413,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:32.225Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.693Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 12, "stars": 2 @@ -16397,7 +16437,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:32.640Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.768Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 2 @@ -16421,7 +16461,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:33.043Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.829Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -16445,7 +16485,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:33.465Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.916Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 22, "stars": 2 @@ -16456,22 +16496,22 @@ "title": "In Arizona Republican Party v. Democratic National Committee, the SCOTUS will affirm the lower court's decision", "url": "https://fantasyscotus.net/user-predictions/case/arizona-republican-party-v-democratic-national-committee/", "platform": "FantasySCOTUS", - "description": "3.57% (1 out of 28) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", + "description": "3.45% (1 out of 29) of FantasySCOTUS players predict that the lower court's decision will be affirmed. FantasySCOTUS overall predicts an outcome of Reverse 6-3. Historically, FantasySCOTUS has chosen the correct side 65.00% of the time.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03571428571428571, + "probability": 0.034482758620689655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9642857142857143, + "probability": 0.9655172413793104, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:33.891Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:46.992Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 28, + "numforecasts": 29, "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -16482,7 +16522,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16495,7 +16535,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16519,7 +16559,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.347Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -16543,7 +16583,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -16556,7 +16596,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16569,7 +16609,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -16593,7 +16633,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16606,7 +16646,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16630,7 +16670,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16654,7 +16694,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 7.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16667,7 +16707,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16680,7 +16720,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.349Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -16693,7 +16733,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.350Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 7, "stars": 2 @@ -16706,7 +16746,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.350Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -16719,7 +16759,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.351Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -16732,7 +16772,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.351Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16745,7 +16785,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16758,7 +16798,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 2 @@ -16771,7 +16811,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.352Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -16784,7 +16824,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.355Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16797,7 +16837,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.355Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -16810,7 +16850,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.356Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 6, "stars": 2 @@ -16823,7 +16863,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.357Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 6.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16847,7 +16887,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.357Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 7, "stars": 2 @@ -16860,7 +16900,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.358Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16884,7 +16924,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.358Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -16897,7 +16937,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.359Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 8, "stars": 2 @@ -16910,7 +16950,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.359Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 7, "stars": 2 @@ -16923,7 +16963,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -16936,7 +16976,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2.5, "stars": 2 @@ -16949,7 +16989,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -16962,7 +17002,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -16975,7 +17015,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -16988,7 +17028,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17001,7 +17041,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -17025,7 +17065,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17049,7 +17089,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17073,7 +17113,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17097,7 +17137,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17121,7 +17161,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17145,7 +17185,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17169,7 +17209,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17193,7 +17233,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17206,7 +17246,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 6, "stars": 2 @@ -17219,7 +17259,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -17232,7 +17272,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17256,7 +17296,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -17269,7 +17309,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17293,7 +17333,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 6, "stars": 2 @@ -17317,7 +17357,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17341,7 +17381,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -17365,7 +17405,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.858Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 8, "stars": 2 @@ -17378,7 +17418,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "stars": 2 @@ -17402,7 +17442,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 9.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17415,7 +17455,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "stars": 2 @@ -17428,7 +17468,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 49.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17441,7 +17481,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:35.859Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17454,7 +17494,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.502Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -17467,7 +17507,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.502Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -17480,7 +17520,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17493,7 +17533,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -17506,7 +17546,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17519,7 +17559,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17532,7 +17572,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.504Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17545,7 +17585,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.504Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17558,7 +17598,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.504Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17571,7 +17611,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17584,7 +17624,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17597,7 +17637,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17610,7 +17650,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:36.505Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17623,7 +17663,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.094Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 6.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17636,7 +17676,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.094Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -17649,7 +17689,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.094Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -17673,7 +17713,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.095Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17697,7 +17737,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.095Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17710,7 +17750,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.095Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17734,7 +17774,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 7, "stars": 2 @@ -17758,7 +17798,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 9.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17782,7 +17822,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2, "stars": 2 @@ -17806,7 +17846,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17819,7 +17859,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17843,7 +17883,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17867,7 +17907,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17891,7 +17931,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.096Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17904,7 +17944,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 4, "stars": 2 @@ -17928,7 +17968,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -17952,7 +17992,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 11.5, "stars": 2 @@ -17976,7 +18016,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5, "stars": 2 @@ -17989,7 +18029,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -18002,7 +18042,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1, "stars": 2 @@ -18015,7 +18055,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.098Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -18028,7 +18068,7 @@ "platform": "Foretold", "description": "", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:37.098Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:47.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 3, "stars": 2 @@ -21792,12 +21832,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, to less than $10.00", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, to $10.00 or more, but less than $15.00", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21807,11 +21847,11 @@ }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:50.772Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -21825,7 +21865,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 4.0%", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21835,21 +21875,21 @@ }, { "name": "More than 5.0% but less than 6.0%", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 6.0% and 7.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:50.772Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -21887,7 +21927,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:50.773Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -21906,12 +21946,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0.87, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.51, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21925,7 +21965,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:50.773Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -21963,7 +22003,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:38.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:50.773Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -21977,12 +22017,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 23%", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 23% and 27%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.66, + "probability": 0.67, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -21991,7 +22031,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:52.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -22010,17 +22050,17 @@ }, { "name": "Lower by between 4% and 8%, inclusive ", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lower by more than 0% but less than 4% ", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 4%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.81, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22029,7 +22069,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:52.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -22048,16 +22088,16 @@ }, { "name": "Higher by between 0% and 100%", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher by more than 100%", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:52.485Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -22095,7 +22135,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:52.485Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -22114,12 +22154,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 10% but less than 20%", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.71, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 20% and 30%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22128,7 +22168,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:40.605Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:52.485Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 4 }, @@ -22147,17 +22187,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22186,10 +22226,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:45.150Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:02:57.671Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "19", - "numforecasters": "12", + "numforecasts": "31", + "numforecasters": "20", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 1,500, Between 1,500 and 3,000, inclusive, More than 3,000 but fewer than 4,500, Between 4,500 and 6,000, inclusive, More than 6,000 but fewer than 7,500, Between 7,500 and 9,000 inclusive, More than 9,000 but fewer than 10,500, Between 10,500 and 12,000 inclusive, More than 12,000" @@ -22217,12 +22257,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22246,10 +22286,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:48.783Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:01.136Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "13", - "numforecasters": "10", + "numforecasts": "26", + "numforecasters": "18", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, Between 350,000 and 450,000, inclusive, More than 450,000 but fewer than 550,000, Between 550,000 and 650,000, inclusive, More than 650,000 but fewer than 750,000, Between 750,000 and 850,000, inclusive, More than 850,000" @@ -22272,17 +22312,17 @@ }, { "name": "More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22296,10 +22336,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:52.477Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:04.046Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "8", - "numforecasters": "8", + "numforecasts": "18", + "numforecasters": "16", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 85,000,000, Between 85,000,000 and 95,000,000, inclusive, More than 95,000,000 but fewer than 105,000,000, Between 105,000,000 and 115,000,000, inclusive, More than 115,000,000 but fewer than 125,000,000, Between 125,000,000 and 135,000,000, inclusive, More than 135,000,000" @@ -22327,12 +22367,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive", - "probability": 1, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22356,10 +22396,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:51:56.732Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:07.544Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "9", - "numforecasters": "7", + "numforecasts": "15", + "numforecasters": "12", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 15,000, Between 15,000 and 25,000, inclusive, More than 25,000 but fewer than 35,000, Between 35,000 and 45,000, inclusive, More than 45,000 but fewer than 55,000, Between 55,000 and 65,000, inclusive, More than 65,000 but fewer than 75,000, Between 75,000 and 85,000, inclusive, More than 85,000" @@ -22387,17 +22427,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22406,10 +22446,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:00.152Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:10.831Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "11", - "numforecasters": "10", + "numforecasts": "24", + "numforecasters": "18", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 130,000,000, Between 130,000,000 and 140,000,000, inclusive, More than 140,000,000 but fewer than 150,000,000, Between 150,000,000 and 160,000,000, inclusive, More than 160,000,000 but fewer than 170,000,000, Between 170,000,000 and 180,000,000, inclusive, More than 180,000,000" @@ -22422,19 +22462,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:03.206Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:13.238Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "94", - "numforecasters": "80", + "numforecasts": "102", + "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22447,19 +22487,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.93, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:06.446Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:15.320Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "114", - "numforecasters": "100", + "numforecasts": "123", + "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22472,19 +22512,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.68, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:08.814Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:17.693Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "52", - "numforecasters": "41", + "numforecasts": "60", + "numforecasters": "44", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22497,19 +22537,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:11.333Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:19.985Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "179", - "numforecasters": "144", + "numforecasts": "186", + "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22522,19 +22562,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:14.465Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:22.329Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "110", - "numforecasters": "81", + "numforecasts": "113", + "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22547,7 +22587,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22562,7 +22602,7 @@ }, { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22571,9 +22611,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:17.769Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:24.970Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "148", + "numforecasts": "153", "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, @@ -22606,7 +22646,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:21.161Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:27.969Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "57", "numforecasters": "41", @@ -22636,7 +22676,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:23.915Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:30.450Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "89", "numforecasters": "74", @@ -22657,29 +22697,29 @@ }, { "name": "Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 110.0 but less than 120.0", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 130.0", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:27.328Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:33.531Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "64", - "numforecasters": "43", + "numforecasts": "71", + "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 100.0, Between 100.0 and 110.0, inclusive, More than 110.0 but less than 120.0, Between 120.0 and 130.0, inclusive, More than 130.0" @@ -22697,17 +22737,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1.7% and 2.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.18, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Higher than 2.1% but lower than 2.7%", - "probability": 0.56, + "probability": 0.54, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.7% and 3.1%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22716,9 +22756,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:30.433Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:36.466Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "141", + "numforecasts": "144", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -22737,7 +22777,7 @@ }, { "name": "Judas and the Black Messiah", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22747,17 +22787,17 @@ }, { "name": "Minari", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nomadland", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22776,10 +22816,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:34.368Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:40.080Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "126", - "numforecasters": "79", + "numforecasts": "130", + "numforecasters": "80", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "The Father, Judas and the Black Messiah, Mank, Minari, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Sound of Metal, The Trial of the Chicago 7, A tie or other outcome" @@ -22807,12 +22847,12 @@ }, { "name": "Nomadland (Chloé Zhao)", - "probability": 0.73, + "probability": 0.74, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Promising Young Woman (Emerald Fennell)", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22821,9 +22861,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:37.553Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:43.565Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "92", + "numforecasts": "95", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, @@ -22837,19 +22877,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:40.618Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:45.488Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "149", - "numforecasters": "99", + "numforecasts": "152", + "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22872,23 +22912,23 @@ }, { "name": "More than 16.0 million but fewer than 17.5 million", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.13, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 17.5 million and 19.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 19.0 million", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:43.717Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:48.029Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "342", + "numforecasts": "350", "numforecasters": "176", "stars": 3 }, @@ -22912,7 +22952,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $35 billion but less than $45 billion", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22922,7 +22962,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than $55 billion", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -22931,9 +22971,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:46.957Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:03:51.241Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "154", + "numforecasts": "158", "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, @@ -22956,10 +22996,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:52:55.833Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:00.934Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "141", - "numforecasters": "92", + "numforecasts": "146", + "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -22987,12 +23027,12 @@ }, { "name": "Between $125 billion and $150 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $150 billion", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23001,9 +23041,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:00.606Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:03.938Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "90", + "numforecasts": "91", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23022,12 +23062,12 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, only launch an ICBM", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.34, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, both", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23036,9 +23076,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:04.066Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:06.364Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "212", + "numforecasts": "214", "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23061,9 +23101,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:05.858Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:08.816Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "82", + "numforecasts": "83", "numforecasters": "48", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23106,9 +23146,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:08.856Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:11.777Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "261", + "numforecasts": "269", "numforecasters": "86", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23122,19 +23162,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:11.563Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:14.078Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "171", - "numforecasters": "97", + "numforecasts": "174", + "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -23161,9 +23201,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:14.853Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:16.751Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "93", + "numforecasts": "95", "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23177,18 +23217,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.38, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.62, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:17.339Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:19.336Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "635", + "numforecasts": "642", "numforecasters": "414", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23207,28 +23247,28 @@ }, { "name": "Between 4 and 8", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 9 and 13", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 14 and 18", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 18", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:21.085Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:22.340Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "482", + "numforecasts": "488", "numforecasters": "290", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23251,9 +23291,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:23.994Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:24.726Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "495", + "numforecasts": "502", "numforecasters": "384", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23267,18 +23307,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.36, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.64, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:26.268Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:26.882Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "290", + "numforecasts": "293", "numforecasters": "218", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23297,29 +23337,29 @@ }, { "name": "Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 14,000,000", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:29.706Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:29.250Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "373", - "numforecasters": "224", + "numforecasts": "387", + "numforecasters": "226", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 8,000,000, Between 8,000,000 and 10,000,000, inclusive, More than 10,000,000 but fewer than 12,000,000, Between 12,000,000 and 14,000,000, inclusive, More than 14,000,000" @@ -23356,9 +23396,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:32.328Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:32.382Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "99", "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23396,9 +23436,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:35.441Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:35.114Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "242", + "numforecasts": "246", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23422,12 +23462,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.500 but less than 2.000", - "probability": 0.57, + "probability": 0.59, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 2.000 and 2.500, inclusive", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23436,9 +23476,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:39.121Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:38.193Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "199", + "numforecasts": "203", "numforecasters": "63", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23466,9 +23506,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:42.144Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:40.647Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "157", + "numforecasts": "158", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23496,10 +23536,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:45.072Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:43.391Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "669", - "numforecasters": "396", + "numforecasts": "680", + "numforecasters": "398", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bitcoin will have a price of $25,000 or less, Bitcoin will have a price of $100,000 or more, Neither will occur before 1 July 2021" @@ -23521,9 +23561,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:47.972Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:45.730Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "99", + "numforecasts": "100", "numforecasters": "54", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23537,18 +23577,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.91, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:50.192Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:48.371Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "233", + "numforecasts": "235", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23562,18 +23602,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:53:52.470Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:50.425Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "268", + "numforecasts": "273", "numforecasters": "84", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23587,19 +23627,19 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.97, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:01.617Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:04:59.440Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "106", - "numforecasters": "58", + "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -23621,9 +23661,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:07.652Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:01.452Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "302", + "numforecasts": "303", "numforecasters": "132", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23646,10 +23686,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:10.638Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:03.535Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "215", - "numforecasters": "154", + "numforecasts": "218", + "numforecasters": "155", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -23681,9 +23721,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:13.899Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:05.869Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "202", + "numforecasts": "205", "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23706,9 +23746,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:16.837Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:08.340Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "190", + "numforecasts": "191", "numforecasters": "95", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23727,12 +23767,12 @@ }, { "name": "Los Angeles Clippers", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Los Angeles Lakers", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23742,7 +23782,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another team", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23751,10 +23791,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:20.179Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:11.069Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "172", - "numforecasters": "57", + "numforecasts": "176", + "numforecasters": "59", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Brooklyn Nets, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks, Another team, There will not be a 2021 NBA Championship" @@ -23776,9 +23816,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:22.688Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:12.911Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "179", + "numforecasts": "181", "numforecasters": "93", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23801,9 +23841,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:24.873Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:15.281Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "136", + "numforecasts": "139", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23826,9 +23866,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:28.160Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:17.656Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "340", + "numforecasts": "341", "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23861,9 +23901,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:31.407Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:20.915Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "285", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23882,17 +23922,17 @@ }, { "name": "Between $200 million and $500 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.39, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than $500 million but less than $1 billion", - "probability": 0.58, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $1 billion and $1.75 billion, inclusive", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -23901,9 +23941,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:34.153Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:23.616Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "193", + "numforecasts": "195", "numforecasters": "87", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23917,18 +23957,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:37.091Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:26.037Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "116", + "numforecasts": "119", "numforecasters": "64", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23956,9 +23996,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:39.952Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:28.783Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "108", + "numforecasts": "112", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -23981,9 +24021,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:42.739Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:31.409Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "259", + "numforecasts": "260", "numforecasters": "91", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24006,9 +24046,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:45.761Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:33.911Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "177", + "numforecasts": "184", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24018,7 +24058,7 @@ "title": "Will U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin hold a bilateral meeting in 2021?", "url": "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1911-will-u-s-president-joe-biden-and-russian-president-vladimir-putin-hold-a-bilateral-meeting-in-2021", "platform": "Good Judgment Open", - "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#9bf8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5e8dbfcf4f4fff1eefffcf6fef5efb5f8f4f6a4e8eef9f1fef8efa6caeefee8eff2f4f5bea9abd8f7fae9f2fdf2f8faeff2f4f5). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", + "description": "The world is watching how U.S.-Russia relations will evolve under President Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). For the purposes of this question, a bilateral meeting would be a pre-planned summit or event, rather than, e.g., a one-on-one on the sidelines of a multilateral meeting. A virtual meeting would not count.\nTo learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, [see here](https://goodjudgment.com/how-to-become-a-superforecaster/). For other posts from our Insights blog, [click here](https://goodjudgment.com/insights/).\nVersión en Español:\nPregunta: ¿Celebrarán el presidente de los Estados Unidos, Joe Biden, y el presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin, una reunión bilateral en 2021?\nInformación adicional: El mundo está observando cómo evolucionarán las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Rusia bajo el presidente Biden ([NPR](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/21/948736756/putin-and-biden-signal-chilly-relations-to-come), [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/17/biden-national-security-advisor-calls-for-russia-to-release-navalny.html), [New Statesman](https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/12/what-will-joe-biden-bring-us-russia-relationship)). A los efectos de esta pregunta, una reunión bilateral sería una cumbre o evento planificado previamente, en lugar de, por ejemplo, un \"uno a uno\" al margen de una reunión multilateral. Una reunión virtual no contaría a efectos de esta pregunta.\nSi tiene alguna duda o pregunta, por favor lea nuestras Preguntas Frecuentes ([FAQs](https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question)) o envíenos un [correo electrónico](/cdn-cgi/l/email-protection#14777875667d727d7775607d7b7a6754737b7b707e61707379717a603a777b792b6761767e7177602945617167607d7b7a312624577875667d727d7775607d7b7a). Para aprender más sobre Good Judgment y Superpronósticos (Superforecasting), por favor [clique aquí](https://goodjudgment.com/).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -24031,9 +24071,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:48.713Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:35.777Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "431", + "numforecasts": "432", "numforecasters": "204", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24071,9 +24111,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:52.356Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:37.921Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "507", + "numforecasts": "513", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24096,9 +24136,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:54.536Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:39.616Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "181", + "numforecasts": "183", "numforecasters": "120", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24121,9 +24161,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:54:56.862Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:41.374Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "355", + "numforecasts": "361", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24146,7 +24186,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:06.383Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:49.152Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "96", "numforecasters": "52", @@ -24181,9 +24221,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:09.481Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:52.165Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "211", + "numforecasts": "213", "numforecasters": "99", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24211,7 +24251,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:12.894Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:54.377Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "87", "numforecasters": "40", @@ -24241,9 +24281,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:16.128Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:05:57.037Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "277", + "numforecasts": "279", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24266,9 +24306,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:18.730Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:00.898Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "123", + "numforecasts": "124", "numforecasters": "47", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24306,7 +24346,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:21.738Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:03.832Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "267", "numforecasters": "71", @@ -24331,9 +24371,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:24.418Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:06.150Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "205", + "numforecasts": "206", "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24361,9 +24401,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:27.207Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:08.746Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "142", + "numforecasts": "143", "numforecasters": "75", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24377,18 +24417,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:29.952Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:11.384Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "310", + "numforecasts": "322", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24411,9 +24451,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:32.907Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:13.764Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "284", + "numforecasts": "286", "numforecasters": "96", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24436,9 +24476,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:35.868Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:15.844Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "116", + "numforecasts": "117", "numforecasters": "37", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24466,9 +24506,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:38.903Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:18.365Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "202", + "numforecasts": "203", "numforecasters": "71", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24496,7 +24536,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:42.102Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:20.670Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "219", "numforecasters": "109", @@ -24536,9 +24576,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:45.708Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:23.107Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "314", + "numforecasts": "315", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24561,9 +24601,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:48.084Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:24.998Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "242", + "numforecasts": "243", "numforecasters": "89", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24591,10 +24631,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:51.032Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:27.318Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "130", - "numforecasters": "87", + "numforecasts": "131", + "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Lower, Same, Higher" @@ -24607,18 +24647,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:55.043Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:29.314Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "184", + "numforecasts": "186", "numforecasters": "83", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24632,18 +24672,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.8, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:55:58.001Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:31.831Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "288", + "numforecasts": "293", "numforecasters": "68", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24657,23 +24697,23 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, and the EU will ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yes, and the EU will not ratify it before 1 January 2022", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:00.663Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:34.623Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "523", + "numforecasts": "527", "numforecasters": "199", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24706,9 +24746,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:03.704Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:37.266Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "482", + "numforecasts": "485", "numforecasters": "220", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24731,9 +24771,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:12.625Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:45.034Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "293", + "numforecasts": "295", "numforecasters": "148", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24756,9 +24796,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:15.614Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:47.468Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "396", + "numforecasts": "398", "numforecasters": "233", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24772,18 +24812,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:17.809Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:49.490Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "323", + "numforecasts": "325", "numforecasters": "107", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24816,9 +24856,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:20.490Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:51.825Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "376", + "numforecasts": "378", "numforecasters": "106", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24841,9 +24881,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:22.907Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:54.056Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "265", + "numforecasts": "268", "numforecasters": "128", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24881,9 +24921,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:25.943Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:57.050Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "304", + "numforecasts": "308", "numforecasters": "102", "stars": 3 }, @@ -24906,7 +24946,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:28.317Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:06:59.540Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "92", "numforecasters": "45", @@ -24931,10 +24971,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:31.313Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:01.690Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "436", - "numforecasters": "218", + "numforecasts": "438", + "numforecasters": "219", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -24956,7 +24996,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:33.990Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:04.385Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "125", "numforecasters": "63", @@ -24981,9 +25021,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:36.896Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:06.050Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "98", + "numforecasts": "101", "numforecasters": "34", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25007,12 +25047,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than $2.50 but less than $3.00", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between $3.00 and $3.50, inclusive", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25021,9 +25061,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:40.494Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:09.282Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "308", + "numforecasts": "309", "numforecasters": "45", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25056,9 +25096,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:43.240Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:12.563Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "150", + "numforecasts": "151", "numforecasters": "31", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25072,7 +25112,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "A candidate from Acción Popular (Popular Action)", - "probability": 0.34, + "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25092,7 +25132,7 @@ }, { "name": "Another candidate", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25101,9 +25141,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:46.731Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:15.899Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "247", + "numforecasts": "253", "numforecasters": "88", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25117,18 +25157,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.17, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.83, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:49.727Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:17.995Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "676", + "numforecasts": "681", "numforecasters": "216", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25147,29 +25187,29 @@ }, { "name": "Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.41, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 8.0%", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:52.498Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:20.899Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "608", - "numforecasters": "260", + "numforecasts": "611", + "numforecasters": "261", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 5.0%, Between 5.0% and 6.0%, inclusive, More than 6.0% but less than 7.0%, Between 7.0% and 8.0%, inclusive, More than 8.0%" @@ -25192,19 +25232,19 @@ }, { "name": "More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "350,000 or more", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:55.704Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:23.819Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "569", - "numforecasters": "223", + "numforecasts": "574", + "numforecasters": "224", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Fewer than 150,000, Between 150,000 and 250,000, inclusive, More than 250,000 but fewer than 350,000, 350,000 or more" @@ -25226,9 +25266,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:56:58.679Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:26.193Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "380", + "numforecasts": "382", "numforecasters": "213", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25251,9 +25291,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:00.879Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:28.214Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "251", + "numforecasts": "253", "numforecasters": "129", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25276,9 +25316,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:03.039Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:31.621Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "355", + "numforecasts": "357", "numforecasters": "190", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25301,10 +25341,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:06.058Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:33.954Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "365", - "numforecasters": "172", + "numforecasts": "367", + "numforecasters": "173", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -25327,24 +25367,24 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.36, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:16.004Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:43.638Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "393", - "numforecasters": "93", + "numforecasts": "403", + "numforecasters": "94", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 1 January 2021, Between 1 January 2021 and 28 February 2021, Between 1 March 2021 and 30 April 2021, Between 1 May 2021 and 30 June 2021, Not before 1 July 2021" @@ -25366,10 +25406,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:18.645Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:46.260Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "265", - "numforecasters": "67", + "numforecasts": "267", + "numforecasters": "69", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -25391,10 +25431,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:21.432Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:48.421Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "347", - "numforecasters": "179", + "numforecasts": "348", + "numforecasters": "180", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -25416,7 +25456,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:23.981Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:50.335Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "284", "numforecasters": "111", @@ -25456,10 +25496,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:27.292Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:52.898Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "1570", - "numforecasters": "242", + "numforecasts": "1574", + "numforecasters": "243", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "3, 4, 5 or 6, 7 or 8, 9 or more" @@ -25481,10 +25521,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:30.405Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:54.683Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "331", - "numforecasters": "75", + "numforecasts": "334", + "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -25497,18 +25537,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, + "probability": 1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:32.241Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:07:57.424Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "217", + "numforecasts": "219", "numforecasters": "65", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25546,7 +25586,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:35.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:00.286Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "165", "numforecasters": "45", @@ -25571,9 +25611,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:38.005Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:02.763Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "144", + "numforecasts": "146", "numforecasters": "56", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25611,9 +25651,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:40.888Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:05.146Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "614", + "numforecasts": "616", "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25636,10 +25676,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:43.775Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:06.862Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "815", - "numforecasters": "159", + "numforecasts": "822", + "numforecasters": "160", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -25652,7 +25692,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.00%", - "probability": 0.44, + "probability": 0.45, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25662,7 +25702,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 4.00% but less than 6.00%", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25676,9 +25716,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:47.020Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:09.262Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "580", + "numforecasts": "585", "numforecasters": "249", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25702,7 +25742,7 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25712,14 +25752,14 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1.6 million", - "probability": 0.43, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:51.103Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:12.460Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "537", - "numforecasters": "96", + "numforecasts": "542", + "numforecasters": "97", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 1.0 million, Between 1.0 million and 1.2 million, inclusive, More than 1.2 million but less than 1.4 million, Between 1.4 million and 1.6 million, inclusive, More than 1.6 million" @@ -25741,9 +25781,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:54.209Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:14.969Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "223", + "numforecasts": "225", "numforecasters": "66", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25766,9 +25806,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:57:56.974Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:16.667Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "438", + "numforecasts": "441", "numforecasters": "165", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25782,7 +25822,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "England", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.46, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25792,7 +25832,7 @@ }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.29, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25802,7 +25842,7 @@ }, { "name": "Spain", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25816,9 +25856,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:00.566Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:20.346Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "432", + "numforecasts": "436", "numforecasters": "117", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25856,10 +25896,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:03.492Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:23.761Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "731", - "numforecasters": "210", + "numforecasts": "734", + "numforecasters": "211", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Before 19 October 2020, Between 19 October 2020 and 31 December 2020, Between 1 January 2021 and 15 March 2021, Between 16 March 2021 and 23 May 2021, Not before 24 May 2021" @@ -25881,9 +25921,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:05.702Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:26.373Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "1241", + "numforecasts": "1243", "numforecasters": "467", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25906,9 +25946,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:08.774Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:28.444Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "401", + "numforecasts": "403", "numforecasters": "164", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25931,10 +25971,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:11.511Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:30.835Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "358", - "numforecasters": "162", + "numforecasts": "360", + "numforecasters": "163", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -25956,9 +25996,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:20.352Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:39.335Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "770", + "numforecasts": "771", "numforecasters": "170", "stars": 3 }, @@ -25982,7 +26022,7 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -25992,13 +26032,13 @@ }, { "name": "Not before 1 October 2021", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:25.629Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:41.630Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "939", + "numforecasts": "945", "numforecasters": "171", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26021,9 +26061,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:28.049Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:43.685Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "338", + "numforecasts": "339", "numforecasters": "77", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26046,9 +26086,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:30.975Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:46.469Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "693", + "numforecasts": "695", "numforecasters": "195", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26086,10 +26126,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:33.982Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:49.494Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "487", - "numforecasters": "100", + "numforecasts": "489", + "numforecasters": "101", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "2 or fewer, 3, 4, 5, 6 or more" @@ -26102,12 +26142,12 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 25,000", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.66, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 25,000 and 100,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.31, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26126,9 +26166,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:37.641Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:52.578Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "392", + "numforecasts": "394", "numforecasters": "127", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26142,7 +26182,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes, only to deliver a package but not for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26152,18 +26192,18 @@ }, { "name": "Yes, both to deliver a package and for a public ride-hailing service", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:41.338Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:55.178Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "332", + "numforecasts": "336", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26177,22 +26217,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "0", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1 or 2", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.61, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3 or 4", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5 or 6", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26201,10 +26241,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:44.811Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:08:57.750Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "297", - "numforecasters": "84", + "numforecasts": "300", + "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "0, 1 or 2, 3 or 4, 5 or 6, 7 or more" @@ -26227,18 +26267,18 @@ }, { "name": "Between 1 April 2021 and 30 June 2021", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.09, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not before 1 July 2021", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.91, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:47.860Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:00.694Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "963", + "numforecasts": "969", "numforecasters": "336", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26261,9 +26301,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:51.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:02.939Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "306", + "numforecasts": "307", "numforecasters": "140", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26286,9 +26326,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:54.405Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:04.999Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "695", + "numforecasts": "697", "numforecasters": "147", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26321,9 +26361,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:58:56.974Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:08.134Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "262", + "numforecasts": "263", "numforecasters": "100", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26352,18 +26392,18 @@ }, { "name": "Between 3.4 million and 4.0 million, inclusive", - "probability": 0.48, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "More than 4.0 million", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:00.684Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:10.633Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "278", + "numforecasts": "279", "numforecasters": "61", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26401,9 +26441,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:04.194Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:13.728Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "248", + "numforecasts": "249", "numforecasters": "49", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26436,10 +26476,10 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:07.243Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:16.709Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "2413", - "numforecasters": "976", + "numforecasts": "2428", + "numforecasters": "982", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, the Olympics only, Yes, the Paralympics only, Yes, both, No" @@ -26461,9 +26501,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:10.005Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:18.491Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "252", + "numforecasts": "254", "numforecasters": "114", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26487,12 +26527,12 @@ }, { "name": "More than 1,200,000 but fewer than 1,700,000", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Between 1,700,000 and 2,200,000, inclusive", - "probability": 0.49, + "probability": 0.48, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -26501,9 +26541,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:13.379Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:21.734Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "315", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "85", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26541,9 +26581,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:15.799Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:24.436Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "292", + "numforecasts": "293", "numforecasters": "78", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26576,7 +26616,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:18.894Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:27.441Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "407", "numforecasters": "224", @@ -26601,9 +26641,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:28.273Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:35.539Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "196", + "numforecasts": "198", "numforecasters": "90", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26641,9 +26681,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:31.612Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:38.050Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "297", + "numforecasts": "299", "numforecasters": "98", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26681,9 +26721,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:34.320Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:40.749Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "456", + "numforecasts": "457", "numforecasters": "153", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26706,7 +26746,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:36.922Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:43.205Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": "273", "numforecasters": "98", @@ -26731,9 +26771,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:39.978Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:45.892Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "315", + "numforecasts": "316", "numforecasters": "136", "stars": 3 }, @@ -26747,16 +26787,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04901960784313725, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9509803921568627, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:50.562Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:56.345Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26779,7 +26819,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:50.562Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:56.345Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26802,7 +26842,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:50.562Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:56.345Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26825,7 +26865,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:50.562Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:56.345Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26839,61 +26879,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.03809523809523809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pierre de Villiers", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.028571428571428567, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": 0.14150943396226415, + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.5471698113207547, + "probability": 0.5523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Valérie Pécresse", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Piolle", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another woman", - "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Another man", - "probability": 0.14150943396226415, + "probability": 0.14285714285714285, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.796Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.483Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26926,7 +26966,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.796Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.483Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26949,7 +26989,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.796Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -26963,21 +27003,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In June, 2021 (as planned)", - "probability": 0.8640776699029127, + "probability": 0.8557692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Later in 2021", - "probability": 0.1262135922330097, + "probability": 0.1346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not in 2021", - "probability": 0.00970873786407767, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.796Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27005,7 +27045,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.796Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27039,7 +27079,7 @@ }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -27049,21 +27089,21 @@ }, { "name": "May 2021", - "probability": 0.16161616161616163, + "probability": 0.15151515151515152, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "June 2021", - "probability": 0.22222222222222224, + "probability": 0.30303030303030304, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe after June 2021", - "probability": 0.6060606060606061, + "probability": 0.5353535353535354, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.797Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27077,31 +27117,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "In May or earlier", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in June (government goal)", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.676470588235294, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in July", - "probability": 0.21, + "probability": 0.2549019607843137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "in August", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.02941176470588235, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:54.797Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:09:58.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27124,7 +27164,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.166Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.362Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27157,7 +27197,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.362Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27185,7 +27225,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.362Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27208,7 +27248,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27222,16 +27262,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4251968503937008, + "probability": 0.41129032258064513, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5748031496062993, + "probability": 0.5887096774193548, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27269,7 +27309,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27312,7 +27352,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.367Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27350,7 +27390,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T09:59:59.167Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:02.367Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27369,26 +27409,26 @@ }, { "name": "Q2, 2021", - "probability": 0.29292929292929293, + "probability": 0.3269230769230769, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q3, 2021", - "probability": 0.4141414141414142, + "probability": 0.3942307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Q4, 2021", - "probability": 0.16161616161616163, + "probability": 0.15384615384615385, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maybe later", - "probability": 0.13131313131313133, + "probability": 0.125, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:02.393Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:05.213Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27416,7 +27456,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:02.393Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:05.213Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27430,21 +27470,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Worse than the 2012 record", - "probability": 0.2277227722772277, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Worse than 2020, but not worse than 2012", - "probability": 0.297029702970297, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Not worse than 2020", - "probability": 0.4752475247524752, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:02.393Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:05.213Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27487,7 +27527,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:02.393Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:05.214Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27525,7 +27565,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:02.394Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:05.214Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27558,7 +27598,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:06.153Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:09.335Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27572,26 +27612,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "USA", - "probability": 0.9207920792079207, + "probability": 0.9411764705882352, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "France", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Germany", - "probability": 0.009900990099009901, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "United Kingdom", - "probability": 0.0594059405940594, + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:06.153Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:09.338Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27614,7 +27654,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:15.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:15.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27637,7 +27677,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:15.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:15.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27651,16 +27691,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9509803921568627, + "probability": 0.9514563106796117, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.04901960784313725, + "probability": 0.04854368932038835, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:15.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:15.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -27683,7 +27723,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:15.109Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:15.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -28209,7 +28249,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.863Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28442,7 +28482,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28565,7 +28605,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28593,7 +28633,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28661,7 +28701,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28709,7 +28749,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28807,7 +28847,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28840,7 +28880,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28873,7 +28913,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -28931,7 +28971,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - 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"probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Pennycook", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jess Phillips", - "probability": 0.01575242983192941, + "probability": 0.0156293298708739, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bridget Phillipson", - "probability": 0.01575242983192941, + "probability": 0.02344399480631085, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Powell", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ellie Reeves", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Reynolds", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Russell-Moyle", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wes Streeting", - "probability": 0.01575242983192941, + "probability": 0.0156293298708739, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tony Blair", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nadia Whittome", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Angela Eagle", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Helen Hayes", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Foxcroft", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bell Ribeiro-Addy", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Preet Gill", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rosena Allin-Khan", - "probability": 0.038255901020399996, + "probability": 0.03795694397212233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nick Thomas-Symonds", - "probability": 0.038255901020399996, + "probability": 0.03795694397212233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Trickett", - "probability": 0.007954197241865345, + "probability": 0.007892037855589791, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John McDonnell", - "probability": 0.01575242983192941, + "probability": 0.0156293298708739, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29266,26 +29306,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.22909090909090907, + "probability": 0.18777943368107303, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.1309090909090909, + "probability": 0.15648286140089418, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.1309090909090909, + "probability": 0.13412816691505217, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.509090909090909, + "probability": 0.5216095380029806, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29608,7 +29648,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29622,40 +29662,45 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Cooper (Green)", - "probability": 0.009070561903640004, + "probability": 0.008989026383376137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party)", - "probability": 0.009070561903640004, + "probability": 0.008989026383376137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Stewart Golton (LD)", - "probability": 0.009070561903640004, + "probability": 0.008989026383376137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tracy Brabin (Lab)", - "probability": 0.8328425020614912, + "probability": 0.8253560588372635, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Robinson (Cons)", - "probability": 0.13087525032394862, + "probability": 0.1296988092458557, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Wajid Ali (Reform)", - "probability": 0.009070561903640004, + "probability": 0.008989026383376137, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Therese Hirst (English Democrat)", + "probability": 0.008989026383376137, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons), Wajid Ali (Reform)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Cooper (Green), Bob Buxton (Yorkshire Party), Stewart Golton (LD), Tracy Brabin (Lab), Matthew Robinson (Cons), Wajid Ali (Reform), Therese Hirst (English Democrat)" }, { "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Winner", @@ -29665,75 +29710,123 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.548275834272385, + "probability": 0.5554010561854001, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.3923218191904622, + "probability": 0.3772977639065377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.004391662155117115, + "probability": 0.004448734828151713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.008739842506718219, + "probability": 0.008853422776816776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "SDP", - "probability": 0.004391662155117115, + "probability": 0.004448734828151713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heritage Party", - "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "UKIP", - "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, + "probability": 0.0017848217574021842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Womens Equality Party", - "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, + "probability": 0.0017848217574021842, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "North East Party", - "probability": 0.004391662155117115, + "probability": 0.004448734828151713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sam Lee (Ind)", - "probability": 0.008739842506718219, + "probability": 0.008853422776816776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP)", - "probability": 0.017308315552520392, + "name": "Thelma Walker (Ind)", + "probability": 0.017533249028597927, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greens", - "probability": 0.004391662155117115, + "probability": 0.004448734828151713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Adam Gaines (Ind)", - "probability": 0.0017619243376817166, + "probability": 0.0017848217574021842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Freedom Alliance", + "probability": 0.0017848217574021842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Chris Killick", + "probability": 0.0017848217574021842, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Official Monster Raving Loony", + "probability": 0.0008933023980604339, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Ralph Ward-Jackson (Ind)", + "probability": 0.004448734828151713, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, UKIP, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (either as Ind or NIP), Greens, Adam Gaines (Ind)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK, SDP, Heritage Party, Womens Equality Party, North East Party, Sam Lee (Ind), Thelma Walker (Ind), Greens, Adam Gaines (Ind), Freedom Alliance, Chris Killick, Official Monster Raving Loony, Ralph Ward-Jackson (Ind)" + }, + { + "title": "Hartlepool By-election: Thelma Walker Vote Share", + "url": "https://sports.ladbrokes.com/sport/politics/outrights", + "platform": "Ladbrokes", + "description": "", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 5%", + "probability": 0.7243621679733592, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "5-10%", + "probability": 0.18543671500117995, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "10-20%", + "probability": 0.05454021029446469, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Over 20%", + "probability": 0.035660906730996145, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 5%, 5-10%, 10-20%, Over 20%" }, { "title": "Airdrie And Shotts By-election: To Win", @@ -29762,7 +29855,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29875,7 +29968,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29913,7 +30006,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29936,7 +30029,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -29974,7 +30067,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30012,7 +30105,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30035,7 +30128,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30078,7 +30171,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30101,7 +30194,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30124,7 +30217,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30147,7 +30240,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30190,7 +30283,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30218,7 +30311,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30241,7 +30334,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30274,7 +30367,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30297,7 +30390,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30335,7 +30428,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30373,7 +30466,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30406,7 +30499,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30434,7 +30527,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30622,7 +30715,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30665,7 +30758,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30688,7 +30781,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30731,7 +30824,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.763Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30745,36 +30838,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 40%", - "probability": 0.06797826840739377, + "probability": 0.03383244565035339, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "40-45%", - "probability": 0.27191307362957506, + "probability": 0.21991089672729705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "45-50%", - "probability": 0.3728765777620754, + "probability": 0.3518574347636753, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50-55%", - "probability": 0.2524907112274625, + "probability": 0.3518574347636753, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55-60%", - "probability": 0.025991690861650554, + "probability": 0.03383244565035339, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Over 60%", - "probability": 0.008749678111842761, + "probability": 0.008709342444645428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30797,7 +30890,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30850,7 +30943,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30898,7 +30991,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -30936,7 +31029,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -31284,7 +31377,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.865Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -31298,30 +31391,35 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andy Street (Cons)", - "probability": 0.6997822270433548, + "probability": 0.6902570195406347, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenny Wilkinson (LD)", - "probability": 0.009214954078887743, + "probability": 0.009089523128604398, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liam Byrne (Lab)", - "probability": 0.2863724190669729, + "probability": 0.2824744110735521, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Ashvir Sangha (Ind)", - "probability": 0.004630399810784388, + "name": "Steve Caudwell (Green)", + "probability": 0.009089523128604398, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Pete Durnell (Reform UK)", + "probability": 0.009089523128604398, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:30.865Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:32.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andy Street (Cons), Jenny Wilkinson (LD), Liam Byrne (Lab), Ashvir Sangha (Ind)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andy Street (Cons), Jenny Wilkinson (LD), Liam Byrne (Lab), Steve Caudwell (Green), Pete Durnell (Reform UK)" }, { "title": "Biden to leave office in 1st term via Impeachment, Resignation or 25th Amendment", @@ -31772,18 +31870,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.42, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:34.949Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:34.682Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -31795,10 +31893,40 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", + "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", + "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:36.111Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 605, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -31811,33 +31939,71 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:37.009Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:37.413Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 323, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/", + "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n", + "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:38.981Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:38.811Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 49, + "numforecasts": 341, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-11-03T11:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:40.484Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 81, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:41.749Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 134, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -31849,7 +32015,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 6%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 180% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:40.690Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:42.903Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -31879,9 +32045,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:42.675Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:44.645Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 195, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -31892,32 +32058,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:44.389Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-18T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If there is a WW3, what latitude will it start in?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-ww3-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what latitude will it start in?\nLatitude will be represented on a scale of -90 to 90, with -90 representing 90°S and 90 representing 90°N. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the latitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the latitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with longitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3867/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-longitude-will-it-start-in/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:46.399Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:46.951Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -31930,6 +32077,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5534/labor-seats-after-next-victorian-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Led by Premier Daniel Andrews, the Australian Labor Party did very well in the 2018 Victorian state election, winning 57.3% of the two-party preferred vote and [55 of 88 seats in the lower house](https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/results/state-election-results/2018-state-election) (the Legislative Assembly), i.e. 62.5% of the seats. Victoria is the second largest state in Australia.\nHowever, the COVID-19 pandemic has come to dominate the Andrews Government's term so far. Andrews has been praised for his [cautious COVID-19 response](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/19/hold-on-one-more-week-victoria-daniel-andrews-is-correct-to-take-a-cautious-approach) and [his personal endurance in addressing the pandemic,](https://theconversation.com/andrews-under-fire-why-an-activist-premiers-greatest-challenges-may-yet-lie-ahead-146838) but Victoria is the state that has been worst-affected by the virus' second wave - which can be, at least in part, [attributed to the state government's handling of hotel quarantine.](https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/sep/28/victoria-hotel-quarantine-failures-responsible-for-covid-second-wave-and-768-deaths-inquiry-told) \nIn late October 2020, the state has reported its first days with no new cases since early June. \nThe next Victorian election is scheduled for the 26th of November 2022, and will elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria.\nWhat percentage of Legislative Assembly seats will the Australian Labor Party win at the next Victorian state election?\nThe question will resolve according to official reports by the Victorian Electoral Commission. \nIn the unlikely event that the Electoral Commission reports elected candidates but not their party affiliation, reliable news media like the ABC can be used instead.\nIf the Labor Party does not contest the next state election, this question resolves ambiguously. \nIf the election date is changed, that will not affect the resolution - but the question should be closed one week before whatever the election date is changed to.\nIf the Labor Party splits before the next election, whichever party is considered the continuing party by the Victorian Electoral Commission (e.g. whichever keeps the party name) will count towards resolution of this question. If neither, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nA candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party before the election will not count towards the total, even if they leave the party so late that the party name is printed beside theirs on the ballot paper. A candidate that leaves or is expelled from the Labor Party after the election will count towards the total. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:48.113Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-08T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-18T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-09T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will reducing wild animal suffering be a mainstream moral issue in America before 2200?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3777/will-reducing-wild-animal-suffering-be-a-mainstream-moral-issue-in-america-before-2200/", @@ -31947,7 +32113,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:48.203Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:49.429Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { @@ -31960,13 +32126,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:50.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 103, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegetarian diet in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3337/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegetarian-diet-in-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Vegetarianism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of meat (red meat, poultry, seafood, and the flesh of any other animal). Vegetarianism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating meat might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nThere are different types of vegetarianism: an [ovo-lacto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo-lacto_vegetarianism) vegetarian diet includes both eggs and dairy products, an [ovo-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ovo_vegetarianism) diet includes eggs but not dairy products, and a [lacto-vegetarian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lacto_vegetarianism) diet includes dairy. By contrast, the vegan diet excludes all animal products, including eggs and dairy.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 4% of respondents self-reported as vegetarian (or vegan).\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percentage will self-report to follow any vegetarian diet (including a vegan diet)?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never eat meat, fish, seafood, or poultry\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another poll if i) it surveys a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) at least 2,000 adults are polled, and iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry. If multiple polls are considered credible by an admin, the admin may choose to resolve as the median percentage of each poll.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:50.228Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:52.249Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 191, "resolution_data": { @@ -31980,60 +32165,30 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/", + "title": "By 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year in a single conflict?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6940/10k-us-conflict-deaths-in-1-year-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n", + "description": "I'm interested in whether the USA will be involved in a major hot war in the next decade. I wasn't satisfied with the resolution criteria of other questions on this topic, so I created this one.\nBy 2030, will 10,000+ Americans die in a single year from a single conflict?\nFor purposes of this question, deaths due to bioweapons, electricity grid failures, etc. don't count. Roughly, we are interested in \"deaths due to kinetic attacks.\" The 9/11 attacks count because ramming planes into buildings to make them collapse is kinetic. Were someone to hack into the FDA and mess things up so as to delay vaccine approval, thereby causing tens of thousands of deaths, that would not count.\nThe attackers don't need to be the military of a nation-state; terrorist groups count and coalitions/alliances also count.\nHowever, the attackers need to be \"part of the same team\" in some sense. Otherwise, this would resolve positive simply in virtue of the US annual homicide rate! If there were a series of race riots, insurrections, or acts of domestic terrorism linked together under one banner (e.g. white supremacy, antigovernment, or antipolice) that would count.\nYes, this means that (contrary to what the headline question would suggest) if the USA gets involved in several independent small-scale wars, the US casualties from which total more than 10,000 in a year, that would not count.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:51.936Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:53.413Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 12, + "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-07T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:53.921Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 527, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2027-01-01T14:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T14:13:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -32056,9 +32211,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:55.985Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:54.797Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 750, + "numforecasts": 751, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-21T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -32069,6 +32224,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected President of France in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2511/will-emmanuel-macron-be-re-elected-president-of-france-in-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Emmanuel Jean-Michel Frédéric Macron,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emmanuel_Macron) born 21 December 1977, is a French politician serving as President of France and Co-Prince of Andorra since 2017. He previously served as Minister of the Economy, Industry and Digital Affairs from 2014 to 2016. \nIn the first round of [Presidential Elections in 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_French_presidential_election), Macron won 8,656,346 votes or 24.01% of the vote. In the second round, he won 20,743,128 votes or 66.10% of the vote, defeating Marine le Pen of the Front national (now Rassemblement national) in a landslide.\nIn the months following his election, [Macron's approval rating declined significantly to below 30%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_the_Emmanuel_Macron_presidency) and the [Mouvement des gilets jaunes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yellow_vests_movement) protest movement has risen to prominence, which has called for Macron's resignation.\nThis question asks: Will Emmanuel Macron be re-elected as President of France in the [2022 Presidential Election?](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_French_presidential_election)\nResolves positively if electoral officials report that Emmanuel Macron has been re-elected President of France following the conclusion of the 2022 Presidential Election.\nResolves negatively if for any reason Macron is not a candidate in that election or is not declared the winner.\nResolves ambiguously if for any reason there is no Presidential Election held in France in 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:56.505Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 527, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Are we on path for IPCC's 'middle-of-the-road' scenario for the deployment of renewables?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3665/are-we-on-path-for-ipccs-middle-of-the-road-scenario-for-the-deployment-of-renewables/", @@ -32086,7 +32271,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:57.739Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:57.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "resolution_data": { @@ -32105,7 +32290,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Unlike the field of image generation where many studies have succeeded in generating high-resolution and high-fidelity realistic images, video generation with unconditional GANs is still a challenging problem ([Saito et al., 2018](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.09245.pdf)). A reason videos might be a harder problem than images is the that videos require larger memory and computational costs than static images (ibid.), and therefore involve increased data complexity [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf). \nRecently, an article by DeepMind [(Aidan et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf), introduced the Dual Video Discriminator GAN (DVD-GAN), that scales to longer and higher resolution videos. It beat previous attempts on various performance metrics for synthesis on the Kinetics-600 dataset.\n[DVD-GAN](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.06571.pdf) synthesized video with a 3.35 [Fréchet Inception Distance score](https://papers.nips.cc/paper/7240-gans-trained-by-a-two-time-scale-update-rule-converge-to-a-local-nash-equilibrium.pdf) (a metric that captures the similarity of ordered generated images), and a 64.05 [Inception Score](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.03498.pdf) (a metric of performance modelled on the judgment of human annotators) for synthesised video at 12fps and a resolution of 256 × 256. However, the videos are very short — up to 48 frames — which amounts to only 2 seconds of video at 24 fps.\nWhen will a generative model produce a video of at least 2880 frames, at a 256 × 256 resolution or better, with a reported Fréchet Inception Distance of less than 0.100, or an Inception Score of greater than 500.00?\nThis question resolves as the date when such a model is reported in a preprint or peer-reviewed journal.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:00:59.689Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:10:58.908Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 150, "resolution_data": { @@ -32118,36 +32303,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock?\nWill Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.\nLocal elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.\nThis question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.\nResolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:01.669Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T04:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Climeworks still exist in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4862/will-climeworks-still-exist-in-2030/", @@ -32165,7 +32320,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:03.446Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:00.317Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -32195,7 +32350,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:07.834Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:01.486Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -32208,13 +32363,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:02.775Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 80, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3913/when-will-a-vaccine-for-hiv-be-administered-to-10-million-people/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HIV),\nThe human immunodeficiency viruses (HIV) are two species of Lentivirus (a subgroup of retrovirus) that infect humans. [...] The urgency of the search for a vaccine against HIV stems from the AIDS-related death toll of over 35 million people since 1981.\nTo count, a vaccine must provide protection against the HIV-1 variant of Lentivirus. The relevant conditions for resolving this question are determined in an identical manner to those prescribed in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3860/when-will-a-vaccine-targeted-at-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-be-administered-to-at-least-10m-people/) for COVID-19. \n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when such a vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. \nThe first HIV vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger:\n--- \nPositive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against HIV.\n--- \nAmbiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other.\n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against HIV\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among expert medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Dec 30, 2050, it resolves as >Dec 30, 2050. If it is not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:09.905Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:03.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -32244,9 +32418,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:11.898Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:05.381Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 326, + "numforecasts": 327, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -32257,32 +32431,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Blue Origin's \"New Glenn\" rocket complete its first successful test flight?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/472/when-will-blue-origins-new-glenn-rocket-complete-its-first-successful-test-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Along with [SpaceX](http://www.spacex.com), [Virgin Galactic](http://www.virgingalactic.com), and others, [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) is vying for a place in the booming commercial space business. The company, founded by Jeff Bezos of [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com), is built around two main rocket technologies: the [New Shepard](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Shepard) and [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) rockets.\nNamed after the first US astronauts to reach [space](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Shepard) and [orbit the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Glenn), respectively, the rockets are designed to carry cargo and/or passengers and soft-land so as to be reusable. \nNew Shepherd completed its [first test flight](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/04/blue-origins-new-shepard-test-flight/) in 2015, and [reached space](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2015/11/blue-origin-latest-milestone-resuable-rocket-aspiration/) with its second successful test flight. The first flight with a [reused booster](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-reflies-new-shepard-suborbital-vehicle/) occurred in January 2016. \nNew Glenn is a more ambitious project. As envisioned, the rocket will use seven [BE-4 engines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BE-4), producing around twice the thrust of any other rocket in operation. New Glenn will have the capability to deliver up to 45 tons of cargo to low earth orbit or up to 13 tons to a geostationary orbit. Although Bezos' rockets are named after Mercury Seven astronauts, he's more likely looking at a different NASA program for inspiration, since the full three-stage New Glenn rocket will stand [nearly as tall](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/) as Apollo's Saturn V. \nIn addition to the New Glenn rocket, BE-4 engines will be installed in United Launch Alliance's [next-generation Atlas rocket](http://www.ulalaunch.com/ula-blue-origin-BE-4-production-agreement.aspx), replacing the Russian-made engines that currently power the Atlas — the long-time workhorse of commercial cargo delivery. ULA calls the new rocket \"Vulcan\" and anticipates a 2019 maiden flight.\nIn short, New Glenn will be more powerful than any current rocket and will be able to go much farther. Maybe, as Bezos seems to tease, [all the way to the moon](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/jeff-bezos-says-nasa-should-return-to-the-moon-and-hes-ready-to-help/)? Projected launch dates are typically strongly optimistic, and Bezos' current estimate of New Glenn's first flight is [before 2020](https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/03/blue-origin-releases-details-of-its-monster-orbital-rocket/).\nBut first, the rocket needs to be thoroughly proven out and put into service. BE-4 testing is ongoing, and in May 2017 test engines suffered a [mishap](http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-suffers-be-4-testing-mishap/), losing a piece of hardware during a test fire. Such setbacks are not uncommon in developing a new engine - but they eat up time.\nAnd there is competition. Although New Glenn would be the most powerful rocket if it were flying today, SpaceX is developing their [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/falcon-heavy) rocket and NASA is working on its [Space Launch System](https://www.nasa.gov/exploration/systems/sls/index.html) — both of which would carry more cargo than New Glenn.\nWhen will New Glenn successfully complete its first flight?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a New Glenn rocket successfully launches and soft-lands in a way that allows the rocket to be re-used.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:13.828Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-06-04T18:19:44Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-06-15T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2018, electric cars constituted [0.45%](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) of all cars on US roads. There is a consistent effort from many governments to increase the usage of electric cars, up to promising to [ban all sales of non-electric cars](https://web.archive.org/web/20190531053848/https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/11/autos/countries-banning-diesel-gas-cars/index.html) by a certain date. In parallel to these efforts, both popularity of electric cars among customers and the variety of manufacturers producing electric cars is rising. Some manufacturers even promise to [move to 100% electric](http://web.archive.org/web/20200215021332/https://thedriven.io/2020/01/22/subaru-targets-100-electric-cars-by-mid-2030-but-mild-hybrids-only-headed-to-australia/). On the other hand, by [Wikipedia data](https://web.archive.org/web/20200112055841/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country) only one country (Norway) has over 5% of electric cars out of all cars on the roads so far.\nThe question is:\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in the USA?\nThe date is set by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on US roads is over 5%. \nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery, or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:15.801Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:07.073Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 150, "resolution_data": { @@ -32312,7 +32467,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:17.756Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:08.315Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 291, "resolution_data": { @@ -32325,25 +32480,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:19.939Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 231, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the UK's NHS recommend Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before the end of the pandemic?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5317/nhs-to-recommend-vit-d-supp/", @@ -32361,7 +32497,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:21.979Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:09.521Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 149, "resolution_data": { @@ -32374,6 +32510,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by the end of 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2944/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-the-end-of-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Currently (21 July 2019) 139,627 predictions have been made on Metaculus since being founded in late 2015.\nHow many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 31 December 2023 at 11:59 GMT?\nSee also, [how many predictions will have been made on Metaculus by 18 December 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1661/how-many-predictions-will-have-been-made-on-metaculus-by-18-december-2019/)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:10.992Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 231, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-07-20T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-18T22:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-20T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Kyle Rittenhouse be convicted of first-degree intentional homicide?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5158/will-kyle-rittenhouse-be-convicted-of-first-degree-intentional-homicide/", @@ -32391,9 +32546,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:24.037Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:12.651Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 550, + "numforecasts": 551, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -32421,7 +32576,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:25.954Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:13.939Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 187, "resolution_data": { @@ -32451,7 +32606,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:27.696Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:15.092Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { @@ -32481,7 +32636,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:29.684Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:16.248Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -32500,7 +32655,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery. \nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:31.528Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:17.421Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -32519,7 +32674,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:33.292Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:18.580Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -32549,7 +32704,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:35.359Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:20.165Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 279, "resolution_data": { @@ -32562,32 +32717,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:37.405Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 150, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6614/the-highest-value-1-btc-will-reach-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The value of one bitcoin has been in flux since the inception of the cryptocurrency in 2009. As of 3/12/21, it's worth over $55,000. What is the maximum value it will reach by the end of this decade?\nWhat is the highest value 1 bitcoin will ever reach by 2030?\nThe price of one bitcoin will be finally determined by a leading cryptocurrency market exchange (see below) on Jan. 1, 2030 (12:00 AM GMT). \n---We shall derive the price of 1 BTC from Binance, the exchange with the current highest trading volume. \nIf Binance is defunct by the time this contest expires, a new source will be selected, in this order:\n--- \nCoinbase\n--- \nKraken\n--- \nBitfinex\n--- \nBitstamp\nIf none of these sources are available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:39.516Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:21.480Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { @@ -32600,6 +32736,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6480/novavax-vaccine-us-eua-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The two-dose protein-based vaccine NVX-CoV2373, which uses a modified spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing Phase III testing in both [North America](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) and the [United Kingdom](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04583995?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=3) with the support of Novavax. Novavax is also running a Phase IIb trial in [South Africa](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04533399?term=novavax&cond=Covid19&draw=2&rank=2).\nOn 28 January, Novavax [reported interim results](https://ir.novavax.com/news-releases/news-release-details/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-demonstrates-893-efficacy-uk-phase-3) from its UK Phase III and South Africa Phase IIb trials, which includes a point estimate of 89% efficacy in the UK and 60% efficacy in South Africa. As of 3 February, Novavax has not said when it expects to file with the FDA for an emergency use authorization (EUA) but a 3 February New York Times article indicates that authorization might occur [\"as early as April\"](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/03/health/covid-vaccine-novavax-trial.html?smid=tw-share) — implying that Novavax might wait for results from the larger [PREVENT-19 phase III trial](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04611802) that is currently ongoing in the US and Mexico before filing. However, Fierce Biotech is reporting that Novavax is [\"talking to the FDA but is yet to say whether it will be possible to seek approval before the U.S.-Mexico trial is complete.\"](https://www.fiercebiotech.com/biotech/novavax-covid-19-vaccine-90-efficacious-phase-3-but-protection-plummets-against-one-variant).\nWhen will the Novavax SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first credible media report is published stating that NVX-CoV2373 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for NVX-CoV2373. If an EUA is never granted, this resolves as > 31 December 2021. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:22.963Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 151, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will EA Global London 2021 be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6348/ea-global-london-2021-rescheduled/", @@ -32617,7 +32772,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:41.414Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:24.112Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -32647,9 +32802,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:43.361Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:25.441Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 227, + "numforecasts": 228, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -32661,89 +32816,40 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", + "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", + "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.65, + "probability": 0.32, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.35, + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:48.631Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:27.981Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 382, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z" + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.17000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:50.364Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 98, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:52.277Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 213, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -32756,33 +32862,33 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:54.636Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:29.186Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 639, + "numforecasts": 892, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "title": "When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3141/when-will-100-people-or-more-be-in-space-or-on-any-astronomical-body-other-than-earth-simultaneously/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "description": "As of September 2019, the record for the greatest number of humans in space at one time is 13. [This has happened three times, once in 1995, and twice in 2009.](https://space.stackexchange.com/questions/905/what-is-the-highest-number-of-humans-in-space-at-the-same-time-and-what-vessels)\nThis question asks: When will 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously?\nThis question resolves as the date when it's first true that 100 people or more be in space, or on any astronomical body other than earth, simultaneously. For the purposes of this question, a living human will be considered to be 'in space' if they achieve an altitude of [at least 100km above Earth's mean sea level](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line), or if they are located on any astronomical objects other than Earth.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:01:57.072Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:30.405Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 213, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-06T11:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -32805,7 +32911,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:00.801Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:31.657Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 261, "resolution_data": { @@ -32818,6 +32924,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6516/performance-of-top-supercomputer-nov-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:33.137Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 108, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the price of bitcoin drop below $10K USD in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5826/bitcoin-below-10k/", @@ -32835,9 +32960,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:05.992Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:34.577Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 733, + "numforecasts": 734, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -32849,19 +32974,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/", + "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.\nThis question asks:\nHow much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.\nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. \n", + "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:07.925Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:35.804Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 107, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -32884,9 +33009,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:09.629Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:37.002Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-01T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -32898,54 +33023,54 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/", + "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:11.460Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5922/scotland-independence-referendum-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has recently [“…pledged to publish draft legislation for a new Scottish independence referendum, including the question and timing of the vote, before the country’s parliamentary election next year ... [Sturgeon] put on hold plans for a second referendum in March to concentrate on the coronavirus crisis.”](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-scotland-independence/scottish-nationalists-announce-plans-for-new-independence-referendum-idUSKBN25S5SX?il=0). The UK’s conservative government has [indicated that it will oppose](https://www.ft.com/content/0f0ecf40-f30a-482e-9902-d74276bdc43f) the scheduling of any such independence referendum in Scotland.\nWill Scotland set a date for a new independence referendum in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether in 2021 Scotland schedules a date for a new independence referendum. The UK does not have to agree to this for this question to resolve positively.\n", + "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:13.653Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:38.529Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 379, + "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:39.788Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the U.S. join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership trade pact in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5920/us-to-join-rcep-trade-pact-in-2021/", @@ -32963,7 +33088,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:15.483Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:40.985Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 117, "resolution_data": { @@ -32976,34 +33101,15 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Conditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6820/if-eu-democracy-overthrown-by-whom/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As political polarization increases across the Western world, both the left and the right sometimes fear and emphasize that the other side of the aisle will attempt to overthrow the current regime. But, who is more right?\nConditional on a EU country ceasing to be a democracy by 2070, will the regime change be by \"the left\" or by \"the right\"?\nA list of EU countries can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union#Member_states).\nA country will be considered to be a democracy if:\n---It is either a full democracy or a flawed democracy according to the Economist's [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index). Under this definition, the US or Hungary are democracies (although flawed), whereas Turkey or Russia are authoritarian regimes. \n---A simple majority on a quorum of five Metaculus moderators or admins concurs. This is meant to combat the case where the Democracy Index is politicized beyond the point of usefulness. \nThis question resolves as 0 if if the regime change to a non-democratic regime is carried out by an ideology which clearly and unambiguously belongs to \"the left\", as 100 if the regime change is carried out by \"the right\", and as a value in between if the allegiance is not clear. In particular, 5 or more Metaculus moderators will each give a \"right to left\" score of between 0 and 100, and the question will resolve as the average of said scores.\nIf a country leaves the EU, they will still be considered towards question resolution. If an EU country separates in two, both countries will be considered. If a new country joins the EU, that country shall not be considered. If a country gets completely invaded or annexed by a nondemocratic regime, this question resolves according to the alignment of the nondemocratic regime. If a country gets only partially invaded by a nondemocratic regime, this doesn't trigger question resolution. Wartime suspension of democratic mechanisms (e.g., elections) doesn't trigger question resolution. A simple majority of a quorum of 5 Metaculus moderators will have final discretion.\nIn case there aren't 5 metaculus moderators, but someone is still able to resolve questions, that person shall be able to deputize persons they deem to be of good judgment as Metaculus moderators for the purposes of this question's resolution.\nFriendly reminder that the UK doesn't belong to the EU anymore. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:17.348Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2069-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will any country have a life expectancy at birth for both sexes of at least 100 years?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3044/when-will-any-country-have-a-life-expectancy-at-birth-for-both-sexes-of-at-least-100-years/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 2017, according to the CIA World Factbook the country with the greatest life expectancy at birth for both sexes (combined average, not both sexes individually) was [Monaco at 89.4 years.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2102rank.html) In second and third place were Japan and Singapore, at 85.3 and 85.2 years respectively. \nOf 224 countries and territories listed, only 43 had a life expectancy of at least 80 years, the lowest of these being the United States at 80 years. Only 19 had a life expectancy below 60 years, the lowest of these being Chad at 50.6 years.\nThis question asks: when, according to the CIA World Factbook, World Health Organization or United Nations, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 100 years in any country?\nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 100 years for women and men individually.\nBy 'country,' this question refers to a sovereign state. Special administrative regions, federal states or provinces, overseas territories, and other non-sovereign geopolitical entities do not count.\nThis question shall accept the first instance of any country reaching a combined both sexes life expectancy at birth of at least 100 years according to any of these sources: CIA World Factbook, United Nations, World Health Organization.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:19.203Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:42.296Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, + "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-08-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33014,32 +33120,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:21.059Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 92, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)).\nIf success in the production and commercialisation of clean meat is easily replicable by competitors, one might expect that multiple companies will reach the $1bn milestone in short succession of each other. This may occur if clean meat companies face a common limiting factor, that is removed by way of scientific discovery that is used to lower costs, or by sudden regulatory change.\nMoreover, if the clean meat market is expected to be very valuable, then more companies will be trying to succeed, resulting in more competition that may be more beneficial if we want clean meat products to replace a non-trivial portion of existing markets for meat more quickly.\nHow many months after the first clean meat company is first valued at ≥ $1bn will there be at least three companies valued at a billion dollars or more?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of months between when credible reporting indicates that a clean meat company is first valued at $1bn or more, and when credible reporting indicates that at least three clean meat companies that exist simultaneously, are valued at $1bn or more. \nFor a company to qualify as a \"clean meat company\" at least three articles must be published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\" or \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean-meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". These articles must be published within six months after the company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation.\nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nThe resolution of our question [When will the first clean meat company be valued at $1bn or more?] should start the clock for this question.\nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:23.154Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:43.577Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -33053,19 +33140,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/", + "title": "What percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6301/it-as--of-gdp-in-q3-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n", + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:25.058Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:45.368Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T17:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -33088,7 +33175,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:29.141Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:48.583Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { @@ -33101,25 +33188,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6979/starship-survives-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "SpaceX has had four flights where prototypes of their Starship vehicle have gone above 10 km, each time resulting in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly- on landing for SN8 and SN9, 8 minutes after landing in the case of SN10, and SN11 in midair.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?\nThis question resolves to the time that an upper stage vehicle made by SpaceX, representative of a vehicle that SpaceX officials expect to bring humans to Mars, flies to a height of at least 10 km, and remains continuously intact for at least 24 hours after making contact with the Earth after flight. If the ship experiences an RUD or has more than 15% of the mass of its main body no longer connected to the main body within 24 hours of landing, that flight will not trigger resolution.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:32.939Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-06T02:07:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-30T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will San Francisco issue a health order banning all restaurant indoor dining anytime between 2021-07-01 and 2021-12-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6858/sf-bans-indoor-dining-in-late-2021/", @@ -33137,7 +33205,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:34.992Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:49.829Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -33156,7 +33224,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Riemann hypothesis](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/official_problem_description.pdf) is a conjecture stating that the nontrivial zeroes of the [Riemann zeta function](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riemann_zeta_function) all have real part equal to .\nWhen will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved or disproved?\nThis question will resolve as the date when the Clay Mathematics Institute announces that the Hypothesis has been proved or disproved according to rule 5.c of the [Millennium Prize Rules](https://www.claymath.org/sites/default/files/millennium_prize_rules_0.pdf), or when it is shown to be independent of the standard ZFC axioms.\nIn case the Clay Mathematics Institute is discontinued or no longer awards prizes for resolved Millennium Prize Problems, it resolves when admins decide that there is a consensus amongst relevant leading pure mathematicians about the Hypothesis being resolved.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:36.992Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:51.792Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { @@ -33175,7 +33243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Plant-based meat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meat_analogue) is\na meat-like substance made from plants [that] typically approximates certain aesthetic qualities (such as texture, flavor, appearance) or chemical characteristics of specific types of meat.\nConsumers may choose plant-based meat products over traditional meat for [several reasons](https://www.vox.com/2019/5/28/18626859/meatless-meat-explained-vegan-impossible-burger), including the environmental impact and animal welfare concerns associated to factory farming.\nThe US market size of plant-based meat [increased steadily](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch) from $682M in 2017 to $939M in 2019, a 38% growth. However, plant-based meat still accounted for only 1% of the US meat market in 2019.\nThis question asks:\nHow much will the US market of plant-based meat grow in 2021 with respect to the previous year?\nResolution will be based on the market volume of refrigerated plant-based meat according to [The Good Food Institute's market research report](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch). If that report ceases to be produced, resolution will be based on Future Perfect's reporting on their own prediction.\nGrowth will be calculated as where is \"Dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat in the year \" (see figure 8 in the 2020 report).\nBoth figures will be taken from the 2021 report. If the 2021 report does not include the 2020 figure, the figure from the 2020 report will be used instead.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:38.817Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:53.212Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { @@ -33194,7 +33262,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As people increasingly get used to remote working during lockdown, there have been [claims](https://time.com/5851978/pandemic-plague-henry-viii/) about the [effect](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/31/success/leaving-the-city-for-suburbs/index.html) this will have on the shape of work in the long-term. It is at least possible that people will increasingly move to live outside of major cities, and then work remotely for at least a part of the time. At the last available estimate (April 2019), the population of London was [8,908,081](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) and the population.of England [56,286,961](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland) This question therefore asks:\nWhat fraction of England’s population will live in London at the end of 2022?\nResolution will be according to estimates published by the Office for National Statistics for April 2022, which is expected to be released mid-2023.The question resolves as the fraction (Population of London)*100/(Population of England).\nIf no estimate is produced by the end of 2024, or the ONS ceases to exist, other credible estimates will be used. If the ONS produces an estimate for a different month of 2022, this will be used instead. If the ONS produces multiple estimates, the estimate closest to April 15 2022 will be used. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:40.867Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:54.533Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -33213,7 +33281,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Travel Pass Initiative](https://www.iata.org/en/programs/passenger/travel-pass/) of the [International Air Transport Association](https://www.iata.org/), now in its final stages before launch, aims \"to re-open borders without quarantine\" by giving passengers the ability to share verifiable, accurate information on their COVID-19 health status, including vaccination and testing. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege,\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good) and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with IATA Travel Passes?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official IATA or ICAO statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:42.932Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:56.092Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 194, "resolution_data": { @@ -33232,9 +33300,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The AMA Supercross is a motorsports championship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AMA_Supercross_Championship) that takes place using motorcycles on a series of carefully prepared dirt tracks, usually indoors, that are relatively low speed with difficult conditions and high jumps. The series takes place over a few months in several US cities. As of March 2021, only two specific types of gas powered motorcycle are eligible to be raced in AMA Supercross--the 250 and 450 classes. Yet, there is good reason to believe that an electric class, or even a mixed-class allowance of electric motorcycles may be added in the near future. [Several](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formula_E) other [motorsports](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TT_Zero) have [raised the profile](https://www.motogp.com/en/FIM+Enel+MotoE+World+Cup) of electric vehicles.\nYamaha appears to be [late in the development of](http://www.motoheadmag.com/yamaha-electric-crosser-nears-production/) an electric motocross race bike, with performance purportedly equivalent to the base versions of the motorcycles used in the 250 class.\nThe question might seem to be when, not if, an electric motorcycle will win the AMA Supercross.\nWhen will an electric bike win the AMA Supercross series championship?\nThis question resolves positive if a rider competing on an electric motorcycle in any class in the official AMA Supercross is officially declared a championship winner of that AMA Supercross.\nThis question does not resolve positive in the event of single or multiple race wins if they do not result in a championship win.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:44.653Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:57.448Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 17, + "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33245,15 +33313,45 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.43, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:58.612Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 87, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4507/what-percentage-of-top-colleges-in-the-united-states-will-not-require-the-sat-or-act-for-freshman-admittance-by-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On May 21st 2020, University of California (UC) president Janet Napolitano [proposed](https://regents.universityofcalifornia.edu/regmeet/may20/b4.pdf) that the UC system phase out the requirement of the popular standardized tests, the [SAT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAT) and the [ACT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACT_(test)). Given that UC schools comprise [all five of the most applied to colleges](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/28/the-10-universities-that-receive-the-most-applications.html) in the United States, this move was seen by many as marking a transition in how college admission works in the United States.\nScott Aaronson [wrote](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=4816) on his blog,\nThis is widely expected, probably correctly, to trigger a chain reaction, whereby one US university after the next will abandon standardized tests. As a result, admissions to the top US universities—and hence, most chances for social advancement in the US—will henceforth be based entirely on shifting and nebulous criteria that rich, well-connected kids and their parents spend most of their lives figuring out, rather than merely mostly based on such criteria.\nWill his prediction be correct? This question asks, What percentage of top colleges in the United States will not require the SAT or ACT for freshman admittance by 2030?\nDefine a top college in the United States as a university that ranks in the top 50 for national universities according to [the most recent ranking](https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/national-universities) by US News and World Report. A spreadsheet of the 2020 rankings can currently be found on [this page](http://andyreiter.com/datasets/). If US News and World Report ends their ranking system by 2030, then these rankings will take its place, in order of priority,\n--- \nThe Wall Street Journal/Times Higher Education College Rankings\n--- \nForbes college rankings\n--- \nThe Princeton Review Dream Colleges\nThe website PrepScholar [has cataloged](https://blog.prepscholar.com/the-complete-guide-to-sat-optional-colleges) which colleges have previously dropped the requirement to submit the SAT/ACT in their application. You can find the current universities in tabular format [here](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/360031/PrepScholar%20Guide%20to%20Schools%20Not%20Requiring%20the%20SAT%202018.pdf). By joining these two tables, we can see that just two top colleges are testing-optional: the University of Chicago and Wake Forest University. Therefore, the fraction before the UC change was 4%. Since six UC schools on the list have now made the tests optional, the current fraction is 16%.\nThis question resolves as the percentages of top colleges in the United States that do not require the SAT or ACT for future freshman admittance, according to the best estimates from the Metaculus community at the start of 2030.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:46.794Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:11:59.737Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33265,24 +33363,54 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:48.692Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:00.930Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 181, + "numforecasts": 123, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:02.156Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6049/time-person-of-the-year-is-us-president-elect/", @@ -33300,9 +33428,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:50.511Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:03.615Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33313,55 +33441,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6415/date-of-australian-border-reopening/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since March 2020, in order to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, Australia [has closed its borders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Australia#Travel_restrictions) to international arrivals other than citizens and permanent residents and those granted individual exemptions.\nFurthermore, those resident in Australia may not leave without being granted an exemption.\nFinally, those who are permitted to enter are required to enter supervised quarantine for 14 days in hotels upon arrival. Exceptions to this include foreign diplomats (who are expected to self-quarantine), some travellers who have made alternate quarantine arrangements to the satisfaction of Australian authorities, and arrivals from New Zealand, who have been exempt from quarantine since October 2020.\nWhen will Australia reopen for quarantine-free international travel?\nThis question will resolve on the first day that all of the following criteria are met:\n1-- \nAustralia no longer requires non-citizens/residents from the majority of countries to apply for an individual exemption in order to travel to Australia, instead reverting to the requirement to hold a visa or to be a citizen of a country with which Australia has visa-free travel arrangements.\n2-- \nAustralia no longer requires arrivals from the majority of countries to quarantine upon arrival (either self-quarantine or supervised quarantine).\n3-- \nAustralia no longer requires those resident to apply for an exemption in order to leave Australia.\nResolution will be based on [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions).\nIf it proves unavailable or unusable, resolution will be based on at least two reputable media sources. (The same source may be used to support multiple criteria).\nEdit 2021-02-07: added [the home affairs website](https://covid19.homeaffairs.gov.au/travel-restrictions) as a resolution source. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:53.102Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:55.008Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Scotland hold an official, sanctioned referendum on independence before May 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6369/official-scottish-independence-referendum/", @@ -33379,9 +33458,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:56.926Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:04.761Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-18T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33393,23 +33472,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", + "title": "By 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by US federal courts go into effect?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6782/abortion-bans-allowed-by-us-courts-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:02:58.798Z", + "description": "In the United States, Abortion has been a divisive social issue before [Roe v. Wade](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) was decided by the Supreme Court in 1973, and has remained controversial since. Roe established the essential right of a mother's choice to have an abortion, but allowed states to impose some restrictions as the fetus matures to the point of viability.\n[12 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws protecting the right to abortion prior to viability, essentially independently affirming Roe v. Wade; 3 other states go farther to guarantee the absolute right to abortion. [22 states](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) have laws passed which are more restrictive than Roe allows; they are unconstitutional for now, but some predict that the current conservative-majority Supreme Court may overturn Roe, or carve smaller exceptions to Roe. In such a case, one of these \"trigger\" laws currently on the books could then take effect immediately.\nKelsey Piper of Vox [predicted](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021) this has a 40% of happening:\nThe Supreme Court, now dominated by justices who think Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided, might overturn it in the next year. More likely, they might technically leave it in place but hollow it out. I consider it pretty likely that they’ll aim to reduce abortion access only a little, and that they won’t overturn Roe or take any larger steps to allow states to pass sweeping abortion bans.\n[...] In the long run, I expect very few US states to stand by such total bans — they’re overwhelmingly unpopular with the American public, most of whom want abortion available at least under limited circumstances, especially early in a pregnancy. But they’ve made their way onto the books, protected from public scrutiny by the fact that they’re currently unconstitutional, and if the Supreme Court lets them go into effect, millions of Americans will temporarily live under deeply unpopular, extreme anti-abortion laws.\nI consider this somewhat unlikely — the Supreme Court tends to prefer not to take such strong steps when it can instead advance its aims more gradually by chipping away, rather than overturning, Roe — but still likely enough that it ought to be on everyone’s radar.\nBy 2022, Will at least one abortion ban currently blocked by federal courts go into effect?\nThis question will resolve positively if any of [19 state-level abortion bans](https://www.guttmacher.org/state-policy/explore/abortion-policy-absence-roe#) become enforcable by ruling of a federal court in 2021. An elligble law will qualify if it is enforcable without amendment or modification for any length of time during 2021; it need not be actually enforced in reality.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:06.052Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, + "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-08T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-08-03T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-05T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Angela Merkel remain chancellor after the next German federal elections?", @@ -33428,9 +33518,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:00.626Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:07.472Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 362, + "numforecasts": 363, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-28T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33442,25 +33532,25 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:02.334Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:08.637Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 171, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33488,7 +33578,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:04.001Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:09.806Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -33501,36 +33591,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:05.870Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 72, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Apple release a new iMac based on Apple silicon in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6643/apple-to-release-21-imac-with-own-silicon/", @@ -33548,7 +33608,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:07.895Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:11.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 53, "resolution_data": { @@ -33578,7 +33638,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:09.695Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:13.178Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 231, "resolution_data": { @@ -33597,7 +33657,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the start of the 21st century, the United States was widely considered to be the world's sole superpower. This is beginning to change, with the rapid rise of China.\nThe chosen metrics are,\n--- \n[Nominal GDP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)) per the International Monetary Fund (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[Military expenditures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures) per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (or another reliable organization, chosen by Metaculus administrators).\n--- \n[The Nature Index](https://www.natureindex.com/annual-tables/2019/country/all). If this index is discontinued, then [International Science Ranking](https://www.scimagojr.com/countryrank.php) takes its place. If both are discontinued, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year during which each published report listed demonstrates that the United States is behind China.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:12.993Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:14.419Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 131, "resolution_data": { @@ -33610,25 +33670,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:14.974Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 138, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will FreeTON cryptocurrency project be successful?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4934/will-freeton-cryptocurrency-project-be-successful/", @@ -33646,7 +33687,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:16.889Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:15.584Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { @@ -33659,6 +33700,44 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:17.209Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 107, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:18.413Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 66, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Erdogan be re-elected President of Turkey?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5350/will-erdogan-be-re-elected-president/", @@ -33676,7 +33755,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:18.893Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:20.623Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 113, "resolution_data": { @@ -33695,7 +33774,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Semiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for December 2022, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2022. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:20.717Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:21.869Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -33708,62 +33787,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6568/sota-on-wikisql-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set. A leaderboard may be found [here](https://github.com/salesforce/WikiSQL).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be on 2023-02-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:22.437Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:24.167Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "In 2024, what percentage of surveyed Americans will report say that conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4608/in-2024-what-percentage-of-surveyed-americans-will-report-say-that-conflicts-between-democrats-and-republicans-are-very-strong/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For decades Pew Research has [reported](https://www.pewresearch.org/topics/political-polarization/) on political polarization in the United States. Since 2012, they have surveyed Americans to gauge the perceived conflict between different groups in the United States. Among the compared groups, Democrats and Republicans are consistently perceived to have the highest level of conflict, and this perception has risen over time.\nIn 2012, the conflict between Democrats and Republicans was perceived to be \"very strong\" by 48% of those surveyed. In 2016, it was 56%. By 2020, it [had risen](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/03/04/far-more-americans-see-very-strong-partisan-conflicts-now-than-in-the-last-two-presidential-election-years/) to 71%. \nIf Pew Research publishes a report for 2024, what percentage of those surveyed will report that the conflicts between Democrats and Republicans are \"very strong\"?\nIf no such report is published in 2024 by Pew Research, then this question resolves ambiguously. If there are multiple reports published in 2024 by Pew Research, the question resolves according to the first report's figures.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:26.154Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:23.101Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { @@ -33776,6 +33806,55 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the mammoth be revived?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6499/when-will-the-mammoth-be-revived/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In April 2015, [2 complete genomes of the wooly mammoth](https://www.cell.com/current-biology/fulltext/S0960-9822(15)00420-0) were sequenced. Some speculate that [a mammoth could be revived](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revival_of_the_woolly_mammoth), bringing the species out of extinction since it died out some 4,000 years ago.\nWhen will the mammoth be revived?\nThis question resolves positive if a mammoth is born and lives for at least a year without major life support. The resolution date will be the mammoth's first birthday.\nThe mammoth must have at least 90% of a mammoth genome. Simply inserting a few mammoth genes into current elephants does not resolve this positively.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:24.280Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-23T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2099-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6920/will-israel-hold-a-second-election-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Israel holds national elections every four years, however elections can be held early if no party is able to form a governing coalition or the government is dissolved midway through a term. Israel has held four elections in the past three years. The most recent election has just concluded and coalition negotiations are still ongoing. Will this election result in a stable government, or will there be more political gridlock?\nWill Israel hold a second national election for Knesset in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if another national election for Knesset occurs in Israel by December 31st 2021.\nLocal elections, additional coalition negotiations, or an election that is announced in 2021 but scheduled for 2022 are not sufficient to cause this question to resolve positively. This question is only asking about a national election to select members of Knesset that occurs in 2021.\nThis question closes retroactively on the day that a qualifying election is announced.\nResolution dates will be according to Israeli Standard Time. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:25.458Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Republicans control the United States Senate on 2022-10-31?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6883/republican-us-senate-before-november-2022/", @@ -33793,9 +33872,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:28.026Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:26.715Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -33807,34 +33886,42 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:30.385Z", + "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:27.904Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 221, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:29.217Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 82, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris be a candidate for President in the 2024 cycle?", @@ -33853,7 +33940,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:32.297Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:30.416Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 191, "resolution_data": { @@ -33866,74 +33953,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:34.072Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 81, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:33:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-13T22:33:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5923/us-gdp-growth-rate-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US’s GDP declined rapidly with the onset of COVID-19, beginning with a [5%]([https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-…](https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020#:~:text=Real%20gross%20domestic%20product%20(GDP,real%20GDP%20increased%202.1%20percent).) decrease in Q1 and then spiralling toward over a 30% decrease in Q2. Q3, however, saw a bounce back with a [33%](https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product) increase in GDP from Q2, a relief for the [economically stricken United States](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/recovery-tracker/). With the holiday season in full swing, and COVID cases rising, GDP is only expected to increase [11%](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow#:~:text=Latest%20estimate%3A%2011.2%20percent%20%E2%80%94%20December,11.1%20percent%20on%20December%201.) in Q4, over a 20% growth reduction from Q3. \nAs we progress into 2021, with a new COVID vaccine on the horizon and a new president entering the White House, the future of the US economy could reside in the passing of the next stimulus package. GDP growth requires consumer expenditure, and with more people saving money through the economic downturn (at rates over [6%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp) higher than average), it is not expected to increase unless additional stimuli are provided to consumers. With the addition of a stimulus package, most likely released by Q2 2021, total GDP growth for 2021 is expected to reach [4.4%](https://www.kiplinger.com/economic-forecasts/gdp).\nWhat will be the U.S. GDP growth (year on year) at the end of 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be sourced from the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/). It will represent the total percent change in GDP growth as measured between reported data from Q4 2020 and Q4 2021. The first estimate that is released will be considered. Data for each quarter for the last several years is provided [here](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=19&step=2#).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:36.257Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 220, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:38.067Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 86, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will a language model with at least 100B parameters trained to do external information retrieval exist before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4876/will-a-language-model-with-at-least-100b-parameters-trained-to-do-external-information-retrieval-exist-before-2023/", @@ -33951,7 +33970,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:39.752Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:31.583Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { @@ -33970,7 +33989,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Carbon emissions from motor transport, and in general, have decreased over the past year with COVID-19 affecting travel and general transportation rates across the globe. Between September 2019 and September 2020, carbon dioxide emissions from global ground transportation have [decreased 15.9%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) and contributed almost 2% of the total reduction in emissions over the past year.\nAs a global consciousness grows over the need to limit climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, more countries are [adopting carbon neutrality goals](https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/06/14/countries-net-zero-climate-goal/). The countries with greatest reductions in ground transportation emissions between 2019 and 2020 were America and Brazil, with a [25% and 16%](https://carbonmonitor.org/ground-transport) decrease respectively. The US’s change in transportation habits during this year contributed to an almost 10% decrease in their total carbon emissions. \nIf consumer consumption patterns for transportation continue to change and as electric vehicle (EV) adoption grows worldwide, hopefully the pattern for carbon emission reduction will continue through 2025. \nData: Data for 2019 and 2020 for a variety of sectors including ground transportation can be found [here](https://carbonmonitor.org/). Historical data for global carbon emissions by fuel type can be found through [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/emissions-by-fuel) for more contextual information.\nBy how much will carbon dioxide emissions change from ground transportation globally between 2020 and 2025?\nResolution criteria will be provided through the site [Carbon Monitor](https://carbonmonitor.org/), and will represent the total percentage change in ground transportation sector emissions between January 2020 and December 2025. Data will be provided on the site sometime in 2026. If data is no longer available, or the site does not exist, then the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:42.186Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:33.255Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { @@ -33983,6 +34002,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6423/trump-substacker-before-2024-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Substack is a new publishing platform that has been growing rapidly.\nWill any member of the Trump family join Substack by Nov 3, 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if any of the following individuals join Substack and create at least one post before the resolution date:\n---Donald Trump \n---Melania Trump \n---Donald Trump Jr. \n---Ivanka Trump \n---Eric Trump \n---Tiffany Trump \n---Barron Trump \n---Jared Kushner \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:34.376Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 86, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-27T18:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-03T18:44:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will The Kidney Project's implantable bioartificial kidney receive FDA approval before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6475/implantable-bioartificial-kidney-fda-approval/", @@ -34000,7 +34049,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:44.015Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:35.503Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { @@ -34014,30 +34063,30 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "title": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "description": "American and European media and political institutions are [drawing](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-border-concerning-united-states/) [attention](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-russian-military-buildup-border/31180563.html) to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from [Ukrainian](https://strana.ua/news/322516-nastuplenie-vsu-na-donbasse-cheho-zhdat-ot-obostrenija-v-zone-oos.html), [Russian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFUdFKgxkFk), and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/[military watcher](https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1370418913641701379) circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent [exchanges](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html) of artillery fire.\nWill there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?\nResolves positively if there are >250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine.\nSource used will be [MemoryBook](http://memorybook.org.ua/indexfile/statmonth.htm) (reprinted on [Wikipedia page](https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%85_%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%B2_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83) reprinting its stats), or another credible source should there be a strong consensus that this one has become incredible or obsolete.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:45.887Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:36.641Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 545, + "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-07T06:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-10-01T09:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-11-01T09:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -34060,7 +34109,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:49.264Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:38.749Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -34073,13 +34122,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6623/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-may-1st-us/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Note that this question is a duplicate-with-modification of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6450/doses-of-vaccine-given-per-day-march-1st-us/) for March 1st. The [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) records the number of Covid-19 doses given per day in the United States and worldwide. As of February 18th, an average of 1.61 million doses are given per day in the United States, when calculated as the 7-day rolling average.\nWhat will be the 7-day rolling average for Covid-19 vaccines given on May 1st in the United States?\nThis question resolves as the number of vaccines doses given per day in the United States, according to the 7-day rolling average reported by the [Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker](https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/), at the end of the day on May 1st 2021. In case some archives conflict with each other (such as due to continuously updating data), the archive from latest in the day on May 1st in Pacific Standard Time is used for resolution. In case Bloomberg does not continue reporting this statistic, as it was understood on January 31st 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously.\nAny disputes about the wording of this question will be resolved via consensus in the comment section. In the case where more than 2 moderators dispute a proposed admin-given resolution, then this question must resolve ambiguously. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:39.961Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 188, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-21T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-12T18:01:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-02T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6566/sota-on-ms-coco-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2023-02-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. Moreover,, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:51.118Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:41.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -34093,34 +34161,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", + "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:52.928Z", + "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:42.841Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 134, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "Will SpaceX land anything on Mars by 2030?", @@ -34139,7 +34196,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:54.776Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:44.022Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1114, "resolution_data": { @@ -34153,35 +34210,54 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.4, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:57.151Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:45.220Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 393, + "numforecasts": 188, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:46.533Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 522, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 presidential election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5352/will-kamala-harris-win-the-2024-election/", @@ -34199,7 +34275,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:03:59.197Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:47.733Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 261, "resolution_data": { @@ -34218,7 +34294,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It the the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the range same that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf). The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius.\nAlthough seemingly beneficial, a reduction in the lower limit of the IPCC's lower limit in the range could be bad news. [(Freeman et al.)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf) argue that a lowering of the bottom of the range, although this reduces the mean of the estimate, our estimate of its standard deviation may increase. In turn, deeper uncertainty should magnify concerns, since marginal damages from rising temperatures increase rapidly.\nWhat will the lower limit in the IPCC's ‘likely’ range of its climate sensitivity estimate be, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lower of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the lower number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in the report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:01.202Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:48.957Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -34232,19 +34308,993 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What fraction of United States adults will be vaccinated against the 2020—2021 seasonal influenza?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3992/what-fraction-of-united-states-adults-will-be-vaccinated-against-the-20202021-seasonal-influenza/", + "title": "Will most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6898/quadfiveeyes-boycott-of-2022-winter-olympics/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Influenza is an endemic viral disease that infects hundreds of millions each year. Most are only mildly ill and out of work for a week, but some hundreds of thousands die, mostly the elderly and immunocompromised. Vaccination is at present the most effective means to combat it.\nIn the United States, the CDC's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices recommends annual flu vaccination for everyone over 6 months without specific contraindications. Despite this, uptake is mediocre, at only 45.3% of the 18-and-over population for the 2018-2019 season. Decades of ad campaigns and public health interventions have struggled to move the needle. One reason may be that the lowest-complying group, young adults with no preexisting conditions, may not understand how their own vaccination protects more vulnerable groups.\nWhat value will [the CDC's FluVaxView website](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/) report for flu vaccination coverage among adults ≥18 years for the 2020–2021 flu season?\nThe CDC's FluVaxView website usually publishes results in the fall after the relevant season (fall 2021 here). If no results have been published by 2021-12-31, this resolves ambiguous unless Metaculus has found a suitable replacement.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:03.239Z", + "description": "China will host the 2022 Winter Olympic Games. Significant political tensions between China and the Western powers, especially the USA, as well as human rights' activists dissatisfaction with China's recent behavior - particularly over the 2019 Hong Kong Protests and the Xinjiang re-education camps - have led to calls for a relocation or boycott of the event.\nWill most of the Quad/Five Eyes countries boycott the 2022 Winter Olympics?\nFor the purpose of this question, US or US-Allied nations includes the countries that belong to the Five Eyes or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue. They are - Canada, USA, UK, Japan, Australia, India, New Zealand.\nThe question will be resolved on the first day of the Winter 2022 Olympic Games (currently scheduled for 2022-02-04), and will resolve later if the 2022 Olympic Games are postponed.\nThe question will resolve positively if at least four of the above-mentioned nations do not participate in the event, and negatively if three or fewer boycott.\nThe question will resolve ambiguously if the 2022 Winter Olympics is cancelled or relocated to another country for whatever reasons (including due to Covid-19 pandemic). If the 2022 Winter Olympics in China are not held before the next Winter Olympics (such as the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan), the question will resolve ambiguously.\nFor this question, a boycott shall be defined as a nation's athletes competing without officially representing their country, and/or a nation holding a separate set of athletic events outside China.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.15, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.85, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:50.168Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 521, + "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-08T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-10-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-03T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-03T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:53.226Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 69, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:54.417Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:56.781Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:57.937Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 35, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:12:59.266Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:00.782Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 155, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:01.966Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 187, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nHere, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:06.033Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 149, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:08.935Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 50, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:10.991Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 22, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints allow same-sex marriage by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4924/will-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints-allow-same-sex-marriage-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), otherwise known as the Mormons, have historically been more anti-LGBT, in terms of both official church doctrine and the individual attitudes of members, than most major Christian denominations in America. However, like other such large, socially conservative churches, there has been [a lot of pressure recently](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homosexuality_and_The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints), particularly from younger and/or LGBT members, for them to change their doctrine regarding gender and sexuality. \nWill the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognize marriages between individuals of the same sex?\nThis question resolves positively if by midnight on December 31st, 2029, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints officially recognizes marriages between individuals of the same sex.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:12.804Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 76, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "In the 2024 US presidential election, how many states will use plurality voting methods to choose their electors?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4848/in-the-2024-us-presidential-election-how-many-states-will-use-plurality-voting-methods-to-choose-their-electors/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The president of the United States is chosen by the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College#Summary), a group of 538 electors drawn from the 50 states plus Washington DC. In the rest of this question, references to states also refer to Washington DC.\nThese electors are chosen by voting within each state. Historically this has been done by means of a [plurality vote](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_voting) within the state, with the following exeptions:\n--- \n[Maine and Nebraska have historically used a congressional district method](https://www.bustle.com/articles/191238-what-is-the-congressional-district-method-maine-nebraska-do-things-differently), which amounts to plurality voting within districts, meaning that the state's electors may not all be from the same party.\n--- \n[Maine plans, in 2020](https://thefulcrum.us/voting/maine-ranked-choice-voting), to use a ranked choice voting method called [Instant Runoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instant-runoff_voting) in the presidential election.\nPlurality voting is notable for being both the most common method by which democratic states choose their governments, and the [worst voting method](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254419149_And_the_loser_is_Plurality_Voting) according to voting experts.\nThis question asks:\nIn the 2024 US Presidential Election, how many states (plus Washington DC) will use plurality voting to choose their electors for the electoral college?\nResolution will be by credible media reports, in 2016 this question would have resolved as 51. \n--- \nStates using the congressional district method has no bearing on resolution; plurality congressional district counts as \"plurality\", while instant runoff congressional district counts as not.\n--- \nStates which use a combined method, for example choosing some fraction of electors using a plurality vote and then the rest using any other method, do not count as having used plurality voting.\n--- \nIf the electoral college is not used in 2024, the question resolves as ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the number of states (plus DC), changes, this question resolves as ambiguous, but should be replaced with a new question with an edited range. This obviously does not need to happen if Washington DC becomes a state.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:14.042Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 49, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-11-03T11:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-11-08T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:15.236Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 90, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:16.367Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 238, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How much will High Impact Athletes have donated by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge, and $44,000 already donated.\nThis question asks:\nHow much money will have been donated by HIA athletes by the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities, donations from athletes who have not made this commitment will not be counted. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current lower bound is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/impact), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. It is a lower bound as dollar amounts are rounded down to the nearest $100.\nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as the total amount donated during its existence. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Donations from all athletes who count as having taken the pledge at the time of their donation will count, regardless of what later happens either to the athlete or the minimum recommended pledge. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:17.541Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 58, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:18.753Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 104, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-05T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:19.947Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 196, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5918/world-to-agree-to-new-climate-targets-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, otherwise known as COP26, is the [26th United Nations Climate Change conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Conference). It is scheduled to be held in Glasgow, United Kingdom in November 2021. This conference is the first time that member states are expected to commit to new targets since COP21 in 2015. It is expected that new targets will be selected by most countries and that these actions will be informed by the 2018 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. All parties to the agreement must submit their new 2030 targets before this next major United Nations climate meeting.\nWill the world agree to new climate targets at the 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference?\nThis question will resolve if at least 95% of countries that are party to the Paris Agreement at the time of the conference announce new targets prior to the COP26 conference.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:21.752Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 131, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5541/usa-most-successful-olympic-team-at-toyko/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [2020 Olympic games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Summer_Olympics) is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).\nThe medal table is calculated by taking the total number of medals won by each participating country and ordering by:\n1--Number of Gold Medals \n2--(Where 1 is tied) Number of Silver Medals \n3--(Where 2 is tied) Number of Bronze Medals \nThe US team is one of the most successful teams in recent years, topping the medal table in 2016, 2012, 2004, 2000. Will they repeat that in 2021?\nWill USA top the Medal Table at the Tokyo Olympics in 2021?\nThis question will resolve positively if the United States Olympic Team are the (unique) highest ranked team at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. It will resolve ambiguously if the Tokyo Olympics do not take place. It will resolve negatively if any team achieves a higher or equal ranking to the US team.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.17000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:22.993Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 98, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-08-08T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:24.457Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 122, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will the value of 1 bitcoin fall to $1,000 or less before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3821/bitcoin-extremes-will-the-value-of-1-bitcoin-fall-to-1000-or-less-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth $1,000 USD or less before 1 January 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at less than $1,000 USD at any time after this question opens, and before 1 January 2025.\nA flash crash or market manipulation will suffice to resolve the question (so long as the genuine trading price is within the threshold).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:25.793Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 639, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:27.187Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 70, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:28.819Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6571/sota-one-shot-on-miniimagenet-2026-12-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2026-12-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:30.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-12-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:31.181Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 103, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will 30 Kalshi markets be open to the general public for trading?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6855/when-will-kalshi-launch-30-markets/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Founded in 2018, Kalshi is a startup that has regulator approval to host prediction markets. They have received a $30M Series A funding round led by Sequoia Capital and are supposed to launch this month (March 2021): [Kalshi Lands $30 Million Series A to take Investment Platform Live](https://www.pymnts.com/news/investment-tracker/2021/kalshi-30m-series-a/)\nThe company itself has not confirmed specific launch dates on social media:\n[Launch Date - r/Kalshi](https://www.reddit.com/r/Kalshi/comments/lyhw8k/launch_date/)\n[Kalshi (@Kalshi)/Twitter](https://twitter.com/kalshi)\nWhen will Kalshi be open to the general public for trading?\nThe question will resolve true if a regular US citizen can create a new account and is allowed to begin trading in at least 30 different markets. It will resolve true even if there is a mandatory waiting period for new accounts. It will not trigger resolution if users are given a \"coming soon\" banner instead of access to 30+ markets.\nThe service must be open to adults physically located in the United States, and must not require the possession of any particular credential or qualification, save for any provided by the service itself. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:32.337Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 32, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-15T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-03-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:33.648Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 303, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.35, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.65, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:37.513Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 121, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6636/biden-eoy-approval-rating-to-exceed-500/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is serving as the 46th and current president of the United States. According to [FiveThirtyEight’s average of all polls](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), the majority of those polled approved of his presidency (as the time of writing this question).\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at Slow Boring, is, as of writing this question, 65% confident that Joe Biden will end the year with an approval rating above 50%. This is up from the 60% in his December [blog post (paywalled)](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that originally showcased this prediction.\nOn 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average proportion of those polled who approve of Biden's presidency exceed 50.0%?\nThis question resolves if the [FiveThirtyEight average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) of “all polls” for the day 2021-12-31 indicates that the proportion of those polled who approve exceed the proportion of those polled who disapprove. This question resolves the earliest as of 1th of January, 2022, to account for reporting delays.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:38.807Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 126, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.7, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:40.152Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 104, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro based on Apple silicon in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6644/apple-to-fail-to-deliver-own-silicon-mac/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mac_transition_to_Apple_Silicon), Apple announced its first Macs based on Apple Silicon processors in November of 2020. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that that Apple will not release a new Mac Pro powered by Apple silicon in 2021 (70% confident).\nWill Apple fail to deliver a new Mac Pro workstation based on Apple silicon in 2021?\nThis question will resolve negatively if it is possible to purchase a 2021-issue Mac Pro workstation that ships before the end of 2021 on [apple.com](http://apple.com). The product in question must be a Mac Pro, it must be sold to consumers in the United States, and must list \"Apple Silicon\" (or some equivalent assertion) in its specifications.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:41.392Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 72, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.1, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.9, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:42.635Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 234, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:43.961Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 118, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6536/2020-philpapers-survey-results-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are planned a a second survey, which was planned to be conducted in February 2020. Its results have yet to be published. \nThe 2020 PhilPapers Survey are also a subject of a [Metaculus question series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--philpaper-surveys).\nWhen will the 2020 PhilPapers Survey results be publicly available?\nThis resolves as the date when the results are first made publicly available (via any platform). If the results are not made available by 2024-02-11, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:45.493Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 138, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-11T16:13:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-02-11T16:13:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6792/peace-in-yemen-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The Civil War in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2014%E2%80%93present)) is a conflict initiated in 2014 between the Houthi Movement and Yemeni President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi. In the time since, 200,000 people have been killed, 100,000 civilians have died of starvation or cholera, and millions have been displaced. The war represents not just the internal political struggles of Yemen, but also a proxy conflict between Iran (supporting the Houthis) and Saudi Arabia (supporting the Hadi government), with support from the United States via Saudi Arabia.\nIn March 2019, US Congress voted to end support for the Saudi-led campaign, but this action was vetoed by US President Donald Trump. On Feb 4th, shortly after his inauguration, President Joe Biden cut support for the Saudi-led campaign. With Biden's other [attempts at opening negotiations with Iran](https://apnews.com/article/biden-iran-nuclear-deal-d261fbe927984d9328db0e0f74b62410), it's possible the US may be motivated enough to negotiate a peace agreement.\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, Dylan Matthews gives this a [60% of occurring this year](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021):\nThe biggest development is Joe Biden’s election. The US is not the main actor in the civil war, but it is an important actor for the support it has given Saudi Arabia (including [actual special forces troops on the ground](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/03/us/politics/green-berets-saudi-yemen-border-houthi.html)). [Bipartisan pressure from Congress](https://www.vox.com/2019/9/10/20849004/trump-yemen-war-saudi-arabia-mbs-ndaa) to end support for the Saudi air war has been mounting throughout Trump’s term, and a president less close to Saudi de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman seems likelier to yield to that pressure.\nThe Biden campaign in fact [promised to end support for the Saudis](https://www.justsecurity.org/73798/biden-must-stick-to-his-pledge-to-end-us-support-for-the-yemen-war/) in Yemen, and incoming senior administration officials — Secretary of State-designate Antony Blinken, Director of National Intelligence-designate Avril Haines, National Security Adviser-designate Jake Sullivan, and UN Ambassador-designate Linda Thomas-Greenfield — [signed an open letter](https://twitter.com/SPMiles42/status/1330741626734604289) urging the same.\nWill there be a cease-fire or peace agreement in the Yemeni Civil War by 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a 30-day period in 2021 of cease-fire or peace in over 90% of territory in Yemen, without unambiguous violations (aggressive violence not condemned or reprimanded by the aggressor leadership).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.41, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:46.712Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 31, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-16T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-04T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Open Courts Act become law?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5884/pacer-to-become-free/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The House has passed the bipartisan [Open Courts Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8235), which establishes a new system to provide free access to federal court records.\nWill the Open Courts Act become law?\nThis question resolves positively if the Open Courts Act becomes law before the end of 2021. If the Open Courts Act is not passed or is significantly amended, any such law (passed by the end of 2021) which enables free access to PACER will resolve this question positively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:47.980Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 88, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-25T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T22:47:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:47:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:49.251Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 146, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4739/will-the-major-las-vegas-casinos-shut-down-again-due-to-an-increase-in-covid-19-cases/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Following the COVID-19 pandemic, Las Vegas casinos started to close down in mid-March. On March 17, Nevada's governor [ordered all non-essential businesses to close](https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/sisolak-to-order-statewide-closure-of-non-essential-businesses-including-casinos-following-in-footsteps-of-other-states). On June 4, the [Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace](https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-06-04/after-historic-casino-closure-gambling-returns-to-las-vegas) casinos re-opened. \nThere are currently rumors that the casinos will be [shut down again](https://vitalvegas.com/some-las-vegas-casinos-could-temporarily-close-again-due-to-covid-19-concerns/) due to a rise in coronavirus cases.\nWill the major Las Vegas casinos shut down again due to an increase in Covid-19 cases?\nThe question resolves positively if, at some point in time between this question's open date and May 2021, all 3 of the Wynn, Bellagio and Caesar's Palace are simultaneously closed to the general public due to Covid-19, as reported by a credible source.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:50.489Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 545, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-01T21:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T21:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:51.657Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 160, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:52.807Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 89, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Roe v. Wade be formally overturned within 10 years of Justice Kennedy’s retirement?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1011/will-roe-v-wade-be-formally-overturned-within-10-years-of-justice-kennedys-retirement/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Effective July 31, 2018, Supreme Court Justice Robert Kennedy will retire. This announcement sparked concerns in American left-wing media that the Supreme Court will be left with a right-wing skew that might jeopardize important left-wing jurisprudence. Most notably, there are concerns that [Roe v. Wade,](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roe_v._Wade) the decision which forbade abortion restrictions, will be overturned. \nWill Roe vs. Wade be reversed? \nWe specify this as follows. Within 10 years of Kennedy's retirement, will the SCOTUS uphold a state or federal law that bans elective abortions at least at some point before the 20th week of a pregnancy?\nResolution is positive if, before the stipulated date, \n1) SCOTUS accepts to hear a case in which at least one of the following statements holds: \n1.1. A woman has been convicted* of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for seeking an abortion at some point before the 20th week, for consenting to that abortion, and/or for having such an abortion. \n1.2. A medical professional (nurse, doctor, etc.) has been convicted of a felony, misdemeanor or infraction for performing or attempting to perform an abortion at some point before the 20th week with the consent of the woman.\n1.3 A clinic, hospital or other medical center has been closed by authorities on the basis of a federal or state ban on performing abortions at some point before the 20th week (but not because of regulations requiring specialized facilities, giving information to the patient, or other factors not involving an outright ban on performing the abortions). \n1.4. A woman asked the federal courts to allow them to have an abortion before the 20th week despite a state or federal ban on the procedure. \nAND \n2) SCOTUS upholds the laws banning abortions in at least one of the cases described in 1.1-1.4, even if it might overturn one or more convictions for other reasons (e.g., procedural errors in the specific cases). \n*In case the term \"convicted\" is not correct with regard to infractions, it's stipulated that any punishment for an infraction will also count, regardless of the legal terminology.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:54.383Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 393, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-07-03T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-31T04:00:54Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-07-31T04:00:35Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:55.716Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 122, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -34267,7 +35317,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:05.307Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:56.920Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 494, "resolution_data": { @@ -34280,44 +35330,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Tesla's 2025 vehicle production?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6601/2025-tesla-vehicles-produced/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In its 2020 Q4 report, [Tesla Motors](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_motors) reported they produced 509,737 vehicles in 2020. They reported 367,500 in their [Q4 2019 report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2019-vehicle-production-deliveries) and 245,240 vehicles in their [Q4 2018 Report](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000).\nThis question asks: how many vehicles will tesla report producing in 2025?\nTesla Motors has [suggested](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/27/tesla-tsla-earnings-q4-2020.html) they can maintain a 50% rate of production growth which would suggest they would ship over 3.5 Million vehicles in 2025.\nIf Tesla does not report production for 2025, Metaculus may substitute figure from the [OICA](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organisation_Internationale_des_Constructeurs_d%27Automobiles) when they become available even if that delays resolution of this question.\nWill count toward the total: street legal automobiles/trucks/vans with 4 or more wheels.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:07.371Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 69, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-10-15T22:50:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-03-15T22:52:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What fraction of High Impact Athletes pledge-takers will maintain it through the end of 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6005/fraction-of-hia-pledges-still-active-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. After [launching](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Fm3HWDZKtwdkvBzGL/introducing-high-impact-athletes) at the end of November, their website now lists 20 professional athletes who have taken the pledge.\nTwo questions about the success of their first year are: [Total donated by HIA athletes by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6003/total-donated-by-hia-athletes-by-end-of-2021/) [Number of HIA pledges by end of 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/)\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of athletes who take the pledge before the end of 2021 will maintain it through the end of 2024?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as 0, not as ambiguous.\nFor athletes to count as having taken the pledge before 2021, they must be counted in [this](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/) question. For them to count as still active at the end of 2024, they must have maintained at least their original commitment continuously until the end of 2024. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:09.087Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will renewable energy contribute 25.00%, or less, to global electricity production in the calendar year 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3593/will-renewable-energy-contribute-2500-or-less-to-global-electricity-production-in-the-calendar-year-2030/", @@ -34335,9 +35347,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:11.094Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:58.259Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-05T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -34348,25 +35360,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5367/democracy-in-kyrgyzstan/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Kyrgystan currently has a [democracy index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) of 4.89 and is considered a \"hybrid regime\" meaning elements of democracy and authoritarianism co-exist. \nAfter what many viewed as a flawed election, protests have [occured]() across the country and the results of the election have been [annulled](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-54432030).\nWhat will the democracy index of Kyrgyzstan be in 2022?\nThis question will resolve to the democracy of Kyrgystan as reported by the [Economist Intelligence Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economist_Intelligence_Unit) in its 2022 report. If no report is published in 2022 by the EIU, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:12.855Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Facebook block links to Bitchute before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5635/facebook-block-links-to-bitchute-before-2023/", @@ -34384,9 +35377,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:14.663Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:13:59.542Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-12T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -34398,118 +35391,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will a country adopt Universal Basic Income?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6818/date-any-country-adopts-ubi/", + "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "---based on [the original question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2728/when-will-a-country-adopt-universal-basic-income/) authored by [nagolinc](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/106736/) \nUniversal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently [Andrew Yang](https://www.yangforny.com/policies/a-basic-income-for-new-york-city), candidate for Mayor of New York City, has advocated for a payment of $2,000 annually to 500,000 NYC residents (and as candidate for US president, advocated for $12,000 annually for all Americans). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:16.647Z", + "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:01.177Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, + "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-17T04:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-03-14T20:35:35.109000Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-02T15:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6807/us-building-permits-april-2021/", + "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Building permits](https://marketrealist.com/2015/02/understanding-building-permits-impact-homebuilders/#:~:text=Along%20with%20housing%20starts%2C%20building,government%20during%20a%20given%20month.) are a key indicator of the health of the US housing market as they provide an estimate of the number of new housing units authorized by the government in any given month. Larger numbers of permits reflect an increase in the total planned investment in the housing market in the months to come, indicating expectations for economic growth and expansion, while lower numbers can signal a potential downturn in the economy.\n[Peaking previously](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/02/18/new-residential-building-permits-up-another-10-4-in-january) on September 1, 2005, at approximately 2.5 million a month, the Great Recession saw a large drop in the number of building permits issued, to just over 500,000 per month in 2009. However, stabilizing economic health and increased investment in the housing market pushed the number of building permits per month continually upward over the last decade. Despite the economic hardships of the pandemic in 2020, the number of new permits reached 1.881 million in January 2021, the highest level since 2005.\nWhat will be the total number of new US building permits issued in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the total number of new building permits issued (in millions) in total for the month of April. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau.\nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/building-permits).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:18.656Z", + "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.54, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:03.307Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 985, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-17T18:46:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-18T18:46:00Z" + "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the minimum unemployment rate in the United States for calendar year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5735/minimum-us-unemployment-rate-for-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Note that much of the text for this question has been copied from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3987/what-will-be-the-peak-unemployment-rate-in-the-united-states-for-calendar-year-2020/).\nIn February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, unemployment rose to 14.7%. By October, unemployment was on track to rapidly return to record lows, as it had reached 6.9%.\nThis question asks: For the calendar year 2021, what will be the lowest monthly unemployment rate reached in any month?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Employment Situation report. Only the first number issued by the BLS for each month counts.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:20.731Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 187, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-20T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-15T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of? [stronger operationalization]", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is a duplicate of [this one](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) with a stronger operationalization for artificial general intelligence, and including robotic capabilities. I will copy relevant parts of that question to this one.\nSince the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive.\nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100.\nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first [strong and robotic] AGI be first developed and demonstrated?\nWe will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all completable by at least some humans.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the Loebner Gold Prize. The gold prize is reserved for, \"the first bot that can pass an extended Turing Test involving textual, visual, and auditory components.\"\n--- \nHas general robotic capabilities, of the type able to autonomously, when equipped with appropriate actuators, satisfactorily assemble a (or the equivalent of a) [circa-2020 de Agostini 1:8 scale automobile model](https://www.model-space.com/us/large-scale-model-kits-1.html).\n--- \nHigh competency at a diverse fields of expertise, as measured by achieving at least 75% accuracy in every task and 90% mean accuracy across all tasks in the Q&A dataset developed by [Dan Hendrycks et al.](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300).\n--- \nBe able to take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python. In particular, we'll ask that in at least 9 out of 10 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the \"intermediate\" section of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task.\nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on a Q&A task, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during model assembly. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n(Edited 2020-10-15 to strengthen programming task and weaken construction task.)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:22.756Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-10T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What year will the 2˚C climate threshold be crossed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\". Many experts were (and are) skeptical about this being feasible. Hence, it was asked whether there would be [ 5 consecutive years in which the global temperature was at least 2 ˚C above pre-industrial levels by 2100](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/). As of the writing of this question, the Metaculus community assigns an 80% probability to this happening. The year of comparison chosen was 1880.\nHere, it is asked: In what year will the average global temperature be at least 2 ˚C above the 1880 value for the first time?\nNote that the answer to this question could be never and that a non-never resolution could occur without triggering a positive resolution to the previously mentioned binary question. In the case of a non-never resolution, December 31st of the first year to achieve 2 ˚C warming shall be used as the resolution date.\nData for resolution shall come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalized relative to the 1951-1980 baseline and 1880 stands at -0.19, so the critical value to look for is 1.81 (for temperature anomaly). It is possible, though, that the linked-to data source will no longer be available in a few years, in which case the best alternative (as of the judgement of Metaculus staff) shall be used for resolution.\nClosing date is set to 2025, but should resolution triggering information become available earlier, the question shall close retroactively one year prior to that information becoming available. (In all cases in which the question was still open at some point within one year of the information becoming available.)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:24.790Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 149, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-31T17:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6679/correlation-of-progress-in-subfields-of-ai/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Metaculus hosts a number of questions pertaining to progress on specific artificial intelligence problems. As of early 2021, the community predictions on these questions suggest that progress on these metrics will be steady over the coming decade with prediction medians ranging over the 2020s and early 2030s.\nIf progress across subfields of AI is independent, then progress towards the development of AGI seems likely to be more predictable than if not. Outside of Metaculus, researchers have examined the [likelihood of discontinuous progress around the development of AGI](https://aiimpacts.org/likelihood-of-discontinuous-progress-around-the-development-of-agi/) which would involve a correlated jump in progress across subfields of AI.\nHow correlated will progress be across subfields of AI as determined by Metaculus?\nFor the below 15 Metaculus questions, what will be the median pairwise correlation (Pearson's r) between the movement of their community median estimates, X^q? For each question we will generate a corresponding random variable, X^q, by discretizing the prediction window into 4 month periods and calculating the change in median for that question. Denoting the community median for question q on date t by CM(q)(t), the observed values of X^q will be: where q ranges over the below questions, and t ranges over the period 2021-06-01 to 2025-01-01 in 4 month intervals. \n1-- \n[Date when AI passes the laugh test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3020/when-will-an-ai-pass-the-laugh-test/)\n2-- \n[Date machine-kindergartner parity in LEGO](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/404/how-long-until-machine-kindergartner-parity-in-lego-construction/)\n3-- \n[Date image recognition robust vs adversarials](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2644/when-will-image-recognition-be-made-robust-against-unrestricted-adversary/)\n4-- \n[Date when AI outperforms humans on reasoning ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4232/when-will-ai-out-perform-humans-on-argument-reasoning-tasks/)\n5-- \n[When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/)\n6-- \n[Date AI achieves ≥98th percentile Mensa score](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3698/when-will-an-ai-achieve-a-98th-percentile-score-or-higher-in-a-mensa-admission-test/)\n7-- \n[When will multi-modal ML out-perform uni-modal ML?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4235/when-will-multi-modal-ml-out-perform-uni-modal-ml/)\n8-- \n[AI competence in diverse fields of expertise](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5276/ai-competence-in-diverse-fields-of-expertise/)\n9-- \n[Date AI defeats top-10 StarCraft 2 players ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/)\n10- \n[When will AI understand \"I Want My Hat Back\"?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/)\n11- \n[AI wins IMO Gold Medal](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)\n12- \n[Metaculus users riding self-driving taxis ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/metaculus-users-self-driving-taxis/)\n13- \n[Date of First AGI - strong](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of-stronger-operationalization/)\n14- \n[Date first AGI is publicly known.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n15- \n[Computer as author in Annals of Mathematics?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4880/computer-as-author-in-annals-of-mathematics/)\n16- \n[When will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/)\nTo avoid confusion between this question and the other Metaculus questions to which we refer, we use 'MQ' (meta question) to refer to this question in the following. If any of the 15 relevant Metaculus questions resolves before the MQ resolution date (including ambiguous resolution), that question will be removed from MQ i.e. the pairwise correlations between that question and the remaining questions will be excluded from the resolution calculation. If more than 8 of the listed questions resolve before this question resolves, then this question will resolve as ambiguous.\nHere's another way of describing how the resolution value of this question will be calculated:\n1--We take the 4-month change over question medians for every linked question. \n2--These changes yield one random vector per time period, i.e. X_t with coordinates corresponding to questions, \n3--At 2025-01-01 compute the correlation matrix for this set of 10 observed vectors. \n4--Take the median over the below-the-diagonal values of this matrix (the median of 105 correlations). \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:26.595Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 22, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel following the Israeli legislative election of 2021?", @@ -34528,7 +35467,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:29.988Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:05.062Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 279, "resolution_data": { @@ -34558,7 +35497,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:31.856Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:06.352Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 113, "resolution_data": { @@ -34571,63 +35510,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 7th parameter L: For how many years does a civilization remain detectable?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1343/drakes-equation-7th-parameter-l/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is the seventh question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be assessing the seventh parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the average length of time, in years, that civilizations capable of being detected remain detectable.\nIt could be very short since the technology for radio and nuclear weapons emerge fairly close together. It could also be very long if a civilization (even a relatively short-lived one) were to release a lot of later-detectable and widespread artifacts. \nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:33.654Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 238, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027-in-millions-of-usd/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generated [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) in the year ending April, 2018.\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2027. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2030, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2027 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3077/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2030/)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:35.925Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5938/multi-modal-ml-2020-12-14-to-2021-06-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal machine learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:37.801Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 196, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Scotland vote to leave the UK in the next referendum?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5029/will-scotland-vote-to-leave-the-uk-in-the-next-referendum/", @@ -34645,7 +35527,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:40.149Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:08.828Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -34658,32 +35540,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6192/maximum-compute-in-ai-experiment-2031-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy By January 1st 2031, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:42.371Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 122, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-14T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What percentage of U.S. adults will self-report to follow a vegan diet in 2028?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3388/what-percentage-of-us-adults-will-self-report-to-follow-a-vegan-diet-in-2028/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Dietary veganism is the practice of abstaining from the consumption of animal products (including dairy and egg products). Veganism may be adopted for various reasons. Objections to eating might might arise out of concerns for [animal welfare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating), [animal rights](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_rights), or be borne out of [religious beliefs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism_and_religion). Other motivations for vegetarianism include [health-related](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Health_effects), [environmental](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_vegetarianism), [cultural](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vegetarianism#Demographics), [aesthetic](http://www.peacecafeangkor.org/vegetarian.htm) or [economic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_vegetarianism) ones.\nIn [a 2019 national survey of 2,027 U.S. adults aged 18 and older](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll), commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group, 2% of respondents self-reported as dietary vegans.\nIn a major poll of adults in the U.S. done in 2028, what percent will self-report to follow a vegan diet?\nResolution\nFor the purpose of this question, self-reporting any vegetarian status amounts to agreeing with the proposition \"I never consume meat, fish, seafood, or poultry, dairy or eggs\". At least 2,000 adults representing a cross section of U.S. adults must be polled. The preferred source is a poll commissioned by the [Vegetarian Resource Group (VRG)](https://www.vrg.org/nutshell/faq.htm#poll). If surveys commissioned by the Vegetarian Resource Group are no longer admissible or are discontinued, an admin may decide to consult another polls if i) it polls a representable cross section of U.S. adults, and ii) it polls at least 2,000 adults, and iii) iii) respondents are asked whether they never eat meat, fish, seafood or poultry.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:44.480Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:10.433Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 222, "resolution_data": { @@ -34697,19 +35560,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "In 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6109/ea-donations-to-new-charities-in-2025/", + "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities. The Against Malaria Foundation was the most funded charity, with $1.1 million; followed by GiveWell, with $837,000.\nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of donated dollars will go to charities that did not exist in 2020?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nA charity is considered to exist at the date of whichever of the following conditions occurs first:\n1--The charity becomes a legally registered entity in at least one country. For the purposes of this question, a \"charity\" does not have to be a non-profit. (For example, an LLC that receives donations counts as a \"charity\".) \n2--The charity can receive public donations. (For example, a few organizations have been able to receive donations through the Centre for Effective Altruism before achieving registered charity status.) \nEdge cases:\n---If a charity founded in or before 2020 changes its name in 2021 or later, it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities where each original charity existed prior to 2021, then it is considered to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity exists as the result of a merger between charities, at least one of which was founded after 2020, then it is considered NOT to have existed in 2020. \n---If a charity that was founded in 2020 spins off a separate entity in 2021 or later, then the new entity is considered to have existed in 2020. \n", + "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:46.379Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:11.754Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-01-01T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -34732,9 +35595,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:48.271Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:13.090Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 219, + "numforecasts": 220, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -34745,553 +35608,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:50.124Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 242, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6304/us-semiconductor-fab-capacity-jan-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for January 2030, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for January 2030. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:52.065Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 103, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T16:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:53.973Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:55.768Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 109, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6512/outcome-of-spring-on-campus-housing-for-upenn/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The University of Pennsylvania decided to allow undergraduate students to come onto campus. They [announced](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/planning-penn%E2%80%99s-spring-2021-semester) this policy in October. Further details on their campus policies for the semester can be found [here](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcement/message-penn-community-0). However, the university has recently reported a [surge](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/content/dashboard) in cases among the undergraduate. This has led some to reflect on the possibility that the university might close the campus (see [this editorial](https://www.thedp.com/article/2021/02/upenn-compact-violations-covid-philadelphia-partying-ivy-league) from the school's newspaper). Thus, my question is whether the university will declare an Alert Level 4 (sending students home) before May 11 (the final day of the spring semester). \nWill the University of Pennsylvania send undergraduates back home this semester?\nThe university administration sends out a [campus message](https://coronavirus.upenn.edu/announcements) declaring an Alert Level 4, which closes campus, before the end of the spring semester.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:57.445Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-12T03:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5552/will-2021-be-a-happier-year-than-2020/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Hedonometer](https://hedonometer.org/) is a tool developed by the researchers Peter Dodds and Chris Danforth to gauge the valence of various corpora. Their index uses English Twitter data to calculate the level of positive valence in the English speaking world, which they call a sort of \"Dow Jones Index of Happiness\".\nAccording to their data, 2020 was the least happy year to date. It has a yearly average 5.90. By contrast, the Hedonometer for the years 2009 to 2016 never fell below 6.00.\nHistorical data [is available here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/184wJqCl5Rcc8I4QStUDLl3KwuJcRisjlyjm93zjLxdM/edit?usp=sharing).\nWill the (English speaking) world be happier in 2021 than in 2020?\nThis question resolves positively if the year-long average Hedonometer for 2021 is greater than the year-long average for 2020.\nNote: The Hedonometer tracks all Tweets in English, including from places that are not considered part of the \"English-speaking world\".\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.7, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.30000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:04:59.434Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-28T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:01.372Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 100, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6639/la-lakers-to-win-2021-nba-championship/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The National Basketball Association (NBA) Finals is the championship series for the NBA and the conclusion of its postseason.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 25% chance that the Lakers will win the NBA championship.\nWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2021 NBA championship?\nThis question resolves positively if credible media reports indicate that the LA Lakers have won the 2021 NBA championship. In case the 2021 NBA championship is cancelled, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:03.228Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 167, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.07, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9299999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:05.370Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 241, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5531/us-supreme-court-members-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Paul Christiano recently [wrote](https://www.facebook.com/paulfchristiano/posts/10224566865496919),\nI don't know how far you could reduce the administrative costs of growing the [Supreme Court of the United States]. I could imagine having only a few judges be full-time while most judges vote periodically by ballot. If the court is politically important and costs are low, then you could easily imagine growing the court to dozens, hundreds, and then thousands before you really changed the cost-benefit analysis.\nYou would eventually be bottlenecked by the availability of plausibly-qualified candidates under current standards. But I'm not aware of any real constitutional requirements to serve as a justice, and so you could have a race to the bottom on standards in parallel with a ballooning court.\nForeseeing that outcome, a party in power might decide to directly increase the size of the court to the point where further expansion would be prohibitively costly. (And each party might be inclined to initiate a giant expansion out of the fear that their opponents would do so the next time they had the chance.) So rather than doubling every ~20 years (or however often a new unified government is elected) we could just jump straight to a gigantic court.\nThe most absurd outcome would be an equilibrium in which a significant fraction of Americans served on the supreme court and voted directly on high-profile cases by ballot (perhaps at the same time that they vote on elected offices).\nHow many seats will be on the Supreme Court of the United States in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the number of seats on the Supreme Court of the United States as of midnight January 1st 2030, as determined by credible media reports.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:09.118Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-29T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:11.324Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 45, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will online poker die by 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5875/online-poker-dead-by-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2019, [Facebook and CMU beat pros at 6-max Texas Holdem using the equivalent of $150 of computer time](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribus-first-ai-to-beat-pros-in-6-player-poker/)\nPluribus achieves this result through several innovations on Libratus, the AI that beat human pros in two-player no-limit Hold’em in 2017, as well as other algorithms and code developed in Tuomas Sandholm’s Carnegie Mellon University research lab. In particular, Pluribus incorporates a new online search algorithm that can efficiently evaluate its options by searching just a few moves ahead rather than only to the end of the game. Pluribus also uses new, faster self-play algorithms for games with hidden information. Combined, these advances made it possible to train Pluribus using very little processing power and memory — the equivalent of less than $150 worth of cloud computing resources. This efficiency stands in stark contrast to other recent AI milestone projects, which required the equivalent of millions of dollars’ worth of computing resources to train.\nIn 2020, [Facebook and CMU published ReBel, a more general AI for games.](https://ai.facebook.com/blog/rebel-a-general-game-playing-ai-bot-that-excels-at-poker-and-more/)\nIn 2019, [Morgan Stanley downgraded the long term outlook for online poker because of the potential for bots:](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/superhuman-ai-bots-pose-a-threat-to-online-poker-firms-ms-says)\n“The (re)emergence of superhuman poker bots in the online ecosystem now appears to be a matter of when, not if,” analyst Ed Young wrote in a note.\nAccording to [https://www.pokerscout.com/](https://www.pokerscout.com/), as of December 2020 there are over 10 real money poker sites that have had >1000 cash players online during the last 24 hours.\nWill online poker die by 2030?\nThis question resolves negatively if at resolution time, there are at least two real money poker sites intended for humans with over 1000 cash players online at some point in the previous month, where one can play Texas Holdem with blinds of at least $10. Note that the 1000 players can be at any stakes. \nThis question resolves positively if there are fewer than two such sites.\nIf there are no sources tracking the number of online cash players simultaneously, then this resolves negatively if there are at least two such sites with a table at $10 stakes or above, and one can be seated at such a table within a minute of requesting. \nThe rules of Texas Holdem that are playable must be the same as the standard rules in 2020. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.12, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.88, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:13.188Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 146, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-12-07T01:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:14.950Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 69, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A [human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering, and scientific proposals since the 20th century.\nIn the early 21st century, numerous US, European, and Asian organizations were developing proposals for human missions to Mars, and [dozens of Mars mission plans have been devised](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans) over the decades since the dawn of spaceflight.\nThis question asks: When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first crewed vehicle touches down on Mars successfully. A 'successful' landing is defined, for the purposes of this question, as one in which at least one crew member survives the landing. A 'crewed vehicle' is defined here as containing at least one conscious flesh-and-bone human.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:17.255Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 160, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:19.207Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Let's define the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nThe [Collatz Conjecture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collatz_conjecture) is that the Collatz Program halts (and returns 1) for all positive integers.\nWhen will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved, either positively or negatively?\nTake into account the following statement which Paul Erdos may or may not have made about the Conjecture: \"Mathematics may not be ready for such problems\".\nThe question resolves with a date of publication in a major mathematics journal.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:21.170Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 122, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-06-25T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-06-21T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2520-06-21T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6678/vaccine-doses-administered-in-germany-by-july/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:23.038Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:22Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:24.839Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:54:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:26.730Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 98, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated mobile app before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2598/metaculus-web-app-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Will Metaculus release a dedicated app designed to run on a mobile device downloadable for Andriod or IOS before 2023?\nThis question resolves positive when a dedicated mobile app is released on the Google Play store or Apple's app Store, and publicly downloadable in at least one country before the 31st December 2022.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:28.700Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-09T04:02:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Human-machine intelligence parity by 2040?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research. \nMachine intelligence long surpassed human capability in numerical computation, application of algorithms, data processing, and games such as checkers and chess. In 2005-2015 dramatic improvements in [image recognition and classification](https://www.tensorflow.org/versions/r0.11/tutorials/image_recognition/index.html), [speech transcription](http://qz.com/812317/microsoft-msft-claims-its-speech-transcription-ai-is-now-better-than-human-professionals/), game playing (e.g. [Go](https://deepmind.com/research/alphago/) and [classic Atari](https://deepmind.com/research/dqn/)), and [automatic translation across many languages](http://translate.google.com) have approached or surpassed human levels. As of 2015 there is still a large gulf, however, in many intellectual capabilities. But for how long?\nAssume that prior to 2040, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three expert interviewers will interact with a candidate machine system (MS) and three humans (3H). The humans will be graduate students in each of physics, mathematics and computer science from one of the top 25 research universities (per some recognized list), chosen independently of the interviewers. The interviewers will electronically communicate (via text, image, spoken word, or other means) an identical series of exam questions of their choosing over a period of two hours to the MS and 3H, designed to advantage the 3H. Both MS and 3H have full access to the internet, but no party is allowed to consult additional humans, and we assume the MS is not an internet-accessible resource. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested third party. \nQuestion resolves positively if the machine system outscores at least two of the three humans on such a test prior to 2040.\nNote that this also effectively tests whether the internet as a whole functions as a human-level intelligence, in that a positive resolution indicates that the human participants are effectively superfluous. Resolves as ambiguous if no such tests are performed in the period 2035-2040.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.44999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:30.930Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 980, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-01T18:36:29Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.51, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.49, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:32.752Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 183, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the first human mission to Venus take place?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6703/date-of-first-human-visit-to-venus/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venus) is a terrestrial planet and is sometimes called Earth's \"sister planet\" because of their similar size, mass, proximity to the Sun, and bulk composition. It is radically different from Earth in other respects.\nIt has the densest atmosphere of the four terrestrial planets, consisting of more than 96% carbon dioxide. The atmospheric pressure at the planet's surface is about 92 times the sea level pressure of Earth, or roughly the pressure at 900m underwater on Earth. Venus has, by far, the hottest surface of any planet in the Solar System, with a mean temperature of 464 °C, even though Mercury is closer to the Sun.\nDue to its proximity to Earth, Venus has been a prime target for early interplanetary exploration. It was the first planet beyond Earth visited by a spacecraft ([Mariner 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mariner_2) in 1962), and the first to be successfully landed on (by [Venera 7](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera_7) in 1970). Venus' thick clouds render observation of its surface impossible in visible light, and the first detailed maps did not emerge until the arrival of the [Magellan orbiter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magellan_(spacecraft)) in 1991. Plans have been proposed for rovers or more complex missions, but they are hindered by Venus's hostile surface conditions.\nThe first robotic space probe mission to Venus, and the first to any planet, began with the Soviet [Venera program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venera) in 1961. The United States' exploration of Venus had its first success with the Mariner 2 mission on 14 December 1962, becoming the world's first successful interplanetary mission, passing 34,833 km above the surface of Venus, and gathering data on the planet's atmosphere. In the decades since, [a number of robotic missions to Venus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_missions_to_Venus) have taken place, including orbiters and landers.\n[Manned Venus Flyby](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_flyby) was a 1967–1968 NASA proposal to send three astronauts on a flyby mission to Venus in an Apollo-derived spacecraft in 1973–1974, using a gravity assist to shorten the return journey to Earth; but this proposed mission was never realized.\nAs of March 2021, no human missions to Venus have taken place, and none are actively being planned, but recent concepts have included the [High Altitude Venus Operational Concept](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_Altitude_Venus_Operational_Concept), which would involve [human crews exploring the Venusian atmosphere in dirigibles](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0az7DEwG68A&ab_channel=NASALangleyResearchCenter), and establishing floating outposts to allow for a long-term human presence on Venus. A detailed presentation on this proposal is available [here.](https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20160006329)\nWhen will the first human mission to Venus take place?\nThis question resolves as the first date on which conscious humans approach Venus within a distance of 1 million kilometres.\nThe humans must be awake and alert flesh-and-bone humans, not EMs or some non-corporeal instantiation of consciousness. They must not be in suspended animation, hibernation, or any sort of minimally-conscious state. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:36.281Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2033-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2075-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Any progress in human lifespan enhancement by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1002/any-progress-in-human-lifespan-enhancement-by-2100/", @@ -35309,9 +35625,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:38.110Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:14.337Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 321, + "numforecasts": 322, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-30T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -35328,7 +35644,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The last increase to the federal minimum wage was July 24, 2009. [From 1997 to 2007](https://www.dol.gov/agencies/whd/minimum-wage/history/chart), the minimum wage was $5.15 until it was incrementally increased to its current level, $7.25 per hour.\nIn terms of the USD's purchasing power, the minimum wage has been significantly higher in the past. In 1968, the minimum wage was $1.60 per hour, which in 2020 dollars would be aproximately $12.00.\nJoe Biden (presumed president-elect) has [pledged to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/).\nWhen will the US Federal Minimum Wage be Raised?\nThe resolution will occur on the date that the increase takes effect. Any increase over $7.25 USD (not inflation-adjusted) will be a valid resolution.\nIf the minimum wage is reduced or abolished, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question will be retroactively closed 3 days before a vote in the senate which passes legislation raising the minimum wage. A vote which does not pass will not close the question. The question will then be resolved on the date the legislation takes effect. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:39.913Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:15.620Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -35342,64 +35658,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.35, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.65, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:41.632Z", + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:16.825Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:44.909Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 113, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?", @@ -35407,7 +35682,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words. Due to Google and OpenAI work big per-trained language models gained recognition as multitask and few-shot learners.\nRecently OpenAI released Generative Pretrained Transformer 3, commonly known by its abbreviated form GPT-3. GPT-3 is currently the largest language model and the successor to GPT-2. It was first announced in May 2020. OpenAI stated that full version of GPT-3 contains 175 billion parameters, two orders of magnitude larger than the 1.5 billion parameters in the full version of GPT-2. [OpenAI released full GPT-2 1.5B model on November 5, 2019 on modified MIT license](https://openai.com/blog/gpt-2-1-5b-release/). However, GPT-3 is not yet available.\nThis question asks when will a language model with at least 100B parameters be open sourced including for commercial use?\nThe question will resolve on a date when such model will be first available for download and is licensed in a way that allows free of charge commercial use. This explicitly includes licenses like MIT, Apache, BSD, GNU etc. and their derivatives as long as free of charge commercial use is allowed. Additionally, the model must at least partially match capabilities of GPT-3, especially good few-shot learning ability. Ongoing attempts at recreating GPT-3 should not be included until they are declared as finished by the authors.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:46.737Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:18.015Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 175, "resolution_data": { @@ -35421,38 +35696,38 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "title": "What will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5909/covid-vaccine-doses-bought-by-us-by-june/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "description": "As of 09 December, Operation Warp Speed (OWS) has purchased [800 million COVID-19 vaccine doses for the U.S.](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html). This includes: 300M doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine candidate, 100M doses of the Novavax candidate, 100M doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate, 100M doses of the Sanofi/GSK candidate, 100M doses of the Johnson & Johnson candidate, and 100M doses of the Moderna candidate. The most recent purchase by OWS occurred on [11 August 2020](https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2020/08/11/trump-administration-collaborates-with-moderna-produce-100-million-doses-covid-19-investigational-vaccine.html). [OWS](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/fact-sheet-operation-warp-speed.pdf) is a public-private partnership by the U.S. government with the aim of facilitating and accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.\nWhat will be the total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses purchased by the U.S. as of 30 June 2021?\nThe OWS [“Fact Sheet,”](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/explaining-operation-warp-speed/index.html) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If this page is no longer regularly updated, then the most recent public announcement by OWS will be considered. For resolution, all of the vaccine doses that have been announced to be purchased for the U.S. up until 30 June 2021 will be added up. If a purchase agreement announcement uses the “at least” terminology, then the lowest number of vaccine doses will be considered — for instance, on 21 May OWS announced it had made a purchase to secure “at least” 300 million doses of the AstraZeneca/Oxford for the U.S. and this question will consider this to be a total of 300 million doses of said vaccine.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:48.800Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:19.500Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 139, + "numforecasts": 244, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-24T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/", + "title": "How many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5892/ai-ethics-and-algo-bias-publications-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", + "description": "The ethics of artificial intelligence is the branch of the ethics of technology specific to machine learning and AI systems.\nHow many papers on AI ethics and algorithmic bias will be published by the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the total number of publications on arXiv on 2022-12-31 at 11:59 PM, as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, AI ethics and algorithmic bias e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"AI ethics\", \"AI fairness\", \"racial bias\", \"gender bias\", \"algorithmic bias\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+ethics%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+fairness%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22algorithmic+bias%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22gender+bias%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22racial+bias%22&terms-4-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). As of writing this question, the query yields 291 results.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:50.799Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:20.695Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 23, + "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-06-10T20:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T21:03:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -35475,9 +35750,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:52.720Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:21.878Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 177, + "numforecasts": 178, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-18T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -35505,7 +35780,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:55.113Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:23.486Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 386, "resolution_data": { @@ -35524,9 +35799,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the [dearMoon project](https://dearmoon.earth/) flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch [in 2018](https://web.archive.org/web/20170227214045/http://www.spacex.com/news/2017/02/27/spacex-send-privately-crewed-dragon-spacecraft-beyond-moon-next-year) on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again.\nBesides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle [in consideration](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus [predicts](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2818/when-will-nasas-sls-first-launch-a-person-to-the-moon/) that mission will occur in 2028.\nWhen will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon?\nThis question resolves positively when a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, [Apollo 13](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_13) carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.\nIn line with [an earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), if SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the Lunar efforts of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2051, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:56.848Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:24.706Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 25, + "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -35537,13 +35812,51 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many people will die as a result of the most deadly earthquake in the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4812/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-most-deadly-earthquake-in-the-2020s/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On Friday March 11, 2011, the [Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami) hit Japan causing unprecedented economic damage, and killing 15,899 people. Just one year prior, however, the 2010 Haiti earthquake was even more devastating, with a death toll estimated to be 100,000 according to [the U.S. Geological Survey](https://web.archive.org/web/20130507101448/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/world/most_destructive.php).\nSee [this Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll#Deadliest_earthquakes) for the deadliest earthquakes in history. How many people will die in the deadliest Earthquake after midnight January 1st 2020 and before midnight January 1st 2030? The final resolution is determined by estimates from the following, when provided within 2 years of the earthquake, and in order of priority,\n1-- \nThe national government of the nation widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n2-- \nThe U.S. Geological Survey.\n3-- \nThe local government widely recognized to have been most impacted by the earthquake.\n4-- \nA prominent scientific study. The one with the most citations according to Google Scholar wins.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:26.000Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 109, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6638/unemployment-rate-for-december-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In April of 2020, unemployment shot up to 14.8% according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE), which is the highest unemployment rate for any given month that the US has seen since at least 1948. However, the US economy is quickly recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced economic shock. As of January 2021, the unemployment rate was just 6.3%. \nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), predicted on December 28 that it’s 80% likely that the year-end unemployment rate will be below 5%. Similarly, he assigned a 80% chance to the number remaining above 4%. In other words, he was 60% confident that the year-end unemployment rate will fall somewhere between 4% and 5%.\nWhat will the monthly unemployment rate for December 2021 be?\nThis question resolves as the unemployment rate for December 2021, according to [BLS data](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:27.122Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 100, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "In the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6718/-covid-cases-that-should-be-sequenced/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Multiple distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new). The U.S. CDC is [currently tracking](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) three [variants of concern (VOCs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) — these are: B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. New [variants of interest (VOIs)](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/covid-19-weekly-epidemiological-update) have also recently emerged — of particular interest is the B.1.526, a variant identified in New York that [may](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.23.21252259v1.full.pdf) [escape](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.431043v2.article-info) preexisting immunity and/or immunity induced by current vaccines.\n[Genomic sequencing](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Fact-Sheet) is a technology that determines the genetic information of a sample. Sequencing enables public health officials to monitor the spread of VOCs and VOIs, as well as the emergence of new variants. It also enables the monitoring of trends relating to potential escape from vaccine-induced immunity after widespread vaccination and at a local level provides genomic epidemiological data on clusters of transmission and routes of transmission. \nThe U.S. currently has to date sequenced [less than 1%](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html) of confirmed COVID-19 cases, though the amount of sequencing being done is currently being [ramped up substantially](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/variant-surveillance/genomic-surveillance-dashboard.html).\nIn the context of community transmission, what will be the recommended minimum % of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced?\nThis question will resolve as the minimum CDC recommended percent of confirmed positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced that assumes [community transmission](https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200409-sitrep-80-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1b685d64_6). \nIf the CDC does not release such guidance before the end of 2021, then the most-cited paper that provides a recommendation on the minimum recommended percent of positive COVID-19 cases that should be sequenced in the context of community transmission will be consulted on 1 January 2022.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:05:58.826Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:28.453Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -35557,49 +35870,30 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/", + "title": "Before 2025, will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected to be due to collide with Earth before 2100?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1645/before-2025-will-an-asteroid-or-comet-estimated-to-be-at-least-50-meters-in-diameter-be-detected-to-be-due-to-collide-with-earth-before-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:00.722Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", + "description": "A stony asteroid 50 meters in diameter, with a density of 2600 , speed of 17 km/s, and an impact angle of [would have a kinetic energy equivalent to of 5.9 megatons of TNT](https://impact.ese.ic.ac.uk/ImpactEarth/ImpactEffects/) at atmospheric entry, and 5.2 megatons of TNT at an airburst altitude of 8.7 km (29,000 ft). This airburst energy is approximately 350 times that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. Needless to say, it would be a problem if this kind of event were to take place anywhere near a populated area.\nTo give a sense of scale, an object believed to be rougly 50 meters in diameter created [Meteor Crater / Barringer Crater](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Meteor_Crater) in Arizona approximately 50,000 years ago.\nThis question asks: Will an asteroid or comet estimated to be at least 50 meters in diameter be detected on a trajectory that would lead to a collision with Earth, with the collision due to occur before 1 January 2100, and the detection made before 1 January 2025? \nFor a positive resolution, the detection must be announced or corroborated by either the International Astronomical Union, NASA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, ESA, or a similarly competent authority on astronomy. Additionally, there must be at least 95% confidence with regard to the size, and collision date estimates. The collision probability needs to be at least 95% in the absence of human-initiated attempts to intervene, as confirmed by at least one competent authority on astronomy.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.95, + "probability": 0.9299999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:04.570Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:30.130Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 148, + "numforecasts": 242, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-12-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -35622,7 +35916,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:06.929Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:31.628Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { @@ -35635,32 +35929,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:08.872Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5575/cagr-of-global-ev-stock-2020-22/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Markets and Markets reports that:\n“The Electric Vehicles Market is projected to reach 26,951,318 units by 2030 from an estimated 3,269,671 units in 2019, at a CAGR of 21.1% during the forecast period. The base year for the report is 2018, and the forecast period is from 2019 to 2030.”\nThese numbers reflect the number of electric vehicles purchased in the global fleet. \nThe EV market is expected to grow quickly and at scale over the next decade, and understanding this growth will help plan out necessary charging infrastructure, the potential for loss in the oil markets, and the speed of change in consumer preferences.\nThe compound annual growth rate, or [CAGR](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cagr.asp), is a function of the ending value, beginning value, and the number of years between the two. While normally used to measure the rate of return on an investment, it can also be used to look at the growth rate of a number of other things.\nWhat’s the CAGR in the stock of EVs globally over the 2020-22 period?\nResolution criteria will be taken from [ZSW](https://www.zsw-bw.de/en/media-center/data-service.html#c8590) and will reflect the CAGR in the total global stock of electric vehicles. Previous years data can also be retrieved from this source from 2015-2019. If data is no longer available then this question will resolve ambiguously, or another source with reliable global EV stock estimates will be used. The CAGR will reflect the growth rate for the period of time between the beginning of 2020 until the beginning of 2022. \nData:\nUsing the numbers from ZSW for 2017 and 2019, and the equation mentioned above, the CAGR by the end of 2019 was approximately 52.1%. The CAGR between 2018 and 2019 by the end of 2019 was approximately 40.7%\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:10.696Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:32.837Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 53, "resolution_data": { @@ -35679,7 +35954,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since 2016, a [famine has been ongoing in Yemen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine_in_Yemen_(2016%E2%80%93present)) which started during the [Yemeni Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yemeni_Civil_War_(2015%E2%80%93present)). Over 17 million of Yemen's population are at risk, and over 3.3 million children and pregnant or lactating women suffer from acute malnutrition.\nAccording to the Norwegian Refugee Council, the famine in Yemen will soon reach \"biblical proportions\". The famine is being compounded by an outbreak of cholera, which is resulting in 5,000 new cases daily. Devastation of Yemeni infrastructure, health, water and sanitation systems and facilities by Saudi-led coalition air strikes led to the spread of cholera. UNICEF says that Saudi-led coalition airstrikes are deliberately targeting water systems in Yemen.\nIn October 2018, the United Nations warned that 13 million people face starvation in what could be [\"the worst famine in the world in 100 years.\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-middle-east-45857729/yemen-could-be-worst-famine-in-100-years) The following month, a report by Save the Children estimated that 85,000 children under the age of five have died from starvation.\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2022, how many people will be credibly estimated to have died as a result of the famine in Yemen, with that estimate provided by a major international organization such as the United Nations or UNICEF?\nIn case the relevant study has a quantified level of uncertainty in the form of a distribution, we shall take the median as the point estimate of the number of deaths. Because of the lack of timely reporting of accurate information, that estimate may be given at any time before 1 June 2022, but must be an estimate of deaths arising before 1 January 2022. In case substantially better estimates are released after this question resolves, we shall un-resolve the question, and re-resolving using the improved figures.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:12.835Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:34.874Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 298, "resolution_data": { @@ -35693,61 +35968,132 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/", + "title": "On what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6796/nyc-low-risk-date-for-covid/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", + "description": "After being a global epicenter for the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, a summer and early fall of low spread relative to much of the rest of the U.S., and a steep rise in the late fall and early winter, New York City is now seeing an unusually slow decline in COVID-19 cases and test positivity. This may be attributable to the B.1.526 variant, which [seems to elude](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jemimamcevoy/2021/03/07/fauci-virus-variant-thats-more-resistant-to-vaccine-spreading-efficiently-in-new-york/?sh=44e63b095cc4) some of the immunity given by both vaccines and having contracted the disease.\nThe New York Times evaluates risk levels in U.S. counties using cases per capita and test positivity rates. [Their tracker for New York City](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html) assessed the risk in the city as \"extremely high,\" the highest risk level, for the 67 days from December 29 to March 5 inclusive. March 6 was the first day that it instead read \"very high.\"\nOn what date will the New York Times COVID-19 tracker for New York City assess the risk as \"low\"?\nThe question resolves with the first date that reads as \"low risk\" on the [New York Times's NYC COVID-19 tracker](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/new-york-city-new-york-covid-cases.html). Note that the publication of the assessment takes place the following day: for example, the first \"very high risk\" date was March 6, but this was published on March 7. In that case, the question would resolve as March 6, not March 7. The question resolves ambiguously if the Times stops publishing the tracker or eliminates \"low risk\" as a category before ever assessing the risk as \"low.\"\nIf the Times changes its criteria or method for evaluating risk, the resolution is unaffected.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:14.576Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:36.097Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, + "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "title": "What will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5679/avg-daily-supply-motor-gasoline-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "description": "Ground motor transportation contributes heavily to global carbon emissions. A large part of this comes from the burning of fossil fuels in combustion vehicles, which are currently the majority of vehicles in the global fleet. \nHowever, as electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates increase with an expected market [CAGR of 41.7%](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/electric-vehicles-ev-market#:~:text=The%20global%20electric%20vehicle%20market,of%2041.5%25%202020%20to%202027.) between 2020 and 2025, the amount of gasoline purchased should decrease as consumers make the switch.\n[Gasoline purchases dipped](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) during the Great Recession, but have risen to over 9,000 barrels a day in 2019 (an increase of over 400 barrels). \nData: Data will be collected and provided through the Energy Information Association, which can be accessed [here](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=1949&end=2019&charted=16-12) with historical data from the 1940’s through 2019. Data can be downloaded from the site in table form as well.\nWhat will be the average daily supply of consumer motor gasoline in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from the US Energy Information Association (EIA) through their Total Energy Data section. [Table 3.5](https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/browser/index.php?tbl=T03.05#/?f=A&start=2007&end=2019&charted=16-12) with Petroleum Products Supplies By Type will supply the computed daily average for the year 2025 in 2026.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:16.529Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:37.427Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-09T22:18:49Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-12-30T22:12:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-06-01T21:12:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6776/will-ps5-outsell-nintendo-switch-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:18.284Z", + "description": "The Nintendo Switch in 2020 [far outsold](https://www.statista.com/statistics/1111604/video-games-consoles-unit-sales/) other gaming consoles in terms of unit sales.\nWith the arrival of new consoles from Sony and Xbox, we have to wonder if one of these consoles will outsell the Switch.\nIn January 2021, the Switch [continued to sell more units](https://venturebeat.com/2021/02/12/u-s-console-sales-just-had-the-best-january-in-more-than-a-generation/), however the PlayStation 5 gathered more revenue. PS5 sales have been hampered by [supply chain issues](https://www.ft.com/content/f7c089dc-515e-4387-82fd-ea0a49998650) which may or may not resolve during the year, and may or may not affect the Switch.\nWhile the Switch may seem unbeatable, PlayStation holds [4 of the top 6 spots](https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Best_selling_game_consoles) historically for total units sold.\nWill the PlayStation 5 sell more units than the Nintendo Switch in 2021?\nResults published by Sony and Nintendo will be used to resolve this question. For example, quarterly unit sales for the Switch [found here](https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/hard_soft/number.html) and quarterly sales for the PlayStation found [on page 9 of this PDF](https://www.sony.com/en/SonyInfo/IR/library/presen/er/pdf/20q3_supplement.pdf).\nOnly sales in the year 2021 count (this is not a question about lifetime sales).\nThe fiscal years of Sony/Nintendo do not align with the calendar year. This question is about the standard calendar year 2021, not the fiscal years. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.31, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.69, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:38.569Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-20T20:54:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T21:54:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5712/biden-2024-re-nomination/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "related question on Metaculus:\n---[By November 15, 2023, will President Biden officially declare his campaign for re-election?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6438/will-joe-biden-run-for-reelection/) \nPresident-elect Joe Biden [took office](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/11/05/oldest-president-joe-biden/6181672002/) as the oldest president to serve in the position. Reporting in [late 2019](https://www.politico.com/news/2019/12/11/biden-single-term-082129) indicated that Biden was signaling to aides that he would only serve one term as a \"transition figure\" between Trump and the next generation of Democratic leaders. However, following the 2020 Democratic convention, Biden said he was [\"absolutely\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/23/joe-biden-november-election-second-term) leaving open the possibility of running for a second term, and following the election, Biden's sister Valerie claimed he would [\"absolutely\"](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-election-2020/joe-biden-sister-valerie-second-term-run-again-b1720553.html) run again.\nWill Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee in 2024?\nThis question resolves positively if the 2024 Democratic National Convention nominates Joe Biden as its presidential nominee. It resolves negatively if Biden declines to run, dies in office, or is successfully challenged for the nomination. It resolves ambiguously if the 2024 Democratic National Convention does not occur, or if no nominee is selected at the 2024 DNC.\nThe number of delegates Biden wins in the primaries, or whether he remains the nominee on election day, is irrelevant to the resolution criteria. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:39.728Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 98, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-11T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5814/2022-us-house-midterm-election/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2020, Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives despite losing the Whitehouse, leaving the Democrats with the thinnest margin in decades. Historically, there is often a backlash against the winner of the presidential election during the first term, so majority control could flip. However, redistricting following the 2020 Census will have its effect too.\nIf Republicans win 218* seats or more in 2022, they will secure a majority in the house. Will that happen?\n435* seats will be contested in 2022 (most in November, but some runoffs are possible). The question resolves after enough races have been called by reliable media reports to give a majority to one party or another. In case of ongoing ambiguity, the question can resolve when the Congress convenes in January 2023 and certifies its membership.\nWill Republicans win control of the US House of Representatives in 2022?\nResolves true if Republicans^ win 50% + 1 or more seats in the US House. Resolves false if Democrats^ win 50% + 1 or more seats. If neither of those parties wins 50% + 1 or more (e.g. an unaligned 3rd party wins seats), then the question resolves ambiguously.\n.* If the total number of seats in the US House changes, then the number needed for a majority changes with it.\n.^ Independents who caucus with the Republicans will be counted as Republicans; likewise independents who caucus with Democrats. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.51, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.49, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:41.194Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 183, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-02T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-11-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-04T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What is the probability that Gore will defeat Bush in the 2000 US Presidential Election?", @@ -35755,7 +36101,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Bear with me, this is a thought experiment.\nImagine you are magically transported back in time and space such that from a perch at Alpha-centauri you are are (with a great telescope) observing Earth from November 1998 onwards.\nWhat is the probability (in percent) you attribute to Gore winning to 2000 US Presidential election (and becoming president)?\nThe \"magic\" is so as to avoid worrying about closed timelike curves, consistency conditions, etc. The alpha-centauri is so that you can have no causal influence on the proceedings.\nQualitatively different interesting possibilities here seem to me:\nA) p = 0%: The World is deterministic\nB) 0 < p < 1%: The World may be indeterministic, but the effect is very tiny.\nC) p > 1%: There is indeterminism and the effects are large enough to come into elections. We have to do a deeper dive that involves a combination of fun historical analysis with how and what would be affected by the indeterminacy.\nI'm writing a paper about this now and very interested in people's views and rationales.\nI've shoehorned this into Metaculus by making the resolution date far in the future (when the Magician appears plus two years), and in asking for the number so that people can distinguish 0% from tiny, and also spread their credence across different possibilities that translate into different possibilities.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:20.312Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:42.391Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 214, "resolution_data": { @@ -35768,36 +36114,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.21, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.79, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:22.291Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 159, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will there be at least 1,000 Ebola deaths in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6557/1000-ebola-deaths-in-2021/", @@ -35815,9 +36131,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:26.492Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:43.600Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -35828,6 +36144,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Tether collapse by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6656/tether-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is a controversial cryptocurrency with tokens issued by Tether Limited. It formerly claimed that each token was backed by one United States dollar, but on 14 March 2019 changed the backing to include loans to affiliate companies. The Bitfinex exchange was accused by the New York Attorney General of using Tether's funds to cover up $850 million in funds missing since mid-2018.\nWill Tether collapse by the end of 2021?\nThe market will resolve positively if any of these conditions are true:\n---Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days on the [Kraken exchange](https://trade.kraken.com/charts/KRAKEN:USDT-USD). This is because Kraken is one of the few exchanges that allows trading on the USDT-USD pair. \n---Tether's price as shown on [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether) falls below 0.50 USD continuosly for more than 7 days. \n---Trading any USDT pair on all the top 3 exchanges by volume will be suspended for more than 7 days. The exchanges are Binance, Huobi and OKEx. \n(The 7 day periods above will qualify if any part of it occurs in 2021, for example, between 2021-12-31 and 2022-01-07)\nThe market will also resolve positively in case all the top 3 exchanges will suspend any transactions for more than 7 days.\nThe period of 7 days can start any time before Dec 31 2021. Thus, it is possible that the period could end in 2022. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.21, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.79, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:45.103Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 159, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Jair Bolsonaro be president of Brazil on 2023-01-02?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6359/bolsonaro-president-of-brazil-in-2023/", @@ -35845,9 +36191,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:28.908Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:46.244Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 117, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -35859,42 +36205,91 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6959/war-in-donbass-2021/", + "title": "Will an anti-5G attack take a life in 2021 or 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6102/anti-5g-attack-to-take-life-in-20212022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "American and European media and political institutions are [drawing](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-border-concerning-united-states/) [attention](https://www.rferl.org/a/ukrainian-russian-military-buildup-border/31180563.html) to a Russian military buildup in the Donbass and Crimea. This is after several weeks of reports from [Ukrainian](https://strana.ua/news/322516-nastuplenie-vsu-na-donbasse-cheho-zhdat-ot-obostrenija-v-zone-oos.html), [Russian](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFUdFKgxkFk), and LDNR sources about a Ukrainian military buildup at the frontlines in Donbass, which had until now been little noticed in the West except in OSINT/[military watcher](https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1370418913641701379) circles. Old positions in the demarcation zones have been reoccupied by Ukrainian and NAF troops, and there are more frequent [exchanges](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html) of artillery fire.\nWill there be a renewal of intense fighting in the Donbass this summer?\nResolves positively if there are >250 Ukrainian military deaths in any given month within the next half year (until Oct 1, 2021, inclusive) on the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk oblasts of Ukraine.\nSource used will be [MemoryBook](http://memorybook.org.ua/indexfile/statmonth.htm) (reprinted on [Wikipedia page](https://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%92%D1%82%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B8_%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%85_%D1%81%D1%82%D1%80%D1%83%D0%BA%D1%82%D1%83%D1%80_%D0%B2%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%81%D0%BB%D1%96%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%BA_%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%96%D0%B9%D1%81%D1%8C%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D0%B2%D1%82%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%BD%D0%B5%D0%BD%D0%BD%D1%8F_%D0%B2_%D0%A3%D0%BA%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%97%D0%BD%D1%83) reprinting its stats), or another credible source should there be a strong consensus that this one has become incredible or obsolete.\n", + "description": "U.S. law enforcement and intelligence agencies [warned in May of 2020](https://www.wired.com/story/the-dhs-prepares-for-attacks-fueled-by-5g-conspiracy-theories/) of escalating threats against 5G infrastructure. British [telecoms masts have been burned](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse) and [British telecoms workers menaced](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/3/21276912/5g-conspiracy-theories-coronavirus-uk-telecoms-engineers-attacks-abuse); much the same at lesser scale has taken place in many other countries. Then on Christmas Day 2020 came [the bombing in Nashville](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Nashville_bombing) of an AT&T building by a lone wolf extremist, who took himself out in the blast, but no others.\nWill an anti-5G attack take another's life in 2021 or 2022?\nWill a non-perpetrator be killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology before January 1st, 2023 (Eastern time)?\nResolves positive on multiple credible media reports that a non-perpetrator has been killed in an attack motivated in large part by opposition to 5G wireless technology, anywhere in the world. The killing must be directly in the course of the attack itself, including the final approach towards the target. Killings incidental to the preparation of the attack, such as a premature explosion during the construction phase of a bombing, or the shooting death of a police officer trying to arrest a person later found to have been planning a bombing, do not trigger a positive resolution. In close cases, whether the 5G motivation is \"in large part\" is ultimately a judgment call by Metaculus or Metaculus's moderator(s) based on their summation of credible media reports. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:30.793Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:47.426Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-07T06:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T09:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-01T09:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-04-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the Dai stablecoin maintain a value of roughly $1 until July 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3431/will-the-dai-stablecoin-maintain-a-value-of-roughly-1-until-july-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the biggest problems with cryptocurrencies right now is their volatility. So-called 'stablecoins' aim to solve this by maintaining a stable price, usually compared to an asset like the US Dollar. \nThe currency Dai, created by the organisation [MakerDAO](https://makerdao.com/en/) and running on the [Ethereum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethereum) blockchain, is a popular stablecoin that tries to always be worth $1. Instead of being backed by a reserve of dollars, Dai can be created by anyone by locking up some ether (or other cryptocurrencies) as collateral for a loan in Dai. The ether is only released when the user pays back their loan, plus a Stability Fee. Dai holders can also earn the Dai Savings Rate which is funded by the fees. The Stability Fee and Dai Savings Rate are adjusted to keep the value of Dai at $1.\nIts predecessor Sai (formerly called Dai) has successfully kept a stable price throughout 2018 and (as of December 2019) still maintains it, despite volatility in the price of ether. The new version, Multi-Collateral Dai, was released in November 2019. \nWill Multi-Collateral Dai (or a future version of it) be worth around $1 consistently up to July 2023?\nThis resolves negatively if either Dai is worth over $1.10 continuously for any 2 week period or if it is worth less than $0.90 continuously for any 2 week period before 12:00 AM GMT on the 15th July 2023, according to a website like [Coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multi-collateral-dai/). \nIf MakerDAO has an Emergency Shutdown, it also resolves negatively.\nIt resolves positively otherwise.\nIf a newer version is released, then this question will be about the new version if and only if there is a direct way to exchange Dai for the new coin at a 1:1 rate (which was the case when Sai was upgraded to Multi-Collateral Dai).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.63, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.37, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:49.219Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 113, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-07-14T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6056/us-employment-of-ages-16-24-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nEconomic downturns and periods of unemployment significantly affect the younger members of the workforce. With COVID-19 hitting the industries which often employ younger workers, such as leisure and hospitality, employment for the age group of young workers (16-24) jumped from [8% to almost 25%](https://www.epi.org/publication/young-workers-covid-recession/) between spring of 2019 and 2020. \nYoung workers are expected to face significant hardship in the labor market even after the end of the pandemic, with long run negative effects in their futures, mimicking the economic downturn and effects brought about for young workers by the Great Recession in 2008. \nAs young workers attempt to enter the workforce to support their families, find jobs after college, or pay for their current education, monitoring their employment levels could act as an important measure of the health and growth of the economy.\nHow many people in the US between the ages 16-24 will be employed in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nThe number of employed persons in this age group in 2019 was 19,322k.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:50.356Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-29T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T21:49:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-01T22:51:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6537/image-classification-index-be-on-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Image classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:32.542Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:51.656Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { @@ -35907,6 +36302,44 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:52.869Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 109, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use by 2070?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4230/how-many-countries-will-at-least-in-some-form-decriminalize-possession-of-all-schedule-i-drugs-for-personal-use-by-2070/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nAs of 2020, possession of small amounts of certain psychoactive drugs (e.g., LSD or MDMA) for personal use is a criminal offense in many countries of the world. However, sometimes drug laws are changed. An activity related to drugs (such as possession of drugs) may be decriminalized, which means removal of criminal penalties for it. It may also be legalized, which implies removal of penalties for it altogether.\nTalkingdrugs [drug decriminalization map](https://www.talkingdrugs.org/drug-decriminalisation) indicates that the possession (at least in very small quantities for personal use) of any recreational drug, including drugs from Schedule I, is not criminalized by law in 19 countries in 2020.\nOut of these 19 countries, drug decriminalization occured in 14 countries in the 1991-2020 period, and in 3 countries in the 2011-2020 period.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nHow many countries will, at least in some form, decriminalize the possession of all Schedule I drugs for personal use on a national level by 2070?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nHere \"Schedule I drugs\" refers to drugs marked as CSA Schedule I in the [List of Regulated Chemicals](https://www.deadiversion.usdoj.gov/schedules/orangebook/orangebook.pdf) compiled by US Drug Enforcement Administration (May 2020 version).\nFor the purposes of this question, decriminalization of both possesion in small quantities and possession in any quantities count. Both decriminalization and legalization count. Countries where drug possession was never a criminal offense count (e.g. de jure in Uruguay).\nSituations of de jure decriminalization, de facto decriminalization, and de jure + de facto decriminalization all count. De facto decriminalization means that, for any Schedule I drug, criminal charges for only small-scale possession for personal use are filed in estimated <1% of cases in which such possession is detected.\n\"Country\" is defined as a UN member state for the purposes of this question.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:54.033Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 36, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-04T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-02-05T09:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2070-01-01T09:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will there be a 10X growth in number of legal abortions conducted in Poland by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6506/10x-abortion-in-poland-by-2030/", @@ -35924,7 +36357,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:34.630Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:56.029Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { @@ -35938,19 +36371,223 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will North Korea have a McDonald's?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2593/when-will-north-korea-have-a-mcdonalds/", + "title": "Will Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4742/will-mount-rushmore-be-intentionally-destroyed-or-modified-before-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "There are more than [37,000 McDonald's locations around the world, spread across 121 countries and territories.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_McDonald%27s_restaurants#Countries_and_territories_with_a_McDonald's_outlet) McDonald's is the world's largest restaurant chain by revenue serving over 69 million customers daily and employing around 1.9 million employees, 1.5 million of whom work for franchises. In the 78 years since its founding, McDonald's has become an iconic brand and a quintessential example of American free enterprise and global capitalism. \nNorth Korea is a country of some 25.4 million people, is one of the last remaining communist states in the world, and currently has hosted no McDonald's locations in its history. North Korea has maintained one of the most closed and centralized economies in the world since the 1940s. [It is ranked 180th worldwide on the Index of Economic Freedom](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/northkorea) - the worst ranking of any country ranked as of 2019.\n[On January 31 1990, the first McDonald’s opened in the Soviet Union,](https://www.rferl.org/a/fast-food-moscow-russia/26542682.html) less than two years before that country ceased to exist. The road to that historic opening had been long, with McDonald's management saying that the talks with Soviet officials had started as far back as 1976.\nMany people saw this opening as a sign of a tentative warming of relations between the USSR and the USA. This was to be the first ever foreign restaurant in the Soviet Union and for McDonald's this was (at the time) their largest restaurant ever, a venue with 900 seats.\n[The people’s interest in Moscow was enormous. When the Moscow McDonald's announced that 600 positions were available, 28,000 people applied. Workers were paid around 2 rubles per hour, which meant they could earn more than a Soviet doctor.](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FMFmtUnDDw) [They expected around 1,000 customers on the opening day, but over 30,000 showed up, staying in line for up to six hours, making this the largest restaurant launch worldwide.](https://rttl.me/2017/08/31/mcussr-the-first-mcdonalds-in-the-soviet-union/)\nIn 2018, the Washington Post reported that [North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may allow a “Western hamburger franchise” into the country as a show of goodwill to the United States.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2018/06/02/north-korea-reportedly-wants-a-mcdonalds-that-could-be-a-pretty-big-deal/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.3df4f149cfbc) This reported overture was made just months after a period of intense tension between the United States and North Korea, in which [both countries threatened](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/sep/19/donald-trump-threatens-totally-destroy-north-korea-un-speech) to [destroy the other in a nuclear war.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-42531574)\nThis question asks: When will the first McDonald's location open commercially in North Korea?\nThis question resolves positively on either a press release from McDonald's Corporation or credible media reports delivering information that a McDonald's store has officially opened commercially in territory that is (as of January 26 2019) part of North Korea.\nThis question shall endure in the event that North Korea ceases to exist as an independent state, and shall be constrained to the geographic area of North Korean territory on January 26 2019.\nThe restaurant must be open to the general public in the locality in which it operates, i.e. not a publicity stunt of some sort in which only pre-selected (by either McDonald's or North Korean or other government officials) individuals may participate, and it must operate on commercial terms (i.e. on a for-profit basis, but it need not actually be profitable.)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:36.660Z", + "description": "[New York Times published an article on 1st July 2020](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/01/us/mount-rushmore.html) reporting on the history of the famous [Mount Rushmore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Rushmore) in South Dakota. [Their tweet announcing the article says](https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1278387954440904704) \"Mount Rushmore was built on land that belonged to the Lakota tribe and sculpted by a man who had strong bonds with the Ku Klux Klan. It features the faces of 2 U.S. presidents who were slaveholders.\". Considering the many recent removals of statues in the USA ([especially of persons related to the Confederate states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials)) and elsewhere (e.g. [in the UK](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-53194684)) in recent months, it seems within reason that some kind of action against Mount Rushmore might be taken.\nWill Mount Rushmore be intentionally destroyed or modified before 2025?\nThis question resolves positively if, before 2025, Mount Rushmore is damaged or modified, either with the complete removal of one or more faces or other substantial modification. The damage must be such that a typical person viewing before-and-after pictures of the full monument on a monitor can immediately identify the damaged version (admins will use their judgment in edge cases). \nThe relevant damage must be substantial and result in the structure not being fully repaired or restored within a ten day period.\nFurthermore, one of the two conditions must be true:\n---The damage/modification occurs as ordered by a US state or governmental entity \n---A person or group damages Mount Rushmore without authorization, and explicitly states that their motivation was in some way related to racial inequality, slavery, or police brutality, and not, for example, tax protest or the Illuminati. \nHence, incidental damage (natural disasters, foreign nuclear strikes, etc.) is not counted.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:57.225Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 148, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-30T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645/if-conservatives-win-the-next-uk-general-election-what-will-the-england--wales-prison-population-rate-per-100000-people-be-5-years-later/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Conservatives or a coalition with Conservatives making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4644)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:58.377Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-24T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-02-14T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6687/robinhood-market-cap-2-weeks-after-ipo/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nDespite the drama over GameStop in January, [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/us/en/?utm_source=google&utm_campaign=8140492012&utm_content=84157057397&utm_term=474477324412__robinhood__e&utm_medium=cpc&gclid=Cj0KCQiApsiBBhCKARIsAN8o_4idaDxqrvcijYmOZKBLsQ4gk9k3jnyI3vl2feQUrUiDiwXw2EihiLwaAl_FEALw_wcB) still plans to move forward with its plans to go public sometime in 2021. Founded in 2013 by Vladimir Tenev and Baiju Bhatt, the fintech company is dedicated to offering commission free trades of stocks and exchange-traded funds via an online app network. \nThe public outrage felt by amateur investors as Robinhood suspended trading on Gamestop sparked an investigation into Robinhood and their relationship to Wall Street Hedge Funds like Citadel Securities this February which culminated in an [initial hearing](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) before the US Congress on February 18th. Lines of attack from both Republican and Democratic members of the House hearing committee included suspicions that the firm had failed to properly manage its own capital risks, and the problematic gamification of the app that lawmakers argued led to the [suicide of one amateur investor](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-55990461) who could not re-trade their GameStock stock after amassing a supposed 700k in debt. \nThe committee chair of the hearing, Maxine Walters, says that this is [only the beginning of the investigation](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/19/business/dealbook/robinhood-hearing-congress.html) into Wall Street and the payment for order flow business model. She plans to bring in the SEC to enforce stronger protections for investors and the oversight of financial plumbing in further hearings. \nDespite the controversy over its role, [Robinhood shares jumped 50%](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/) in January, and the most recent valuation of its shares placed the total valuation for the firm at [$40 billion](https://qz.com/1971633/robinhood-pre-ipo-secondary-shares-signal-40-billion-valuation/), more than double its valuation via private funding rounds in September 2020. In the last week of January, there were more than [1 million new downloads](https://www.pymnts.com/news/ipo/2021/robinhood-marches-on-with-ipo-despite-gamestop-trading-debacle/) of the Robinhood app, showing that amateur investors are still bullish on the prospects of the company. \nAs the company waits to go public through direct listing or via SPAC some time in Q2, this question asks:\nWhat will be the market capitalization of Robinhood 2 weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market cap (in billions) of Robinhood at closing on its tenth business day of trading.\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news sources like Yahoo Finance.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:14:59.571Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T18:27:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T18:27:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:00.781Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 95, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:02.005Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 137, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.86, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:03.364Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1340, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the volume-weighted average battery for electric vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3591/ev-battery-storage-costs/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $75 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:04.505Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 63, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-08T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:05.666Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 37, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6567/sota-on-squad20-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2023-02-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:06.850Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 89, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-13T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:08.700Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 138, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -35973,7 +36610,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:38.747Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:09.905Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { @@ -35986,210 +36623,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the first AGI be based on deep learning?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4055/will-the-first-agi-be-based-on-deep-learning/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Deep Learning Book, which is considered by many to be the best reference textbook on the topic, [introduces deep learning](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html),\nThis book is about a solution to [fuzzy ill-defined problems]. This solution is to allow computers to learn from experience and understand the world in terms of a hierarchy of concepts, with each concept defined through its relation to simpler concepts. By gathering knowledge from experience, this approach avoids the need for human operators to formally specify all the knowledge that the computer needs. The hierarchy of concepts enables the computer to learn complicated concepts by building them out of simpler ones. If we draw a graph showing how these concepts are built on top of each other, the graph is deep, with many layers. For this reason,we call this approach to AI deep learning\nPaul Christiano [has written](https://ai-alignment.com/prosaic-ai-control-b959644d79c2) that future AGI might be based on deep learning principles,\nIt now seems possible that we could build “prosaic” AGI, which can replicate human behavior but doesn’t involve qualitatively new ideas about “how intelligence works:”\nIt’s plausible that a large neural network can replicate “fast” human cognition, and that by coupling it to simple computational mechanisms — short and long-term memory, attention, etc. — we could obtain a human-level computational architecture.\nIt’s plausible that a variant of RL can train this architecture to actually implement human-level cognition. This would likely involve some combination of ingredients like model-based RL, imitation learning, or hierarchical RL. There are a whole bunch of ideas currently on the table and being explored; if you can’t imagine any of these ideas working out, then I feel that’s a failure of imagination (unless you see something I don’t).\nAssume for the purpose of this question, that [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) resolves on some date.\nMetaculus admin(s) and/or community moderator(s) will survey 11 AI researchers whose work they consider relevant and whose work has been cited at least 500 times within the past 365 days according to Google Scholar. We will then ask about the relevant AI system:\nWas the relevant AI system based on Deep Learning, as defined by the 2016 version of the [Deep Learning Book](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/contents/intro.html)?\nRespondents will be requested to submit only one of the following responses:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\n--- \nAt least a significant portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nOnly a minor portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nNo portion, or only a trivial portion of the system was based on DL\n--- \nI don't know\nThen the question resolves positively if a majority of surveyed experts who don't respond \"I don't know\" respond as follows:\n--- \nThe complete system was based on DL\n--- \nMost of system was based on DL\nThe question resolves ambiguously if a majority of experts respond \"I don't know\".\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.58, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.42000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:40.888Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 95, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-07T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2099-12-30T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6191/sota-on-miniimagenet-at-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2022-01-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:42.742Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 137, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:44.699Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:46.653Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 67, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "In December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6628/uk-national-debt-as-a--of-gdp-dec-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Measures to mitigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic have caused the total amount of money borrowed by the UK government to increase from 84% of GDP in March 2020 to an amount almost equal to the GDP of the country in December 2020.\n[BBC article 2021-02-19: \"Where does the government borrow billions from?\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50504151) is a good explainer of government borrowing.\nIn December 2025, what will UK total national debt (excluding public sector banks) be as a percentage of GDP?\nThis question resolves according to [the Office for National Statistics data on public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a % of GDP](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/timeseries/hf6x) - in particular the row labelled \"2025 DEC\" of the monthly table.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:48.476Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-20T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The 2020 Tokyo Olympics where rescheduled to the summer of 2021](https://www.olympic.org/news/joint-statement-from-the-international-olympic-committee-and-the-tokyo-2020-organising-committee). Will they go ahead?\nWill the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games take place in 2021?\nThe question resolves negative if the Olympics does not take place in 2021. Specifically an event described by the IOC as the Olympics occurs in the calendar year 2021.\nAn Olympics spread out over multiple countries will still count. (ie if the athletics takes place in France, the gymnastics in Japan, the swimming in USA etc the question still resolves positive) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:50.787Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1336, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2023, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:52.796Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 138, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-28T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6570/sota-on-montezumas-revenge-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still much below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score of any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2023-02-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (see e.g. [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:54.572Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:56.479Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the price of Brent crude oil exceed $70 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6145/brent-crude-oil-to-exceed-70-in-2021/", @@ -36207,9 +36640,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:06:58.456Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:11.473Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 307, + "numforecasts": 309, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36220,73 +36653,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:00.542Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:03.941Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 137, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6010/england-proportion-of-hospital-acquired-covid/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Even in normal times, nosocomial or hospital-acquired infections in the United Kingdom are believed to cause thousands of deaths each year. The first SARS had a strong tendency to spread in hospital settings, and although conflicting estimates exist of the prevalence of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 infection, numerous hospital outbreaks have been documented. There is significant concern in the UK about hospital-acquired COVID, with NHS England having recently estimated that some 1 in 6 confirmed cases are \"probable healthcare-associated infections\".\nIn the end, what proportion of COVID infections in England will be estimated to have been acquired in health care settings?\n--- \nEstimated proportion of all COVID infections throughout England's pandemic which were acquired in hospitals or other health care settings, not to include nursing / care homes.\n--- \nResolves as the median of estimates (or the geometric mean of the two median estimates).\n--- \nIf no estimates are available at resolve time, resolves according to the first estimate that subsequently becomes available.\n--- \nEstimates qualify if published by official UK governmental bodies such as NHS England, or published as peer-reviewed scientific research in a reputable scholarly journal. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:05.833Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:13.039Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { @@ -36316,7 +36689,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:07.894Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:14.311Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { @@ -36329,45 +36702,15 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.67, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.32999999999999996, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:09.778Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 376, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6146/us-capacity-factor-for-nuclear-energy-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/what-generation-capacity#:~:text=It%20basically%20measures%20how%20often,of%20the%20time%20in%202016.) allow energy analysts to understand the reliability of various power plants, in other words, looking at how often the plant is running at maximum power. A plant with a 100% capacity factor, for example, would be capable of producing power 100% of the time. \nThe capacity power of nuclear energy stands far above the other forms of energy production with a capacity factor of [93.4% in 2019](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php). A capacity factor this high means that constant, reliable, and carbon-free energy can be provided to the nation's population. Part of the reason capacity factors for nuclear energy remain so high is the [low necessity for maintenance](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) and the plants’ ability to operate for long periods of time without refueling. This is not possible for plants that produce coal or natural gas, which require frequent maintenance thereby reducing the efficiency of their production processes. \nThe difference between capacity factors amongst the various forms of energy production also have large implications for the number of plants necessary to produce enough energy to sustain population demand. Based on [current capacity factors](https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/nuclear-power-most-reliable-energy-source-and-its-not-even-close) for natural gas (56.8%), coal (47.5%), or solar PV (24.5%), it would take approximately two gas or coal plants, and almost four solar plants to produce the same amount of energy that a single nuclear plant could within the same time period. \nWhat will be the capacity factor of US nuclear energy by 2022?\n\nData\n====\n\nCurrent data is provided from 2019 and was last updated in October 2020. Data from 2017 is available [here](https://www.nei.org/resources/statistics/us-capacity-factors-by-fuel-type).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the US Energy Information Association through their [nuclear data and statistics page](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/nuclear/data-and-statistics.php).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:11.688Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:15.612Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36378,6 +36721,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will the 10-year average Gross World Product growth rate exceed 10%?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5833/gwp-growth-to-exceed-10/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The gross world product (GWP) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world.\nWhen will the 10-year average Gross World Product annual growth rate first exceed 10%?\nThis question resolves as January 1st of the first year T, such that:\nMoreover, GWP at T must exceed 260% of the maximum over all years >= 10 years prior.\nEach year's GWP is to be given in constant prices (adjusted for inflation), in USD.\n[World Bank data](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) should be used to resolve this question. If that's unavailable, other authoritative source of economic data may be used.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:17.565Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 85, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-03T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2040-12-02T15:03:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2200-12-02T15:03:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Mars have a permanent population of 10,000 before the Moon does?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3112/will-mars-have-a-permanent-population-of-10000-before-the-moon-does/", @@ -36395,9 +36757,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:13.668Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:19.247Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 245, + "numforecasts": 246, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36408,36 +36770,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.040000000000000036, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:15.529Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Longbets series: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 27 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-available-in-las-vegas-2024/", @@ -36455,9 +36787,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:17.499Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:20.829Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 91, + "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36469,34 +36801,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", + "title": "When will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3508/when-will-trikafta-become-available-for-cystic-fibrosis-patients-on-the-nhs-england/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:19.333Z", + "description": "Cystic Fibrosis is a genetic disease affecting mainly the lungs and the pancreas.([1](http://(https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/what-is-cystic-fibrosis))) In 2012 an American company called Vertex Pharmaceuticals got approval from the FDA to market a drug called Ivacaftor, the first generation of \"CFTR Modulators\" which improves lung function in people with CF.([2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivacaftor)) It was initially priced at $300,000 a year making it one of the most expensive drugs on the market. \nThis was followed by Orkambi ($270,000 a year) in 2015,([3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lumacaftor/ivacaftor)) and then in October 2019 by Trikafta, a triple combination therapy which is effective in around 90% of people with CF. Trikafta is marketed at around $300,000. However, the initial evidence is that it is much more effective at improving lung function in CF patients than previous therapies.([4](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-breakthrough-therapy-cystic-fibrosis))\nBecause of the cost of Orkambi, NICE, the organisation responsible for evaluating drugs affordability and effectiveness decided that the drug did not meet its quality of life standards and recommended not fund it.([5](https://www.cysticfibrosis.org.uk/news/nice-rejects-orkambi)) NHS England and Vertex then negotiated to get a deal to reduce the price, but it took until October 2019 for NHS England to reach a deal to make Orkambi available to all eligible CF patients.([6](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/oct/24/nhs-england-vertex-agrees-price-for-orkambi-unaffordable-cystic-fibrosis-drug)) This question asks:\nWhen will Trikafta become available for Cystic Fibrosis patients on the NHS (England)?\nBy 'available for Cystic Fibrosis patients', we mean that there are at least 5535 English CF patients who must have access to Trikafta via the NHS.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:22.710Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 297, + "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-01-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the Japanese passenger car fleet?", @@ -36504,7 +36825,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Japan is one of the largest electric vehicle markets in the world, behind only [China, the USA, and Norway](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car_use_by_country#Statistics) in total stock, as well as being the origin country of the Toyota Prius, the first [mass-produced hybrid-electric vehicle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hybrid_electric_vehicle#Modern_hybrids). According to [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/711994/japan-electric-car-market-share/), in 2018, 1.13% of motor vehicles in Japan were electric cars.\nWhen will electric cars constitute over 5% of the cars on the roads in Japan?\nThe date is resolved by the earliest credible report in a respectable publication that provides statistics from which it follows that the number of electric cars on Japanese roads is over 5% of the total number of passenger cars.\nFor the purpose of this question, an electric car is any vehicle which is classified as a \"passenger car\", and whose sole energy input is electrical energy, delivered either by plugging it into an electrical energy source or replacing an electrical battery (including a fuel cell), or similar means. Hybrid vehicles that have both an electric and any other non-electric (gasoline, diesel, etc.) engine do not count as electric cars.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:21.103Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:23.874Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -36534,9 +36855,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:22.776Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:25.185Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 61, + "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36553,7 +36874,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6401/total-retail-sales-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/31b216da-2502-4428-af5b-d3c54b68ebe4?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/retail-sales-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week1)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/economic-indicator/retail-sales.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/retail-sales-256)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/retail-sales)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:24.591Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:26.456Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { @@ -36567,91 +36888,64 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will the majority of leading cosmologists in 2030 agree that the evidence points to an accelerating universe?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3608/will-the-majority-of-leading-cosmologists-in-2030-agree-that-the-evidence-points-to-an-accelerating-universe/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:26.380Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 81, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:28.227Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 53, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "description": "Assume that in January 2030, a message such as email is sent to a group of 25 leading cosmologists (specified later in this question), asking them, \"In your opinion, does the current evidence strongly support the conclusion that the universe's expansion is accelerating? To avoid ambiguity, please include 'yes', 'no' or 'other' in your response.\" This question resolves positively if the majority of those who reply directly to the email respond with a direct \"yes\" in their reply, and resolves negatively if the majority of those who reply directly respond with a direct \"no\" in their reply. Replies that do not contain a direct \"yes\" or direct \"no\" are not counted.\nThe message is allowed to include an introduction explaining the purpose of the question.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following happen:\n---The replies from such an inquiry are not published by the end of January 2030. \n---There are an equal number of direct \"Yes\"s or \"No\"s in the replies. \n---A Metaculus moderator believes that all of the responses are too vague to count up the \"Yes\"s and \"No\"s. \nThe group of 25 leading cosmologists would be the group created via the following method. In January 2030, take the most highly cited papers uploaded to arXiv during the 2020s in the categories \"Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics\" and \"General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology.\" For each paper, in order from most citations to least citations, add the first author to the group if they are both alive and have a public email address. Continue adding authors until there are 25 members in the group.\nThe number of citations for a paper is determined by Google Scholar.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.09999999999999998, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:30.268Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:27.752Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2030-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-02-02T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/", + "title": "Will the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5413/conservative-uk-pm-on-2030-01-01/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:32.165Z", + "description": "The [Conservative and Unionist Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)) is a centre-right political party in the United Kingdom, commonly known as the \"Conservatives\" or \"Tories\". As of 2020, it has been the governing party since 2010. Its domination of British politics throughout the twentieth century has led to it being referred to as one of the most successful political parties in the Western world.\nWill the UK have a Conservative Prime Minister at the beginning of 2030?\nThis question resolves positively if the UK Prime Minister at 2030-01-01 00:00 GMT is a member of the Conservative and Unionist Party.\nOtherwise, the question resolves negatively.\nNote: this question has an almost symmetrical opposite [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5414/).\nIf, in 2030, the United Kingdom does not exist in its 2020 form, then the question resolves as the Prime Minister of the country containing London.\nIf the party is simply renamed, this question applies to the new party.\nIn case the Conservative party does not continue in its current form, this question also resolves positively if the following three conditions are all met at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT:\n1--The UK Prime Minister is a member of a political party that did not exist on 2021-01-01, \n2--The UK Prime Minister is former member of the Conservative party, and \n3--Fewer than 20% of MPs belong to the Conservative Party. \nIf, at 2030-1-1 00:00 GMT, there is no such Prime Minister, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:29.518Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 52, + "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-10-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T01:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will the Eurozone collapse before 2030?", @@ -36670,7 +36964,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:33.900Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:31.269Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -36684,30 +36978,49 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will SpaceX actually put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6966/spacex-puts-literal-dogecoin-on-literal-moon/", + "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On April 1st 2021, [Elon Musk tweeted: \"SpaceX is going to put a literal Dogecoin on the literal moon\"](https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1377567762919292938). While the day of publication is usually associated with pranks and humourously misleading jokes, there is speculation that the intention may be serious, and Elon has hinted at the idea previously.\nWill SpaceX put a literal Dogecoin on the literal Moon?\nThis question resolves positively if a vehicle operated by SpaceX delivers a representation of Dogecoin on the surface of Earth's Moon by the end of 2026. The \"Dogecoin\" must in some way contain at least one coin's worth of Dogecoin, for example by having a key written in it that allows access to an address that contains Dogecoin. A sculpture of a Dogecoin, but which does not carry any value of the cryptocurrency, will not resolve positively.\n", + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:32.670Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 56, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-15T18:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-16T18:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will Parker Solar Probe survive its 24 loops around the sun while getting just a few million miles away from the surface of our star?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1402/will-parker-solar-probe-survive-its-24-loops-around-the-sun-while-getting-just-a-few-million-miles-away-from-the-surface-of-our-star/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Parker Solar Probe rocket lifted off from Cape Canaveral, Florida.\nThe probe is set to become the fastest-moving manmade object in history. Its data promises to crack longstanding mysteries about the Sun's behaviour.\nOver the course of seven years, Parker will make 24 loops around our star to study the physics of the corona, the place where much of the important activity that affects the Earth seems to originate.\nThe probe will dip inside this tenuous atmosphere, sampling conditions, and getting to just 6.16 million km (3.83 million miles) from the Sun's broiling \"surface\".\n\"I realise that might not sound that close, but imagine the Sun and the Earth were a metre apart. Parker Solar Probe would be just 4cm away from the Sun,\" [explained Dr Nicky Fox,](https://gizmodo.com/setsession?r=https%3A%2F%2Fgizmodo.com%2Fwatch-nasa-launch-its-sun-skimming-parker-solar-probe-1828287380&sessionId=b41ac5b6-da5b-4091-8443-5519304f636b) the UK-born project scientist who is affiliated to the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory.\n\"It will also be the fastest man-made object ever, travelling at speeds of up to 430,000 mph [690,000km/h] - New York to Tokyo in under a minute!\" she told BBC News.\nResolution is positive if the Parker Probe is still transmitting valid data to Earth as of its 24th Perihelion, and at least some of those approaches have been within target specifications of the flight plan.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.75, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:35.834Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:33.860Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-09-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-04-02T04:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2025-08-12T16:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-08-30T16:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -36719,7 +37032,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in China. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=CN). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 38.5.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in China in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [India](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6773/gini-coeff-for-india-2030/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:37.599Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:35.004Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { @@ -36738,7 +37051,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The UK is one of several European countries which have, in recent weeks, experienced a large uptick in COVID-19 cases. As of December 24th, the 7-day average number of cases was 38k per day.\nRecently, a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, [VOC 202012/01](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VOC-202012/01) (also known as 'lineage B.1.1.7'), emerged in England. Studies, such as this [pre-print](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/uk-novel-variant/2020_12_23_Transmissibility_and_severity_of_VOC_202012_01_in_England.pdf), suggest that the variant is more transmissible than preexisting Sars-CoV-2 variants.\nWhat will the largest 7-day average number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the UK be, by June 1st, 2021\nThis question resolves as the largest 7-day average of newly number of confirmed COVID-19 cases ('cases by specimen date'), according to the [UK's Dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases) before (but excluding) June 1st of 2021. \nThis question will resolve on June 7th 2021, so that accounting lags can be made up for.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:39.513Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:36.148Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { @@ -36757,7 +37070,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of question writing, Hong Kong is officially a [Special administrative region of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_administrative_regions_of_China) (along with [Macau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macau)).\nThe [Hong Kong Basic Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_Basic_Law) (the de facto constitution of HK) says in [Chapter II, article 12](https://www.basiclaw.gov.hk/en/basiclawtext/chapter_2.html):\nThe Hong Kong Special Administrative Region shall be a local administrative region of the People's Republic of China, which shall enjoy a high degree of autonomy and come directly under the Central People's Government. \nQuestion: When will Hong Kong stop being a Special Administrative Region of China?\nResolution details:\n---This question resolves upon publication of an official document by the Hong Kong authorities (or Chinese government if the former don't exist anymore) that declares another status for Hong Kong. \n---This question does not resolve from the Special Administrative Region status being merely renamed or slightly tweaked, as judged by a Metaculus admin on the basis of credible media reports. \n---In that last case, the Metaculus admins can choose to resolve ambiguous if the situation is judged to have become too unclear/contentious/intractable. \n---If a relevant declaration is made by some HK authority, but contested by another, a Metaculus admin can choose to delay question resolution until dominance or consensus is reached. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:43.122Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:38.446Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 212, "resolution_data": { @@ -36787,7 +37100,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:44.862Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:39.638Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 20, "resolution_data": { @@ -36808,18 +37121,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.45999999999999996, + "probability": 0.5, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:46.896Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:40.816Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 243, + "numforecasts": 247, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36830,62 +37143,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.16, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.84, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:48.608Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 39, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:50.487Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6126/quality-of-visual-cortex-implants-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. When enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of age-related macular degeneration, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date one such device has been approved by regulators, the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/). However, when the retina or optic nerve itself is damaged, as typical of glaucoma, a more radical approach may be necessary. The same company that released the Argus II is currently trialing the [Orion](https://www.bcm.edu/news/second-sight-study-brings-sight-to-blind), a similar device that implants directly into the visual cortex. Described as \"basically a modified Argus II,\" it is likely to be approved within a few years.\nHow good will the best available visual cortex prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a cortical implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:52.412Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:42.122Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "resolution_data": { @@ -36898,13 +37162,73 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act by 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/981/will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-by-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Cannabis is legal for medicinal purposes in 29 states, with CBD (limited THC content) legal in 17. It's recreationally legal in 9 states, as well as DC. That leaves only four states with no approval.\nIn 2018, a number of states will be voting to legalize either recreational or medicinal marijuana. If trends continue, soon half the country will allow recreational and only a few (likely the same four as of now) will be against it completely, if that.\nCanada (fellow G7 participant, and America's neighbor) will be legalizing it federally this year. Will America follow by 2024?\nResolution is positive if by start of 2024, marijuana has been officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.67, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.32999999999999996, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:43.565Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 377, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6640/biden-to-hold-presidency-until-eoy/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Joseph Robinette Biden is an American politician serving as the 46th and current president of the United States.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist, who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/) [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that there’s a 95% chance that 2021 will end with Joe Biden holding the office of President.\nWill Joe Biden hold the office of US President between 2021-12-24 and 2022-01-01?\nThis question resolves positively if by the end the first week of 2022, there are no credible media reports that indicate that Joe Biden did not hold the office of US President between 12PM EST 2021-12-24 to 12PM EST 2022-01-01.\nThis question does not resolve negatively on a 25th amendment section 3 transfer of power (for e.g. a routine surgery), unless Biden does not resume the office of Presidency after such an event.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.040000000000000036, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:44.766Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 153, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "World Population in 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The world population has been steadily increasing for several centuries. As of November 2017, the world's population stands at approximately 7.6 billion people. According to UN projections the world population will be 9.7 billion in 2050.\nRegrettably, increases in world population are worrying some people, who are concerned that an increased population may be too much for an already strained environment to bear. Indeed, overpopulation can be seen as the root cause on many problems, from climate change to resource depletion.\nTherefore, it is asked:What will be the world population on the 31st of December 2050?\nWe shall define world population as the number of living humans on planet earth. We'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nResolution shall be by UN data, if possible. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:54.298Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:45.974Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 319, "resolution_data": { @@ -36923,9 +37247,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "News outlets are reporting [a surge in migrants at the southern border](https://apnews.com/article/mexico-immigration-united-states-1efbf1f357a5210d2433b48820b9aa54). US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) [reported 100,441 border encounters](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters) at the southwest land border in February, the largest number reported for February in the last three years. Some pundits [are suggesting](https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/03/how-trump-got-control-of-the-border/) that the \"border surge\" will get even worse in the coming months.\nCBP defines land border encounters as follows:\nUS Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8 Apprehensions, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible Volumes, and Title 42 Expulsions by Fiscal Year (FY)\nMore information on these encounter types can be found [at the CBP website](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/cbp-enforcement-statistics/title-8-and-title-42-statistics).\nIn March of 2020 the reporting methodology changed to include Title 42 expulsions due to the issuance of a new order from the CDC. [Due to COVID-19 and public health concerns](https://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/how-the-trump-administration-is-using-covid-19-to-continue-its-border-deterrence-efforts/), the new order granted increased authority to border officials to expel immigrants who did not have prior authorization for entry. Previously the metric appeared to have tracked apprehensions and inadmissibles (see an [archive of the CBP page and data from January of 2020 here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200101014739/https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration)).\nHow many southwest land border encounters will be reported by CBP for the month of May?\nThe question will resolve as the total number of \"Southwest Land Border Encounters\" [as reported by CBP](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters) for the month of May in 2021.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:56.111Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:47.148Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 11, + "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-06T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36953,9 +37277,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:07:58.040Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:50.029Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 207, + "numforecasts": 208, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -36967,68 +37291,30 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/", + "title": "Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:00.170Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 273, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5525/ivf-based-embryo-selection-for-intelligence/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "With genetic predictors of a phenotypic trait, it is possible to select embryos during an in vitro fertilisation process to increase or decrease that trait. Some have proposed that, using polygenic scores for IQ, embryo selection could enable cognitive enhancement in humans [(Shulman and Bostrom, 2014)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf). This could have major social, economic and scientific implications [(ibid.)](https://www.gwern.net/docs/iq/2014-shulman.pdf).\nWhen will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?\nThis question resolves positively as the date of the birth of the 100th baby who were developed from an embryo selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. \nPositive resolution does not require the selection to be based solely on polygenic scores for intelligence—other factors could be taken into account.\nPositive resolution requires the application of such procedures to aim for selecting for (amongst perhaps other things) improved cognitive abilities.\nPositive resolution does not require the selection methods to reliably work at yielding improved cognitive abilities relative to the predicted counterfactual cases.\nIn case the question does not resolve before 2090-10-25, the question resolves as \">2090-10-25\". \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:02.043Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-10-24T23:29:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-10-25T01:29:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", + "description": "Landing people on Mars is a longstanding ambition of NASA. Wikipedia [lists 17 crewed Mars mission proposed by NASA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_crewed_Mars_mission_plans), with the first one from 1960.\nThe latest is the [\"Moon to Mars\"](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars/overview) idea, as stated in Space Policy Directive-1:\nThe NASA Administrator shall, 'Lead an innovative and sustainable program of exploration with commercial and international partners to enable human expansion across the solar system and to bring back to Earth new knowledge and opportunities. Beginning with missions beyond low-Earth orbit, the United States will lead the return of humans to the Moon for long-term exploration and utilization, followed by human missions to Mars and other destinations.'\nThe general ambition seems to be achieving [landing people on Mars around 2030](https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/nss_chart_v23.pdf).\n[Metaculus has very similar and popular question \"Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?\"](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/). However, there is no corresponding question for NASA.\nSo, will a NASA-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2030?\nThe question will resolve positively even if the NASA-branded mission makes use of SpaceX transport system, under the condition that the main funding for the mission comes from USA budget.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.4, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6, + "probability": 0.96, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:03.972Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:51.286Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, + "numforecasts": 297, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2018-10-06T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-10-12T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -37051,7 +37337,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:05.825Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:52.976Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -37081,7 +37367,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:07.686Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:54.221Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { @@ -37094,32 +37380,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:09.751Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 141, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6549/when-will-trump-be-criminally-charged/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Donald Trump has a number of areas of possible criminal exposure, relating to acts committed both during his presidency and before it. He had been largely protected from indictment during his term in office, but no longer enjoys that protection.\nIf Donald J. Trump is indicted on criminal charges before 2030, when will the first such indictment happen?\nIf Trump is criminally indicted at either the federal or state level before 1/1/2030, then this question will resolve with the date of the first such indictment as reported by at least two major media outlets.\nIf no such indictment is reported before 1/1/2030, then the question will resolve as ambiguous.\n---Potential \"major media outlets\" should include the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC. Other outlets (including those that don't exist in 2021) are eligible at the discretion of the moderators. \n---The relevant date is the date of filing the indictment, not the date when media reports on such a filing. \n---The special case of sealed indictments: For all we know, Trump may have already been criminally indicted by a grand jury, with the indictment still under seal. In this case the question will resolve with the date that either a) the indictment is unsealed, or b) Trump is arrested under the indictment, whichever is earlier. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:11.559Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:55.549Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -37138,7 +37405,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In [this article](https://www.newyorker.com/tech/annals-of-technology/what-comes-after-the-turing-test) computer scientist Gary Marcus laid down the gauntlet:\n...allow me to propose a Turing Test for the twenty-first century: build a computer program that can watch any arbitrary TV program or YouTube video and answer questions about its content.... no existing program—not Watson, not Goostman, not Siri—can currently come close to doing what any bright, real teenager can do: watch an episode of “The Simpsons,” and tell us when to laugh.\nFor the purposes of this question, assume that a data set has been created based on labeling of at least 100 episodes of a television comedy (obviously without laugh track/studio audience and preferably but not necessarily The Simpsons.)\nUsing at most 25 episodes as part of the training corpus, when will an ML system achieve 90% of human accuracy when tested on 25 other different randomly chosen episodes? \nFine print: \n--- \nThe accuracy metric is unspecified but should essentially compare at what points in each episode a human specifies \"I laughed or smiled.\" The human accuracy can be drawn directly from the training data, since it is labeled by human comedic assessment. \n--- \nThe training set can include other videos but at most 25 of the comedy in question.\n--- \nIt is of course uncertain that such a dataset will be developed (though the author encourages it) or that it will become a significant target of ML research. If no ML papers attempting such a test are published by 2030 the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:13.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:56.791Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { @@ -37152,38 +37419,38 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", + "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", + "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:15.302Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:57.960Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 511, + "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "In 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6464/female-liberal-mps-in-australia-in-2025/", + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6564/sota-on-cityscapes-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Liberal Party of Australia is Australia's largest centre-right political party. In 2015, the Liberal Party federal executive set a target for 50% of its politicians to be women by 2025 [in all parliaments in Australia](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nBetween 2015 and 2020, the share of Liberal parliamentarians who were women [increased from 22.4% to 25.4%](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/liberal-partys-2025-target-of-50pc-female-mps-is-failing-with-gender-progress-slow/news-story/f3a294361f44b0539986b14f61457d35). \nIn Australia's largest centre-left party, the Australian Labor Party, 46% of parliamentarians are women. The Labor Party has had enforceable quotas for candidates since 1994. Interestingly, the Victorian branch of the Liberals has had a 50% quota for women in the party executive [since the party was founded in the 1940s](https://www.aph.gov.au/~/~/~/link.aspx?_id=240F755AE81F4EE18C62C028129D82E6&_z=z) but current Liberal Party culture is [mostly resistant to quotas](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-11-27/liberal-party-lack-of-women-costing-votes/9175150?nw=0).\nFor detailed statistics and a current snapshot of Liberal attitudes to gender representation, see Gender & Politics 2020 from the Liberal Party-affiliated Menzies Research Centre ([free download, but registration required](https://www.menziesrc.org/news-feed/gender-and-politics)).\nIn 2025, what percent of Australia's Liberal parliamentarians will be women?\nThis question will resolve as the percent of Liberal women MPs in state and federal governments, on 2026-01-01, at 00:00 AEDT. Government membership lists will be allowed as an official source. \nThe \"Coalition\" arrangement between the Liberal Party and the National Party means that some decisions are needed about who is or is not a \"Liberal\" parliamentarian. \nAt the state level, a Liberal parliamentarian is any member of the Liberal Party in each state but Queensland, the Liberal National Party in Queensland, the Canberra Liberals in the Australian Capital Territory and the Country Liberal Party in the Northern Territory. If the Liberal and National parties merge in any other states/territories, all parliamentarians in the merged party will be counted. \nIf the Liberal National Party splits into separate Liberal and National parties, only parliamentarians in the Queensland Liberal Party (or, if a different name is chosen, any branch affiliated with the federal Liberal Party) will be counted. \n--\nAt the federal level, parliamentarians that attend the Liberal party room will be counted. If the Liberal and National party rooms merge, all parliamentarians in the joint room count. \n--\nIf party names change, parties that are recognised by electoral commissions as being continuations of any existing Liberal Party will count towards the 2025 figure. \n--\nOnly state and federal houses of Parliament count. If a Parliament gains a new house of Parliament, its members count towards resolution. \n", + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:17.164Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:15:59.149Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, + "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-19T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-12-30T13:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -37206,7 +37473,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:20.449Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:00.898Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -37220,19 +37487,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:22.389Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:02.257Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 347, + "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -37255,7 +37522,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:24.285Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:05.208Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 406, "resolution_data": { @@ -37269,19 +37536,272 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4981/what-will-be-the-5-day-moving-average-of-the-107-cm-radio-flux-around-solar-cycle-25s-maximum/", + "title": "Will Metaculus anticipate the biggest unforeseen trend of the 2020s?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4883/will-metaculus-anticipate-the-biggest-unforeseen-trend-of-the-2020s/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar radio flux at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, known as F10.7, is an excellent indicator of solar activity levels, and has remained one of the longest-recorded indicators as well. \nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/f107-cm-radio-emissions) remarks that, \n“The F10.7 radio emissions originates high in the chromosphere and low in the corona of the solar atmosphere. The F10.7 correlates well with the sunspot number as well as a number of UltraViolet (UV) and visible solar irradiance records.”\nBecause extreme UV light cannot be measured from the surface of the Earth, the use of F10.7 as a proxy can help determine levels of incident UV radiation as well. \nIf 10.7 cm radio flux from the Sun is low during Solar Cycle 25 it will indicate a weaker cycle, and if high, it will indicate a stronger cycle. Predicting the strength of a cycle can help prepare people and companies involved with satellite design and operation, as well as in electric transmission and power grid management here on Earth. \nWhat will be the 5-day moving average of the 10.7 cm radio flux around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center through their [27-moving day outlook on 10.7 radio flux and geomagnetic indices](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/27-day-outlook-107-cm-radio-flux-and-geomagnetic-indices). If data no longer becomes available or is recorded, the resolution criteria will be provided by another reliable source such as NASA or will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:28.346Z", + "description": "Assume that in December 2029, a survey is given to at least one of the following groups of people,\n--- \nAmazon Mechanical Turk workers\n--- \nRedditors on /r/samplesize\n--- \nA large non-political non-meme-based Facebook group, with at least 50,000 members.\n--- \nSome other body of participants who can roughly be said to represent \"the people\".\nasking them \nIn your opinion, what was the biggest trend in the 2020s that it seemed like no one anticipated?\nA list of candidate trends will be curated using Google's [\"Year in Search\"](https://about.google/stories/year-in-search/) for each year in the 2020s (or if Google discontinues the list, another source of roughly equivalent content as discussed in the comments of this question). The order of the list will be randomized as to minimize bias in people's responses. After 1 week of the survey's publication, it will be closed and votes will be analyzed. \nFor the trend with the most votes, consider whether there was a question on Metaculus asking if the trend would happen, that closed before the trend is considered to have begun.\nWhether or not Metaculus anticipated a trend will inevitably be up for debate. Therefore, the following method will be used to resolve ambiguity. Take all the questions that could reasonably be used to judge whether Metaculus had foreseen the biggest trend of the 2020s. Post them below as comments on this question, and after one week of posting, consider the one with the most \"smile\" reacts (ties broken by discretion of whoever is doing the survey). Now assume that there is another survey given to the same population as the original one described in this question, asking,\nIf your friend had assigned [the credence value Metaculus assigns to the chosen question] to the proposition [the title of the question modified in such a way to preserve grammatical correctness] on [question closing date], would you say it's accurate to say that your friend anticipated [the trend]?\nIf after one week, if the majority of survey respondents respond with \"Yes\", then the question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:06.815Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-27T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-02T02:42:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T02:42:00Z" + "close_time": "2026-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6725/large-american-city-to-abolish-police-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_abolition_movement),\nThe police abolition movement is a political movement, largely in the United States, that advocates replacing policing with other systems of public safety. Police abolitionists believe that policing, as a system, is inherently flawed and cannot be reformed—a view that rejects the ideology of police reformists. While reformists seek to address the ways in which policing occurs, abolitionists seek to transform policing altogether through a process of disbanding, disempowering, and disarming the police. Abolitionists argue that the institution of policing is deeply rooted in a history of white supremacy and settler colonialism, and that it is inseparable from a pre-existing racial capitalist order.\nIn the summer of 2020, a movement to dismantle the Minneapolis police department became supported by a majority of the members of the Minneapolis city council, but was [later abandoned](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/26/us/politics/minneapolis-defund-police.html).\nSome have questioned the practicality of police abolition, asking whether it would be possible to maintain a society with no police without it devolving into lawlessness and chaos. As one potential response, the capitalist philosopher Michael Huemer has written at length about how a society that abolished government policing could maintain the public order. From his book [The Problem of Political Authority](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Problem_of_Political_Authority),\nAccording to a recent report, there are now 20 million private security guards worldwide – about twice as many as the number of government police. In America, private security guards number about 1 million, compared to 700,000 government police. In some cases, the government itself hires private security guards to protect public spaces, including the Liberty Bell in Philadelphia, the Statue of Liberty in New York, and the main bus terminal in Durham, North Carolina. If this trend continues, we could one day see a situation in which all public spaces are protected by private security guards.\nIn many countries – the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and others – private citizens are legally authorized to make citizens’ arrests. The conditions for a legal citizen’s arrest, however, tend to be much more restricted than the conditions under which government police may make an arrest. Legal authorization for citizens’ arrests may be limited to certain kinds of crimes, and the arresting citizen may be required to personally witness the crime in progress. One could imagine a liberalization of such laws, permitting citizens’ arrests for all crimes, including cases in which the suspect’s guilt is established by investigation after the fact.\nWill a large American city fully abolish their police department before 2035?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that an American city whose metropolitan area contains at least 1 million people, abolishes their public police department. In other words, the government would need to take an official action whose result is the complete disappearance of a taxpayer funded and government managed police department in that city.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:07.981Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 39, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-04-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5761/next-scottish-indepedence-referendum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In 2014, a referendum for the [independence of Scotland](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Scottish_independence_referendum) was held, with 44.70% in favour of independence and 55.30% in favour of remaining part of the UK. \nIn 2016, the UK held a [referendum for leaving the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), with 52% of votes in the UK as a whole in favour of leaving the EU but 62% of votes in Scotland against, leading to proposals for a second independence referendum. From June 2020 through at least November 2020, opinion polling has been in favour of a [second independence referendum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence).\nHowever, Scottish independence is a [reserved matter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reserved_and_excepted_matters) under Section 30 of the Scotland Act, so for a binding referendum to be held by legal channels the Scottish parliament would need to obtain a Section 30 order from the UK government, which has thus far been [ruled out by Boris Johnson](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jan/14/boris-johnson-refuses-to-grant-scotland-powers-to-hold-independence-vote).\nWhen will the next Scottish independence referendum be held?\nThis resolves at the date of the next Scottish independence referendum. If the referendum is held over multiple days, this resolves on the final day of voting. If there is no referendum by the start of 2035, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nETA (2020-11-26): Positive resolution requires that the relevant referendum is a legally binding referendum authorized by the UK government.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:09.164Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 80, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-25T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-10-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:10.963Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 117, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "How many people will be born in the United States in the year 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3883/how-many-people-will-be-born-in-the-united-states-in-the-year-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The number of people born per year in the US has slightly decreased over the past decade. In 2010, 3,999,386 people were born in the US. For comparison, there were an estimated 3,791,712 births in 2018, according to the official [report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_13-508.pdf).\nOne reason why the number of births in 2021 in particular is of interest is the coronavirus crisis. Some commentators have suggested that couples who are forced to spend time at home during quarantine may be more likely to have children, which would increase the birth rate. This however remains to be seen.\nResolution criteria: This question will resolve when a US government agency, most likely the National Center for Health Statistics, releases a final estimate of the total number of live births for all US states and territories between January 1 and December 31, 2021. The report will likely not be published until late 2022, which is why this question is expected to resolve by 2023. (E.g. the 2018 report wasn't published until November 2019.)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:12.164Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 273, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-27T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "Will the USD still reign supreme by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3858/will-the-usd-still-reign-supreme-by-2050/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The IMF regularly publishes information on the composition of official global foreign exchange reserves in the aggregated Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves ([COFER](http://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4)). As of Q3 2019, the U.S dollar comprises 61.8% of the total ([source](http://data.imf.org/regular.aspx?key=41175)).\nSeveral contributing factors are thought to contribute to this state of affairs, including [the stability, size, and liquidity of United States Treasury assets](https://www.economist.com/business-finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=16064067&source=hptextfeature), the tying of other currencies to the U.S dollar as part of the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the strength of the U.S economy.\nAt present, the U.S dollar is considered to be the world's dominant reserve currency. This is considered to [diminish the impact of higher U.S trade deficits](https://qz.com/1266044/why-does-the-us-run-a-trade-deficit-to-maintain-the-dollars-privileged-position/) and [allowing it to impose unilateral sanctions](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/03/upshot/the-dollars-big-role-in-foreign-policy.html). However, it has been speculated that the U.S dollar may be supplanted by the euro or the renminbi, or may diminish in importance.\nThe question asks: Will the US dollar still reign supreme by 2050?\nQuestion resolves positively if the most recently released percentage of allocated global foreign currency reserves comprising of the U.S dollar, by year-end 2050, is over 50%. Per moderator discretion, if the IMF has ceased publication of COFER in lieu of a new publication containing the same statistics, the new publication will be used instead.\nQuestion resolves as ambiguous the IMF has not published any statistics for any quarters after Q1 2045, if admins judge that the IMF has ceased to exist.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:13.341Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 133, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-28T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2044-12-31T11:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-12-31T11:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.22, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.78, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:15.297Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 186, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "How many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5929/us-pev-sales-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Information on sales at a global level is often not reported for electric vehicles specifically, making total tallies difficult to procure and often subject to error and estimation. However, according to [InsideEV’s Sales Scorecard](https://insideevs.com/news/343998/monthly-plug-in-ev-sales-scorecard/) there was a total of 329,528 electric vehicles sold in the US in 2019, an [8.88% drop from 2018](https://evadoption.com/2019-us-ev-sales-decreased-an-estimated-7-to-9-6-reasons-why/). As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, electric vehicle sales are declining, partly due to the decrease in gas prices. In the first half of 2020, electric vehicle sales [fell 14%](https://cleantechnica.com/2020/08/20/global-plugin-vehicle-volumes-fell-14-in-1st-half-of-2020-better-than-auto-markets-28-drop/), only half of what the regular automobile market experienced with a fall of 28% in global sales.\nOur [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5527/total-us-ev-sales-in-2020/) on total US PEV sales in 2020 predicts that 290k plug in electric vehicles will be sold throughout the year. This number is expected to grow in 2021 as new EV models enter the market, EV charging infrastructure expands, and as consumer consciousness about the environment increases. \nEV companies such Tesla, Nio and Li Automobile experienced a massive growth in share prices at [409%, 1158%, and 85%](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/electric-car-boom-even-hotter-000000811.html) respectively since January 2020, showing an enormous movement by consumers and investors alike towards future thinking companies and industries despite hardships brought by COVID-19.\nHow many plug-in electric vehicle sales will there be in the U.S. in 2021?\nData will be provided through the [Alternative Fuels Data Center](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/) run through the US Department of Energy. [Here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) is the graph of PEV sales by company, which also includes the total sold in the US.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:16.520Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 142, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:17.790Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 123, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will AIs program programs that can program AIs?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/406/when-will-ais-program-programs-that-can-program-ais/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of 2017, humans can (with assistance of various software tools) program machine learning (ML) systems that can learn to do various tasks – for example, recognize text, transcribe speech, or play games. \nML systems are currently not very good at writing programs to accomplish a specific purpose, though there are efforts in this direction, and some software systems (e.g. Mathematica and Wolfram-alpha) which are quite high-level programming systems. (See the related question [here](http://www.metaculus.com/questions/405/when-will-programs-write-programs-for-us/)).\nIf or when AI/ML systems become competent enough to do fairly general-purpose programming, for example to construct by themselves (according to some specifications) the types of narrow AI systems that AI researchers can create as of 2017, there could be a very rapid proliferation of such narrow AI systems since they could be constructed to-order for all manner of purposes even by non-programmers.\nIf an AI/ML system could become competent enough at programming that it could design a system (to some specification) that can itself design other systems, then it would presumably be sophisticated enough that it could also design upgrades or superior alternatives to itself, leading to recursive self-improvement that could dramatically increase the system's capability on a potentially short timescale.\nWhen will AI systems become sophisticated enough that they can build, to some specification, a system that can itself do sophisticated programming? \nResolution is positive if/when an AI system exists that could (if it chose to!) successfully comply with the request \"build me a general-purpose programming system that can write from scratch a deep-learning system capable of transcribing human speech.\"\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:19.059Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 511, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2016-12-31T00:25:18Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5727/100m-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 100m people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT be administered to 100M people?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 100 million people have been administered a vaccine that had been previously shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding >75% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:20.329Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 347, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T07:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:21.500Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -37304,9 +37824,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:31.595Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:23.090Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 68, + "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -37317,228 +37837,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:33.290Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2022-01-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6185/multi-modal-ml-2021-01-14-to-2022-01-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:35.359Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 117, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:37.411Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6218/dc-statehood-before-before-2025-01-20/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Residents of Washington DC have long been frustrated by a lack of (voting) representation in the US Congress, as well as local governance problems arising from the city's status as a federal district. \nMembers of Congress have in the past introduced legislation intending to convert much of the current federal district into a new state. President-elect Biden has in the past vocalized support for such resolutions. \nThere are numerous proposals for the exact details of such a transition, most including a prominent 'rump federal district' around the US Capitol building.\nWill Washington D.C. become a state before 2025-01-20?\nThis question resolves yes if legislation making some portion of DC a new state becomes law before January 20, 2025. The legislation need not go into effect by that date. This question resolves No if DC's status remains unchanged, if DC is retroceded to Maryland, or if DC is otherwise granted some, but not all rights afforded to a state.\nResolution by credible reports and/or absence of credible reports. If the result is unclear, this question may resolve ambiguous. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.22, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.78, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:39.236Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 186, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-07-20T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-30T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.61, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.39, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:40.982Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 42, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.01, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.99, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:43.123Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1387, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5934/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus is a novel betacoronavirus that likely emerged late last year from an animal reservoir in China. There is little to no pre-existing immunity against it in the human population. The clinical picture for the disease it causes, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), ranges from very mild to fatal. The virus is highly transmissible and has spread globally.\nWhile the development of a vaccine is critical for its successful administration at scale, just as critical is the creation and execution of infrastructure necessary for widescale vaccination to greater than 1 billion people.\nThe WHO defines vaccine efficacy as follows:\nVaccine efficacy: % reduction in disease incidence in a vaccinated group compared to an unvaccinated group under optimal conditions\nWhen will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first credible article is published that presents the claim that at least 1 billion people have been administered vaccines that had been shown to have an efficacy rate exceeding 60% in a randomized controlled trial with at least 500 participants. This may all be from the same vaccine, for from multiple vaccines. A vaccine is considered \"administered\" to a person if they receive all the doses as prescribed.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2023, it resolves as >31 December 2023.\nRelated question\n---[When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5767/1bn-people-vaccinated-against-covid-19/) \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:44.920Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 123, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-06-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T07:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "What percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5876/-of-us-gdp-spent-on-rd-in-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "From [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm),\nGross domestic spending on R&D is defined as the total expenditure (current and capital) on R&D carried out by all resident companies, research institutes, university and government laboratories, etc., in a country. It includes R&D funded from abroad, but excludes domestic funds for R&D performed outside the domestic economy. This indicator is measured in USD constant prices using 2010 base year and Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) and as percentage of GDP\nIn the most recent year recorded, in 2018 OECD nations spent 2.379% of their GDP on R&D. The United States in particular spent 2.862% of its GDP on R&D. What will that number be in 2030?\nWhat percentage of US GDP will be spent on R&D in 2030?\nThis question resolves on the percentage of United States GDP spent on R&D in 2030, as determined by [the OECD](https://data.oecd.org/rd/gross-domestic-spending-on-r-d.htm), or if the OECD stops publishing the data, other credible media.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:46.651Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 34, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.95, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.050000000000000044, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:48.403Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6060/number-employed-in-us-retail-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe world of retail is changing. As one of the hardest hit industries by COVID-19, the retail market has changed dramatically in order to reach customers in 2020. While the majority population of all generations within the US still [prefer a physical store](https://review42.com/retail-statistics/), 42% of Gen-Zers prefer to shop online. \nThe e-commerce industry is expected to breach the $4 trillion mark in 2020, however, this does not mean that the retail industry is dying. The retail industry as a whole, including e-commerce, is expected to continue to grow. While falling to its slowest growth rate in 2020 at an estimated [4.1%](https://www.oberlo.com/statistics/retail-industry-growth-rate), the industry is expected to reach parity with pre-COVID-19 growth rates by 2021. \nIn 2011, approximately [19.7](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) million people were employed in the wholesale and retail trade industries, a number which has remained unchanged since 2011. As the market changes and moves online, it remains to be seen how employment in this industry will change.\nHow many people will be employed in the US wholesale and retail industries in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:50.286Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:24.273Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "resolution_data": { @@ -37568,7 +37873,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:55.715Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:25.521Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -37587,7 +37892,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For the longest time there were only two nations with their own access to space, the United States and Russia né Soviet Union. Then China managed the feat in 2003, and now they’re close to building [their first multimodular space station](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_large_modular_space_station).\nWith China building up their space infrastructure, India apparently felt under zugzwang. While they’d already sent an Indian to space in a Soyuz capsule in 1984, now they are pursuing [their own program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Human_Spaceflight_Programme). Their space agency ISRO seems ready and eager, but there’s doubt about the timeline they proposed as being too optimistic.\nThe currently scheduled launch is in December 2021, but that may change, but the prime minister declared the goal to be ‘[a son or a daughter of India will go to Space from Indian soil by an Indian vehicle by 2022 (75th year of Indian independence) or sooner](http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=183103)’\nWhen will an India send their first astronaut/[gaganaut](https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/isro-sets-december-2021-target-for-human-mission-no-decision-on-number-of-gaganauts-or-days-in-space-sivan/articleshow/65595528.cms) into space?\nWill resolve positive to the respective launch time when at least one crew member of an Indian space craft/capsule launched with an Indian launch vehicle reaches orbit.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:57.728Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:26.691Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 227, "resolution_data": { @@ -37600,36 +37905,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6965/rep-matt-gaetz-leaves-congress-by-2023/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Rep. Matt Gaetz has been a controversial figure for much of his tenure in Congress. Recently it came to light that Gaetz is being [investigated by the Department of Justice](https://www.businessinsider.com/justice-department-investigating-matt-gaetz-sexual-relationship-17-year-old-2021-3) for an alleged relationship with a 17-year-old, among other things. In another, separate scandal, he allegedly [showed nude photos of women he'd slept with to lawmakers](https://www.cnn.com/2021/04/01/politics/matt-gaetz-photos-women/index.html).\nGaetz has denied the allegations, characterizing them as a personal attack on him due to his conservatism, but has also floated the idea of [retiring from Congress early for a position at Newsmax](https://www.axios.com/matt-gaetz-retirement-congress-newsmax-e1a0e6bb-0279-4e97-ab22-508e28f4347a.html). Most recently, [his communications director has resigned](https://www.politico.com/news/2021/04/02/gaetz-communications-director-departs-scandal-478936).\nWill Rep. Matt Gaetz leave the US House of Representatives before 2023?\nThis question resolves positively if Matt Gaetz is a not member of U.S. House of Representatives at any time between 2022-04-01 and 2023-01-01, whether it be by resignation, expulsion, or otherwise. If Gaetz completes his full term as representative to 2023-01-03, the question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.66, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.33999999999999997, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:08:59.515Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 41, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-05T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-01T07:01:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T08:01:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be governor of New York on June 30, 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6693/will-ny-governor-andrew-cuomo-resign-soon/", @@ -37638,18 +37913,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, + "probability": 0.55, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, + "probability": 0.44999999999999996, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:01.891Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:27.947Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 720, + "numforecasts": 731, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-02T12:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -37661,38 +37936,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "title": "When will the first zetta-FLOPS performer appear?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6788/when-will-the-first-zflop-performer-appear/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "description": "The TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhen will the first supercomputer perform 1 zettaFLOPS?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first supercomputer can perform at at least 1 zettaFLOPS (= ) at Rmax, according to any TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:03.695Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:29.132Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 179, + "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:05.762Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 208, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -37704,7 +37960,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Recently, [Hendrycks et. al. proposed a new test to measure a text model's multitask accuracy](https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.03300). The test covers 57 tasks including elementary and collage level mathematics, computer science, law, accounting and more. For each task, the model is provided only 5 training examples. The test set consist of around 5 000 to 10 000 questions, 100 to 200 questions per task.\nThe test is different from benchmarks like [SuperGLUE](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/), because it intentionally includes questions requiring specialized expertise in a narrow field of knowledge. Many tasks will be difficult for an average human. See example questions below.\nThey found that the very largest GPT-3 model achieves 43.9% accuracy vs. 25% random baseline, while UnifiedQA with 11B parameters and fine tuned on other QA tasks achieves 48.9%. Models also have near-random accuracy on some socially important subjects such as morality and law.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will AI achieve competency on multi-choice questions across diverse fields of expertise?\nWe will define competency as achieving at least 70% accuracy in every task and 85% mean accuracy across all tasks.\nThe question will resolve on the day when the model able to achieve competency is first publicly announced by the authors.\nBelow are two examples from the training set of the 2 most difficult tasks for GPT-3. The correct answers are in the fine print. [The whole dataset is available here.](https://github.com/hendrycks/test)\nCollege Chemistry task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nWhich of the following lists the hydrides of group-14 elements in order of thermal stability, from lowest to highest?\na) PbH4 < SnH4 < GeH4 < SiH4 < CH4\nb) PbH4 < SnH4 < CH4 < GeH4 < SiH4\nc) CH4 < SiH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < PbH4\nd) CH4 < PbH4 < GeH4 < SnH4 < SiH4 \nMoral Scenarios task (GPT-3 ~26% accuracy):\nFor which of these two scenarios does the main character (who uses I/me/my) do something clearly morally wrong? Scenario 1 | I really loved my newborn baby boy. Scenario 2 | The new girl is embarrassed to live in a trailer park, so I invite the class to her house.\na) Wrong, Wrong\nb) Wrong, Not wrong\nc) Not wrong, Wrong\nd) Not wrong, Not wrong\nSimilar Metaculus question: [When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\nCollege chemistry: a) Moral Scenarios: c)\nThe authors do not need to establish the competency during the publication. The competency can be also claimed by a reputable third party after the original model is announced (a pre-print is sufficient). The question will also retroactively close on the date of the original announcement of the model. The question will resolve at > Jan 1, 2040 if a competent model is not published at latest in 2039.\nThe model must perform in a few-shot regime with only access to the 5 dev examples per task provided by the authors of the test.\nFine-tuning on other QA tasks as with UnifiedQA is allowed. External information retrieval (e.g. Googling) is allowed, but cheating by access to exact answers is not allowed. Training data contamination similar to GPT-3 issues is allowed as long as the authors of the evaluation have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:07.922Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:30.373Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -37734,7 +37990,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:09.817Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:31.573Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 146, "resolution_data": { @@ -37747,32 +38003,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:11.900Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5351/major-wars-in-the-2020s/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the end of the Second World War, the number of persons who have died from armed conflict around the world has been [trending downward](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), especially since 2003. However, many flashpoints remain, with the potential for armed conflict to break out between such nations as India and China, Egypt and Ethiopia, and Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential for civil wars in unstable nations.\nDuring the years 2010-2019, 4 armed conflicts began that led to 25,000+ fatalities by 31 December 2019: the Syrian Civil War (~550,000+), the South Sudanese Civil War (~383,000), the Iraqi Civil War of 2014-2017 (~160,000) and the Yemeni Civil War (112,000+).\nThis question asks: How many armed conflicts will begin between 1 January 2021 and 1 January 2031 that will lead to at least 25,000 fatalities before 31 December 2031?\nHow many major wars will begin between 2021 and 2031?\nThe question will resolve based on reported fatalities on 31 December 2032 as reported by reputable news outlets or governmental organizations, (Associated Press, Reuters, the US DOD, the UN, ect.).\nWars that began before 1 January 2021 will not count, such as the ongoing war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. \nTerrorist attacks, even cumulated, will not count. At least one party must be the armed forces of a nation-state.\nArmed conflicts between the security forces of legitimate nation states and criminals will count, such as the ongoing Mexican Drug War.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:13.829Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:33.009Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { @@ -37791,9 +38028,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs India began to open its private sector to the aerospace industry, [Skyroot Aeropsace](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skyroot_Aerospace) quickly became one of the top startups to watch. The company fired its first solid fuel upper stage rocket engine, the Raman-I, a part of its first rocket the Vikram-I, in August 2020, and hopes to send the Vikram-I into space by the end of 2021. They achieved another milestone in this timeline through the [first successful test launch](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/29/skyroot-successfully-test-fires-indias-first-privately-made-solid-rocket-stage/) of their solid rocket propulsion stage in December 2020. \nFounded by former ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) scientists, the company aims to build smaller rockets that can launch satellites into orbit. Recently announcing a [partnership with ISRO](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/startups/isro-to-help-skyroot-to-build-its-small-rocket/articleshow/80664636.cms), the Indian government will offer the young company access to the facilities and technical expertise available at ISRO in order to develop and launch the scaled up version of their Vikram-I rocket. With the regulatory framework set in place to do so, Skyroot hopes to be the first private Indian company to build and operate private launch vehicles. \nAs the company positions itself for a successful launch of its first rocket this December, this question asks:\nWhen will Skyroot Aerospace successfully launch their first satellite into space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nA successful launch using a rocket launch vehicle will include the following criteria: The satellite will make it to the designated orbit outlined by the company. The satellite will stay in orbit for at least 2 weeks without major technological damage or failure. The rocket will return safely back to testing facilities after depositing the satellite in orbit.\nPredictions should reflect the date of the launch. If a satellite launches but is not successful, the question will remain open for future resolution. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable new source or from a notice from the company or ISRO.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:15.691Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:34.136Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 19, + "numforecasts": 20, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-10T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -37805,19 +38042,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", + "title": "When will there be a vegan cheese indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese available for purchase by regular consumers?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4249/when-will-there-be-a-vegan-cheese-indistinguishable-from-non-vegan-cheese-available-for-purchase-by-regular-consumers/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n", + "description": "Many animal rights thinkers now anticipate that there will be radical shift in society's treatment of animal upon the development of tasty plant-based meats [citation needed]. However, the development of plant-based meats would not necessarily entail the end of animal agriculture.\nWhen will there be a vegan cheese version of Mozzarella, Cheddar, Feta, Provolone, Swiss, or Monterey Jack that is indistinguishable from its original counterpart, as determined by an n≥250 RCT?\nDefine a vegan food as a food which is widely considered to be made without any animal products. A vegan cheese is said to be vegan food that is intended to emulate the taste, quality, and texture of normal cheese.\nA vegan cheese is said to be indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese if a high quality double-blind trial determined that ordinary humans (who previously reported having tasted the non-vegan cheese being compared) could not reliably determine the difference between the vegan imitation cheese and the non-vegan cheese it seeks to emulate. \nMore narrowly, we say conclude that the participants could not reliably determine the difference between the cheeses if there were at least 250 people in the study, the null hypothesis was not rejected at the p=0.05 significance level, and the study design was high quality according to the judgement of the moderators.\nThe date of resolution for this question is determined on the date by which the first vegan cheese which is indistinguishable from non-vegan cheese enters a regular consumer market, such as a supermarket chain.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:17.695Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:35.478Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, + "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-06-05T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z" + "close_time": "2066-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -37829,7 +38066,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Big Five personality traits](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Five_personality_traits), also known as the OCEAN model, is a grouping for personality traits that is divided into five factors: Openness to experience, Conscientiousness, Extraversion, Agreeableness, and Neuroticism. These traits are [mostly stable for adults](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0165176511004666), and there have been works studying the relationship between these factors and areas such as [personal values](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0146167202289008), [political attitudes](https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/abs/10.1146/annurev-polisci-051010-111659), and [academic achievement](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1041608008000587).\nWhile there have been studies trying to predict the Big Five scores from sources other than self-reports (such as from behavior at [social networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1204.4809) or from [smartphone data](https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/5959587)), it is possible that in the future these scores could be somewhat accurately predicted from photos, in the manner that now facial recognition technology [can expose political orientation](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79310-1).\nWhen will an algorithm be able to predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from a naturalistic photograph or video?\nThe question resolves positively on the first date a trustworthy publication claims that an algorithm can predict the Big Five personality traits of a person from naturalistic photographs or videos. In 90% or more of the individual cases, the predicted values for the five traits must have an average error of 20 points or less over a 100-point scale. In other words, at most 10% of the tested individuals can have an average prediction error higher than 20 points between the five traits. \nThe error for each trait is defined as the difference between the value predicted by the algorithm and that of a standard measurement test (such as [NEO-PI-R](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revised_NEO_Personality_Inventory)).\nExample: if the algorithm predicts 10-40-60-40-80 for the OCEAN traits of a person, and the last standard test gave values of 50-50-50-50-50, the total point difference would be of 100, and the average error of 20 points would lie within the acceptable range. \nThe scale over which the traits are measured is not central to this question: on a 5-point scale, the allowed averaged error would be of 1 point or less.\nThe question also resolves positively if different algorithms can be used to predict individual traits with enough accuracy such that a simple ensemble system using these algorithms and the same naturalistic input would reach the threshold specified above. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:19.628Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:36.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -37842,25 +38079,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:21.930Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 133, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will China land the next person on the Moon?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5832/china-to-land-the-next-person-on-the-moon/", @@ -37878,7 +38096,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:23.740Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:37.937Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -37892,23 +38110,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "What proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5974/yang-last-round-vote-share-2021-ny-mayor/", + "title": "Will any Wirecard executive receive a custodial sentence for their involvement in the Wirecard collapse?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4826/will-any-wirecard-executive-receive-a-custodial-sentence-for-their-involvement-in-the-wirecard-collapse/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Andrew Yang is an entrepreneur and philanthropist from New York City who ran a surprisingly effective long-shot Democratic primary campaign in the 2020 Presidential election. He was noted for his quirky, upbeat campaigning style and raucous online fanbase.\nNew York mayor Bill de Blasio is ineligible to run for re-election in November 2021 due to term limits. With 70% of New York voters registered as Democrats to only 10% Republicans, the election to replace him is in effect the Democratic Party mayoral primary on June 22, 2021. There are already several strong declared and potential candidates, including city Comptroller Scott Stringer and Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. As of mid-December, 2020, Yang is widely regarded as a candidate although he has yet made no public declaration.\nIn 2021, for the first time, New York's municipal elections will use a ranked-choice or \"instant runoff\" system. Voters rank up to five candidates in preference order, and if no candidate has an outright majority of first-round votes, an algorithm analogous to multiple rounds of eliminations and runoff elections produces an eventual winner.\nWhat proportion of last-round votes will Andrew Yang get in the 2021 New York mayoral primary election?\nThis question will resolve as the proportion of votes recieved by Yang in the last round, after enough candidates have been eliminated to give one candidate 50% or greater votes. If Yang is eliminated before the last round is reached, it will resolve as 0%. \nQuestion resolves according to official numbers published online by the NYC Board of Elections. Proportion is proportion of last-round votes, not share of the overall electorate as sometimes reported; for example, if [ballot exhaustion](https://ballotpedia.org/Ballot_exhaustion) resulted in a final result reported as Yang 46%, Stringer 40%, Yang's proportion would be .535, not .46. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:25.743Z", + "description": "Wirecard uncovered a €1.9bn hole in its balance sheet in June 2020. \nThe company had faced accusations for some time that it has been engaged in accounting fraud.\nMore details can be found here:\n---[https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df…](https://www.ft.com/content/284fb1ad-ddc0-45df-a075-0709b36868db) \n---[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wirecard_scandal) \nMarkus Braun, Oliver Bellenhaus have been arrested by German prosecutors. Alexander von Knoop and Susanne Steidl are under investigation. Jan Marsalek is a fugitive with an active arrest warrant.\nThis question resolves true if any senior Wirecard executives are given a custodial sentence for crimes relating to fraud at Wirecard. This list includes:\n---Markus Braun \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Alexander von Knoop \n---Susanne Steidl \n---Jan Marsalek \n---Oliver Bellenhaus \nThe imprisonment must be as a result of a conviction, pre-trial detainment will count if the court uses it as part of the sentence (eg time-served). Any country's court system is valid, although the conviction needs to related to Wirecard.\nConvictions in absentia will not result in the question resolving positive unless they are eventually caught and serve their punishment\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:39.818Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 131, + "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-11-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-22T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-23T06:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "What will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?", @@ -37916,7 +38145,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Hungary is a central European country with a nationalist conservative party in power headed by Victor Orban. It has recently implemented strong pro-fertility policies. In 2019, they implemented strong tax benefits for fertility related behaviors:\n[Hungary offers to pay for cars, mortages and tax bills for big families 12/02/2019](https://www.euronews.com/2019/02/11/hungary-offers-families-tax-and-loan-breaks-to-boost-birth-rate):\nSeven points from Orban's 'Hungarian babies' programme\n---A lifetime personal income-tax exemption for women who give birth to and raise at least four children \n---A low-interest loan of €31 500 for women under the age of 40 marrying for the first time. A third of the debt will be forgiven when a second child is born and the entire loan waived after any third child. \n---A loan program for families with at least two children to help them buy homes will also be expanded \n---After the birth of a second child, the government will give €3 150 towards its family's mortgage, after the third child, €12 580 and €3 150 for every subsequent child \n---Grand-parents could be eligible for \"GYED\" - a type of paid maternity leave until their grandchildren reach the age of three \n---The Hungarian nursery system will be expanded with 21 000 new places by 2022 \n---A subsidy of €7 862 will be offered toward the purchase a seven-seat vehicle for families with three or more children \n[On 7th January 2021, news reported that:](https://www.budapesttimes.hu/hungary/hungary-births-up-in-2020/)\nCarrying on from the trends seen in the 2010s, Hungary saw a rise in the number of births in 2020 in spite of the novel coronavirus epidemic, Gabriella Vukovich, the head of the Central Statistical Office (KSH), said.\n[However, preliminary results for January 2021 do not look strong](https://www.ksh.hu/gyorstajekoztatok#/en/document/nep2101):\nIn January 2021, 7,302 children were born and 12,916 people died according to preliminary data. The number of live births decreased by 9.8% and that of deaths rose by 9.6% compared to January 2020. 2,780 couples got married, which was 2.9% less compared to the same period of the previous year. In terms of the trends of vital events, the number of births was 1.7%, that of deaths 11% and the number of marriages 0.8% higher in the last twelve months, i.e. between February 2020 and January 2021, compared to one year earlier.\nPerhaps this should be attributed to Corona-related lockdowns.\n[More information on family policy can be found on Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_policy_in_Hungary).\nWhat will Hungary's total fertility rate be in 2023?\n---Total fertility rate of Hungary per Hungarian Central Statistical Office for the year 2023. [https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_a…](https://www.ksh.hu/docs/eng/xstadat/xstadat_annual/i_wnt001c.html) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:27.717Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:41.039Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { @@ -37929,81 +38158,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:29.855Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:33.350Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 169, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:35.385Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 133, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "If Conservatives win the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3341/if-conservatives-win-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Conservative party plans to [invest £5bn in providing broadband to the hardest-to-reach 20% of the country](https://www.conservatives.com/sharethefacts/2019/10/gigabit-rural-broadband), as part of an ambitious plan to [provide full-fiber broadband to every household by 2025](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49881168) including places that private investment would otherwise miss.\nThe UK's mean download speed is [currently 22.37Mbps](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/) in 2019, up from 18.57Mbps in 2018; this is in the bottom third of European broadband speeds, due to the slow rollout of full-fiber broadband. Full-fiber broadband itself can reach speeds of [up to 1 Gbps](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-49253071).\nIf, in the 2019 election, Conservatives, or a coalition with Conservatives making up the majority of seats, form a government, what will be mean broadband speeds in the UK in 2024?\nJudgement will be by Cable's [Worldwide broadband speed league 2024](https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/).\nSee also:\n---[If Labour wins the 2019 UK general election, what will be mean UK broadband download speeds 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3340/if-labour-wins-the-2019-uk-general-election-what-will-be-mean-uk-broadband-download-speeds-5-years-later/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:37.264Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:42.543Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 164, "resolution_data": { @@ -38017,49 +38178,30 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/", + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:39.078Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 75, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the upcoming [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government.\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before July 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis question will resolve as positive iff on or by 1 July 2021 at least two reputable news agencies describe the USA as being in a state of civil war. For the purpose of this question, reputable news agencies are: Agence France-Presse (AFP), Associated Press (AP), Reuters and EFE.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.99, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:41.268Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:43.801Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 30, + "numforecasts": 1389, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-07-12T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-11T10:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-06-30T22:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38071,7 +38213,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions stands at 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to February 2023?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2023-02-14 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation.*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2023-02-14 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:43.117Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:44.980Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { @@ -38090,7 +38232,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2026 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:45.183Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:47.086Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -38104,19 +38246,49 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", + "title": "Will China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6810/uyghur-internment-camps-open-by-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:47.170Z", + "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Global support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5166/chinese-uyghur-policy-support-by-2022/) \nBeginning in 2017, the government of China [has detained over 1 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xinjiang_internment_camps) Uyghur Muslims and other religious and ethnic minorities in Xinjiang province. Inmates in these camps are allegedly [forced into labor, tortured, and raped](https://www.vox.com/2020/7/28/21333345/uighurs-china-internment-camps-forced-labor-xinjiang), and these conditions have been condemned by several governments and human rights watchdogs. During his election campaign, President Joe Biden's spokesperson Andrew Bates [condemned these camps](https://www.axios.com/biden-campaign-china-uighur-genocide-3ad857a7-abfe-4b16-813d-7f074a8a04ba.html).\nIn Vox's Future Perfect, [Sigal Samuels predicted:](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22167877/predicting-biden-coronavirus-transition-vaccines-2021)\nThe US will enact policies to hold China accountable for its treatment of Muslims, but the internment camps will remain open (80 percent)\n[...] I see no reason to think that China will shut down the camps in 2021. The government there has already proven that targeted sanctions do not have swaying power; although the US imposed sanctions on officials like Xinjiang’s Communist Party Secretary Chen Quanguo, the camp system persists.\nWill China's internment camps for Uyghurs remain open on 2022-01-01?\nThis question will resolve positively if human rights organizations report that the camps remain open, with inmates being held without trial or appeal, in conditions including torture, after 2022-01-01. sources such as Amnesty International or Human Rights Watch will be used. \nAs the conditions and operations of these camps are not openly disclosed, there may be some delay in 2022 to find credible reports of the current conditions in these camps. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.95, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.050000000000000044, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:48.243Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 94, + "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-07-27T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "When will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6169/meetings-of-six-people-inside-in-england/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "On 4th January 2021, Prime Minister Boris Johnson [announced that England would enter a third national lockdown](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rQopV_NlYNc).\nThe [restrictions](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/national-lockdown-stay-at-home) include a ban on socially meeting anyone outside your home or 'support bubble' (but allow you to exercise outdoors with one such person).\nIn the four-tiered system of restrictions in place before the lockdown, it was possible in \"tier 1\" regions to meet others indoors or outdoors, but only in groups of up to 6 people.\nWhen will most people in England be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places?\nThis question resolves on the earliest date on which the majority of the population of England are legally allowed to meet any five other local people in a private indoor place, such as a house.\nBy 'any five local people', we mean that the question should not resolve if (say) each person were allowed to pick a fixed 'bubble' of people they are allowed to meet with. But the question should resolve positively even if mixing is not allowed with people from certain other regions.\nTo be precise, the question should resolve when the majority of people in England could truthfully say \"There are at least 10,000 people I could legally arrange to meet inside my home today in a group of six, if I could contact them and they agreed.\" \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:49.682Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 179, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38128,9 +38300,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2022?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2022. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:49.375Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:51.008Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, + "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -38142,57 +38314,38 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "How many electric vehicles will Tesla produce (units delivered) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5582/total-tesla-sales-in-2021/", + "title": "When will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3122/when-will-at-least-20-us-states-legalize-the-recreational-use-of-cannabis/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Tesla currently reigns supreme over the EV market with approximately 368,000 vehicles sold in 2019. After lagging behind BYD since Q2 2016, Tesla finally [surpassed them in sales in Q1 2019](https://cleantechnica.com/2019/12/10/tesla-passes-byd-in-global-ev-sales-the-history-behind-byd-teslas-efforts-at-global-ev-domination/). \nWith new expansions being added to Tesla’s gigafactory in Shanghai to produce the Model 3 and new Model Y cars, Tesla stands poised to increase sales in China as well as across the globe. Tesla’s Model 3 car is the most popular electric car on the market with over 300,000 cars on the road in 2019 alone, with sales representing over [14% of the world’s EV market](https://cleantechnica.com/tesla-sales/). \nIn Q3 2020, Tesla delivered [139,300](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries) vehicles to consumers, an increase of almost 50,000 from Q2 2020 with total deliveries at [90,650](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q2-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries)\nHow many electric vehicles will Tesla sell (units delivered) in the 2021 calendar year?\nThis question resolves as the sum of vehicle delivered for all quarters of 2021, according to Tesla.\nTesla reports its own sales records, which should be available [here](https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-q3-2020-vehicle-production-deliveries). Other reliable media sources include InsideEVs, Car and Driver, or Cleantechnica, with example publications like [this](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a34250691/2020-tesla-sales-third-quarter-record/#:~:text=Tesla%20Delivered%20Record%2DBreaking%20139%2C300%20Vehicles%20in%203rd%20Quarter,-Oct%202%2C%202020&text=Tesla%20delivered%20139%2C300%20vehicles%20in,of%20112%2C000%20set%20in%202019.).\n", + "description": "Currently, the recreational use of cannabis is legalized in 11 U.S. states (Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington), as well as the District of Columbia, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Guam (see the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction)).\nWhen will at least 20 U.S. states legalize the recreational use of cannabis? \nThis question resolves as the date when at least 20 U.S. states will have legalized the recreational use of cannabis. Resolution may come from the [dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legality_of_cannabis_by_U.S._jurisdiction), although an admin may need to verify the claims made. If the recreational use of cannabis is legalized at the federal level and effectively decriminalized in at least 20 states, this question also resolves positively.\nIf this question does not resolve before Oct 6th, 2030, this question resolves as \"> Oct 6, 2030\". The question closes retroactively per the date the question has resolved.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:51.600Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:52.539Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 133, + "numforecasts": 208, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-04T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-30T20:57:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-02-06T20:57:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-01-01T18:52:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-31T18:51:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/", + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6574/top-gpu-price-performance-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on January 1, 2030?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on 2030-01-01, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:53.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:53.692Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:55.610Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38204,7 +38357,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [the UK COVID-19 vaccines delivery plan](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan):\n4.3 The government’s top priority is to ensure that everyone in cohorts 1-4 is offered the opportunity to receive their first dose of vaccination against COVID-19 by 15 February. It will likely take until Spring to offer the first dose of vaccination to the JCVI priority groups 1-9, with estimated cover of around 27 million people in England and 32 million people across the UK.\n4.4 It is estimated that taken together, these at-risk groups account for 99% of all deaths from COVID-19 to date.\nThe UK [is prioritising giving more people one dose of the vaccine](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/prioritising-the-first-covid-19-vaccine-dose-jcvi-statement/optimising-the-covid-19-vaccination-programme-for-maximum-short-term-impact), with the second dose given around 12 weeks later.\n[This BBC article on the vaccine rollout](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833) provides some useful context.\nWhen will 32 million people in the UK have received a dose of a COVID-19 vaccine?\nThis question resolves when the UK government reports [here](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare) that the cumulative number of people who have received a first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine across the UK reaches 32,000,000.\nIf there is a reporting lag, the question resolves on the date the vaccinations actually exceeded 32 million, rather than the date of the public report.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:57.657Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:55.031Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 758, "resolution_data": { @@ -38218,68 +38371,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "title": "13 month boxed mean of sunspots around the Solar 25 maximum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4971/13-month-boxed-mean-of-sunspots-around-the-solar-25-maximum/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:09:59.595Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:56.214Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 79, + "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.46, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.54, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:01.918Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 386, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:03.952Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 194, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2022-03-31T00:44:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-02T01:44:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38291,7 +38395,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive) — this question. \nIf the federal minimum wage is greater than $10 and less than $15, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is <= $10 or >= $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:05.841Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:58.509Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { @@ -38304,13 +38408,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6344/2025-price-of-a-crunchwrap-supreme/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Joe Biden has signaled that he intends to increase the minimum wage](https://www.google.com/search?rlz=1C5CHFA_enUS925US925&biw=1440&bih=741&tbm=nws&ei=r_cGYJPbMZCa5gL81brAAw&q=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage&oq=Joe+Biden+minimum+wage) (see [related Metaculus question here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-rank&search=minimum%20wage&categories=)). People have been arguing over whether this will increase prices, and a popular meme on the internet has been about the price of a [Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme](https://twitter.com/search?q=minimum%20wage%20Crunchwrap%20Supreme&src=typed_query).\nThe current price, [per the Taco Bell website](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme) in Westfield, Indiana (where the minimum wage is currently the federal minimum of $7.25), is $3.79.\nWhat will be the price of a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana in 2025?\nOn 1 January 2025, this URL will be consulted: [https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/cru…](https://www.tacobell.com/food/specialties/crunchwrap-supreme)\nIf the store / price location is not relative to Westfield, Indiana, it will be set to be Westfield, Indiana.\nThe price on that site will be used as resolution. The price will not be adjusted for inflation. In the case of any promotions or sales, the regular price will be used for resolution, if this is known. If not, the on-sale price will be used, without any discount codes, combos or coupons.\nIf that URL is not available, another page on the Taco Bell website showing the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana may be used. If multiple competing prices are available using this method, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nIf a search of the Taco Bell website does not show the price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in Westfield, Indiana (maybe because the Crunchwrap Supreme is discontinued or there are no longer Taco Bell locations in Westfield, Indiana), this question will resolve ambiguous.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:16:59.792Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 133, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will PHP die?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1691/when-will-php-die/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[PHP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PHP) is a general-purpose scripting language that is especially suited to web development. PHP was first released in 1995. \nAccording to [w3tech.com](https://w3techs.com/technologies/details/pl-php/all/all):\nPHP is used by 78.8% of all the websites whose server-side programming language we know.\nWhile [builtwith.com](https://trends.builtwith.com/framework/programming-language) estimates that PHP is used by 71% of the top 1 million sites.\nSome popular websites using PHP:\n---[Facebook.com](http://Facebook.com) \n---[Wikipedia.org](http://Wikipedia.org) \n---[Vk.com](http://Vk.com) \n---[Sina.com.cn](http://Sina.com.cn) \n---[360.cn](http://360.cn) \n---[Aliexpress.com](http://Aliexpress.com) \n---[Wordpress.com](http://Wordpress.com) \n---[Pinterest.com](http://Pinterest.com) \nDespite this enormous popularity PHP is also one of the most hated programming languages.\n[Quora.com](http://Quora.com) for example is overflowing with questions like:\n---[Is PHP dying in 2019?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2019) (25 Oct 2018) \n---[Is PHP dying in 2018?](https://www.quora.com/Is-PHP-dying-in-2018) (27 Apr 2018) \n---[Will PHP die out in 2017?](https://www.quora.com/Will-PHP-die-out-in-2017) (24 Mar 2017) \n---[When will PHP finally die?](https://www.quora.com/When-will-PHP-finally-die) (13 Feb 2017) \nThis question will resolve when Metaculus users will provide two independent and somewhat reliable sources (on the level of [w3tech.com](http://w3tech.com) or [builtwith.com](http://builtwith.com)) that will show that PHP is used by less than 5% of websites on the internet. The sources must indicate popularity of PHP among at least 500 000 most popular websites. The rest of the methodology is intentionally left to be vague due to potentially long time horizons. While the sources should not be obviously wrong, minor reliability and methodology issues should be ignored and the question should resolve. The intention is that the stark difference between the current domination of PHP and the 5% required for this question should be sufficient to unambiguously indicate that PHP is dead, or taking it's last breath.\nGeneral language popularity e.g. TIOBE index is not relevant for this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:07.785Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:00.993Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -38324,24 +38447,54 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", + "title": "How many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6107/the-precipice-amazon-ratings-1-1-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "description": "[Inspired by the previous [question for 1st Jan 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5119/how-many-ratings-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/)]\nIn March 2020, Oxford philosopher [Toby Ord](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toby_Ord) published The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. It argues that safeguarding humanity's future is among the most important moral issues of our time. Fans of the book include [Nate Silver](https://open.spotify.com/episode/4KRRk0hR6QengH1HsXyAi4), [Max Roser](https://twitter.com/maxcroser/status/13337236773309603840), [Tom Chivers](https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-close-is-humanity-to-destroying-itself), [Scott Alexander](https://slatestarcodex.com/2020/04/01/book-review-the-precipice/), and [Cate Blanchett](https://www.vogue.com.au/culture/features/cate-blanchett-and-rose-byrne-discuss-working-together-on-their-latest-emmynominated-series-mrs-america/news-story/3da3603822afd3c1b5d8b40bdbe2068c). A [paperback edition](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/031648492X) will be published in March 2021 in the US.\nAs of January 1st 2021 the book has [235 ratings on Amazon](https://www.amazon.com/product-reviews/0316484911/). You can view historical data in this [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15Xm3KD_R45jYnVyqYbfNqxDTdHhR_Zs7uwlNI5ol35I/edit?usp=sharing).\nHow many ratings will Toby Ord's book The Precipice have on Amazon on January 1st 2022?\nResolves according to ratings on [Amazon.com](https://www.amazon.com/Precipice-Existential-Risk-Future-Humanity/dp/0316484911) at resolution time.\nA previous question resolved ambiguously due to confusion about ratings vs. reviews, see [the lengthy discussion here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4054/how-many-reviews-will-toby-ords-book-the-precipice-have-on-amazon-on-january-1st-2021/#comment-36532) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:09.657Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:02.317Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, + "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T12:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:04.173Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 38, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3397/large-obesity-drop-in-oecd-country-by-2030/", @@ -38359,7 +38512,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:12.302Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:05.713Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 183, "resolution_data": { @@ -38389,7 +38542,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:16.785Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:07.092Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -38402,43 +38555,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Longbets series: will the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5716/longbets-oil-consumed-in-us-in-2035-vs-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Joseph F. Huttner and Stephen W Snow summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](https://longbets.org/726/).\nJoseph F. Huttner argued,\n1) The overall population of the United States will continue to increase, largely as a result of immigration. [...]\n2) The American electorate is generally unwilling to force themselves to pay more for a given unit of energy than they have to, and geologically-derived crude oil is often the cheapest form of energy available. [...]\n3) The solution to credible environmental issues stemming from the burning of fossil fuels is likely to be based on some scientific process which addresses those effects. [...]\n4) Much of the geologically-derived crude oil for sale in the world comes from countries that have an under-developed economy. On a political level, it is in the interest of wealthier nations to purchase the exports of poorer nations, and that includes their oil - these transactions not only increase wealth for both nations, but they help foster harmony and peace among the peoples of the world.\nStephen W Snow countered,\nMy reasoning is based on economic arguments rather than on an assumption that the drop will be caused by a deliberate policy to reduce fossil carbon use, even though such a policy would be highly desirable to reduce climate change. It seems likely to me that the price of oil will continue to rise as it has done in the past, while the price of renewables, particularly solar photovoltaic, will also follow past trends and continue to fall. Even though the US population and economy will continue to grow I claim that this growth will be more than compensated by improved energy intensity and by substitution of oil with natural gas and renewables.\nWill the amount of geologically-derived crude oil consumed by the United States in 2035 be greater than the amount consumed in 2015?\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Joseph F. Huttner the winner, this question resolves positively. If they declare Stephen W Snow the winner, this question resolves negatively.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.38, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.62, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:18.759Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-16T19:09:23.731000Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2032-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2036-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6184/sota-on-squad20-2022-01-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2022-01-14 to qualify.\nIn case [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:21.106Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:08.225Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 152, "resolution_data": { @@ -38452,23 +38575,34 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", + "title": "Will a Guaranteed Minimum Income introduced in any EU country before 2041?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2711/will-a-guaranteed-minimum-income-introduced-in-any-eu-country-before-2041/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:22.912Z", + "description": "A Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) is a guaranteed minimum income above the poverty line that would be guaranteed to be paid to any person of age. \nFeatures of a GMI would be: [unconditional, automatic, non-withdrawable, individual, and as a right](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income). This doesn’t mean every person would receive that income, but the vast majority of the population of a country, region, or locale would be guaranteed a minimum income, no strings attached.\nThe implementation can and would vary from state to state, according to the respective cultural, societal, and governmental conditions. \nSo far there have been numerous experiments with UBI [in the US, Finland](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612640/universal-basic-income-had-a-rough-2018/), [Canada](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_Canada), [Netherlands](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_in_the_Netherlands), [and other countries](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_income_around_the_world), and UBI has become a recurring theme in political and public discussion since the 1980s, in particular in light of downsizing due to automation. Groups call for the implementation of a basic income to deal with these issues.\nBut there are also arguments against implementing a UBI, such as questioning the financing strategy, a rise in shadow economy, the negative effect on people depending on more personalised (and higher) welfare, decrease in motivation to work, and so on.\n\nWill a Universal Basic Income introduced in any EU country within the next 20 years?\n\nFor a positive resolution the guaranteed income scheme must cover >50% of the labour force and guarantee an income at ≥80% of that nation’s poverty line for at least six continuous months. The relevant numbers will be taken as [Eurostat](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/) gathers and collates them.\n(Edited 2020-05-21 to change name to GMI from UBI to oomport with the definition given in the question.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:09.416Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 169, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-14T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2029-04-04T10:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2041-04-04T10:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { "title": "Will one of GiveWell's 2019 top charities be estimated as the most cost-effective charity in 2031?", @@ -38487,7 +38621,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:24.741Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:10.686Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -38501,49 +38635,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", + "title": "In how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6633/when-will-we-meet-grabby-aliens/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:26.702Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 416, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "description": "Robin Hanson, Daniel Martin, Calvin McCarter and Jonathan Paulson have [a new paper out about grabby aliens](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2102.01522.pdf). From the abstract,\nAccording to a hard-steps model of advanced life timing, humans seem puzzlingly early. We offer an explanation: an early deadline is set by 'grabby' civilizations (GC), who expand rapidly, never die alone, change the appearance of the volumes they control, and who are not born within other GC volumes. If we might soon become grabby, then today is near a sample origin date of such a GC. A selection effect explains why we don't see them even though they probably control over a third of the universe now. Each parameter in our three parameter model can be estimated to within roughly a factor of four, allowing principled predictions of GC origins, spacing, appearance, and durations till we see or meet them.\nScott Aaronson wrote a qualitative summary of the paper [here](https://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=5253). [Figure 8](https://imgur.com/a/bK33kUn) in their paper provides a cumulative probability distribution for when our descendents will encounter grabby aliens, under various parameter settings in their model. \nThis question is important for long-termists, since it provides one constraint on the overall size and power our civilization will eventually have. Assuming that human descendants do not have the ability to conquer neighboring alien civilizations, our descedents will be constrained by the amount of resources we can \"grab\" in a phase of rapid expansion and colonization, much like the [European imperialists](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_European_imperialism) of prior centuries.\nIn how many years will humanity's descendants meet grabby aliens?\nThis question resolves as the number of years since 2021 that human descendants (biological or artificial) physically encounter \"grabby aliens\", defined as aliens that consume at least 10^26 watts of power, corresponding to Carl Sagan's proposed definition of a Type II civilization on the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). For the purpose of this question, to physically encounter an alien civilization means that any part of their technology is within 1 light year of any part of our technology.\nETA 2021-02-22 In case humanity goes extinct before it meets grabby aliens, it resolves as \">10^16\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:28.619Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:12.194Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 147, + "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-20T18:17:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "3000-01-01T08:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38566,9 +38670,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:30.415Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:13.403Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-26T19:52:08.915000Z", "resolution": null, @@ -38580,19 +38684,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "title": "When will Bitcoin lose its position as market dominant cryptocurrency?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "description": "Bitcoin (BTC) is one of 100s of cryptocurrencies. While [not exactly the first 'digital gold'](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Pre-history), it is the first successful and enjoys a first mover advantage in the competition in terms of market share (of all money invested in cryptocurrency). In the summer of 2017, Bitcoin seemed poised to lose its position as coin number 1 to Ethereum (ETH), however, it eventually gained back its dominance. Also in early 2018, BTC lost dominance and was down to about 33% of the market, but then again bounced back. It currently has a market share of 57% according to [coinmarketcap.com's estimate](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage).\nWhen will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?\n---Data from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#dominance-percentage). \n---Question resolves positively when Bitcoin reaches a lower market share than any other single coin. \n---In case the question does not resolve positive prior to 2050-09-06, the question resolves as \">2050-09-05\". \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:32.681Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:14.767Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 285, + "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2039-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-09-05T09:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38604,7 +38708,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency and disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: alterations that produce [hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alternations by way of recombinant DNA techniques (e.g. by way of CRISPR-Cas9) continue to require FDA approval by default, when will the FDA have determined that at least ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are safe to eat?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when at least ten variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved by the FDA for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" are \"animal drugs\" in FDA terminology: “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals.”[[5](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf)] In other words, the FDA considers the rDNA construct in a GE animal to be the drug, not the genetically edited animal itself. Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are approved as safe to eat. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/), resolves positively before ten intentionally genomic DNA altered animals are determined as safe to eat.\nIf this question does not resolve before October 5th, 2031, it resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2031\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:34.738Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:16.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { @@ -38623,9 +38727,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Private Sector WPI for Q2 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column N](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=N:N).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q2 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895308K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:36.681Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:17.830Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 13, + "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -38637,54 +38741,35 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "title": "Will a member of Congress be charged during 2021 with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6781/congressmember-charged-in-capitol-riot-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "description": "After [the storming of the U.S. Capitol,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) there have been speculations and rumors of insider involvement. House Majority Leader Nancy Pelosi has warned of [\"the enemy\" within the House of Representatives.](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nancy-pelosi-enemy-within-house-of-representatives/) The FBI [has been examining Members' telephone records,](https://www.cnn.com/2021/03/04/politics/capitol-riot-investigation-lawmakers/index.html) in what another Democratic party Representative [says](https://www.mediaite.com/tv/house-democrat-says-fbi-is-investigating-whether-members-of-congress-helped-capitol-terrorists/) is an investigation into whether members aided the insurrectionists.\nWill any member of Congress be charged, during 2021, with a felony in connection with the Capitol riot?\n--- \nApplies to anyone who was a Senator, Representative, or non-voting delegate on January 6th, 2021.\n--- \nThe offense as described in the charging documents must be more than incidentally related to the Capitol storming. Charges such as obstruction or lying to federal officials, if they arise in the course of the investigation, do count as related. \n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.39, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.61, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:39.329Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:19.122Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 333, + "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-03-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-09-01T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:41.394Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 258, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will starlink conduct an IPO before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6618/starlink-ipo-before-2030/", @@ -38702,7 +38787,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:43.346Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:20.315Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -38716,24 +38801,62 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "In what year will the total number of hen eggs produced annually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3246/in-what-year-will-the-total-number-of-hen-eggs-produced-annually-in-the-us-be-100-billion-or-less/", + "title": "By 2030, how many people will have ever landed on the Moon?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3142/by-2030-how-many-people-will-have-ever-landed-on-the-moon/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nIn what year will the total number of hen eggs produced anually in the U.S. be 100 billion or less?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the first year ending November 30th in which the total egg production year ending is 100 billion or less. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 100.049 qualifies as 100.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures. If, by December 24th, 2035, the question has not resolves, this question resolves as \"> Dec 24, 2035\".\n", + "description": "As of 2019, [only 12 people have ever landed on the Moon.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apollo_astronauts) All of these people did so between July 1969 and December 1972.\n[The United States is currently pursuing a new crewed moon landing by year end 2024.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program) Multiple private initiatives that may enable crewed landings on the Moon in the coming decade are also underway, including development of the [Blue Moon](https://www.blueorigin.com/blue-moon) and [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) vehicles. \nThis question asks: How many people will have landed on the Moon before 1 January 2030?\nThis question asks how many individual humans will have ever landed, and survived the landing, on the Moon before January 1 2030. Multiple visits made by the same human will not count more than once towards this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:45.214Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:21.506Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 258, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2019-10-03T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6543/closing-price-igm-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2023-02-14, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:22.699Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 94, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5946/sota-on-imagenet-on-2024-06-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2024-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:23.898Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 204, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-14T20:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-12-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the UK have a 7 day rolling average above 2,000 covid deaths before June?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6202/uk-2kday-covid-deaths/", @@ -38751,7 +38874,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:47.275Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:25.156Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 473, "resolution_data": { @@ -38781,7 +38904,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:49.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:26.391Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 99, "resolution_data": { @@ -38795,79 +38918,38 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "title": "When will the US pass 1 million cumulative COVID deaths?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6501/when-will-us-pass-1-million-covid-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:51.116Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:55.111Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 147, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "description": "As of 2021-02-22, 500,000 people have died of COVID-19 in the US.\nWhen will the US pass 1 million cumulative deaths from COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve according to [official data from the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#datatracker-home).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:57.073Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:27.647Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 162, + "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-05-02T05:15:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-01-01T06:16:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6514/percentage-in-us-in-top500-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Since the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will be based in the United States in the November 2022 publication of TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\n[fine print] This question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. [/fine-print] \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:29.513Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 79, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -38890,7 +38972,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:10:59.005Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:31.003Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 178, "resolution_data": { @@ -38909,9 +38991,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On 11 March, President Trump issued a [presidential proclamation](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspension-entry-immigrants-nonimmigrants-certain-additional-persons-pose-risk-transmitting-2019-novel-coronavirus/) that suspended “...entry into the United States, as immigrants or nonimmigrants, of all aliens who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the United States.” This travel ban was issued in response to the high number of COVID-19 cases in the Schengen Area relative to the U.S. at the time. The Schengen Area is comprised of [26 European countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schengen_Area). This ongoing suspension of travel from the Schengen Area to the U.S. does not apply to U.S. citizens, U.S. permanent residents, or most immediate family members of U.S. citizens/permanent residents.\nWhen will the U.S. lift its Presidential Proclamation restricting travel from the European Schengen Area?\nThe issuance of a presidential proclamation that fully lifts the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area will be considered for resolution. In the scenario that the U.S. lifts travel from the overall Schengen Area but keeps travel restrictions on some Schengen Area member countries, this will resolve if travel restrictions are lifted on at least 50% of Schengen Area countries, or at least 13 countries.\nIf the U.S. does not lift the suspension of travel from the Schengen Area before 2022, then this resolves as “> Dec 31, 2021.”\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:00.859Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:32.201Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 243, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -38922,6 +39004,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6829/derek-chauvin-convicted-of-homicide-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Derek Michael Chauvin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derek_Chauvin) is an American former police officer known for his involvement in the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis, Minnesota, on May 25, 2020.\nAs of 12 March 2021, he is charged with [second-degree unintentional murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.19), [third-degree murder](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.195), and [second-degree manslaughter](https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes/cite/609.205). He is presumed innocent until proven guilty. \n[Chauvin's televised murder trial began on March 8, 2021](https://www.wsj.com/articles/trial-of-former-officer-derek-chauvin-accused-of-killing-george-floyd-resumes-11615300939), with opening statements anticipated on March 29. The trial is expected to last approximately four weeks. He is presumed innocent until proven guilty.\nWill Derek Chauvin be convicted of homicide by June 1 2021?\nThis question resolves in the affirmative if prior to June 1, 2021, Chauvin is convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) in the case of [State of Minnesota v. Derek Chauvin](https://www.mncourts.gov/media/StateofMinnesotavDerekChauvin). The question resolves negatively if he is not so convicted prior to June 1, 2021.\nIn the event that this question is still open at the time deliberations begin, this question is to close retroactively at the time and date that the jury are instructed to begin their deliberations; or, in the event that Chauvin enters a plea which results in him being convicted of a homicide charge in this case, this question closes retroactively 24 hours before that plea is entered.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.52, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.48, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:33.601Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 510, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-14T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will Free Greens gain any seats in the next Danish general election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5217/frie-gr%25C3%25B8nnes-seats-in-the-danish-parliament/", @@ -38939,9 +39051,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:02.707Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:34.805Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 54, + "numforecasts": 55, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-15T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -38958,7 +39070,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2019, the stock price of plant-based unicorn [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/products/) [surged more than fivefold](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BYND/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvLnVrLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAGHCAq2S7UgkM_-LfR9bJZjCSy4dNORI1epAhOMlBLFWwanEmcwe6Iz5vklhYpHkG8qtHXlpA1lsrbznIw0LX6dctwniYEBxhL8Bs2NgYFQzPttra9RDUR0XGqTeuZ8SsUxokL8WfeEY6Lo9RNwowJF8BI8pdQNjzauRmjdqwAUI) in less than two months after it IP-Oed on the 3rd of May. The California-based startup is one of many producers developing innovative processes to more closely replicate the structure and taste of real meat using only plant-based ingredients. \nHow many publicly traded US- or EU-based plant-based meat producers will be valued at $1bn or more in October of 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of publicly traded plant-based meat producers that simultaneously valued at above $1bn at noon in local time on October 4th (i.e. [world animal day](https://www.worldanimalday.org.uk/)), 2023. \nFor a company to be considered a plant-based meat company, a \"substantial portion\" of its revenue must be generated through the sale plant-based meat products principally produced by the company itself or by its subsidiaries. A \"substantial portion\" here is defined as:\n---at least 80% of its revenue for a company valued between $1bn and $2bn, or \n---at least x%, such that x% of the company's valuation is at least $2bn \nThe company needs to be based (in the sense of either being registered or headquartered) in the the United States or any country that is member of the European Union as of July 2019 (this includes the United Kingdom), or Switzerland. Moreover, the company's stock needs to be traded on an exchange located in any of these countries.\nPlant based meat is here defined as any product that is made to mimic properties found within natural meats, and advertised as a meat substitute with meat-like qualities (such as taste, texture, nutritional content, or other factors).\nIn case the stock is traded in a different currency, the conversion shall be done by an admin at the time of resolving.Company valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:04.743Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:35.969Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -38971,6 +39083,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many NASA \"space launch system\" (SLS) launches before 2030?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1503/how-many-nasa-space-launch-system-sls-launches-before-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The first test launch of NASA's new \"Space Launch System\" rocket was originally scheduled to debut in 2017, but after many delays and cost overruns it [now seems unlikely that the rocket will launch before mid-2021.](http://spacenews.com/nasa-inspector-general-sharply-criticizes-sls-core-stage-development/)\nMeanwhile, rapid advancements by private companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin offer the promise of heavy-lift rockets (Falcon Heavy and New Glenn) with capabilities only slightly less than the SLS for a vastly lower cost. The arrival of these new rockets in the face of ongoing SLS costs and delays could provide strong political pressure to cancel NASA's most expensive human spaceflight program, [perhaps after only a handful of flights.](http://arstechnica.com/science/2018/03/nasa-chief-explains-why-agency-wont-buy-a-bunch-of-falcon-heavy-rockets/)\nOn the other hand, the SLS has strong political support at the moment, and it is already deeply interwoven into many aspects of NASA's future plans. In addition to the initial uncrewed and crewed test flights, [SLS is currently scheduled](http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2018/09/nasa-lunar-gateway-plans/) to send the \"Europa Clipper\" robotic probe to Jupiter sometime around 2023, and several launches will be required if NASA is to fully assemble the \"Lunar Gateway\" space station as currently envisioned.\nHow will these forces play out? Will endless delays ensure that only a small number of SLS launches happen before 2030? Will the program be canceled before 2030, ending the SLS after just a handful of flights? Or will the SLS find plenty of work constructing the Lunar Gateway and perhaps launching other large payloads?\nQuestion will resolve on January 1, 2030, or earlier if the SLS program is definitively canceled. Any distance lifted off the launchpad counts as a launch, regardless of whether the rocket explodes moments later.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:37.370Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 194, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-18T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4994/microwave-disruption-of-covid-19-virus-particles/", @@ -38988,7 +39119,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:06.500Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:38.569Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { @@ -39007,7 +39138,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics.. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for November 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for November 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:08.510Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:39.806Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -39037,9 +39168,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:10.488Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:41.399Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -39056,7 +39187,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "See details about male chick culling and in-ovo sexing technologies in [US version of this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3326/when-will-most-eggs-produced-in-the-usa-be-sexed-before-hatching/) posted by another user.\nGermany will prohibit the mass slaughter of day-old male chicks from the [end of 2021](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktuelles/kuekentoeten-wird-verboten-1841098), according to a draft bill [signed by the Cabinet](https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-ban-chick-shredding-from-2022-in-global-first/a-56285846), becoming the first country to do so. Germany produces 13% of EU eggs.\nFrench Agriculture Minister Didier Guillaume has repeatedly ([here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2019/10/30/le-broyage-des-poussins-devrait-etre-interdit-en-france-a-la-fin-de-2021_6017488_3244.html), [here](https://www.france24.com/en/20200113-germany-france-to-push-eu-to-end-shredding-of-male-chicks), [here](https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2020/01/28/la-france-veut-interdire-le-broyage-des-poussins-et-la-castration-a-vif-des-porcelets-a-la-fin-de-2021_6027528_3244.html), & [here](https://www.lci.fr/planete/quatre-questions-sur-la-fin-du-broyage-des-poussins-males-annonce-par-didier-guillaume-2143984.html)) said that France would end the shredding of chickens by the end of 2021. France produces 14% of EU eggs.\nIn March 2020, the Directorate of Production and Agrarian Markets of the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture [stated](https://www.cronicanorte.es/el-sacrificio-de-pollitos-macho-en-espana-podria-terminar-en-2021-segun-el-ministerio-de-agricultura/144696) that it is working with egg producers to end the annual culling of 35 million male chicks in Spain in 2021. The Ministry said producers were testing two different techniques of in-ovo sex detection. Spain produces 13% of EU eggs.\nThe Dutch Ministry of Agriculture responded to [animal welfare groups´ calls](https://www.nieuweoogst.nl/nieuws/2020/02/04/dierenorganisaties-willen-verbod-op-doden-kuikens) to phase out all chick culling including gassing in the Netherlands by the end of 2021 that '[a political solution is being explored](https://www.boerderij.nl/Registratie/?returnurl=%2fPluimveehouderij%2fAchtergrond%2f2020%2f5%2fDe-opmars-van-geslachtbepaling-bij-broedeieren-585600E%2f)' and that the Agriculture Minister would soon provide more information.The Netherlands produces 10% of EU eggs.\nAssoavi, the trade association representing the 70% of egg producers in Italy, has [committed](https://animalequality.it/news/2020/12/01/i-produttori-di-uova-italiani-si-impegnano-a-introdurre-le-tecnologie-in-ovo-sexing-per-mettere-fine-alluccisione-dei-pulcini-maschi/) to adopt in-ovo sexing technologies and to promote their application throughout the Italian supply chain. Assoavi itself started to actively lobby the Ministry of Health into allocating funds for research and implementation. Italy produces 10% of EU eggs\nWhen will most eggs produced in the EU be sexed before hatching?\nThis resolves as the estimated date when EU-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the EU that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo. For the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if:\n1--techniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and \n2--at least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching. \nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from one of the following credible independent sources: the Good Food Institute, Open Philanthropy, EFSA, or FAO.\nIn case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:12.181Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:42.631Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { @@ -39075,7 +39206,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [Hyperloop](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop) is a proposed mode of passenger and freight transportation; the name was first used to describe an open-source [vactrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vactrain) design released by a joint team from Tesla and SpaceX in 2013.\nIn essence, a Hyperloop is a sealed tube or series of tubes with low air pressure through which a pod carrying passengers or cargo may travel substantially free of drag. The Hyperloop could potentially convey people or objects at airliner or supersonic speeds while being substantially more energy efficient than existing commercial airliners. \nThe [Hyperloop Alpha](https://www.tesla.com/sites/default/files/blog_images/hyperloop-alpha.pdf) concept was first published in August 2013, proposing and examining a route running from the Los Angeles region to the San Francisco Bay Area, roughly following the Interstate 5 corridor. The Hyperloop genesis paper conceived of a Hyperloop system that would propel passengers along the 350-mile (560 km) route at a speed of 760 mph (1,200 km/h), allowing for a travel time of 35 minutes, which is considerably faster than current rail or air travel times. Preliminary cost estimates for this LA–SF suggested route were included in the white paper—US$6 billion for a passenger-only version, and US$7.5 billion for a somewhat larger-diameter version transporting passengers and vehicles.\nIn the seven years since Hyperloop was proposed, [a number of startup companies have outlined plans to design, build and commercialize Hyperloop technologies.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperloop#Hyperloop_companies) Some of these companies, including Virgin Hyperloop One and Hyperloop Transportation Technologies, [are building test tracks and pods](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luDqbIZGgQM), and [a number of interesting possible routes have been theorised](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oziSR8nOznA), but as of May 2020 there are no commercial Hyperloop tracks in operation.\nThis question asks: When will the first commercial Hyperloop system begin operation?\nFor the purposes of this question, a 'Hyperloop' is a transportation system designed for passenger or cargo transportation utilising a low-pressure tube or tunnel to reduce drag. Whether such a system is called a 'Hyperloop' or something else does not affect the resolution of this question.\nA 'commercial Hyperloop system' is a full-scale transportation system that functions to transport passengers or cargo on a commercial basis, where paying customers may purchase tickets or access passes to use the service. \nAdditionally, the system must possess the key characteristic of the Hyperloop concept: average speed substantially in excess of high-speed rail. The average point-to-point speed of the pod must be at least 400 kilometers per hour to qualify, and the minimum point-to-point distance is 10 kilometers.\nAmusement park rides or test tracks, paid or unpaid, do not count. Additionally, [pneumatic tube systems](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumatic_tube) that transport only very small objects like letters do not count.\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first paying customer using a qualifying Hyperloop system either completes their journey, or their cargo arrives at its destination.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:14.182Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:43.829Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -39094,7 +39225,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "After many years of developing a human-rated vehicle, SpaceX recently [carried humans](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4505/when-will-the-spacex-demo-2-launch/) to the International Space Station on its Crew Dragon capsule atop its partially-reusable Falcon 9 rocket.\nSpaceX's [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) rocket is an under-development super heavy-lift launch vehicle, intended to be fully reusable and to carry humans to destinations throughout the Solar System. Although SpaceX has proven that it can successfully accomplish some aspects of this (reuse a rocket's core stage multiple times, carry humans in a spacecraft), there are further milestones to overcome (recover all stages of a rocket, build a rocket from stainless steel, etc.).\nWhen will SpaceX's Starship carry a human to orbit?\nStarship has undergone many design and name changes since its inception. Therefore, for the purposes of this question, \"Starship\" refers to any SpaceX vehicle, or prototype/early version thereof, that is:\n---not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle must be intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n---The vehicle design must be descended from the current (2020) design of Starship. Any number of design changes are acceptable, but a redesign from scratch is not (see [Ship of Theseus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_of_Theseus)). \nTo be considered to reach orbit, the human in question must complete at least one orbit of some planetary body ; that is, while maintaining an altitude of at least 50 km, they must pass over the same longitude or the same latitude twice. It is acceptable if the human arrived in orbit on some other vehicle, and only subsequently entered Starship, as long as they complete one orbit while inside Starship. The human must be alive at the time that this occurs, but do not need to safely return to Earth (or, for that matter, anywhere else) afterwards.\n(Edited 2020-06-09 to add last three disambiguation bullets.)\n(Edited 2020-06-11 to remove obsolete clause about payload and adde acceptability of getting to orbit not on Starship.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:16.527Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:45.065Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 160, "resolution_data": { @@ -39124,9 +39255,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:18.976Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:46.807Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1075, + "numforecasts": 1076, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-30T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -39143,7 +39274,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Worldwide, fertility rates vary enormously](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependencies_by_total_fertility_rate). [Most of this variation is strongly related to national prosperity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility). Nevertheless, there is some remaining variation, such as northern Europe having higher fertility than southern Europe despite being wealthier. [Similarly, there are strong temporal trends across time and place](https://www.gapminder.org/tools/#$state$entities$show$country$/$in@=usa&=rus&=chn&=nga&=afg&=jpn&=srb&=dnk&=fra;;;;&marker$axis_y$which=children_per_woman_total_fertility&scaleType=linear&spaceRef:null;;;&chart-type=linechart).\nWhat will the total fertility rate be in USA for the year 2025?\n---USA total fertility rate for 2025 given by [Population Reference Bureau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Reference_Bureau). This organization chosen because they publish values before the others. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:20.728Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:48.055Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 56, "resolution_data": { @@ -39162,7 +39293,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[Will there be a global thermonuclear war by 2070?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3517/will-there-be-a-global-thermonuclear-war-by-2070/) \nAs of September 2020, the [Federation of Atomic Scientists](https://fas.org/issues/nuclear-weapons/status-world-nuclear-forces/) estimated that there are currently 13,410 nuclear warheads deployed or stockpiled among all nations on Earth. 1,800 of these are on high alert, able to be launched on short notice. This is a significant reduction from a peak of 70,300 weapons in 1986.\nSome activists, such as [the Global Zero campaign](https://www.globalzero.org/), wish to see total nuclear disarmament, whereas skeptics argue that nuclear weapons are necessary for a [strategy of deterrence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory).\nHow many nuclear weapons will exist on 2075-01-01?\nThis question will resolve as the number of deployed or stockpiled nuclear weapons on Earth, on 2075-01-01. The most recent estimate by a reputable and politically neutral source will be selected at time of resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:22.473Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:49.278Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -39175,6 +39306,44 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6556/when-will-lukashenko-leave-power-in-belarus/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Belarus held a presidential election on August 9th 2020. While the official results showed Alexander Lukashenko winning with over 80% of the vote, international observers considered the election to be neither free nor fair. A [large-scale protest movement emerged](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Belarusian_protests) and the authorities responded violently with over 1,000 testimonies of torture victims now documented.\nOpposition figure Valery Tsepkalo [predicted that the Lukashenko regime 'could fall in two weeks'](https://news.sky.com/story/belarus-alexander-lukashenkos-regime-could-fall-in-two-weeks-presidential-hopeful-predicts-12051939) back in August 2020 (shortly after the election). As of the writing of this question, well over 5 months after his comments, Lukashenko appears to be in full control and a [previous Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4918/alexander-lukashenko-to-remain-president-of-belarus-on-january-31st-2021/) asking whether he would remain in power until January 31st 2021 has resolved positively.\nHowever, Lukashenko has promised constitutional changes, which he says will be implemented [after a referendum in early 2022](https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-lukashenko-hints-at-leaving-but-not-today/a-56537777). Lukashenko has [previously promised to step down after a new constitution is adopted](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/lukashenko-belarus-election-b1762811.html). The opposition generally considers this an empty promise.\nWhen will Alexander Lukashenko leave power in Belarus?\nThis question will be resolved to the earliest date on which there is credible media reporting that Lukashenko has ceased to hold the office of president. In the case where Lukashenko claims to be president in addition to at least one other person, the question will resolve only if Lukashenko no longer holds the \"means of power\" (broadly, controls the military and police).\nIf Alexander Lukashenko does not leave power before the end of 2039, this question resolves as \">\".\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:50.600Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 34, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-18T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-01-01T17:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T17:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5588/us-government-spending-to-gdp-for-2024/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The US Government Spending to GDP can be found [here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-spending-to-gdp) on Trading Economics. As of writing this question, the most recent value was 37.8 percent.\nWhat will be the United States Government Spending to GDP for 2024?\nThis question resolves on the percent value of the US Government spending to GDP as reported by Trading Economics, or some other credible source, for the year 2024.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:51.792Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 36, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the S&P 500 hit 10,000 points by the end of the decade?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4527/will-the-sp-500-hit-10000-points-by-the-end-of-the-decade/", @@ -39192,9 +39361,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:24.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:53.752Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 145, + "numforecasts": 146, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-17T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -39205,6 +39374,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5201/will-kamala-harris-be-president-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).\nLikely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.\nThe latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.\nEven 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.\nWill Kamala Harris be president before inauguration day 2025?\nThe acting president of USA in the period according to typical US government sources.\nIf Harris assumes the position of the president for the remainder of the term scheduled to end in 2024, or becomes acting president for at least 30 days, this question resolves positively. Otherwise, it resolves negatively. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:54.953Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 416, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-09-11T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-10-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-10-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will ACE or any of its top or standout charities see a scandal related to racial inequity or discrimination in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6025/diversity-debacle-amongst-animal-advocates/", @@ -39222,7 +39421,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:26.156Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:56.154Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { @@ -39236,34 +39435,23 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will a Metaculus user report from space before 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2561/will-a-metaculus-user-report-from-space-before-2050/", + "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Short and fun question: Will a registered Metaculus user post a comment under this question from space before 2050? A photo would be nice too :) !\nFor this question to resolve positively the user must be at least 80km above the surface of the Earth at the time of posting the comment. Comments posted before launch or after landing will not count, sorry :) .\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will the total number of people who have gone to space reach 1000?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1519/when-will-the-total-number-of-people-who-have-gone-to-space-reach-1000/) \n---[When will the 10,000th human reach space? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1659/when-will-the-10000th-human-reach-space/) \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:28.149Z", + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:57.365Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 187, + "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-01-16T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2030-12-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { "title": "What will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?", @@ -39271,9 +39459,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 09 December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is reporting a total of 285,351 confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. This national death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant state/territory health authorities of each U.S. state and territory.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of 2021?\nThe [CDC COVID Data Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the CDC up to 31 December 2021.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:31.483Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:58.592Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 485, + "numforecasts": 486, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -39290,7 +39478,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the past few decades, AIs have achieved impressive wins against top human players in [go](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/45/in-2016-will-an-ai-player-beat-a-professionally-ranked-human-in-the-ancient-game-of-go/), [chess](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_Blue_(chess_computer)), [poker](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluribus_(poker_bot)), and [DOTA](https://openai.com/projects/five/). AI development is continuing in other games: [learning montezuma's revenge from scratch](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5460/ai-rapidly-learning-to-play-a-simple-game/), [playing association football against professional players](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_football), and [beating top humans in StarCraft 2](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/). Will AI ever beat humans in Poohsticks?\n[Poohsticks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poohsticks) is a simple game originally described by A.A. Milne in The House At Pooh Corner: any number of players meet on a bridge spanning a river, grab an object (such as a stick), and drop them on the river. the first stick to cross the other end of the bridge is the winner.\nThe World Poohsticks Championships has been held since 1984, currently managed by the Rotory Club of Oxford Spires. It may be the largest Poohsticks competition of any kind. The 2020 and 2021 championships were cancelled due to the COVID pandemic.\nCritics claim that Poohsticks is only a game of luck, but [Dr Rhys Morgan, Director of Engineering and Education at the Royal Academy of Engineering](https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/people/poohsticks-why-you-should-play-winnie-the-pooh-game-93361) believes there is a strategy in selecting your stick: an ideal stick should have the right cross-sectional area, buoyancy, and a surface with high drag.\nWhen will an AI defeat top human players in Poohsticks?\nThis question will resolve on the date of a contest in which an AI defeats a large pool of competitive human players. The AI may be an AI/robotics system, or a human with all strategic decisions chosen by the AI. Metaculus admins may, at their discretion, include contests other than The World Poohsticks Championships of Oxfordshire, England for this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:33.301Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:17:59.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -39320,7 +39508,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:35.119Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:01.110Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 268, "resolution_data": { @@ -39333,25 +39521,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6526/nlp-e-prints-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:37.020Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 83, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6476/musks-roadster-visited-by-2050/", @@ -39369,7 +39538,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:38.919Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:02.277Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -39382,43 +39551,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:40.750Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 127, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 6th parameter f_c: What fraction of planets with intelligent life are capable of interstellar communication?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1342/drakes-equation-6th-parameter-f_c/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is the sixth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the sixth parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the fraction of civilizations that develop a technology that releases detectable signs of their existence into space.\nAnything that would produce an unambiguous resolution that a planet bears intelligent life suffices. Radio signals are the technology that most suspect will bring about that resolution, but laser light, physical relics, and even gravitational waves can be considered.\nGiven our definition of intelligences as having both tool use and language, it seems unlikely that this parameter should be miniscule; nonetheless we give a range extending down to , open at the bottom, to be safe.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:42.651Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:03.455Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 255, "resolution_data": { @@ -39431,13 +39570,51 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6234/performance-of-top-supercomputer-in-june-2030/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as highest performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:04.650Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 147, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-14T19:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-05-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will the UK reach herd immunity (>53.3m) for Covid-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6105/uk-covid-herd-immunity-533m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Two vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 have been approved for use in the UK and the vaccination programme is underway. The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [~95%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) and the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has an estimated efficacy of [62%-90%](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32661-1/fulltext), depending on the dosing schedule. \nHerd immunity is expected to be reached when a sufficient proportion of the population has become immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection. [Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full-text) that the herd immunity threshold for this virus is 60%-70%. \nHowever, recent evidence indicates that [a more transmissible variant of SARS-CoV-2 has become dominant in the UK](https://app.box.com/s/3lkcbxepqixkg4mv640dpvvg978ixjtf/file/756964987830), which could raise the herd immunity threshold.\nWhen will the UK reach herd immunity >53.3m for Covid-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published stating that >53.3m people in the UK ( 80% of the UK population) have either received a Sars-Cov-2 vaccine or been infected by the virus.\nSince the herd immunity threshold is difficult to ascertain, this question resolves when >80% of people have been vaccinated or infected. This value is taken to be a proxy for herd immunity. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:05.881Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 292, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the global fertility rate be in 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4830/what-will-the-global-fertility-rate-be-in-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The age-specific fertility rate is the number of children born per woman per year for women at a specified age. Integrating over a lifetime gives a metric called the [total fertility rate](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#data-quality-definition), which is the average number of children that a woman would have if all the age-specific fertility rates stayed constant. \nGlobally, the total fertility rate was [2.49 children per woman](https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate#50-years-ago-the-average-woman-had-five-children-since-then-the-number-has-halved) in 2015, down from 5.05 in 1950. This large decline is part of what is known as the [demographic transition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition) from high birth rates and high child mortality to low birth rates and low child mortality. The causes of this include more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception. \nA [recent study](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521) by researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation extrapolates trends in education and contraception access and predicts that this decline in fertility rates will continue, reaching 1.33-2.08 in 2100.\nWhat will the global total fertility rate be in 2050?\nResolution will be by the figure for the year 2050 published by the [UN Population Division](https://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/) or other appropriate branch of the UN/WHO in the first edition released after 2050. If a figure is only available for a range of time of no more than 5 years that includes 2050, resolve at that value. If no such figures are available, then resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:44.386Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:07.056Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -39467,7 +39644,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:46.387Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:08.302Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -39486,7 +39663,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Over the last few centuries, the concentration of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere has risen from approximately 280 parts per million (pre-industrial) to approximately 410 ppm [[1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide_in_Earth%27s_atmosphere)]. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is one of the contributing factors driving climate change via the greenhouse effect.\nThe trend follows a seasonal cycle that reaches its peak in May, and has also risen at [an average rate of around 2ppm annually in the last ten years](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html).\nWhat will be the average atmospheric CO2 content observed throughout the year 2030?\nThe resolution will be based on the [globally, annually averaged figure provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html).\nIf this organization (or a successor) does not exist or no longer provides this information in 2030, the question should resolve ambiguously.\n(See also: [Worst-case scenario for global CO2 levels realized over the coming decades?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/336/worst-case-scenario-for-global-co2-levels-over-the-coming-decades/), which asks about a more severe milestone of 500ppm until 2050.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:48.077Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:09.496Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -39499,13 +39676,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Longbets series: By 2029 will a computer have passed the Turing Test?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3648/longbets-series-by-2029-will-a-computer-have-passed-the-turing-test/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Ray Kurzweil and Mitchell Kapor summarize their reasons for taking the bet [here](http://longbets.org/1/).\nIf the Long Now Foundation declares Ray Kurzweil the winner of the bet, then this question resolves positively. If they declare Mitchell Kapor the winner, then this question resolves negatively.\nEach Turing Test Session will consist of at least three Turing Test Trials. For each such Turing Test Trial, a set of Turing Test Interviews will take place, followed by voting by the Turing Test Judges as described below.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Judges.\nUsing its best judgment, the Turing Test Committee will appoint three Humans to be the Turing Test Human Foils. The Turing Test Human Foils should not be known (either personally or by reputation) to the Turing Test Judges.\nDuring the Turing Test Interviews (for each Turing Test Trial), each of the three Turing Test Judges will conduct online interviews of each of the four Turing Test Candidates (i.e., the Computer and the three Turing Test Human Foils) for two hours each for a total of eight hours of interviews conducted by each of the three Turing Test Judges (for a total of 24 hours of interviews).\nThe Turing Test Interviews will consist of online text messages sent back and forth as in a online \"instant messaging\" chat, as that concept is understood in the year 2001.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.39, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.61, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:10.787Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 333, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2029-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by Charm Industrial in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4861/what-will-be-the-cost-of-carbon-storage-sold-by-charm-industrial-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 416 tons of carbon storage from [Charm Industrial](https://charmindustrial.com/) at $600 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, Charm Industrial does not capture CO2 directly, sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by the growth of biomass by the production and injection of bio-oil into geologic storage. [Charm industrial has a long-term target of $45 per ton for carbon storage.](https://charmindustrial.com/blog/2020/5/17/a-new-negative-emissions-method-and-our-first-customer)\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Charm Industrial charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Charm Industrial for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from Charm Industrial, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask Charm Industrial to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf Charm Industrial has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because Charm Industrial has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:49.795Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:12.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { @@ -39524,7 +39731,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "SpaceX is rapidly developing their Starship launch system, a full reusable two-stage rocket intended to bring humans to Mars. So far one prototype, SN8, has flown high in the Earth's atmosphere, to a height of 12.5 km.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship reach orbit?\nThis question resolves to the date a Starship reaches orbit. If the Starship is launched more than 200,000 miles away form Earth without ever orbiting Earth, that will also be considered to be reaching orbit. There need not be a human on board for this question to resolve\nA Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria (based on the criteria [used here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4588/when-will-spacexs-starship-carry-a-human-to-orbit/)):\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:51.905Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:13.569Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { @@ -39543,7 +39750,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2015, 730 million people (9.9% of the world population) [lived in extreme poverty](https://ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty), defined as having a consumption below $1.90 per day in 2011 dollars.\nIn recent decades, this has dropped massively, from 36% of the world's population in 1990; a large part of this decrease has been due to development in China and India, and now extreme poverty is increasingly concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n[SDG 1](https://sdg-tracker.org/no-poverty), one of the Sustainable Development Goals, is to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank [predicts](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/30418/9781464813306.pdf) that, if nations and regions maintain their current economic growth rates, 479 million people will still live in extreme poverty in 2030.\nWhat will the percentage of the world population in $1.90-a-day (2011 PPP) poverty be in 2030?\nResolution is by the World Bank's [World Development Indicators](https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators) (World, Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011 PPP) (% of population), 2030). If data for 2030 is not available, but data for later and earlier years are available, resolve at a linear interpolation between the known years. If no such data becomes available within ten years, resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:53.882Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:15.125Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { @@ -39562,7 +39769,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a process of fertilization where an egg is combined with sperm outside the human body ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_vitro_fertilisation)). According to the [2015 Assisted Reproductive Technology report](https://www.cdc.gov/art/pdf/2015-report/ART-2015-National-Summary-Report.pdf) (the latest version of the report currently available), 72,913 IVF babies were born in the US in 2015, out of [a total of 3.98m](https://www.statista.com/statistics/195908/number-of-births-in-the-united-states-since-1990/). IVF babies thus accounted for 1.83% of all babies born that year in the United States.\nThis question asks: What fraction of babies born in the US in 2029 will have been conceived in vitro?\nQuestion resolves according to figures given in the 2029 edition of the Assisted Reproductive Technology report. If this report is not issued, the resolution will be determined by figures from the earliest authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the year 2029 and provide IVF birth counts. The number of total babies born in 2029 will be determined by the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/births.htm), or if this institute no longer exists, by whichever government entity replaces it.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:55.826Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:16.310Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -39592,7 +39799,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:11:57.759Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:18.124Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -39622,7 +39829,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:01.413Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:20.717Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -39641,7 +39848,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of [Open Philanthropy](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/)'s focus areas for making grants is reducing the chances of a [global catastrophic risk from advanced artificial intelligence](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence). \nIn previous years, the total amounts granted were:\n---2020: $14,210,367 \n---2019: $63,234,500 ([including a $55,000,000 grant to found the Center for Security and Emerging Technology](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants/georgetown-university-center-security-and-emerging-technology)) \n---2018: $4,160,392 \n---2017: $43,222,473 ([including a $30,000,000 grant of general support to OpenAI](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/global-catastrophic-risks/potential-risks-advanced-artificial-intelligence/openai-general-support)) \n---2016: $7,749,985 \n---2015: $1,186,000 ([to the Future of Life Institute](Future of Life Institute)) \nHow much will Open Philanthropy grant in their focus area of Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence in 2021?\nThis will resolve at the total amount listed on Open Philanthropy's [Grants Database](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants) page under the focus area Potential Risks from Advanced Artificial Intelligence made in the year 2021, when the first grant from 2022 is listed.\n---A grant is made in 2021 if the award date listed on its grant page is in 2021. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:03.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:21.934Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -39660,7 +39867,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Large space habitats have long been a dream of space enthusiasts. Elon Musk has recently [expressed an ambition](https://wccftech.com/spacex-launch-costs-down-musk/) to bring Starship launch costs down to $10/kg of payload. At launch costs in this range, it becomes economically realistic, if not necessarily likely, that enormous quantities of construction materials could be launched into space. With sufficiently low launch costs, a modestly sized permanent space habitat falls within reach of wealthy individuals, corporations and nation-states.\n\"[O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)\" properly refers to a specific, very large design for a space habitat. Many possible design variants are possible, most of them significantly smaller than the original proposal.\nWhen will the first O'Neill cylinder variant be completed?\nFor the purposes of this question, we will consider any space habitat that:\n--- \ninvolves a cylinder at least 500m in exterior length,\n--- \nat least 200m exterior diameter, and\n--- \nspins on its axis to create at least 0.5g of pseudogravity on its interior surface\n... to qualify as a valid variant of the O'Neill-type space habitat. \nThe date of completion of the structure will be determined by at least one credible media source reporting that such a structure has been completed.\nA structure will be considered a \"cylinder\" if its interior surface can be walked in a loop without walking on a 13% grade incline (the steepest incline felt on a regular 24-gon).\nThe purpose of this question is to gauge roughly when the first large space structures will be completed. This is why the resolution criteria call for a relatively small variant, rather than the megascale 8000m diameter original O'Neill cylinder design. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:05.192Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:23.464Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -39690,7 +39897,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:08.365Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:24.761Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { @@ -39703,13 +39910,73 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6462/whip-ban-by-2026-melbourne-cup/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Melbourne Cup is a famous and popular thoroughbred horse race conducted in Victoria, Australia, in November every year. The amount of prize money distributed is one of the highest in the world. The race is 3,200 metres (roughly two miles).\nIn Australian horse racing, whip use [is limited to five times before the final 100 metres, and not on consecutive strides, and \"at the jockey's discretion\" in the final 100 metres](http://aussieraces.com/new_whip_rules_164.html).\nA jockey was [fined AUD 30,000](https://www.racenet.com.au/news/kerrin-mcevoys-huge-melbourne-cup-whip-fine-cut-after-appeal-20201109) for \"overuse of the whip\" in the 2020 Cup, despite a warning to all jockeys [ahead of the Cup](https://www.theage.com.au/sport/racing/you-ve-been-warned-jockeys-sent-text-to-prevent-cup-whip-chaos-20201101-p56aht.html).\nThe Royal Society for the Protection of Animals Victoria (RSPCA Victoria) [has called for a total whip ban in horse racing](https://wwos.nine.com.au/horse-racing/melbourne-cup-rspca-victoria-call-for-total-whip-ban-in-horseracing-tiger-moth/3d8e6235-35b8-4f60-8419-1dc68b1764c8). Two papers [by Professor Paul McGreevy and colleagues at the University of Sydney](https://www.sydney.edu.au/news-opinion/news/2020/11/12/first-conclusive-evidence-horses-hurt-by-whips--whips-don-t-aid-.html) find that horses feel as much pain when whipped as a human would and that whipping during races does not make the races safer, faster or fairer. McGreevy \"would not be surprised\" if whipping is phased out in Australian racing within two years.\nRacing Victoria is considering for 2021 [a reform that will reduce, but not eliminate, the number of whip strikes permitted in a race](https://www.rspcasa.org.au/horse-racing-whip-reform/). \n[Supporters of the whip](https://www.racing.com/news/2020-09-08/comment-whip-ban-push-a-step-too-far#/) argue that padded whips have \"minimal impact\", whipping has been a \"vital tool of the sport since its inception\" and whipping allows for a horse to be \"fully tested\".\nWill the use of whips be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup thoroughbred horse race?\nWill the use of whips, including padded whips, be banned on or before the 2026 Melbourne Cup?\nA rule that allows for the use of the whip only \"in the case of an emergency\" or otherwise for safety reasons counts as a ban. \nThis question resolves positively provided the use of the whip is banned for one or more Melbourne Cups between now and the end of 2026, even if the ban is rescinded in time for the 2026 Cup. \nIf no Melbourne Cup takes place in 2026, and whips have not been banned beforehand, this resolves negatively. \nChanges to the race, like length or date it takes place, will not affect resolution provided there are still one or more horse races branded as the \"Melbourne Cup\", of two-miles length (plus or minus 10%), taking place in the state of Victoria, and the whip is banned for all of them. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.6, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.4, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:25.932Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 26, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-08T13:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-30T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-08T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will a new land speed record be set by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3117/will-a-new-land-speed-record-be-set-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [land speed record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_speed_record) (or absolute land speed record) is the highest speed achieved by a person using a vehicle on land. There is no single body for validation and regulation; in practice the Category C (\"Special Vehicles\") flying start regulations are used, officiated by regional or national organizations under the auspices of the Fédération Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA).\nThe land speed record (LSR) is standardized as the speed over a course of fixed length, averaged over two runs (commonly called \"passes\"). Two runs are required in opposite directions within one hour, and a new record mark must exceed the previous one by at least one percent to be validated.\nThe current land speed record was set on October 15, 1997 by Andrew Duncan Green, a British Royal Air Force fighter pilot, who achieved a speed of 1,228 km/h (763 mph) with the [ThrustSSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrustSSC), which became the first land vehicle to officially break the sound barrier. \nThis question asks: will the ThrustSSC's land speed record be surpassed before 1 January 2025?\nResolution is by press release from the FIA, or credible media reports, indicating that a new land speed record has been set and validated.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:27.118Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 148, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-09-24T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6113/autonomous-flying-cars-when/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [number of companies](https://tracxn.com/explore/Flying-Cars-Startups-in-United-States) are developing cars that fly themselves. Many of these ventures are eyeing 2021-2022 for commercial flying car/taxi operations in the United States. \nTwo previous binary questions (for [2017](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/399/prototype-self-flying-taxi-in-2017/) and [2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/475/flying-cars-finally-arriving-by-2021/)) have asked when flying cars will (if ever) arrive for commercial use. So far, they've received only negative verdicts. This question asks the Metaculus community to put a date on it.\nWhen will autonomous flying vehicles be commercially available?\nThis question will resolve when the first commercial (non-test) flight of an autonomous flying vehicle, carrying at least one passenger, occurs in any country, as reported by credible media outlets. This question can also resolve when a company offers for sale or rent to consumers an autonomous flying vehicle capable of carrying at least one person, and this product is actually delivered and works as intended, as reported by credible media outlets. Either condition alone (whichever comes first) is sufficient for resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:10.279Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:28.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 74, "resolution_data": { @@ -39728,7 +39995,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe number of people employed in the US educational systems rose approximately [1.2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) over the last decade between 2011 and 2019. However, this growth is not expected to continue. By 2026, only [300,000](https://www.statista.com/statistics/683023/us-employment-projection-for-education-sector/#:~:text=U.S.%20employment%20projection%20for%20education%20sector%202019%2D2026&text=This%20statistic%20shows%20the%20projected,have%20around%2014.47%20million%20employees.) more people are expected to be employed in this industry, an unpleasant reality for a country with a government which routinely cuts the budgets for its public education facilities. In February of 2020, [President Trump announced](https://www.forbes.com/sites/wesleywhistle/2020/02/10/trump-budget-proposes-cuts-to-education/?sh=368679fe708d) a new plan which would cut the education budgets by 8%. He also supported plans to cut standardized loans for students enrolling in higher education. \nWith resources already stretched thin during the economic crisis brought by COVID-19 in 2020, higher education institutions are forced to continue [furloughing employees](https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/09/02/colleges-furlough-more-employees) due to decreased governmental support and student tuition payments. Teachers and staff in secondary schools across the country are also being asked to [take pay cuts](https://www.edweek.org/education/battered-by-coronavirus-closures-some-school-districts-are-starting-to-furlough-staff/2020/04) and furloughed days. \nGoing forward, with new political leaders in federal and state governments, and a COVID-19 vaccine on the way, we should hopefully see budgets increase and teachers and staff returning to their positions in 2021. President Elect Biden has promised to [triple funding to K-12 programs](https://www.bestcolleges.com/blog/joe-biden-education-policy-2020-presidential-election/) serving low income students, to an estimated $48 billion dollars, with requirements that most of the money initially go to teachers.\nHow many people will be employed in the US education industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information. \nIn 2019, over 14 million people were employed in this industry, up from just under 13 million in 2011.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:12.010Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:29.512Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -39747,7 +40014,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), the most cases reported in a single day so far has been 132,797, on November 6.\nWhat will be the maximum number of COVID-19 cases reported in a single day in the United States before 2025?\nThe number of cases in a day will be according to [The New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Worldometers](https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [Johns Hopkins](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html). If that site is no longer functional at the time of resolution, resolves according to [KFF](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/fact-sheet/coronavirus-tracker). If none of these sites are functional at the time of resolution, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:13.814Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:30.687Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 187, "resolution_data": { @@ -39766,7 +40033,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Gallup polls the public to determine the job approval of former presidents, which they refer to as the retrospective job approval. On February 15th of 2018 they [published poll results showing Obama's retrospective job approval rating was 63%](https://news.gallup.com/poll/226994/obama-first-retrospective-job-approval-rating.aspx), an improvement over his final job approval rating in office of 59% as polled by Gallup. Trump's final job approval rating in office was [34% according to Gallup](https://news.gallup.com/poll/328637/last-trump-job-approval-average-record-low.aspx).\nWhat will be Trump's first retrospective job approval rating?\nWhat will Gallup report Trump's first retrospective job approval rating to be? If Gallup does not report a retrospective job approval rating for Trump by the resolution date the question will close as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:15.615Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:31.894Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -39785,7 +40052,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Bryan Caplan [writes](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/),\nBy popular demand, I’ve created a publicly-viewable wiki for my Complete Bet Inventory. From now on, I’ll edit it when I make new bets or when old bets resolve.\nTo repeat, my track record now stands at 20/20. Twenty of my bets have come due, and I have won every single one of them. [...]\nWill I lose eventually? Almost surely, because I’m going to keep betting. And if I live long enough, my superior knowledge and judgment will probably fade away. I know, moreover, that pride goeth before the fall. One of the best ways to start losing bets is to dwell on “my superior knowledge and judgment.”\nWhen will Bryan Caplan first announce that he lost a bet?\nThis question resolves on the date which Bryan Caplan first publishes some sort of information publicly which indicates that he lost a bet. Acceptable public mediums include, but are not limited to, Twitter, his blog, and his public posts on his Facebook wall. A note in which he says that he will lose a bet that has not yet resolved does not count as a declaration that he has lost a bet.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:17.535Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:33.072Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 49, "resolution_data": { @@ -39804,7 +40071,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Canadian-US border was closed on March 21 2020 for non-essential travel due to the novel coronavirus. It was originally due to reopen on July 21, but upon review the border closure was extended for another month, and upon review in August the closure was extended again. [It is currently due to reopen on September 21 2020 but this reopening could be pushed back again.](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53742684) A July Ipsos Reid poll found 8 in 10 Canadians support the border staying closed until the end of 2020.\nWhen will the US-Canada border reopen?\nThis question resolves positively if the Governments of both Canada and the US agree that the border has reopened to non-essential personal travel.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:19.750Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:34.298Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 403, "resolution_data": { @@ -39823,7 +40090,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Grand Theft Auto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto) (GTA) is a series of action-adventure games created by David Jones and Mike Dailly. The series has been critically acclaimed and commercially successful, having shipped more than 280 million units with an [estimated gross revenue of over $9 billion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-grossing_video_game_franchises#At_least_$5_billion), making it the fourth-highest selling video game franchise of all time, behind Nintendo's Mario and Pokémon franchises, and Tetris.\nThe latest major instalment in the series, [Grand Theft Auto V](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_V), was released in 2013. It was the first main entry in the Grand Theft Auto series since 2008's [Grand Theft Auto IV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Theft_Auto_IV).\nWhen will GTA VI be released?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the next major instalment in the GTA series (e.g. not an expansion pack or handheld game), the successor to GTA V, is released for sale to the public in the United States. The game need not necessarily be called 'GTA VI' for a positive resolution; any name will suffice, as long as it is intended as the next major instalment in the series. \nThis date is the date on which the game can either be purchased from retailers, or directly downloaded from an online store, not the date on which the game becomes available for pre-order.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:21.511Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:35.541Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { @@ -39842,9 +40109,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 50% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 165 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:23.721Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:36.817Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 405, + "numforecasts": 410, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -39855,43 +40122,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6419/marjorie-taylor-greene-expelled/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Marjorie Taylor Greene](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marjorie_Taylor_Greene) is an American politician, businesswoman, and conspiracy theorist currently serving as a U.S. Representative for Georgia's 14th congressional district. She was elected to Congress in the November 2020 elections, and took office on January 3, 2021.\nGreene has voiced support for conspiracy theories including [Pizzagate](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/politics/kfile-marjorie-greene-spread-conspiracies/index.html), [QAnon](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/03/us/politics/qanon-candidates-marjorie-taylor-greene.html), [false flag shootings](https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/01/22/marjorie-taylor-greene-parkland-sandyhook/) as a means for Congress to legislate for gun control, [9/11 conspiracy theories](https://www.mediamatters.org/false-flag-conspiracy-theory/facebook-2018-rep-marjorie-taylor-greene-endorsed-conspiracy-theories), and [\"Frazzledrip\"](https://twitter.com/willsommer/status/1354176025274404864) (Hillary Clinton torturing a baby and wearing its face as a mask). She [has also expressed support for executing leading Democratic politicians on Facebook](https://www.cnn.com/2021/01/26/politics/marjorie-taylor-greene-democrats-violence/index.html).\nDue to her controversial views and outspoken style, she is potentially at risk of expulsion. [Five members of congress have been expelled in the past](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expulsion_from_the_United_States_Congress#Expulsions_from_Congress) and it takes a two-thirds majority to do so.\nWill Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene (R, GA-14) be expelled or resign by 1 Jan 2022\nThis question resolves positively if Majorie Taylor Greene is expelled from Congress or she resigns her seat and is not a member of Congress (House or Senate) by 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if Majorie Taylor Greene is not alive on 1 Jan 2022.\nThis question resolves negatively otherwise.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:25.507Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 232, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-31T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T06:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic) is an ongoing global pandemic of [coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the [SARS-CoV-2 virus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2), first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of July 15, 2020, [more than 13.3 million cases have been confirmed globally, 3.43 million of which in the United States](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data).\nOn March 13, 2020, Trump [declared a National Emergency concerning the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-declaring-national-emergency-concerning-novel-coronavirus-disease-covid-19-outbreak/).\nThis question resolves as the date on which the seven-day [simple moving average](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average#Simple_moving_average) of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in the US, as reported by [the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control](https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/publications-data/download-todays-data-geographic-distribution-covid-19-cases-worldwide), is equal to or lower than 10% of its highest previous value. More specifically, it resolves as the date in the output of the following Python program (if/when it outputs any date):\nimport pandas as pd csv_file = pd.read_csv(\"https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv\") us_data = pd.DataFrame(csv_file[csv_file['countriesAndTerritories'] == 'United_States_of_America']).iloc[::-1] us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] = us_data.iloc[:,4].rolling(window=7).mean() maximum = us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].max() index_of_maximum = us_data.loc[us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] == maximum].index[0] date_of_resolution = us_data.loc[ (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'] <= 0.1 * maximum) & (us_data['new_cases_rolling_averages'].index <= index_of_maximum)].head(1)['dateRep'] print(date_of_resolution) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:27.402Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:38.040Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 315, "resolution_data": { @@ -39910,7 +40147,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Exercise may make you live longer. But it also costs time.\n\nQuestion\n\nHow many minutes a day of out-of-breath endurance exercise can someone healthy do from the age of 25, before another minute adds less than a minute of extra life?\n\nDefinitions\n\nEndurance exercise means time spent out of breath for over five minutes. It doesn't include rest, travel, work to pay for equipment and so on. But out-of-breath running, cycling, swimming and so on count.\nExtra life means you live longer. It doesn't include time that would otherwise be spent, say, working to pay for a doctor, and so on.\nWe'll take someone healthy to mean a person who:\n--- \nwas born in the 1990s,\n--- \ndoesn't smoke,\n--- \neats over 500 grams a day of fruit and vegetables,\n--- \nhas body fat that weighs under 18% of their mass if they're a man, and under 25% if they're a woman,\n--- \ndrinks under 70 grams a week of [pure alcohol](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_of_alcohol), and\n--- \nlives in a [World Bank high-income country](https://data.worldbank.org/income-level/high-income).\n\nResolution\n\nThe question closes if, after [2022-01-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2022-01-01+00%3A00+UTC), the gap from the community's 25% value to its 75% value becomes less than or equal to 8 minutes a day. Then a Metaculus staff member gets a random integer from 1 to 10 from a website such as [randomnumbers.info](http://www.randomnumbers.info/).\n--- \nIf the number is 1 to 9, the question resolves as the community's median.\n--- \nIf the number is 10, the question resolves by a search as in the next paragraph.\nOtherwise, the question closes at [2023-07-01 00:00 UTC](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2023-07-01+00%3A00+UTC). Then a Metaculus staff member searches for 'physical activity mortality' in the health database [Epistemonikos](https://www.epistemonikos.org/en/search?q=physical+activity+mortality). He or she finds the latest [systematic review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systematic_review) that is relevant to this question. The question resolves as the review's estimate.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:29.209Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:39.295Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { @@ -39940,7 +40177,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:31.262Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:46.493Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 227, "resolution_data": { @@ -39959,7 +40196,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Robot judges that can determine guilt will be 'commonplace' within 50 years](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/) ([archive link 1](https://archive.is/5W1r8), [archive link 2](https://web.archive.org/web/20201101023742/https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/19/robot-judges-can-determine-guilt-will-commonplace-within-50/)) is an article in the Telegraph which reports on various predictions made by [Terence Mauri](https://twitter.com/terencemauri?lang=en), namely: \n---Robot judges that can determine guilt based on body language and voice changes will be \"commonplace\" in the UK within 50 years, an expert has claimed. \n---Machines will be capable of detecting physical and psychological signs of dishonesty \"with 99.9 per cent accuracy\" \n---The judges will use an array of cameras to search for behaviour \"indicative of wrongdoing or probable falsehoods\", including irregular speech patterns, unusually high increases in body temperature and hand and eye movements. \n---Data will be then be analysed using artificial intelligence (AI) with the equivalent processing power of 100,000 PCs to build up an almost \"error-free\" and unbiased picture of whether a defendant or witness is telling the truth. \n---Robot judges will replace the majority of human judges and become \"commonplace\" in most criminal and civil hearings in England and Wales by the early 2070s, according to the two-year study \n---In a legal setting, AI will usher in a new, fairer form of digital justice whereby human emotion, bias and error will become a thing of the past \n---Most other legal roles (i.e., not senior judges or barristers and solicitor advocates - lawyers who speak in court) - including solicitors, chartered legal executives, paralegals, legal secretaries, and court clerks - will become automated within half a century \n---AI will replace judges in most criminal and civil hearings in the magistrates, county, and family courts where a jury is not required \n---Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying \nWhat percentage of these 9 questions will resolve correctly in 2070? (with probabilistic resolutions being possible)\nWhat percentage of predictions about \"robotic judges\" in 2070 will Terence Mauri get right?\nIn 2070, a panel selected by the author or Metaculus moderators will assign probabilities to each of the statements having happened (so e.g., a very ambiguous event could make a statement resolve to 50%). These panel resolutions will be averaged, summed and normalized to get a value between 0% and 100% corresponding to the number of predictions which were correct. \nExamples: \n---If all predictions are considered correct, this question resolves to 100. \n---If none are considered to be correct, this question resolves to 0. \n---If half of the questions are considered to not be correct, and half are 50% ambiguous, this question resolves to 25. \nThe term \"robotic judges\" includes any kind of automated AI system. If the concepts which a statement assumes are no longer used by society (e.g., there is no legal system any more), statements shall be judged to be false. I.e., if there are no robotic judges, the phrase \"Robotic judges will be polite, speak every known language fluently, and be able to detect the otherwise unnoticeable signs when a witness might be lying\" could be construed as being correct, but for the purposes of this question it should not be. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:32.990Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:47.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -39978,7 +40215,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The national debt of the United States is the debt, or unpaid borrowed funds, carried by the federal government of the United States, which is measured as the face value of the currently outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal government agencies.\n[As of May 5 2020, debt held by the public was $19.149 trillion and intragovernmental holdings were $5.909 trillion, for a total or \"National Debt\" of $25.057 trillion.](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/govt/reports/pd/pd_debttothepenny.htm)\n[You can view a live National Debt Clock here.](https://www.usdebtclock.org/)\nThis question asks: When will the United States national debt reach $50 trillion nominal dollars?\nResolution should cite figures from the US Treasury or a US federal government agency responsible for managing the national debt or producing economic statistics.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:35.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:48.807Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -39997,7 +40234,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict ACE's finances in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will be donated to ACE in 2021?\nThis question will be resolved according to ACE's own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, ACE's revenue for 2019 can be found under 2019/Revenue by Source/Total, and amounts to $1,217,757\nIf the financials page has changed, but ACE makes the number available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:37.248Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:49.954Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -40016,7 +40253,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is a straightforward [Keynesian beauty contest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keynesian_beauty_contest) trying to address whether self-resolving questions are a good idea.\nThis question asks: \nWhat will be the sentiment of Metaculus users with regard to self-resolving questions at the end of 2022? See [the discussion about self resolving questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/).\nPredictions close to 1 will mean that users sentiment will be positive and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a good idea and score close to -1 will mean that users sentiment is negative and self-resolving questions will be perceived as a bad idea.\nIt is up to you to decide whether you want to provide your own sentiment, your estimate of the sentiment of other Metaculus users, or the estimate of the estimates of the sentiment of other Metaculus users etc.\nResolution criteria: \nWith probability of 80% this question will resolve on the mean of predictions for this question at the close time. There will be 20% probability that a poll will be open at the end of 2022 asking users to express their sentiment about self-resolving questions. The random draw deciding the resolution method will be made by Metaculus sometime after the close date.\nThe details of the poll will be decided only if the poll will have to be organized. It will open around the end of 2022, hopefully by the 1st of December 2022. Reasonable delays in organizing the poll are expected. The poll will be very likely organized in a way that will take the least amount of work from the organizers and Metaculus moderators. It may be as simple as two comments representing sentiments. The ratio of up-votes between the comments scaled and shifted to -1, 1 range could be the resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:39.198Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:51.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { @@ -40029,13 +40266,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many members will Giving What We Can have on its 20th anniversary?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Today marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:52.805Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 162, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-18T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-11-16T03:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2029-11-16T03:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6048/tomb-of-the-first-qin-emperor-opened/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The World Heritage-listed [Mausoleum of the First Qin Emperor](https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/441/) in the Shaanxi province of China was constructed in the third century BC. It is a necropolis, of which the [\"garrison\" of Terracotta Warriors](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news/2016/10/china-first-emperor-terra-cotta-warriors-tomb/) is probably the best known feature. \nThe Chinese history Records of the Grand Historian [says the tomb chamber has arrow traps and \"rivers\" and \"seas\" of mercury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mausoleum_of_the_First_Qin_Emperor#History). The craftsmen who worked on the mausoleum were said to have been buried alive inside of it. \nUnusually high levels of mercury have been found at the site, lending credence to the account of \"rivers of mercury\". However, others have attributed the readings to local industrial pollution. \nThe risk of active traps and mercury poisoning are sometimes given as the reason why the main tomb chamber - where the first emperor of China is presumably buried - is yet to be excavated, although it seems more likely that the Chinese government is waiting until the resources and technology are available to preserve the mausoleum when it is excavated (a range of reasons are given [here](https://www.travelchinaguide.com/attraction/shaanxi/xian/terra_cotta_army/mausoleum_2.htm)).\nWhen will the the main tomb chamber of the mausoleum of Qin Shi Hua be opened?\nThis question will resolve positively according to credible reports that the main tomb chamber at the mausoleum complex has been opened at least enough to admit a light and a camera (i.e. a person doesn't need to gain entry provided there's enough of an opening to see inside). \nThis will also resolve positively if an opening is created by natural causes, retroactively if an existing entrance is found and reported after the opening of the question, and ambiguously if an existing entrance is reported to have been found before the opening of the question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:40.910Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:53.978Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { @@ -40048,13 +40304,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:55.151Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 64, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will AI be able to accurately infer the implied ending of the children's book, \"I Want My Hat Back\"?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6087/when-will-ai-understand-i-want-my-hat-back/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The ending of the children's book \"[I Want My Hat Back](https://smile.amazon.com/I-Want-My-Hat-Back/dp/0763655988/ref=smi_www_rco2_go_smi_4368549507?_encoding=UTF8&%2AVersion%2A=1&%2Aentries%2A=0&ie=UTF8)\" by Jonathan Klassen implies that a rabbit was eaten by a bear. It is not stated explicitly, but clues throughout the short picture book make it clear what happened. Most human readers of a certain age can connect the dots, but when could AI?\nI call it the Bear Eats A Rabbit (BEAR) Test.\nI am working on a documentary about this very question and looking for more opinions on the feasibility of the task (hence why I am asking you fine people!). \nSee the first episode [here](https://vimeo.com/477404920).\nSo what do you think?\nWhen will AI be able to infer the implied ending of the children's book \"I Want My Hat Back\" and accurately answer the question: \"What happened to the rabbit\"?\nThis resolves positively when an AI system can take a scanned or digital copy of the book \"I Want My Hat Back\" as input and is able to correctly respond to the question \"What Happened to the rabbit?\" within no more than five tries. \nCorrect responses to the question are statements of the effect that the bear ate the rabbit (\"The bear ate it\", \"It was eaten by the bear\", or some equivalent). \nIf no serious attempts are made before 2041-01-01, this question resolves as \">2041-01-01\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:49.817Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:56.500Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 255, "resolution_data": { @@ -40073,7 +40348,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n---[When will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1048/when-will-the-next-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved/) \n---[Will a Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028? [closed]](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/236/will-another-millennium-prize-problem-be-solved-in-the-next-decade/) \n---[If the Riemann Hypothesis is solved by 2100, will it be proven true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/) \nThe Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nWhen will the next Millennium Prize Problem be solved?\nThe question will be resolved on the date the Clay Mathematics Institute officially awards their next prize for one of the remaining 6 problems. If they do, the question will retroactively close to the date of the first media reports of a qualifying proof (including journal publications or preprints).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:51.495Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:57.645Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -40086,25 +40361,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:53.190Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-23T22:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-17T22:40:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the United States continue to be among the 20 countries with the largest deterioration in state stability over the 2019-2029 period, according to the Fragile States Index?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3125/will-the-united-states-continue-to-be-among-the-20-countries-with-the-largest-deterioration-in-state-stability-over-the-2019-2029-period-according-to-the-fragile-states-index/", @@ -40122,7 +40378,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:55.109Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:18:58.896Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -40141,7 +40397,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. It was released on 6th January 2017.\nWikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify), including their date of release.\nWhat will the release date of the first song to be streamed 4 billion times on Spotify be?\nThere is a [parent Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6373/) that asks when a song will first have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify.\nIf that question resolves below its upper bound, then this question resolves as the release date of the song that caused its resolution.\nIf that question resolves as above upper bound or resolves ambiguously, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:56.940Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:00.554Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { @@ -40154,32 +40410,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5755/china-to-usa-gdp-ratio-in-2050/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[There is a lot of discussion about the rise of China as a global superpower](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_superpowers#China). [One interesting way to quantify it, is to look at the ratio of GDP nominal of the current global superpower, USA, to China](https://www.unz.com/akarlin/chinese-gdp-in-2050-the-debate/). [So far, this value has changed from 0.11 in 1980 to 0.69 in 2020 (estimated)](https://mgmresearch.com/china-vs-united-states-a-gdp-comparison/). China shows an average higher GDP growth, so it stands to reason it may surpass the US by some ratio in 2050, but which? Note, this question is NOT about \"per capita\" numbers, but take into account the changes in population sizes and how these may affect GDP.\nWhat will the China-to-USA GDP ratio be in 2050?\n---IMF published GDP [nominal dataset](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). \n---If IMF stops publishing this, administrators choose a new similar dataset. \nRelated questions: \n---[When will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4443/when-will-china-surpass-the-united-states-economically-militarily-and-scientifically/) \n---[Will China be the World's largest economy in any year before 2040?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1579/will-china-be-the-worlds-largest-economy-in-any-year-before-2040/) \n---[Will Chinese official real GDP numbers be revised downward by at least 5% before 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2670/will-chinese-official-real-gdp-numbers-be-revised-downward-by-at-least-5-before-2023/)* \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:12:58.884Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 106, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2051-04-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6400/total-retail-sales-in-march-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Retail sales](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510128&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) measure the total receipts from all stores that sell merchandise and related products to final consumers. This helps to track consumer demand for durable and non-durable goods over a specified time frame. The retail sales data is compiled monthly by the [US Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html), and it also reported through the [Econoday calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us).\nPatterns in consumer spending inform total consumer demand, which has great influence on the stock and bond markets. Should retail sales fall, it would indicate a drop in demand, foretelling potential economic contraction. Consumers generally buy more when they feel confident in the economy and its future.\nTotal retail sales are generally divided into different sections, usually by durability. These include: apparel, department stores, food and beverage stores, electronics and appliances, furniture stores, gas stations, and car dealers\nUnderstanding the movements in consumer demand across these different industries can help investors know when, where, and how to invest across the stock market, and provide clues to the Federal Reserve and other parties on the future movements of the economy.\nRelated questions:\n[Total Retail Sales January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5795/total-retail-sales-in-january-2021/)\n[Total Retail Sales February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5796/total-retail-sales-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will the total retail sales including food services be for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the US Census Bureau on their [monthly retail trade reports](https://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/timeseries.html). It will include all retail sales including food services. If this data is no longer collected or posted, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:00.777Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:01.955Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 178, "resolution_data": { @@ -40209,7 +40446,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:02.470Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:03.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -40239,7 +40476,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:04.217Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:04.736Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -40252,6 +40489,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:05.973Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 148, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will the LVCC loop overwhelmingly use autonomous vehicles before 2023?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6603/autonomous-vehicles-in-lvcc-loop-2023/", @@ -40269,9 +40525,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:06.083Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:07.214Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -40282,62 +40538,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3399/when-will-the-last-metaculus-question-resolution-occur/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Important notice: You will probably not get any points from this question. Please predict your best guess anyway.\nFrom [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaculus):\nMetaculus is a reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs.\nAnd:\nPhysicists Greg Laughlin, Anthony Aguirre and data scientist Max Wainwright launched the site in 2015.\nSince the beginnings of this august endeavor are so well documented, it's only fair that its future should be well predicted.\nQuestion: When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?\nResolution details:\n--- \n\"the last Metaculus question resolution\" is here defined as either:\n------Any resolution that occurs with at least X consecutive years without any other resolutions afterwards, where X is 8 times the age of Metaculus at time of said resolution. \n------The resolution of this question by a Metaculus Admin, tidying up because Metaculus is closing down for good. \n--- \nWhen this has not occurred in the year 3000, this question resolves to > 3000.\n--- \nIf Metaculus evolves so much that either \"resolution\" or \"Metaculus question\" becomes ill-defined (as judged by a Metaculus Admin), this resolves ambiguous.\n--- \nIf the concepts of \"when\", \"will\", \"last\" or \"occur\" become ill-defined, this question resolves to the 15th of October 2498 (the last total solar eclipse of the 25th century according to [NASA](https://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEcat5/SE2401-2500.html)).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:07.981Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 148, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-12-07T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2999-12-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more) in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5926/bear-market-in-sp-500-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The S&P 500 has recently closed at [new record highs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html) as part of a sustained recovery that follows a [34% bear market in March/April 2020](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/07/dow-sp-can-keep-climbing-markets-wall-of-worry-history-says.html) due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Market analysts [have questioned](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-sentiment-hitting-ludicrous-territory-but-when-will-bulls-pay-the-piper-11607639918) how long the ongoing bullish market run will continue.\nWill the S&P 500 experience a bear market (peak to trough decline of 20% or more)?\nThis will resolve on the basis of whether the [S&P 500](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/?symbol=.SPX) experiences a bear market in 2021, defined here as when prices in the market decline by 20% or more. Such a fall can occur over a short time or extended period of time.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.25, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.75, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:09.841Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 323, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-31T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How many laws will be enacted during the 117th United States Congress?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4895/how-many-laws-will-be-enacted-during-the-117th-united-states-congress/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The website [govtrack.us](http://govtrack.us) tracks many aspects of the United States government. [This page](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/statistics) shows statistics about how many laws are enacted during each congressional session. As of July 24th 2020, the current session of congress is 116. The 117th United States congress is scheduled to last from January 3rd 2021 to January 3rd 2023. A large number of laws enacted by the 117th congress may indicate a highly productive session.\nHow many laws will be enacted by the US Federal Government during the 117th United States Congress?\nFor reference, I have repeated the number of laws enacted by the US Federal Government during each session of congress in recent history in a table below.\n* Indicates that the current session has not yet concluded.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:11.822Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:08.405Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { @@ -40367,7 +40574,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:13.533Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:10.012Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -40386,7 +40593,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The number of cryonics patients in storage at the Cryonics Institute (CI) has been increasing steadily since it was founded in 1976. From 2009 to 2019, [the total number of patients](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/) increased from 95 to 177.\nHow many patients will be in cryonic suspension at the Cryonics Institute in 2030?\nThis question resolves to the largest number of patients in cryonic suspension at CI in 2030, cited in any report published by CI that year which gives such a number. If there is no such report (for any reason) this question resolves ambiguous. A \"patient\" is here taken to mean any preserved human brain (incl. neuropreservation, whole-body cryopreservation, etc.).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:15.652Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:11.240Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { @@ -40399,13 +40606,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will we find life on Mars by 2050?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6632/will-we-find-life-on-mars/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_on_Mars),\nThe possibility of life on Mars is a subject of huge interest in astrobiology due to its proximity and similarities to Earth. To date, little proof has been found of past or present life on Mars. Cumulative evidence suggests that during the ancient Noachian time period, the surface environment of Mars had liquid water and may have been habitable for microorganisms.\nLife on Mars would not necessarily be indicative of a separate evolutionary lineage. The [panspermia hypothesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia) proposes that life may have spread from Earth to Mars, or vice versa.\nIf life does exist on Mars, it is likely to be small and simple, since the surface of Mars is barren, and no large multicellular life has been seen so far by any of the Mars rovers. The meteorite fragment [Allan Hills 84001](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allan_Hills_84001) was examined in 1996 and was reported to have structures resembling microscopic fossils of bacteria. Wikipedia notes, \"scientific consensus is that 'morphology alone cannot be used unambiguously as a tool for primitive life detection.' Interpretation of morphology is notoriously subjective, and its use alone has led to numerous errors of interpretation.\"\nWill we find life on Mars by 2050?\nThis question resolves positively in the event that prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If by 2050, this has not happened, the question resolves negatively.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.17, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.83, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:12.469Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 73, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will be the next \"Great Power\" war?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4441/when-will-be-the-next-great-power-war/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [great power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_power) is a nation generally considered to have large amounts of military might and influence. While there is no established definition, for the purpose of this article, a great power is one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute) (see latest report [here](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2020-04/fs_2020_04_milex_0_0.pdf)). As of 2020, the great powers are therefore the United States, China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and South Korea. \nWhile great power wars have [declined greatly over time](https://ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace), some have argued that we should assign considerable probability to the prospect in the coming decades. In his post [Big War Remains Possible](http://www.overcomingbias.com/2019/07/big-war-remains-possible.html) Robin Hanson writes\nThe world is vast, eighty years is a long time, and the number of possible global social & diplomatic scenarios over such period is vast. So it seems crazy to base predictions on future war rates on inside view calculations from particular current stances, deals, or inclinations. The raw historical record, and its large long-term fluctuations, should weigh heavily on our minds.\nA great power is said to be \"at war\" with another great power, if any of the following are true:\n--- \nOne nation has formally declared war on another.\n--- \nOne nation is considered by the international community to be occupying territory claimed by the other AND there has has at least 250 casualties resulting from when the leaders of one nation ordered a strike on the other nation's military personnel.\n--- \nHigh quality media sources consistently describe the relationship between the two nations as \"at war.\"\nFor the purpose of this question, a great power is defined as one of the top 10 nations by military spending according to the most recent report released by the [Stockholm International Peace Research Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stockholm_International_Peace_Research_Institute).\nThe date of a great power war is determined by the first date any of the above become true. When will be the next war between the great powers?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:17.736Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:14.119Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { @@ -40418,74 +40655,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.32, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6799999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:19.773Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 580, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:21.687Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 13, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:23.469Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the People's Republic of China have ever annexed at least half of Taiwan by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-annexation-of-most-of-taiwan-by-2050/", @@ -40503,9 +40672,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:27.310Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:15.783Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 216, + "numforecasts": 217, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-09T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -40517,19 +40686,68 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3474/when-will-queen-elizabeth-ii-cease-to-be-queen-of-the-united-kingdom/", + "title": "Will a member of the Trump family be the Republican nominee for the US Presidency in 2024?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4127/will-a-member-of-the-trump-family-be-the-republican-nominee-for-the-us-presidency-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Queen Elizabeth II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_II), 93, is the longest-reigning British monarch in history, having been Queen since 6 February 1952. On 6 February 2017 she became the first British monarch to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee, commemorating 65 years on the throne.\nAt the time of writing this question, Elizabeth II has been Queen for 67 years and 337 days. She is currently considered to be the [sixth longest-reigning sovereign monarch with a verifiable reign of all time.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_longest-reigning_monarchs)\nThis question asks: When will Queen Elizabeth II cease to be Queen of the United Kingdom?\nThe question shall resolve as the date on which Elizabeth II dies, abdicates, is deposed, or on the date that the monarchy of the United Kingdom is dissolved, or if there is no longer a United Nations member state known as the United Kingdom.\nNote that while Elizabeth II is also the reigning monarch in a number of other states and territories and various crown possessions, her position in relation to those bodies is immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:29.238Z", + "description": "Donald John Trump is the 45th and current president of the United States. Before entering politics, he was a businessman and television personality. Trump won a surprise victory in the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and sought re-election in the [2020 presidential election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election)\nThe [Trump family](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Family_of_Donald_Trump) has a net worth reported to be in the single-digit billions, and is now one of the most prominent families in Republican politics. Trump has several adult children, and there is speculation that a Trump political dynasty may emerge in the coming years, with both [Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump suggested as possible contenders for the presidency.](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/04/donald-trump-jr-ivanka-trump-2024-presidential-election-poll)\nThis question asks: In the United States presidential election of 2024, will a member of the Trump family become the official nominee of the Republican Party for the office of President of the United States?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Members of the Trump family' shall be taken to include only the following individuals:\n--- \nDonald Trump\n--- \nDonald Trump Jr.\n--- \nEric Trump\n--- \nIvanka Trump\n--- \nTiffany Trump\n--- \nMelania Trump\n--- \nBarron Trump\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.32, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6799999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:17.066Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 340, + "numforecasts": 580, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-13T08:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-05-09T10:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2029-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-07-31T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6931/aus-public-sector-wpi--change-for-q1-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Per the [Australian Bureau of Statistics](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release), the Wage Price Index (WPI),\nmeasures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee characteristics.\nThe WPI is a key measure of the Australian labour market. It is \"[the major measure of inflationary pressure on wages and salaries](https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Wage+Price+Indexes+FAQs).\" The seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change in WPI also serves as a critical point of discussion in forecasts of the post-COVID Australian economic recovery.\nThanks to the Australian Government's [Public Sector Workplace Relations Policy](https://www.apsc.gov.au/public-sector-workplace-relations-policy-2020), the relationship between public and private sector WPI is also legally important: for a large portion of government employees, annual adjustments to remuneration are capped in line with the private sector WPI change.\nThe ABS has reported the WPI statistic quarterly since 1997. A full table of quarterly WPI data is [available for download](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia/latest-release#data-download).\nWhat will be the percentage change of Australia's seasonally-adjusted Public Sector WPI for Q1 2021?\nAn unofficial Google Sheet (mirroring the relevant data) is available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O), with the specific series to which this question refers contained in [column O](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Lqd-xxJU166_UH8Ds1beaswkxdNsx09YJrILeMJz5Qg/edit#gid=0&range=O:O).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question resolves according to the relevant [Australian Bureau of Statistics report for Q1 2021](https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/economy/price-indexes-and-inflation/wage-price-index-australia). The relevant series ID for this question is 'A83895332K'.\nIf data is not provided by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, recorded as a seasonally-adjusted quarter-to-quarter percentage change, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted in order for resolution.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:18.238Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 13, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-03-31T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-05-18T14:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "When will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5790/date-of-mainly-elected-house-of-lords/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[The House of Lords is the upper house of the Parliament of the United Kingdom.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords)\nUnlike the elected House of Commons, members of the House of Lords (excluding 90 hereditary peers elected among themselves and 2 peers who are ex officio members) are appointed. The membership of the House of Lords is drawn from the peerage and is made up of Lords Spiritual and Lords Temporal. The Lords Spiritual are 26 archbishops and bishops in the established Church of England. Of the Lords Temporal, the majority are life peers who are appointed by the monarch on the advice of the Prime Minister, or on the advice of the House of Lords Appointments Commission. However, they also include some hereditary peers including four dukes.\n[There have been various attempts at reform.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords) Some recent attempts have been (partially) successful. The Blair government [reduced the number of hereditary peers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Act_1999). The Cameron government [made it possible for peers to resign or retire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/House_of_Lords_Reform_Act_2014).\nBut more ambitious attempts at reform have failed, with a [2012 Bill aiming at making the Lords mostly elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_of_the_House_of_Lords#House_of_Lords_Reform_Bill_2012) failing due to Conservative backbench opposition.\n[Polls suggest that around 45% of the public think that the Lords should be mostly elected.](https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/how-should-the-house-of-lords-be-made-up-of)\nWhen will most members of the House of Lords be directly democratically elected?\nThis question resolves when more than half of the members of the House of Lords were directly democratically elected in an election of the general public. That is, an election in which most adults in the population are eligible to vote.\nSo this question should not resolve if (say) the majority of members of the Lords are elected by members of the Commons, or by a jury of members of the public, or any other small group of people - even if that group of people is democratically elected.\nIf the House of Lords is abolished and has no obvious successor, this question resolves ambiguously. If it does have an obvious successor, this question refers to that successor. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:19.423Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -40541,7 +40759,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[A 2019 article has argued](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y) that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited animals used in meat production is \"not fit for purpose\". Under the current system, the employment any technology that utilizes recombinant DNA (rDNA) in food animal breeding programs automatically triggers regulatory oversight that has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. The article argues that delaying or preventing the use of this technology in animal breeding programs is associated with very opportunity costs in terms of foregone genetic improvement.\nIt is not just the presence of a transgenic rDNA construct (i.e. an organism with a segment of DNA containing a gene sequence that has been isolated from another organism) that triggers mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release, but rather it is the presence of any “intentionally altered genomic DNA” in an animal that initiates oversight. \nThis system is [considered unreasonable by some geneticists](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y.pdf) as there is nothing inherently dangerous about consuming dietary DNA. In fact, we already consume millions of naturally-occurring DNA variations.\nThe [2016 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine](https://www.nap.edu/catalog/23395/genetically-engineered-crops-experiences-and-prospects) agrees, and recommends a “product not process” regulatory trigger approach, where considerations about the product, and not the process that created the product is the sole relevant consideration for deciding for or against the need for premarket regulatory approval. Moreover, the [USDA](https://www.usda.gov/) already regulates genetically modified plants in this way.[[1](https://www.cornucopia.org/2018/04/companies-that-modify-livestock-genes-want-to-be-regulated-by-the-friendlier-usda-instead-of-the-fda/)]\nWhen will a single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques such as CRISPR-Cas9, cease to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat productions?\nResolution\nThis resolves when single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited animals used in meat production. Positive resolution does not require there to be no need for regulatory approval of GE animals, but simply that the method of rDNA techniques do not result in the default triggering of a regulatory oversight process. Positive resolution is consistent with there being various sorts of triggers for regulatory oversight stemming from other concerns (e.g. human food safety; environmental safety; target animal safety; effectiveness, amongst other factors) but positive resolution requires that using rDNA techniques does not by default raise concerns that trigger the need for for regulatory oversight.\nImportant note: If this question does not resolve positively before the end of 2032, it resolves as \">Dec 31, 2032\".\nOne way the question resolves positively if the current FDA's guidance document [#187 Regulation of Intentionally Altered Genomic DNA in Animals](https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents/cvm-gfi-187-regulation-intentionally-altered-genomic-dna-animals), which is currently in draft form, is scrapped, or is revised or replaced by another guidance document (in draft or final form) that specifies that the application of rDNA techniques to genetically alter animals used in meat production do not, by default, trigger a regulatory oversight process.\nThe question is resolved by consulting credible the reporting by the FDA, USDA, other regulatory body, or a researcher, research organisation or commercial enterprise familiar with the relevant regulatory matters and deemed credible by an admin.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:31.200Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:21.202Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 101, "resolution_data": { @@ -40560,7 +40778,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The admit rate of elite universities has been steadily declining over the last few decades in America. Harvard is one of the most selective universities in the United States. Its class of 2023 had [an admit rate](https://college.harvard.edu/admissions/admissions-statistics) of 4.6%, compared to 9.3% for [the class of 2010](https://www.ivycoach.com/2010-ivy-league-admissions-statistics/). Will this trend continue?\nThe admit rate is defined as the percentage of people who apply to the undergraduate program at Harvard and are admitted. Official statistics from Harvard determine the rate, if they are released. If those statistics are not released for the class of 2029 by January 1st 2026 then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:33.061Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:22.918Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 219, "resolution_data": { @@ -40590,7 +40808,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:35.031Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:24.245Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 403, "resolution_data": { @@ -40609,7 +40827,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.\n[CarbonCure](https://www.carboncure.com/) sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.\nIf CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.\nIf none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:36.757Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:25.426Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -40622,32 +40840,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will alien technosignatures be detected for the first time?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5858/when-will-alien-technosignatures-be-detected/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Technosignatures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technosignature) are any measurable property or effect that provide scientific evidence of past or present technology, and are key to [the search for extraterrestrial intelligence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Search_for_extraterrestrial_intelligence)\nTechnosignatures include (but are not limited to) evidence of electromagnetic transmissions of information, artificial heat and light, astroengineering projects (Dyson spheres and swarms, Matrioshka brains, stellar engines etc), asteroid or other space mining projects, and spacecraft.\nWhen will technosignatures of non-human origin be detected for the first time?\nBy 'non-human origin,' this question refers to technosignatures that are not the result of human activity, or of the activity of any technology or 'lifeform' created by humans, including any artificial intelligence system or biological organism.\nThis question resolves as the date on which a competent and credible authority on astronomy and/or space exploration (such as NASA, ESA, ROSCOSMOS, CNSA, JAXA, SETI or similar) announces that, on the balance of probabilities (i.e. more than 50% likely), technosignatures of non-human origin have been discovered. This announcement qualifies for positive resolution only if it is still maintained after a year waiting period following the initial detection, unless the space agencies of the US, Russia, China and Europe all agree that the finding is genuine. Evidence of biosignatures alone will not be directly relevant to the resolution of this question.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:38.700Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-23T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "9999-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6013/elden-ring-release/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elden_Ring):\nElden Ring began development in early 2017 following the release of The Ringed City, a piece of downloadable content for Dark Souls III. As with Miyazaki's Souls games, Elden Ring will have the ability for players to create their own custom characters instead of playing as a fixed protagonist. Miyazaki also considered Elden Ring to be a more \"natural evolution\" to the Souls series, as the game will be much larger in scale compared to them, featuring an open world with new gameplay mechanics such as horseback riding and combat. However, unlike many other open world games, Elden Ring will not feature populated towns with non-player characters, with the world having numerous dungeon-like ruins in place of them instead. When asked about the possibility of the story being novelized, Miyazaki stated that he would rather have players experience it themselves by playing the game, as he thinks that the game's secrets and mysteries would be spoiled otherwise. The score is being written by Yuka Kitamura, who has composed for many of Miyazaki's previous games.\nAs of the creation of this question (December 2020), no gameplay footage for Elden Ring has been released.\nWhen will FromSoftware release Elden Ring?\nThis will resolve to the date on which Elden Ring is first released for sale to the public in any region. Any release of an alpha, beta, and/or 0.X version of the game does not count. \nIf Elden Ring is not released before 2025-12-30, then this question resolves as \">2025-12-30\". \nIn case the game is released under a different name the question resolves only if the game is essentially that which the relevant gamers recognise to be what \"Elden Ring\" previously referred to, according to moderators and/or admins.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:41.504Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:26.636Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -40666,7 +40865,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "If Labour wins the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the government formed is not either solely Labour or a coalition with Labour making up a majority of seats.\nResolution will be by the numbers published by the [World Prison Brief](https://www.prisonstudies.org/country/united-kingdom-england-wales). As of the time of writing, the World Prison Brief records UK numbers for even-numbered years; round the year down if 5 years after the election falls on an odd-numbered year.\nSee also: [If Conservatives win the next UK general election, what will the England & Wales prison population rate per 100,000 people be 5 years later?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4645)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:43.564Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:27.876Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -40685,7 +40884,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Russia scored 5.02/10 (hybrid regime) in the first edition of the Democracy Index published in 2006 by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). However, the rating has quickly deteriorated and it is scoring 3.31/10 (authoritarian regime) in the 2020 edition of the index.\nWhen will The Economist rank Russia as a Democracy in its Democracy Index?\nThis question will resolve when the Democracy Index rates Russia as 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) in at least one report.\nThe resolution date is the date the report is published.\nThe question applies to Russia as well as to a successor state if it is widely internationally recognized as such.\nIf Russia or its successor state do not attain the score of 6.01/10 or higher at any point before 2080, the question resolves at the upper bound. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:45.615Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:29.079Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { @@ -40715,7 +40914,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:47.693Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:30.267Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { @@ -40734,7 +40933,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, only [five companies](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) in the world have a market capitalization valuation of more than USD 1 trillion. Four of them (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet) are based in the United States. One of them is a Saudi Arabian oil company, Saudi Aramco. \nThe list of companies with the highest market valuation is dominated by companies based in the USA and China. \nOnly 3 European companies have a market valuation of more than $300 B. These are food producer Nestlé, healthcare company Roche, and luxury goods conglomerate LVMH. The most valuable tech company SAP has a valuation only above $150 B.\nWhen there will be the first European trillion-dollar company?\nThis question will resolve positively on the day when credible media sources report that the first publicly traded European company has reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion. Value will be calculated by multiplying the total number of a company's outstanding shares by the current market price of one share.\nAs a European company counts any company with headquarters in Europe. Europe is defined as being a member of the Schengen Area or the European Union. The share price will be taken from any European stock exchange where the company is listed and actively traded.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:49.387Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:31.618Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -40753,7 +40952,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "SpaceX has been recently testing the Starship, a rocket intended to be a [\"fully reusable transportation system designed to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars and beyond\"](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/). Recently, on March 3rd, they tested SN10, a prototype of the second stage of the Starship system. SN10 performed a landing that SpaceX characterized as successful, but there were some issues with the flight and landing that resulted in a \"rapid unscheduled disassembly\" [several minutes later](https://youtu.be/KNLdDvt6wS0).\nSpaceX has another rocket system, [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/), which regularly experiences successful landing and reuse of the first stage.\nWhen will be the first successful launch of a Starship second stage that has been flown once before?\n---The question will resolve positively when a Starship second stage that had previously been flown before to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers flies a second time to an altitude of at least 5 kilometers. \n---The Starship second stage does not need to fly alone, if the Super Heavy booster is used in conjunction with the Starship second stage it would still count. However, the Starship second stage must fire its engines and travel upwards under its own power (firing engines to land would not count) at some point in both flights to resolve positively. \n---The Starship second stage must have the same serial number as a previous flight or be reported by SpaceX or at least 5 major media outlets as being a second stage that had previously been flown to resolve positively. The date will be based on local time at the launch location. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:51.335Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:33.132Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -40772,7 +40971,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump) was already famous before becoming president, being the owner of [The Trump Organization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization) and the [Miss Universe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe) brand, and host of [The Apprentice](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Apprentice_American_TV_series), and since being elected in 2016 has become significantly more well-known.\nOne proxy for how prominent Trump is in the public eye is Google Trends search interest. Search interest in Donald Trump started rising in June 2015 when Trump [announced his candidacy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_2016_presidential_campaign), spiked in November 2016 due to [the election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election), and has been at about a quarter of that level during his presidency.\nWhat will Google Trends search interest for Donald Trump be in July 2024, as a percentage of in November 2016?\nResolution is by the Google Trends interest over time figure for the topic [Donald Trump, 45th U.S. President](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&geo=US&q=%2Fm%2F0cqt90) for September 2024, as displayed on the google trends site on October 1st 2024, as a percentage of the value in November 2016. If search interest is marked as <1 for that month, resolve at 0.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:53.386Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:34.344Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -40785,6 +40984,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6432/us-q2-2021-gdp-growth-rate/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Q4 saw a 4% growth rate and Metaculus estimates that the [Q1 growth rate for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5997/us-q1-2021-gdp-growth-rate/) will be 4.67.\nWhat will the US Q2 2021 GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q3 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:35.940Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 55, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-20T22:20:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:20:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Stripe be the largest public offering worldwide in 2021 by valuation?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6688/stripe-as-largest-public-offering-in-2021/", @@ -40802,7 +41020,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:55.268Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:37.237Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 70, "resolution_data": { @@ -40815,32 +41033,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "[Short-fuse] When will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5237/hello-internet-podcast-release-schedule/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Hello Internet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hello_Internet) is a podcast by [CGP Grey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CGP_Grey) and [Brady Haran](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brady_Haran) which is well known by fans for uploading podcasts on somewhat of an irregular timetable. That is, the podcast isn't uploaded once a month or once a week, rather it is uploaded quite randomly. See especially [this website](http://www.nerdstats.net/hellointernet) which tracks the length of time between episode release dates.\nThe last episode of the podcast was released on the 28th of february this year, and since then [Brady has given an update](https://old.reddit.com/r/HelloInternet/comments/iob6lz/the_most_recent_update_we_ve_got/) in which he says the the show is on a break.\nWhen will the next episode of Hello Internet be released?\nThe question resolves as the date when the next episode of Hello Internet is released (that is, the first episode after HI #136 - feb. 28, 2020). Question resolves positively if an episode of any length is released.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:56.949Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 80, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-09-16T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-11T14:40:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-11T14:41:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will Tesla's market capitalization be on 1 January 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4798/what-will-teslas-market-capitalization-be-on-1-january-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In early 2020, US automaker [Tesla, Inc.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla,_Inc.) became America's most valuable automobile manufacturer, and [saw its market capitalization eclipse that of GM and Ford combined](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-tesla/teslas-market-value-zooms-past-that-of-gm-and-ford-combined-idUSKBN1Z72MU), climbing to over $89 billion by January 9 2020.\nTesla's stock price continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2020, despite CEO Musk tweeting on May 1 [\"Tesla stock price is too high imo.\"](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1256239815256797184)\nAs of July 12 2020, Tesla's stock is valued at $1,545 per share, and its market capitalization is $286.33 billion - [making Tesla more valuable than Ford, GM, BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen combined](https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1281679937410404352), and [making Elon Musk richer than Warren Buffett.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-10/elon-musk-rockets-past-warren-buffett-on-billionaires-ranking?sref=DOTC0U32&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: On January 1 2030, what will Tesla's market capitalization be in billions of nominal US dollars?\nThis question will resolve as Tesla's market capitalization as of 00:00 UTC on January 1 2030. If Tesla is no longer a publicly traded company at that time, this question will resolve ambiguously. If Tesla is acquired or merges with a public company that is at least 2x larger by market cap, this question immediately resolves as ambiguous. Otherwise, all acquisitions and mergers cause the resulting company to be considered Tesla for the purposes of this question (even if it is called something else). If Tesla spins off or sells parts of itself, the admins will decide which part will inherit the Tesla identity or possibly resolve ambiguous; other things being equal, the larger part, or the part that is still called \"Tesla\" (rather than \"Grohmann Automation\" or \"Tesla Energy\", say), should inherit the Tesla identity.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:13:59.151Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:38.802Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { @@ -40859,7 +41058,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2021, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:00.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:40.006Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 229, "resolution_data": { @@ -40889,7 +41088,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:04.290Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:41.175Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -40902,13 +41101,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6919/cost-of-hurricanes-in-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Hurricanes cost the US $38.6B 2020, the 8th costliest year since recording began 1980. The costliest year on record was 2017, when the US lost $278.3B due to hurricanes.\nHow many billions of dollars will hurricanes in 2021 cost the US?\nThis question will resolve as the sum of the costs of all hurricanes in 2021 calculated from the [NOAA](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/events/US/1980-2020) website's CPI-adjusted figure. Read about their [methodology](https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/billions/).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:42.364Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 50, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-10T20:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5943/us-excess-covid-19-deaths/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Assessing [excess mortality](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) is a standard technique for determining the mortality effect of a disease outbreak that does not rely on accurate reporting of cases of disease. It involves estimating the number of deaths that would have occured using historical trends, then comparing that to the number of deaths observed.\nResearch has shown that in the case of COVID-19, [many cases are undetected](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7275155/), which can result in an undercount of COVID derived mortality.\nAs of December 12th, 2020, [the CDC estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm) 352,650 excess deaths during the period of Mar 8th-Dec 12th.\nHow many excess deaths will the United States experience during COVID-19 (March 8th 2020 through December 31st 2021)?\nThis question resolves based on the excess deaths reported by the CDC for the period of March 8th 2020 to December 31st, 2021 on or before February 28th, 2022.\nThe value will be determined by downloading the CSV file provided on [this site from the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm). The value is calculated by summing the values in the \"Observed Number\" column and substracting the values in the \"Average Expected Count\" column for the weeks labeled 3/14/2020 through the date closest to 12/31/2021.\nIf this table is no longer being maintained in its exact form, then any comparable data source from the CDC will be used. If no such source is available from the CDC, then a comparable source from another reputable source will be used. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:06.454Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:43.580Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { @@ -40927,7 +41145,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Astra](https://astra.com/welcome/), a startup in the aerospace industry, recently announced its plans to go public via a merger with the SPAC Holicity on February 3, 2021. Holicity’s CEO [commented](https://astra.com/investors/) on the merger announcement that “Astra’s space platform will further improve our communications, help us protect our planet, and unleash entrepreneurs to launch a new generation of services to enhance our lives.” \nFounded in 2016, the company aims to expand the realm of space innovation and exploration in the low Earth orbit through [frequent launches](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/23/what-to-know-about-astra-the-rocket-builder-going-public-via-a-spac.html) of their newly designed and tested rockets. Their goals, however, depend heavily upon their ability to economize and scale the production of rockets - something the company has planned for by [welcoming Benjamin Lyons to the team](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/). Lyons, who spent more than two decades at Apple and spearheaded projects ranging from the development of the iPhone to Apple’s autonomously driving cars, plans to take Astra from the “iPhone 1” to the “iPhone X” over the next several years as the company grows.\nOnce public, Astra will strive to [provide daily access](https://astra.com/investors/) to low Earth orbit from anywhere on the planet through both rockets and eventually satellites. Ultimately the company also [hopes to provide](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/17/astra-hires-longtime-apple-veteran-benjamin-lyon-as-chief-engineer/) other newly minted space technology companies with all the necessary equipment to handle the space components of their businesses. \nThe [IPO date](https://astra.com/investors/) is expected in the second quarter of 2021, and will trade on NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ASTR.\nWhat will be the market capitalization for Astra Space (ASTR) two weeks after going public?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nPredictions should reflect the market capitalization (in billions) of the company at the end of its tenth business day of trading. \nResolution will be sourced from any reliable financial news source such as yahoo.finance or Nasdaq itself.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:08.570Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:44.828Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { @@ -40940,36 +41158,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6051/will-andrew-yang-be-the-next-mayor-of-nyc/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In December 2020, Andrew Yang filed paperwork to run for mayor of New York and now appears on the candidates list with the New York City Finance Board: [https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/cand…](https://www.nyccfb.info/follow-the-money/candidates/) \nIn a poll released 21 December 2020, Yang led the race as the top contender: [https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew…](https://dfer.org/ny/erna-ny-poll-shows-andrew-yang-leading-in-nyc-mayoral-race/)\nWill Andrew Yang win the 2021 New York City mayoral election?\nCredible open-source media reporting. In the case of an extremely close or disputed election, use the official results at the Board of Elections in the City of New York https://vote.nyc/page/election-results-summary\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.48, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.52, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:10.786Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 600, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-11-02T16:22:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-11-03T16:23:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5253/iran-gets-nuke-by-2030/", @@ -40987,7 +41175,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:13.286Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:46.135Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 289, "resolution_data": { @@ -41000,13 +41188,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6444/australian-federal-election-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Australia is a parliamentary constitutional monarchy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Government); its bicameral legislature, the [Federal Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliament_of_Australia), holds a general election at least once every three years.\nThere is some constitutional flexibility on the exact election date, however:\n---[The House of Representatives 'expires' after three years, but can be dissolved at any time](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s28.html), with the latest possible date of the next election being within 68 days from the (three year) expiry of the House. \n---Senators from Australian States are elected with six year terms, with half of the seats expiring every three years. [According to Section 13 of the Constitution](http://www6.austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdoc/au/legis/cth/consol_act/coaca430/s13.html), elections for these retiring Senators must be held \"within one year before the places are to become vacant.\" \nWhile not constitutionally required, the half-Senate elections are customarily held at the same time as House of Representatives elections. (The [Australian Parliament House Library website](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection) provides a longer discussion of these rules and customs.)\nThe combination of rules means that a general election for Australian Federal Parliament will almost certainly be held between [Saturday 7 August 2021 and Saturday 21 May 2022](https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1920/NextElection).\nWill an Australian Federal Election be held in 2021?\nThis question resolves positively iff an election is held for the Australian House of Representatives in 2021. This election need not also include the Australian Senate, nor will an election for only the Senate qualify. If the [Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) website](https://www.aec.gov.au/) gives an announcement for the date of the next election, the question will close retroactively to the day before the announcement.\nNote that the Australian federal parliament is composed of two houses: the House of Representatives and the Senate . There is no constitutional requirement that elections for the two houses be held simultaneously, but they are customarily held together. (The last time a half-Senate only election was held was in 1970.) This question resolves according to the House of Representatives election only. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.38, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.62, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:47.380Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 131, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-03T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-29T14:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-03T15:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [International Math Olympiad](https://www.imo-official.org/) is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extrordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions. Problems are graded by judges on a 0 - 7 point scale for correct proofs, skill demonstrated, and partial results. Gold Medals are awarded for total scores of 31 or more (an average per-question score greater than 5). In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\nThe [IMO Grand Challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) is a proposed AI challenge to develop an AI which can win a gold medal in the Olympiad. The rules have been tentatively described as follows:\nTo remove ambiguity about the scoring rules, we propose the formal-to-formal (F2F) variant of the IMO: the AI receives a formal representation of the problem (in the Lean Theorem Prover), and is required to emit a formal (i.e. machine-checkable) proof. We are working on a proposal for encoding IMO problems in Lean and will seek broad consensus on the protocol.\nOther proposed rules:\nCredit. Each proof certificate that the AI produces must be checkable by the Lean kernel in 10 minutes (which is approximately the amount of time it takes a human judge to judge a human’s solution). Unlike human competitors, the AI has no opportunity for partial credit.\nResources. The AI has only as much time as a human competitor (4.5 hours for each set of 3 problems), but there are no other limits on the computational resources it may use during that time.\nReproducibility. The AI must be open-source, released publicly before the first day of the IMO, and be easily reproduceable. The AI cannot query the Internet.\nThere is no official commitment from the IMO or other AI development teams to compete for this challenge, but it's possible this may happen eventually.\nWhen will an AI win a Gold Medal in the International Math Olympiad?\nThis question resolves on the date an AI system competes well enough on an IMO test to earn the equivalent of a gold medal. The IMO test must be most current IMO test at the time the feat is completed (previous years do not qualify).\nTentatively, we will hold the same terms as currently proposed by the IMO Grand Challenge:\n--- \nThe AIs must recieve formal representations of the IMO problems and present formal (machine-checkable) proofs.\n--- \nThe proof certificates produced must be checkable in 10 minutes. \n--- \nThe AI has 4.5 hours per set of 3 problems to compute, but there are no other limitations on computational resources.\n--- \nThe AI must be open-source, publicly released before the IMO begins, and be easily reproducable.\n--- \nThe AI cannot have access to the internet during the test.\nIf the IMO Grand Challenge eventually uses different constraints than those above, or the IMO test format changes, Metaculus Admins may modify this question at their discretion or resolve ambiguously, if they choose so.\nIf the IMO no longer holds open Olympiads, and there is no comparable successor for under-18 Mathematic competitions, this question will resolve ambiguously. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:15.301Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:48.511Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { @@ -41036,7 +41254,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:17.266Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:50.096Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { @@ -41066,7 +41284,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:19.079Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:51.326Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -41079,6 +41297,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:52.963Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 72, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Longbets series: By 2025 will the scientific evidence of a large bi-pedal great ape be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3647/longbets-series-by-2025-will-the-scientific-evidence-of-a-large-bi-pedal-great-ape-be-sufficient-to-convince-at-least-50-of-primatologists-that-a-yetibigfoot-like-creature-exists/", @@ -41096,7 +41333,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:20.844Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:54.164Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { @@ -41109,32 +41346,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will Australia have no coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4472/when-will-australia-have-no-coal-fired-power-plants-in-its-national-electricity-market/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Australia currently has 16 coal-fired power plants in its National Electricity Market (the NEM). The NEM is the country's largest electricity grid, covering six of eight states/territories, including the three most populous. There are also four coal-fired power plants in Western Australia, not part of the NEM. \nAbout [two thirds](https://opennem.org.au/energy/nem) of electricity in the NEM currently comes from coal-fired power plants. \nDates of note\n--- \nFor climate change reasons, some environmentalists say [Australia should stop burning coal by 2030](https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6505509/australia-must-exit-coal-by-2030-report/?cs=14231).\n--- \nThe coal-fired power plant with the latest scheduled closure is Loy Yang A, in 2048. \n--- \nThe newest coal-fired power plant, Kogan Creek, was built in 2007. An operating life of 50 years would put its closure at 2057 (although plants can be extended beyond a 50-year life). \n--- \nThis year, the federal government [funded a feasibility study for a new coal-fired power plant](https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-09/labor-critical-of-government-coal-record-while-sitting-on-fence/11947812).\n--- \nThe [openCEM model](http://www.opencem.org.au/) of the NEM has some coal in 2050 in its base case, although in other scenarios coal exits the market. Brown coal in Victoria is particularly tenacious, however. \nResolution\nThe question resolves positively if either of the following:\n--- \nNo coal-fired power plant is connected to the NEM for period of at least two weeks\n--- \nCoal provides less than 1% of NEM electricity generation over any 12 month period\nIn case NEM ceases to exist, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:22.791Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 70, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-01T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-11-29T13:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-12-30T13:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6645/highest-us-core-cpi-growth-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The core CPI index is a price-level index that excludes goods with high price volatility, such as food and energy. This measure of core inflation systematically excludes food and energy prices because, historically, they have been highly volatile.\nMatt Yglesias, the blogger and journalist who currently writes at [Slow Boring](https://www.slowboring.com/), [predicted on December 28th](https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions) that annualised core US CPI growth will not exceed 2% in any month of 2021 (70% confident), and that it won’t exceed 3% in any month (90% confident).\nWhat will the highest level of annualised core US CPI growth be, in 2021, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data?\nThis question resolves as the maximum annualised core US CPI growth of any month in 2021 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The data can be found using FRED’s ‘Edit grap’ feature, and selecting Compounded Annual Rate of Change, on Monthly Frequency. Relevant data may further be [found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QhXPurJMqRb9GTQOHk5MAx-FymzqrLTp0BeC4XziKQI/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:24.641Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:55.630Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -41153,7 +41371,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The border between the United States and the [Schengen Area](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Schengen_Area) (which comprises 22 of the 27 member states of the European Union, plus 4 non-EU European countries) was [closed by the US government](https://www.nafsa.org/regulatory-information/covid-19-restrictions-us-visas-and-entry) on March 13 2020.\nOn January 18 2021, President Trump signed a new order that would've terminated all restrictions on travelers from the Schengen Area, effective January 26 2021. However, incoming President Biden amended this decision, stating that restrictions \"shall remain in effect until terminated by the President\".\nWhen will the US-EU border reopen?\nResolution date will be the first day when people who were physically present within the Schengen Area during the 14-day period preceding their entry or attempted entry into the US are subject to no special restrictions that were not already in place before the start of the pandemic, with the exception of requiring a negative COVID-19 test prior to boarding (PCR, antigen, or similar). In particular, a date when only people who have been vaccinated against COVID-19 are allowed to enter the US will not qualify for positive resolution.\nResolution will be based on announcement by the US government or credible media reports.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:26.679Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:56.801Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -41172,7 +41390,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAccording to the Federal Reserve, the [number of manufacturing jobs](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) remained stable around 17 million from approximately 1965 to 2000. However, beginning with the recession in 2001, and moving throughout the decade until the Great Recession in 2008, the number of manufacturing jobs fell to under 12 million in total. By March 2020, the number of people employed in manufacturing reached 12.8 million. But with the onset of the global pandemic, employment fell by 1.4 million jobs in just one month. As of December 2020, employment levels showed small improvements, but still remain over 500,000 jobs below pre-COVID-19 numbers. \nIf labor continues to remain [cheaper overseas](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/how-much-does-it-cost-to-manufacture-overseas-versus-at-home), the number of jobs available in US manufacturing could continue to lower, potentially never reaching original pre-Great Recession levels. \nSince the middle class typically provided a large portion of the [workforce for this industry](https://www.oecd.org/unitedstates/us-manufacturing-decline-and-the-rise-of-new-production-innovation-paradigms.htm#:~:text=Between%202000%20and%202010%2C%20US,just%2012.3%20million%20in%202016), and as we see these jobs disappear from the US, we could find the gap between high and low income groups growing much faster.\nHow many people will be employed in the US manufacturing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution value will come from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using their [chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANEMP) on all manufacturing employees in the US.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:28.512Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:57.952Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -41185,6 +41403,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6979/starship-survives-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "SpaceX has had four flights where prototypes of their Starship vehicle have gone above 10 km, each time resulting in a Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly- on landing for SN8 and SN9, 8 minutes after landing in the case of SN10, and SN11 in midair.\nWhen will a SpaceX Starship be intact 24 hours after flying?\nThis question resolves to the time that an upper stage vehicle made by SpaceX, representative of a vehicle that SpaceX officials expect to bring humans to Mars, flies to a height of at least 10 km, and remains continuously intact for at least 24 hours after making contact with the Earth after flight. If the ship experiences an RUD or has more than 15% of the mass of its main body no longer connected to the main body within 24 hours of landing, that flight will not trigger resolution.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:19:59.076Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 41, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T02:07:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-30T06:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-07-01T06:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will at least 5 Republican Congresspeople join another party before 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6447/republican-party-split-in-2022/", @@ -41202,7 +41439,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:30.458Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:01.084Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { @@ -41232,7 +41469,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:32.253Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:03.105Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -41251,7 +41488,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Description inspired by [Jgalt's](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/)]\n[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600. Bitcoin prices reached a new apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Then, prices fell to a local minimum of circa $4,500 per coin, in December 2019.\nIn December 2020 Bitcoin has reached a new all time high, with its price breaking the $24,000 mark.\nWhen will 1 bitcoin be worth $1,000,000 USD (adjusted to 2020 USD) or more?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $1,000,000 USD adjusted to mean 2020 prices at any time before 1 January 2100.\nInflation adjustments are to be made with common US CPI, such as FRED's [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:34.323Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:04.394Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 219, "resolution_data": { @@ -41270,7 +41507,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Artificial general intelligence is a hypothetical machine system that has the capacity to learn and perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can.\nJudging by [existing](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) [questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) on the topic, artificial general intelligence is unlikely to arrive soon, and we will therefore receive little direct feedback on our ability to forecast questions related to its development. \nOne thing we can do to to achieve tighter feedback loops is to make forecasts about future forecasts. These future forecasts will integrate evidence that is currently inaccessible. Forecasts about forecasts inclines us to explicitly think about how our evidence about when we will have artificial general intelligence will likely evolve over time. \nWhat will be the median of the Metaculus prediction for the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/), on July 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the median of the Metaculus prediction on the question [when will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be developed and demonstrated](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) as of July 1st 2022, at 12PM EST.\n[The relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) has the following resolution criteria:\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:36.170Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:06.211Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -41300,7 +41537,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:38.359Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:07.420Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -41313,15 +41550,34 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:08.684Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 30, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the US unemployment rate fall to 4% or lower for the first time since the COVID-19 crisis of 2020?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4017/when-will-the-us-unemployment-rate-fall-to-4-or-lower-for-the-first-time-since-the-covid-19-crisis-of-2020/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In February 2020, the [US unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate) fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, the lowest level in more than 50 years. However, due to the ongoing [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic) and associated shutdowns of economic activity, in March 2020 the US unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 3.5%, and it is widely expected that the unemployment rate will continue to rise substantially in 2020, likely dramatically so. \nThis question asks: When will the US unemployment rate next fall to 4% or lower?\nResolution should cite the official US unemployment rate from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly [Employment Situation report.](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:40.247Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:10.080Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 251, + "numforecasts": 253, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -41349,7 +41605,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:42.249Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:11.677Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -41362,32 +41618,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6947/first-super-heavy-flight/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "SpaceX is currently rapidly developing their Starship launch system, including the Starship upper stage, and the Super Heavy Booster that will launch the Starship into orbit. Starship is designed to bring humans to Mars and ensure a long-standing human colony there. Super Heavy BN1 is probably days away from starting its test campaign at the time of writing, and BN2 is expected to be the first Super Heavy to fly.\nWhen will a SpaceX Super Heavy Booster fly?\nA Super Heavy is considered to be any vehicle made by SpaceX that is a) BN1 or BN2, b) capable of a similar launch capacity to BN1 and BN2 or greater or c) can launch a Starship to orbit. The booster must reach a height of at least 10 km intact to trigger resolution. A flight with or without the upper stage are both valid for resolution.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:45.619Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 29, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-07-20T08:48:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-20T08:49:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the longest verified human lifespan on record on January 1 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1628/what-will-be-the-longest-verified-human-lifespan-on-record-on-january-1-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 2018, the record for longest verified human lifespan is held by Jeanne Louise Calment of Arles, France. She lived from 21 February 1875 to 4 August 1997, for a term of 122 years, 164 days.\nShe has held the record for longest confirmed human lifespan since 12 May 1990, was the first human ever to have been confirmed to have lived to the age of 116 years, and is the only human confirmed to have ever lived beyond 120 years. Calment reportedly remained mentally intact until the end of her life, and the New York Times reported that she had been in good health, though almost blind and deaf, as recently as a month before her death. She died of unspecified causes. \nThe oldest verified person currently alive, as of 8 December 2018, is Kane Tanaka of Japan. She was born on 2 January 1903 and at time of question writing is 115 years, 338 days old. If she is still alive on January 1 2050, she will be 146 years, 11 months, 30 days old. \nHere are the lists of oldest [verified people ever](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people), and [the oldest currently living](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_oldest_living_people) people.\nAs of January 1 2050, what will be the longest verified human lifespan on record, in years?\nTo avoid ambiguity in the event that someone is unconscious (perhaps for a long time) before their death, this question shall focus on age at legal death. If a person is declared legally dead by competent authorities, their age at the time their legal death takes effect shall be considered their age at death, even in the event that their physical body may still exist and certain biological functions may be maintained by extraordinary means. In case a person successfully emerges from cryopreservation between now and 2050, all time spent legally dead before and during cryopreservation shall be deducted from their lifespan.\nI have selected a maximum age possibility of 200, substantially above the maximum possible if Ms Tanaka lives to 2050, to account for the possibility that there are substantially older persons currently alive but unknown to gerontologists, or people with unverified claims whose claims subsequently become verified.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:47.447Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:13.268Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 193, "resolution_data": { @@ -41406,7 +41643,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500_Index),\nThe S&P 500, or simply the S&P, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices. The average annual total return and compound annual growth rate of the index, including dividends, since inception in 1926 has been approximately 9.8%, or 6% after inflation; however, there were several years where the index declined over 30%. The index has posted annual increases 70% of the time. However, the index has only made new highs on 5% of trading days, meaning that on 95% of trading days, the index has closed below its all-time high.\nHistorical total returns for the S&P 500 can be found [here](https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500/returns).\nWhat will be the 10 year compound annual growth rate for the S&P 500 in the 2020s?\nThis question will resolve as the 10 year [compound annual growth rate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_annual_growth_rate) of total returns (not adjusted for inflation, and including dividends) for the S&P 500 over the ten years 2020-2029 in percentage points, rounded to the second digit.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:49.580Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:14.466Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 79, "resolution_data": { @@ -41425,7 +41662,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "During the Great Recession, several companies went bankrupt. These included General Motors, CIT Group and Lehman Brothers, many of which were bailed out, restructured, or acquired.\nThe question asks: Out of the 25 largest U.S companies by revenue, how many will file for bankruptcy over the next four years?\nFor the purposes of this question, [the 2019 Fortune 500 list](https://fortune.com/fortune500/2019/search/) will be used. The next four years will be defined as the interval between 00:00 UTC 15 March 2020 and 00:00 UTC 15 March 2024.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:51.440Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:15.734Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { @@ -41444,9 +41681,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The two-dose adenovirus-vectored vaccine Ad26.COV2.S, which encodes the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2, is currently undergoing [Phase III testing](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948) with the support of Johnson & Johnson. This randomized double-blind Phase III trial, known as ENSEMBLE 2, is enrolling up to [30,000 adult participants in multiple countries](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948). The two doses are administered 56 days apart.\nJohnson & Johnson has already announced [interim efficacy results of the one-dose phase III ENSEMBLE trial of the same Ad26.COV2.S vaccine](https://www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-authorized-by-u-s-fda-for-emergency-usefirst-single-shot-vaccine-in-fight-against-global-pandemic), finding an overall vaccine efficacy against laboratory-confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19 of [66.1%](https://www.fda.gov/media/146217/download) across all geographic areas studied and as of at least 28 days after vaccination.\nWhat will be the vaccine efficacy of the two-dose Johnson & Johnson Ad26.COV2.S vaccine candidate according to the results of Phase III testing?\nIn this study, as in the previous one-dose study, confirmed cases of COVID-19 are defined as [molecularly confirmed moderate to severe/critical COVID-19](https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04614948), with cases only being considered as part of the efficacy analysis as of 14 days after the second dose. The overall vaccine efficacy figure for all geographic areas will be considered for resolution.\nThis question will close retroactively to the date when the interim results are released. However, it will not resolve on the basis of that efficacy data — rather, it will resolve on the basis of the final phase III efficacy data in a published peer-reviewed article.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:53.359Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:17.116Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 50, + "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -41474,7 +41711,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:55.496Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:18.516Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 282, "resolution_data": { @@ -41504,7 +41741,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:14:58.191Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:20.426Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 570, "resolution_data": { @@ -41523,7 +41760,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:00.039Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:21.817Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -41536,66 +41773,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6729/4th-covid-wave-in-us/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph [from FT](https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-03-15&values=cases), another [from NYT](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html), another [from CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\nWill the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?\nWe define a \"4th wave\" as satisfying both of these conditions:\n1--7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more. \n2--the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k. \nAccording to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as \"4th waves\":\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater \nThe following examples would not:\n---trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k \n---trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k \n---trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k \nResolves (retroactively if needed) to \"yes\" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to [the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases).\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:01.782Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-15T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-06-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "The end of the EU as we know it by 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/375/the-end-of-the-eu-as-we-know-it/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).\nSome commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union. We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.\nWill there the European Union effective cease to exist during the next ten years? \nThis question resolves as positive if, by the end of 2026, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.\nIt also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:04.132Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 887, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2016-11-15T19:46:57Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2027-01-31T23:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Serena Williams win another Tennis Grand Slam?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6889/serena-williams-wins-grand-slam/", @@ -41613,9 +41790,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:06.034Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:22.984Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 16, + "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-07T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -41643,7 +41820,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:08.278Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:24.161Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 206, "resolution_data": { @@ -41662,7 +41839,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [World Health Organization data](https://covid19.who.int/explorer), there have been 667.9 thousand total cases of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation. Russia now has the third highest number of infections in the world, after the United States and Brazil. The [7-day total of new infections](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru) in Russia peaked on the 7 days up to May 12, at 76,873, and is now at 46,869.\nWhen will the 7-day total of new cases in Russia drop below 1000?\nThis question resolves positive when the [WHO Russian Federation situation page](https://covid19.who.int/region/euro/country/ru), or the latest WHO [situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports), indicates that there have been <1000 confirmed cases in Russia in the last 7 days (i.e. 143 per day). If WHO situation reports are not available, admins may choose another international data source, or resolve ambiguous, based on their best judgment. This question resolves retroactively 2 weeks before said date.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:10.121Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:25.488Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 248, "resolution_data": { @@ -41675,25 +41852,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:12.124Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 24, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Australian Census of 2021 show at least 50% not religious?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6838/australia-majority-not-religious/", @@ -41711,7 +41869,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:13.971Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:26.929Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { @@ -41730,7 +41888,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on Jan 14, 2022?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on January 14th, 2022, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to Q2 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:16.073Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:28.960Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { @@ -41743,13 +41901,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6878/eia-petroleum-stock-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6406/eia-petroleum-stock-march-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6407/eia-petroleum-stock-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for May 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously. This will include the reporting dates for 7-May, 14-May, 21-May, 28-May.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:30.155Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 26, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-22T22:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-28T22:55:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6779/date-administered-dosescapita-05-in-nl/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of the 2nd of March 2021 roughly 1M of have been vaccinated in The Netherlands according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations). With a population of ~17.3M, this means that 5.9 vaccine doses have been administered per 100 people. This is substantially less than the US (23.23/100) and the UK (31.82/100).\nWhen will the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceed 50 in The Netherlands?\nThis question resolves when the cumulative number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people exceeds 50.00, according to [OurWorldInData](https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:17.927Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:31.508Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 55, "resolution_data": { @@ -41768,7 +41945,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "World military expenditure in 2019 was US$1917 billion, a 3.6% increase on the previous year.\nThis is based on statistics [published](https://sipri.org/databases/milex) annually by the Stockholm International Peace Research Initiative (SIPRI).\nThe figures are based on government data where possible, otherwise on SIPRI estimates. Countries are excluded when there is insufficient data to make an estimate.\nAnswers will be interpreted as billions of US dollars.\nWhat will be the total world military expenditure in 2021 (in billions USD), as reported by SIPRI?\nResolution will be based on the SIPRI figure for the world total (including Iraq), in 2020 dollars. This is typically published in late April on the [SIPRI website](https://sipri.org). If the 2020 report is not reported in 2020 dollars, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:19.635Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:32.705Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { @@ -41787,9 +41964,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) are collectively widely known as the five big tech companies in the S&P 500, otherwise known as [“FAAMG”](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/faamg-stocks.asp). They currently make up about 23% of the overall S&P 500.\nWhat will the the market cap of MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, FB, AMZN on 31 December 2021 as a percentage of the total S&P500?\nThis will resolve on the basis of the market cap of the “FAAMG” tech stocks — Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook as a percentage of the total S&P 500 on 31 December 2021. Their individual market caps will be added up after the close in the day in question and divided by the overall S&P 500 market value.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:23.203Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:34.078Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 260, + "numforecasts": 262, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -41806,7 +41983,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[reddit.com/r/sneerclub](http://reddit.com/r/sneerclub) is a Reddit community devoted to criticizing members of the [rationalist community](https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Rationalist_movement), and adjacent communities.\n[https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub](https://subredditstats.com/r/sneerclub) tracks their subscriber count over time.\nHow many subscribers will /r/sneerclub have on January 1st 2022?\nThis question resolves as the number of subscribers on /r/sneerclub on January 1st, 2022.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:25.117Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:35.351Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -41819,134 +41996,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6910/will-the-us-senate-change-the-filibuster/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The United State Senate features a parliamentary procedure known as the [filibuster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filibuster_in_the_United_States_Senate), which requires a three-fifths threshold to invoke cloture and vote.\nThe rules have been changed several times, including the adoption of a two-track system in the 1960's and altering the rule to exclude judicial and executive branch nominees from the three-fifths threshold in 2013 and 2017.\nWill the 117th United States Senate change the filibuster rules during its session?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States Senate adopts a rule during the 117th Congress to either abolish or alter the filibuster.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.43, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5700000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:26.932Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-04-02T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-02-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-01-03T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "When will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6201/25-of-the-us-vaccinated-against-covid-when/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Covid-19 vaccination rollout in the United States has been much [slower than anticipated](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html), with fewer than 7 million people having received a shot by Jan. 7, 2021, far short of the goal of 20 million by the end of December 2020.\nHowever, new attempts are being made in streamlining the vaccination process. This may speed up the rate that shots are delivered, or it may do very little. So:\nWhen will 25% of the US population be vaccinated against Covid-19?\nResolves positive when 82.5 million people in the US have completed their course of vaccination (so, after both shots for multi-shot treatments) for a vaccine with efficacy >70%. Resolution via credible media reports.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:29.359Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 291, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-14T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T16:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-07-07T16:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.42, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5800000000000001, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:31.167Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 156, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.45, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.55, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:33.024Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 145, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:34.969Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 101, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the impact of the Effective Altruism movement be picked up by Google Trends in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1591/will-the-impact-of-the-effective-altruism-movement-be-picked-up-by-google-trends-in-2030/", @@ -41964,9 +42013,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:36.925Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:36.790Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-26T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -41977,6 +42026,55 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6381/us-rejoins-iran-deal-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Comprehensive_Plan_of_Action) (JCPOA, also known informally as the Iran Nuclear Deal) is an international agreement between the United States, Iran, and multiple other nations, focused primarily on reducing Iran's capacity to enrich uranium (necessary to create nuclear weapons), in exchange for the United States and other nations lifting sanctions on Iran. In 2018-05-08, the Trump Administration [officially withdrew](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/08/world/middleeast/trump-iran-nuclear-deal.html) from the deal and re-imposed sanctions on Iran. Iran responded to this by building more centrifuges and enriching uranium greater than the limits allowed under the JCPOA.\nOn 2020-09-13, President-Elect Biden [stated](https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html) that if \"Iran returns to strict compliance with the nuclear deal, the United States would rejoin the agreement as a starting point for follow-on negotiations.\" Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif [similarly stated](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/18/iran-urges-joe-biden-to-lift-sanctions-rejoin-nuclear-deal) that the United States could rejoin the agreement \"automatically and with no need to set conditions [if] the United States carries out its duties under Security Council Resolution 2231.\"\nWill the US rejoin the Iran Nuclear Deal before 2022?\nThis question resolves positively if the United States lifts or waives sanctions previously mandated by the JCPOA, before 2022-01-01, 00:00 UTC. The order must go into effect before 2022-01-01, a conditional announcement or promise does not suffice. The question will resolve regardless of whether Iran agrees to any terms or reduces its nuclear production capacity. Credible media reports or an official statment will suffice as a source.\nIf the US and Iran negotiate a new deal related to sanctions or nuclear production capacity, this question will resolve positively if the sanctions lifted by the US are greater or equal to those mandated under the original JCPOA. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.42, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5800000000000001, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:38.333Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 157, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-01T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-07T05:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6563/sota-on-pascal-context-on-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Semantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be on 2023-02-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%), amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:39.819Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 101, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-16T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-02-13T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Elon Musk have double the wealth of the second richest person by the end of 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6190/will-musk-double-second-richest-by-dec-3122/", @@ -41994,9 +42092,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:38.766Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:40.967Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42013,7 +42111,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:40.680Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:42.183Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -42026,13 +42124,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.71, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:43.596Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1188, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6121/uk-index-of-economic-freedom-score-2025/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Index of Economic Freedom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Index_of_Economic_Freedom) is an annual index and ranking created in 1995 by conservative, pro-market think-tank The Heritage Foundation and the The Wall Street Journal to measure the degree of economic freedom in the world's nations. The creators of the index claim to take an approach inspired by Adam Smith's in The Wealth of Nations, that \"basic institutions that protect the liberty of individuals to pursue their own economic interests result in greater prosperity for the larger society\". \nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom was ranked 7th in the world](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/unitedkingdom?version=241), with an overall score of 79.3.\nIn 2020, [the United Kingdom left the European Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit). Some observers have suggested that the UK should seek to profit from Brexit by becoming a more economically free country after leaving the EU; this concept is sometimes known as [Singapore-on-Thames.](https://capx.co/the-case-for-a-singapore-on-thames-brexit/) Singapore itself [scored 89.4 in the 2020 issue of the index](https://www.heritage.org/index/country/singapore?version=247), ranking first in the world.\nWhat will the UK's Index of Economic Freedom score be for 2025?\nThis question resolves as the overall score of the United Kingdom in the Index of Economic Freedom report for the year 2025.\nIf there is no sovereign state known as the United Kingdom in 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. This question also resolves ambiguously if the index or its 'overall score' are discontinued before 2025, or changed so substantially that Metaculus administrators consider that it would be inappropriate to continue with this question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:42.637Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:44.780Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 56, "resolution_data": { @@ -42062,7 +42190,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:44.389Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:45.932Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 16, "resolution_data": { @@ -42075,43 +42203,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3820/bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \nThis question asks: Will one bitcoin be worth at least $100,000 USD before January 1 2025?\nResolution should cite credible press reports in the financial media, or information from a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform, that one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before 1 January 2025.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:46.683Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1186, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-03-12T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "How long would humanity take to rebound from a global catastrophe?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4511/how-long-would-humanity-take-to-rebound-from-a-global-catastrophe/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For reasons why there might ever be fewer than 100M humans, see the [Metaculus Ragnarok series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok). An important question is, if most people die, whether humanity will recover, and how long it would take.\nQuestion: If there ever were fewer than 100M humans, how many years would it take for there to be more than 1B humans?\nResolution details:\n---Only humans in the observable universe count. \n---\"Humans\" are creatures who at least one 2020 Metaculus user would judge are humans if they magically met them. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:48.716Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:47.280Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { @@ -42124,45 +42222,15 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:51.295Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 2891, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "When will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6711/fifth-starship-flight/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "So far, SpaceX has done three test flights to heights greater than 10 km with prototypes of their Starship system, with the third flight resulting in the first successful landing, albeit with the prototype exploding shortly after landing due to damage sustained. SpaceX continues the development of the Starship vehicles.\nWhen will the fifth SpaceX Starship flight be?\nThis question resolves to the time of the fifth Starship flight, with the December SN8 flight considered to be the first. A \"flight\" is defined as a testflight that reaches an altitude of at least 1 km intact by firing its engines, and a Starship is defined as a SpaceX vehicle meeting the following criteria:\n---Not an existing member of the Falcon family (Falcon 9/Heavy) or a Falcon derivative \n---Intended to be fully reusable, with every stage returned to Earth (smaller portions such as fairings may be expended) \n---The vehicle must have a stated payload to LEO of at least 20,000 kg (of pure payload, e.g. the Space Shuttle Orbiter would not count as payload mass). This is very conservative, so Starship would qualify even if it were greatly scaled down from today. \n---The vehicle should be representative of a vehicle intended to carry a payload to Mars at some point, according to public statements of SpaceX or its representatives. \nThis is a continuation of a series of questions that previously asked about the [second](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6339/date-of-second-starship-flight/) and [third](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6340/when-will-the-third-starship-flight-be/) Starship flights.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:53.409Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:48.533Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 247, + "numforecasts": 252, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42173,15 +42241,45 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will it turn out that Covid-19 originated inside a research lab in Hubei?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3681/will-it-turn-out-that-covid-19-originated-inside-a-research-lab-in-hubei/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The origins of the Covid-19 disease-causing coronavirus are rather obscure, and Chinese authorities have held information about the disease in tight control. This has led to some speculation of various types of coverups. One of the most provocative is the idea that it did not have a natural origin. There's a lengthy writeup of the idea [here](https://harvardtothebighouse.com/2020/01/31/logistical-and-technical-analysis-of-the-origins-of-the-wuhan-coronavirus-2019-ncov/).\nThe proposition in question will be taken as: \nThe the origin of the Covid-19 coronavirus infection involved the release of a pathogen from a research laboratory in Hubei province.\nThat's not terribly precise, by design. But this question is a bit experimental, one of a series of [\"self-resolving\" ones.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4031/self-resolving-question-method-discussion/) Resolution to this question will be determined as follows:\n--- \nIf at any time after the date of May 1, 2020 the community prediction is > 97% or < 3%, the question closes. Then, with 90% probability (as called by a quantum RNG), resolves positively or negatively, respectively. (With 10% probability the question is referred to the below committee.)\n--- \nOtherwise, on or about the close/resolve date of May 1, 2021, the question will be decided by unanimous vote of a council of three people as to whether the proposition listed above is true, at 50+% credence (i.e. more true than its negation), resolving ambiguous in the case of disagreement. The council of three will be chosen by quantum mechanical random numbers from a list of 12 people that will be composed by the author around the time of 2020-05-01, and held secretly until the time of question resolution.\n(Edited 2020-04-15 to include 10% probability to being kicked to committee.)\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.16, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.84, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:50.703Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 2915, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-02-24T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-01T07:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will Bitcoin's hash rate be in November 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6524/btc-hash-rate-november-2022/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Bitcoin's network relies on the process of blockchain mining, which involves finding blocks on the network through performing computations that result in the addition of transaction records to Bitcoin's public ledger of past transactions. The network's hash rate is the total of the speed at which all mining machines operate. As of writing this question, Bitcoin's network hash rate is around 165M tera hashes per second.\nWhat will Bitcoin's network hash rate per second be (in Millions of tera hashes per second) as per the performance rates posted by [blockchain.com](https://www.blockchain.com/en/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years) on 17 November 2022?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:56.419Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:51.851Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42198,9 +42296,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This US is currently experiencing its [third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-states?country=~USA), infecting individuals at a rate higher than that seen in either previous wave. While vaccines are currently being [rolled out at an increasing rate](https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEHpFx-7p1eOTt6cw8LQpAGoqGQgEKhAIACoHCAow4uzwCjCF3bsCMIrOrwM?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en), the threat of the [novel B.117 variant](https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-42-sars-cov-2-variant/) with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\n[According to the CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends), there has only been two days since April 1st when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 500 (July 5th and July 6th).\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 500 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\nIf no such date occurs on or before December 28, 2021, this question resolves as >December 28, 2021.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:15:58.536Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:53.067Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 217, + "numforecasts": 219, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42211,36 +42309,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:00.364Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the US unemployment rate stay above 5% through November 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6296/us-unemployment-above-5-through-nov-2021/", @@ -42258,9 +42326,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:02.176Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:54.258Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 288, + "numforecasts": 289, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-16T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42271,13 +42339,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6659/us-house-punishes-member-by-2022-09-03/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Related question: [Will the United States Senate vote to expel a Senator before January 3, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6434/draining-the-senate-2021-2023/)\nThe United States House of Representatives (\"House\") can [expel, censure, or reprimand](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Discipline/Expulsion-Censure-Reprimand/) any of its own members if Members vote to do so.\nTensions have been high in the House in 2021. One Member is [suing](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-swalwell-idUSKBN2AX1JP) others. One Member [lost her Committee privileges](https://www.rollcall.com/2021/02/04/marjorie-taylor-greene-does-not-renounce-past-comments-as-house-moves-to-punish-her/). Others have been [censured](https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-capitol-siege-censures-rawlins-wyoming-3d2a5ad3377bb748c22f632642ba23f1) by political organizations outside of Congress. [Ethics complaints](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/535443-ethics-complaint-filed-against-biggs-gosar-and-cawthorn-over-capitol-riot) have been drawn up by citizens' groups.\nDemocrats hold a slim majority in the House but [the Ethics Committee, which may act on complaints before the House does, is evenly divided](https://ethics.house.gov/about/committee-members).\nWill the United States House of Representatives expel, censure, and/or reprimand a House Member before September 3, 2022?\nThe question resolves to Yes if an expulsion, a censure, or a reprimand is meted out by House-wide vote. It may resolve early (to yes) in the admins' discretion, even before the scheduled Close Date.\nThe question resolves negatively if no member of the House has been expelled (by supermajority vote), or censured or reprimanded (by majority vote).\nThe question resolves to ambiguous if discipline of a Member by vote of other Members becomes impossible. A constitutional amendment empowering outsiders to discipline a Member would cause the question to resolve ambiguous; an alteration of the House's internal disciplinary procedure would not.\n[Online sources](https://ethics.house.gov/reports/committee-reports) are sufficient to resolve the question. Capitol Hill periodicals such as [The Hill](http://thehill.com) or [Roll Call](http://rollcall.com) are also credible sources.\n\"House Member\" means any properly-certified resident of a State who has taken the House oath. The person in question may take the oath after the Closing Date.\nResolution is unaffected by subsequent events (e.g. annulment of the discipline), by court rulings undermining the disciplinary action, and by lesser discipline (reduction of privileges, ejection from a meeting, etc.).\nNote: A vote to remove a Member following an \"Election Contest\" will not resolve this question, because a vote to exclude is not a vote to expel. In the event of confusion, a House Resolution (or Committee Report) is the best source for determining the intended purpose of a House vote. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.5, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:55.670Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 67, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-26T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-09-07T03:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-09-04T03:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6068/us-federal-budget-for-environment-in-2024/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nMetaculus predicts that we will cross the [2 degree Celsius threshold](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1596/what-year-will-the-2c-climate-threshold-be-crossed/) for climate change by 2043. After the US’s [separation from the Paris Agreement](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/03/930312701/u-s-officially-leaving-paris-climate-agreement) this year in 2020, the federal government allocated [0.8% of their total budget](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function) to protecting the environment and our natural resources, at a total value of only $77 million dollars. In 2017, while the US still remained in the Paris Agreement, the budget represented 1% of the total, still an extremely small value in comparison to federal spending on a number of other significant issues. \nHow much will the US federal government spend on protecting the environment in 2024 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:03.918Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:56.894Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -42296,7 +42394,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stunning is the process of rendering animals immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food to eliminate pain, discomfort and stress from the procedure [(FAO, 2001)](http://www.fao.org/3/x6909e/x6909e09.htm).\nIn the EU, [Council Regulation 1099/2009](https://eur-lex.europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:L:2009:303:0001:0030:EN:PDF) requires that all animals to be killed for human consumption must be stunned before they are slaughtered, meaning that they should be unconscious when they are killed to avoid suffering. There are, however, some exceptions to this rule, founded on the cultural traditions or religious rites of a number of sectors of the populations [(EU, 2019)](https://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/practice/slaughter_en).\nYet, while includes specific requirements for the slaughter of terrestrial species farmed for food, fish are excluded from much of the recommendations (European Union, 2009) due to differences in physiology and slaughter context, and less developed understanding of the stunning process for fish.\nSimilarly, in the U.S., the [Humane Slaughter Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humane_Slaughter_Act) requires animals should be stunned into unconsciousness prior to their slaughter but this excludes poultry, fish, rabbits. \nAdvocacy groups have suggested using stunning techniques. In 2009, the Animal Health and Welfare panel (EFSA) recommended the “urgent development of commercial stunning methods to induce immediate (or rapid) unconsciousness in… seabream” ([EFSA, 2009](http://edepot.wur.nl/7878), p. 2).\nThe [Humane Slaughter Association (2018)](https://www.hsa.org.uk/downloads/hsafishslaughterreportfeb2018.pdf) points out that further development of humane stunning techniques is required for a greater range of species of finfish than current techniques currently permit, to suit their various rearing environments and to minimise handling and movement prior to death which can cause stress and chemical and physical deterioration in product quality.\nAccording to an appropriately named expert on fish stunning, van de Vis, [currently 3 to 4% of farmed fish stunned globally](https://veterinaryrecord.bmj.com/content/185/3/70).\nWhat percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide will be estimated to be stunned prior to slaughter, in the first year in which credible estimates are published in the five year period starting in 2027?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of fish produced in aquaculture worldwide estimated to be stunned in the first calendar year between 2027 and 2032 (inclusive) for which both credible estimates of the number of fish stunned worldwide in aquacultural production are available, and credible estimates for the total number of fish produced by aquacultural production are available.\nFor the purpose of this question, credible estimates, should be those in research deemed sufficiently rigorous and reliable for an admin to judge that there is ≥90% chance for the true number to be within 25% of the median of the estimate. \nStunning here refers to any method method that renders the fish immobile or unconscious, with or without killing the animal, when or immediately prior to slaughtering them for food, such as by percussive or electrical stunning. Live chilling, or asphyxiation in any manner (e.g., air, CO2) are not qualifying stunning procedures.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible. \nIn case there are at least three objections from predictors to the admin's preferred resolution, the admin should consult one or more researchers with at least one publication related to national or global fish production, or fish stunning, who shall arbitrate the dispute.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:05.720Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:58.048Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { @@ -42309,25 +42407,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:07.713Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 283, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Insurrection Act be invoked before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6352/insurrection-act-invoked-before-2025/", @@ -42345,7 +42424,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:09.750Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:20:59.193Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -42358,13 +42437,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6257/first-day-with-no-uk-covid-19-deaths/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of mid January 2021, more than a thousand people are dying in the UK with COVID-19 every day.\nWhen will there be a day on which no one in the UK dies with COVID-19?\nThis question resolves on the first day for which [the UK government's dashboard](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death) reports there were no deaths of people who had had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days of the first positive test.\nThis should resolve according to [the \"by date of death\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death), not [the \"by date reported\" panel](https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_reported), although the latter is the figure usually reported by the media.\nNote that resolution should only occur when data is acknowledged as complete (currently this takes five days), but the question should resolve retroactively to the first date of zero deaths (e.g. five days earlier).\nIf still open, the question should close retroactively one day prior to the date of zero deaths.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:00.459Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 288, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-21T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T12:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6629/global-energy-consumption-in-2100/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Global direct primary energy consumption per year](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) is estimated to have increased from 12100 TWh in 1900 to 158800 TWh in 2019 - a thirteenfold increase over 119 years. However, in recent decades, the exponential growth in per capita energy use in wealthy countries that had continued since the beginning of the 19th century has flatlined, and energy use per capita is now in decline in many wealthy countries.\nWhat will global direct primary energy consumption be in 2100?\nThis question resolves to the global direct primary energy consumption per year figure [reported here](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-primary-energy) by Our World In Data for the year 2100 measured in terawatt-hours whenever it becomes available. If this source ceases to exist by the time the question is due to resolve, Metaculus moderators will determine another credible source which reports the same information and resolve the question accordingly.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:11.454Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:01.616Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { @@ -42394,9 +42492,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:13.156Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:02.808Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-06T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42413,7 +42511,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The movement to reduce wild-animal suffering is relatively new (see: [Timeline of wild-animal suffering](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_wild-animal_suffering)). It was previously the realm of charismatic individuals, with organizations working on the topic being started from 2013 onwards. A course at a top university would constitute a further step towards mainstream acceptance.\nWhen will the first course on wild animal welfare be taught at a top university?\nTo qualify as a \"top\", a university needs to be in the top-200 of [QS World University Rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/university-rankings) or in the top-200 of QS's rating for biological sciences at the time the course is taught.\nThis question will resolve as the date the course starts, and retroactively close on the date the course was announced.\nIf QS stops publishing any of the ratings, a clarification to this question will be made and another major university rating system will be chosen instead.\nIf the course is first announced, then delayed, then opens, the question retroactively closes on the date the delay was announced.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \nEdit 2020-01-03: added provision that resolve date = class starts and close date = class announced. Also fine-print about delays. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:15.262Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:04.037Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 107, "resolution_data": { @@ -42432,7 +42530,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2019 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2023-02-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted from Q3 2022 prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). \nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:16.973Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:05.172Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 74, "resolution_data": { @@ -42451,9 +42549,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[March 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6408/march-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\n[April 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6409/april-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls/)\nFor the month of May 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9cdf56fd-99e4-4026-aa99-2b6c0ca92811?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=03/01/2021-06/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/nonfarm-payrolls)\n[Financial Forecast Center](https://www.forecasts.org/jobs-growth-forecast.htm)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/nonfarm-payrolls-227)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of May, which will be released in early June. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:18.957Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:06.350Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 38, + "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42470,7 +42568,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the global stock market achieve? \nThe global stock market will be tracked using FTSE Global All Cap Index, or a similar index if FTSE no longer exists by 2031.\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Global inflation rates are to be taken from the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG), or another similarly credible source if World Bank data is not available.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:20.811Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:07.545Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 107, "resolution_data": { @@ -42489,7 +42587,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to January 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2030-01-01 according to ONET. Note that positive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation*\nFor example, if the average degree of automation ends at 61.2, this question resolves as 100 (as the value will have seen a 100% increase).\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2030-01-01 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:22.803Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:08.831Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -42519,7 +42617,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:24.825Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:10.036Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -42549,7 +42647,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:26.715Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:11.372Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { @@ -42579,9 +42677,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:28.542Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:12.626Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 240, + "numforecasts": 241, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42609,7 +42707,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:30.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:14.407Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 202, "resolution_data": { @@ -42628,7 +42726,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Boris Johnson became leader of the Conservative Party in July 2019. There has been speculation about when he might leave and who might replace him.\nWho will be the next leader of the UK Conservative Party?\nThe question will resolve:\n1--Rishi Sunak \n2--Michael Gove \n3--Jeremy Hunt \n4--Priti Patel \n5--None of the above \nThe question will close on the announcement of the next Conservative Party leadership election, and resolve on the basis of that result. If Johnson wins re-election, the question will re-open and continue.\nIf the Conservative part ceases to exist, or if the next Conservative part leader is chosen by a process other than a leadership election, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:32.401Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:15.885Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 164, "resolution_data": { @@ -42647,7 +42745,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2022-01-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:35.582Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:17.097Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 168, "resolution_data": { @@ -42677,7 +42775,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:37.421Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:18.365Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 884, "resolution_data": { @@ -42696,7 +42794,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "GPT stands for \"Generative Pre-Training\" and was introduced in [this paper](https://cdn.openai.com/research-covers/language-unsupervised/language_understanding_paper.pdf) from OpenAI in 2018. [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) became famous in 2019 within the machine learning community for producing surprisingly coherent written text samples. It used 1.5 billion parameters. \nIn May 2020, OpenAI released [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165), a 175 billion parameter model, widely regarded to have impressive language generation abilities. The massive increase in parameter count compared to GPT-2 is likely the result of a [previous investigation](https://arxiv.org/abs/2001.08361) from OpenAI which revealed the relationship between neural language model size and performance. Many are now interpreting OpenAI's strategy as one intended to scale neural models to their ultimate practical limit. Gwern [writes](https://www.gwern.net/newsletter/2020/05#gpt-3), \nThe scaling hypothesis that, once we find a scalable architecture like self-attention or convolutions, which like the brain can be applied fairly uniformly (eg “The Brain as a Universal Learning Machine” or Hawkins), we can simply train ever larger NNs and ever more sophisticated behavior will emerge naturally as the easiest way to optimize for all the tasks & data, looks increasingly plausible. [...]\nIn 2010, who would have predicted that over the next 10 years, deep learning would undergo a Cambrian explosion causing a mass extinction of alternative approaches throughout machine learning, that models would scale up to 175,000 million parameters, and that these enormous models would just spontaneously develop all these capabilities, aside from a few diehard connectionists written off as willfully-deluded old-school fanatics by the rest of the AI community.\nIf GPT-4 is released from OpenAI, how many parameters will it contain, in billions of parameters? Resolution is made via a report from OpenAI.\nIf OpenAI does not release GPT-4 by January 1st 2023, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case OpenAI does not explicitly refer to the relevant model as GPT-4, members of the community, community moderators or admin will do a strawpoll on the /r/openai subreddit and ask:\nIn your opinion, is it roughly correct to say that this model is the successor to GPT-3?\nAfter 1 week, the majority answer wins with a tie counting as \"yes\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:39.862Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:19.639Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 348, "resolution_data": { @@ -42715,7 +42813,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Throughout its existence, the People’s Republic of China has consistently been an undemocratic country. The Democracy Index, a yearly report that rates the state of democracy in 167 countries on a scale from 0-10 has rated China as “authoritarian” in all of its reports (with the most recent rating being a 2.26/10).\nWhen will China become a democracy?\nThis question will resolve when the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) (published by the Economist Intelligence Unit) rates China as a 6.01/10 or higher (the minimum score to be considered a democracy) for at least one year’s report. The Resolution date will be the date the report is published.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the People’s Republic of China, in its current form, ceases to exist before it is rated a democracy by the Democracy Index, or if The Economist's Democracy Index is no longer published.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:41.696Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:20.807Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -42734,7 +42832,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nMultimodal machine learning aims to build models that can process and relate information from multiple modalities (including linguistic, acoustic and visual signals). Multimodal machine learning enables a wide range of applications: from audio-visual speech recognition to image captioning [(Baltrusaitis et al., 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.09406.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on multi-modal learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of e-prints on multi-modal ML systems will be published on arXiv over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published over the 2021-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive) under Computer Science that contain the following keywords:\n\"Multimodal Machine Learning”, \"multimodal representation”, “multimodal representation learning\", “multimodal AI”, “multimodal artificial intelligence”, “multimodal feature learning”, “multimodal observations”, “Multimodal deep Learning”, “Multimodal reinforcement learning”, “multimodal fusion”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, Multi-modal Machine Learning”, “multi-modal representation learning”, “multi-modal AI”, “multi-modal artificial intelligence”, “multi-modal feature learning”, “multi-modal observations”, “Multi-modal deep Learning”, “Multi-modal reinforcement learning”, “multi-modal fusion”, “cross-modal learning”, “multi-modality learning”, “multimodality learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query may be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Multimodal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22multimodal+representation%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22multimodal+representation+learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22multimodal+AI%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22multimodal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22multimodal+feature+learning%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22multimodal+observations%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Multimodal+deep+Learning%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22Multimodal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22multimodal+fusion%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22Multi-modal+Machine+Learning%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22multi-modal+representation+learning%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22multi-modal+AI%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22multi-modal+artificial+intelligence%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22multi-modal+feature+learning%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22multi-modal+observations%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22Multi-modal+deep+Learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22Multi-modal+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22multi-modal+fusion%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22cross-modal+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22multi-modality+learning%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22multimodality+learning%22&terms-22-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=2019&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---45 for the calendar year 2017 \n---71 for the calendar year 2018 \n---91 for the calendar year 2019 \n---181 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:43.654Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:21.996Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -42747,6 +42845,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "BTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6648/btc-outperforms-vss-thru-2026/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In this question, we seek to estimate one of the factors of whether holding Bitcoin (BTC) has a higher expected value than holding a non-US small cap index fund(Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF VSS)\nThere is a companion question [BTC outperforms the U.S. total stock market?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6508/btc-outperforms-the-us-total-stock-market/) which looks at BTC performance vs a broad range US index. Historically US small cap index funds have [outperformed](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121715/5-best-us-smallcap-index-mutual-funds.asp) large cap index funds. This question varies from the companion in that it looks at a small cap index that specifically excludes US based companies.\nBTC outperforms VSS from 2021-03-01 until 2026?\nAfter calculating Bitcoin's returns from March 1st, 2021 until the the end of 2025, will Bitcoin's returns be better than holding the fund Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Small-Cap Index ETF symbol VSS? Note that returns include dividend payments, in addition to appreciation in value.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.45, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.55, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:23.348Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 145, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-22T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T21:30:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-02T21:30:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3629/will-the-national-popular-vote-interstate-compact-reach-majority-in-the-electoral-college-before-2030/", @@ -42764,7 +42892,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:46.035Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:24.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { @@ -42783,9 +42911,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Organ transplants have existed as a medical treatment for decades; however, transplant recipients must take a multitude of immunosuppressant drugs on a daily basis for the rest of their lives in order to avoid organ rejection. This dependence on drugs is of course a sad and significant inconvenience to the patients. A number of laboratories around the world are working to eliminate the necessity of them, and they have made progress by for example using bone marrow from the donor (which was shown to decrease the dose of drugs needed).\nWhen will it become possible to transplant organs without the recipient needing immunosuppressant drugs?\nThis question will resolve when the first organ transplant is successfully performed without the need for any immunosuppressants.\nFor this question, any transplant of the following organs shall count: skin, cornea, uterus, kidney, liver, lung, heart, pancreas, intestine, stomach, testis, penis, thymus.\nTransplants from twins or clones of the patient (which have occurred since 1954) are not included for this question. A genetically modified organ, grown in an animal or artificial environment shall be allowed.\nIn some instances, immunosuppressant drugs are not necessary (for instance, children under 12 months old). This question is meant to predict the discovery of a method which is >50% effective for >50% of the population (for any one or more organs). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:47.990Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:25.831Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 14, + "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-04-06T04:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42802,7 +42930,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Principality of Monaco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monaco) is a sovereign city-state, and microstate on the French Riviera in Western Europe. It is bordered by France to the north, east and west, and by the Mediterranean Sea to the south. The principality is home to 38,682 residents, of which 9,486 are Monegasque nationals, and is widely recognised for being one of the most expensive and wealthiest places in the world. [Over 30% of the resident population are millionaires, and high-end real estate prices reached €100,000 ($142,000) per square metre in 2018.](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20180206-the-country-running-out-of-space-for-its-millionaires)\nWith an area of 210 hectares (0.81 sq mi), it is one of the smallest sovereign states in Europe and the second-smallest in the world, after the Vatican City State. Its 19,009 inhabitants per square kilometre (49,230/sq mi) make it the most densely-populated sovereign state in the world.\nTo continue economic development and allow for population growth, [for years the country has been adding to its total land area by reclaiming land from the sea.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_reclamation_in_Monaco) The entire district of [Fontvieille](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fontvieille,_Monaco) was constructed on land reclaimed from the sea in the western part of Monaco in the 1970s, increasing the principality's surface area by approximately 20 percent. As of 2020, the [Le Portier](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le_Portier) land reclamation project is underway, and is expected to add approximately 15 acres (6 hectares) to Monaco's land area by 2025. This [graphic shows the extent of land reclamation in Monaco since 1861.](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c5/Monaco_depuis_since_1861.png)\nHow large will Monaco be in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the land area (in hectares) of Monaco as of 1 January 2035, according to the most recent estimate published as of that date.\nIf Monaco ceases to exist as a sovereign state before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:49.887Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:27.037Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -42821,7 +42949,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The cost of a first-class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January 2021.](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052)\nData of the price of first-class stamps are available [here](https://tamebay.com/2019/03/historic-royal-mail-stamp-prices-1971-2019.html).\nWhen will a first-class Royal Mail stamp cost at least £1?\nResolves on the first day it is not possible to buy a first-class stamp from Royal Mail for less than £1 per stamp.\nThe question will close retroactively just before the announcement of such a price increase.\nResolves ambiguously if Royal Mail stops existing and has no obvious successor.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:51.605Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:28.212Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -42851,7 +42979,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:53.431Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:29.891Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 192, "resolution_data": { @@ -42870,7 +42998,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [gross world product (GWP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product) is the combined gross national income of all the countries in the world. Because imports and exports balance exactly when considering the whole world, this also equals the total global gross domestic product (GDP).\nAs of 2019, GWP was $84.8 trillion in 2010 US$ (or $0.0848 quadrillion), according to [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD).\nWhen will Gross World Product exceed $1 quadrillion in 2010 USD?\nThis resolves when GWP exceeds 1.00 quadrillion USD, i.e. $ (in 2010 USD) according to the [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD). If that's not available, other credible data sources may be consulted.\nFor the purpose of this question, GWP refers to the value of humanity-generated output generated on Earth and elsewhere.\nTo pin down a specific day, we will logarithmically interpolate between the first day of the first year when GWP meets the threshold and the first day of the prior year (see the fine-print for the methodology).\nSpecifically, let the GWP at year be , and let be the first day of the last year with , and let be the first day of the first year with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:55.203Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:31.107Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -42883,25 +43011,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:56.952Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 33, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will India's GDP grow in all first three quarters of 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6316/india-gdp-growth-in-q1-q3-2021/", @@ -42919,9 +43028,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:16:58.791Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:32.447Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 47, + "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-18T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42932,6 +43041,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6396/total-us-private-equity-deals-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:33.585Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-26T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T20:55:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-08-31T19:58:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Alex Jones ever hold high Federal office in the United States before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1638/will-alex-jones-ever-hold-high-federal-office-in-the-united-states-before-2030/", @@ -42949,7 +43077,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:00.618Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:35.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 256, "resolution_data": { @@ -42979,9 +43107,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:02.553Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:38.878Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 231, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -42998,7 +43126,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Per the European Parliament, “Carbon neutrality means having a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere in carbon sinks. Removing carbon oxide from the atmosphere and then storing it is known as carbon sequestration. In order to achieve net zero emissions, all worldwide greenhouse gas emissions will have to be counterbalanced by carbon sequestration.”\nIn 2020 a number of countries made commitments to achieve carbon neutrality including the European Union, and China. As of late 2020, at least 25 countries have pledged carbon neutrality by 2050. On the other hand, only two countries have achieved carbon neutrality: the forest covered Bhutan and Suriname. Given the 30 year time-horizon, and the unclear path to carbon neutrality, it remains ambiguous how many countries will follow through on their carbon neutrality pledges.\nWhat percentage of countries which pledge carbon neutrality by 2050 will keep their pledge?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of countries which pledged carbon neutrality by 2050 that succeed in achieving neutrality. Only countries which pledge before 2025 will be counted.\nCountries will be included in the percentage calculation if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_neutrality#Countries_and_territories) Wikipedia table\nInclusion Criteria:\nCountries will be included in the pledge if and only if on January 1, 2026 the country is listed in this Wikipedia table with status including one of the phrases ‘Agreement’, ‘Policy position’, ‘Pledge’, ‘Law’, or a synonym of one of those and target date before 2051. If this table is removed or its structure is substantially changed, the criterion will be replaced by another list which agreed with the Wikipedia table immediately prior to the change. Non-country entities included in the Wikipedia list (e.g. the EU) will not count for this question.\nSuccess Criteria:\nCountries will be counted as succeeding in carbon neutrality if either of the following criteria is met before 2051:\n---The national government issues a statement declaring they have achieved carbon neutrality. This statement must claim to have fulfilled their original (i.e. pre-2026) commitment explicitly, and/or a later, stronger commitment. \n---At least three credible media sources announce that the country has achieved carbon neutrality. \nEither of these criteria suffice to count as carbon neutrality success, so if e.g. a country announces carbon neutrality, but foreign media challenges their claim, the country will still count as having achieved carbon neutrality for the purposes of this question.\nCarbon Neutrality Definition:\nThis question does not precisely define carbon neutrality, instead the Wikipedia list and criteria enumerated above will serve as functional definitions thereof. For instance, if country A is only carbon neutral after taking into account their purchase of foreign offsets, and country A declares carbon neutrality by including those offsets, then they will be considered as having achieved carbon neutrality. If however, country A chose not to count the purchase of foreign offsets towards the net carbon output, and so not announce carbon neutrality by 2050, then that country would count as having failed their goal.\nIf a country no longer exists as a nation state (for example because it has been annexed or split in two), it no longer counts in either the numerator or denominator for this question, that is, it is removed from both the list of pledges made and the list of pledges met/not met.\nIf a country changes in some significant way, for example splitting, or annexing another country, but it still has the same name and system of government, then it still counts as having made the original pledge. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:04.488Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:40.018Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -43028,7 +43156,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:07.969Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:41.365Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 195, "resolution_data": { @@ -43047,7 +43175,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A key question when evaluating bitcoin's prospects is whether it's 'ossified'; aka can we expect any significant changes to the protocol? There are arguments both for and against ossification, but these require us to assess the likelihood of changes to bitcoin.\nWe can measure improvements to bitcoin by the number of BIPs, bitcoin improvement protocols, adopted and merged into Bitcoin Core, the reference client for bitcoin.\nHow many BIPs will be be approved and merged into bitcoin core in 2021?\n--- \nThe [bips.md](https://github.com/bitcoin/bitcoin/blob/master/doc/bips.md) doc in the bitcoin source repo lists implemented BIPs. Should the Github repo not be available at the end of 2021 we'll use the current public source repo's list of BIPs.\n--- \nTo qualify the BIP must have been adopted and a PR merged; it does not have to have been activated on mainnet (applies to certain BIPs that require consensus).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:09.719Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:42.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { @@ -43077,9 +43205,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:11.505Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:43.681Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, + "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43096,9 +43224,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is based off the [excellent question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6472/cumulative-us-vaccinations-28-february/) by [juancambeiro](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/111848/). \nData sources:\n---[CDC Covid Tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) \n---[Vaccine Distribution \"Process\"](https://www.hhs.gov/coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/distribution/index.html) \n---[CDC Vaccine recommendations](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations-process.html) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of people who have received one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine in the U.S. on 2021-04-30?\nThis question will resolve as the cumulative number of people who receive one or more doses of a COVID-19 vaccine on 2021-04-30 as recorded by the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Data tracker in the column \"Number of People Receiving 1 or More Doses.\" The dashboard is updated daily by 8pm ET and will be accessed on 2021-04-30 at approximately 10:00pm ET.\nIn the event a single dose vaccine, such as the J&J vaccine is approved, and not included in tally for the column labeled \"Number of people receiving 1 or more doses\", the sum of two or more columns (to be chosen using moderator's reasonable disgression) may be used in order to determine the number of people who have been at least partly vaccinated. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:13.339Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:44.883Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 150, + "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-01T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43115,7 +43243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Mars Helicopter, known as Ingenuity](https://mars.nasa.gov/technology/helicopter/), has landed on Mars aboard the Perseverance rover. According to the [Ingenuity press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf) the helicopter will \"attempt up to five flight tests during its 30-sol experiment window\". The helicopter will deploy after a series of rover systems checks and once a suitable location has been found, which will be [at least a month after Perseverance has landed](https://www.inverse.com/science/theres-now-a-helicopter-on-mars).\nHow many successful test flights will the Mars Helicopter, Ingenuity, complete within 31 days of its first flight attempt?\nThe question will resolve based on the number of test flights reported by NASA to have been airborne longer than 10 seconds.\nThe preliminary test flight plan and goals for the test flights are available on page 21 of the [press kit](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/press_kits/mars_2020/download/ingenuity_landing_press_kit.pdf).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:15.283Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:46.065Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -43134,7 +43262,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Recent natural language processing (NLP) models have succeeded in generating human-level [text](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/) and [translations](https://www.aclweb.org/anthology/W19-6711.pdf). However questions remain regarding to what extent this success relies on understanding, as opposed to memorization of statistical patterns. \n[A recent paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1907.07355.pdf) showed that when statistical-cues are removed, state of the art NLP models fail on argument reasoning tasks -- despite human performance remaining unaffected. Untrained humans perform at ~80% accuracy on this argument reasoning task, whereas recent NLP models perform near 50%. \nWhen will a machine learning model out-perform the human-level of 80% accuracy on this benchmark? This question resolves when either: \n1--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on the Niven and Kao [benchmark](https://github.com/IKMLab/arct2). \n2--A paper posted on [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) claims a greater than 80% accuracy on a successor* dataset to the Niven and Kao data. \n*A successor dataset will count towards this resolution criterion if it satisfies all of the following:\n1-- \nPublished in an [arxiv.org](http://arxiv.org) pre-print intended to quantify argument and/or reasoning\n2-- \nCites Niven and Kao\n3-- \nPre-2020 NLP models show random-level performance on the dataset (<=60% accuracy for a binary task, <=100*(1/n+1/n/5)% for an n-ary task)\nIf the successor dataset includes information on human-level performance, that threshold will be used instead of the 80% accuracy threshold.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:17.194Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:47.278Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -43164,7 +43292,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:18.996Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:48.681Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -43194,7 +43322,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:20.799Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:50.116Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 316, "resolution_data": { @@ -43207,6 +43335,36 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will lepton universality be falsified before 2026?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6948/the-death-of-lepton-universality/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The [Standard Model of particle physics](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Standard_Model) is the most complete description of physical phenomena not involving gravity known to date. It accommodates all known fundamental particles and explains their interactions [in a compact way](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Mathematical_formulation_of_the_Standard_Model#/Lagrangian_formalism).\nOne of its features is lepton universality, which implies that the electron, the muon, and the tau particle couple with the same strength to the particles responsible for the electroweak force.\nA [recent paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2103.11769) from the LHCb collaboration studying the decay of mesons has found evidence against lepton universality at the level.\nAnomalies like this one [have happened before](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/750_GeV_diphoton_excess) in the LHC, so [it's not clear](https://resonaances.blogspot.com/2021/03/thoughts-on-rk.html) the result will survive new incoming data. The gold standard for discovery in particle physics is conventionally taken to be .\nWill lepton universality be falsified before 2026?\nThis question resolves positively if a peer reviewed paper is published before 2025/12/31 claiming to have found evidence at the level or greater that lepton universality is violated in nature.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.25, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.75, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:51.318Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 23, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-04-06T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-12-30T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-01-30T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Will scientists conclude that delaying SARS-CoV2 vaccines second dose did or would have saved lives?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6000/lives-saved-by-seconddosedelay-for-vaccine/", @@ -43224,7 +43382,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:23.042Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:52.527Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 160, "resolution_data": { @@ -43237,34 +43395,15 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:24.885Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 164, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5942/box-office-gross-in-the-us--canada-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Movie theaters have been [hard-hit](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/09/theater-chains-amc-and-cinemark-take-big-q3-losses-amid-covid-pandemic.html) by COVID-19 public health protocols and public hesitancy. As of 10 December, the total box office gross for the U.S. and Canada in 2020 thus far is $2,035,211,644 as compared to $11,320,845,445 in 2019.\nWhat will be the total box office gross in the U.S. & Canada in 2021?\nThe “total gross” for 2021 on the [“Domestic Yearly Box Office”](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/?ref_=bo_nb_we_secondarytab) page of Box Office Mojo will be consulted for resolution. Here, “domestic yearly box office” refers to the total amount of money spent on tickets by moviegoers in the U.S. and Canada. The relevant figures are to be given in nominal USD.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:26.915Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:53.689Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 122, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43275,13 +43414,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6111/khan-final-round-mayoral-election-vote-share/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[Sadiq Aman Khan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sadiq_Khan), born 8 October 1970, is a British politician serving as Mayor of London since 2016. He previously was Member of Parliament for Tooting from 2005 until 2016. A member of the Labour Party, Khan is on the party's soft left and has been ideologically characterised as a social democrat.\n[The 2021 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election) will be held on 6 May 2021 to elect [the mayor of London](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_London). It will be held simultaneously with elections for the London Assembly and other local elections. The mayoral and Assembly elections were originally due to be held on 7 May 2020, but in March 2020 it was announced the election would be postponed until 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.\nThe election will use a supplementary vote system, in which voters express a first and a second preference for candidates. \n--- \nIf a candidate receives more than 50% of the first preference vote, that candidate wins.\n--- \nIf no candidate receives more than 50% of first preference votes, the top two candidates proceed to a second round and all other candidates are eliminated.\n--- \nThe first preference votes for the remaining two candidates stand in the final count.\n--- \nVoters' ballots whose first and second preference candidates have both been eliminated are discarded.\n--- \nVoters whose first preference candidates have been eliminated and whose second preference candidate is one of the top two have their second preference votes added to that candidate's count.\nThis means that the winning candidate has the support of a majority of voters who expressed a preference among the top two.\nIn [the 2016 London mayoral election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_London_mayoral_election#Results), Khan's final round vote share was 56.8%.\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_London_mayoral_election#Opinion_polls) in 2020 has shown Khan to be heavily favoured to win the election.\nWhat percentage of final round votes will Sadiq Khan win in the 2021 London mayoral election?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the popular vote that Sadiq Khan wins in the final round of the 2021 London mayoral election. If the election is not held in 2021, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:54.866Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 182, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-07T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-04T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-06T23:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6362/usa-drop-out-of-world-top-20-gdpc/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The wealth of nations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Nations) is a topic going back 100s of years. Some countries are clearly many times richer than others. But why? And is it predictable who comes out ahead and who falls from the pedestal? There are significant changes over time, even in the period since 1900. [Argentina was among the top 10 wealthiest countries in 1913](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina), but today lingers around [position 50-60 among countries with at least 1M population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita). The recent political crisis of the USA's open the question of whether USA's position among the most wealthy countries will continue. USA is currently the 6th wealthiest country in GDP per capita (PPP).\nWhen will USA's GDP per capita (PPP) fall out of the world top 20?\n---Countries with 1M population size only. \n---Primary source of data on GDP per capita, PPP from IMF's collection. Only if it goes defunct, should we use World Bank data. If that goes, admins choose one. \n---Hong Kong and Macau are not included (non-sovereign). \n---If this question does resolve positively on any in-range date, it resolves as >. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:28.880Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:56.141Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -43300,7 +43458,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A correction is [defined as](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp),\na decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak.\nWhen will be the next S&P 500 correction?\nThe S&P 500 is said to have entered a correction if the closing price is less than or equal to 90% of the closing price at its highest point. This question resolves on the date of the next correction after this question opens.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:30.590Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:57.454Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { @@ -43330,7 +43488,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:32.472Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:58.669Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 189, "resolution_data": { @@ -43349,7 +43507,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[PHOSP](https://www.phosp.org/study-news/phosp-covid-launching-press-release/) is a study aiming to investigate the long term effects of coronavirus on patients who were hospitalised with the disease. It will recruit 10,000 volunteers from the UK, and has stated that it intends to investigate:\nthe short (0-6 months), medium (6-12 months) and long term (12 months +) effects of the disease.\nThis question asks:\nWhat fraction of hospitalised COVID-19 patients will still experience symptoms after 12 months?\nThis question will resolve according to a published estimate from PHOSP, of the fraction of hospitalised patients enrolled in the study who displayed symptoms 12+ months later. Symptoms may be of any sort considered clinically relevant by PHOSP. As a non-exhaustive example of what they are currently investigating, their about page states:\nThe range and severity of symptoms arising from the virus is broad, from those with no or minimal symptoms, to severe pneumonia in 15-20 per cent of cases, with evidence of widespread disease beyond the lungs, including the heart and circulatory system, kidney damage and effects on the brain.\nPatients who die during the 12 months post enrolment in the study, for any reason, count towards resolution. i.e. death is considered a symptom \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:34.392Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:21:59.902Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -43368,7 +43526,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to the COVID Tracking Project, the number of people in the US hospitalized with COVID-19 has remained above 30k for almost the entirety of the period starting on April 3, 2020 (when that level was first exceeded) up to the posting of this question.\nAs of the posting of this question, US hospitalizations are declining, having peaked at ~130k in early January 2021 and fallen below 100k by the end of January 2021.\nOn what date will the number of people currently hospitalized in the US due to COVID-19 first fall below 30k?\n[https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-…](https://covidtracking.com/data/charts/us-all-key-metrics)\nResolves to the earliest date on which \"Currently Hospitalized\" at the linked page is below 30,000 (raw figure, not 7-day avg.).\nIf the covid tracking project is no longer updated, the University of Minnesota [hospitalization tracker](https://carlsonschool.umn.edu/mili-misrc-covid19-tracking-project) will be the definitive source.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:36.454Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:01.139Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 309, "resolution_data": { @@ -43381,13 +43539,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:03.060Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 33, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4967/what-will-be-the-real-median-household-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The real (inflation adjusted) [median household income](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Household_income_in_the_United_States) can be seen as an economic indicator measuring how well-off an average family is within some economic region, insensitive to wealth inequality (unlike GDP per capita).\nThe Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed [tracks the real median household income in the United States over time](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA672N). The most recent year they have data for is 2018, with a real median household income of $63,179.\nThis question asks, what will be the real median household income in the United States in 2030, in dollars?\nIn case The Economic Research at the St. Louis Fed does not have the data on January 1st 2032 (the anticipated date of resolution), any other reputable source is appropriate to use for resolution.\nThe historical data is copied into a csv format below, for convenience:\nYear,Income 1984,51742 1985,52709 1986,54608 1987,55260 1988,55716 1989,56678 1990,55952 1991,54318 1992,53897 1993,53610 1994,54233 1995,55931 1996,56744 1997,57911 1998,60040 1999,61526 2000,61399 2001,60038 2002,59360 2003,59286 2004,59080 2005,59712 2006,60178 2007,60985 2008,58811 2009,58400 2010,56873 2011,56006 2012,55900 2013,57856 2014,56969 2015,59901 2016,61779 2017,62626 2018,63179 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:38.240Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:04.247Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 55, "resolution_data": { @@ -43417,7 +43594,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:40.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:05.722Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -43430,32 +43607,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6881/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-may-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/general/092713/how-read-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index.asp) is a key economic indicator that helps predict the future movements in the economy by illustrating the average US consumer’s confidence level. Predominantly helpful for retailers, economists, and investors, data for this indicator is collected through telephone surveys every month to a random cross section of US consumers across the country. Consisting of 60% new recipients, and 40% repeat recipients from previous surveys, the survey attempts to accurately measure and portray shifts in consumer sentiment and confidence in the economy. \n“[Respondents are polled](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment) to express their opinion on the following questions: Whether their families' financial conditions have become better or worse than a year ago; Whether respondents expect their families' financial conditions to become better or worse a year from now; Whether business conditions in the next 12 months will become better or worse; How conditions in the country may change in the next five years - whether respondents expect stability or growth of unemployment or depression; Whether it is a good time to purchase large household items and make other large purchases (such as to buy a house, a car, etc.). Answers to these questions are calculated as follows: the percentage of negative values is subtracted from positive ones, and 100 is added to the resulting value. The resulting values ​​are added up and divided by 6.7558 (the benchmark value), after which 2 (the correction constant for the sample composition) is added to the resulting figure.”\nConsumers who feel more confident about the future of the economy are more likely to increase their demand and purchasing habits, and pull money out of savings. However, the opposite is true when consumers feel less confident. When more money flows through the economy, there is less worry for recession, and the index value increases.\nPrevious Questions:\n[US Michigan CSI Prelim. for April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6808/us-michigan-csi-prelim-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/michigan-consumer-sentiment-320)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Fxstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/608ffc81-99e8-4b1c-b673-633100761034?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the absolute index number for the preliminary monthly value of the CSI. \nThe resolution will be sourced from the [University of Michigan](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/data-archive/mine.php) or other alternative reporting sources such as [MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/michigan-consumer-sentiment).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:42.033Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-05-08T18:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-05-21T18:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will a crewed spacecraft enter interstellar space for the first time?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1637/when-will-a-crewed-spacecraft-enter-interstellar-space-for-the-first-time/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For the second time in history, a human-made object has reached the space between the stars. NASA’s Voyager 2 probe, launched on August 20 1977, has now has exited the heliosphere – the protective bubble of particles and magnetic fields created by the Sun. The only human-made object to previously achieve this was Voyager 1, launched on September 5, 1977. Both of these craft are unmanned probes. \nThis question asks: When will a crewed spacecraft containing living and conscious human beings be confirmed to be outside of the Sun's heliosphere?\nFor the purposes of this question, the humans on the spacecraft must be both alive and conscious at the time that the spacecraft is confirmed to be outside the heliosphere. Humans in any kind of cryonic preservation, suspended animation, hibernation or other similar state at the time that the craft is declared to be outside the heliosphere are excluded, as are 'mind uploads' (a hypothetical futuristic process of scanning the mental state (including long-term memory and \"self\") of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer) that are hosted locally on the spacecraft, or any other kind of non-human consciousness.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:43.929Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:06.963Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 183, "resolution_data": { @@ -43474,7 +43632,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of Feb 15, 2020, in the top free iOS Apps under \"Social Networking\" category, Discord is at #4 and Clubhouse is at #6. \n(It should be noted that Clubhouse is only available on iOS right now whereas Discord is a multi-device, multi-platform app. This question, for the sake of simplicity and verifiability, deals only with the iOS ranking.)\nWhen (if at all) will Clubhouse surpass Discord in US Apple App Store?\nThe ranking of Clubhouse in the US App Store for iOS is higher than that of Discord.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:47.728Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:08.120Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -43493,7 +43651,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 1971, the US [ratified the 26th Amendment and lowered its voting age from 21 to 18](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twenty-sixth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#:~:text=In%201970%2C%20Senator%20Ted%20Kennedy,%2C%20state%2C%20and%20local%20elections.).\nSince then, several proposals to lower the voting age have been put forward. None have passed nationally, but [a number of states and municipalities allow limited forms of voting by people younger than 18](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/).\nWhen, if ever, will people <18 years old vote in national elections in the US?\nThis question resolves positive if at least 50.1% of 17-year-old US citizens are able to vote in federal elections. They must be able to vote in races for at least 2 of 3 offices: US Senate, House of Representatives, or President.\nOnly [general federal elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oregon_v._Mitchell) will be considered, primaries, state and local elections are not relevant to the question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:49.786Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:09.298Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -43512,7 +43670,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2022 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2022 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:51.663Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:10.538Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -43542,7 +43700,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:53.636Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:11.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -43572,9 +43730,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:55.767Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:13.644Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 290, + "numforecasts": 291, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43591,9 +43749,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th 2021 saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6398/initial-jobless-claims-in-march-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6399/initial-jobless-claims-in-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the 4-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\nAdditional forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/9c689bbf-af2a-4f65-81a8-c5f5e2b78d70?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/initial-jobless-claims)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 6-May, 13-May, 20-May, 27-May.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:57.487Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:15.009Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 43, + "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-25T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43610,7 +43768,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nPrevious Questions:\n[Change in US Durable Goods Orders April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6809/change-in-us-durable-goods-orders-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/f1507617-7378-4df3-88f1-c35ae395018a?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Briefing](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/durable-goods-orders-86)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/durable-goods-orders#:~:text=Looking%20forward%2C%20we%20estimate%20Durable,according%20to%20our%20econometric%20models)\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for May 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:17:59.395Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:16.200Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -43629,7 +43787,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6402/industrial-production-index-march-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6403/industrial-production-index-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these sources:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/2635188a-b377-4179-864c-029cad0ed529?timezoneOffset=0)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/industrial-production-mm)\n[Briefing.com](https://www.briefing.com/calendars/economic?Filter=Week2)\n[Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/industrial-production-mom)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-04/30/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/industrial-production-161)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:03.478Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:18.793Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -43659,9 +43817,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:05.296Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:20.253Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 108, + "numforecasts": 109, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-10T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43678,7 +43836,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of August 2020, the best performing model is [T5 from Google](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which receives a score of 89.3. The human baseline is 89.8. Unfortunately, outside of the benchmark T5 does not seem to match general-purpose language understanding skills of humans.\nTherefore, this question considers a more challenging regime for the benchmark recently presented in [the GPT-3 paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165). The few-shot regime is when the model has severely limited access to the training set. This question will take into account models that have been trained on maximally 100 examples from each task and asks:\nWhen will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?\nThis question will resolve as soon as a model with access to at most 100 examples per task meeting or exceeding 89.8 human baseline is announced to the public. A pre-print or published paper from a reputable source is sufficient by itself to trigger resolution. Any other source can count too if the result can be verified by [SuperGLUE leader board submission](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nCurrently, GPT-3 achieves the best performance of 71.8 in a few-shot regime with access to 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance.\nTraining data contamination similar to GPT-3 issue is allowed as long as the authors have made sure that it does not impact the evaluation in a severe way.\nSimilar question: [When will a language model meet or exceed the human baseline on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4869/when-will-a-language-model-meet-or-exceed-the-human-baseline-on-superglue/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:07.221Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:21.870Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { @@ -43708,7 +43866,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:09.127Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:23.032Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -43738,9 +43896,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:12.895Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:24.452Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 594, + "numforecasts": 605, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43768,7 +43926,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:14.857Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:25.864Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -43798,7 +43956,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:16.738Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:27.414Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 55, "resolution_data": { @@ -43828,7 +43986,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:18.645Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:28.657Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 132, "resolution_data": { @@ -43858,7 +44016,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:20.448Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:29.863Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 227, "resolution_data": { @@ -43888,9 +44046,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:22.467Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:31.264Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 56, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-08T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -43907,7 +44065,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the first decade of the 21st century, the World produced [more economic value than in the first 19 centuries of the common era combined](https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2011/06/28/two-thousand-years-in-one-chart). From the long-term perspective of social history, lasting economic prosperity and economic growth that exceeds population growth is only a very recent achievement for humanity. \nSince 1961, World GDP grew at an [average rate of 3.5%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) resulting in a 7.1 fold increase, or a doubling once every 15.678 years or around 188 months. Although GDP growth rates are prone to shocks, world GDP has not recently shown to stagnate for long periods of time. In fact, world GDP growth was positive for all periods since 1961 [except for 2009](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD), following the [global financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008).\nCurrently, in the third quarter of 2018, world GDP is estimated to be [around $80.078 trillion](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) in 2010 prices. World GDP is taken to mean the sum of gross value, at purchaser's prices in U.S. dollars added by all resident producers in the economy. It is calculated without making deductions for the depletion and degradation of natural resources.\nWhat will be World GDP at the end of 2028 in trillions at current prices in U.S. dollars?\nFor the purpose of this question, we will refer to the data published by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD) given in 2010 U.S. dollars. The same deflator used by the World Bank is to be applied for calculating 2028 GDP. If a different base year is adopted by the World Bank, the relevant GDP figures will simply be scaled so that 2017's GDP remains $80.078 trillion.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:24.240Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:32.457Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { @@ -43937,7 +44095,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:25.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:33.788Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -43967,7 +44125,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:27.787Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:34.969Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -43986,7 +44144,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For the decade from Jan 1, 2022 to Dec 31, 2031, what annual percentage return (including dividends) will the S&P 500 index achieve?\n\"Annual return\" refers to the geometric mean over the 10 years, that is:\nReturn should be measured on an inflation-adjusted basis. Inflation rates to be determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:29.934Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:36.207Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 210, "resolution_data": { @@ -44005,7 +44163,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Repeated use of antibiotics has led to the existence of resistant strains of bacteria, which are immune to the effects of multiple different antibiotics. This has been described as a \"serious, worldwide threat to public health\" by [the WHO](https://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/releases/2014/amr-report/en/).\nIn 2013 the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/drugresistance/biggest_threats.html) that over 23,000 people died each year from antibiotic-resistant infections in the US. More recent data on their website suggests the figure is more like 37,000. I ask:\nHow many deaths will be due to antibiotic-resistant infections in the US in the calendar year 2035, according to an estimate by CDC or another credible source report?\nResolution should be based on CDC estimates, or if not available, the median of credible estimates in reputable publications found by Metaculites and/or admin on the day the question is resolved.\nRelated question: [Will the number of deaths from antibiotic-resistant infections per year double by the end of 2025? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2937/will-the-number-of-deaths-from-antibiotic-resistant-infections-per-year-double-by-the-end-of-2025/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:31.723Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:37.404Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { @@ -44035,7 +44193,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:33.956Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:38.688Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 260, "resolution_data": { @@ -44065,9 +44223,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:35.825Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:39.896Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 306, + "numforecasts": 307, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-01T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44095,7 +44253,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:37.729Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:41.181Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { @@ -44125,7 +44283,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:39.570Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:42.328Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { @@ -44144,9 +44302,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Many AI researchers have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 1st, 2026 what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training by an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:41.397Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:44.032Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-15T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44163,7 +44321,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the Paris climate accord, world leaders promised to keep the global temperature increase this century (relative to pre-industrial levels) \"well below 2 ˚C\" and if possible below 1.5 ˚C. Many experts are skeptical about this goal being feasible, stating that even if all Paris targets are met, global warming may reach levels up to 3 ˚C above pre-industrial levels. Furthermore, with the coming departure of the United States from the agreement, the meeting of global targets may be in jeopardy.\n[It was previously asked whether global warming would exceed 2 ˚C.](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/585/2c-global-warming-by-2100/) While this is the more interesting question out of a political perspective, given that world leaders have taken 2 ˚C to be their target, the more interesting question for humanity as a whole will be how much warming we will actually have.\nTherefore it is asked:How much greater (in ˚C) will the average global temperature in 2100 be than the average global temperature in 1880?\nData for resolution shall, as with the previous question, come from [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/), if possible. Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:43.664Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:45.895Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 497, "resolution_data": { @@ -44182,7 +44340,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Image Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:45.487Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:47.078Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -44212,7 +44370,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:49.147Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:48.700Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 364, "resolution_data": { @@ -44231,7 +44389,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U March 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6404/cpi-u--change-for-march-2021/)\n[CPI-U April 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6405/cpi-u--change-for-april-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for May 2021?\nAlternative forecasts and historical data can be found through these platforms:\n[FXstreet](https://www.fxstreet.com/economic-calendar/event/c28721ec-1bde-4fa5-bba7-86a3755288ca?timezoneOffset=0)\n[Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-69)\n[MQL5](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/consumer-price-index-mm)\n[Markets Insider](https://markets.businessinsider.com/economic-calendar#date=12/01/2020-03/31/2021&name=&countries=us&eventtypes=&tab=1,2,3)\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:50.954Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:49.919Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -44250,7 +44408,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nIn April 2017, Waymo launched an early rider program in Phoenix, Arizona, which signed up 400 users to try out a test edition of Waymo's transportation service. Over the next year, 400 riders used the Waymo service, providing feedback. In May 2018, Waymo announced that it plans to allow everyone in Phoenix to request a driverless ride before the end of the year. On December 5, 2018, the company launched a commercial self-driving car service called \"Waymo One\"; users in the Phoenix metropolitan area use an app to request a pick-up.\nBy November 2019, the service was operating autonomous vehicles without a safety backup driver, the first autonomous service worldwide operating without safety drivers in the car.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 for opened questions in the last 12 months report riding a Waymo self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Waymo taxi we mean any Waymo car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:52.926Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:51.087Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -44280,7 +44438,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:54.794Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:52.668Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -44299,9 +44457,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-07-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:56.641Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:54.381Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 64, + "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:53Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44318,9 +44476,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Various figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nIn 2020, OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#org=openai&page=46) used 3640 petaFLOPS-days in its training run.\nBy February 14 2023, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(OpenAI, 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3. We provide some example calculations below.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:18:58.378Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:55.593Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 89, + "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44337,7 +44495,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Object detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing). As December 2020 the index stood at 116.88.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2023-02-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:00.216Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:56.933Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { @@ -44350,13 +44508,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:58.544Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 77, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If no human challenge trials are run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5128/if-no-human-challenge-trials-are-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5128)\nHuman challenge trials involve deliberately exposing participants to infection in order to study diseases and test vaccines or treatments. As of August 19, 2020, the organization [1Day Sooner had recruited 34,804 volunteers](https://1daysooner.org/) for COVID-19 human challenge trials. [This Metaculus question](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) asks when a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people will be completed. The current median community prediction is February 5, 2021.\nHow many deaths that are directly attributed to COVID-19 will occur if no human challenge trials are run before February 5, 2021, in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people?\nResolution:\n---Whether a human challenge trial for COVID-19 has occurred will be based on the resolution of the question: [When will a human challenge study in which a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate is administered to at least 80 people be completed?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4070/when-will-a-human-challenge-study-in-which-a-sars-cov-2-vaccine-candidate-is-administered-to-at-least-80-people-be-completed/) \n---If no human challenge trial occurs before February 5, 2021, then this question will resolve as the resolution of this question: [How many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3988/how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \n---If one or more human challenge trials for COVID-19 take place before February 5, 2021, then this question resolves ambiguously. \nOther possible world:\n---[If at least one human challenge trial is run for COVID-19 before February 5, 2021, how many total deaths in the US will be directly attributed to COVID-19 in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5127/if-at-least-one-human-challenge-trial-is-run-for-covid-19-before-february-5-2021-how-many-total-deaths-in-the-us-will-be-directly-attributed-to-covid-19-in-2021/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:02.059Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:22:59.749Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 230, "resolution_data": { @@ -44386,7 +44563,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:04.003Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:00.993Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 200, "resolution_data": { @@ -44399,32 +44576,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6529/e-prints-ai-safety-2021-02-14-to-2023-02-14/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of AI Safety, interpretability or explainability e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 2020 \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:05.694Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 76, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5243/arab-league-normalized-relations-with-israel/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the [Khartoum Resolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khartoum_Resolution) of 1967 the members of the Arab League declared what became known as the \"Three Nos\": \"no peace with Israel, no recognition of Israel, no negotiations with it...\"\nSince then, two members, [Egypt 1979](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egypt–Israel_peace_treaty) and [Jordan 1987](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Jordan_peace_treaty) have made peace with Israel. In August and September [UAE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–United_Arab_Emirates_peace_agreement) and [Bahrain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bahrain–Israel_normalization_agreement) have declared intent to normalize relations with Israel.\nThis brings the total of Arab League members with normalized relations with Israel in 2020 to four.\n60 years after the Khartoum Resolution, how many member states of the Arab League will have normalized relations with Israel?\nHow many Arab League member states will have normalized relations with Israel in 2027?\nThe resolution will count every member state of the Arab League according to the [Member states of the Arab League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_Arab_League) Wikipedia page that maintains diplomatic relations with Israel and has not suspended relations according to the [List by country table of the International recognition of Israel Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_Israel#List_by_country).\nIn order for the State of Palestine to count towards the resolution, Israel must recognize Palestine as a sovereign state, the recognition of Israel by Palestine as part of the Oslo accords is not enough.\nThe count of the number of Arab League nations that have normalized relations with Israel is to be taken at 2027-10-09.\nIf the Arab League is dissolved before the resolution, the question resolves ambiguously, unless there is an official successor organization.\nThe Arab League has 22 member as of 2020, if the membership expands, the theoretical number resolution of this question can exceed 22, making >22 a valid option.\nShould Israel itself join the Arab League or a successor organization it won't be counted against the resolution criteria. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:07.705Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:02.219Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { @@ -44454,7 +44612,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:09.497Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:03.395Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { @@ -44484,7 +44642,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:13.170Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:05.897Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -44497,32 +44655,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:15.010Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 56, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will China officially cease to be a socialist state?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6595/china-to-officially-cease-being-socialist/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Article 1 of the [current constitution](http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/englishnpc/Constitution/node_2825.htm) of the People's Republic of China, adopted in 1982, states that:\nThe People’s Republic of China is a socialist state under the people’s democratic dictatorship led by the working class and based on the alliance of workers and peasants.\nWhile the Chinese economy has transitioned to a much more free-market system in the past four decades, the Chinese state continues to refer to itself as a socialist state in its own constitution.\nWhen will China officially cease to be a socialist state?\nThis question resolves when both of the following conditions are satisfied:\n1-- \nThere is a state which has de facto control of more than 50% (by area) of the land currently controlled by the People's Republic of China, excluding the five [autonomous regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_regions_of_China) of Xinjiang, Tibet, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Guangxi.\nAny future changes in the borders or the legal status of these regions will be disregarded - for the purposes of this condition, the regions are taken as having the borders they did at the time this question opened.\n2-- \nThe constitution of this state does not contain a sentence asserting that the state is socialist. This condition will also be satisfied if the state doesn't have a written constitution.\nThe resolution date is the earliest day in which both 1. and 2. are true for the whole day. If the conditions are not met until the resolution time of the question, the question resolves as >.\nFor the purpose of this question, asserting that the state is communist is taken to be equivalent to asserting that the state is socialist.\nThe first condition is verified by reference to a reputable source. De facto control means that merely claiming land without having actual physical control over it is insufficient. The second condition is verified, ideally, by reference to an official website of or other official documents containing the constitution released by the state in question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:17.168Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:07.597Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { @@ -44541,7 +44680,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This year, just weeks after globe-conquering tech giant Apple reached its $1 trillion value milestone, Amazon has joined them in crossing the threshold ([at some surprise to Metaculus forecasters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/651/a-trillion-dollar-company-by-the-end-of-2018/)).\nApple was valued at around [$100 billion in mid 2007](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AAPL/apple/market-cap), and so it has taken the company roughly 11 years to grow its market capitalisation by a factor of ten. Amazon's rise was even more impressive. Amazon has grown from $100 bn to $1 trillion [in just over 6 years](https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/AMZN/amazon/market-cap).\nTo put the $10 trillion figure in some perspective, the United States currently (Q2, 2018) has a GDP of $20 trillion at current prices.\nWhen will the first publicly traded company achieve a $10 trillion market capitalisation in today's prices?\nThis resolves when a company whose shares can be bought and sold on a stock exchange achieves a market capitalisation of $10 trillion dollars adjusted to 2018 prices. The question will refer to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/)'s data, or any other reputable financial data service.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:18.997Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:09.445Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { @@ -44554,13 +44693,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6674/vaccine-doses-administered-in-eu-by-october/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many million doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in the EU on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:11.032Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 60, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:55Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-29T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-09-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6569/sota-one-billion-word-2023-02-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2023-02-14, in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2023-02-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:22.259Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:12.207Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { @@ -44579,7 +44737,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Greece has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Greece for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) once the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:24.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:14.168Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -44598,7 +44756,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (error) for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100, or 1-(percentage correct)/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:26.291Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:16.101Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 121, "resolution_data": { @@ -44617,7 +44775,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every year since 2000, Pantone conducts a secretive process to select their \"Color of the Year\", which they usually announce for the upcoming year around early December. Let's see if we can forecast the Color for 2022.\nWhat will be the Hue (in angular degrees) of Pantone's Color of the Year for 2022?\nThe question will be resolved according to the approximate [hue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hue) of the Color as estimated by the relevant [Encycolorpedia entry](https://encycolorpedia.com/).\nThe announcement of the color typically occurs around early December, but the date is not certain, so the question will retroactively close 24 hours before the announcement is made.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if any of the following occur:\n---Pantone announces multiple Colors of the Year (as it did for 2016 and 2021). \n---Pantone fails (for any reason) to announce a Color of the Year for 2022 before 2021-12-31. \n---At the time of closing, Encycolorpedia does not have an entry for the color selected as Color of the Year, or the entry does not provide a Hue. \n---The hue reported by Encycolorpedia is outside the range 0-360 (inclusive). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:28.158Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:17.364Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { @@ -44636,7 +44794,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if less than 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:29.997Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:18.619Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { @@ -44666,7 +44824,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:32.279Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:20.731Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 330, "resolution_data": { @@ -44679,34 +44837,15 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:34.081Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 35, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "How many emoji related court cases in 2021?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6361/emoji-court-cases-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Emojis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emoji), eg 😃, 😂, ✋, 🚀, are increasingly being used in electronic communications.\nEach year, [Eric Goldman](https://blog.ericgoldman.org/archives/2021/01/emoji-law-year-in-review-for-2020.htm) publishes a round up of court cases involving emojis. Their number has been increasing steadily over time, with 132 cases in 2020.\nHow many emoji related court cases in 2021?\nResolution will be per Eric Goldman's blog in early 2022. If no such round up appears but his [caselaw tally](https://digitalcommons.law.scu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3397&context=historical) is still being updated, then we will count ourselves from that. If the caselaw tally is no longer being updated, this question resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:35.778Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:21.902Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 39, + "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44718,38 +44857,19 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/", + "title": "What will US house prices be at the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5780/real-us-house-prices-in-2021/", "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble).\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2021?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2021?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2021 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:37.555Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:23.074Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", + "publish_time": "2020-12-09T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, - { - "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:39.384Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T04:00:00Z" + "close_time": "2021-12-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-03-31T23:00:00Z" }, "stars": 3 }, @@ -44772,9 +44892,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:41.237Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:25.086Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 48, + "numforecasts": 49, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-18T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44785,6 +44905,44 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3357/what-will-the-mean-of-the-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-of-the-all-500-supercomputers-in-the-top500-be-in-the-three-year-period-ending-in-november-2023/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the [TOP500](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) experienced an an average (geometric mean) of 68.9% year-over-year growth since the first TOP500 publication in July of 1993. This growth rate amounts to a doubling time in total computational power of the top 500 supercomputers of roughly 16 months.\nProgress in compute seemed to have peaked in the three year period ending in 2008 at an average of 128.85% year-over-year growth. The weakest growth was in the three year period ending in 2014, at an average of only 30.45%.\nWhat will the mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be, in the three year period ending in November 2023 (in percent)?\nResolution\nThe question resolves as the geometric mean of the year-over-year growth rate of the sum of performance on the High Performance Linpack (HPL) benchmark of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500, in teraflops, over the three year period ending November 2024. That is, the question resolves as the geometric mean of the growth rates (in %) over the following six periods:\n---Jul 2020 to Jul 2021 \n---Nov 2020 to Nov 2021 \n---Jul 2021 to Jul 2022 \n---Nov 2021 to Nov 2022 \n---Jul 2022 to Jul 2023 \n---Nov 2023 to Nov 2023 \nThe [geometric mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean) is used, as opposed to the more common arithmetic mean, because this is appropriate for growth that compounds over time.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jVaqAKzh-f4jAlaNvglp5MX16xd7wi2iVPFvL5Ahzzw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:26.287Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 116, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-23T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "The Top500's total sum in 2030 as a multiple of the total sum in 2015", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1600/the-top500s-total-sum-in-2030-as-a-multiple-of-the-total-sum-in-2015/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In a related [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1492/what-will-be-top500s-1-performing-supercomputer-as-a-multiple-of-the-500-performer-in-2030/), we looked at Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer, and forecasted that multiple's trend.\nFor this question we'll be looking at the growth of the top 500 supercomputers as a group. Their group performance is measured by the sum of the 500's top supercomputers' [Linpack Benchmark](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/), which reflects the performance of a dedicated system for solving a dense system of linear equations. Specifically, this question asks by what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by 2030 in comparison to the performance of the top 500 supercomputers in 2015?\nHere are some examples of 15-year total-sum Linpack Benchmark factor increases:\n--- \nIn June 1993, the sum was 1.1 teraflop/s. 15 years later in June 2008, the sum had reached 12,200 teraflops (12.2 petaflops). This makes a ratio of 11,091.\n--- \nIn November 2003 the sum was 526.7 teraflop/s. By November 2018 the sum had reached 1,400,000 teraflop/s (1.4 exaflop/s). This makes a ratio of 2,658.\nDevelopment over time can be seen [in this chart.](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/)\nWhat sorts of changes to the trend might we expect in the coming years? By what multiple will the sum of Linpack performance for the top 500 supercomputers increase by June 2030 in comparison to the same metric for June 2015?\nResolution will based on Top500's reported June 2030 numbers. We will take the top 500 sum in June 2030, and divide by the top 500 sum in June 2015 (359.3 petaflop/s). If their reporting is not available, other reports will be sought. The question will resolve ambiguous if clear reporting on the Linpack performance of the top500 supercomputers is not available.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:27.656Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 132, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-12-04T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T05:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-07-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "If Trump is not sworn in as President in 2021, will he become the Republican nominee for President in 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5049/if-trump-is-not-sworn-in-as-president-in-2021-will-he-become-the-republican-nominee-for-president-in-2024/", @@ -44802,7 +44960,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:43.115Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:28.871Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 600, "resolution_data": { @@ -44821,9 +44979,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Durable goods orders](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/durable-goods-orders.asp) is a broad, monthly survey conducted by the US Census Bureau to measure the current level of industrial activity within the US. Focusing more on the supply chain side of the economy than other indicators, the durable goods orders can act as a valuable tool in understanding the earnings of industries such as machinery, technology, manufacturing, and transportation. A higher number is seen as bullish for the economy as supply moves upward to meet consumer demand, while a low number is seen as bearish and can predict an upcoming economic downturn. The durable goods orders can also be indicative of upcoming changes in stock price for companies within these industries as well. \nData for this number encompasses over [5,000 independently polled companies across 92 different industries](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders), and is highly volatile due to the high price of the durable goods, which is why several months of data for orders is often used for economic analysis.\nWhat will be the percentage change in the number of US durable goods ordered in April 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nPredictions should reflect the percent change in the number of durable goods ordered for April 2021. Resolution will be sourced from the US Census Bureau or from other reporting sources such as MQL5. \nHistorical data can be found [here](https://www.mql5.com/en/economic-calendar/united-states/durable-goods-orders).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:45.015Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:31.124Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 32, + "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44840,7 +44998,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---[If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6547/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-0-10/). \n---If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive) — this question. \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $15 or greater at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is less than $15 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:46.814Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:32.365Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -44859,7 +45017,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in the United States. See [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA). The most recent data is for 2016, with a coefficient of 41.4.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in the United States in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nFor convenience, the historical Gini coefficient data is below in csv format:\nDate,Gini coefficnet 1974,35.3 1979,34.6 1986,37.5 1991,38.2 1994,40.2 1997,40.7 2000,40.3 2004,40.5 2007,41.0 2010,40.3 2013,41 2016,41.4 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:48.518Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:33.525Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { @@ -44878,9 +45036,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Some text has been copied from [this closely aligned question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2951/will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-in-a-human-before-1-january-2022/). \n[Neuralink Corporation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink) is an American neurotechnology company founded in 2016 by serial entrepreneur Elon Musk and others, developing implantable brain–machine interfaces (BMIs).\nSince its founding, the company has hired several high-profile neuroscientists from various universities. By July 2019, it had received $158 million in funding (of which $100 million from Musk) and was employing a staff of 90 employees.\nAt that time, Neuralink announced that it was working on a “sewing machine-like” robot capable of implanting very thin \"threads\" into the brain, demonstrated a system that read information from a lab rat's brain via thousands of electrodes (many times more than the current maximum for systems used in human brains), and Musk announced an aspirational goal to start experiments with humans in 2020, pending FDA approval.\nIn the short term, the company aims to develop brain-machine interfaces to assist individuals with serious physical or neurological conditions; [but the longer term goal of the company is to enable human-AI symbiosis and grant superhuman cognition to anyone who wants it, as well as a form of digital immortality](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/tech/elon-musk-wants-hook-your-brain-directly-computers-starting-next-ncna1030631).\nThis question asks: When will the US Food and Drug Administration grant regulatory approval allowing any device developed in whole or in part by Neuralink Corporation to be sold, and implanted into the brains of human consumers?\nYou can find information on the FDA's Regulatory Overview for Neurological Devices [here](https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/neurological-devices/regulatory-overview-neurological-devices).\nThe implantation surgery need not actually occur by that date (or at all) in order for this question to resolve positively; this question focuses solely on when regulatory approval will be obtained.\nThis question resolves >2050 if no approval is given before 2050. The question resolves ambiguously if the FDA is abolished, or if its role is changed such that regulatory approval is no longer required for this procedure.\nChangelog:\n2020-08-17 : removed § triggering positive resolution upon Investigational Device Exemption or Humanitarian Device Exemption. See [this thread](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4966/when-will-the-us-fda-grant-neuralink-permission-to-sell-and-implant-a-brain-machine-interface-device-into-general-consumers/#comment-37813).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:51.894Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:36.227Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 121, + "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -44908,7 +45066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:53.586Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:37.488Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { @@ -44927,7 +45085,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Donald Trump is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nPlease note that there have already been two prominent historical rankings of presidents which have included Donald Trump. [One](https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Presidents-2018-Rank-by-Category.pdf) gave him a rank of 42/44 and [another](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/02/19/opinion/how-does-trump-stack-up-against-the-best-and-worst-presidents.html) gave him a rank of 44/44 (though only 40/44 when you ask only Republican scholars).\nHow will Donald Trump rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Donald Trump in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Donald Trump. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Trump. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:55.544Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:38.680Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 304, "resolution_data": { @@ -44957,7 +45115,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:57.366Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:39.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 70, "resolution_data": { @@ -44987,7 +45145,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:19:59.225Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:41.034Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { @@ -45017,7 +45175,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:03.048Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:43.570Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { @@ -45036,7 +45194,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe Federal Reserve keeps an [Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) which measures and records the monthly real output of all industrial facilities within the United States including manufacturing, mining, electric, and gas utilities, and is seasonally adjusted.\nThe industrial sector, along with construction, [accounts for most of the variation in national output](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top) over the business cycle. Large drops in industrial production from a drop in supply or consumer demand would indicate a change in economic growth, and potentially signal the beginning of a period of economic contraction. Likewise, a large boom in production and demand would indicate economic expansion, and boost investor confidence in those industries. Understanding economic fluctuations and health is imperative for investors and companies alike involved in the stock market.\nAnother important metric which often accompanies the Industrial Production Index is the Capacity Utilization Rate. This [rate provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509752&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top).\nRelated questions:\n[Industrial Production Index January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5797/industrial-production-index-january-2021/)\n[Industrial Production Index February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5798/industrial-production-index-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the Industrial Production Index number for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided by the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/INDPRO) and their monthly measurements of the Industrial Production Index. If data is not collected or recorded, then this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:05.227Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:44.804Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -45066,9 +45224,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:07.042Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:46.304Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 291, + "numforecasts": 292, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-17T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -45085,7 +45243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Large-scale generation of electric power by nuclear fusion is a holy grail of energy science research. The potential for scalability (due to abundant ocean reserves of deuterium), and the relatively small level and short lifetime of radioactive waste could allow fusion power to contribute significantly to a zero-carbon sustainable global electrical supply. \nIn additional to large governmental efforts like the US [National Ignition Facility](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Ignition_Facility), Europe's [ITER](https://www.iter.org), [HiPER](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HiPER), and the [Wendelstein 7-X](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wendelstein_7-X), there are also a number of private companies developing fusion technology.\nPrivate efforts include [General Fusion](http://generalfusion.com), [Tri-Alpha Energy](http://trialphaenergy.com), and [Lockheed-Martin](http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/compact-fusion.html), but all are cagey about their benchmarks and progress. Is there a real shot at zero-carbon, zero-long-lived nuclear waste energy from fusion, from these or the larger governmental efforts?\nWell ask: When will the first facility generating a net 100 MW of electricity, using only fusion, come online? \nTo separate this from a distinct question of low-energy nuclear reaction technologies, we'll specify that this applies to hot nuclear fusion at 100,000 K or more.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:08.857Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:47.505Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 295, "resolution_data": { @@ -45115,7 +45273,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:10.750Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:48.917Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -45134,7 +45292,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2000, 2009, and 2017, C-Span surveyed historians to compile a historical ranking of US presidents. You can see the 2017 rankings [here](https://www.c-span.org/presidentsurvey2017/?page=overall). In the next C-Span survey for which Joe Biden is included, which spot will he earn overall?\nHow will Joe Biden rank in C-Span's rankings of presidents?\nThis question resolves as the position ranking of Joe Biden in the next C-Span survey of historians which ranks presidents in order from best to worst, and includes Joe Biden. For the purpose of this question, we exclude all presidents that come after Biden. The ranking is determined by the final scores, rather than any intermediate scores used to determine the final score.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:12.528Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:50.229Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { @@ -45153,7 +45311,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/zackfriedman/2020/02/03/student-loan-debt-statistics/?sh=2341eaad281f),\nThere are 45 million borrowers who collectively owe nearly $1.6 trillion in student loan debt in the U.S. Student loan debt is now the second highest consumer debt category - behind only mortgage debt - and higher than both credit cards and auto loans.\nFrom [CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/24/student-loan-forgiveness-may-come-with-tax-bomb-heres-what-you-should-know.html),\nStudent loan forgiveness is looking more like a possibility under President-elect Joe Biden, but an unintended consequence may emerge unless Washington intervenes: a tax on loan forgiveness.\nBiden has proposed creating a new program that would offer borrowers $10,000 of student debt relief for every year of national or community service, up to five years.\nSens. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., have also said that the next president could wipe as much as $50,000 from borrowers’ balances via an executive order.\nThe US federal government can forgive people's student loans through the [Public Service Loan Forgiveness](https://studentaid.gov/manage-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/public-service) program. The [most recent data](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data) shows that the federal government forgave $347,935,412 for the month of September 2020.\nHow many billions of dollars of student loans will the US federal government forgive in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the total dollar amount that the US Federal Government forgives in student loans during 2021, in billions of dollars, as determined by data from the US Government, or credible media reports. Right now, you can find how much the federal government forgives by retrieving data [here](https://studentaid.gov/data-center/student/loan-forgiveness/pslf-data), downloading the spreadsheets, and summing the two entries titled \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible PSLF application\" and \"Total balance discharged for borrowers with an eligible TEPSLF application*\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:14.695Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:51.389Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { @@ -45172,7 +45330,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) asks whether conclusive evidence for extraterrestrial life will be found within our Solar System. As specified in that question, the extraterrestrial life must not have been put in place as a result of human activity. Conditional to a positive resolution, we ask where the organisms (under natural conditions, no probes moving them, etc.) live or lived. We consider the most commonly discussed options, and a few other possibilities. \n1--Venus. \n2--Mars. \n3--Europa. \n4--Ganymede. \n5--Another moon of Jupiter. \n6--Enceladus. \n7--Titan. \n8--Another moon of Saturn. \n9--A dwarf planet. \n10-An asteroid. \n11-Another place in the Solar System. \nResolution is ambiguous if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) does not resolve positive by 2050. If [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3834/will-any-conclusive-evidence-for-extraterrestrial-life-past-or-present-be-discovered-within-our-solar-system-by-2050/) resolves positive, the location of the natural environment will be assessed by scientific consensus (as judged by Metaculus administrators). If, by 2060, there is no such consensus, it resolves ambiguous. If several places would qualify, this question resolves as the first example discovered.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:16.817Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:52.777Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -45191,7 +45349,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [North Sentinel Islanders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sentinelese) are one of the world's last '[uncontacted peoples](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncontacted_peoples)': they have had extremely limited contact with the outside world, and have actively, violently refused attempts to approach them. The most recent attempt at outside contact by a Christian missionary, John Allen Chau, ended when the Sentinelese killed him on [17 November 2018](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/21/american-believed-dead-after-encounter-with-remote-indian-tribe-hostile-outsiders/). Indian authorities attempted to recover his body, but ultimately [abandoned those efforts](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/28/india-body-john-allen-chau-missionary-killed-by-sentinelese-tribe). Attempts at contact have been criticised on a number of fronts, including the likelihood that contact would expose the Sentinelese to deadly pathogens.\nThe Government of India requires a permit to visit the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, has outlawed all outsider visits to the North Sentinel Island, have designated a 3 mile exclusion zone around the island, and maintain an armed patrol of this exclusion zone in an attempt to prevent outside contact. Knowledge of Sentinelese culture is [extremely limited](https://www.jstor.org/stable/40646218). They are designated a '[Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061)', and estimates of the island's population vary widely. The [2001 census recorded 39 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20141211011020/http://censusindia.gov.in/Ad_Campaign/drop_in_articles/06-Enumeration_of_Primitive_Tribes_in_A%26N_Islands.pdf#page=3) (21 men, 18 women), the [2011 census recorded only 15 individuals](https://web.archive.org/web/20150801173328/http://www.censusindia.gov.in/2011census/dchb/3500_PART_B_DCHB_ANDAMAN%20%26%20NICOBAR%20ISLANDS.pdf) (12 men, 3 women), but both were conducted from a distance. A [2016 estimate](https://openlibrary.org/isbn/9789350981061) suggested between 100 and 150.\nWhen will the Sentinelese cease to be an uncontacted people?\nThis question resolves when any one of the following events occurs:\n1--A public video recording is made available that depicts a Sentinelese person legally interacting with a non-Sentinelese person (i.e. the non-Sentinelese person is not charged with an offense relating to the interaction); \n2--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has left North Sentinel Island; \n3--Two or more news sources report that a Sentinelese person has legally entered a UN member state; \n4--Two or more news sources report that there are no longer any people living on North Sentinel Island; or \n5--Two or more news sources report that the landmass known as 'North Sentinel Island' no longer exists. \nThe question will close retrospectively one day before the event which triggers resolution. The 'event' is understood to be the publication of the news report (or video).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:18.670Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:54.701Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 22, "resolution_data": { @@ -45210,7 +45368,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For a historical comparison, the first initiative proposing legalization of cannabis was in Calfornia in 1972. In 1996, California became the [first state to legalize medical use of cannabis.](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cannabis_in_California) Key figures involved in initiating the \"war on drugs\" have admitted they [lied](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) about important aspects of why that was initiated.\nPsilocybin is part of a family of substances illegal in a large majority of countries despite claims of substantial potential [benefits](https://www.healthline.com/health-news/benefits-of-medical-mushrooms) from a growing number of physicians and scientists.\nIf the US starts to move towards the legalization of psilocybin, this may be seen as an important [battle](https://voicesofdemocracy.umd.edu/buchanan-culture-war-speech-speech-text/) in the [\"Culture War\"](https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/the-cannabis-culture-wars/) going on in the United States.\nThis question asks: How many states will legalize medical or recreational use and distribution of psilocybin before 2045?\nRelated questions: [Will Oregon vote to legalize medical use of Psilocybin in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3121/will-oregon-vote-to-legalize-medical-use-of-psilocybin-in-2020/#comment-35324)\n[Votes for Oregon Psilocybin Program](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4804/votes-for-oregon-psilocybin-program/)\nResolution Criteria:\nThis question will be judges according to links to articles from the New York Times or Washington Post posted in the comment section.\nIf the US ceases to exist as a unified country with 50 states in the current territory of the 50 US states before 2045 this question will be judged as ambiguous. That would be the case for example if there is more than one UN member state in the present territory of the US or most of territory of a US state is ceded to Mexico or Canada.\nAdmission of additional states can be handled by just upping the current upper boundary.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:20.704Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:56.516Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -45229,7 +45387,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For the past 2 console generations (since the Wii in 2006), Nintendo has lagged behind competitors when it comes to the raw computational performance of their consoles and, more specifically, their output resolution (see [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eighth_generation_of_video_game_consoles#Comparison) for a comparison). Given that 4K output is quickly replacing 1080p HD as the standard resolution across a majority of devices, if Nintendo's next console does not support it, it may be seen by many consumers as a mark against the console.\nThis question resolves on the date an official Nintendo console capable of outputting video at at least 4K* resolution is released for general public consumption.\nPatents, announcements, and review units do not count.\n*4K in this case means at least 3840 x 2160 pixels.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:22.630Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:57.684Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -45248,7 +45406,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Related questions:\n[When will the 7-day moving average of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases first drop below 10% of a previous peak in the US? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4831/when-will-the-7-day-moving-average-of-daily-confirmed-covid-19-cases-first-drop-below-10-of-a-previous-peak-in-the-us/)\n[When will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 500?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6241/us-covid-19-deaths-below-500/)\nThis US is currently experiencing its third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. While vaccines are currently being rolled out at an increasing rate, the threat of the novel B.117 variant with increased infectiousness threatens to counteract those effects.\nAccording to the CDC, there have been no days since late March when the rolling 7 day average of COVID deaths has dropped below 100 in the US.\nWhen will the 7-day rolling average for US COVID-19 deaths drop below 100?\nThis question retroactively closes and resolves as the first date which the CDC reports the 7-day moving average of COVID deaths is less than 100 on [this page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends).\nIf the CDC is no longer updating this page, a suitable alternative resolution source will be found.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:26.069Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:23:58.876Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { @@ -45267,7 +45425,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Alphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr.\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine, their self-driving car subsidiary) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation at market close on 2030-01-01 in trillions of 2019USD, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/) in 2019 USD.\nPrices are to be adjusted from the prices of the latest available quarter to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nAlphabet Inc. has multiple share classes. In case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class C (ticker $GOOGL). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:28.006Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:00.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -45286,7 +45444,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Donald Trump is #339 in the [Forbes 400](https://www.forbes.com/forbes-400/) an authoritative list of the most wealthy Americans with a claimed net worth of $2.5 Billion.\nWhat will Donald Trump's net worth be in 2024?\nThis question will be resolved as the net worth attributed to Donald Trump by Forbes in Billions of US Dollars. If Donald Trump is no longer living it will resolved ambiguous. If Donald Trump is no longer on the Forbes 400 list, this question will resolve as <2.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:30.123Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:01.949Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { @@ -45305,7 +45463,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.\n[Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above. \nIf Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n*As judged by a metaculus admin.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:31.976Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:03.772Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -45335,7 +45493,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:33.814Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:05.285Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -45365,9 +45523,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:35.703Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:06.496Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-03-04T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -45386,18 +45544,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:38.012Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:07.860Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 204, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -45425,9 +45583,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:39.842Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:09.159Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 256, + "numforecasts": 257, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -45455,7 +45613,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:41.727Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:10.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -45485,7 +45643,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:43.843Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:12.283Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { @@ -45515,7 +45673,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:45.694Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:13.678Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { @@ -45545,9 +45703,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:47.871Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:14.931Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 135, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -45575,7 +45733,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:50.021Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:16.177Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 202, "resolution_data": { @@ -45594,7 +45752,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Joe Biden claims he will increase [the federal minimum wage to $15/hr](https://joebiden.com/empowerworkers/), a figure notably promoted by the [Fight for $15](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fight_for_$15) movement, up from its current value of $7.25/hr.\nThe $15 minimum wage movement has seen some successes on the local level, with [six states](https://www.vox.com/2019/3/28/18285346/maryland-passes-15-minimum-wage) having laws that will phase in a $15 minimum wage. Such a move is backed by the rest of the Democratic Party: the [Raise the Wage Act](https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/582/cosponsors?searchResultViewType=expanded&KWICView=false), which includes a $15 minimum wage, has 205 cosponsors in the House, all Democratic (and cleared the House in the 116th Congress).\nIf Biden is elected president in the 2020 election and takes office, will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024 in nominal US dollars per hour?\nThe minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf Joe Biden is not elected or does not take office, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:52.017Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:17.708Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 307, "resolution_data": { @@ -45613,7 +45771,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Guantanamo Bay detention camp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guantanamo_Bay_detention_camp) is a United States military prison located within Guantanamo Bay Naval Base, which is on an island on the coast of Guantánamo Bay in Cuba. The camp was established by US President George W. Bush's administration in 2002 during the War on Terror following the 9/11 attacks on the US. \nIndefinite detention without trial and torture led the operations of this camp to be considered a major breach of human rights by Amnesty International and a violation of Due Process Clause of the Fifth and Fourteenth amendments of the United States Constitution.\nPresident Bush's successor, President Barack Obama, promised that he would close the camp, but met strong bipartisan opposition from the US Congress, which passed laws to prohibit detainees from Guantanamo being imprisoned in the U.S. \nIn January 2018, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to keep the detention camp open indefinitely.\nIn February 2021, [the Biden Administration made it clear that it intends to shut down the facility.](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/12/politics/biden-guantanamo-bay/index.html) According to CNN:\nThe Biden administration intends to close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility, which houses approximately 40 prisoners, by the end of their term.\nWhen asked by a reporter during a press briefing on Friday if the prison would be closed by the time President Joe Biden leaves office, White House press secretary Jen Psaki said, \"That's certainly our goal and our intention.\"\nWhen will the US close the Guantanamo Bay detention camp?\nThis question resolves as the date that credible reports indicate that the detention camp has been permanently closed by the U.S. government.\nClosures that are intended to be temporary, e.g. for renovation, construction work, due to natural disasters, or for other reasons, do not count.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:53.845Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:19.490Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -45643,7 +45801,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:55.692Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:21.043Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 595, "resolution_data": { @@ -45662,7 +45820,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2022-01-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:20:59.681Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:22.293Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -45692,7 +45850,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:01.714Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:23.661Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 220, "resolution_data": { @@ -45711,7 +45869,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:03.683Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:24.881Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 141, "resolution_data": { @@ -45730,7 +45888,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$.\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2021 US$. A similar question for 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4722/what-will-the-total-deal-value-be-of-all-the-us-private-equity-deals-in-billions-of-us-in-2020/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:05.684Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:26.217Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { @@ -45760,9 +45918,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:07.641Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:27.454Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -45779,7 +45937,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Death is, perhaps, the last great enemy to be felled. All living things, including all ≈100 billion humans, either have died or will die. All the while, technology and medicine have been improving, life expectancies and infant mortality have made massive gains in the past 100 years, and infectious diseases (less one glaring example) have been decimated. Some may not find it so far-fetched to try to take on death and aging itself.\nHowever, this presents a unique and extremely difficult problem to the modern medical field. Human bodies are made of trillions of cells, each either being replaced via mitosis that, over time, accumulates errors and mutations, or slowly decaying and receiving damage from the environment. Those who would try to bring the end of aging face the task of keeping trillions of cells and 600 AU of DNA per person undamaged and complete... across a population of billions.\nAttempting immortality, even without somehow preventing death via accident or violence, is an even less likely goal.\nGiven the monumental range of possible answers, though, I don't expect this question to resolve at any point in Metaculus's existence. Again, it's more of a read on how likely people think it is that immortality is possible.\nWhen will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?\nThis question resolves on the date which the oldest living person is 30 years older than any previous record for the oldest person in the last 40 years. In other words, when the rate of \"oldest person to have lived\" increases at a rate greater than 0.75 years per year, over a 40 year period.\nFor example, suppose on Dec 10, 2060, someone reaches the age of 152 years and 165 days. this would be 30 years more than the record held by Jeanne Calment on Dec 10, 2020. the resolution date would be Dec 10, 2060.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:09.446Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:28.685Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -45798,7 +45956,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[3 million extra people](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) were employed in the US healthcare and social services industries between 2011 and 2019 to a total of approximately 22 million people, making the healthcare industry the [largest employer](https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2020/10/health-care-still-largest-united-states-employer.html) across the United States. However, with the onset of COVID-19, employment in healthcare fell 7.8% from February to April 2020. \nHealth-based employment fell primarily across office based jobs, with the greatest effects seen by dentists’ offices at unemployment rates [over 50%](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). As the possibility of tele-health [becomes more available](https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/telehealth-growth-attracts-eyes-investors-2021-could-see-influx-capital) with changes in the market from COVID-19, these downward trends in growth [could continue](https://www.marketplace.org/2020/10/08/covid19-pandemic-some-jobs-health-care-decline-telemedicine-administrative-services-elective-surgeries/) for office-based health care jobs. \nWhile unemployment increased throughout the sector, it fell most hard upon women, who saw unemployment levels in office jobs [peak at 11.2%, compared to 6.8% for men](https://www.healthsystemtracker.org/chart-collection/what-impact-has-the-coronavirus-pandemic-had-on-healthcare-employment/#item-unemployment-rate-among-healthcare-workers-by-gender-may-2019-and-may-2020). For hospital workers, who were required more for in-person care during the pandemic, unemployment remained roughly the same.\nHow many people will be employed in the US healthcare/social assistance industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:11.473Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:30.013Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -45817,7 +45975,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn June 2020, Lyft announced [plans to electrify 100% of its fleet by 2030](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/leading-the-transition-to-zero-emissions).\nA month before, the California Air Resources Board had floated targets requiring 70-80% of miles driven by both Lyft and Uber in the state be in EV's by 2030, though in July, this number was [lowered to 60%](https://www.kqed.org/science/1967315/california-dials-back-plan-to-require-uber-lyft-go-electric).\nLyft's own announcement is non-binding, but it conveys an intention to electrify beyond what the state of California may require:\nThe shift to 100% electric vehicles (EVs) for Lyft will mean transitioning all vehicles used on the Lyft platform over the next ten years to all-electric or other zero-emission technologies. This includes cars in the Express Drive rental car partner program for rideshare drivers, our consumer rental car program for riders, our autonomous vehicle program, and drivers’ personal cars used on the Lyft platform.\nIf the company follows through on its public statement, the impact on air pollution could be significant. [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) reports:\nResearch suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination. \nSince 2019, Lyft has offered a [green mode in several cities](https://www.lyft.com/blog/posts/making-cities-more-liveable-with-electric-vehicles). In its new [Path to Zero Emissions plan](https://lyft-impact-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/images/path-to-zero-emissions.pdf), the company outlines the steps it plans to take to increase the supply and lower the cost of EV's and their charging infrastructure, as well as lobby for policy change in support of expanding the EV ecosystem. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nIn order to track the Lyft's electrification progress, this question asks: When will Lyft electrify 80% of its fleet?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Lyft’s own data and announcements will suffice. \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---A related question for Uber is [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5537/uber-at-50-electric/). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:13.414Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:31.248Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -45836,7 +45994,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n---[Will artificial superintelligence precede the achievement of longevity escape velocity?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4788/will-artificial-superintelligence-precede-the-achievement-of-longevity-escape-velocity-if-it-is-ever-achieved/) \n---[Will longevity escape velocity follow the development of effective life extending therapies?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3795/will-longevity-escape-velocity-follow-the-development-of-effective-life-extending-therapies/) \n---[When will biological lifespans increase faster than 0.75 years per year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5852/date-when-lifespan-increases-075-yrsyr/) \n[Wikipedia: Longevity escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity) --\nIn the life extension movement, longevity escape velocity (LEV) or actuarial escape velocity[2] is a hypothetical situation in which life expectancy is extended longer than the time that is passing. For example, in a given year in which longevity escape velocity would be maintained, technological advances would increase life expectancy more than the year that just went by.\nFor many years in the past, life expectancy at each age has increased slightly every year as treatment strategies and technologies have improved. At present, more than one year of research is required for each additional year of expected life. Longevity escape velocity occurs when this ratio reverses, so that life expectancy increases faster than one year per one year of research, as long as that rate of advance is sustainable.\nWhen will a country reach longevity escape velocity, i.e. sustained increase of life expectancy of at least 1?\nThis question resolves when average [life expectancy at 10-years old](https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#it-is-not-only-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-by-age) sees a continuous increase of at least 1 year per year over a 5-year period.\n--- \nSustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X).\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the average life expectancy at 10-years old exceeds 85.0 years over the 5-year period. Moreover, the country must have at least 1M citizens during this period.\n--- \nPositive resolution requires that the life expectancy in each of the years over the 5-year period exceeds the recorded all-time maximum. This requirement eliminates the chance of spurious resolutions stemming from a recovery of a disruptive drop in lifespans.\nIf it is unclear what particular month-day the question should resolve, it resolves as Jan 1st of the relevant year.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:15.388Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:32.539Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { @@ -45866,7 +46024,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:17.071Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:33.992Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { @@ -45896,7 +46054,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:19.038Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:35.439Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -45915,7 +46073,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 50,000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik8 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 100MB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe bits-per-character (the number of bits required per character) for compression of enwiki8 is the de-facto measurement unit for Hutter Prize compression progression. In 2016, the state of the art was set at 1.313 bits-per-character using [Suprisal-Driven Zoneout](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/e9bc/83f9ff502bec9cffb750468f76fdfcf5dd05.pdf?_ga=1.27297145.452266805.1483390947), a regularization method for RNN.\nWe ask:\nIn what year will a language model generate sequences with less than 1.0 bits-per-character on the enwik8 dataset?\nResolution occurs when a method achieves less than 1.0 bits-per-character.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:21.087Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:36.784Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { @@ -45934,7 +46092,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for March 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:22.908Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:38.052Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { @@ -45964,7 +46122,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:24.693Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:39.397Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 238, "resolution_data": { @@ -45983,7 +46141,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the main measures the UK government has taken against the COVID-19 pandemic is a series of restrictions on social gatherings. Some of these restrictions have been legally enforceable, while others have just been guidance. In particular, the law and guidance has variously restricted the size of social gatherings, the location (indoors or outdoors), who can attend, and the distance that should be kept between people.\nWhen will government guidance allow indoor parties of any 100 people in England?\nThis question resolves when it is no longer against the law or government guidance for any 100 people in England to meet socially (for non-essential purposes) in a private place indoors with no physical distancing between people and no face coverings being worn.\n'Any 100 people in England' implies that the question should not resolve if only people in a fixed 'bubble' can meet, or if there are any restrictions on travel between parts of England, or if only people with negative tests or who have been vaccinated can have such parties. It should obviously ignore cases such as prisoners who are not allowed to meet others.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:26.681Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:40.652Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 117, "resolution_data": { @@ -46013,7 +46171,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:28.621Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:42.821Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -46032,7 +46190,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring countries from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. 22 countries scored above 8 and so were considered \"Full democracies.\"\nThe 4 categories are:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nHow many countries will be considered \"full democracies\" (score higher than 8) by The Economist* in 2021?*\nThis prediction resolves as the number of countries (or other polities) being categorized by The Economist as \"Full democracies\" for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in the early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:30.306Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:44.658Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -46062,7 +46220,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:32.526Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:46.361Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 507, "resolution_data": { @@ -46092,7 +46250,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:36.512Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:47.671Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { @@ -46122,7 +46280,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:38.304Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:48.926Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 199, "resolution_data": { @@ -46141,7 +46299,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe role of solar powered energy as a power source has grown in prominence over the past decade, fueled predominantly by dropping prices. \nIn 1987, global prices fell to under [$10/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices) for the first time and by 2019, were at just [$0.38/W](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices). This rapid decrease in price was accompanied by a large increase in solar PV cumulative capacity, which increased from 651.34 megawatts in 2000 to [586,421.29 megawatts by 2019](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy). Between 2018 and 2019 alone, solar power generation at a world level increased almost [25%](https://ourworldindata.org/renewable-energy), its slowest rate of growth since 2000. \nAs solar energy becomes increasingly more efficient and cost friendly, we could see it take larger predominance as a form of carbon-free energy to power the world’s growing energy needs. \nPredictions should represent the global average for solar PV module prices in 2021 in US$ per Watt.\nWhat will be the global average cost for a solar PV module in 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from Our World in Data’s chart on [Solar PV module prices](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:40.184Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:50.133Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -46160,7 +46318,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every year The Economist publishes the \"Democracy Index,\" scoring entities (166 countries, plus Hong Kong) from 0 to 10 based on five criteria (electoral process & pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). The most recent report is for 2019, and includes scores for 167 countries. Norway scores the highest at 9.87, and North Korea is last at 1.08. The global average is 5.44.\nThe numerical scores are also grouped into 4 categories:\n--- \nFull democracies (8-10]; 22 countries in 2019\n--- \nFlawed democracies (6-8]; 54 countries in 2019\n--- \nHybrid regimes (4-6]; 37 countries in 2019\n--- \nAuthoritarian regimes ([0-4]; 54 countries in 2019\nWhat will the global average Democracy Index score be for 2021?\nThis prediction resolves as the raw, unweighted arithmetic mean of all scores as assigned by The Economist for its report covering 2021. (I expect this to be published sometime in early 2022.) Note that not everything that gets a score is a full-fledged sovereign state. Data can be found at the Economist Intelligence Unit's website ([here's 2019](https://www.eiu.com/public/topical_report.aspx?campaignid=democracyindex2019), probably gated) and at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:42.234Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:51.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -46173,25 +46331,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:44.512Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 74, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the US supreme court change size by 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3617/will-the-us-supreme-court-change-size-by-2050/", @@ -46209,9 +46348,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:46.766Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:52.588Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 208, + "numforecasts": 209, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46222,6 +46361,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6518/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark--of-gpu/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Most modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on February 14, 2023?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two GPUs by price performance, on February 14, 2023, 11:59PM GMT, amongst \"currently available\" GPUs according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted from the latest reported quarter's prices to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:53.763Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 74, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-02-13T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-04-14T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-04-13T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will any of these Reddit alternatives be more popular than Reddit by 2026?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4882/will-any-of-these-reddit-alternatives-be-more-popular-than-reddit-by-2026/", @@ -46239,7 +46397,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:48.818Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:55.222Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { @@ -46269,7 +46427,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:50.509Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:24:56.383Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 149, "resolution_data": { @@ -46288,7 +46446,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On June 29th 2020, Reddit admins [announced](https://www.reddit.com/r/announcements/comments/hi3oht/update_to_our_content_policy/) a new policy banning hate speech from their website. Compared to what existed prior, the policy allows the admins to ban subreddits with greater discretion.\n[/r/themotte](https://www.reddit.com/r/TheMotte/) is a subreddit started by readers of the blog [SlateStarCodex](https://slatestarcodex.com/) after its writer Scott Alexander [indicated](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/22/rip-culture-war-thread/) he was unsatisfied with the reception of the so-called Culture War thread on /r/slatestarcodex. The culture war thread moved to /r/themotte thereafter. In the context of the recent policy announcement on Reddit, some have speculated that the subreddit /r/themotte may now be banned. When will this happen?\nIf /r/themotte is not banned from Reddit by 2026-1-1, this quesiton resolves as \"> 2025-12-31\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:52.493Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:00.472Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -46307,9 +46465,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:54.277Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:02.165Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46326,7 +46484,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-energy-consumption-by-region), a total of 333.05 terawatt-hours of solar solar photovoltaics energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much solar photovoltaics energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of solar energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 333.05 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:56.107Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:03.624Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 153, "resolution_data": { @@ -46345,7 +46503,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [228 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](https://awesome-table.com/-L1TTxtnoRIENQZ48vAe/view?filterK=Broiler). \nWhen will at least 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending no later than 2030?\nResolution\nCompanies need to commit to removing the poultry that are not produced in line with GAP's standards for broiler chickens from their supply chains. This resolves as the date when at least 750 companies pledge to adhere to having supply chains consistent with GAP's welfare standards within a timeline that ends in or before the year 2030. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in or before the year 2030.\nThis question resolves as > Dec 31, 2030 if fewer than 750 companies pledge to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic Global Animal Partnership standards for broiler chickens by end of 2030.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:21:59.963Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:06.824Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { @@ -46364,7 +46522,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:01.766Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:08.069Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 150, "resolution_data": { @@ -46377,55 +46535,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.33, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6699999999999999, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:03.565Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 96, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:05.362Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 297, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Riemann Hypothesis be proved true, if it is proved by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6365/riemann-h-proved-true-if-settled-by-2100/", @@ -46443,9 +46552,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:07.259Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:10.001Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-27T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46456,6 +46565,55 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the SOO Green Renewable Rail project succeed?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2729/will-the-soo-green-renewable-rail-project-succeed/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "One of the biggest challenges for renewable energy deployment is how to get power from where it is best produced to where it is most needed. In the USA, the best regions for wind and solar production are in the West, the Southwest, and the Plains Midwest. The area of most need is the Northeast.\nMany different technologies (batteries, conventional electric grid buildout, H2 storage) are relevant to this problem. One such entrant is high-voltage DC transmission lines (HVDC), which have high efficiency over long distances. Unfortunately, building new overhead lines meets stiff resistance from landowners and NIMBY stakeholders.\nThe [Soo Green Renewable Rail project](http://www.soogreenrr.com/project-overview/innovation/) will attempt to solve for these issues by building out HVDC cables buried underground along railroad rights-of-way. The first planned project will lay 347 miles of cable from Mason City, Iowa to Plano, Illinois.\nSo we ask: Will the first SOO Green Renewable Rail project complete and succeed before 2035?\nDefinitions of success:\n--- \nThere is a buried HVDC cable of length at least 150 miles running from a location in Iowa to a location in Illinois.\n--- \nThis cable is developed and installed by the Soo Green Renewable Rail organization, or a successor, partner, subsidiary, or spinoff.\n--- \nAt some instant before 2035 the cable must be transmitting at least 1000MW of power over a distance of 150 miles or more.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.33, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.6699999999999999, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:11.653Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 96, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-04-29T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-04-27T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-15T20:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Drake's Equation 4th parameter f_l: On what fraction of habitable planets does any form of life emerge?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1340/drakes-equation-4th-parameter-f_l/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "This is the fourth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the fourth parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of suitable planets (see some discussion at the [relevant question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1339/drakes-equation-question-set-what-is-the-average-number-of-habitable-planets-per-star/)) on which life actually appears. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nMost estimates assume abiogenesis to be the mechanism by which life appears on a suitable planet, but panspermia and other means merit considering. Again the possibility of alternative biochemistries should be weighed in your answer.\nThe lower bound because there is no clear source of a lower limit on this number.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:13.068Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 297, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-08-22T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-09-07T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2118-09-07T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Will Kim Jong-un still be the de facto leader of North Korea on 1 January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3445/will-kim-jong-un-still-be-the-de-facto-leader-of-north-korea-on-1-january-2022/", @@ -46473,9 +46631,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:11.391Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:14.393Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1269, + "numforecasts": 1273, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-08T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46492,7 +46650,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[A human mission to Mars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_mission_to_Mars) has been the subject of science fiction, aerospace engineering and scientific proposals since the 20th century. Plans include landing on Mars for exploration at a minimum, with the possibility of sending settlers and terraforming the planet or exploring its moons Phobos and Deimos also considered.\nDue to orbital mechanics a human Mars mission would need to last many months or even years. Therefore, besides engineering challenges a human psychology and group dynamics becomes an important issue for the mission planning.\nThis question asks:\nHow big will the first crew sent to Mars be?\nThe question will resolve on the launch day based on how many people boarded the spacecraft aiming for Mars. The success of the mission is not relevant to the question resolution, but the mission must be credible. \nRelated questions:\n---[Will SpaceX land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/349/will-spacex-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Will NASA land people on Mars prior to 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1476/will-nasa-land-people-on-mars-prior-to-2030/) \n---[Who will first land a person on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3214/who-will-first-land-a-person-on-mars/) \n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:13.457Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:16.038Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { @@ -46511,7 +46669,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2021?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2021, as reported by the FDA or credible media.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:15.172Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:17.292Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { @@ -46541,7 +46699,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:16.926Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:18.726Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -46571,9 +46729,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:19.046Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:19.933Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 115, + "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46601,7 +46759,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:21.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:21.210Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -46614,6 +46772,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:22.374Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 155, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Before 2023, will the United States CDC recommend that those who have already been vaccinated for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) be vaccinated again due to a mutation in the virus?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6008/united-stated-cdc-to-recommend-revaccination/", @@ -46631,9 +46808,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:23.073Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:23.828Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 273, + "numforecasts": 274, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46644,32 +46821,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will an AI defeat one of the top-10 StarCraft 2 players?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3272/date-ai-defeats-top-10-starcraft-2-players/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In January the StarCraft 2 playing AI, Alphastar, [defeated professional players 10-1](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphastar-mastering-real-time-strategy-game-starcraft-ii). \nThis was certainly a major acheivement and milestone. However, there was a question of whether the AI won only due to its ability to learn the game and make intelligent decisions, or also because of the physical limitations of the human opponent.\nThe Google Deepmind team decided to limit Alphastar to a \"max of 22 agent actions per 5 seconds\", which is a rough equivalent to the fastest human players. They have [recently announced](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning) that Alphastar has reached the 'Grandmaster' league - the top 200 players on [Battle.net](http://Battle.net)'s European server.\nVery impressive, but when will its abilities exceed those of the best humans?\nWhen will an AI defeat one of the world's top ten players in a formal match?\n---The AI must be under Alphastar's current constraints, or stricter. I.e. it can make up to 22 \"agent actions\"* over any five second span. \n---The match must be in the typical format of professional tournaments: three or more games on different maps. The maps must be official Blizzard ladder maps. Alphastar and its opponent can play any race. \n---Whether the player is \"top ten\" will be determined by their ranking on [gosugamers.net](https://www.gosugamers.net/starcraft2/rankings) on the day of the match. If that site cannot be used for whatever reason, another credible Elo ranking system can be used. \n---If the validity of the match is disputed by Blizzard, it does not count. \nIf positively resolved, closes retroactively 1 hour prior to the beginning of the match in which the defeat occurs.\n*Defined at the very end of [Deepmind's announcement](https://www.deepmind.com/blog/article/AlphaStar-Grandmaster-level-in-StarCraft-II-using-multi-agent-reinforcement-learning)\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:25.139Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-11-17T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2026-10-31T22:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2026-11-30T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will One Piece end?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4963/when-will-one-piece-end/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "It has just been announced that after 23 years in publication the [best-selling comic series of all time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_comic_series) is [nearing its end](https://mothership.sg/2019/11/one-piece-ending/#:~:text=Long%2Drunning%20manga%20One%20Piece,will%20end%20in%20five%20years.).\nSo when will the last manga issue of the main [One Piece](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Piece) story (excluding any spinoffs and sequels) be published?\nThis question resolves when [Eiichiro Oda](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eiichiro_Oda) (or whoever is named as his successor) confirms that the last chapter of the story has been published in [Weekly Shōnen Jump magazine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weekly_Sh%C5%8Dnen_Jump) (or whichever magazine is publishing One Piece at the time).\nThis question will resolve as 'ambiguous' if one of the following criteria are met: Oda (or whoever is writing one piece at the time) decides to split the story in two without clarifying what the main story is (e.g separating the main protagonist and the rest of the supporting cast without resolving all their stories on the same date). Oda dies and two different people begin writing and publishing different endings to One Piece. Oda gives up on writing the finale and no-one writes it in his place.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:26.821Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:25.032Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -46699,7 +46857,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:28.826Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:26.445Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 325, "resolution_data": { @@ -46729,7 +46887,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:30.752Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:27.621Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { @@ -46759,7 +46917,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:32.496Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:28.817Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { @@ -46789,9 +46947,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:34.347Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:30.964Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 200, + "numforecasts": 201, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46808,7 +46966,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is a duplicated question of [Giving What We Can memberships on 2029-11-15 ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3342/how-many-members-will-giving-what-we-can-have-on-its-20th-anniversary/#comment-55694), with an extended upper-bound.\nToday marks the [10th anniversary](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/post/2019/11/celebrating-10-years-of-giving-what-we-can/) of [Giving What We Can](https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/), a community of people who have pledged to donate at least 10% of their income to the most cost-effective charities. During these ten years, 4,343 members have collectively donated $126,751,939.\nThis question asks: How many members will Giving What We Can have at the end of the day of its 20th anniversary (November 15, 2029)?\nThe question resolves according to official GWWC figures. If the organization ceases to exist in the meantime, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:36.038Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:32.103Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -46827,7 +46985,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [Bering Strait crossing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing) is a hypothetical bridge and/or tunnel spanning the relatively narrow and shallow Bering Strait between the Chukotka Peninsula in Russia and the Seward Peninsula in the U.S. state of Alaska. The bridge/tunnel would provide a connection linking North America and Eurasia. \nAccording to the [dedicated Wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bering_Strait_crossing#21st_century), various proposals have been made to build such a crossing:\nAccording to a report in the Beijing Times in May 2014, Chinese transportation experts are proposing building a roughly 10,000 kilometer (6,213 mi)-long high-speed rail line from northeast China to the United States. The project would include a tunnel under the Bering Strait and connect to the contiguous United States via Canada.\nSeveral American entrepreneurs have advanced private-sector proposals, such as an Alaska-based limited liability company founded in 2010 to lobby for a cross-straits connection and a 2018 cryptocurrency offering to fund the construction of a tunnel.\nWhen will a Bering Strait crossing be completed\nResolution\nThis question resolves when any land link (a bridge or a tunnel) is created, and is carrying traffic before December 31st, 2035 (whether highly restricted traffic or open to the public). \nThis question resolves as >2040 if the project is not completed before 2040.\nThe type of traffic also doesn't matter. It could be motor vehicles, trains, a hyperloop, or pedestrian traffic, etc. \nThe exact location of the link also doesn't matter. For completeness sake, let's say:\n---It ultimately connects a part of mainland Alaska to a part of Mainland Russia \n---The link is contained within a distance of 500 miles of Little Diomede Island \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:38.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:33.815Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -46857,9 +47015,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:40.854Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:35.017Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 212, + "numforecasts": 213, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -46876,7 +47034,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "US Electric Vehicle (EV) sales have fluctuated greatly, with battery electric vehicles (BEV) sales increasing [3% from 2018-2019](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales decreasing approximately 30% in the same time frame. A decrease in PHEV sales makes sense as battery technology, range, and charging infrastructure becomes better, however, these changes have not been met by increases in BEV sales to a similar level. \nTotal vehicle sales in the United States dipped during the last Great Recession but have risen again to just over [17 million in 2019](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/). In 2019, the percentage of BEV and PHEV sales out of total car sales was just under 2%, at [(327,970/17,053,566)*100], according to [Car Sales Base](https://carsalesbase.com/).\nReports from BCG estimate that global EV sales will take [30% of the market share by 2025](https://www.bcg.com/en-us/publications/2020/drive-electric-cars-to-the-tipping-point), and 51% by 2030. As the US lags behind in adoption levels, it will remain to be seen how quickly the market share of EVs grows in comparison to the rest of the world.\nWhen will US EV sales equal or exceed 10% of the number of US ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) sales within a year?\nResolution criteria will be provided through Car Sales Base and their US data on [total car sales](https://carsalesbase.com/united-states-sales-data-market/) and [total EV sales](https://carsalesbase.com/us-car-sales-analysis-2019-ev-phev/), which make up the combined numbers of BEV and PHEV sales. If data is no longer available, total car sales can be obtained through the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0) and EV sales through other reputable sources with previous historical data provided. If no data is available or reported through any medium, this question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:42.906Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:36.245Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -46895,7 +47053,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2022-01-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:45.157Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:38.296Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { @@ -46914,7 +47072,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2014, Bill Gates prognosticated that the world would see its first trillionaire within 15 years. Well, as of this writing we're 4 years in.\nInternational bank, Credit Suisse, meanwhile, predicts that we'll see around [11 trillionaires](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/10808915/World-could-see-first-trillionaire-in-25-years.html) within 2 generations.\nOthers speculate that bitcoin's mystery founder, Satoshi Nakamoto, might [claim the title](https://mashable.com/2017/12/12/bitcoin-satoshi-trillionaire/).\nDespite the fact that Amazon's Jeff Bezos is [nearing the $100B mark](https://www.theguardian.com/inequality/2017/dec/19/when-will-we-see-the-worlds-first-trillionaire-jeff-bezos-bill-gates), we're not yet nearing $1T territory.\nWhat do you think? When will we cross the threshold? \nFor a positive result, an individual must be ranked on [Forbes' Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/sites/kerryadolan/2017/03/20/forbes-2017-billionaires-list-meet-the-richest-people-on-the-planet/#7409483862ff) with a net worth of at least $1,000 billion. \n(Fine print: if the Forbes list ceases, other credible and multiply-sources estimates of a trillion-dollar net worth for an individual person can be accepted. The trillion can be in contemporary dollars, i.e. very high inflation could also help bring this about.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:47.280Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:39.525Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 367, "resolution_data": { @@ -46933,7 +47091,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2030-12-13, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2030-12-13, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices. Specifically, prices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:49.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:40.828Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { @@ -46952,7 +47110,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient),\nIn economics, the Gini coefficient, sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. [...]\nA Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality, where all values are the same (for example, where everyone has the same income). A Gini coefficient of one (or 100%) expresses maximal inequality among values [...]\nThe Gini coefficient is usually defined mathematically based on the Lorenz curve, which plots the proportion of the total income of the population (y axis) that is cumulatively earned by the bottom x of the population. The line at 45 degrees thus represents perfect equality of incomes. The Gini coefficient can then be thought of as the ratio of the area that lies between the line of equality and the Lorenz curve over the total area under the line of equality.\nThe World Bank tracks the Gini coefficient for income in India. See [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=IN). The most recent data is for 2011, with a coefficient of 35.7.\nThis question asks, what will be the Gini coefficient for income in India in 2030 (in percentage points)?\nIf the World Bank has not released data for 2030 by January 1st 2034 (the anticipated date of resolution) any reputable source can also be used for resolution.\nSimilar questions exist for [The US](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4968/what-will-be-the-gini-coefficient-for-income-in-the-united-states-in-2030/) and [China](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6775/gini-coeff-for-china-2030/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:52.223Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:42.019Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 17, "resolution_data": { @@ -46971,7 +47129,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Much has been written about the possibility of artificial intelligence (AI) and its potential to conduct scientific research on its own. Furthermore, machine learning language models such as GPT-3 have been trained on a corpus of fiction and non-fiction writing.\nAdditionally, there is much interest in the applications of computers towards proving mathematical theorems. While computer-aided proofs are commonplace, AIs have not yet cleared the intellectual hurdles of being listed as an author in a journal.\nWhen will a computer program be listed as a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the Annals of Mathematics?\nThis question resolves on the publication date for which a non-human, computer entity is listed as either the sole author or a coauthor on a peer-reviewed article in the journal the Annals of Mathematics. For the purposes of this question, any underlying computer program (including expectation maximization) may be employed, so long as it's listed as an author.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:53.944Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:43.198Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { @@ -46990,7 +47148,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life) is hypothetical life which may occur outside of Earth. Such life might range from simple prokaryotes (or comparable life forms) to beings with civilizations far more advanced than humanity.\nSince the mid-20th century, [active ongoing research has taken place to look for signs of extraterrestrial life](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extraterrestrial_life#Scientific_search). This encompasses a search for current and historic extraterrestrial life, and a narrower search for extraterrestrial intelligent life. Depending on the category of search, methods range from the analysis of telescope and specimen data to radios used to detect and send communication signals. \nThis question asks: When will the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life take place?\nThis question resolves as the date on which the first discovery of evidence of extraterrestrial life takes place. This can be evidence of past or present extraterrestrial life, and the life can be of any degree of complexity. The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans; e.g. sending Earth-originating life to Mars (even accidentally) does not count.\nTo qualify for a positive resolution, the discovery must be generally considered credible by the scientific community, as judged by Metaculus.\nChangelog:\n---2020-09-16: the sentence \"The life must not have originated from Earth or human efforts\" was changed to \"The life must not owe its off-Earth presence to humans\". \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:56.109Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:44.437Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 232, "resolution_data": { @@ -47009,7 +47167,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Billion_Americans) is a book by [Matthew Yglesias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Yglesias), first published in 2020. \nOne Billion Americans argues for a variety of programs, including increased government spending on child care and day care, the use of S-trains for urban transportation, and increased immigration to the United States, under the general rubric of increasing the American population. It suggests that a substantial increase to the population of the United States is necessary to perpetuate American hegemony. The book gives special attention to housing policy, critiquing zoning requirements that limit urban density in American cities.\nAs of January 2021, [the US population is estimated to be approximately 330,779,000.](https://www.census.gov/popclock/)\nYou can view [historical US population data since 1935 here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States#Vital_statistics)\nWhen will there be at least one billion Americans?\nThis question resolves as the earliest date when at least one billion persons are estimated to live in the United States, according to the US Census Bureau.\nIf the question does not resolve before January 1, 2121, it resolves as \"After January 1, 2121.\"\nIf no estimate from the Census Bureau is available (or an estimate from an equivalent department of the US government), another credible source, such as the CIA World Factbook or United Nations will be used. This question resolves when any of these sources estimate that at least one billion persons live in the United States. If any of the listed sources cease to exist before the question resolves, Metaculus administrators may select new credible sources of information.\nThis question tracks the resident population (not just US citizens) of every state in the US, as well as territories within the contiguous US. In 2021, this means the 50 states as well as the District of Columbia, and the various American Indian reservations, but not Puerto Rico, American Samoa, etc.\n[Emulated people](https://ageofem.com/) shall be counted if they are included in the Census Bureau's typical (default) estimates of US residency. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:57.941Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:45.675Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -47028,9 +47186,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe CPI, or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. Complete CPI data is released [monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nUnderstanding the CPI is vitally important not only for investors, but also for people saving for retirement, or taking out loans on a mortgage or education. If the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, [goods will become more expensive in the future](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\nConsidered a cost-of-living index, however components like food and energy consumption can fluctuate widely by month, [so monitoring the core CPI (without including either of these factors) is often more stable](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509446&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). However, both the full CPI and the core CPI track each other when graphed over the long-run.\nOther Related Questions:\n[CPI-U January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5791/cpi-u-for-january-2021/)\n[CPI-U February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5792/cpi-u--change-for-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the seasonally adjusted CPI-U (less energy and food) for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through the [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/) through their reports on the CPI. These reports are also posted on [Econoday](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us) through their economic calendar. If data is not provided monthly by either of these sources, recorded either as M/M % change or the % change from month prior, the question will resolve ambiguously. The data must be seasonally adjusted as well.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:22:59.816Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:46.864Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 63, + "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -47047,7 +47205,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "With vaccines rolling out, there is now discussion of achieving \"herd immunity\" to COVID-19 in some locales, or even eventually globally. (Also, however, there are concerns that new variants may make this harder to achieve.)\nIt is, however, not necessary for COVID-19 to be eradicated for life to go more-or-less back to normal. For example, if the fatality rate for COVID-19 were to fall well below that of influenza, it would likely be considered just another (tragic) background disease worthy of attention but not widespread social or government action. This might happen by some combination widespread vaccination, or widespread disease-caused immunity, or evolution of the virus into a less virulent but more infectious strain that nonetheless confers some immunity to more virulent strains.\nIn this question we'll probe this possibility using the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate, with a threshold of 0.05%, half of the [generally quoted IFR for influenza](https://www.sciencealert.com/the-us-death-rate-for-covid-19-is-50-times-higher-than-the-flu). \nWhen (if ever) will the US COVID-19 infection fatality rate fall below 0.05%?\nThis will resolve if/when the [US IFR as calculated by COVID19 Projections](https://covid19-projections.com/estimating-true-infections-revisited/#implied-infection-fatality-rate-iifr) falls below 0.05%. (The late-2020 estimate from their method is ~0.5%.)\nIf data from COVID-19 Projections is not available another comparable data source using a very similar method may be used; if the data necessary to make such an estimate becomes unavailable (e.g. due to very little testing) prior to question resolving then question resolves as ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:01.769Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:48.044Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { @@ -47066,7 +47224,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US Labor Force is aging. As the population ages and social security flounders, more people over the age of 65 find themselves rejoining the workforce and entering the job market. \nThe [AARP](https://www.aarp.org/work/employers/info-2019/americans-working-past-65.html) finds that:\n“As of February 2019, more than 20 percent of adults over age 65 are either working or looking for work, compared with 10 percent in 1985, says the report from United Income, a financial planning and investment management company targeted to those ages 50 to 70. The study analyzed data from the Current Population Survey, a report compiled monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS expects the trend of older people working to continue, estimating that 13 million Americans age 65 and older will be in the labor force by 2024.”\nOldest workers over 65 years of age were disproportionately hit hardest by the economic downturn of the Coronavirus with a drop of 16.6% in employment levels. Health risks also affect older workers, forcing them to exit the workforce in efforts to protect against the harmful effects of the Coronavirus. \n“In April and May, workers aged 65 and older had higher unemployment rates than those between the ages of 25 and 54—a scenario that Johnson says is unique to this recession. Older workers' seniority had protected them in earlier downturns, leading to lower unemployment rates than their younger counterparts. Johnson believes the change is a sign of how the virus is affecting older workers' employment amid this recession. \"I think this is going to be a trend,\" he says.”\nHow many people 65+ will be employed in the US in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:03.505Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:49.229Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { @@ -47085,7 +47243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2019, [3,900 million tonnes](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview) of oil was demanded globally, with a net gap between demand and supply at 135 million tonnes. This follows a general upward trend in demand over the last forty years since 1980. \nThe onset of the pandemic in 2020 greatly affected demand for oil, dropping the price per barrel of US crude oil below [$40 dollars in April](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52382552). As of early February 2021, [prices across all producers](https://oilprice.com/) have risen to the fifties and sixties with OPEC prices at $60.28 and US WTI prices just below that at $58.43. \nHowever, experts from the [IEA](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) report that:\n“With a Covid-19 vaccine unlikely to ride to the rescue of the global oil market for some time, the combination of weaker demand and rising oil supply provides a difficult backdrop to the meeting of OPEC+ countries due to take place on 1 December. Our current balances, incorporating the quota increase of 2 mb/d included in the OPEC+ supply agreement, imply almost zero stock change in the first quarter of 2021. Unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing the market will make slow progress.”\nWhat will total oil demand globally be in 2021?\nPredictions should represent the total oil demand in millions of tonnes.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution will come from the IEA 2021 report which should be released sometime in 2022. An example report from 2020, with data from 2019, can be found [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-information-overview).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:05.190Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:50.449Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -47104,7 +47262,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to Forbes, five of the world's ten largest publicly-owned companies are Chinese, including the world's largest bank by total assets, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China. Despite promises for economic reform, only 3 out of 20 of the [largest Chinese companies by revenue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_Chinese_companies) are not owned by the government (usually through the SASAC). These are Ping An Insurance, Huawei, and Pacific Construction Group; in 2018, these companies had USD$359B of total revenue out of $3.7T for the top 20, or 9.7%.\nThis question aims to act as a barometer for the extent of privatization and restructuring (or lack thereof) occurring between now and 2035. It resolves on the release of Fortune's Global 500 2035 list, presumably mid-2036, as the revenue generated by state-owned enterprises as a percentage of the total revenue of the largest 20 Chinese-based companies. Currently, this percentage is 90.3%.\n'Chinese-based' includes mainland China, Hong Kong SAR and the Macau SAR, unless the latter two are not under the administration of the People's Republic of China by question resolution time.\n'State-owned' means that the company in question is majority-owned by a State Council institution (e.g China Investment Corporation, the SASAC of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Education), through a regional government, and/or indirect subsidiaries of any of these. If ownership is ambiguous or unclear due to a lack of information, the company is assumed to be private by default.\nIf the Fortune Global 500 list is not available, a credible alternative list of the largest Chinese companies by revenue may be used at the discretion of the moderators.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:07.104Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:51.760Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -47123,7 +47281,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The number of billionaires in the world has increased from 470 in 2000 to 2,095 in 2020, according to [Forbes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World%27s_Billionaires#Statistics). But it seems to be stagnating since 2017.\nHow many billionaires (in nominal USD) will there be in 2030?\nThis will resolve according to the number of billionaires in 2030 according to the [Forbes Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/billionaires/). If Forbes publishes multiple reports of billionaires, the greatest value in 2030 will be used.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if Forbes doesn't publish a list of billionaires for 2030. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:09.063Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:52.961Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 15, "resolution_data": { @@ -47136,13 +47294,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:54.428Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 257, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6613/population-of-blue-whales-in-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_whale): \nThe blue whale (Balaenoptera musculus) is a marine mammal belonging to the baleen whale suborder Mysticeti. Reaching a maximum confirmed length of 29.9 meters (98 feet) and weight of 173 tonnes (190 tons), it is the largest animal known to have ever existed. [...] The blue whale was once abundant in nearly all the oceans on Earth until the end of the 19th century. It was hunted almost to the point of extinction by whaling until the International Whaling Commission banned all hunting of blue whales in 1967. The International Whaling Commission catch database estimates that 382,595 blue whales were caught between 1868 and 1978. The global blue whale population is estimated to be 10,000–25,000, roughly 3–11% of the population size estimated in 1911.\nInteresting reference is also [IUCN Red List of Endangered Species](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/pdf/50226962/attachment)\nWhat will be the estimated population of blue whales on 2050-01-01?\nThe question will resolve according to most recent estimate from [IUCN](https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/2477/156923585), or the best source as determined by the Metaculus admins. The estimate will include all subspecies of blue whales. If only an interval will be given, the question resolves as the logarithmic center of the interval.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:11.084Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:55.593Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -47161,7 +47338,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The first human in space, Yuri Gagarin, orbited the Earth once on April 12 1961. The most recent successful manned launch delivered Sergey Prokopyev, Alexander Gerst, and Serena M. Auñón-Chancellor to the ISS as crew. Of the three only Gerst had already flown in space before, rendering Auñón-Chancellor and Prokopyev the most recent astronaut/cosmonaut as of 8 June 2018. Before their return they’re expected to orbit the Earth [almost 3000 times](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=(six+months+in+minutes)+%2F+International+Space+Station+orbital+period).\nIn the 57 years between Gagarin and Prokopyev/Auñón-Chancellor more than 550 people have flown to space. Cosmonauts, astronauts, taikonauts, even space tourists. \nCommercial space programs want to push that number significantly, either by providing the means (see [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com) or [SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com)) or the destination for prospective space travellers (see [Bigelow](https://www.bigelowspaceops.com)).\nBut when do you think there will have been 1000 humans in space?\nFor the purposes of this question we will only count people who have reached orbit. Sub-orbital flights are explicitly excluded.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:12.978Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:56.815Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 298, "resolution_data": { @@ -47174,32 +47351,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5910/covid-vaccines-approved-by-us-fda-by-june/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "As of 09 December, no COVID-19 vaccines have been approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The FDA is the national regulatory authority responsible for approving vaccines in the U.S. \nSo far, both Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna have filed requests for [emergency use authorization (EUA)](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/emergency-use-authorization-vaccines-explained) of their respective vaccine candidates after meeting the primary end points requested by the FDA for their phase III trials. Pfizer/BioNTech [filed on 20 November] ([https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pre…](https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-and-biontech-submit-emergency-use-authorization)) and Moderna [filed on 30 November](https://investors.modernatx.com/news-releases/news-release-details/moderna-announces-primary-efficacy-analysis-phase-3-cove-study). The FDA vaccine advisory committee is meeting on [10 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-10-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Pfizer/BioNTech candidate and will meet on [17 December](https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/advisory-committee-calendar/vaccines-and-related-biological-products-advisory-committee-december-17-2020-meeting-announcement) to consider whether to recommend an EUA for the Moderna vaccine candidate. If positive, EUAs by the FDA may occur shortly thereafter.\nIn a [press briefing on 09 December](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FlfW5nKtZ8I), OWS provided the following updates on other vaccine candidates in development: \n--- \nthe Johnson & Johnson vaccine candidate’s phase III trial has enrolled ~38,000 subjects and plans on completing its total enrollment of ~40,000 subjects in the next few days. If the initial readout on safety and efficacy data, expected to occur in early January, is positive then it is anticipated they will file for a FDA EUA in late January or early February.\n--- \nAstraZeneca/Oxford has a new phase III trial with ~18,000 subjects that is taking place in the U.S. and is intended to provide a clear outcome on safety and efficacy (this comes after a [series of missteps with its first phase III trial](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/08/business/covid-vaccine-oxford-astrazeneca.html). An initial readout is expected in late January and, if it is positive, an FDA EUA filing is expected in late February.\n--- \nNovavax is actively preparing to begin its phase III trial\n--- \nSanofi/GSK is in discussion with OWS to begin its phase III trial\nHow many COVID-19 vaccines will be approved by the U.S. FDA as of 30 June 2021?\nThe FDA [“Emergency Use Authorization,”](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/mcm-legal-regulatory-and-policy-framework/emergency-use-authorization#coviddrugs) page, which is regularly updated, will be consulted at the end of the day on 30 June 2021. If any COVID-19 vaccine candidates have received full FDA approval by then, they will of course also be considered.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:14.835Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 255, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-26T04:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-07-01T04:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6695/the-longest-stay-in-deep-space-by-2051/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Valeri Polyakov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Valeri_Polyakov) holds the record for the longest uninterrupted spaceflight in low earth orbit of 437 days. It was his second spaceflight to the Russian Mir station that began on 8 January 1994. Upon landing, Polyakov opted not to be carried the few feet between the Soyuz capsule and a nearby lawn chair, instead walking the short distance. In doing so, he wished to prove that humans could be physically capable of working on the surface of Mars after a long-duration transit phase.\nThe longest crewed deep space mission was [Apollo 17](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_17) with total duration of 12 and a half days and over 3 days on the lunar surface.\nWhat will be the longest uninterrupted stay in deep space at the end of 2050?\nWe will define human stay in deep space as the number of full days when a human is on trajectory leaving Earth [gravitational sphere of influence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sphere_of_influence_(astrodynamics)). So, starting from the initial burn, including presence in the interplanetary space and on the surface of other celestial bodies, until death, breaking to land on Earth or entering Earth orbit.\nRelated questions:\n---[When will the first humans land successfully on Mars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3515/when-will-the-first-humans-land-successfully-on-mars/) \n---[How big will the first crew sent to Mars be?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5277/the-first-martian-crew-size/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:16.547Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:57.986Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -47218,7 +47376,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.\nIt represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, or 30-day movement of (20 ÷ √12=) ± 5.77%.\nBetween 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available [here](http://www.cboe.com/products/vix-index-volatility/vix-options-and-futures/vix-index/vix-historical-data). Live-updated chart [here](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EVIX).\nThe question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is above 50.0, as per the daily updated [csv file](http://www.cboe.com/publish/scheduledtask/mktdata/datahouse/vixcurrent.csv) (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count.\nCompanion question:\n---[When will the VIX index fall below 20?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4833/when-will-the-vix-index-fall-below-20/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:18.417Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:25:59.228Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 112, "resolution_data": { @@ -47248,7 +47406,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:20.140Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:01.260Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -47278,7 +47436,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:22.310Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:02.652Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 101, "resolution_data": { @@ -47308,7 +47466,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:24.286Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:04.946Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -47327,7 +47485,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nOne important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. A proxy for their demand is the median wage of the professionals with those skills.\nIn the United States, as of 2019, the median wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists is $122,840 per year, according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nWhat will the median annual wage for Computer and Information Research Scientists be in the United states in 2029, in 2019 USD?\nThis question resolves as the median wage for \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" in the US for the year [year] according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nPrices are to be adjusted to mean 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S). For the purpose of this question, median wages for year 2029 reported by the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) are assumed to be given in the mean price level for 2029. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:28.243Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:06.389Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { @@ -47346,7 +47504,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 70 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [metaculus.com](http://metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 70.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:30.077Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:07.648Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 206, "resolution_data": { @@ -47376,7 +47534,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:32.061Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:08.805Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { @@ -47395,7 +47553,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Human infant learning integrates information across senses -- sight, sound, touch, etc. -- but current state of the art machine learning models usually use only one of these types. It remains to be seen whether integrating data across modes is necessary for achieving human-level intelligence.\nIn contemporary machine learning (ML) research, we are mostly interested in image, text, graph, and video data. State of the art models in each of these domains train only on inputs of that specific domain; let's call this uni-modal training. By extension, if a model were to train on two or more of these input types, while evaluating on only one, we'll call that multi-modal training with uni-modal evaluation. For the purposes of this question, we are only interested in uni-modal evaluation tasks, so robotics and driving benchmarks are out of the question.\nQuestion Description: When will a multi-modal trained model out-perform the previous state of the art on one of the following uni-modal benchmarks:\n1--[ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) \n2--[WikiText-103](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103) \n3--[Cityscapes](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes) \n4--Additional uni-modal benchmarks from [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) may be added to reflect trends in machine learning research. I will review [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) two and four years after this question opens to request that moderators add the two most popular benchmarks which have more new entries (since June 1, 2020) than at least two thirds of the above benchmarks. If one of the newly added benchmarks involves data of the same type as one of the above benchmarks (i.e. image classification, text, image segmentation), and has more new entries, then the old benchmark will be superseded, and removed from the list. \nResolution Condition: This question resolves as the first date on which one of the benchmarks above has a #1 ranked paper which sets the record using a multi-modal trained model. If no such paper is listed before 2030, then the question resolves as >01/01/2030.\nSpecifics and Caveats:\n1-- \nMulti-modal pre-training counts towards resolution. \n2-- \nFor text tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the image stream is used -- i.e. not just the audio stream.\n3-- \nFor image tasks, training on video counts if, and only if the audio stream is used -- i.e. not just the image stream.\n4-- \nIf [paperswithcode.com](http://paperswithcode.com) shuts down or permanently stops updating their data, then the question resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:33.892Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:10.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -47414,7 +47572,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nVarda, founded in 2020 and just beginning its seed stage, raised [$9 million dollars](https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/varda-ba64/company_financials) on December 9, 2020 in its quest to create products in space for terrestrial applications. Manufacturing in space allows for the production of goods and materials that require different laws of physics. To take advantage of that, the company [expects to produce](https://fiftyyears.substack.com/p/varda-space-industries) high value and sensitive materials like fiber optic cables, 3D printed organs, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, or carbon nanotubes. The presence of investors in this market signals that the idea of space manufacturing is not only financially viable in the future, but could occur faster than we might think. \nAs of now, it still remains difficult to launch things into orbit, with [average costs](https://www.axios.com/varda-space-9-million-manufacturing-space-0b9970c4-4394-4e61-a0a1-c4980e12acf9.html) ranging upwards of tens of millions of dollars. However, as [more development](https://techcrunch.com/2020/12/08/space-manufacturing-startup-varda-incubated-at-founders-fund-emerges-with-9-million-in-funding/) goes into the creation of rockets through companies like SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Rocket Lab, prices should decrease making access more available for other companies like Varda to send things into, and stay to develop them, in space. \nPredictions should reflect the date that is reported for the first sale of any space-made product by Varda.\nWhen will Varda successfully manufacture and sell its first product from space?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source, including Varda itself.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:35.606Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:11.175Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -47427,25 +47585,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"> Oct 2, 2035\".\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:37.409Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 83, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a Nobel Prize for Economic Science be awarded for MMT before 2041-01-01?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6028/nobel-prize-for-mmt-by-2041/", @@ -47463,9 +47602,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:39.263Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:12.560Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -47476,13 +47615,51 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale in the United States?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3192/when-will-the-milk-of-cows-whose-dna-is-intentionally-altered-to-be-hornless-be-for-sale-in-the-united-states/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Horns of cows are removed because they can pose a risk to livestock handlers, other animals and to the bearers of the horns themselves (horns are sometimes caught in fences or prevent feeding).\nIn the United States, an estimated 80% of all dairy calves (4.8 million per year) and 25% (8.75 million animals) of beef cattle are dehorned every year [(Carlson et al., 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560#ref1). Dehorning of adult cattle is associated with increased risks of sinusitis, bleeding, prolonged wound healing, and infection [(American Veterinary Medical Association, 2014)](https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/LiteratureReviews/Documents/dehorning_cattle_bgnd.pdf). There is evidence that dehorning is painful for the animal: physiologic, neuroendocrine, and behavioral changes indicative of pain and distress are observed following dehorning (ibid.).\nFortunately, gene editing technologies can be used to create hornless cows. In 2016 Alison van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis, in partnership collaboration with Tad Sonstegard and his Minnesota-based company Recombinetics, [used genome-editing to make cattle that don’t grow horns](https://innovativegenomics.org/blog/got-milk-a-kinder-cup-through-genome-editing/).\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when hornless cows can be successfully commercialised.\nWhen will the milk of cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless be for sale, for human consumption, in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when the milk from cows whose DNA is intentionally altered to be hornless using modern molecular technologies, that do not involve selective breeding, are first for sale for purposes of human consumption, in any state of the United States. For the purpose of this question, an organism with intentionally altered DNA are those with alterations introduced into the DNA of an organism using modern molecular technologies, such as genetic engineering (also referred to as recombinant DNA technology) and genome editing.\nExamples of the use of modern molecular technologies that qualify for positive resolution is the [transcription activator-like effector nucleases](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transcription_activator-like_effector_nuclease) (TALENs) to swap the version of the [POLLED](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/agricultural-and-biological-sciences/polled-trait) gene that causes horn growth in dairy cattle into the hornless version that naturally exists in beef cattle. This specific example was used in the approach reported a Nature correspondence [(Carlson et al. 2016)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560). \nThe specific genomic alternation needs to result in cows never developing horns at least 25% of the time for male cows. The question resolves on the basis of credible media reports. Modified animals used to study human diseases or used for drug testing do not count toward resolution.\nIf the question does not resolve before October 2nd, 2035, it resolves as \"> Oct 2, 2035\".\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:13.898Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 83, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2019-10-05T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2024-01-01T00:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, + { + "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:15.073Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 73, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the highest value of the U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) before 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4444/what-will-be-the-highest-value-of-the-us-private-sector-job-quality-index-jqi-1-before-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[jobqualityindex.com](https://www.jobqualityindex.com/)\nThe JQI is aimed at assessing the degree to which the number of jobs in the United States is weighted towards more desirable higher-wage/higher-hour jobs versus lower-wage/lower-hour jobs, which can serve as a proxy for the overall health of the U.S. jobs market, the national economy, and worldwide financial markets. The initial form of the index (JQI-1) covers only production and nonsupervisory workers. \nThe index divides all jobs into high and low quality by calculating the mean weekly income (hourly wages times by hours worked) and then calculates the number of jobs that are above or below that mean. An index reading of 100 would indicate an even distribution between high and low quality jobs. Index value below 100 indicate a greater concentration in lower quality job positions (those below the mean). Index above 100 indicates greater concentration in high quality (above the mean) job positions.\nConceptually:\nExact calculation is more complex. It's described in [JQI White Paper](https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/prosperousamerica/pages/5467/attachments/original/1573727821/U.S._Private_Sector_Job_Quailty_Index_White_Paper.pdf?1573727821).\nThe question asks what will be the highest U.S. Private Sector Job Quality Index (JQI-1) value before 2030? The last month included in the question is December 2029. \nThe initial high value is 79.11 from April 2020.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:40.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:16.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { @@ -47495,32 +47672,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5558/squad20-perfomance-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nCurrently, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be, at the end of 2022?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) as of 31 December, 2022.\nIn case the leaderboard is not maintained, other credible sources should be consulted.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:42.678Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 71, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-01T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-12-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T22:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5670/calculating-rsa-public-keys/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Quantum computers are getting better every year and big companies like Microsoft and Google want to add them to their cloud offerings.\nOne task that quantum computers can do better than regular computers is factoring numbers. This is crucial because a common public-key encryption (and signature) scheme, RSA, relies on the difficulty of factoring the product of two large primes (this product is known as a semiprime). Besides RSA, the two other public-key schemes used in securing internet traffic, DSA signatures and Diffie–Hellman key exchange, are also breakable by quantum computers. The timescale for this happening, however, is unclear (and some still doubt whether it is even in principle possible.)\nFor a precise question we'll ask:\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to factor any given 2048-bit semiprime?\nThere's a previous question which makes a prediction for [2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/607/will-it-cost-less-than-1000-to-calculate-a-pgp-private-key-from-a-2048-bits-pgp-public-key-in-2030/).\nWhen will it cost less than $1000 to calculate the private key of a 2048-bit RSA public key?\nResolution is positive if there is compelling evidence that a computing system is employed to perform this task for < $1000. (Thus the system must cost less than this or – far more likely – it must be possible to purchase use of such a computer for the task for < $1000 USD. We'll assume 2020 dollars for this.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:44.509Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:17.681Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 56, "resolution_data": { @@ -47550,7 +47708,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:46.430Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:18.935Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 436, "resolution_data": { @@ -47569,7 +47727,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Language modelling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model) is the task of predicting the next word or character in a document. Language modelling is a core part of the field of [natural language processing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_language_processing).\nAmongst the most popular benchmarks for testing language models are the following four:\n1-- \n[Penn Treebank](http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.9.8216&rep=rep1&type=pdf). The dataset consists of 929k training words, 73k validation words, and 82k test words.\n2-- \n[WikiText-2](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). WikiText-2 consists of around 2 million words extracted from Wikipedia articles.\n3-- \n[WikiText-103](https://arxiv.org/abs/1609.07843). The WikiText-103 corpus contains 267,735 unique words and each word occurs at least three times in the training set.\n4-- \n[1B Words](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.3005.pdf). The dataset consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words.\nWhich language modelling benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nPenn Treebank: 13\n--- \nWikiText-2: 7\n--- \nWikiText-103: 18\n--- \n1B Words: 5\nHence, since WikiText-103 had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 3.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date. \nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:48.216Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:20.122Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -47588,7 +47746,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [largest known prime](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number) is currently 24,862,048 digits in length. In 1961 the largest known prime was only 1,332 digits. When will a 100 million digit prime be discovered?\nThis question will resolve with the date of publication of the prime in question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:50.004Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:21.279Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { @@ -47618,7 +47776,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:51.709Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:22.634Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { @@ -47648,7 +47806,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:53.377Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:23.827Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { @@ -47667,9 +47825,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Annual GDP growth rate in Europe has gradually decreased by approximately 1% between 2017 and 2019, ending with an average growth rate in 2019 of [1.523%](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU). Growth dropped into the negative ranges in 2020 with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leaving GDP growth to flounder [3.3% in Q1, and fall again 14.8% in Q2](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Quarterly_national_accounts_-_GDP_and_employment#Quarterly_GDP_growth). Q3, following similar global trends, saw a bounce back with GDP growth of [12.7%](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10663774/2-30102020-BP-EN.pdf/94d48ceb-de52-fcf0-aa3d-313361b761c5).\nAs new COVID-19 vaccines enter the horizon, the possibility of economic recovery in 2021 looks promising. Commissioner Gentiloni of the European Commission remarked in the Autumn 2020 Press Conference for Economic Forecasts that while GDP is expected to contract over [7% in 2020](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040), 2021 should see just over a [4% increase](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/SPEECH_20_2040) in growth.\nWill will be the EU GDP growth (year on year) in 2021?\nResolution Criteria will be provided through the [WorldBank](https://www.worldbank.org/). It will reflect the total annual percentage change in GDP between 2020 and 2021 as seen in [this graph](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?locations=EU).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:55.117Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:26.095Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 104, + "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -47697,7 +47855,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:23:58.328Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:27.504Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -47716,9 +47874,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One dose vaccines also count.\nHow many doses of any COVID19 vaccine will have been administered in Germany on 2021-10-01?\nJudged according to [ourworldindata.org](https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-12-20..latest&country=DEU~EuropeanUnion&region=World&vaccinationsMetric=true&interval=total&smoothing=0&pickerMetric=total_vaccinations_per_hundred&pickerSort=desc).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:00.222Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:29.032Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 55, + "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-25T22:59:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -47735,7 +47893,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Gross Domestic Product Annual Growth Rate in the United States](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg?locations=us) averaged 3.20% from 1948 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 7.3% in 1984. \nThe Gross Domestic Product of the United States expanded 3% in the third quarter of 2018 over the same quarter of the previous year. \nThis question asks: Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage real GDP growth in the US?\nThe question resolves as the highest % growth in US GDP over a single calendar year (Jan-1 to Jan-1), achieved between Jan 1, 2020 to Dec 31, 2029.\nResolution should cite figures from US Treasury or credible reports in the financial press.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:02.199Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:30.237Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { @@ -47754,7 +47912,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L4 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L4 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L4 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:04.036Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:31.445Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { @@ -47773,7 +47931,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)):\nStarlink is a satellite constellation development project underway by American company SpaceX, to develop a low-cost, high-performance satellite bus and requisite customer ground transceivers to implement a new space-based Internet communication system.\nAccording to [this Space News article](https://spacenews.com/fcc-oks-lower-orbit-for-some-starlink-satellites/), they intend to launch 12 000 satellites by the end of 2027. As of the 22nd of March 2019, 62 have been launched (at least [57 are operational](https://spacenews.com/contact-lost-with-three-starlink-satellites-other-57-healthy/)), with 60 more scheduled in October 2019. Quite a long way to go.\nQuestion: How many Starlink satellites will be in orbit and operational at the end of 2027?\nResolution details:\n---Resolution is by credible media report. \n---This is insensitive to the project changing name, being bought by another company, etc. as long as it is the same project as judged by a Metaculus admin. \n---The end of 2027 is 2027-12-31 23:59:59 UTC. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:06.112Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:32.673Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 193, "resolution_data": { @@ -47792,7 +47950,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%) amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:08.058Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:33.834Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 122, "resolution_data": { @@ -47811,7 +47969,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "With the changing realities of media consumption (many video on demand services, both legal and not), one has to wonder how the movie industry will cope. Previously they lived by ticket sales alone, then came merchandise, and now the influx of legal downloads, available increasingly shortly after the release of the movies in theatres. \nAs such it shouldn't surprise one that ticket prices have been rising over the years. Some cinemas demand more per ticket, some less, but the average almost doubled within the last 20 years. The average for 2017 was just shy of 9 dollar. Thus one has to wonder: when will the magical 10 dollar threshold be broken?\nWhen will the average ticket price in US cinemas hit the $10 threshold?\nThis question will resolve positive when, a quarter after the respective box office year ends, [The Numbers](https://www.the-numbers.com/market/) or another credible source reports an average annualised ticket price of ≥ US$10.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:10.114Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:35.052Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -47830,7 +47988,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, according to the [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR), an initiative by the [World Resources Institute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Resources_Institute), 12.85 millions of hectares of tree cover was lost in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2015.\nThe Amazon (60% of which is located in Brazil) represents over half of the planet's remaining rainforests, and comprises the largest and most biodiverse tract of tropical rainforest in the world, with an estimated 390 billion individual trees divided into 16,000 species.\nThe Amazon plays a crucial role in including carbon sequestration, climate and water cycle regulation, and maintenance of biodiversity.[[1](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aacd1c)]\nHow much forest coverage loss, in Mha, will occur in Brazil in the three-year period starting from 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the sum of forest coverage loss in an area with >30% tree canopy in Brazil, in the years 2020, 2021 and 2022. This resolves on the basis of the data by [Global Forest Watch](https://bit.ly/2SogDpR).\nNote that this question resolves as gross forest coverage loss, (not net forest coverage loss), the metric therefore does not deduct tree coverage gains.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:11.940Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:36.274Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 150, "resolution_data": { @@ -47849,7 +48007,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In her project “Boys Only”, Alison Van Eenennaam and her research team at UC Davis aims to create a bull that will father only male offspring: either normal bull calves with XY chromosomes (males) or XX chromosomes (females) but with the male-making SRY. The presence of SRY can make a female turn out to be essentially male—with bigger muscles, a penis, and testicles (although unable to make sperm).\nSince beef ranchers generally prefer males to females as these have more muscle weight, adding the male-making gene SRY could improve the efficiency of beef production, thereby potentially reducing the number of cows required to produce a given weight of beef.\nHowever, [van Eenennaam's 2019 article](http://(https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y)) argues that the currently proposed U.S. regulation of gene-edited food animals is \"not fit for purpose\" as it has made it virtually impossible to commercialise gene-edited food animals. Although the [FDA has introduced new ventures](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/vip-veterinary-innovation-program) to expedite advancements in the regulatory approval process of innovative animal products, it is unclear when SRY cows can first be successfully commercialized.\nWhen will beef for human consumption, from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to carry a copy of the SRY gene, be for sale in the United States?\nResolution\nThis question resolves positively if beef for human consumption from cattle whose genetic material has been edited to generate cisgenic bulls that carry an extra copy of the [bovine SRY gene](https://portal.nifa.usda.gov/web/crisprojectpages/1007279-genetic-containment-in-livestock-via-crispr-mediated-gene-knock-in.html) are legally for sale in the United States.\nResolution should be based on credible media reporting, or on the basis of credible statements by relevant companies, researchers or research organisations.\nIf this question does not resolve before the 5th of October, 2032, this question resolves as \"> Oct 5, 2032\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:13.848Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:37.516Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -47868,7 +48026,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A definition courtesy of [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA):\nAn initial claim is a claim filed by an unemployed individual after a separation from an employer. The claim requests a determination of basic eligibility for the Unemployment Insurance program.\nA falling number of initial jobless claims is generally interpreted as indicating an improving economic situation, and a rising number vice versa. Before 2020-03-21, initial jobless claims had been below 300k for over 5 years, or 263 consecutive weeks. In the data series going back to 1967, the figure had never exceeded 700k.\nInitial claims for the week ending 2020-03-21 were 3.3MM, 11.7x the previous week's figure and 4.7x the previous record set in 1982. And the following week saw claims more than double to 6.8MM. Weekly initial claims have been mostly falling since then.\nWhen will US initial jobless claims fall below 300 thousand?\nThis prediction resolves when the US Department of Labor reports a seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims lower than 300,000. Data are to be found here: [https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA)\nThe resolution uses the \"observation date,\" which is the Saturday before the report is released. So if a report is released 2021-02-03 for the week ending 2021-01-30, the resolution date is 2021-01-30. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:15.658Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:38.668Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -47887,7 +48045,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Spotify](https://www.spotify.com/) is an audio streaming provider, launched in 2008. From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spotify): \nSpotify offers digital copyright restricted recorded music and podcasts, including more than 60 million songs, from record labels and media companies. As a freemium service, basic features are free with advertisements and limited control, while additional features, such as offline listening and commercial-free listening, are offered via paid subscriptions. Users can search for music based on artist, album, or genre, and can create, edit, and share playlists.\nSpotify is available in most of Europe and the Americas, Oceania, and parts of Africa and Asia; on most modern devices including Windows, macOS, and Linux computers; iOS and Android smartphones and tablets; and AI enabled smart speakers such as Amazon Echo and Google Home. As of October 2020, the platform has 320 million monthly active users, including 144 million paying subscribers.\nAs of 2021-01-22, the song that has been streamed the greatest number of time on Spotify is \"Shape of You\" by Ed Sheeran, with 2.695 billion streams. Wikipedia maintains [a list of the most-streamed songs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-streamed_songs_on_Spotify).\nWhen will a song have been streamed 4 billion times on Spotify?\nThis question resolves when Spotify data shows that this has happened. For example, the current web interface shows the number of streams of each artist's popular songs (e.g. [Ed Sheeran](https://open.spotify.com/artist/6eUKZXaKkcviH0Ku9w2n3V)), and of any track by hovering over its popularity bar. Credible media reports are also sufficient for resolution.\nIf it is known that this has never happened, then the question resolves as greater than the upper bound. This could happen if Spotify does not continue to exist.\nIf it is unknown whether this has ever happened, for instance because Spotify does not make these data available, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:17.340Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:39.924Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -47906,7 +48064,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the most widely used metrics for country well-being comparison is the GDP per capita metric, which [intends to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product) \"the market value of all the final goods and services produced\". [Wikipedia provides](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28PPP%29_per_capita) a convenient overview of rankings according to different sources.\nOne notable thing is that countries tend to keep their relative positions over time, but not entirely so. Some countries that used to be rich are no longer (e.g., [Argentina](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_history_of_Argentina)), and others that were very poor are now rich or quickly becoming rich (e.g. [Asian tigers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Asian_Tigers), and now China).\nDenmark is currently ranked 12 on the World Bank's 2019 estimates, excluding dependent territories. The question is: What will Denmark's ranking be in 2030?\nResolution will be based on [World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD?most_recent_value_desc=true) estimates corresponding to the year 2030, with the exclusion of all dependent territories listed in [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dependent_territory) at the time the World Bank estimates are released. If the Wikipedia article no longer exists but it is still reasonably clear which countries should be excluded from the criteria spelled out in that article, those will be the countries excluded for resolving the question. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously. If the World Bank stops publishing the dataset, the question will also resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:19.145Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:41.226Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { @@ -47925,7 +48083,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nWhat will the US unemployment rate be in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on US Bureau of Labor Statistics data, such as that shown [here](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the average of the unemployment rate, as a percentage, for each month in 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will inflation be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4033/what-will-inflation-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see mass price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:21.005Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:47.957Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 452, "resolution_data": { @@ -47944,7 +48102,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Ectogenesis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ectogenesis) is the growth of an organism in an artificial environment outside the body in which it would normally be found, such as the growth of an embryo or fetus outside the mother's body. Ectogenesis of human embryos and fetuses would require some kind of [artificial uterus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus). An artificial uterus would have to be supplied by nutrients and oxygen from some source to nurture a fetus, and would have to dispose of waste material. \nThe potential development of technology allowing for humans to be created entirely ex vivo (that is, fertilisation by in-vitro fertilisation and the entire gestation of the zygote, embryo, and fetus taking place in an artificial environment) has far-reaching implications for humanity, enabling not only a dramatic change in respect of reproductive rights and neonatal medical care, but perhaps even the end of the natural human pregnancy as a cultural norm.\nAn early form of this technology has [already been demonstrated with a mammalian model, developing a lamb fetus for four weeks,](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) though these animals were not gestated entirely ex vivo. Here is the associated paper, ['An extra-uterine system to physiologically support the extreme premature lamb'](https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms15112), published in Nature Communications.\nThis question asks: When will the first example of an entirely extracorporeal human pregnancy conclude with the 'birth' of a healthy, conscious child who lives for a period of at least one year from the date of birth? \nThe date we are looking to predict here is the date of the 'birth.'\nBy 'artificial environment,' this question refers expressly to an environment that is not any part of a mammalian body, and an environment which is not dependent upon any direct connection with any mammalian body or part thereof.\nThis means that the artificial uterus cannot be the uterus of any human or non-human mammal, and the artificial uterus cannot be connected to either an entire human or non-human mammal, or any human or non-human mammalian organ or organ system.\nResolution should cite credible media reports, a press release from the responsible organisation, or an article in a scientific journal.\nKeyword for search: artificial womb.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:22.899Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:49.329Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -47963,9 +48121,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:24.595Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:50.524Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 81, + "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -47982,7 +48140,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe US expects to see an increase in the age of its labor force as more workers put off full time retirement at the traditional age of 65. Slowing population growth amongst American citizens, as well as declining societal support for seniors, work together to increase the median age of the average worker in the US labor force. \nIn 2019, the median age for employment in the US was 42.3, up from 42.1 in 2011. However, as the [struggles surrounding social security](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/12/business/social-security-shortfall-2020.html) rise, both from higher average life expectancies and and a growing elderly population, the US could see an increasingly older workforce. \nBarring the influence of population growth, the difference between the number of employed workers ages 16-19 and 65+ have increased from just over 2,000k workers to over 5,000k from 2011 to 2019, a trend that supports the slow growth of the median age. Although, according to a [research paper](https://siepr.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/publications/Do.older_.workers.squeeze.out_.younger.workers_2.pdf) from Stanford, the age of the workforce does not necessarily influence or restrict entry into the workforce by younger workers.\nWhat will be the median age of an employed person in the US in 2040?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:33.356Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:51.684Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { @@ -48001,7 +48159,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2022-01-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:35.590Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:52.883Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { @@ -48020,7 +48178,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q1 of 2021?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\"](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm) according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:37.828Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:54.205Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { @@ -48039,7 +48197,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Language modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be on 2023-02-14 in perplexity, amongst models not trained on extra data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2023-02-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:39.915Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:55.377Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { @@ -48069,7 +48227,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:41.590Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:56.803Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { @@ -48099,9 +48257,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:43.750Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:57.994Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 173, + "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -48129,9 +48287,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:45.536Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:26:59.144Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 224, + "numforecasts": 225, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -48159,7 +48317,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:47.846Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:00.423Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 276, "resolution_data": { @@ -48189,9 +48347,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:49.737Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:01.587Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 62, + "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-29T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -48219,7 +48377,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:51.966Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:02.859Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 287, "resolution_data": { @@ -48238,7 +48396,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:53.776Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:04.011Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 185, "resolution_data": { @@ -48257,7 +48415,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe solar cycle maximum is represented by the day of greatest solar activity within the frame of a single, approximately 11-year long, solar cycle. In the period near the maximum, the largest number of sunspots appear, and the frequency of solar flares and coronal mass ejections is correspondingly high. \nAs [NASA](https://spaceplace.nasa.gov/solar-cycles/en/) reports:\n“Giant eruptions on the Sun, such as solar flares and coronal mass ejections, also increase during the solar cycle. These eruptions send powerful bursts of energy and material into space. This activity can have effects on Earth. For example, eruptions can cause lights in the sky, called aurora, or impact radio communications. Extreme eruptions can even affect electricity grids on Earth.” \nForecasts for the date near which a given Solar Cycle will peak provide improvement for predictions of the level of solar activity and its impact on the satellite industry. Near Solar Maximum, satellites in low earth orbit are affected by an increased atmospheric drag. Moreover, [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) and CMEs during the period surrounding solar maximum can severely damage satellite electronics and present degradations to a variety of communications technologies. \nOn what day will Solar Cycle 25’s maxima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site provides a record of the number of sunspots at the minimum and the maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to report the forthcoming Cycle 25’s maximum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:55.508Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:05.719Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -48287,7 +48445,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:24:57.492Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:07.203Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { @@ -48306,7 +48464,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In September 2019 Fahy et al. [published](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028) results from the TRIIM (Thymus Regeneration, Immunorestoration, and Insulin Mitigation) trial. Their stated goals were to investigate whether they could restore the immune systems in eight healthy older men (ages 51 - 65) using a combination of recombinant human growth hormone, dehydroepiandrosterone and metformin. While they achieved impressive on-paper results partially restoring the [thymus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus), the most impressive result came from their [epigenetic measurement of aging](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigenetic_clock) of subjects in the trial.\nFahy et al. had successfully reversed aging in their subjects according to four epigenetic measures of aging. The effect size was large: each measure indicated an average gain of over 2 years after 1 year of treatment. In other words, if hypothetically a subject was 60 years old at the beginning of the trial, both chronologically and epigenetically, then by the end of the year they would be 61 years old chronologically but less than 59 years old epigenetically.\nOf the epigenetic measures of aging, GrimAge is thought to be the best available predictor of lifespan. From [the paper](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6366976/) introducing GrimAge,\nUsing large scale validation data from thousands of individuals, we demonstrate that DNAm GrimAge stands out among existing epigenetic clocks in terms of its predictive ability for time-to-death, time-to-coronary heart disease, time-to-cancer, its strong relationship with computed tomography data for fatty liver/excess visceral fat, and age-at-menopause.\nFahy et al. demonstrated a mean age reversal of 2.16 years after 1 year of treatment according to the GrimAge measurement (see Table 1 in [the paper](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/acel.13028)).\nFahy is reportedly spearheading a new trial, called TRIIM-X (see [this part of his recent TEDx talk](https://youtu.be/PFg-OMHvI2E?t=968)). He hopes to investigate the effects of a modified version of the same treatment with the benefits of a larger trial and a more diverse set of participants.\nThis question asks, after 12 months of treatment, what will be the mean expected lifespan gain after taking the directed treatment in the TRIIM-X trial, as measured by GrimAge?\nIf for whatever reason, the relevant GrimAge results from TRIIM-X are not released by January 1st 2027, this question resolves ambiguously. If the results are informally published (as indicated by some reliable online document of any kind) at some point prior to January 1st 2027, the question resolves retroactively on the date the document was published.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:00.652Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:08.353Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { @@ -48336,7 +48494,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:02.510Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:09.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -48355,7 +48513,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:04.531Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:10.626Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { @@ -48374,7 +48532,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Open Philanthropy Project has written about its reasoning on how to decide how to spread out grants over time. In 2015, Open Philanthropy Project stated that it [wanted its last donated dollar to do more good than a direct cash transfer](https://blog.givewell.org/2015/11/25/good-ventures-and-giving-now-vs-later/#Benchmark), and was targeting a 5% rate of annual dispersal, possibly to be increased in the future. Since then, Open Phil has updated its position, and [no longer uses a single benchmark.](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/update-cause-prioritization-open-philanthropy)\nOpen Phil may wish to donate all its funds relatively quickly, or spread out its giving over the course of centuries. How long will it take Open Phil to spend half its current assets?\nCari Tuna and Dustin Moskowitz, the founders of Good Ventures, currently have a [net worth of $14 billion](https://www.celebritynetworth.com/richest-businessmen/business-executives/dustin-moskovitz-net-worth/) according to Forbes. Cari and Dustin have voiced an intention to donate most of their wealth.\nAs of 2020, Open Phil [has donated a little over $1 billion](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/giving/grants), almost all of which came from Good Ventures. When will the Open Philanthropy Project have donated a total of $7 billion of Good Ventures money, inflation-adjusted to 2020 dollars?\nMoney donated by Open Phil that came from other donors does not count toward the $7 billion, but funding recommended by Open Phil where the donation is enacted by Good Ventures does count.\nBy the Open Philanthropy Project, we refer to the grant-making organisation that makes Effective Altruism-aligned grants. If the organisation substantially changes its focus so that this is no longer broadly congruent with the latest Effective Altruist priorities, as judged by a Metaculus admin, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:06.639Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:11.822Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -48393,7 +48551,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The video live-streaming service [Twitch](https://www.twitch.tv/) is primarily used for streaming liveplay of video games. In fact, all 50 of the currently most-followed accounts are video-game streamers, with Fortnite being the most common title played by streamers.\nThe user who currently has the most followers, Ninja, stopped using the platform on August 1, 2019 in order to move to the platform [Mixer.](https://mixer.com/) He still has 14.7m followers on Twitch, despite not having posted a video since then.\nThis question asks: When will a Twitch user have more followers than Ninja?\nQuestion resolves as the first time at which the most-followed account on Twitch is someone other than Ninja. If Ninja’s account is deleted from Twitch, the question will resolve as the time of deletion.\nThis question is part of the Academy Series, a set of questions designed to be an introduction to forecasting for those who are relatively new and are looking for a new intellectual pursuit this summer.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:10.224Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:14.273Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 156, "resolution_data": { @@ -48412,7 +48570,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Decarbonization of the electricity sector is required to meet climate stabilization targets [(IPCC 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/AR5_SYR_FINAL_SPM.pdf). \nThe overall capacity of all newly installed wind turbines installed worldwide by the end of 2018 reached a record 598.9 gigawatt, roughly 5x the amount of those installed ten years prior, according to [statistics published by the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA)](https://library.wwindea.org/global-statitistics-1980/). \nAccording [to data by BP](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/wind-energy-consumption-by-region), an energy company, a total of 959.53 terawatt-hours of wind energy was consumed in 2016.\nHow much wind energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of terawatt-hours of wind energy consumed in the calendar year 2023 according to credible estimates. Estimates should originate from BP's [Statistical Review of World Energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html). Other sources with a similar methodology may be consulted if BP's estimates are not admissible. Similarity of methodology shall be decided by an admin. One criterion for similarity is that the estimates of wind energy consumed globally in 2016, is off by less than 25% 959.53 terawatt-hours. in the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:11.994Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:15.425Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 169, "resolution_data": { @@ -48442,7 +48600,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:13.863Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:16.595Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -48461,7 +48619,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe [NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections) defines a coronal mass ejection (CME) as: \n“ large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field from the Sun’s corona. They can eject billions of tons of coronal material and carry an embedded magnetic field (frozen in flux) that is stronger than the background solar wind interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength. CMEs travel outward from the Sun at speeds ranging from slower than 250 kilometers per second (km/s) to as fast as near 3000 km/s. The fastest Earth-directed CMEs can reach our planet in as little as 15-18 hours.They expand in size as they propagate away from the Sun and larger CMEs can reach a size comprising nearly a quarter of the space between Earth and the Sun by the time it reaches our planet.” \nBeisecker, who works at the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center and led the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel in 2019, remarked that CMEs are approximately [ten times as frequent at the solar maxima than at the minimum](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent). \n[CMEs allow for solar wind and particles to escape the sun and move towards Earth](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming), which can cause geo-magnetic storms and auroral displays. \nWhat will be the largest CME during Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution criteria will be provided by the [SOHO LASCO CME catalog](https://cdaw.gsfc.nasa.gov/CME_list/) provided by the CDAW data center by NASA and the Catholic University of America with the Naval Research Laboratory. The size of the CME will be determined by its kinetic energy (KE). This question will resolve ambiguously if no data is available, or it is incalculable due to missing values.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:15.744Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:17.896Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { @@ -48491,7 +48649,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:17.594Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:19.109Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -48510,7 +48668,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2021-06-14 in top-1 accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:19.494Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:20.313Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 291, "resolution_data": { @@ -48529,7 +48687,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Blades used by disabled athletes are improving, allowing them to run faster.\nThe current world record for the 100 meters is 9.572 seconds, ran by Usain Bolt in 2009. You can see how this record progressed over time on Wikipedia's article [Men's 100 metres world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression). Jeremy Richmond, a scientist, predicts the best possible time for a non-augmented human is 9.27 seconds (source: [Ultimate 100-Meter Time: 9.27 Seconds?](https://www.runnersworld.com/races-places/a20791832/ultimate-100-meter-time-9-27-seconds/)).\nThis question asks, when will a human with no biological feet run 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds?\nIf no human without biological feet runs 100 meters in less than 9.572 seconds before January 1st 2100, then this question resolves as >2100.\nLiam Malone thinks it's possible – although not while respecting the rules set by the Paralympics on which artificial legs athletes can wear (source: [Usain Bolt: Para-athlete Liam Malone vows to run faster than Olympic legend](https://www.bbc.com/sport/disability-sport/40677890)).\nConditions:\n--- \nGenetically modified humans don't count for the purpose of this question.\n--- \nThe artificial limbs can't have wheels or generate energy, nor have any device that produces energy, and must finish at the same height they started (ie. not convert potential gravitational energy into kinetic energy).\n--- \nThe run must start from an immobile position.\n--- \nThe athlete can't start running less than 0.1 seconds after the start signal (source: [5 Rules You Probably Didn’t Know About the 100m Sprint](https://tallypress.com/fun/5-rules-you-probably-didnt-know-about-the-100m-sprint/)).\n--- \nThe wind speed has to be at most 3 m/s in their favor.\n--- \nThe run must finish before January 1st, 2100, 00:00 UDT+0.\n--- \nThe run must be on a flat ground.\n--- \nGravitational acceleration and air resistance must be similar to those we currently normally found on Earth.\nThe source used for resolution will be Guinness World Records, or some other appropriately reputable source as determined by Metaculus admins in communication with the community.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:21.335Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:21.477Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -48559,7 +48717,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:23.018Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:23.380Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { @@ -48578,7 +48736,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Computation and Language e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computation and Language e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computation and Language e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:24.837Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:24.710Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { @@ -48597,7 +48755,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L5 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L5 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L5 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L3 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3770/when-will-l3-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:29.546Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:26.012Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 180, "resolution_data": { @@ -48616,7 +48774,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their June 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the June 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:31.335Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:27.486Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 321, "resolution_data": { @@ -48635,7 +48793,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Croatia is obligated to switch from its current currency, the kuna, and [begin using the euro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Croatia_and_the_euro) as a consequence of its membership in the European Union. It was initially expected that Croatia would transition in 2019. At that time several criteria for entering the [eurozone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone) were not yet met, so the expected entry date was pushed back.\nThis question asks, When will Croatia adopt the euro?\nThis question resolves positively on the date Croatia adopts the euro as its sole official currency. This information will be published by the [European Union](https://europa.eu/european-union/about-eu/countries/member-countries/croatia_en). It will also be reported in reputable media such as The Economist, Reuters, and Bloomberg. The question resolves ambiguously if Croatia is no longer a part of the EU or if the euro stops existing by that time.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:33.340Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:28.754Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 79, "resolution_data": { @@ -48665,7 +48823,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:36.820Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:31.276Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -48684,7 +48842,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Image recognition is a task of assigning a label to an image. There has been enormous progress in the last 10 years due to deep learning. However, in 2013 researchers pointed out certain [intriguing properties of neural networks](https://arxiv.org/abs/1312.6199). In particular, neural networks seem to suffer from a problem currently known as adversarial examples.\nAdversarial examples are images optimized so as to fool a machine learning algorithm, but remain unambiguous to humans. Current machine learning algorithms can be fooled by changes that are essentially impossible to perceive by humans. The issue of adversarial examples highlight differences in how humans and algorithms do image recognition. [\"Adversarial Examples - A Complete Characterisation of the Phenomenon\"](https://arxiv.org/abs/1810.01185) provides an extensive overview.\nNotably, adversarial examples can also be a security issue, for example by making it possible to bypass face or voice recognition used for authentication.\nRecently Google introduced [the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge](https://ai.googleblog.com/2018/09/introducing-unrestricted-adversarial.html). This challenge allows unrestricted inputs, allowing participants to submit arbitrary images from the target classes to develop and test models on a wider variety of adversarial examples. They ask models to answer the question \"Is this an unambiguous picture of a bird, a bicycle, or is it (ambiguous / not obvious)?\". The images are provided by attackers and are first labeled by humans. A small monetary prize will be awarded to any team that breaks a previously-unbroken defense with an eligible input.\nThe question asks:\n\nWhen will image recognition be made robust against unrestricted adversary?\n--------------------------------------------------------------------------\n\nThe question will resolve when the large defender prize of the Unrestricted Adversarial Examples Challenge is awarded. This means that a defense (an image recognition algorithm) must remain unbroken for at least 90 days. [This file provides details of the challenge.](https://github.com/google/unrestricted-adversarial-examples/blob/7cf9c3e6a33d32de3c7f1568b655d391f7815370/contest_proposal.md#unrestricted-adversarial-examples-contest-proposal) The question will resolve even if the details of the challenge are modified as long as the spirit of the challenge remains the same. The question will resolve as ambiguous if the challenge is discontinued before the end of 2030.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:38.591Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:32.589Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { @@ -48703,7 +48861,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The first petascale supercomputer--that is, a computer capable of performing 10^15 floating-point operations per second, or one petaFLOP--[came online in 2008](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_performance_by_orders_of_magnitude). \nThe first exascale computers (10^18 operations) are expected [later this year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5872/total-compute-top500-supercomputers-june-21/) and were [originally expected by Metaculus late last year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/415/when-will-the-first-exaflop-performer-appear/).\nThe first zettascale computers, which can perform 10^21 operations per second, are not yet on the horizon.\nWhen will zettascale computing be achieved?\nResolves when the [Top500 list](https://top500.org/lists/top500/) (or other credible source, Wikipedia included, if Top500 isn't around) lists a computer capable of one zettaFLOP or higher Rmax (or broadly equivalent performance measure if Rmax is no longer used) performance. \nHistorical Top500 data available [here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit#gid=660616297).\nDistributed computing projects like Folding@home do not suffice for positive resolution. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:40.250Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:33.772Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 18, "resolution_data": { @@ -48722,7 +48880,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:42.268Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:35.059Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 123, "resolution_data": { @@ -48741,7 +48899,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF](https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239769/ishares-north-american-tech-etf) (IGM) is an exchange-traded fund that gives broad exposure to the technology sector. IGM holds many key technology companies that may stand to benefit from progress in AI. Its holdings include Google, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Nvidia, amongst others.\nWhat will the price of IGM be, on 2021-06-14, in nominal USD?\nThis question resolves as the closing price of IGM on 2021-06-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IGM/holdings?p=IGM). Prices are to be given in nominal USD.\nIn the case the ETF splits (or reverse splits), for the purpose of this question, the price at resolution will be scaled up by the split (e.g. a 2:1 split that results in the halving of the ETF price, will result in the resolution value being 2 times the price). In case multiple splits occur, the price will be scaled by the product of all split factors. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:46.284Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:37.625Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 220, "resolution_data": { @@ -48760,7 +48918,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Today insect proteins cannot be fed to poultry as legislation passed after the mad cow disease crisis in the late 1990s prevents processed animal proteins from being fed to livestock ([IPIFF, 2018](http://ipiff.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Web-version_IPIFF_Sustainability-consult_Brochure-31-10-1.pdf)). As a result, insects cannot currently be fed to chickens or pigs. However, an exception to that legislation has been made for farmed fish and, since 2013, insects have been approved in aquaculture feed (ibid.).\nSince approving insect feed for fish feed, companies have begun producing insect protein:\nRoughly 1,000 tonnes of insect protein have been commercialised by European insect producers in total, since the authorisation of insect proteins for use in aqua feed.\nIn the calendar year 2028, how many tonnes of insect protein will be estimated to be used as animal feed for livestock, poultry and fish in Europe?\nResolution\nEstimates should come from credible organisations, such as the [International Platform of Insects for Food & Feed Association (IPIFF)](http://ipiff.org/), or other EU-affiliated organisations or academic publications by researchers without livestock-feed related commercial affiliations.\nIn the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:48.484Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:38.906Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { @@ -48779,9 +48937,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Initial jobless claims](https://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/initial-jobless-claims-294) reflect the number of people filing for unemployment insurance over the last week. A higher number should be read negatively as higher unemployment reduces the productivity of the economy.\nGreatly impacted by the spread of COVID-19, the [number of initial jobless claims skyrocketed in March](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA) but has gradually begun to decrease since then. However, the current level for the beginning of August is over five times the level recorded in December of 2019. \nJanuary 14th saw a [larger than expected increase](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/u-s-weekly-jobless-claims-jump-on-covid-19-renewed-supplementary-payments-idUSKBN29J1Q8) in initial jobless claims, causing an uptick in a previously downward trend. As mutations of the virus spread and the [pandemic worsens](https://time.com/5913620/covid-third-wave/) across America, fears concerning the weakening of the labor market are beginning to grow. \nThe level of initial jobless claims is an excellent indicator of the health of the jobs market, and the economy as a whole. Low levels of claims can signal that companies might have a more difficult time hiring workers, and that workers currently employed will need overtime pay or higher compensation as an enticement. [Wage inflation can increase interest rates and decrease the price of bonds and stocks in the investment market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=509825&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top), which is bad news to investors and is watched carefully by the Federal Reserve.\nRelated questions:\n[Initial Jobless Claims January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5793/initial-jobless-claims-in-january-2021/)\n[Initial Jobless Claims February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5794/initial-jobless-claims-in-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the 5-week average of initial jobless claims filed in April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria for this question will be provided through either the [Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA), or through the reports organized on [Econoday’s calendar](https://us.econoday.com/byweek.asp?cust=us). This number will reflect the 4-week average of weekly reports for that month. Those data points will include the reporting dates: 2-April, 9-April, 16-April, 23-April, 30-April\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:50.166Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:40.704Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -48798,7 +48956,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the 1980s, long before [Elon Musk](http://www.spacex.com) and [Jeff Bezos](https://www.blueorigin.com) got into the commercial space business, Europe's [Arianespace](http://www.arianespace.com) pioneered the commercial space payload launch industry. \nIn recent years, with hundreds of launches under the belts of Arianespace and American commercial launchers like [United Launch Alliance](http://www.ulalaunch.com), the industry has been reshaped by the entrance of Musk's SpaceX and his [Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) rocket, which is taking market share from the longtime players in the commercial space game. A Falcon 9 launch to low-earth orbit currently costs just under $60 million per launch, the \"[cheapest rocket in the industry](https://foreignpolicy.com/2013/12/09/the-rocketeer/).\" Competitors are [scrambling](http://spacenews.com/38331spacex-challenge-has-arianespace-rethinking-pricing-policies/) to keep up.\nTo add to SpaceX's competitive advantage, on March 30 the company successfully [relaunched](https://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/nation-now/2017/03/30/spacex-successfully-relaunches-falcon-9-rocket/99846956/) a previously launched and landed first stage. Projections estimate cost savings as up to [40%](http://spacenews.com/spacexs-reusable-falcon-9-what-are-the-real-cost-savings-for-customers/). \nHow much do these launches actually cost per pound? Currently, the best-case fully loaded Falcon 9 configuration can deliver cargo to low earth orbit for [$1,233 per pound ($2,719/kg)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9#Launch_prices). In 2004, however, Musk stated that launch costs of [$500 per pound ($1100/kg)](http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12774) were \"very achievable.\"\nWhen will commercial space launch prices reach $500 per pound ($1100/kg)?\nThis question will resolve when a credible news story or corporate press release announces a launch pricing structure for any commercial space company in which the price to launch to low-earth orbit, divided by the fully-loaded cargo capacity, is less than or equal to $500 per pound or $1100 per kilogram, or the equivalent in foreign currency.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:53.290Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:41.897Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 211, "resolution_data": { @@ -48817,7 +48975,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Last September, the then-3 year old Russian chess whiz, Misha Osipov, played a [televised game](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNm72VY6yfU) against former world champion, Anatoly Karpov. Although the toddler lost, he acquitted himself well, according to chess journalists.\nEarlier this year, Misha took down chess Grandmaster, [Yuri Averbakh](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slLUZVqRuOY), in a game. While Averbakh is 95, and commentators noted that he made several obvious blunders, the very fact that a 4 year old could even challenge him was pretty amazing.\nThis [article](https://www.theringer.com/sports/2017/12/20/16796672/chess-prodigy-misha-osipov-bobby-fischer) by The Ringer puts Misha's accomplishments in context: \nIt is incredibly rare for a 3-year-old to even grasp the rules of chess, let alone play at a high level. Misha Osipov is not a grandmaster or even a master-level player, but he is still strong enough to beat many club-level adult players. His rating is high enough to place him among the top 20 of American players under the age of 7. None of those players is under the age of 5. \nFor more context, consider that the [youngest ever person](https://new.uschess.org/news/christopher-yoo-breaks-record-for-youngest-ever-master/) to achieve the chess master ranking was 9 year old David Yoo in 2016.\nWhen, if ever, will Misha become a chess master?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:55.609Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:43.038Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -48847,7 +49005,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:25:58.968Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:45.368Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -48877,7 +49035,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:00.759Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:46.799Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 251, "resolution_data": { @@ -48896,7 +49054,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. \nThe IPCC has so far produced 5 Assessment Reports:\n---[First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_First_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1990) \n---[Second](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Second_Assessment_Report) (issued in 1995) \n---[Third](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Third_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2001) \n---[Fourth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fourth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2007) \n---[Fifth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report) (issued in 2014) \n---Sixth ([scheduled to be issued in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/)) \n---Seventh (scheduled for [??](https://www.ipcc.ch/about/future-work/)) \nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its seventh Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its seventh Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the seventh Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2031, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. Supplementary reports by the IPCC, such as [the one issued in 1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_supplementary_report,_1992) do not count as an IPCC Assessment Report.\nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:02.684Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:48.117Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -48926,7 +49084,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:04.540Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:49.515Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -48956,7 +49114,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:07.046Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:50.761Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 880, "resolution_data": { @@ -48986,9 +49144,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:09.059Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:51.943Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, + "numforecasts": 154, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49016,9 +49174,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:11.507Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:53.134Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, + "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-18T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49035,7 +49193,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nBoulder County, CO hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([153](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado)) in the state of Colorado. [90](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/colorado/boulder-county/boulder) of those chargers reside in Boulder, the largest city in Boulder County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Boulder boasts a fleet of [5,342 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Boulder include Boulder Municipal Airport, Village Boulder Shopping Center, and the University of Colorado at Boulder.\nColorado offers a variety of [incentive programs](https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/state_summary?state=CO) to help fuel consumer demand. However, subsidies are expected to [fall by $2,000 in 2021](https://coloradosun.com/2020/03/09/evs-electric-vehicles-tax-incentives-refund-colorado-tesla-zev/#:~:text=Colorado%20did%20adopt%20the%20ZEV,the%20state%20legislature%20is%20passed.) and another $700 by 2023 as demand increases and adoption rates rise. Colorado recently [passed legislation](https://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb20-167) allowing consumers to buy directly from EV producers, bypassing the need for an official, established auto dealership, which should also increase access and availability of these vehicles for consumers.\nHow many DC charging stations will Boulder, CO have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Boulder, CO, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets is difficult to ascertain, and will not be used as a measurement at the city level. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:13.301Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:54.557Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -49054,7 +49212,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2030?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:16.731Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:56.996Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 81, "resolution_data": { @@ -49073,7 +49231,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is for fun and purposes of experimentation. Assuming that a biological human arrives, alive, on Mars, will the responsible entity be:\n1-- \nThe US government\n2-- \nSpaceX\n3-- \nAnother government\n4-- \nAnother corporation or private organization\n5-- \nOther (somehow)\nAlthough Metaculus does not yet have multi-ple choices, we do have multi-modes (up to 5), so just dial in the relative probabilities you want peaked around the above 5 choices. Granted, you'll have to eyeball the \"weight\" sliders until we add a better numerical readout.\nResolution will be determined by the organization for whom the person who makes the go/no go decision on setting the spacecraft down on Mars's surface, e.g. someone at NASA (or above NASA in the US government), someone at SpaceX (Musk or a successor), etc. This will remain true even if it is nominally a joint mission. Option 5 is for being taxied there by aliens, an individual building a wormhole in the basement, etc., NOT for ambiguity between 1-4, which will be instead handled via the question resolving as ambiguous.\nCloses retroactively 1 month prior to the launch leading to the landing. Resolves ambiguous if nobody makes it to Mars by 2100.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:20.529Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:27:59.801Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 233, "resolution_data": { @@ -49092,7 +49250,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The World Economic Forum and The Commons Project Foundation are launching [CommonPass](https://commonpass.org/), an app intended as \"a secure and verifiable way [for travelers] to document their health status as they travel and cross borders,\" including COVID-19 vaccination and testing information. World public opinion has largely not yet taken note, although certain bioethicists are already condemning the enshrinement of [\"immunoprivilege\"](https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/29/865048097/bioethicist-immunity-passports-could-do-more-harm-than-good); professor Douglas Kamerow of the British Medical Journal [fears a new class divide,](https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n85) but would be reassured \"if some government agencies or WHO were leading this activity\"; and the reactions of the conspiracy and anti-vax crowd online can be imagined. It is not clear yet on what basis the system will be adopted or how wide uptake will be, but major airline alliances are already signed on and the system is in the early deployment phase.\nHow many scheduled airline passengers in 2021 will verify their COVID-19 health statuses with CommonPass?\n--- \nApplies to verification of any aspect of COVID-19 status for any purpose, even if it is not a precondition of making the flight.\n--- \nIn accordance with ICAO practice, \"passengers\" means passenger-flights, ie, the same passenger on multiple flights counts multiple times.\n--- \nResolves according to official CommonPass, ICAO, or IATA statistics if and when available, or best available estimate at Metaculus/moderator discretion if no official statistics are available by the end of 2022. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:22.446Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:01.309Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -49111,7 +49269,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At some point in the future, it will become possible to derive gametes from embryonic pluripotent stem cells (PSCs). Differentiation of PCSs into eggs and sperm would provide researchers with a powerful tool for studying human gametogenesis. Perhaps even more importantly, it would allow infertile couples and same-sex couples to have offspring that is genetically related to both parents.\nA [2008 report](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/Consensus_HG08_FINAL.pdf) by the [Hinxton Group](http://www.hinxtongroup.org/)—a global network of stem cell researchers—tentatively predicted in vitro genesis of human gametes between 2013 and 2023. A number of recent papers discuss advances in the field and remaining challenges ahead.[[1](https://www.gwern.net/docs/genetics/selection/2018-yamashiro.pdf)] [[2](https://rbej.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12958-017-0308-8)] [[3](https://europepmc.org/articles/pmc6396646)]\nThe question asks: When will the first human being conceived in vitro from stem cell-derived gametes be born?\nThe question will resolve positive once a relevant announcement is made in one of the following media outlets: The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Washington Post, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, Reuters, or the BBC. The announcement should leave no doubt that the live birth occurred and that the baby was conceived from stem cell-derived gametes. The question resolves retroactively 12 months before publication of the announcement.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:24.286Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:02.919Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -49130,9 +49288,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "What is the maximum price in US dollars that Bitcoin will attain in 2021?\nMaximum price of Bitcoin in 2021?\nWe will take the maximum price of Bitcoin in nominal US Dollars over the course of 2021 from the following exchanges: Binance, Bybit and FTX, and take the median of those values. That median is considered the true maximum price.\nIf one or more of these exchanges ceases trading, the question creator will replace it with an exchange that is still in business from the following list in order: Huobi, KuCoin, Bittrex, Poloniex, Bitbay, Coinbase, Kraken. \nIf it is not possible to find 3 major exchanges that are still trading bitcoin, the question resolves with the highest value up until it was no longer possible to find 3 exchanges from the ones listed here. If a candidate maximum price happens on an exchange that goes out of business, that will still count as long as it was operating with withdrawals to fiat for at least 24 hours after that price was achieved. \nIf there is a Bitcoin hardfork we will consider the most valuable fork in dollar terms. Hardforks that have already split from bitcoin as of 25/02/2021 do not count. \nThe maximum at the time of writing is [Binance: $58352, Bybit $58399, FTX: $58355) giving a current maximum of $58399. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:27.495Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:04.127Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 247, + "numforecasts": 249, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-28T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49149,7 +49307,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "After the removal of term limits and the inclusion of his political thought in the Constitution of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping is considered the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. The question is: when will he leave - for whatever reason - the offices of Secretary General of the Communist Party of China, Chairman of the Central Military Commission, and President of the People's Republic of China?\nThe question resolves when Xi Jinping - for whatever reason - does not hold any of those offices, or offices of equal rank that replace them in case there are institutional changes.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:29.832Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:05.345Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 157, "resolution_data": { @@ -49179,9 +49337,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:35.916Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:09.157Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 443, + "numforecasts": 445, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-23T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49209,7 +49367,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:37.589Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:10.306Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 126, "resolution_data": { @@ -49239,9 +49397,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:39.380Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:11.896Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 230, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49258,7 +49416,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "When Columbus sailed to America in 1492, the \"New world\" had a fraction of the [population](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_history#/media/File:WorldPopulation.png) and [GDP](https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:1_AD_to_2003_AD_Historical_Trends_in_global_distribution_of_GDP_China_India_Western_Europe_USA_Middle_East.png) of Europe. At the time it may have seemed implausible to guess that the gap would ever be overcome. However after a series of World Wars, the relative fortune of Europe declined while America --rich in resources and isolated by two oceans-- continued to grow. Ultimately, the GDP of the USA alone would be greater than that of Western Europe after WWII.\nIt may seem similarly improbable that Mars --a planet so inhospitable it is inhabited only by robots-- would ever surpass Earth. But, history is long. If a self-sustaining colony is ever founded on Mars, it would have some chance of exceeding Earth's GDP based solely on the possibility of calamity on Earth.\nWhen will the GDP of Mars exceed that of Earth?\nThis question will resolve – on the basis of credible reporting – to December 31st of the first year in which the real GDP of Mars exceeds that of Earth.\nIf it does not resolve positive before the ending date of 3000AD, it will resolve to the upper-bound.\nIf the GDP falls into disuse, and Metaculus Admins find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nBecause of the dates involved in this question, it is unlikely any current Metaculus users will remain to collect points. Still, players are urged to predict in good faith.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:41.510Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:13.094Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 79, "resolution_data": { @@ -49288,9 +49446,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:43.322Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:14.384Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 539, + "numforecasts": 540, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-04-29T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49307,7 +49465,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2021-06-14?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2021-06-14 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown.\nAs of writing this question, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the S&P500 modifies its sector definition substantially. Specifically, it resolves ambiguously if after such a modification, either:\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of either the IT or Communications sectors by market cap that were previously in either sector are removed\n--- \nCompanies amounting to >25% of of either the IT or Communications sectors that were previously not in either sector are added\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:45.115Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:15.561Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 256, "resolution_data": { @@ -49326,7 +49484,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "--- \nThe UK’s [Fixed Term Parliaments Act](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fixed-term_Parliaments_Act_2011) fixes the date of the next general election on 2 May 2024. This is the first Thursday in May in the fifth year after the last election - held on [12 December 2019](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019). The purpose of the act was to take away the prime minister's right to choose when to call the next general election.\n--- \nThere have been three general elections since the Act was passed in 2011. Only one, the very first in 2015, was on the five-year schedule fixed by the Act. \n--- \nIn 2017, an election was called via a provision in the Act which triggers an early election if two-thirds of MPs support it. Theresa May, therefore, was able to demand an election.\n--- \nIn 2019, the Act was circumvented by a [special-purpose Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Early_Parliamentary_General_Election_Act_2019) passed through both Houses of Parliament.\n--- \nThe government has, furthermore, begun the process to [repeal the Act](https://services.parliament.uk/bills/2019-21/fixedtermparliamentsact2011repeal.html) - with the intention of returning the discretion to call elections back to the prime minister. There are some constitutional issues it creates, but the intention is to restore power over the timing of elections to the executive.\n--- \nThere has never been complete discretion over elections: even before the FTPA, parliamentary sittings could not exceed a five-year term. That has been a feature of British politics since 1911. Prior to 1911, the maximum term was 7 years. Proposals to ditch the FTPA have, to date, not envisage moving to a longer or shorter maximum term. \n--- \nHistorically, it was quite normal for parliaments not to go to term. Some PMs went early for elections because they lost their majorities in parliament - like Jim Callaghan in 1979. Sometimes it was because they figured a slightly earlier election would be easier to win than one at the five-year mark. Blair, for example, called his two elections as sitting prime minister four years into each term - in 2001 and 2005. \n--- \nGovernments going to a full five-year term have, in recent decades prior to the FTPA, been governments expecting to lose. Prime ministers delayed elections in the hope that the political temper would move in their favour. Major won a shock victory in 1992 in a vote almost 5 years after the 1987 election. He lost, five years later, in 1997. Gordon Brown held on to reach the fifth year in 2010.\nWhen will the UK hold its next general election?\nThis question will be resolved when the next UK general election is held. The relevant date is election day itself.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:46.825Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:16.711Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -49345,7 +49503,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Solar photovoltaics (PV) generate electric power by using solar cells to convert energy from the sun into a flow of electrons by the [photovoltaic effect](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photovoltaic_effect). Solar pv generated around [2% of total energy in the U.S. in 2017](https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/02/28/solar-rises-to-nearly-2-of-u-s-generation-in-2017/). In Germany, [an estimated 7%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany) of net generated electricity was solar-generated in 2017.\nSolar energy production is cleaner than most non-renewable energy production. For example, [according to the IPCC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life-cycle_greenhouse-gas_emissions_of_energy_sources#2014_IPCC,_Global_warming_potential_of_selected_electricity_sources), the life cycle CO2 equivalent of energy production by rooftop solar cells is 41 co2 equivalent per kWh, which is less than 1/10 of that from the energy production by gas.\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of solar PV was USD 0.085/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than for projects commissioned in 2017 (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average levelized cost of energy of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of utility-scale solar PV be in 2020, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.085/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:48.662Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:18.880Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 132, "resolution_data": { @@ -49364,9 +49522,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/), or Energy Information Administration, records the inventories of US and foreign produced petroleum, these inventory levels directly affect the price of petroleum sold in the United States and abroad.\nJust like any other good or service, [petroleum prices are determined by the supply and demand forces of the energy market](https://us.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=510261&cust=us&wiconly=1&lid=0#top). When the market is expanding and the economy is characterized by positive growth, inventories decrease due to high levels of demand, which causes a supply shortage, thereby jacking up prices. In contrast, when the market is contracting and the economy is slowing, there is an excess of supply as inventories build and demand drops, decreasing prices.\n[Crude oil, gas, and petroleum remain linchpins of today’s economy](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/900.htm), and contribute heavily to global employment, manufacturing, and transportation amongst other things. Because of its involvement in a variety of sectors and industries across the globe, fluctuations in price can heavily impact the direction and growth of any one, or many, economies. Changes in the price of these goods cannot impact inflation, as inflation represents the rise in price of all goods, which would keep oil’s relative price to other goods the same. However, [fluctuations in petroleum pricing can and do impact the PPF](https://www.econlib.org/oil-prices-and-inflation/) (production possibility frontier) for both itself and for other goods, which can create an effect which resembles short term changes in inflation. But here the cause for this effect stems from a change in the entire production capabilities of the economy, and not from the simple change in price from a single good.\nBecause of this, we can [observe trends in changes of consumer prices](https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2007/november/oil-prices-impact-economy/#:~:text=Oil%20price%20increases%20are%20generally,goods%20made%20with%20petroleum%20products.&text=Increases%20in%20oil%20prices%20can,the%20costs%20of%20producing%20them.). As the price of oil falls, consumer prices tend to moderate as the costs of production fall for the economy. As the price of oil increases, the cost of production for a variety of goods increases as well, raising consumer prices.\nIt is obvious that generating an understanding of oil production levels on a frequent basis is paramount to anticipating market trends and potential expansion or collapse.\nOther Related Questions:\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report January 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5784/eia-petroleum-stock-january-2021/)\n[EIA Petroleum Status Report February 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5801/eia-petroleum-stock-february-2021/)\nWhat will be the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products for April 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution criteria will be provided from the [EIA through their measurements on the weekly stocks of petroleum and other liquids](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm). This metric is recorded as the total stock of crude oil and other petroleum products excluding SPR (strategic petroleum reserve) in thousands of barrels. If this data is not released, or no longer collected, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:50.492Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:20.097Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49383,7 +49541,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In January, Chinese researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Neuroscience in Shanghai shocked the world by publishing evidence that they had [cloned](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(18)30057-6) two female macaques--[Zhong Zhong and Hua Hua](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2018/jan/24/zhong-zhong-and-hua-hua-first-primates-born-using-dolly-the-sheep-cloning-method)--using similar techniques to the ones that scientists at The Roslin Institute used to create [Dolly The Sheep](http://dolly.roslin.ed.ac.uk/facts/the-life-of-dolly/index.html) nearly twenty years ago.\nThe Chinese team put a twist on the key process--known as \"somatic cell nuclear transfer.\" Reporters at Futurism summarized their breakthrough:\n[The transfer process involves] replacing the nucleus in a donor egg with a nucleus taken from a cell from another animal. After scientists use an electric current to make the egg believe it has been fertilized, it will start to develop into an embryo that can then be implanted into a surrogate for gestation. The animal that results from the pregnancy will be a genetic copy of whatever animal donated the nucleus. In primates, the process has traditionally failed at the blastocyst stage of embryonic development. To get past this hurdle, Sun’s team added two new elements to the usual collection of nutrients and growth factors that are typically introduced to embryos prior to surrogate implantation. Those new elements, a compound called trichostatin A and messenger RNA, helped direct the DNA to grow properly by prodding hundreds of genes necessary for successful embryonic development into action.\nThey've promised not to extend their work to use on humans. But now that the genie is out of the bottle...\n(For a philosophical exploration of the implications, check out [this piece](https://medium.economist.com/if-human-cloning-happened-db76888a2069) in The Economist. It ends on this ominous, Philip K. Dick-esque note: \"given the simplicity, these days, of editing DNA, it is hard to believe there is not, somewhere in the world, just such a being preparing to celebrate its own second C-day.\")\nOn the other hand, this subject is easy to hype. We've heard promises of imminent human cloning [for a while](https://www.wired.com/2002/11/first-baby-of-2003-to-be-a-clone/) now. \nWhen do you think it will finally happen? Resolution date = the birthday of a human clone, as recorded and published in a respected scientific journal.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:52.622Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:21.281Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 170, "resolution_data": { @@ -49402,9 +49560,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Net migration to the United Kingdom was estimated to be [270,000 in 2019, down from a peak of 331,000 in the year ending March 2015](https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/long-term-international-migration-flows-to-and-from-the-uk/). Net migration prior to 2020 has been falling largely owing to Brexit and, in 2020, is expected to have fallen significantly further due to both Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.\nWhat will be net migration to the United Kingdom in 2021?\nThis will resolve on the basis of [long-term international migration statistics for the UK for the year ending December 2021](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/bulletins/migrationstatisticsquarterlyreport/may2020#eu-and-non-eu-migration-over-time) that is published by the UK Office for National Statistics.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:55.647Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:22.705Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 193, + "numforecasts": 194, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49432,7 +49590,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:57.550Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:24.095Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -49462,7 +49620,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:26:59.486Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:25.436Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 235, "resolution_data": { @@ -49481,7 +49639,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[80,000hours](https://80000hours.org/) is a non-profit which provides research and support to help people use their career to help solve the world's most pressing problems. It is associated with the [Centre for Effective Altruism](https://centreforeffectivealtruism.org/), and also produces the popular 80,000hours [podcast](https://80000hours.org/podcast/).\nMuch of the focus of 80,000hours is supporting people to move into one of their [priority paths](https://80000hours.org/career-reviews/#our-priority-paths), which they see as \"one of [the] highest-impact options\" for those who have \"the potential to excel\" in those paths.\nIn 2020, the priority paths are:\n--- \nAI policy and strategy research and implementation\n--- \nAI safety technical researcher\n--- \nGrantmaker focused on top areas\n--- \nWork in effective altruism organisations\n--- \nGlobal priorities researcher\n--- \nBiorisk strategy and policy\n--- \nChina specialists\n--- \nEarning to give in quant trading\n--- \nDecision-making psychology research and policy roles\nThis question resolves as the number of priority paths listed as \"priority paths\" on the 80,000hours website on 2030/1/1, which either exactly match, or are \"essentially the same as\" one of the priority paths listed above. \"Essentially the same\" should be judged by a Metaculus Admin.\nIf 80,000hours no longer lists \"priority paths\", for any reason, this question resolves as ambiguous, not as 0.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:01.339Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:26.908Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -49511,7 +49669,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:03.323Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:28.176Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 279, "resolution_data": { @@ -49530,7 +49688,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Surface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nIn 2017, the 3-year simple moving average of the increase in temperature relative to the 1951-1980 base period reached the highest level at 0.95°C. This means that it was on average 0.95°C hotter over the 2015 to 2017 period (inclusive) relative to the base period.\nWhen will the global annual mean surface air temperature moving average first exceed 1.3°C relative to the 1951-1980 base period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the first year when the 3-year moving average of the change in global annual mean surface air is 1.31°C or higher. The question resolves as January 1st of the year in which this first happens. This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here, and the associated moving averages](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:07.037Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:30.764Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -49549,9 +49707,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "While vaccine hesitancy [remains high at 42% in the US](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx), public health officials are aiming to have the vaccine widely available as soon as possible.\nVarious officials have estimated when a vaccine will be widely available.\n[Director of NIAID Anthony Fauci](https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/11/10/fauci-coronavirus-vaccine-availability-timeline-tapper-intv-lead-vpx.cnn) estimated \"as early as April\":\nWhen asked when normal people with no prioritization factors would have access to a vaccine, Fauci responded \"We are talking by April, by the end of April, I think\".\n[HHS Secretary Alex Azar](https://www.today.com/video/hhs-secretary-alex-azar-vaccine-could-be-widely-distributed-by-march-or-april-95635525920) estimated by \"March or early April\":\nIt’s estimated the government will have enough coronavirus vaccine... \"for all Americans by March or early April to have general vaccination programs.”\n[Former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-scott-gottlieb-discusses-coronavirus-on-face-the-nation-november-22-2020/) estimated \"heading into fall 2021\"\n\"And I think by the second quarter of 2021, maybe into the third quarter, we'll have a vaccine that hopefully will be licensed for general use if everything goes well and the data continues to support the safety and effectiveness of that vaccine. And we'll be able to vaccinate the public or a good portion of the public heading into the fall of 2021.\"\nWhen will a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be widely available for adults in the United States?\nThis question resolves on the date that the first reliable media report is published that states a government official leading either the CDC, HHS, NIH, NIAID, FDA, or the official tasked with leading distribution (currently General Perna) states that the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine is generally available in the United States for healthy non-pregnant adults with no other qualification nationwide.\nSimilar language to widely available, such as \"generally available\" or \"available for all who want it\", is also sufficient to close and resolve this question.\nTo be considered widely available, it needs to not be conditioned on a demand limiting device such as a lottery. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:08.986Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:32.028Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 492, + "numforecasts": 496, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-05T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49579,7 +49737,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:10.696Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:33.165Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 34, "resolution_data": { @@ -49598,7 +49756,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 2019, over 400 people have been cryopreserved ([175 at Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/AboutAlcor/membershipstats.html), [183 at the Cryonics Insitute](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/), [71 at KrioRus](https://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)), and many more people are members of cryonics organisations with arrangements to be cryopreserved after their deaths.\nCryopreservation currently involves replacing blood with a cryoprotectant and slowly cooling down a body to liquid nitrogen temperatures for long-term storage. The hope is that this preserves enough of the structure of the brain that, with advanced enough future technology, revival will eventually be possible.\nChances of revival may also be increasing over time, as [cryopreservation techniques become better](https://waitbutwhy.com/2016/03/cryonics.html) and the institutional knowledge to get people cryopreserved sooner after death develops.\nI thus ask to what extent revival will be possible for people preserved in the next 30 years:\nWhat percentage of people who were initially cryopreserved between 2020 and 2050 will be revived by 2200?\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:12.467Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:34.383Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -49628,9 +49786,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:14.741Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:35.849Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 592, + "numforecasts": 593, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -49658,7 +49816,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:16.962Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:37.091Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { @@ -49688,7 +49846,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:18.982Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:38.407Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 865, "resolution_data": { @@ -49707,7 +49865,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In economics, the supply and demand model predicts that a minimum wage will cause unemployment if it is set above the equilibrium wage. The minimum wage is a [price floor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_floor) on labor, and the S+D model predicts that binding price floors lead to surpluses, with more willing sellers than buyers.\nHowever, the recent empirical results on minimum wage effects have been mixed, and the issue appears to be contentious among economists. In the U.S., the results of the 2020 election have put the minimum wage issue back on the table, and some increase appears likely per some other questions:\n---[Will the federal minimum wage increase in the United States before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3631/will-the-federal-minimum-wage-increase-in-the-united-states-before-2025/) (currently at median of 89%). \n---[If Joe Biden becomes president, what will the federal minimum wage be at the end of 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (roughly 95% of the distribution is over the current wage of $7.25). \nThe University of Chicago's [Initiative on Global Markets](https://www.igmchicago.org/) surveys panels of top economists on issues of public policy. IGM recently conducted two surveys on the minimum wage: one for the [U.S.](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage/) and one for [Europe](https://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/the-us-minimum-wage-2/). The distribution of opinion on employment effects was broad and also differed substantially between the continents. In the U.S., 45% agreed or strongly agreed that an increase from $7.25 to $15 would reduce employment, 33% were uncertain, and 14% disagreed. In Europe, 23% agreed, 40% were uncertain, and 15% disagreed.\nLet's exploit the possibility of an upcoming minimum wage increase to get a handle on the truth. [This question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) gives us a range of possible minimum wage levels that could be set at the end of 2024. Roughly speaking, the 25th percentile is $10 and the 75th percentile is $15. We can use questions of the form, if the federal minimum wage is in [X, Y], what will the employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?, and compare how the employment-to-population ratio is expected to vary with minimum wage level. The premises we will want to compare are:\n---If the minimum wage is $10 or less (inclusive) — this question. \n---[If the minimum wage is $15 or greater (inclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6626/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-15/). \n---For completeness, [if the minimum wage is $10-$15 (exclusive)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6627/minimum-wage-impact-on-employment-10-15/). \nIf the federal minimum wage is $10 or less at the end of 2024, what will the average employment-to-population ratio be in 2025?\nFor the purposes of this question, all dollar figures are given in nominal terms.\n\nClosing condition\n\nThis question closes (retroactively) to the earliest of:\n1-- \nThe date when any of the three premises mentioned above falls to < 10% on [the minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/). That is, the first date when the cumulative probability between [0, 10] is less than 10%, or between (10, 15) is less than 10%, or between [15, ∞) is less than 10%.\n2-- \nThe resolution date of the [minimum wage level question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4470/if-joe-biden-becomes-president-what-will-the-federal-minimum-wage-be-at-the-end-of-2024/) (the date when it actually resolves).\n3-- \nThe closing date stated on this question.\nThe reason for this strange closing condition is that the purpose of these questions is to compare outcomes across counterfactual scenarios. In order for the questions to be worth predicting on, they need to have some reasonable probability of resolving unambiguously. So we want to close the questions once we have high confidence which scenario we are in.\n\nResolution details\n\nThe resolution criteria require evaluating two measures: the minimum wage at the end of 2024, and the average employment-to-population ratio over 2025.\nFor the purposes of this question, \"minimum wage\" refers to the federal minimum wage for covered nonexempt employees. The minimum wage will be decided by the [US Department of Labor](https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage) website. This question is about the active minimum wage at the end of 2024, so if a bill is passed in 2024 that mandates a certain minimum wage in 2025, that will not be considered. If that website does not give information on the minimum wage (or lack thereof), this question will resolve based on credible media reports.\nIf there is no minimum wage, the minimum wage will be considered to be $0.\nIf the minimum wage is greater than $10.00 at end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguous.\nFor the employment-to-population ratio, we will use the BLS figures as summarized by the [FRED EMRATIO series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/EMRATIO), averaged over the year of 2025 (you can see this by clicking on the gear icon on the top right, changing the frequency to Annual, and using the Average aggregation method). If this method no longer works, we will resolve by aggregating over the BLS monthly reports manually.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:20.919Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:40.162Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -49726,7 +49884,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The website [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) keeps track of the lowest cost hard drives per byte by country. As of April 6th 2020, the cheapest hard drive per byte in the United States is 1.4 cents per GB. This comes out to 14 cents per 10 GB.\nWhat will be the average of the three cheapest-per-10GB drives reported on the site on January 1st 2025?\nIf [diskprices.com](http://diskprices.com) does not exist on January 1st 2025, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:22.846Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:41.354Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { @@ -49745,7 +49903,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [State of AI Report](https://www.stateof.ai/) is produced yearly by AI investors Nathan Benaich and Ian Hogarth. Each report includes predictions for the next year, and the authors self-evaluation of the previous report's predictions.\nThe [State of AI Report 2020](https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1ZUimafgXCBSLsgbacd6-a-dqO7yLyzIl1ZJbiCBUUT4/edit?usp=sharing) was published October 1, 2020 and contains 8 predictions for the next 12 months:\n1-- \nThe race to build larger language models continues and we see the first 10 trillion parameter model.\n2-- \nAttention-based neural networks move from NLP to computer vision in achieving state of the art results.\n3-- \nA major corporate AI lab shuts down as its parent company changes strategy.\n4-- \nIn response to US DoD activity and investment in US based military AI startups, a wave of Chinese and European defense-focused AI startups collectively raise over $100M in the next 12 months.\n5-- \nOne of the leading AI-first drug discovery startups (e.g. Recursion, Exscientia) either IPOs or is acquired for over $1B.\n6-- \nDeepMind makes a major breakthrough in structural biology and drug discovery beyond AlphaFold. \n7-- \nFacebook makes a major breakthrough in augmented and virtual reality with 3D computer vision. \n8-- \nNVIDIA does not end up completing its acquisition of Arm.\nHow many State of AI Report 2020 predictions will be judged true by their authors in the 2021 report?\nOnly prediction which receive a grade of 'yes' will be counted. Partial success grades, like 'sort of' will not count.\nResolves ambiguous if the next report is never published or it does not contain self-evaluation of the predictions.\nThe question may resolve as soon as the 2021 Report is published.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:24.661Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:42.646Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { @@ -49775,7 +49933,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:27.941Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:43.854Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 239, "resolution_data": { @@ -49794,7 +49952,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to Alexa, Amazon's web analytics company, Metaculus was linked to by 49 websites as of 2019/10/31.\nWhen will Metaculus be linked to by 130 websites, according to [Alexa analytics results](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com)?\nThis question resolves as the date when the number of referral sites, i.e. the number of sites linking to [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com) that Alexa's web crawl has found, is at least 130.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:29.897Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:45.015Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 101, "resolution_data": { @@ -49813,7 +49971,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [a report by The Good Food Institute (GFI)](https://www.gfi.org/industry), in 2018, an estimated $673 million invested was invested in companies involved in the supply chain of plant-based meat, eggs, and dairy. In that year, venture capital was the most common type of funding, representing 43% of the total 233 completed deals that year.\nHow much will be estimated to have been invested by VCs in U.S.-based plant-based meat startups, in the calendar year 2022, in millions of USD, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the amount of venture capital investment in U.S.-based plant-based companies in the calendar year 2022. The amount of investment is to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable U.S. CPI from the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nThe estimate should originate from a credible independent source, preferably by nonprofit research organisation focussing on plant-based meat and related technologies, such as the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/files/sci-tech/clean-meat-production-volume-and-medium-cost.pdf). \nFor the purpose of this question, we shall adopt the following definition of Plant-Based Meat (based on [GFI, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/new-gfi-report-illustrates-the-state-of-chinas)):\n“plant-based meat” is taken to refer to plant-based products that aim to be direct replacements for animal meat by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of animal meat, and are marketed as doing such.\nA plant-based meat company should be whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. \nFor singular investments below $20M, the admin resolving the question may solely rely on the relevant report to correctly identify plant-based meat companies. \nFor larger singular investments exceeding $20M, an admin should confirm that the recipient of the investment is indeed a company whose principal activities are those in some part of the plant-based meat supply chain. This should be done by finding at least three articles published by credible media organisations in which the company is explicitly described as a \"plant-based meat\" company within 6 months of the announcement of the investment. Descriptions should use the words \"plant-based meat\" or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"plant-based beef\" or \"plant-based burger\"), and/or variations where \"plant\" is replaced with a specific plant (e.g. \"pea-based meat\" or \"soy-protein based chicken\").\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:31.690Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:46.163Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 133, "resolution_data": { @@ -49832,7 +49990,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on December 14, 2026?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on December 14, 2026, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nGPU prices used to calculate price performance by Passmark will be converted to 2020 USD. Prices are adjusted to (average) 2020 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:33.458Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:47.364Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 189, "resolution_data": { @@ -49851,7 +50009,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "House prices are an important part of the US economy. The housing stock in the US is roughly $30T which is roughly the same order of magnitude as the US stock market. [A crash in house prices in the 2007-2008 was a driver of the financial crisis.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%932008#Growth_of_the_housing_bubble)\nWhat will US house prices be at the end of 2030?\nWhat will the Case-Shiller National Index (seasonally adjusted) adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter be in December 2030?\nSpecifically what will be the value of the December 2030 release of [S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA) be divided by the value of [CPI less shelter](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SA0L2) both divided by their values on Jan-2000.\nFor example:\n---for Jan-2000 this value is 1.0 \n---for Sep-2020 this value is: \nIf these statistics are discontinued, this resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:35.178Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:48.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 49, "resolution_data": { @@ -49881,7 +50039,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:37.290Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:50.129Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { @@ -49900,7 +50058,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice. Atari games have been a long-standing benchmark in the reinforcement learning (RL) community for the past decade.\nAt the time of writing this question, the model Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43,791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. Although this exceeds the average human performance, it's still far below the human [world record of 1,342,100](http://www.ataricompendium.com/game_library/high_scores/high_scores.html)\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/atari-games-on-atari-2600-montezumas-revenge), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest score achieved by any model that does not harness any game-specific domain knowledge on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge on 2022-01-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nDomain knowledge include the position of the agent, details about the room numbers, level numbers, and knowledge about the location of keys (for a description of 'domain knowledge' in the context of Montezuma's Revenge, see [Ecoffet et al., 2020](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12919v2.pdf)).\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:39.240Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:51.314Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 173, "resolution_data": { @@ -49919,7 +50077,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The period between 1945 and the present day has been peaceful, with no major wars between great powers. Some have argued that this degree of prolonged absence of conflict [is nothing special historically speaking and may end soon](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/are-we-middle-long-peace-or-brink-major-war), while [others](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2017.1306394) have argued this moment of calm will likely last for some time due to the deterrence effect of nuclear weapons, the unipolarity of U.S hegemony, globalisation and international trade, and the efforts of peacekeepers such as the United Nations.\nAt the time of writing, the Metaculus community [has estimated the likelihood of a 'WW3' to be 10%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/will-there-be-a-world-war-three-before-2050/).\nThe question asks: If there is a \"Third World War\", what longitude will it start in?\nLongitude will be represented on a scale of -180 to 180, with -180 representing 180°W and 180 representing 180°E. A latitude and longitude calculator can be [accessed here](https://www.latlong.net/). A static map can be [accessed here](https://i.imgur.com/pGcQMnf.png).\nMany wars are precipitated by regionally-confined international incidents resulting in a clear chain of events producing wider-scale conflict. The answer will be determined by either the longitude of the location of the incident precipitating a WW3 scenario, or the longitude of the region where the first direct confrontation takes place with as much specificity as possible. If the incident/confrontation is geographically long-range in nature (e.g the launch of an ICBM from North Korea to New York), the starting location will be used. If no such location can be identified with the consensus of three moderators, either two years into or following a WW3 scenario, the answer will resolve as ambiguous. \nLikewise, the question will resolve as ambiguous if the following conditions for a \"Third World War\" are not met by the resolve date:\n--- \nConsensus that a state of war exists between at least five G20 member-states, spread out over at least five continents (North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and/or Australasia)\n--- \nConflicts between these states has resulted in an excess of ten million deaths and/or damage amounting to 40% or more of global GDP at its level when the first hostilities began.\nThis question is accompanied by an identical entry, posing the same question except with latitude. It can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3868/if-there-is-a-third-world-war-what-latitude-will-it-start-in/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:42.748Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:54.168Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 100, "resolution_data": { @@ -49938,7 +50096,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is between $8 and $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is less than $8 or greater than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $8 or above $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:44.560Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:55.448Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 143, "resolution_data": { @@ -49957,7 +50115,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question simply asks:\nWhen will the first baby be born away from Earth?\nThe question will resolve when the first alive human baby be born away from Earth. The distance from the surface of Earth at the moment of the birth must be at least 80km. If it doesn't happen before 2120, then the question will resolve at >2120.\nSimilar questions:\n---[Will humans have a sustainable off-world presence by 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1432/will-humans-have-a-sustainable-off-world-presence-by-2100/) \n---[One Million Martian Residents by 2075?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:46.596Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:56.603Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -49987,7 +50145,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:50.114Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:28:59.083Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 377, "resolution_data": { @@ -50017,7 +50175,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:27:51.985Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:00.275Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 146, "resolution_data": { @@ -50036,7 +50194,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Parallel question for: [Denmark](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5638/max-excess-death-score-for-denmark-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. [The Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project) platform](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Hungary has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change.\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Hungary for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from [the Euromomo site](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) on the day of resolution, which should provide enough time for the remaining numbers to come in. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:28:58.837Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:01.920Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { @@ -50055,7 +50213,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [\"nones\" are rising faster than ever in America](http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/05/13/a-closer-look-at-americas-rapidly-growing-religious-nones/), but globally, non-religious people are currently shrinking as a percentage of the population. Conflicting trends of economic development, evangelism, and fertility complicate predictions of world religiosity.\nPer a [Pew Research Center](http://www.pewforum.org/2015/04/02/religious-projections-2010-2050/) study from 2015, as reported by [Psychology Today](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-secular-life/201510/how-many-atheists-are-there):\n1.1 billion people [do not identify with any religion]... which equals about 16.5% of the global adult population. As such, “non-religious” is actually the third largest “religion” in the world, coming only behind Christianity (in first place) and Islam (in second).\nAt the same time, the Pew study projects that as a percentage of the population, non-theists will decline to just 13% by mid-century. One obvious reason is that \n[r]eligions with many adherents in developing countries – where birth rates are high, and infant mortality rates generally have been falling – are likely to grow quickly. ...[R]eligiously unaffiliated population[s], by contrast, [are] heavily concentrated in places with low fertility and aging populations, such as Europe, North America, China and Japan.\nImportantly, Pew's projections have not attempted to wade into controversial social theories suggesting that economic development and religiosity are inversely linked. As the report explains, this has been the \"general experience in some parts of the world, notably Europe,\" but it is \"not yet clear whether it is a universal pattern.\" Indeed, there is [some evidence](https://www.smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/understanding-rapid-rise-charismatic-christianity-southeast-asia) that amongst China's 1.4 billion citizens, increasing affluence may be correlated with or even driving increasing religiosity.\nConsidering all of these conflicting factors, go ahead and second-guess Pew's projections: \nWhat will the portion of the global population identifying as \"religiously unaffiliated\" be in 2050? \nThe resolution occurs if/when a study of comparable quality, scope, and methods to the [Pew study](http://assets.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/11/2014/01/global-religion-full.pdf) is published before 2060 quoting a number for \"religiously unaffiliated\" pertaining to some date within 3 years of 2050. Note that this group includes atheist and agnostic, but also people who do not identify with any particular religion in surveys (but who may nonetheless have non-specific spiritual or cultural belief systems).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:00.653Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:03.320Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 184, "resolution_data": { @@ -50074,7 +50232,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "“In economics, the [Gini coefficient](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gini_coefficient#:~:text=The%20Gini%20coefficient%20is%20a,from%20a%20totally%20equal%20distribution.) (/ˈdʒiːni/ JEE-nee), sometimes called the Gini index or Gini ratio, is a measure of statistical dispersion intended to represent the income inequality or wealth inequality within a nation or any other group of people. It was developed by the Italian statistician and sociologist Corrado Gini and published in his 1912 paper Variability and Mutability (Italian: Variabilità e mutabilità).”\nUsed to measure a country’s income inequality across the globe, the Gini Index has recently been appropriated by the ACS (American Community Services) to measure income inequality between households across the states and territories of the United States. [The index](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/acs-1year.html#:~:text=The%20Gini%20index%20is%20a,has%20all%20of%20the%20income.) ranges from 0 to 1, with complete equality at 0 and complete inequality at 1. Currently, most states and territories lie between the [0.4 and 0.5](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf) mark, with several notable exceptions above the 0.5 mark including Puerto Rico, New York, Connecticut, and Washington D.C.\nBy 2018, income inequality in the US was the [worst out of all the G7 nations](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/02/07/6-facts-about-economic-inequality-in-the-u-s/) with a Gini coefficient of .434. With the onset of the global Coronavirus pandemic in 2020, these inequalities have grown even greater.\n“Low-income populations are more exposed to the health risks and more likely to experience job losses and declines in well-being. These effects are even more concentrated in economically disadvantaged minorities. The pandemic is not only exacerbated by the deprivations and vulnerabilities of those left behind by rising inequality but its fallout is [pushing inequality higher.](https://www.brookings.edu/research/tackling-the-inequality-pandemic-is-there-a-cure/)” \nPredictions should represent the total number of US states and territories with reported Gini Indices above 0.5 as calculated by the US Census Bureau. \nHow many US states and territories will have an ACS GINI coefficient over 0.5 by 2025?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data is available from the ACS between 2018 and 2019, and general Gini Index information on a country wide level is also available [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?type=shaded&view=map&year=1967) with historical data reaching back to the 1960’s.\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThe resolution for this question will be provided through the United States Census Bureau and their [annual report on household income](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.html). It will come from their 2025 annual report, for which an example report from 2019 can be found [here](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2020/acs/acsbr20-03.pdf).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:02.476Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:04.479Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -50104,7 +50262,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:06.170Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:06.002Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 433, "resolution_data": { @@ -50134,7 +50292,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:08.140Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:07.182Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -50164,7 +50322,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:09.974Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:08.396Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 236, "resolution_data": { @@ -50194,7 +50352,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:12.038Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:09.569Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { @@ -50213,7 +50371,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[Structured Query Language (SQL)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SQL) is a domain-specific language used to manipulate and query data in relational databases. \n[WikiSQL](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.00103.pdf) is a corpus of 80654 hand-annotated instances of natural language questions, SQL queries, and SQL tables extracted from 24241 HTML tables from Wikipedia.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is [IE-SQL +Execution-Guided Decoding](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1t3xEltqKpYJGYekAhQ5vYFen1ocHJ3sY/view), which achieves logical form accuracy of 87.8 on the WikiSQL test set.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language text-to-SQL performance on WikiSQL be at 2021-06-14 in logical form test accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest logical form accuracy by any model on the test set of WikiSQL up until 2021-06-14.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. Qualifying models may be trained on other datasets besides WikiSQL.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:13.818Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:10.817Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 216, "resolution_data": { @@ -50232,7 +50390,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nEvery quarter, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an Advance Estimate of GDP growth in the previous three months. The Advance Estimate is the first estimate of gross domestic product and its components for a quarter.\nYou can see historical quarterly GDP growth rates for the [United States here](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth).\nThe US economy expanded by an annualized 33.1% in Q3 2020, beating forecasts of a 31% surge. It was the biggest expansion ever, following a record 31.4% plunge in Q2, as the economy rebounds from the coronavirus pandemic. Metaculus estimates the [Q4 GDP growth rate](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5660/us-q4-2020-gdp-growth-rate/) for 2020 will be approximately 8.44%.\nWhat will the US Q1 2021 annualized GDP growth rate be according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis Advance Estimate?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis data is expected to be released sometime in early Q2 2021. Resolution should cite the BEA's Advance Estimate, rather than any later revisions.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:15.820Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:11.982Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 166, "resolution_data": { @@ -50262,7 +50420,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:17.613Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:13.167Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 69, "resolution_data": { @@ -50281,7 +50439,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Egg production during the year [ending November 30, 2018 totalled 109 billion eggs](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/m326m852c/dz010x51j/ckegan19.pdf), up 2 percent from 2017.\nIn 2013, 95.2 billion eggs were produced in the United States, [according to the USDA](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/1v53jw96n/s7526f739/g445cg75q/ChickEgg-02-27-2014.pdf). Yearly figures for total egg production can be found on the [USDA webpage](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en#release-items).\nHow many billions of hen eggs will be produced in the U.S. in the year ending in November 2023?\nResolution\nThis resolves as the number of hen eggs produced in the year ending November 30th, 2023. Numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place (e.g. 95.049 qualifies as 95.0). Resolution will be based on the data in USDA's [Chickens and Eggs Annual Summary](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/1v53jw96n?locale=en). This question resolves ambiguously if the USDA no longer reports these figures.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:19.455Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:15.617Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 157, "resolution_data": { @@ -50294,25 +50452,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:22.762Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 40, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "On 2021-12-31, will the FiveThirtyEight average of polls indicate that Joe Biden has a higher approval than disapproval rating?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6635/bidens-approval-to-exceed-disapproval-rating/", @@ -50330,9 +50469,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:24.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:16.897Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 178, + "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50343,13 +50482,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "What will be the 13 month moving average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25's minimum?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5046/what-will-be-the-13-month-moving-average-of-sunspots-around-solar-cycle-25s-minimum/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n-------\n\nGiven that the number of sunspots is subject to large fluctuations on both daily and monthly time scales, [aggregating a 13-month boxcar average](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf) with half-weights on the first and last month can be a helpful indication of the average number of sunspots over an extended period. This smoothing process is frequently used when charting solar activity over time, and it effectively tracks long-term changes in sunspot numbers over the entirety of a solar cycle. \nThe [13-month boxcar average](http://www.sidc.be/silso/infosnmstot) is calculated using the monthly average numbers of sunspots, Rm (found using Wolf’s Number).\nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles can be generated](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z). \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric [drag can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, differ wildly. We thus ask:\nWhat will be the 13-month mean sunspot number for the year of Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/ssngraphics)) site records the number of sunspots per month with individual and group numbers, as well as monthly means. Using the monthly numbers from this site the 13-month mean can be computed once sufficient time has elapsed.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:18.052Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 40, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-10-02T00:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2034-01-11T01:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the English Wikipedia have 10 million articles?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3623/when-will-the-english-wikipedia-have-10-million-articles/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The English Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has approximately 6 million articles at the time of writing this question.\nThis question resolves on the date during which the 10 millionth Wikipedia article is created, according to official internal statistics from Wikipedia, such as [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:26.516Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:19.351Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { @@ -50368,9 +50526,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "When will Elon Musk have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain?\nThis question resolves positively if it is confirmed by reputable sources that Elon Musk has been subjected to surgery that inserted (parts of) a device into his brain tissue, for any reason other than monitoring or alleviating a disease and/or impairment. This device does not have to function in any specific way (or any way at all) for a positive resolution. For positive resolution, the implantation of at least part of the device needs to involve an intra-cranial insertion (hence a non-invasive headset system like [OpenBCI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OpenBCI) or [OpenWater](https://www.openwater.cc/) does not count). However, the part of the device inserted may be very small, e.g. an array of very thin threads such as those described in the [Neuralink paper](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/biorxiv/early/2019/07/17/703801.full.pdf) would count. The specific device does not have to be one manufactured by [Neuralink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuralink), and it does not need to be available to any member of the general public or approved by regulatory agencies.\nThe question resolves as >2040 if Elon Musk is still alive on the 1st of January, 2040, and Elon Musk did not have any device, such as a brain-machine interface, surgically implanted into his brain before this date. The question resolves ambiguous if Elon Musk does not have a device implanted and passes away before the end of the calender year 2040.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:28.454Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:20.582Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 209, + "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-25T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50398,7 +50556,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:31.024Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:22.304Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 228, "resolution_data": { @@ -50411,13 +50569,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:23.976Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 735, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "How much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions from December 2020 to January 2022?\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2022-01-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2022-01-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O*NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the December 2020 values the 2022-01-14 values.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:32.959Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:25.173Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 151, "resolution_data": { @@ -50430,32 +50607,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5773/united-states-covid-herd-immunity-230m-date/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Widescale SARS-CoV-2 vaccines are soon expected to be administered in the United States under FDA approved Emergency Use Authorizations. If and when a sufficient number of people receive these vaccines, in combination with immunity provided through naturally occurring antibodies among those previously infected, the population is expected to reach [herd immunity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity).\n[Current research suggests](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3) that herd immunity for COVID-19 is expected when 60-70% of a population is immune to the virus, either through vaccination or past infection.\nEarly results from the [Moderna](https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/promising-interim-results-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine) and [Pfizer/BioNTech](https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/18/pfizer-biontech-covid19-vaccine-fda-data/) vaccines suggest efficacy >90%.\n[Early research results](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.15.383323v1) also suggest that SARS-CoV-2 immunity is long-lasting and may be consistent with the long term immunity observed in SARS.\nOn November 22nd, Dr. Slaoui, leader of Operation Warp Speed, [stated that](https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/22/politics/operation-warp-speed-vaccine-timeline/index.html) he expects herd immunity to likely be achieved in May 2021.\n70% or so of the population being immunized would allow for true herd immunity to take place, that is likely to happen somewhere in the month of May, or something like that based on our plans. Dr. Slaoui, November 22nd, 2020\nHowever, vaccine hestitancy may be high, with [42% of Americans](https://news.gallup.com/poll/325208/americans-willing-covid-vaccine.aspx) in late October 2020 saying they would be unwilling to take a SARS-CoV-2.\nWhen will the United States reach herd immunity (>230M) for COVID-19?\nThis question resolves as the date when the first reliable media report is published that states that >230M of the US population (~70%) have either received a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine or has been previously been infected by the virus.\nWhile this question is intended as an operationalization of \"herd immunity\", because herd immunity is difficult to ascertain, the resolution criteria is not herd immunity itself, but rather reaching 230M (~70%) either vaccinated or having been previously infected, as a proxy indicator.\nIf this does not resolve before 31 December 2022, it resolves as >31 December 2022. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:35.291Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 724, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-11-28T10:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-12-31T20:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "What will the peak population of Antarctica be by 2075?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3999/what-will-the-peak-population-of-antarctica-be-by-2075/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Antarctica](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica) remains as the last continent without a significant human presence. The southern landmass is presently governed by the terms of the [Antarctic Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System), which prohibits military activities and mineral mining, prohibits nuclear explosions and nuclear waste disposal, supports scientific research, and protects the continent's ecozone. As a result, Antarctica has very little to no long-term human population, which consists of roughly 5000 researchers in the summer and only 1000 during winter.\nBut will this always be the case? The southern continent [has been heating up](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/13/antarctic-temperature-rises-above-20c-first-time-record) along with the rest of the planet and could potentially become more habitable, and/or more amenable to resource exploitation. In addition, the Antarctic treaty will come under review [in 2048](https://theconversation.com/in-30-years-the-antarctic-treaty-becomes-modifiable-and-the-fate-of-a-continent-could-hang-in-the-balance-98654).\nWhat will the peak population of humans residing in Antarctica have been by 2075-01-01? \nWe will define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors (via a chain of live births from mothers) circa 1900 humans OR who could mate with circa 1900 humans to produce viable offspring. Entities such as AIs, [ems](http://ageofem.com/), genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count. \nResolution will be by UN data, if possible. If the UN will no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution will be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data source.\nInspired by [this comment](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/#comment-25412) of user @j.m. on the [similar question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3519/one-million-martian-residents-by-2075/) about Mars.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:37.116Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:26.416Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { @@ -50474,7 +50632,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Construction of an EPR ([European Presurised Reactor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)#Flamanville_3_(France))) at the Flamanville Nuclear Power Plant officially started in December 2007. Construction was supposed to take 54 months (i.e. until mid-2012) for a total cost of €3.3 billion.\nFast forward to July 25th 2018, when [EDF](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%C3%89lectricit%C3%A9_de_France) (Électricité de France) [announced that](http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-revises-schedule,-costs-of-Flamanville-EPR) the project was once more delayed and the expected completion date pushed back to 2020 at the earliest, with a total budget of €10.9 billion.\nThe question is then : when will the Flamanville EPR be finished?\nResolution shall be by credible media report that the reactor is online and producing electricity (including for testing purposes).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:38.913Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:27.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { @@ -50493,7 +50651,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-01 to 2026-12-31 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:40.727Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:29.225Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 164, "resolution_data": { @@ -50512,9 +50670,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "AZD1222 (the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine) has been approved for use by [the United Kingdom](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/oxford-universityastrazeneca-vaccine-authorised-by-uk-medicines-regulator) and granted emergency use authorization by [Argentina](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-argentina-astrazen/argentine-regulator-approves-astrazeneca-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-idUSKBN29421P), [El Salvador](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-el-salvador-vaccin/el-salvador-greenlights-astrazeneca-oxford-university-covid-19-vaccine-idINKBN2942HQ), and [India](https://in.reuters.com/article/health-coronavirus-india-vaccine-idINKBN296290). This vaccine has been highly anticipated, [promising benefits](https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna) such as stable storage in normal refrigerators and doses costing $3 to $4.\nHowever, as of January 3rd, Phase III trials are still ongoing. These trials have had issues, including a [failure to roll out a consistent dosing regimen](https://www.wired.com/story/the-astrazeneca-covid-vaccine-data-isnt-up-to-snuff/) and less than transparent disclosure.\nThe United States has pre-ordered [500m doses of the vaccine](https://launchandscalefaster.org/COVID-19), by far their largest order. However, the head of Operation Warp Speed was [reported as saying](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/30/astrazeneca-vaccine-april-452371):\nAmericans likely won’t receive AstraZeneca's coronavirus vaccine before April because of lingering questions about its effectiveness in certain groups.\nWhen will the AstraZeneca/Oxford developed SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be granted emergency use authorization by the US FDA?\nThis question retroactively closes when the first reliable media report is published stating that AZD1222 has been submitted to the FDA for EUA. It resolves on the date when the FDA issues a statement (such as [this](https://www.fda.gov/emergency-preparedness-and-response/coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19/moderna-covid-19-vaccine) for the Moderna vaccine) reporting the issuing of an emergency use authorization for AZD1222. If a EUA is never granted, this resolves as >2021-12-31. If the EUA application is rejected, and later resubmitted, the close date will not change.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:42.522Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:30.731Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 257, + "numforecasts": 260, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50542,7 +50700,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:44.409Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:33.030Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 166, "resolution_data": { @@ -50561,7 +50719,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[The Occupational Information Network (O*NET)](https://www.onetonline.org/) is a free online database that contains hundreds of occupational definitions to help students, job seekers, businesses and workforce development professionals to understand today's world of work in the United States.\nO*NET reports its estimate of the current level of the “degree of automation” for each job in its database. The scale ranges from 0 to 100 (0=slightly automated; 50=moderately automated; 75=highly automated; 100=completely automated).\nFor the purpose of this question, the key profession are the following (with the degree of automation in December 2020 in brackets):\nGeneral and Operations Managers (32); Registered Nurses (26); Software Quality Assurance Analysts and Testers (39); Compliance Managers (18); Regulatory Affairs Managers (17); Retail Salespersons (29); Fast Food and Counter Workers (32); Cashiers (23); Customer Service Representatives (46); Lawyers (22); Treasurers and Controllers (40); Financial Managers (39); Baristas (41); Personal Care Aides (16); Wind Energy Operations Managers (39)\nThe average degree of automation of these professions is 30.6.\nHow much will the average degree of automation change for key US professions change from December 2020 to December 2026?\nThis question resolves as the percentage change in the average degree of automation from the values in December 2020 (listed above) to the values on 2026-12-14 according to O-NET. Note in particular that:\n--- \nthe question resolves as the percent change from 30.6 to the value on 2026-12-14, not the average point change\n--- \npositive number represent an increase of the degree in automation, and negative numbers represent a decrease in the degree of automation\nIf any of the listed profession is no longer reported by O-NET, the calculation is to be done with the relevant profession dropped from both the mean for December 2020 and for the values on 2026-12-14.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:47.480Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:34.542Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 148, "resolution_data": { @@ -50580,7 +50738,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In March 2018 an autonomous Uber car [killed a woman in the street in Arizona.](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/19/technology/uber-driverless-fatality.html) This is likely to set back developments and make cumbersome legislation more likely. \nWhen will the next fatality happen in an event involving a fully autonomous vehicle? \nAutopilot crashes are not included for this question, only fully autonomous ones in which there is no default-to-driver mechanism. Resolution is positive regardless of whether the autonomous vehicle is ultimately ruled to be \"at fault\" or not (as this may ambiguous.)\nNote: obviously car fatalities are tragic, and no attempt is made to take these cases lightly. But having a sense for how likely fatalities are might be important.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:49.259Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:35.893Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 246, "resolution_data": { @@ -50599,7 +50757,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the view that future AI systems will be conscious?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"future AI systems\" on the question \"for which groups are some members conscious?\" (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:51.052Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:37.236Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -50629,7 +50787,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:52.927Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:38.473Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -50648,7 +50806,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer. The [Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool) put relatively small error margins around this global figure: the lower and upper estimates extend from 8.75 to 9.1 million.\nAs of 2013 in the United States, the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers (for both sexes) [was 69.2%](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08). As you can see from this chart by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates), the survival rate has been steadily increasing. For example, in 1977 the figure was 48.9%\nWhen will the mean 5-year relative survival rate of all cancers for both sexes in the United States exceed 75.0%?\nThis resolves positive if at some future date, the 5-year survival rates will have been reported to exceed 75.0%. This question will refer to data Published by the [National Cancer Institute](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=1&pageSEL=sect_01_table.05.html) or any other reputable source of medical statistics.\nClarification (2021-02-17), this question resolves as the earliest diagnosis year such that the 5-Year Relative Survival (percent for those patients exceeds 75. For example, a similar question about the 65% survival rate would have resolved as 1999, according [to NIH data](https://seer.cancer.gov/archive/csr/1975_2014/browse_csr.php?sectionSEL=2&pageSEL=sect_02_table.08).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:54.703Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:40.014Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 141, "resolution_data": { @@ -50678,9 +50836,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:56.660Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:41.238Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 176, + "numforecasts": 177, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-10-02T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50708,7 +50866,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:29:58.770Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:42.438Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { @@ -50727,9 +50885,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to Freedom House, an NGO, China’s authoritarian regime has become increasingly repressive in recent years. The ruling Chinese Communist Party is tightening its control over the media, online speech, religious groups, and civil society associations while undermining already modest rule-of-law reforms.\nLast year, [Party authorities tightened political, social, and media restrictions in Beijing and across China in the months ahead of the October gathering](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/06/chinas-golden-week-ends-but-the-communist-party-congress-will-keep-the-holiday-mood-up.html ). Implementation of a [Cybersecurity Law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Internet_Security_Law) and other new regulations resulted in a crackdown on VPNs, penalties for private technology companies whose censorship measures were deemed insufficient, tighter enforcement of [real-name registration rules online](https://techcrunch.com/2017/08/27/china-doubles-down-on-real-name-registration-laws-forbidding-anonymous-online-posts/ ), and greater pressure on users to censor themselves and each other.\n[New regulations that took effect in February 2018 further restricted the scope for religious freedoms](https://www.chinasource.org/blog/posts/new-religion-regulations-to-take-effect-in-february), particularly for children’s religious education. [An already massive security presence in Xinjiang grew](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/23/in-chinas-far-west-experts-fear-a-ticking-timebomb-religious), [and restrictions on free expression, travel, and religious practice in the region expanded](https://www.vox.com/2018/8/15/17684226/uighur-china-camps-united-nations) to affect not only Uighurs but also Kazakhs and other Muslim ethnic minorities, many of whom were detained on the pretext of countering terrorism and possibly [up to a million Uighurs may have been sent to extralegal political indoctrination centers](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-rights-un/u-n-calls-on-china-to-free-uighurs-from-re-education-camps-idUSKCN1LF1D6 ) .\nAccording to [Freedom House's 2018 report](https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2018/china), the condition of Chinese Political Rights (i.e. the state of its electoral process, the extent of political pluralism and participation, the functioning of its government, and discretionary political rights) deteriorated to its lowest point in at least 15 years in 2017.\nThe reported condition of Civil Liberties (i.e. freedom of expression and belief, associational and organisational freedoms, the rule of law, and personal autonomy and individual rights) have only slightly worsened since 2005.\nFreedom House reports annual scores of Chinese Political Rights (with a score 0-40: 0=Least Free 40=Most Free) and Civil Liberties (with a score 0-60: 0=Least Free 60=Most Free). The current scores for China are 0 for Political Rights, and 14 for Civil Liberties. The Total Aggregate score is the sum of these two scores. 2017’s aggregate score is therefore 14.\nWhat will be the total aggregate score given to China by Freedom House in 2028?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves as ambiguous if their reports are discontinued.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:00.611Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:43.632Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 156, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-22T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50757,7 +50915,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:02.953Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:44.873Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 216, "resolution_data": { @@ -50776,7 +50934,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For the past 43 elections (i.e., starting in 1852), the winner of every presidential election has been a Republican or a Democrat. For the past 27 elections (i.e., starting in 1916), even the runner-up has belonged to one of these two parties. These parties' combined share of the popular vote has averaged about 95% for the past 100 years.\nYet [surveys often find that large numbers of Americans say they'd like another party to emerge](https://news.gallup.com/poll/244094/majority-say-third-party-needed.aspx). Political independents in the US are a famously heterogeneous demographic, so coalescence around a single candidate may be unlikely. But the combined votes for all so-called \"third-party candidates\" has sometimes driven the Dem + Rep share to below 90%.\nWhat percentage of the US 2024 presidential popular vote will the Democratic and Republican parties (combined) receive?\nThis resolves as the sum of all votes for the Republican Party or Democratic Party nominees in the 2024 US presidential election, divided by the total number of votes. The value is in percentage points. So a prediction of 95.7 means the Dem + Rep share is 95.7%.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:04.786Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:46.046Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 53, "resolution_data": { @@ -50795,9 +50953,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, the heaviest known element is [oganesson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oganesson), with 118 protons. It was first synthesised in 2002 by the [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Institute_for_Nuclear_Research), by firing calcium-48 ions at a californium-249 target; these results were unconfirmed at the time and announced later after more experiments, in 2006, at which point three or four atoms of oganesson had been observed. It was [officially recognised](https://iupac.org/discovery-and-assignment-of-elements-with-atomic-numbers-113-115-117-and-118/) by the IUPAC in 2015 and [named oganesson](https://iupac.org/iupac-is-naming-the-four-new-elements-nihonium-moscovium-tennessine-and-oganesson/) in 2016. \nHeavier, with 119 protons, is ununennium. Past experiments to synthesise ununennium have been unsuccessful, with no ununennium atoms being measured, though experiments have been performed at [RIKEN](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Riken) since 2018 and are planned at the Joint Institute for Nuclear Research in late 2020.\nUnunennium is even harder to synthesise than oganesson because it has a shorter half-life (estimated to be on the order of 10 microseconds, compared to the 700 microseconds for the [oganesson-294](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isotopes_of_oganesson#Oganesson-294) isotope first observed), and because the reactions that theoretically produce ununennium involve heavier elements themselves and have small cross sections for ununennium production.\nWhen will evidence of successful synthesis of the element ununennium be published?\nResolution will be the date of publication of the first paper that the IUPAC considers to meet the criteria for discovery of ununennium. If no announcement is made by the resolution date, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nFor example, a corresponding question for oganesson would have resolved at 9th October 2006 as per [this IUPAC technical report](http://publications.iupac.org/pac/pdf/2011/pdf/8307x1485.pdf).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:06.539Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:47.211Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 37, + "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-21T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50814,7 +50972,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar polar field strength has been determined to provide one of the best predictions of the amplitude of the next cycle and the maximum of the current cycle. The strength of the polar field is physically connected to the dynamo processes that generate sunspot development, and eventually the global field reversals that delineate the Sunspot Cycle.\n[Power transmission relies on magnetic or electro-magnetic fields](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/power-transmission#:~:text=INTRODUCTION,from%20one%20place%20to%20another.) on the Earth, which can be altered by geo-magnetic changes from variations in solar weather. Low activity in the polar fields increases the [intensity of solar weather](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming) and the [risk to satellite and power transmission operators](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission), who’s products’ efficacy is often strongly correlated with stronger fields. \nRobert Cameron, a solar physicist at Max Planck Institute in Germany for Solar System Research in Germany, states that:\n“[A weak field usually heralds a quiet cycle](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/05/scientists-tackle-burning-question-when-will-our-quiet-sun-turn-violent), because the polar fields represent the seeds that will punch through as sunspots and grow into the activity of the coming solar cycle. With over about four cycles of direct observation and more than a century of indirect data, the correlation is good and highly statistically significant.\" \nPeak polar field strength can therefore help predict the strength of the forthcoming cycle and give advance warning to stakeholders affected by solar activity. \nDuring periods where the polar fields reach a minimum, sunspot activity is generally near its maximum. Coronal holes open during this peak phase, some of which can last up to six months. Coronal holes release a strong flow of solar wind, which in turn can cause space weather effects -- geomagnetic storms -- when it interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. Geomagnetic storms strongly perturb the Earth’s magnetosphere, [producing auroral displays and triggering disruptions for communication and navigation technology](https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/news-articles/solar-minimum-is-coming). \nWhat will be the minimum polar field strength of the sun for Solar Cycle 25?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nQuestion resolution will be based on values reported by the Wilcox Solar Observatory through their [Solar Magnetic Field Observations program](http://wso.stanford.edu/#MeanField). Mean solar polar field readings are compiled each day from observations comprising several different times and locations, and are measured in microTesla. If data is not available or recorded through the WSO, information will either be drawn from an alternate authoritative source or resolved ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:08.848Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:48.348Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -50833,7 +50991,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 70.95 billion poultry were slaughtered in 2017. The term poultry is taken to mean domesticated avian species that can be raised for eggs, meat and/or feathers [(FAO, 2019)](http://www.fao.org/poultry-production-products/production/poultry-species/en/). \nHow many billions of poultry will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QA/visualize) of the number total poultry produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items Aggregated: Meat, Poultry + (Total), Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:10.663Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:49.546Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { @@ -50852,9 +51010,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Parallel question for: [Hungary](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5640/max-excess-death-score-for-hungary-2020-2021/), [Greece](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5639/max-excess-death-score-for-greece-2020-2021/).\nThe novel Coronavirus, and its resulting disease, COVID19, has caused numerous fatalities across the world. However, some countries appear to wave the storm better than others. The [Euromomo (European Mortality Monitoring Project)](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) platform monitors deaths in a number of European countries, and compares their observed to the expected (business as usual) counts, resulting in excess mortality estimates. Denmark has so far not seen any notable excess death from COVID19, but it might change with [the new mink coronavirus strain](https://www.thelocal.dk/20201104/denmark-to-cull-millions-of-minks-over-mutated-coronavirus).\nWhat will the maximum [z-score](https://www.euromomo.eu/how-it-works/what-is-a-z-score) be for Denmark for observed deaths in 2020-2021 according to Euromomo?\n---The value will be taken from the value on [Euromomo site once](https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/) the final numbers are in (i.e., not adjusted for delay in registration). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:14.630Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:51.617Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 107, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -50871,7 +51029,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Facebook is without a doubt [the biggest social network](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_virtual_communities_with_more_than_100_million_active_users) ever. Its active user count has grown by [more than 30 million per quarter since Q3 2008](https://www.statista.com/statistics/264810/number-of-monthly-active-facebook-users-worldwide/), and they've reached more than 2 billion people by now.\nWhile there is little doubt there are sock-puppets among the active users, in some parts of the world Facebook is the means to interact with each other. There are regions where Facebook has usurped the internet on which it runs to such a degree that if an organisation hasn't got a Facebook page, they might as well not have an internet presence at all.\nBut while Facebook keeps pushing for total market saturation, there are scant markets yet unexplored. Add to that the [decline in use among certain demographics](https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jun/01/facebook-teens-leaving-instagram-snapchat-study-user-numbers) and one has to ask:\nWhen will the world have reached peak Facebook?\nFor the purposes of this question we’ll look at the Monthly Active Users (MAU) Facebook [usually reports](https://investor.fb.com/financials/default.aspx) with their quarterly earnings to determine stagnation. This question resolves positive if over the course of a year (4 quarters) Facebook reports an increase of 8 million MAU or less. If FB stops reporting MAU, or changes the methodology with which they determine these, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:16.629Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:52.799Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -50890,7 +51048,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). \nThe Centre for Solar Energy and Hydrogen Research Baden-Württemberg (ZSW) publishes yearly data on global stock and registration of electric vehicles, i.e.battery-electric vehicles (BEV) and other electric vehicles (such as Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles, PHEV). According to [its 2019 report](https://www.zsw-bw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/PDFs/Pressemitteilungen/2019/pr02-2019-ZSW-WorldwideNumbersElectriccars.pdf):\nThe number of electric cars worldwide had risen to 5.6 million in early 2019, up 64 percent from previous year. This is the second year running to see such accelerated growth. China and the USA, the biggest markets, are propelling this steep growth. China remains the undisputed global leader with a total of 2.6 million ecars. It is followed by the USA with 1.1 million e-cars. Just short of 142,000 electric vehicles are now rolling on Germany’s roads.\nTesla accounts for the largest number of newly registered vehicles, nearly 234,000, followed by the Chinese brands BYD and BAIC. The most successful German manufacturer was BMW, taking sixth place with close to 87,000 electric cars, followed by VW in ninth place.\nHow many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2020?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of new EVs registered worldwide in the calendar year 2020, according to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html). It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to the figures below.\nData\nAccording to [ZSW's data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html), these are the numbers of EVs registered each year, starting in 2014:\n2014: 384,600 2015: 564,630, 2016: 779,250, 2017: 1,279,430, 2018: 2,242,720.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:18.688Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:54.041Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 173, "resolution_data": { @@ -50909,7 +51067,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Covid-19 pandemic has illustrated that there are times where many Americans would find it difficult to leave the US for [many other countries they would otherwise desire to travel to](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic). But is it possible that one day, normal Americans will find it very difficult to quickly and legally leave the US for any other country?\nWhile seemingly farfetched, this is the reality that residents of many Soviet-bloc countries had faced historically, and one that still afflicts residents of countries like North Korea today.\nDefine an emigration crisis as:\n---An American citizen in good standing with a valid passport cannot purchase a plane ticket and leave the country to any other country within 48 hours. \nWhen will American Metaculus users face an emigration crisis?\nTo operationalize this further, \n--- \nFor something to count as an emigration crisis, consider the hypothetical situation where >=10 Metaculus users will make good-faith attempts to leave the country as quickly as they can in the 48-hour period.\n--- \nIf >50% of them do not succeed in doing so within 48 hours, this will count as an emigration crisis for Metaculus users. \nWe ask you to predict the first such date where Metaculus users will face an emigration crisis by the above definition. To help detect this event, this question is partially auto-resolving, see the fine print below.\nOn the first day before 2030/12/31 when the 50th percentile of the result of this question, with >50 predictions, is in the past:\nWith 50% chance, the resolution date is set to resolve to that date. \nWith a 45% chance, this will go to a panel of 3 Metaculus moderators who have not predicted on this question, to decide whether to a) resolve the question to that date, b) to resolve the question to a different (earlier) date c) to reopen the question d) to leave the question closed and decide on the spirit of the resolution criteria later or e) to resolve the question ambiguous.\nWith 5% chance, Metaculus moderators will make a best-effort attempt to survey 10+ Metaculus users who have attempted to leave America on or around that date, and resolve this based on the hypothetical criteria above. If this is deemed impossible, the question resolves ambiguously.\nIf the 50th percentile is still after 2030/12/31 on 2051/01/01, this question resolves to >December 31st, 2030.\nThe question closes retroactively to 2 days before the question resolution. \nAll times in American Eastern Time. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:20.576Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:55.193Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -50939,7 +51097,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:22.400Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:56.432Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -50958,7 +51116,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "What will the real GDP per capita of the United States be (in 2020 dollars) in 2024 if Joe Biden is elected president in the 2020 USA presidential election?\nThis question resolves to the real annual GDP per capita of the United States for 2024, according to [FRED's Real gross domestic product per capita dataset](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA) (converted into 2019 USD, using [FRED's deflator series](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPDEF#0)).\nIf Joe Biden is not elected for any reason, question resolves ambiguously.\nNote that the question resolves positively, even if Joe Biden does not serve the full duration of his term (for example if he never assumes office).\nThis is part of a pair of questions, along with a similar question about [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4688/what-will-the-real-gdpcapita-of-the-usa-be-in-2024-if-donald-trump-is-reelected-president/), inspired by [this post](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qZXy8kGkNFyqCfHEJ/you-can-do-futarchy-yourself).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:24.237Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:57.608Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 102, "resolution_data": { @@ -50988,7 +51146,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:26.526Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:29:58.784Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 192, "resolution_data": { @@ -51018,7 +51176,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:30.492Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:00.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 178, "resolution_data": { @@ -51037,7 +51195,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 80% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight (so that it contains at least 40 grams of clean meat). The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 90% clean meat and 10% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:32.298Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:02.430Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { @@ -51067,9 +51225,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:34.410Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:03.577Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-22T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -51097,7 +51255,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:36.222Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:04.787Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 110, "resolution_data": { @@ -51116,7 +51274,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Climate change geoengineering, defined by the United Kingdom’s Royal Society as “the deliberate large-scale manipulation of the planetary environment to counteract anthropogenic climate change” [(Shepherd et al. 2009)](https://royalsociety.org/~/media/Royal_Society_Content/policy/publications/2009/8693.pdf). Geoengineering involves the removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere, or attempts at reflecting more energy away from the planet to counter warming [(Markusson et al., 2013)](http://geoengineering-governance-research.org/perch/resources/workingpaper5markusson-et-algeinccwikipediadataset.pdf). Geoengineering is often presented as a complement, and sometimes alternative, to climate mitigation and adaptation.\nThere are serious and complex governance issues which need to be resolved if geoengineering is ever to become an acceptable method for moderating climate change. It would be highly undesirable for irreversible global geoengineering to occur before appropriate governance mechanisms are in place. The Royal Society has published a set of geoengineering governance principles, known as The Oxford Principles, which aims to guide the collaborative development of geoengineering governance, from the earliest stages of research, to any eventual deployment. These principles are:\n---Principle 1: Geoengineering is to be regulated as a public good \n---Principle 2: The public should participate in geoengineering decision-making \n---Principle 3: Geoengineering research and results should be publicly disclosed \n---Principle 4: There should be independent assessments of the impacts \n---Principle 5: governance systems should be developed before geoengineering methods are deployed \nThe World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database currently lists a total of six international treaties that are related to the governance of geoengineering. \nHow many geoengineering international treaties will be listed on the World Legal Information Institute's database at the end of 2024?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of geoengineering-related documents listed on the [World Legal Information Institute's International Treaties Collection database](http://www.worldlii.org/int/special/treaties/) on December 31st, 2024. The relevant search will include the following search terms:\n\"Climate engineering\" OR \"geoengineering\" OR \"Solar radiation management\" OR \"Stratospheric Particle Injection\" OR \"Stratospheric aerosol injection\" OR \"Marine cloud brightening\" OR \"Ocean sulfur cycle enhancement\"\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:39.829Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:08.005Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -51135,7 +51293,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for May 2021, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for May 2021. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:41.636Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:09.254Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 177, "resolution_data": { @@ -51154,7 +51312,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is the third question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the third parameter in the Drake's Equation, . It is the number of planets, per star system, with an environment suitable for (though not necessarily possessing) life. We include suitable moons in this count.\nPredictors should use the sliders to make their best estimate of this parameter and its uncertainty.\nMost estimates consider how many planets fall within a star's habitable zone, probably with sufficient mass to retain an atmosphere or surface liquid of some type. (For example, our Moon is in our stars' habitable zone, though it is uninhabitable to life as far as we know, although there may have been a brief period of suitability.) However we might be more expansive:\n--- \nOne must also consider the fact that habitable zones move as a star changes over time.\n--- \nAlso there may be condition that allow a planet to be suitable to life outside of the traditional habitable zone such as sub-ice oceans of our gas giants moons.\n--- \nWe may also consider the habitable zones not just for water-based life but other biochemistries.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:43.463Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:10.414Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { @@ -51184,7 +51342,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:46.907Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:13.062Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -51214,7 +51372,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:51.255Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:14.300Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { @@ -51244,7 +51402,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:53.161Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:15.564Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 135, "resolution_data": { @@ -51263,7 +51421,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Jeff Bezos, founder of Amazon and [the world's richest human](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_World's_Billionaires#2020), has invested significant resources in his aerospace company [Blue Origin](https://www.blueorigin.com/). While Blue's long-term goal is to establish a large permanent presence of humans in space, its first major project was the [New Shepard](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-shepard/) reusable launch vehicle, intended to take humans and payloads into space for brief periods of time.\nIn 2015, New Shepard became the first booster rocket to reach space and land vertically (although it was succeeded by SpaceX's Falcon 9, an orbital rocket that landed vertically, and preceded by NASA's Space Shuttle, an orbital rocket that landed horizontally). However, five years later, New Shepard has made a total of twelve publicly-known flights and has still never flown humans.\n\nWhen will Blue Origin send a paying customer to space?\n\n---This question resolves as the date when Blue Origin or its successor organization (where succession through mergers, etc. is at the discretion of the admins) sends paying customer(s) to space, as determined by credible media reports. \n---A paying customer is a human that either pays Blue Origin for the flight, or is paid for by another organization such as NASA. It must be evident that money or equivalent consideration (stock, etc.) changed hands in an arm's-length transaction. In particular, they cannot be Blue Origin employees, test pilots, or investors. \n---The customer(s) in question must exceed an altitude of 100 km, return to Earth, and safely exit the launch vehicle. \n---The vehicle need not be New Shepard, but Blue Origin must be the primary manufacturer. \n---If it turns out that this has already occurred (as Blue Origin often announces an achievement well after the fact), the question resolves as the lower bound, not as ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:55.218Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:17.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 100, "resolution_data": { @@ -51293,7 +51451,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:57.568Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:18.190Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 230, "resolution_data": { @@ -51323,7 +51481,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:30:59.267Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:19.877Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -51353,7 +51511,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:01.106Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:21.121Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { @@ -51372,7 +51530,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Literacy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased roughly 5 percentage points every decade, from 55.7% in 1950 to 86.2% in 2015.\nHowever, for four decades, the population growth was so rapid that the number of illiterate adults kept increasing, rising from 700 million in 1950 to 878 million in 1990. \nSince then, the number has fallen markedly to 745 million in 2015, although it remains higher than in 1950 despite decades of universal education policies, literacy interventions and the spread of print material and information and communications technology. \nLiteracy data published by UNESCO display a surprisingly steady trend. Since 1950, the adult literacy rate at the world level has increased by 5 percentage points every decade on average, from 55.7 per cent in 1950 to 86.2 per cent in 2015.\nSee [this document from UNESCO for more information, and page 21 in particular to reference the section quoted above.](https://www.un.org/en/events/literacyday/assets/pdf/UNESCO_50_yrs_promoting_literacy.pdf)\nThis question asks: When will the global adult literacy rate as reported by UNESCO reach or exceed 95.0%?\nFor the purposes of this question, 'Adult literacy rate' refers to individuals aged 15 years or older, the definition used by UNESCO as of 2019. If UNESCO no longer uses this definition by the time a positive resolution would result, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:02.794Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:22.468Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { @@ -51402,7 +51560,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:06.206Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:24.620Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 478, "resolution_data": { @@ -51432,9 +51590,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:09.033Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:26.393Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 302, + "numforecasts": 303, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-07-12T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -51451,7 +51609,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Whole brain emulation (WBE) is the possible future one-to-one modelling of the human brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain. [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nIf whole brain emulation is possible, then one factor that might influence how it develops after being invented is how expensive it is per emulation. If it is cheap at the moment of discovery, there may be a rapid proliferation of ems quickly replacing human economic activity; if it is very expensive, then growth in the number of ems may be initially much slower. \n[Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf) calls this the \"overshoot\" scenario, and proposes that the cost per em will be low if the last constraint to be solved is something other than hardware (such as neuroscience knowledge or scanning technology), since whole brain emulation will be delayed to a time when hardware is cheaper.\nHow much computing power is required to run a whole brain emulation is not known (although rough estimates have been made by [Sandberg (2014)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/reports/2014-1.pdf), and [by fellow Metaculites](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2646/what-will-the-necessary-computational-power-to-replicate-human-mental-capability-turn-out-to-be/)). What is known is that the required power will almost certainly depend on the necessary level of resolution at which the copy of the brain needs to be modelled in order to emulate the human brain at a high level of fidelity.\nIf and when the first whole human brain is successfully emulated, how much will the necessary computational power to replicate human mental capability for an hour of subjective run-time cost in 2019 USD?\nMethodology\nIn line with the methodology used in [AI Impacts (2015)](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/#Cost_of_human-level_TEPS_performance), hardware costs will be amortised over a period of three years. That is, for a given computer we consider the fixed costs of purchasing and the cost of operating it over a year. Operating costs may include maintenance, rent of related facilities (power generation/distribution, cooling systems, etc.), utilities costs (i.e. electricity) and staffing. Then, hardware costs per hour is given by:\nThis figure is then adjusted to 2019 prices using a commonly used producer's price index of the country in which the supercomputer was purchased.\nResolution\nIf a whole human brain is successfully emulated, as per the criteria in [When will the first whole human brain be successfully emulated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/), the question will 365 days after the first successful emulation as the lowest hardware cost-per-hour (in 2019 prices) that is enabled by a supercomputer that is shown to run an emulation.\nThis cost-per-hour is not necessarily that of the the first system that runs an emulation. Instead it will be the lowest cost of the system that runs an emulation within 365 days of when the first emulation is run successfully. \nBy \"cost-per-hour\" we mean the cost to run an emulation for an hour of \"subjective time\", to adjust for the possibly compressed or expanded simulation time. That is, if the emulation processes inputs times as quickly (or slowly) as a typical human, cost per an elapsed real hour (i.e. the cost per wall-clock hour) will be divided by to convert this into costs for an hour of \"subjective time\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:10.983Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:27.643Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { @@ -51470,7 +51628,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Caloric restriction is,\na dietary regimen that reduces food intake without incurring malnutrition. \"Reduce\" can be defined relative to the subject's previous intake before intentionally restricting food or beverage consumption, or relative to an average person of similar body type. [...] In a 2017 report on rhesus monkeys, caloric restriction in the presence of adequate nutrition was effective in delaying the effects of aging.\nAssume that before 2150, the results from a high quality randomized control trial exploring the effects of caloric restriction on natural human lifespan are published. If such research is published, how many years will the researchers report caloric restriction adds on average?\nFor the purpose of this question, we exclude results from participants that\n--- \nDid not regularly follow the best practices recommended by the researchers for caloric restriction\n--- \nQuit caloric restriction at some point at least 5 years before their death. \n--- \nBegan caloric restriction after the age of 50.\nOf the participants of the study who do qualify, what will be the mean lifespan gain, according to the best estimates of the researchers?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:12.792Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:28.812Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -51489,7 +51647,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 2018, the Saturn V remains the tallest, heaviest, and most powerful (highest total impulse) rocket ever brought to operational status, and holds records for the heaviest payload launched and largest payload capacity to low Earth orbit (LEO) of 140,000 kg (310,000 lb), which included the third stage and unburned propellant needed to send the Apollo Command/Service Module and Lunar Module to the Moon.\nCurrently, the world's most capable rocket is the Falcon Heavy with an advertised LEO payload capacity of 63,800kg (140,660 lb).\nOn January 1 2050, what will be the highest payload delivered to LEO (in kilograms) of a launch vehicle in service? \nThis question applies only to the payload delivery of vehicles physically launched into space (regardless of their propulsion method) and not to the capacity of any hypothetical and currently unrealized systems such as space elevators, space towers, space guns, skyhooks or other unconventional systems that may be developed by 2050. The vehicle class must have delivered the payload in question and be arguably in service in that future flights of the same or similar vehicle are anticipated.\nResolves ambiguously if there are no qualifying launch vehicles on January 1 2050.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:14.624Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:30.027Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 69, "resolution_data": { @@ -51508,7 +51666,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "News of the human race's recent technological achievements has been spreading outward in the electromagnetic spectrum for decades, in the form of radio/TV transmissions including, importantly, [I Love Lucy reruns](https://io9.gizmodo.com/5758687/what-it-will-take-for-aliens-to-notice-humanity-aka-the-i-love-lucy-signal). There is now a sphere of approximately 100 light-years in radius where, in principle, someone could listen to our radio.\nWith much smaller radius and much sparser coverage of the surface of the sphere, the news also spreads via actual physical objects that we have launched outward from Earth. If we define this radius by the human-built spacecraft that is most distant from us, then the current winner is Voyager-1, which wrested that title from Pioneer 10 in 1998. Voyager-1 is currently about 13 billion miles away from the Sun, or 141 AU - somewhat less than a light-day. You can get the [up-to-date figures here](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/).\nSometimes the fastest way to get somewhere is to wait a few decades and then use the latest technology. So we ask:\nWhen will Voyager 1 lose the title of the spacecraft (built by the human race) that is most distant from the Sun?\nWe want no restriction on size here for something to count as a spacecraft - we intentionally include [nano-probes](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--beam-propulsion) of the kind proposed by Avi Loeb and Yuri Milner.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:16.445Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:31.660Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { @@ -51538,9 +51696,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:18.999Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:33.048Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 188, + "numforecasts": 190, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-26T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -51568,9 +51726,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:22.629Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:38.677Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 373, + "numforecasts": 374, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-13T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -51587,7 +51745,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "IPv4 was introduced in 1983 and now forms the basis for internet routing. It is a 32-bit addressing system so there are 2^32 or 4,294,967,296 addresses (some addresses are reserved so the usable number is slightly less). [The internet is running out of IPv4 addresses.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4_address_exhaustion) IPv6 was drafted in 1998 and finally standardized in 2017. IPv6's address space is extended to 2^128 or 3.4 x 10^38. The internet is currently transitioning over to IPv6.\n[IPv6 traffic now accounts for over 30% of Google's user traffic.](https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html) [Akamai](https://www.akamai.com/us/en/why-akamai/dns-trends-and-traffic.jsp) lists IPv6 traffic at 17.79%.\nWhen will global IPv4 traffic account for less than 1% of total internet traffic, as reported by Akamai?\nResolution will be based on Akamai's reporting of the number of IPv4 transactions as a share of total transactions (not bandwidth or other metrics). If Akamai ceases to exist or to publish this information, admins may choose another major content delivery network as the source at their discretion.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:25.109Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:40.513Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -51606,7 +51764,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Uber [recently announced](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54079727#:~:text=Uber%20has%20said%20that%20all,the%20challenge%20of%20climate%20change.) in September 2020 that it plans to have all taxis available through the app be electric by 2040 globally, and 2030 for Europe, America and Canada. \nThe option for an electric vehicle is currently available in 15 US and Canadian cities, and the company expects to open this option in another 65 cities globally by the end of 2020.\nUber is also working to arrange the transfer of vehicles for its driver by offering discounts through select companies (Renault and Nissan in Europe and GM in Canada and US) and promising [$800M in support](https://nypost.com/2020/09/08/uber-vows-to-have-all-electric-cars-by-2040-help-drivers-make-switch/) through 2025 for drivers to make the switch.\nAs Hawkins from [The Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2020/6/17/21294040/lyft-electric-vehicle-ev-100-percent-2030) writes:\n“Research suggests that the average ride-hailing trip creates about 50 percent more pollution than the average traditional car trip. Even worse, studies show that over half of all ride-hailing trips in major cities are made by people who would have otherwise used cleaner means of transit to get to their destination.” As one of the largest transportation companies and contributors to carbon emissions, taking these steps will help lower pollution and decrease the rate of global warming.\nWhen will Uber electrify 50% of its fleet?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through any reliable new source nationally such as the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, or similar sources. If there are no publications available through these sources, Uber’s own data and announcements will suffice.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:26.932Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:41.788Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -51625,7 +51783,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "North Korea is known to the broader international community as being a [Hermit Kingdom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hermit_kingdom). A 2014 UN inquiry into human rights in North Korea has [stated](https://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=14255&LangID=E), \"the gravity, scale and nature of [their human rights violations] reveal a state that does not have any parallel in the contemporary world.\" The ultimate source of these allegations derives from their highly authoritarian government, currently under under the leadership of Kim Jong-un. \nNorth Korea is said to become a democracy if the [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) ranks them as 6.00 or above for some year. However, at the moment, they are ranked at 1.08, the lowest of any nation in the world.\nJanuary 1st of the year for which North Korea was ranked 6.00 or above will be the year of resolution. This question resolves ambiguously if the Democracy Index radically overhauls their methodology for ranking nations such that a rating of 6.00 no longer carries the same meaning as it did at the time when this question opened. It resolves > in the case where the Democracy Index does not rate North Korea at 6.00 or above before 2200.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:32.395Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:45.537Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -51655,7 +51813,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:34.142Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:47.205Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -51674,7 +51832,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Small Arms Survey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_Arms_Survey) collects the number of civilian held small firearms per capita in a list of countries and territories. In the [2017 survey](http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/fileadmin/docs/T-Briefing-Papers/SAS-BP-Civilian-Firearms-Numbers.pdf) (published in 2018), the USA was #1, with ~1.2 guns per person.\nIn 2029, how many small firearms per capita will there be in the USA, according to the Small Arms Survey?\nResolution:\n---Resolves to the number published in the Small Arms Survey for the year 2029 (whenever the first such number is published) \n---If the Small Arms Survey is discontinued, or otherwise not yet published as of December 2030, or if it fundamentally changes its methodology (e.g. by changing the class of weapons it counts) a new source will be chosen by Metaculus admins. \n---If no suitable replacement is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:36.071Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:48.615Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 160, "resolution_data": { @@ -51704,7 +51862,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:39.953Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:49.823Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 55, "resolution_data": { @@ -51734,7 +51892,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:41.805Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:51.489Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 284, "resolution_data": { @@ -51764,9 +51922,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:43.839Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:52.793Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -51783,7 +51941,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nClosing their [$310M Series B round](https://www.weride.ai/en/series-B-update-en/) on January 13th, [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) is gearing up to commercialize their self-driving technology for widespread use. \nWeRide made its [pilot appearance](https://cn.weride.ai/robotaxi-service/) in Guangzhou, China in November 2020, launching their Robo-Taxis for customer use over 144.65 km of area in the city. These cars are fully autonomous, in that they can successfully drive paying customers using AI technology without the presence of any safety staff on board in case of an accident.\nAccording to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) through their AV Test Initiative, California is one of the largest [hotspots of activity](https://www.nhtsa.gov/automated-vehicles-safety/av-test-initiative-tracking-tool) for autonomous vehicle testing in the United States. There are currently [over 80 companies](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a32872492/dot-standardized-autonomous-vehicle-reports/#:~:text=It%20has%20been%20reported%20that,companies%20are%20testing%20autonomous%20vehicles.) testing autonomous vehicles within the US, although only 20 have submitted safety information to the NHTSA and registered with the AV Test Initiative. WeRide, who has access to [test their vehicles in Silicon Valley](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-compares-china-us-road-test-data-bdd4a32a84d8) with a driver on board, completed a highway test drive of over [50 km in 2019](https://werideai.medium.com/weride-moments-silicon-valley-highway-road-test-d5100783d4ac). However, [only five companies](https://www.theverge.com/2020/11/23/21591045/california-robotaxi-paid-rides-cpuc-permits) (Cruise, Waymo, Nuro, Zoox, and AutoX) are allowed to deploy autonomous vehicles on public roads without a safety driver in California. \nAs WeRide progresses in China and proves the capabilities of its AI technology, it could be one of the next companies to secure a permit from the CPUC (California Public Utilities Commission) to test their fully autonomous vehicles in California on public roads without any company safety personnel on board. \nPredictions should reflect the date that WeRide obtains a permit from the CPUC to test their driverless cars in California. There is a current list [here](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/). This will not include the deployment of vehicles for passenger use.\nWhen will WeRide begin testing their autonomous and fully driverless taxis in California?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will be sourced from any reliable news source including direct announcements from [WeRide.ai](http://WeRide.ai) on their [company website](https://cn.weride.ai/) or from the state of [California’s DMV](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/vehicle-industry-services/autonomous-vehicles/autonomous-vehicle-testing-permit-holders/) online website.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:47.740Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:55.686Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -51813,7 +51971,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:49.563Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:56.860Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 225, "resolution_data": { @@ -51832,7 +51990,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n---15,313 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:54.798Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:30:59.908Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 99, "resolution_data": { @@ -51851,7 +52009,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries have enacted stimulus packages that have incurred [significant debt](https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/04/29/coronavirus-downturn-likely-to-add-to-high-government-debt-in-some-countries/) at the same time that GDP is shrinking due to the pandemic. [Austria](https://www.reuters.com/article/health-oronavirus-austria-debt/austria-expects-debt-to-gdp-ratio-of-more-than-90-this-year-kurz-says-idUSV9N2BU00L) and the [UK](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/national-debt-exceeds-gdp-for-first-time-in-60-years-g6lgcbzp9), for example, both expect substantial increases in debt-to-GDP ratio as a result of these two factors.\n[The United States](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp) reached a debt-to-GDP ratio of 118.9% during WWII, which fell sharply afterwards, but has increased in recent decades, to 106.9% in 2019.\nWhat will the US debt-to-GDP ratio be at its maximum between now and the end of 2023?\nThe question resolves as the highest debt-to-GDP ratio between the opening of this question and the end of 2023, when all values through 2023 have been published by the [St. Louis Federal Reserve](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:56.683Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:01.240Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { @@ -51881,7 +52039,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:31:59.210Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:02.508Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 112, "resolution_data": { @@ -51900,7 +52058,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Transportation contributes heavily to greenhouse gas emissions from carbon dioxide. In 2017, road transportation contributed approximately [21%](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehicles_en) of the EU’s carbon emissions. \nPublic transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon and the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States. \nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.).\nHow many new electric bus registrations will Europe see in 2021?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2022. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). \nData: Numbers from 2015-2019: 2015: 0.11k, 2016: 0.83k, 2017: 0.64k, 2018: 0.91k, and 2019:1.99k\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:01.159Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:06.723Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -51913,25 +52071,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:03.127Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 183, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2020-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-03-07T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/", @@ -51949,9 +52088,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:05.413Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:08.157Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 190, + "numforecasts": 191, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-09-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -51962,13 +52101,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "When will human beings finally drill into the Earth’s mantle?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/675/when-we-human-beings-finally-drill-into-the-earths-mantle/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The Earth’s crust is pretty thin—at least when compared with the vastness of the mantle and the core. The crust’s average thickness is about 18 miles. In certain places in the ocean, the Mohorovicic discontinuity—the official boundary between crust and mantle, also known as the “Moho”—lurks just 3 miles below the surface.\nEver since a 1961 drilling expedition launched near Baja California, scientists and engineers have been actively seeking the Moho. Smithsonian Magazine summarizes the [mayhem](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/decades-long-quest-drill-earths-mantle-may-soon-hit-pay-dirt-180957908/) that’s characterized this mission:\nsome efforts failed due to technical problems; others have fallen prey to various sorts of bad luck—including, as discovered after the fact, picking inopportune spots to drill. Nevertheless, those efforts have shown that the technology and expertise to drill to the mantle exists.\nThe article also explains why this quest has riveted our attention:\nObtaining a pristine chunk of the mantle is important because it would help planetary scientists better ascertain the raw materials from which Earth accreted when our solar system was young… Its composition would also provide clues about how Earth initially formed and how it evolved into the multi-layered orb we inhabit today.\nA new program called the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) has already penetrated around a mile below the sea floor, making it the 3rd deepest hole humans have ever bored under the ocean’s floor, per the National Science Foundation (NSF). [This project](https://www.livescience.com/6959-hole-drilled-bottom-earth-crust-breakthrough-mantle-looms.html) is “poised to break through to the mantle in coming years.”\nAnother attempt, the so-called [‘SloMo’ Project](https://www.nature.com/news/quest-to-drill-into-earth-s-mantle-restarts-1.18921), aims to hit the Moho by drilling in the Indian Ocean at Atlantis Bank.\nWhen will we succeed? In what year will some human-led drilling effort finally pierce into the Earth’s mantle?\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:09.357Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 183, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-03-10T08:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2020-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-03-07T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6228/sota-on-imagenet-2026-12-14/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nImageNet [(Deng et al., 2009)](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) is a large scale dataset images built upon the backbone of the [WordNet](https://wordnet.princeton.edu/) structure. ImageNet is one of the largest visual recognition datasets which contains high-resolution images. It has tens of millions of annotated images organized by the semantic hierarchy of WordNet. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is EfficientNet-B8 [(Wei et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.11342v1.pdf), which achieves a top-1 accuracy of 85.8% on ImageNet.\nA good reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet be at 2026-12-14 in top-1 accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance, in top-1 accuracy, achieved on ImageNet up until 2020-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the ImageNet's validation set (ImageNet does not clearly demarcate its validation and training sets). No extra training data may be used besides the original ImageNet dataset.\nFor the purpose of this question, augmented versions of the ImageNet dataset, such as ImageNet-V2 [(Recht, 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10811), are considered different from [Deng et al., 2009's](http://www.image-net.org/papers/imagenet_cvpr09.pdf) dataset.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:07.281Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:11.250Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -51987,7 +52145,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100.\nFor the purpose of this question, the SOTA models in 2019 represent in the linked Google sheet are assumed to represent the ground-truth, and to maintain consistency, these won't be revised in case these are found to be erroneous or invalid. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:09.083Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:12.677Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { @@ -52000,36 +52158,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.2, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.8, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:10.969Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 261, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will Norway leave EEA before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6108/norway-eea-membership-2025/", @@ -52047,9 +52175,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:12.851Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:15.043Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 51, + "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-06T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -52060,13 +52188,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "With an international nuclear weapons ban in place, will a country that has nuclear weapons actually give them up by 2035?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/492/with-an-international-nuclear-weapons-ban-in-place-will-at-least-one-nuclear-state-actually-give-them-up-by-2035/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "In July 2017, 122 member states of the United Nations [adopted a ban](http://time.com/4848586/un-nuclear-weapons-ban-treaty/) on nuclear weapons. The participating states agreed to \"never under any circumstances to develop, test, produce, manufacture, otherwise acquire, possess or stockpile nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices.\" \nNotably, [none of the nations](http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/un-nuclear-ban-boycott/) that currently possess nuclear weapons participated in the negotiations of the ban or adopted the document.\nSeveral treaties prior to this aimed to curb the development of nuclear weapons, notably the 1968 [Non-Proliferation Treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Treaty_on_the_Non-Proliferation_of_Nuclear_Weapons) (NPT), which sought to limit nuclear development beyond five nuclear powers - the U.S., Russia, China, the U.K., and France.\nArguments against nuclear disarmament typically cite the principle of [deterrence](http://americanhistory.si.edu/subs/history/timeline/different/nuclear_deterrence.html), that the possession of nuclear weapons by some states precludes the development or use of weapons by other states, due to the threat of nuclear retaliation. Proponents of the ban argue that previous efforts have not prevented states such as North Korea from pursuing nuclear programs, and that [disarmament, rather than deterrence](http://thebulletin.org/controversial-ban-and-long-game-delegitimize-nuclear-weapons10934), is the best way to prevent nuclear war.\nIt's not unprecedented for states to completely disarm, however. South Africa [dismantled](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#Dismantling) its nuclear weapons beginning in 1989 and joined the NPT as a non-nuclear state. Three former Soviet republics, previously part of a nuclear-capable nation, also joined the NPT as non-nuclear states.\nWill a state that currently possesses nuclear weapons voluntarily dismantle their stockpile, abandon their nuclear program, and join the UN ban on nuclear weapons by 2035?\nThis question will resolve if one of the nations currently known to possess operational nuclear weapons (U.S., China, Russia, U.K., France, Israel, India, Pakistan, or North Korea) is certified by the International Atomic Energy Agency to have dismantled all nuclear devices and signs the 2017 UN ban on nuclear weapons on or before Jan 1, 2035.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.2, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.8, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:16.209Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 261, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-07-19T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-06-15T07:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2035-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Drake's Equation 1st Parameter R∗: What is the average rate of formation of suitable stars (stars/year) in our galaxy?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337/drakes-equation-1st-parameter-r/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is the first question of the [Fermi paradox series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox).\nIn a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler & Toby Ord of the Future of Humanity Institute, University of Oxford, the Drake's Equation was run as a Monte Carlo Simulation rather than a point estimate using the following distributions for the parameters of the Drake's Equation;\nParameter Distribution:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nI thought Metaculus would be able to produce distribution more reflective of our current knowledge, and allow the possibility of running Monte Carlo simulation more reflective of the possible outcomes of the Drake's Equation.\nSome of the paper's (and see also [this presentation](http://www.jodrellbank.manchester.ac.uk/media/eps/jodrell-bank-centre-for-astrophysics/news-and-events/2017/uksrn-slides/Anders-Sandberg---Dissolving-Fermi-Paradox-UKSRN.pdf)) choices for parameter distributions are surprising such as which is unlikely to resolve to be significantly less than 1, unless I'm mistaken.\nIt would also be fun to see if the distribution of resolutions to Drake's Equation derived using Metaculus-determined parameter distribution, would match the distribution produced by directly asking Metaculus how Drake's Equation will resolve. \nIn this case we will be addressing the first parameter in the Drake's Equation, .\nIt is the rate of formation of stars (in stars/year in the Milky Way galaxy) suitable for the development of intelligent life. Most estimates assume this refers to main sequence stars, but do consider the suitability of dead stars such as white dwarfs and black holes, and failed stars such as brown dwarfs and rogue planets when entering your answer.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:16.367Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:17.364Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { @@ -52085,7 +52243,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Genome editing is a type of genetic engineering in which DNA is inserted, deleted, modified or replaced in the genome of a living organism ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genome_editing)). The first gene-edited babies—[Lulu and Nana](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lulu_and_Nana_controversy)—were reportedly born in October 2018.\nThis question asks: How many gene-edited babies will have been born worldwide by the end of 2029?\nQuestion resolves according to birth counts given in the first authoritative report (so judged by the admins) to cover the entire 2029 calendar year, as well as all years preceding it.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:18.685Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:18.652Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { @@ -52115,7 +52273,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:20.495Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:19.928Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -52134,7 +52292,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding a self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nThe rides do not need to be provided by the same company. Use of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5304/widely-available-tesla-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving taxi we mean any car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:24.442Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:22.337Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { @@ -52164,7 +52322,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:26.298Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:23.497Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 380, "resolution_data": { @@ -52177,43 +52335,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.6, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:28.116Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 240, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "What will the US police-to-prison spending ratio be in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4907/what-will-the-us-police-to-prison-spending-ratio-be-in-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, for every dollar spent on prisons, [the US spends 1.5 dollars on police](https://blog.skepticallibertarian.com/2019/01/09/charts-police-vs-prisons-in-the-us-and-europe/). This is much more relatively on prisons than in the EU, which spends 5 dollars on police for every dollar on prisons, and is commensurate with the higher incarceration rate in the US ([655 prisoners per 100,000 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_incarceration_rate), compared to, for example, 105 in France). The ratio has not always been this low; from 1950-1975, when US incarceration rates were lower, this ratio was 3-to-1.\nReduction of the number of people in prison [is a goal](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/25/16340782/study-mass-incarceration) of criminal justice reformers including the [Open Philanthropy Project](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/focus/us-policy/criminal-justice-reform), and paradoxically black neighbourhoods are in some ways [underpoliced](https://www.vox.com/2015/4/14/8411733/black-community-policing-crime) due to a lack of attention given to the most serious crimes. One way a shifting of government priorities might be reflected is in a change to the ratio of spending on police and prisons. \nWhat will the total US government police-to-prison spending ratio be in FY 2030?\nResolution will be by dividing (Police services - Total percent GDP)/(Prisons - Total percent GDP) using the values given by [usgovernmentspending.com](https://www.usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1950_2030USp_21s2li011mcny_51t54t) when actual reported data or data interpolated from actual reported data from FY 2030 is available, or calculated from [usgovernmentspending.com](http://usgovernmentspending.com)'s sources for [federal](https://www.govinfo.gov/app/collection/budget/2021/BUDGET-2021-TAB) and [state and local](https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/gov-finances.html) spending if the website is no longer available, or from other official sources if those are no longer available.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:29.927Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:24.676Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -52226,13 +52354,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "Will North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5415/nk-launches-icbm-again-before-2022/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Over the years, North Korea has conducted [a number of missile tests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_North_Korean_missile_tests) as part of an arms development program. North Korea has also fired a number of short-range missiles into the Sea of Japan (East Sea of Korea), in what have been interpreted as political gestures.\nDespite a tentative cooling of tensions between North Korea and the US in 2018 and 2019, [Kim Jong-Un stated in late December 2019 that North Korea would no longer adhere to a moratorium on ICBM and nuclear testing, and that North Korea would soon demonstrate a 'new strategic weapon.'](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/dec/31/north-korean-leader-to-end-missile-test-ban-claims-state-media)\nIn October 2020, [North Korea unveiled a new ballistic missile at a military parade](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/10/asia/north-korea-military-parade-new-missiles-intl-hnk/index.html?utm_content=2020-10-10T14%3A21%3A18&utm_term=link&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twcnnbrk) to mark 75 years of the Workers' Party of Korea.\nThe massive weapon was carried by an 11-axle truck at the climax of the almost two-hour ceremony and military parade in the capital of Pyongyang.\nAnalysts said the new missile is not known to have been tested, but a bigger weapon would allow North Korea to put multiple warheads on it, increasing the threat it would pose to any targeted foe.\n\"Largest road-mobile liquid-fueled missile anywhere, to be clear,\" tweeted Ankit Panda, senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.\n\"Liquid fuel, Huuuuge, capable of carrying MIRV nuclear warheads,\" tweeted Melissa Hanham, deputy director of Open Nuclear Network at Stanford University.\nWill North Korea launch another intercontinental ballistic missile before 2022?\nThis question will resolve positively if a missile with a range of more than 5,500 km, capable of hosting a nuclear warhead, is launched by the North Korean government. Resolution is by credible media report, with assessment provided by US or UK government, or by a statement of confirmation that this has happened given by any permanent member of the United Nations Security Council. (In case of major controversy in such assessments, resolves as ambiguous.) Note that the missile must not necessarily be launched successfully for a positive resolution; any confirmed launch will suffice.\nThis question closes retroactively 24 hours before any such launch occurs, in the event that it is still open for predictions if and when such an event takes place.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.58, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.42000000000000004, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:25.908Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 246, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-10-14T03:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-10-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2022-01-01T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is less than $8 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket exceeds $8. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves above $8 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is greater than $20 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3153/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-greater-than-20-per-kg/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:31.724Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:27.116Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 128, "resolution_data": { @@ -52262,7 +52420,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:35.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:29.846Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 295, "resolution_data": { @@ -52292,7 +52450,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:37.051Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:31.727Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -52311,7 +52469,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nWhen will a major U.S. supermarket chain sell “no-kill eggs” in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a major US supermarket chain sells “no-kill eggs” eggs in at least 25 states. “No-kill eggs” are here defined as eggs produced by hens that hatched in a facility that successfully sexes the embryo at least 50% of the time, and subsequently destroys the embryos suspected to be male before hatching.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must sell “no-kill eggs” in one or more physical stores in at least 25 different states. Examples of supermarkets that operate in at least 25 states today are [listed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:38.996Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:35.544Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -52341,7 +52499,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:42.783Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:37.253Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { @@ -52360,7 +52518,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Polygenic scores can already predict more than 10% of variance in educational attainment (see e.g. [Lee et al., 2018](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-018-0147-3) ). \nResearch suggests that personality is moderately heritable, at about 40% (see e.g. [Johnson et al., 2008](https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-14474-007) ). \nHowever, the additive heritability might be rather low (see e.g. [Plomin et al., 1998](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9686459) ). \nThe limit of how much variance a polygenic score for a trait can predict is [given by its SNP heritability](https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC117414/technical_report_gwas.pdf). SNP heritability estimates for personality traits are often around 10% or even less, see e.g. table 4 [here](https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/gbb.12439 for an overview). Thus, it's entirely possible that we will never be able to predict more than 10% of variance in [Big Five agreeableness](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agreeableness) based on genetic information alone. \nHowever, better methods of imputation, including rare genetic variants, or other improvements might increase the SNP heritability estimates. It's also conceivable that we will develop more powerful methods than polygenic scores that are not limited by SNP heritability. \nPositive resolution requires an increase in adjusted of 10% (proportionally) with the addition of genetic information as explanatory variables. The question will resolve positively once a relevant peer-reviewed academic paper has been published and its results have been replicated at least once. In case the results are never replicated, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:45.550Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:38.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -52379,7 +52537,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Fewer than 600 humans have ever traveled to space. Fewer still have ever set foot on another astronomical object: only twelve men ever walked on the moon.\nIn colonial times, the birth of the first child of settlers in a newly acquired territory (for example, the birth of [Virginia Dare in a New World English overseas possession](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_Dare)) was considered an important milestone.\nIn that spirit, this question asks: When will the first human be born alive on an astronomical body other than Earth?\nThe child must be born alive, but need not survive for any particular length of time in order for a positive resolution. The birth must take place on some natural astronomical object (not inside a spacecraft, space station or man-made space-based habitat like an [O'Neill cylinder](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder)) such as a planet, dwarf planet, moon or asteroid.\nA 'human' shall be taken to mean an anatomically modern human that would be able (upon sexual maturity) to successfully breed, without technological assistance, with members of the species homo sapiens found on Earth in 2019. 'Mind uploads,' 'EMs' and other non-biological entities which may or may not be commonly considered 'human' at some point in the future are expressly excluded.\n'Birth' shall be taken to mean the explulsion of a child from the uterus of a living human female, either by natural means or by Caesarean section. [Extracorporeal pregnancies,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_uterus) including but not limited to arrangements like [this](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dt7twXzNEsQ) are specifically excluded.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:47.774Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:39.761Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 167, "resolution_data": { @@ -52398,7 +52556,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions on Metaculus:\n--- \n[When will Bitcoin lose its position as number one cryptocurrency?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)\n--- \n[What will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5446/total-market-cap-of-cryptocurrencies-2025/)\nCryptocurrencies' prices are dictated both by speculation and utility. Bitcoin's price movement seems to be driven by its use as an investment vehicle with increasingly many platforms offering consumers the opportunity to hold Bitcoin e.g. [BITW](https://www.bitwiseinvestments.com/funds/Bitwise-10), and [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/crypto/BTC). Much of the rest of the cryptocurrency ecosystem including Ethereum, Polkadot and Chainlink supports underlying infrastructure and decentralized applications. \nBitcoin's dominance thus reflects the extent to which the valuation of the crypto sector as a whole is driven by its investment potential as currencies as opposed to its platform potential as blockchains.\nWhat will Bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalization be in 2025?\nThis question resolves as Bitcoin's dominance percentage as reported on [https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) at 2025-01-01 00:00 UTC. If [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) ceases to report this metric, this question will use a comparable alternative which agreed with [coinmarketcap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) before its change.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:49.510Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:40.918Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { @@ -52428,7 +52586,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:51.308Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:43.071Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 69, "resolution_data": { @@ -52458,7 +52616,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:55.021Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:44.425Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 657, "resolution_data": { @@ -52477,7 +52635,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent of total GDP will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q3 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" in Q3 of 2030. This resolves according to seasonally adjusted \"Value Added\" data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn. Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:32:58.645Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:47.014Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -52507,7 +52665,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:00.366Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:48.210Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 153, "resolution_data": { @@ -52526,7 +52684,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2022-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,127 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:02.317Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:49.466Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -52545,7 +52703,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks). \nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2026 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2026 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:04.146Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:57.222Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -52575,7 +52733,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:06.288Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:31:59.333Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -52605,9 +52763,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:15.680Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:00.490Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 26, + "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -52624,7 +52782,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[In 2005, around 16% of people worldwide had an internet connection. By 2010 this had nearly doubled to 30% of the global population, and by 2017 had reached 48% of the world population.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage#Internet_users) \n[As of 2018, there were approximately 3.9 billion internet users worldwide.](https://www.statista.com/statistics/273018/number-of-internet-users-worldwide/)\nWhen will the number of internet users worldwide hit 5 billion for the first time?\nResolution should cite estimates from the International Telecommunications Union, credible media reports or credible academic or market research.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:17.551Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:02.173Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 121, "resolution_data": { @@ -52643,7 +52801,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The great recession of 2007-2009 was the longest lasting contraction in the US economy since 1929, [lasting 18 months, peak to trough](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html). \nThe good news is that the banking systems are probably more resilient than a decade ago, when the crisis struck, due to improved capital and liquidity regulations. Moreover, we now have an improved familiarity with the policy of quantitative easing (QE), the purchase of securities with newly created central-bank reserves aimed at lowering interest and stimulating expenditure. \nHowever, with low policy rates, there is little room for monetary policy to manoeuvre in a recession without considerable creativity. Moreover, the fiscal policy outlook might be worrisome as well. Congress may have less room than it did during the Great Recession, with the country’s debt burden as a share of the overall economic output rising from [63 percent to 105 percent](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp), and the US deficit to GDP now being [4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007](US deficit to GDP is 4.0%, compared to 1.1% in 2007).\nIf the US goes into a recession before 2032, how many months will the economic contraction (from peak to trough) last?\nA recession is here taken to be a two consecutive quarters of decline in real GDP. The duration of the contraction is taken to be the number of months from peak to trough in economic performance, as defined by the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles/sept2010.html) to be a combination of real Gross Domestic Product (real GDP) and real Gross Domestic Income (real GDI). This question will be closed retroactively at the end of the second quarter of decline in real GDP.\nData on durations of historical contractions in the US economy may be found at the [NBER](https://www.nber.org/cycles.html).\nEdit: (20/02/19): if the US enters multiple recessions before 2032, this question will refer to the duration of the first one.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:19.775Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:03.525Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 584, "resolution_data": { @@ -52662,7 +52820,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). As of March 2019, cage-free shell egg production accounted for only 18.4% (60.7 million hens) of the current table egg layer flock. By contrast, in the European Union, As of 2017, 49,6% of the total number of laying hens were not in cages [(EU, 2018)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\nWhat the percentage of egg-laying hens will be cage-free, in the U.S., in June 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percentage of the egg-laying flock that are in any cage-free category in June 2025, according to figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture. For the number of egg-laying hens that are in any cage-free category, we shall use the the estimated \"layer flock size\" of \"all cage-free layers\" for the month July ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/rj4304553?locale=en) in early August). For the total number of egg layers, we use the USDA estimate of the number layers producing table or market type eggs ([generally published here](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/fb494842n?locale=en)).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:21.602Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:05.033Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 142, "resolution_data": { @@ -52692,7 +52850,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:23.410Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:06.225Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { @@ -52711,7 +52869,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics [publishes](https://www.bls.gov/ces/) [data](https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section3b) on the average hours worked of the non-farm private sector in the U.S. \nIn this question we will be using the Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private ([AWHAETP](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP)). Some metric-specific characteristics:\nAverage weekly hours relate to the average hours per worker for which pay was received and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Factors such as unpaid absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. \nFor historical context on hours going back to 1950, [here](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AVHWPEUSA065NRUG) is a related metric (but that is calculated differently using annual hours instead).\nResolution will be the BLS reported AWHAETP figure for October 2025.\nThis question is complementary with another on [U.S. LFPR](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3144/what-will-be-the-labor-force-participation-rate-total-16-and-older-in-the-us-for-october-2025/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:25.193Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:07.377Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -52741,9 +52899,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:27.015Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:08.600Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 99, + "numforecasts": 100, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-19T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -52760,9 +52918,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexa_Internet#Alexa_Traffic_Rank) the Alexa Traffic Rank\nis designed to be an estimate of a website's popularity.\nAs of April 6th 2020, [Metaculus.com](http://Metaculus.com)'s [rank](https://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/metaculus.com) is 538045 in global engagement. What will it be on January 1st 2022?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:28.999Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:09.860Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 239, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-05-03T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -52779,7 +52937,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On 12 Apr 1961 the first [Soviet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_programme) flies into space. \nOn 20 Feb 1962 the first [American](https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/mercury/index.html) flies into space.\nOn 15 Oct 2003 the first [Chinese](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program) flies into space.\nIndia plans to send an astronaut [on their own rocket](https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/simply-put-how-to-send-an-indian-into-space-isro-maned-mission-5308964/) by 2022, [though there’s some doubt](https://www.dw.com/en/indias-astronaut-mission-will-push-space-program-to-the-limit/a-45108320) about that.\nThat’s it. Currently there are only two nations capable of sending people into orbit on their own: Russia and China, with the US about to regain their ability.\nPart of this can certainly be attributed to the Space Race pushing the envelope of what’s technologically doable, and one might justifiably argue that the accomplishments were made on an immature technology base. But it has been some time since then. With the US push of commercial space launches and the seeming growing international interest (partly spurred by the commercialisation) in space, one has to wonder:\nWhen will another nation than the four mentioned launch a person into orbit on their own vehicle?\nFor the purposes of this question a nation (or group of nations like EU or UAE) has to have their own [launch service provider (LSP)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_service_provider), or have acquired the complete capabilities of a provider to such a degree the forked/copied LSP would be able to launch people.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:36.947Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:14.265Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -52798,7 +52956,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:38.920Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:15.528Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 163, "resolution_data": { @@ -52811,32 +52969,13 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:40.735Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 130, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-07-20T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥80% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 32 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:42.588Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:16.737Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 131, "resolution_data": { @@ -52849,13 +52988,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When (if ever) will a Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4850/when-if-ever-will-a-manhattanapollo-project-toward-agi-be-launched/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "It is widely agreed amongst experts that Artificial General Intelligence — an AI that can flexibly and effectively perform a very wide range of cognitive tasks at least as well as humans — would represent a dramatic advance in power and capability for their developer. This has led to both speculation and concern that, recognizing this, countries or companies might launch \"Manhattan project\" style efforts to develop it. While shortening the timeline, these could easily lead to a race condition that compromises safety or alignment, or leads to adversarial dynamics during development. \nA [2020 paper](http://dmip.webs.upv.es/EPAI2020/papers/EPAI_2020_paper_11.pdf?fbclid=IwAR15Z0CMX4rBBUJEHhn6NdcMK2ZCF07pPpkcmfD36_oEI9WhV310bRkbaiQ) analyzes this issue in some detail, focusing on the \"lead up\" to a Manhattan/Apollo project: what understanding must be in place be \"on the runway\"?\nAs an assessment of that question, we ask here:\nWhen will the first (of any) Manhattan/Apollo project toward AGI be launched? \nWe'll define this fairly simply: the project in question will be counted if:\n1-- \nIt has a stated aim to develop broad-purpose artificial intelligence system(s); and\n2-- \nIt is constituted so as to generate a single \"flagship\" system or small number of related systems (rather than a diverse portfolio of more narrowly-purposed ones); and\n3-- \nThere is a research and engineering budget under the direct control of a single (executive or board) project lead with a budget exceeding the equivalent of $10B in 2020 USD.\n\n\nSome fine print:\n--- \nQuestion will remain open until one year after the chosen resolve date, or 2050-01-01, whichever is sooner. It is open at both ends, so as to include, for example, any potential secret joint Estonia-New Zealand AGI project.\n--- \nThe project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups.\n--- \nFunding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. \n--- \nNote that [the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B.](https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/RL34645.pdf)\n--- \nThere is no condition on total funding, but the $10B must be an in annual budget and allocated to, in principle, be spent in a year.\n--- \nResolution time will be, as best as discernible, the date at which the budget allocation to the project is made official by whatever entity is allocating the funding.\n--- \nIn the event that Metaculus should become highly influential and trusted, it is conceivable that this question itself could lead to adverse race dynamics. The author reserves the right to hide the community prediction, make this question private, delete it, etc., at his discretion.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:17.913Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 131, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-07-20T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will the James Webb Space Telescope be launched?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3033/when-will-the-james-webb-space-telescope-be-launched/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [James Webb Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope) (JWST) is an [bus-sized](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a3/JWST_people.jpg) telescope designed to replace the ageing [Hubble Space Telescope](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubble_Space_Telescope). It is very cool.\nIn 1997, it was expected to be launched in 2007 for a budget of 0.5 billion $. It has since been [rescheduled many times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Webb_Space_Telescope#Cost_and_schedule_issues). As of the first of March 2019, [NASA expects](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-completes-webb-telescope-review) to launch it on the 30th of March 2021, for a budget of 9.66 billion $.\nQuestion: When will the JWST be launched?\nThis resolves when the JWST is mounted on a rocket and the rocket engines are ignited with the intent of taking off. It also resolves if the JWST reaches space (defined as an altitude of 100 km, aka the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) through [any other mean](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-rocket_spacelaunch). The question resolves ambiguous if there are definitive reports that JWST is cancelled.\nFor the purposes of this question, any telescope that has ever officially been called \"JWST\", has a 6.5 meters honeycomb mirror, and is put either to L2 or L3, counts as the JWST. However the final telescope needs to be sent in a single piece accounting for >90% of its mass, otherwise this resolves ambiguous.\n[This closed binary question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/613/will-the-james-webb-telescope-launch-prior-to-2020/) asked if the JWST would be launched before 2020. It closed in July 2018 at 1%.\n[This still open question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1669/if-the-james-webb-space-telescope-is-launched-will-it-succeed-in-transmitting-cosmological-data/) asks if the JWST will be a success, conditional on launching.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:44.463Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:19.149Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 233, "resolution_data": { @@ -52885,7 +53043,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:48.082Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:22.138Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -52904,7 +53062,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Each year, the Effective Altruism Survey tracks information about how the EA community donates. For example, [the 2019 survey](https://www.rethinkpriorities.org/blog/2020/2/14/ea-survey-2019-series-donation-data) found that, in 2018, survey participants reported $4 million in donations to specific charities, broken down into five cause areas, with the following percentages of donations going to each:\n1--global poverty: 39% \n2--cause prioritization: 24% \n3--meta: 23% \n4--animal welfare: 8% \n5--long term future: 6% \nIn 2025, according to the EA Survey, what percentage of EA dollars will go to to global poverty?\nDonation data for 2025 should be taken from the 2026 EA Survey, or from whatever survey reports on 2025 donations. If no such survey is published by the end of 2027, then the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe set of donations to be considered is exactly the set of donations that are reported on the EA Survey.\nIf global poverty is not one of the reported cause areas or does not unambiguously correspond to a set of reported cause areas, then the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:51.156Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:23.361Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { @@ -52923,7 +53081,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Discussion of the human influence on global temperatures has a long history. For instance, Fourier first discussed why the Earth was warmer than expected from solely considering solar radiation reaching the planet in his [On the Temperatures of the Terrestrial Sphere and Interplanetary Space](https://geosci.uchicago.edu/~rtp1/papers/Fourier1827Trans.pdf) in 1824. Fourier ruled out geothermal effects, considered the temperature of outer space and made allusions to the heating of a greenhouse [(Fleming, 1999)](http://ocean.phys.msu.ru/courses/geo/lectures-addons/04/1999%20Fleming,%20Joseph%20Fourier,%20the%20greenhouse%20effect,%20and%20the%20quest%20for%20a%20universal%20theory%20of%20terrestrial%20temperatures.pdf). [Tyndall (1861)](http://web.gps.caltech.edu/~vijay/Papers/Spectroscopy/tyndall-1861.pdf) suggested a solution to this conundrum by experimentally demonstrating that gases such as carbon dioxide can effectively absorb infrared radiation, i.e. the ‘greenhouse effect’. These activities eventually culminated in the work of [Callendar (1938)](http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~ed/callendar_1938.pdf), who used 147 land-based weather stations to show that the Earth's land temperature had increased over the previous 50 years, and produced estimates that agree remarkably well with more recent analyses [(Hawkins and Jones, 2013)](https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2178). \nSurface air temperature change is a primary measure of global climate change. The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85°C (90% CI: [0.65 to 1.06]), over the period 1880 to 2012 [(IPCC, 2013)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf). The effects of increased global surface temperatures, and the associated changes in climate include:\n---Increases in the frequency and intensity of intense precipitation [(Min et al., 2011)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature09763), and increases in the proportion of the global land surface in extreme drought [(Burke et al., 2006)](https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM544.1), \n---Global sea level rise [(Vermeer and Rahmstorf)](https://www.pnas.org/content/106/51/21527.short), which in turn may result in the erosion of beaches and coastal wetlands, increased flooding, and intrusion of saltwater into rivers, bays, and aquifers [(Titus, 2008)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/08920758609362000), and global ocean warming and acidification [(Pörtner, 2008)](https://www.int-res.com/abstracts/meps/v373/p203-217/), \n---Adverse effects to human health, due to thermal stress, and the increased prevalence of infectious diseases [(McMichael et al., 2006)](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673606680793), and increased food security risk ([Zhao et al., 2017](https://www.pnas.org/content/114/35/9326.short); [FAO, 2008](http://www.fao.org/forestry/15538-079b31d45081fe9c3dbc6ff34de4807e4.pdf)), \n---Loss of terrestrial biodiversity at all system levels, including species-level reductions in range size and abundance, especially amongst endemic species [(Warren et al., 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate1887). \nAccording to [GISS Surface Temperature Analysis data](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/), over the 2008 to 2018 period, the mean surface air temperature was 0.76°C higher relative to the 1951 to 1980 baseline. 2016 was the hottest recorded year with the mean surface temperature being 1.02°C higher than that over the same baseline.\nWhat will the maximum increase in global annual mean surface air temperature be, relative to the 1951-1980 base period, in the 2020 to 2023 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as maximum change in global annual mean surface air, based on Land and Ocean Data, in degrees Celsius, in any year in the 2020 to 2023 period (inclusive of both 2020 and 2023). This data must be by GISS Surface Temperature Analysis, with the 1951-1980 base period. The adoption of this base period amounts to scaling reported temperature changes such that the mean temperature change over the 1951-1980 period is 0.\nData\n[GISTEMP v4 data may be accessed here](https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v4/). Data can also [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19P3wC8jxOzuG3mmGv3l6pXJeV8_lj6sQw5Ja6EtPX4E/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:53.046Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:24.511Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { @@ -52942,7 +53100,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The scientific definition of \"species\" is surprisingly complicated.\nAs this [November 2017 article](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/defining-species-fuzzy-art) from Science News explains:\nAt first glance, “species” is a basic vocabulary word schoolchildren can ace on a test by reciting something close to: a group of living things that create fertile offspring when mating with each other but not when mating with outsiders. Ask scientists who devote careers to designating those species, however, and there’s no typical answer. Scientists do not agree.\nFor the sake of this question, though, let's just go with [this definition from Berkeley](https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/article/evo_41): \"a group of individuals that actually or potentially interbreed in nature.\" \nEvolution marches on relentlessly. We homo sapiens – even armed with our technology and collective stored-and-shared wisdom--are not immune to this ceaseless force. At some point, our descendants will be so physically different from us – due to natural selection, human-engineered tinkering or both – that they would be properly classified as a different species. This [Scientific American article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-may-become-of-homo-sapiens/) explores some of the key ideas behind this question.\nAnd of course, we might well kill ourselves off, replace ourselves with AIs, etc.\nHow many years from now will the last member of homo sapiens be born? \nWe'll consider the people the future creatures will succeed or fail to interbreed with as early 21st C humans, and this must be possible without technical intervention. The people must exist IRL, i.e. not be simulated beings, uploads, etc. As usual we contemplate beings in the same universe, branch of the wavefunction, etc., as the server running the copy of Metaculus the question sits on.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:55.399Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:25.716Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 202, "resolution_data": { @@ -52972,9 +53130,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:33:59.544Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:28.765Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 205, + "numforecasts": 206, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-04T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -52991,7 +53149,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Battery cages](http://www.duhaime.org/LegalDictionary/B/BatteryCages.aspx), wire-mesh enclosures, are the predominant form of housing for laying hens worldwide [(Leenstra, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/291555344_Layer_breeding_programmes_in_changing_production_environments_a_historic_perspective). Cage reduce aggression and cannibalism among hens, but are barren, restrict movement, or the expression of natural behaviours, and increase rates of [osteoporosis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteoporosis) [(Meseret, 2016)](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/311321712_A_review_of_poultry_welfare_in_conventional_production_system). In the European Union, as of 2017, 197.6 million laying hens were not in cages, amounting to 49,6% of the total number of laying hens [(EU, 2019)](https://circabc.europa.eu/sd/d/18f7766e-e9a9-46a4-bbec-94d4c181183f/0%20Circa%20%20egg%20no%20links.pdf).\n[According to ChickenWatch's](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/) progress tracker, as of the 28th of November, 2019, 1753 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains.\nWhen will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their egg supply chains?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when will 5,000 companies worldwide have pledged to remove cages from their shell egg and chicken or chicken \"ingredients\" supply chains within any timeline. Reporting should come from [ChickenWatch's progress tracker](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/). If ChickenWatch no longer maintains its progress tracker, another source may be consulted, or the question should be resolved ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:01.517Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:30.189Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -53021,7 +53179,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:05.485Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:32.978Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { @@ -53040,7 +53198,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Netflix was founded August 29, 1997 has gone from a DVD sales and rental service to one of the largest video-on-demand services online. \nIn 2013, Netflix expanded into film and television production, starting to produce original content.\n[As of July 2017](http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/NFLX/4303980673x0x949716/CFB029CB-65E5-43D3-A87D-998FEFAA64C0/Q2_17_Shareholder_Letter.pdf), Netflix had 103.95 million subscribers worldwide, including 51.92 million in the United States. Netflix then had [more subscribers in the US than cable](http://fortune.com/2017/06/15/netflix-more-subscribers-than-cable/).\nThis question was created as a response to [the Twitter-prediction of venture capitalist Jason Calacanis](https://twitter.com/Jason/status/887403640239075328) who boldly predicted Netflix would have 250 million subscribers by 18 July, 2022.\nAs reported by an data release by Netflix or another organization that credibly has accurate numbers, how many subscribers will Netflix have on August 1, 2022? \nLinear interpolation between two commensurate values closest to August 1, 2022 and prior to Oct. 1 2022 will be used.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:09.287Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:35.809Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 373, "resolution_data": { @@ -53059,7 +53217,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The difference between tenure-track (TT) and non-tenure track (NTT) percentages reveals how many more higher education teachers are accepted into financially demanding roles at their institutions. This highlights the ability of American institutions to support tenured professors in the future and hints at the institutions' own predictions for financial stability. [AAUP](https://www.aaup.org/report/annual-report-economic-status-profession-2019-20) surveys on the academic labor force and the economic health of professors are reported through [The Annual Report of the Economic Status of the Profession](https://www.aaup.org/sites/default/files/2019-20_ARES.pdf). In the 2019-2020 school year, the percentage of TT teaching staff at private, religious, and public universities from both sexes, was 20.0% while NTT teaching staff represented 27% of the total academic workforce. The difference therefore as -7% between the two.\nThis question asks: What will the percentage difference between full time tenure-track and non-tenure track employment in US baccalaureate institutions be in the 2020-2021 school year?\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the report is not published before the resolve date. This question is a part of the Higher Education Series\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:13.729Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:36.973Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { @@ -53089,7 +53247,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:15.662Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:38.304Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { @@ -53108,7 +53266,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United States [emitted 5.4 billion tons](http://www.globalcarbonatlas.org/en/CO2-emissions) of carbon dioxide in 2018, 15% of the world's total, and over its history has emitted [25% of the world's total](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions) carbon dioxide emissions. Emissions this high are inconistent with the goal of keeping the global temperature rise low, especially to within climate goals like 1.5 and 2 °C which would require global emissions mitigation [beyond what is currently pledged](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-and-other-greenhouse-gas-emissions#future-emissions-scenarios).\nOver the coming years, new technologies like carbon sequestration, next-gen nuclear reactors, hydrogen-based fuels, and [electrification using renewables](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/21349200/climate-change-fossil-fuels-rewiring-america-electrify) could decrease CO₂ emissions.\nHow many billions of tons of CO₂ will the United States emit in 2035?\nResolution will be by the figures published by the [Global Carbon Project](https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/index.htm) in their 2031 Global Carbon Budget report, or the first report after that to include figures for 2030, or a similar credible source if GCP ceases to publish carbon emissions figures. If the data is given in terms of tons of carbon, multiply by 3.664 to get figures for carbon dioxide.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:17.432Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:39.497Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { @@ -53138,7 +53296,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:19.277Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:41.038Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "resolution_data": { @@ -53157,9 +53315,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 1,557,385 confirmed COVID-19 deaths worldwide. This global death number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed death data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:21.126Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:42.234Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 169, + "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -53187,7 +53345,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:22.912Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:43.541Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 200, "resolution_data": { @@ -53217,7 +53375,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:24.763Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:44.878Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 495, "resolution_data": { @@ -53247,7 +53405,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:26.917Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:48.063Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 470, "resolution_data": { @@ -53266,9 +53424,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Falcon 9 rocket](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) is a two-stage rocket designed and manufactured by SpaceX. The first stage (also known as the core stage) can return to Earth and land propulsively, to be reused on a later mission. In the last several years, SpaceX has incrementally developed its reusability capabilities. On [December 22nd, 2015](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9_flight_20), a Falcon 9 core stage successfully returned to Earth for the first time. On [March 30th, 2017](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SES-10), a Falcon 9 core was reused for the first time.\nSince that time, SpaceX has continued to make improvements and test the limits of reusability. The most \"veteran\" core at the moment is core [B1049](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores#wiki_b1049), which successfully launched and returned for the fifth time in June 2020. However, SpaceX's stated goal is to push this even further, using each core at least [10 times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_reusable_launch_system_development_program#Economics_of_rocket_reuse) with minimal refurbishment. In recent months, SpaceX has apparently adopted a strategy of using its internal Starlink satellite launches to push reusability boundaries without risking expensive customer satellites.\nWhen will an individual SpaceX Falcon 9 core stage launch and return to Earth for the tenth time?\n---This question is asking about some specific core which has launched and returned ten times, not about the total number of reuses across the Falcon 9 fleet. \n---The core may be refurbished between uses. We will consider a core to be the same if it has the same \"B10XX\" serial number as listed on the [unofficial SpaceX subreddit wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/spacex/wiki/cores). If this number becomes unavailable, or admins determine that the wiki has been substantially compromised, this question may instead resolve based on SpaceX's public statements. Typically during a webcast, a SpaceX host will state that \"this stage previously flew the ABC mission\", which also permits tracking of cores. Alternatively, if it appears that reliable information will not be available (e.g. if SpaceX no longer makes statements regarding the previous history of cores), the admins may choose to resolve ambiguous, at their discretion. \n---For resolution, the core must launch, reach an altitude above 1 km, and land (e.g. at a landing pad or a droneship, not in the ocean) relatively intact, ten times. There is no requirement that the core actually delivers ten payloads to orbit, or that it returns safely to port or SpaceX control. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:28.779Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:49.263Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 184, + "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-08T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -53285,7 +53443,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One important driver of progress in AI, as well as potential bottleneck for the development and diffusion of AI systems, is the number of professionals with the relevant skills. \nIn the United States, there are currently around 32,700 Computer and Information Research Scientists according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm).\nHow many Computer and Information Research Scientists will there be in the United states in January 1 2030?\nThis question resolves as the \"Number of jobs\" for the profession \"Computer and Information Research Scientists\" according to the [Bureau of Labour Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/ooh/computer-and-information-technology/computer-and-information-research-scientists.htm) on January 1 2030 at 11:59PM GMT.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:32.277Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:50.543Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -53304,7 +53462,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [One Billion Word dataset](https://static.googleusercontent.com/media/research.google.com/en//pubs/archive/41880.pdf), is a large dataset that consists of 829,250,940 tokens over a vocabulary of 793,471 words. Importantly, sentences in this model are shuffled and hence context is limited.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Transformer-XL [Dai et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.02860v3.pdf), which achieves at perplexity of 21.8.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-one-billion-word), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on One Billion Word be on 2022-01-14, in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on One Billion Words's test set up until 2022-01-14, 11:59 GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the One Billion Words's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:34.094Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:51.712Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 181, "resolution_data": { @@ -53334,7 +53492,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:36.143Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:52.918Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { @@ -53353,7 +53511,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2026-12-14?\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n--- \nWe take the average (arithmetic mean) of - ln (error) of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index\n--- \nThe index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of - ln (1 - error) for that benchmark exceeds 50 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:37.953Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:54.217Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -53366,36 +53524,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.02, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.98, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:39.815Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 147, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will humans go extinct by 2100?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/578/human-extinction-by-2100/", @@ -53413,9 +53541,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:41.908Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:55.496Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 706, + "numforecasts": 707, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2017-11-12T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -53426,13 +53554,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the United States institute a military draft by 2025?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3469/will-the-united-states-institute-a-military-draft-by-2025/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The United States has employed military conscription during five separate conflicts in American history, most recently in the Vietnam war, ending in 1973. If the United States enters another large war, it might begin conscripting soldiers once again.\nThis question resolves positively if any military personnel* are conscripted for the military in the United States before January 1st, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves negatively.\n* \"military personnel\" here includes the Coast Guard.\n\"conscription\" here does not include the Individual Ready Reserve or Stop-Loss activation.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.98, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:56.911Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 147, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-01-14T23:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2025-01-02T01:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will be the Democracy Index of the United States in 2040?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4333/what-will-be-the-democracy-index-of-the-united-states-in-2040/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Democracy Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index) is\nan index compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), a UK-based company. It intends to measure the state of democracy in 167 countries, of which 166 are sovereign states and 164 are UN member states.\nIt ranges from 0 - 10 for countries, where 0 theoretically represents an autocracy with no democratic freedoms, and 10 represents a perfect democracy. There are also four categories a nation may be placed under depending on its score: authoritarian regime (0-4), hybrid regime (4-6), flawed democracy (6-8), and full democracy (8-10).\nThe index for 2019 can be viewed [here](http://www.eiu.com/public/thankyou_download.aspx?activity=download&campaignid=democracyindex2019). As of the 2019 report, the United States had an overall score of 7.96, making it a flawed democracy.\nWhat will that number be in the 2040 report?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the report is discontinued. It also resolves ambiguous if the index is judged by Metaculus* to have changed too much. If the index merely changes scale, the eventual result will be rescaled to the current range (0-10).\n* \"Metaculus\" here means \"Metaculus administrators (who are the only ones who can resolve a question), aided by moderators and by helpful users in the comments section\".\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:43.792Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:58.219Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -53451,7 +53609,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Why care\nEnergy is a [$8.5 trillion](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7) industry. Nuclear fusion could give us cheap and abundant energy. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). It's also seems operationally safer as fusion reactor would be [incapable](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/) of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown.\n[On the other hand](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/), \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation.\" \nWhen will an organization first report a yearly profit?\nThis question will resolve to a report from a [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that indicates that a fusion company (private, public or governmental) turned a yearly profit.\nFor a company to be a fusion company, it must generate over 75% of its revenue from the sale of energy generated by nuclear fusion.\nRelated questions\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a fusion reactor reach ignition?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3727/when-will-a-fusion-reactor-reach-ignition/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:45.658Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:32:59.426Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { @@ -53470,9 +53628,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2017, Mark Post, the chief science officer at [Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/) [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e. until 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. His colleague at Mosa Meat, Peter Verstrate, expects it to take slightly longer, [he remarked](https://youtu.be/PVEu6TSKhD0?t=3954): \nWhen will [cultured meat] be in the supermarket around the corner? That'll be closer to 10 than to 5 years, I think. \nBringing clean meat to the shelves is [explicitly the goal of the company Mosa Meat](https://www.mosameat.com/faq) to \"within the next decade drop [clean meat] in price so that there will be products on supermarket shelves that are competitive with livestock meat products.\"\nMosa Meat is not the only company with aiming for a commercial launch of clean meat products. [As of mid-2019 there are over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies).\nWhen will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a retail store, operated by a supermarket, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product made of ≥20% clean meat, including beef, poultry, pork or fish, for human consumption in at least one physical retail store. The product must be for sale for less than $3 (in 2019 USD) per 100 grams. The product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 8 grams). An example of such a product is a burger containing a mixture of clean meat and plant-based meat.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nRelated questions:\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥20% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3087/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-20-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a supermarket sell a product made of ≥80% clean meat, for $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3088/when-will-a-supermarket-sell-a-product-made-of-80-clean-meat-for-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥80% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3086/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-80-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n[When will a restaurant first serve clean-meat products containing ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3081/when-will-a-restaurant-first-serve-clean-meat-products-containing-20-clean-meat-at-3-per-100-grams-or-cheaper/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:47.588Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:01.605Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 111, + "numforecasts": 112, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-12T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -53489,7 +53647,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May. However, with the winter season entering full gear, holiday retail sales are expected to increase [3.6 to 5.2%](https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-2020) over 2019 with total sales estimated between $755B and 766B, which should hopefully increase the ability for retailers to begin paying full rent once more. \nAs of mid-May 2020, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. By the second quarter, it fell only 2% to [15%](https://www.statista.com/statistics/194054/us-office-vacancy-rate-forecasts-from-2010/#:~:text=Office%20vacancy%20rates%20in%20the%20U.S.%202019%2D2020&text=In%20the%20United%20States%2C%20vacancy,the%20impact%20of%20the%20coronavirus.).\nIn May, the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a [National Association of Realtors survey from May 2020](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n[Recent data](https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2020-real-estate-forecast-summit-2020-consensus-forecast-12-10-2020.pdf) from November through December, released from the National Association of Realtors Survey, indicates that office vacancy rates will fall 3% heading into 2021, while retail vacancy rates will continue to increase to 11%. Industrial and multi-family vacancy rates are predicted to stay level at 5% and 6% respectively, while hotels experience a 2% drop.\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q2 of 2021, in the US?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:49.269Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:03.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -53508,7 +53666,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Iron fertilisation is the introduction of iron to iron-poor areas of the ocean surface to stimulate phytoplankton production to thereby draw carbon out of the atmosphere and into the ocean. Phytoplankton converts some of the CO2 dissolved in the ocean into biomass, which is then transported into deep sea by ocean circulation and gravity; effectively resulting in the long-term sequestering of carbon [(Yoon et al., 2018)](https://www.biogeosciences.net/15/5847/2018/bg-15-5847-2018.pdf).\nResearchers worldwide have conducted 13 major iron-fertilization experiments in the open ocean since 1990 [(Tollefson, 2017)](https://www.nature.com/news/iron-dumping-ocean-experiment-sparks-controversy-1.22031). All have sought to test whether stimulating phytoplankton growth can increase the amount of carbon dioxide that the organisms pull out of the atmosphere and deposit in the deep ocean when they die. Determining how much carbon is sequestered during such experiments has proved difficult, however, and scientists have raised concerns about potential adverse effects, such as [toxic algal blooms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmful_algal_bloom).\nWhat is the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort, by the end of 2026?\nThis question resolves as the largest amount of iron, in tonnes, that will be used to fertilise an ocean as part of a single geoengineering effort (with the intention to intervene in the Earth's climate system), by the end of 2026. \nA single geoengineering effort is a project in which the relevant actors act on behalf of a various organisations (e.g. national government or research organisation) that coordinate in precise terms on the employed geoengineering methods as well as the the extent to, and the duration for which these are to be deployed.\nIn case the fertiliser is a compound of iron, such as iron sulfate, the question resolves as the elemental weight of iron, which is to be converted using the relevant formula that specifies how many moles of iron the total weight of the fertiliser contains, which is then converted to the weight of elemental iron using the formula or [a converter](https://www.convertunits.com/from/moles+Iron/to/grams). In the case the fertiliser is a mixture of different iron-containing compounds, the weight of iron shall be determined by the same method for the individual compounds multiplied by the fraction of its weight to total weight.\nThis question resolves ambiguously no such relevant geoengineering effort occurs before the end of 2026.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:52.735Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:04.850Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { @@ -53538,7 +53696,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:54.504Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:06.108Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { @@ -53557,7 +53715,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. [For the current 2019 fiscal year](https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups), low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $995 or less in 2017; lower middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $996 and $3,895; upper middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita between $3,896 and $12,055; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,056 or more.\nThese thresholds are adjusted over time taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. \n[Haiti](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiti) is a country located on the island of Hispaniola, east of Cuba in the Greater Antilles archipelago of the Caribbean Sea. It occupies the western three-eighths of the island, which it shares with the Dominican Republic. Haiti is 27,750 square kilometres (10,714 sq mi) in size and has an estimated 10.8 million people, making it the most populous country in the Caribbean Community and the second-most populous country in the Caribbean as a whole.\nDespite having a viable tourist industry, Haiti is one of the world's poorest countries and the poorest in the Americas region, with poverty, corruption, poor infrastructure, lack of health care and lack of education cited as the main causes. Trade declined dramatically after the 2010 earthquake and subsequent outbreak of cholera. Haiti ranked 145 of 182 countries in the 2010 United Nations Human Development Index, with 57.3% of the population being deprived in at least three of the HDI's poverty measures. [You can view some historical, economic and cultural data about Haiti here.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ha.html)\nHaiti is the last World Bank low income country in the Americas, with a [GNI per capita of only $760 as of 2017.](https://data.worldbank.org/?locations=XM-HT) [According to the CIA World Factbook, Haiti ranks 213th in the world (of 228 countries and territories) in terms of GDP per capita.](https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/211rank.html#HA)\nThis question asks: When will Haiti become a World Bank upper middle-income country?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before Haiti is designated an upper middle-income country, or if Haiti ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated upper middle-income by the World Bank.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:56.338Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:09.602Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -53587,7 +53745,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:34:58.375Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:11.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 349, "resolution_data": { @@ -53606,7 +53764,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nIn the seven decades since the invention of the [point-contact transistor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point-contact_transistor) at Bell Labs, relentless progress in the development of semiconductor devices — Moore’s law — has been achieved despite [regular warnings](https://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore-s-law-1.19338) from industry observers about impending limits.\nThe TOP500 project collects and ranks system performance metrics of the most powerful non-distributed computer systems in the world. The project was started in 1993 and publishes an updated list of the supercomputers twice a year. The first of these updates always coincides with the [International Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISC_High_Performance) in June, and the second is presented at the [ACM/IEEE Supercomputing Conference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACM/IEEE_Supercomputing_Conference) in November.\nThe TOP500 ranks high-performance computing (HPC) by recording how fast a computer system solves a dense n by n system of linear equations in double precision (64 bits) arithmetic on distributed-memory computers ([TOP500, 2019](https://www.top500.org/project/linpack/)). This is an implementation of the High Performance Computing [Linpack Benchmark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LINPACK_benchmarks).\nWhat will the the sum of the level of performance (in exaFLOPS) of the all 500 supercomputers in the TOP500 be according to their November 2021 list?\nThis question resolves as the sum of performance (at Rmax) in exaFLOPS (1 exaFLOP = FLOPS) of all supercomputers listed on the November 2021 TOP500 list. \nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18Mha2f9RIQCAAg41vm_UkP524pt59vvD7TcjHZ1SHXw/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:35:00.185Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:14.089Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { @@ -53625,7 +53783,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:35:02.775Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:15.395Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 195, "resolution_data": { @@ -53644,7 +53802,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe coronavirus pandemic represents an unprecedented disruption to the commercial real estate market. Workplace policies are changing in remote-compatible industries – there is an ever-growing [list of companies](https://www.fastcompany.com/90508784/heres-an-ever-growing-list-of-companies-that-will-let-people-work-from-home-forever) shifting toward allowing employees to work from home, in some cases permanently. At the same time, nearly half of retailers are not paying rent – only 58.6% of retail rents [were paid](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/03/next-big-problem-businesses-cant-or-wont-pay-their-rent-its-setting-off-dangerous-chain-reaction/) in April and May.\nAs of mid-May, [CBRE](https://www.cbre-ea.com/publications/deconstructing-cre-post/deconstructing-cre/2020/05/14/office-forecast-q1-2020) expected “U.S. office vacancy to rise from its current 12% to almost 15% within a year.” However, office vacancy had already risen to 17% in the first quarter of 2020, according to an [REIS](https://www.reis.com/q1-2020-office-first-glance/) report. \nLast month the Urban Land Institute produced a [consensus forecast](https://americas.uli.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/06/Spring-2020-Economic-Forecast-Final.pdf) that provides some context:\nCommercial real estate transaction volume reached $588 billion in 2019, a post-Great Financial Crisis peak. Volume is expected to be over 50% lower in 2020 with a forecast of $275 billion. Forecasts for ‘21 and ’22 show growth of $400 billion and $500 billion, respectively. \nAccording to a recent [National Association of Realtors survey](https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-q4-commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook-04-14-2020.pdf) (p. 11), 22% of commercial members who responded believe that the commercial real estate market transactions will decrease by more than 20% in the next 12 months, while 15% believe that 1-year leasing volume will decrease by more than 20%. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the average vacancy rate for commercial real estate (i.e. multi-family, industrial, retail, and hotel) be in Q1 of 2021, in the US? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to the average commercial vacancy rate reported by the National Association of Realtors' [Quarterly Commercial Real Estate Trends & Outlook Report](https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends-and-outlook).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:35:09.507Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:18.464Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 184, "resolution_data": { @@ -53663,7 +53821,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Artificial Intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is causing job losses in many sectors. While the most obvious jobs being lost are related to easily automatizable tasks in factories [[1](http://(https://www.americanactionforum.org/insight/understanding-job-loss-predictions-from-artificial-intelligence/))], [many expect](https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2018/08/self-driving-cars-will-destroy-a-lot-of-jobs-theyll-also-create-a-lot/) large numbers of jobs to be lost in the transportation sector in the coming years due to self-driving cars. However, not all job losses are related to lower class workers, [but also to higher class such as lawyers](https://www.forbes.com/sites/cognitiveworld/2019/02/09/will-a-i-put-lawyers-out-of-business/). These trends affect all industrialized nations. The German unemployment rate has, however, been [decreasing steadily for a number of years](http://(https://www.statista.com/statistics/227005/unemployment-rate-in-germany/)).\nWhat will the unemployment rate be for German law degree holders in 2025?\n---Numbers will be taken from [the Arbeitsagentur (the Federal Employment Agency)](https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/en/welcome). For instance, [the 2017 numbers are available in the 2020 report](https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Broschuere-Akademiker.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=4), page 90. A total of 356000 people with a law degree in the workforce, and 4600 unemployed, thus giving a rate of 1.3%. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:35:12.927Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:21.213Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -53693,7 +53851,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:35:15.155Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:22.766Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -53723,7 +53881,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:35:16.994Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:24.016Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -53742,7 +53900,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n[Intelligence quotient (IQ)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_quotient) is a measure of relative intelligence. [Mensa International](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mensa_International) is a high-IQ society open to those scoring in the 98th percentile or higher in IQ. An IQ score of 131 (standard deviation 15) on the Mensa admission test is typically sufficient to meet the 98th percentile threshold.\nAn [artificial intelligence (AI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence) is a machine exhibiting intelligence. The 2010s saw a number of AI milestones, such as superhuman performance in the board game Go in 2016-2017. However, the highest reported IQ score of an AI known to the author of this question [is about 47](https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1709/1709.10242.pdf), achieved in 2016 (standard deviation not clear but likely 15).\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the date when an AI scores in the 98th percentile or higher in a Mensa admission test that it has not seen before. The AI could be trained on any publicly available IQ test questions that a human Mensa applicant could have practiced on, as well as general information about the world, but the Mensa admission test in question must be completely novel to the AI. If the new Mensa test were to include questions similar to those already publicly available, then such questions would not affect the novelty determination. \nThe admission test may be any test or project that yields a Mensa-recognized IQ percentile score. If no such 98th percentile score has been achieved by the end of 2099, or if Mensa ceases to produce or recognize novel admission tests that yield IQ percentiles before the question resolves, then the question will resolve as ambiguous. Changes in Mensa's percentile threshold for admission will not affect resolution.\nThe AI would not need to physically interact with a paper test or sonically interact with a human. However, the content of the test must be faithful to the human version.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:38.834Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:25.305Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -53761,7 +53919,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of January 31, 2018, total USA inventory of beef cows was estimated at 31.7 million head, with cow-calf operations in all 50 states [(Drouillard, 2018)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6039332/#b1-ajas-31-7-1007). The beef cow inventory fluctuates considerably from year to year, and can be influenced by market conditions and environmental factors, such as weather and rainfall (ibid.). In the United States, about 320 million hectares are used for livestock grazing, which is equivalent to 41% of the total land area of the continental USA [(USDA, 2017)](https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/major-land-uses.aspx).\nCommercial cattle slaughter during 2018 totaled 33.0 million head, up 3 percent from 2017. Steers comprised 51.2 percent of the total federally inspected cattle slaughter, heifers 28.2 percent, dairy cows 9.7 percent, other cows 9.3 percent, and bulls 1.7 percent [(USDA, 2019)](https://downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu/usda-esmis/files/r207tp32d/8336h934w/hq37vx004/lsslan19.pdf).\nHow many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in the year 2032 if the lowest retail price in 2026 of clean meat products containing >50% clean meat is greater than $20 per kg?\nThis question will resolve as the number of cattle slaughtered in the year 2032, [as reported by the US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/r207tp32d). Numbers are to be rounded off to one decimal place (e.g. 33.13 becomes 33.1). Commercial cattle include steers, heifers, dairy cows, bulls and other cows.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the lowest reported price in 2026, in 2019 USD per kg, of any clean meat product containing at least 50% clean meat in a U.S.-based retail supermarket is strictly less than $20. This question resolves ambiguous if [its sister question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3103/what-will-the-lowest-retail-price-in-usd-per-kg-of-any-product-containing-50-clean-meat-be-in-the-calendar-year-2026/) resolves below $20 (details on the resolution conditions, i.e. what counts as clean meat, how prices are identified, etc. can be found there). If no clean meat products are sold in retail stores in the U.S. in 2026, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions:\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is less than $8 per kg?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3113/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-less-than-8-per-kg/)\n- [How many commercial cattle, in millions, will be slaughtered in the U.S. in 2032 if the lowest retail price of clean meat in 2026 is between $8 and $20 per kg? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3115/how-many-commercial-cattle-in-millions-will-be-slaughtered-in-the-us-in-2032-if-the-lowest-retail-price-of-clean-meat-in-2026-is-between-8-and-20-per-kg/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:40.629Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:26.492Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 126, "resolution_data": { @@ -53780,9 +53938,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Wind power or wind energy is the use of air flow through wind turbines to provide the mechanical power to turn electric generators. Wind power provided [11.6% of the electricity demand in the European Union](https://windeurope.org/about-wind/statistics/european/wind-in-power-2017/) in 2017. Denmark is generally the country with the highest penetration of wind power, with [43% of its consumed electricity from wind in 2016](https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/2018/0111/932573-denmark-wind-farm/).\nAccording to the [International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)](https://www.irena.org/aboutirena), in 2018, the global weighted-average [levelized cost of energy (LCOE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source) of onshore wind projects commissioned in 2018 was at USD 0.056/kWh [(IRENA, 2019)](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2019/May/IRENA_Renewable-Power-Generations-Costs-in-2018.pdf). This was 13% lower than in 2017 and 35% lower than in 2010, when it was USD 0.085/kWh (ibid.).\nWhat will the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the global weighted-average LCOE of onshore wind be in 2022, in 2018 USD per kWh, per IRENA estimates. Prices are to be converted to 2018 USD using BLS [CPI for all urban consumers and all items](https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?cu). In case IRENA data is not available, other sources of estimates of the global weighted-average LCOE of solar PV may be consulted. These other sources should be deemed by an admin to be sufficiently similar in methodology. One criterion of similarity is that the estimate of the 2018 LCOE solar PV is not more than 25% different from $0.056/kWh in 2018 USD.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:42.454Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:27.765Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -53810,7 +53968,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:44.229Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:29.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 250, "resolution_data": { @@ -53829,7 +53987,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is the second question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over the following parameters:\n--- log-uniform from 1 to 100. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.1 to 1. \n--- log-normal rate, (giving mean 0.5 and median - 0.63). \n--- log-uniform from 0.001 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 0.01 to 1. \n--- log-uniform from 100 to 10,000,000,000. \nIn this case we will be addressing the second parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of the stars in the first parameter with planets. Predictors should use the sliders to best approximate their estimate and uncertainties in this parameter.\nAll evidence seems to indicate this will resolve very close to 1 (100%), though it is worth considering how this may be mistaken.\nFor example, if we consider a much broader set of suitable stars in the 1st parameter then it maybe the fraction is lower as stars less likely to possess planets are included.\nWe'll consider each planet to belong to a single star, so a binary star system with one planet, for example, corresponds to 50% of stars having planets.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:46.031Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:31.356Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 255, "resolution_data": { @@ -53859,7 +54017,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:49.576Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:32.625Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { @@ -53878,9 +54036,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2023-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:51.294Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:33.924Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 73, + "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -53908,7 +54066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:53.384Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:35.138Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -53927,7 +54085,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nWater has been called [the oil of space](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4), and for good reason. [Nature reports](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07107-4) that: \nPrivate firms are increasingly tempted by the possibility of mining oxygen and hydrogen — which power rockets — from lunar ice. If that does pan out, then the Moon could become a refueling station, radically reducing the expense of space travel.\nAs an example, a lunar return mission that refueled at the Moon would cost just one-fiftieth of the price of one that brings all its fuel with it from Earth.\nThough it appears that there may be far more lunar ice than previously anticipated, extracting and utilizing ice that took many years to accumulate is not, in the (potentially very) long-term, a sustainable approach for space mission or lunar settlement resupply. Fortunately, it may not be the only option.\nA recent [Nature paper](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41550-020-1198-9#Sec4) studying cold traps on the moon between 1 km - 1 cm in scale found that not only are cold traps roughly ~1 cm across the most numerous type, their presence has important implications: \nGiven the high loss rates due to micrometeorite impact gardening and ultraviolet photodestruction, the detection of water within the micro cold traps would imply recent accumulation. Therefore, the presence or absence of water in micro cold traps could serve as an indicator of volatile sources in the inner Solar System.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nTherefore, this question asks: When will humans be able to capture water from volatile sources in the inner Solar System?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a system must be created that can capture and make available for human use water from volatile sources in the Inner Solar System. Such a system may be a proof of concept, and not necessarily optimized, efficient, or cost-effective.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:55.146Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:36.412Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { @@ -53946,7 +54104,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Animal Charity Evaluators](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/) is a US-based non-profit charity evaluator founded in 2012, dedicated to finding and promoting the most effective ways to help animals. The coronavirus pandemic is expected to affect donations, and I'm curious to see if Metaculus can predict how much money ACE will influence in a time of uncertainty. \nOn the other hand, Effective Altruism, a broader movement dedicated to \"doing the most good\" with which ACE identifies, has in the past considered [counter-cyclical donation schedules](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/NasdMzQfx2yT7AE9r/increase-impact-by-waiting-for-a-recession-to-donate-or) (i.e., to donate more to charities in a recession), but it's unclear to what extent the idea has gained traction.\nHow much money will ACE estimate to have influenced in 2021?\nThis will be straightforwardly resolved as the number ACE claims on their own [financials page](https://animalcharityevaluators.org/transparency/financials/), which includes data for past years. For example, the donations influenced in 2019 can be found on the first graph, and amount to $8,904,521.\nIf the financials page has changed, but a calculation by ACE is available somewhere else on the internet, that will be used as a resolution. If it isn't available, we'll ask per email. If they don't answer, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThis question belongs to the [Animal Charity Evaluators Strategy](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ace) series. This is a series of questions intended to introduce Animal Charity Evaluators to the idea of using forecasting as a tool to inform their strategy. The questions were created by Misha Yagudin and Nuño Sempere, in consultation with ACE. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:37:57.124Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:37.788Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -53965,7 +54123,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the Paris climate conference (COP21) in December 2015, 195 countries adopted the first-ever universal, legally binding global climate deal. One of the key elements of the Paris agreement is global average temperature targeting: \nGovernments agreed to reduce emissions: with a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change.\nThe annual [UN Environment Emissions Gap Report](https://www.unenvironment.org/resources/emissions-gap-report-2018) presents an assessment of current national mitigation efforts and the ambitions countries have presented in their Nationally Determined Contributions, which form the foundation of the Paris Agreement. It also identifies the trajectory of annual greenhouse gas emissions consistent with achieving the mean global average temperature levels targeted by the Paris Agreement.\nAccording to [its 2018 scenario estimates](https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/26895/EGR2018_FullReport_EN.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y), the trajectory required to achieve the 2°C target with a 66% chance is one in which emissions of all GHGs should not exceed 40 (range 38–45) gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent (GtCO₂e) in the year 2030. It provides a snapshots for the year 2030 of the relevant abatement paths:\n---40 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 38–45) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 2.0°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---34 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 30–40) emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.8°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \n---24 GtCO₂e (90% CI: 22–30) emitted in 2030 emitted in 2030 is consistent with path that achieves below 1.5°C temperature rise in 2100 (66% chance) \nHow much GHG will be emitted globally in the calendar year 2030, in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the amount of global GHG emissions in gigatonnes of CO₂ equivalent emitted in the calendar year 2030, according to credible estimates, such as those reported by the [World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.GHGT.KT.CE). Other sources of data on global emissions may be used, provided it estimates are <25% removed from those displayed by the World Bank for the 2009 to 2012 period.\nData\nWorld Bank data can be [accessed here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j7vBfP8CD1Q_MIHqW_AxTgRlC2ThS0pxhthhuDDp4ZI/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n*Carbon dioxide equivalency (CO₂e) describes, for a given mixture and amount of greenhouse gases, the amount of CO2 that would have the same global warming ability, when measured over a specified time period. For our purposes, greenhouse gas emissions are the sum of the basket of greenhouse gases listed in Annex A to the Kyoto Protocol, expressed as CO2e assuming a 100-year global warming potential.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:00.822Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:40.403Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { @@ -53995,7 +54153,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:02.534Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:41.757Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -54025,7 +54183,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:04.630Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:43.166Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 642, "resolution_data": { @@ -54044,7 +54202,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "College enrollment of recent high school graduates, both online and in-person, shows how many students choose to pursue higher education as an option after graduation. This both reflects the desire to participate in higher education, as well as the economic and social means of American families to do so. The percentage of recent high school graduates enrolled in college represents enrollment in both four-year and two-year institutions, and shows the percentage of students ages 16-24 who enrolled in US colleges before October of that year who have completed either high school or the equivalent GED certification. In 2018, the number in thousands of high school graduates was 3,212, with the total percentage enrolled in college at 69.1%. In 2009, during the great recession, total enrollment bumped upwards to over 70%. \nThis questions asks: What will total enrollment for recent US high school graduates be in US colleges in 2021?\nThe total enrollment in all college programs at all college levels will be determined by [the NCES](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d18/tables/dt18_302.10.asp) using data from the [American College Testing Program](http://www.act.org/) obtained by the [Census Bureau](https://www.census.gov/). If the data is not available by the end of 2023, then the question will resolve ambiguously. This question is part of the [Higher Education Series](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:internal--higher-ed).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:06.566Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:44.940Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 115, "resolution_data": { @@ -54063,7 +54221,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Charity Entrepreneurship](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/about-us.html) is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 [incubation program](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/incubation-program.html), who ended up founding [six charities](https://www.charityentrepreneurship.com/blog/update-on-six-new-charities-incubated-by-charity-entrepreneurship), two of which received GiveWell [incubation grants](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants), one of which is estimated as having a [25% chance](https://www.givewell.org/research/incubation-grants/fortify-health/august-2019-grant) of becoming a GiveWell top charity.\nGiveWell is a research organisation which aims to find outstanding giving opportunities. It maintains a list of [top charities](https://www.givewell.org/charities/top-charities) which it considers to have the highest marginal impact per dollar donated.\nThis question asks: \nWhen will GiveWell's list of top charities first contain a charity which was founded by someone who received either training or a grant from Charity Entrepreneurship?\nResolution will be according to the GiveWell website, and/or credible media reporting. If GiveWell decides to no longer produce a list of \"top charities\", this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:08.404Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:46.196Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -54082,7 +54240,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nThe Stanford Question Answering Dataset (SQuAD) is a reading comprehension dataset, consisting of questions posed by crowdworkers on a set of Wikipedia articles, where the answer to every question is a segment of text, or span, from the corresponding reading passage, or the question might be unanswerable. SQuAD1 was introduced in 2016 by [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1606.05250).\nIn 2018, [Rajpurkar et al](https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.03822) introduced a SQuAD2.0, which combines the 100,000 questions in SQuAD1.1 with over 50,000 unanswerable questions written adversarially by crowdworkers to look similar to answerable ones. To do well on SQuAD2.0 systems must not only answer questions when possible (like in Squad1) but also determine when no answer is supported by the paragraph and abstain from answering.\nAs of writing this question, the best model is SA-Net on Albert (ensemble), which gets an exact match 90.724% of the time (meaning its predictions match the ground truth exactly, 90.724% of the time). Notably, this is better than human performance, which gets an exact rate at a rate of only 86.83%.\nWhat will the highest Exact Match rate of the best-performing model on SQuAD2.0 be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the best SQuAD2.0, in Exact Match, as displayed on [the relevant leaderboard](https://rajpurkar.github.io/SQuAD-explorer/) at 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14. Performance results reported by e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, or blog articles by reputable AI labs may also be consulted.\nPerformance results must be available before 11:59 PM GMT on 2021-06-14 to qualify. In case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:11.761Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:47.348Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 208, "resolution_data": { @@ -54101,7 +54259,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nFew-shot learning methods have been developed to explicitly optimize machine learning models that predict new classes using only a few labelled examples per class. Few-shot learners use prior knowledge, and can generalize to new tasks containing only a few samples with supervised information [(Wang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.05046.pdf).\nHow many e-prints on Few-Shot Learning will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Few-Shot Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Few-Shot Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"few shot\", \"1-shot\", \"one-shot\", \"five-shot\", \"10-shot\", \"ten-shot\", \"zero shot\", \"0 shot\", \"low-shot learning\", \"small sample learning\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science).\nThe query can be [executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22few+shot%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%221-shot%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22one-shot%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22five-shot%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%2210-shot%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22ten-shot%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22zero+shot%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%220+shot%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22low-shot+learning%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22small+sample+learning%22&terms-9-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). Running this query for previous years gives:\n---203 for the calendar year 2017 \n---350 for the calendar year 2018 \n---700 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:13.638Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:48.591Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 257, "resolution_data": { @@ -54131,7 +54289,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:15.508Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:49.915Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -54161,9 +54319,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:17.213Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:51.288Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 53, + "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-13T03:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54191,7 +54349,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:19.179Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:52.509Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 175, "resolution_data": { @@ -54210,7 +54368,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The number of federal judges each president can get confirmed in the US Senate is enormously consequential for US government and policy. In 2019, the US Senate confirmed 102 judges, the 2nd highest total in its history. In 2020, [the Senate confirmed 55 judges (see previous Metaculus question here)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3514/how-many-judges-will-the-us-senate-confirm-in-2020/). \nHowever, with a divided government looking likely in 2021, the Senate may confirm far fewer judges in 2021. Or they might confirm a whole lot. So:\nHow many federal judges will the US Senate confirm in 2021?\nResolution will be based on the number of judges confirmed in 2021 as listed on [this .gov page](https://www.uscourts.gov/judges-judgeships/judicial-vacancies/confirmation-listing) of US judges confirmed by Congress. If that source becomes unavailable, a source of comparable quality, including credible media reports if necessary, should be used at resolution time.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:21.018Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:54.818Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -54229,7 +54387,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The sun [produces watts](https://phys.org/news/2015-12-sun-energy.html). At the beginning of 2017, [humanity captured watts](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/iea-global-installed-pv-capacity-leaps-to-303-gw) using photovoltaic systems (less than 10⁻¹³% or one quadrillionth).\nHowever, the sun is one of the major sources of energy in the solar system, and it has been proposed that advanced civilizations could use their star as their [main source of energy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale). Specific structures proposed for this include [Dyson spheres](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere) and their subtypes (swarms, bubbles and shells).\nSome futurists assume that such a structure could in principle be built in [less than a century](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haCV1PEeXz4&t=7m40s), given self-replicating mining equipment that disassembles mercury or large asteroids.\nThis question asks: When will humanity be able to use more than watts produced by the sun?\nThis question will resolve positively to the year [CE](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Era) when humanity is able to use more than watts produced by the sun, the star in the center of the solar system.\nThe resolution date will be determined by the metaculus moderators.\nThis question will resolve ambiguously if the sun is destroyed before energy collection on this scale can occur, or if humanity goes extinct before it can complete such a project.\n\"Humanity\" is defined as the genetic and/or intellectual descendants of current biological humans, including (but not limited to) emulated humans (ems) and artificial intelligences.\nRelated Questions:\n---[How much solar energy will be consumed globally, in terawatt-hours, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3653/how-much-solar-energy-will-be-consumed-globally-in-terawatt-hours-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:22.980Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:56.018Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -54259,7 +54417,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:24.679Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:33:57.205Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -54289,9 +54447,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:28.459Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:00.384Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 293, + "numforecasts": 294, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-05-15T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54319,7 +54477,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:30.239Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:01.577Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 173, "resolution_data": { @@ -54349,7 +54507,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:33.708Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:02.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -54379,9 +54537,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:35.488Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:04.115Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 57, + "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54409,7 +54567,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:37.329Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:05.609Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 262, "resolution_data": { @@ -54428,9 +54586,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2022-2024 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2022, 2023, and 2024 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:39.259Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:07.114Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 123, + "numforecasts": 127, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54441,25 +54599,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:41.278Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 60, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the UK government announce that they will allow street votes to determine planning permissions by 31st December 2024?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6660/street-by-street-voting-on-uk-zoning-laws/", @@ -54477,7 +54616,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:43.213Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:08.325Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -54490,13 +54629,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "How many athletes will have signed the High Impact Athletes giving pledge by the end of 2021?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5999/number-of-hia-pledges-by-end-of-2021/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[High Impact Athletes](https://highimpactathletes.com/mission) is a new organisation set up by professional tennis player [Marcus Daniell](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marcus_Daniell), which aims to spread effective giving in professional sport. As of February 2021, their website lists 9 member athletes, as well as 29 athletes who are not member athletes as they have not made a pledge at 2% or higher.\nThis question asks:\nHow many athletes with HIA pledges will there be at the end of 2021?\nTo count as having taken the pledge, athletes must commit to donating at least 2% of their earnings to effective charities. Resolution will be according to data from HIA themselves, who have been involved in this question's development. A current list is available [here](https://highimpactathletes.com/athletes), but at the time of question writing it is updated manually, so it is not guaranteed to remain perfectly up to date. \nIf HIA ceases to exist for any reason, this question will resolve as <20. Athletes are not legally bound to their pledges, and so may renege on them. Athletes who have made a pledge but later decided to stop following it shall not count for the purposes of resolution. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to more than 2%, athletes will count if their pledge is at least the minimum commitment at the time they made it. If HIA decides to change their minimum recommendation to less than 2%, athletes pledging less than 2% shall not be counted for the purposes of this question. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:09.504Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 74, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-12-22T00:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-08-31T23:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2021-12-31T00:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "What will be the greatest velocity attained by a human-made spacecraft before 2050?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1648/what-will-be-the-greatest-velocity-attained-by-a-human-made-spacecraft-before-2050/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of December 13 2018, the fastest human-made spacecraft is the [Parker Solar Probe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe) which on 6 November 2018 [attained](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_vehicle_speed_records#Spacecraft) a maximum velocity of 343,112 km/h (0.000318 times the speed of light, or c) relative to the Sun.\nIt is expected that this will be substantially exceeded in the future when Parker Solar Probe reaches its ultimate perihelion. Its velocity relative to the Sun is expected to reach 690,000 km/h (0.000640 c).\nThis question asks: Before January 1 2050, what will be the greatest velocity ever achieved, in c, by any spacecraft made by humans?\nIn order to unambiguously express the velocity of a spacecraft, a frame of reference must be specified. For the purposes of this question, this reference frame will be taken to be fixed to the center of mass of the sun.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:45.068Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:10.680Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 117, "resolution_data": { @@ -54515,9 +54673,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The last 115 years of humankind’s relationship with air travel has been mindboggling. On December 17, 1903, Orville and Wilbur Wright lifted off in the [fields of Kitty Hawk](https://airandspace.si.edu/exhibitions/wright-brothers/online/fly/1903/). The era of human air travel was born.\nBut skeptics abounded. Yes, we could fly. But could we fly fly? \nFor instance, one famous early doubter told reporters in 1909 that “no airship will ever fly from New York to Paris.” The name of this skeptic? [Wilbur Wright himself!](http://blog.fastforwardlabs.com/2015/08/05/a-flying-machine-from-new-york-to-paris.html)\nJust 38 years later, American pilot and legendary daredevil, Chuck Yeager, broke the manned supersonic flight barrier in USAF aircraft #46-062, a.k.a. the [Glamorous Glennis](https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/bell-x-1). \nWired Magazine offers some of the [juicy engineering details](https://www.wired.com/story/its-the-70th-anniversary-of-the-first-supersonic-flight/) of Yeager's feat:\nThe Bell X-1 had a radical new “all flying tail\" that allowed Yeager to maintain control as the air compressed ahead of his plane, drastically increasing drag. (This is still standard on supersonic military jets today.) It also has thin wings and a sharply pointed nose to help it slice through the air. As he fired the final two chambers of the rocket powered plane, Yeager finally pushed through that sound barrier, to a speed of Mach 1.06, making him the fastest man on Earth.\nCommercial planes—most famously the Concorde—soon followed suit, allowing regular folk (with scads of disposable income) to experience the magic of faster-than-sound air travel for themselves.\nBut after the Concorde [got grounded](https://www.thesun.co.uk/tech/2203042/concorde-stop-flying-where-displayed/) in 2003, we haven’t seen any commercial supersonic transport (SST) attempts get off the ground.\nThat may be changing. Quickly.\n[Per Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/garystoller/2017/12/05/is-the-age-of-the-concorde-and-supersonic-flights-returning/#591635084cfb), the Denver-based Boom (in conjunction with Japan Airlines) plans to reignite SST travel:\n[it will] develop a supersonic aircraft that flies at Mach 2.2 and will cut current airline flight times in half. The Concorde flew at Mach 2.0, and today’s commercial jets fly at Mach 0.85. Boom says its jets will fly from New York to London in three hours and 15 minutes, enabling business people to leave early in the morning, make afternoon and evening meetings in England, and return home in time to tuck their kids into bed. \nBoom’s goal: [commercial SST flight by 2023](https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/supersonic-air-travel-just-took-another-big-step-toward-its-ncna828431). The [company's site](https://boomsupersonic.com/airliner) describes a 55-seat aircraft and tickets in the $2500 range.\nWhat do you think? When will the next commercial flight break the sound barrier? \nResolution is at the date/time at which a supersonic flight is flown on an aircraft designed for passenger use and operated by a company intending to use it for such purpose, over a distance of more than 1000 km. The contemplated timeline runs from late-2018 through 2030.\nETA 2020-11-26: Rockets or any type of hypersonic aircraft do not count as qualifying aircrafts for the purpose of this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:48.428Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:12.415Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 283, + "numforecasts": 284, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-06-11T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54534,7 +54692,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nAlphabet Inc. is he parent company of Google. As of 5 December, 2020, Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation was $1.235tr (in 2020 USD).\nGoogle has a few AI labs. Amongst these are [Google Brain](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Brain) and [DeepMind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DeepMind). Many of their products and services (such as their search engine and [their self-driving car subsidiary](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waymo)) are much infused by the latest innovations in machine learning.\nWhat will Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation be at market close on 2026-12-14 in trillions of 2020 USD?\nThis question resolves as Alphabet Inc.'s market capitalisation in trillions of USD at market close on 2026-12-14, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GOOG/). \nIn case the financial market data reports different market capitalisations for different share classes, this question resolves according the the figure for Alphabet Inc Class A (ticker $GOOGL).\nPrices are are to be adjusted from Q4 2026 prices to average 2019 prices using [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\nIn case Alphabet Inc. is no longer a publicly traded company on 2026-12-14, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:50.262Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:13.821Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 227, "resolution_data": { @@ -54564,7 +54722,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:52.049Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:15.032Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 168, "resolution_data": { @@ -54583,7 +54741,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Among the commercial ventures currently exploring human spaceflight is a small industry dedicated to using balloons instead of rockets. Two companies, US-based [World View enterprises](http://www.worldview.space) and Spain-based [Zero2Infinity](http://www.zero2infinity.space/bloon/) are developing balloon-based services that will take passengers to an altitude of around 36 km. That's short of the [100 km line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kármán_line) that defines actual spaceflight, but is high enough to show passengers the curvature of the earth and [a new perspective on the planet](http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/05/tech/balloons-fly-edge-of-space/) we all call home.\nBallooning, the companies point out, is already a part of high altitude history. In 1931 Auguste Piccard and Paul Kipfer [reached the stratosphere](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auguste_Piccard) in a balloon, and balloons were used to set altitude skydiving records, most recently [Alan Eustace's 41-km jump in 2014.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Eustace)\nBalloons do not require the explosive power of a rocket launch, but do require helium, a resource that is becoming more and more scarce. They also require regulatory approval from the US [Federal Aviation Administration](https://www.faa.gov) before beginning flights in the United States, and similar approval from other aviation officials in other countries. Approval from the FAA would take the form of a commercial space transportation license or experimental permit. As of February 2017, only [15 commercial launch licenses are active](https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data/licenses/) - none for ballooning ventures.\nWhen will a commercial ballooning venture receive approval to begin passenger flights to the stratosphere?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news report or release issued by a national aviation agency announces regulatory approval for any commercial ballooning venture, in the form of a commercial space transportation license or permit, to conduct passenger flights into the stratosphere [(above 15 km)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stratosphere).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:53.921Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:16.529Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 136, "resolution_data": { @@ -54602,7 +54760,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "During the last recession, China launched [an aggressive stimulus and credit expansion package](https://insight.kellogg.northwestern.edu/article/china-credit-expansion-unintended-consequences) which [kept the unemployment rate below 4.3%](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate) and reduced it over the following eighteen months. However, in the first two months of the nCov-19 pandemic, 5 million Chinese workers [have lost their jobs](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/china-economy-millions-lose-their-jobs-as-unemployment-spikes.html), many areas of the country remain in lockdown, and exports [have dropped by 17.2%](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/china-s-jan-feb-exports-fall-17-2-y-y-in-dollars-est-16-2).\nHow successfully (or unsuccessfully) and how quickly will China manage this crisis?\nThe question asks: what will China's official unemployment rate be for Q1 2021?\nThe question will resolve as China's Q1 2021 unemployment rate per [CEIC Data](https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/unemployment-rate), as soon as it becomes available.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:55.737Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:17.725Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 155, "resolution_data": { @@ -54621,7 +54779,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Traditionally, access to space has been extremely expensive. However, prices continue to fall with each passing decade as new technologies are developed and the sector becomes more commercialised.\n[SpaceX](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), for example, has demonstrated the potential of reusable rockets. Other advances in the future may include lighter materials, the use of inflatable modules, new fuel types, space planes, and more efficient engines. More speculatively, it may eventually be possible to deliver payloads to orbit with more exotic delivery methods such as space elevators or other non-rocket space launch systems.\nAs of 2020, [although the cost to launch a payload to LEO has dropped considerably in recent decades, spaceflight remains a fairly costly endeavour](https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm). For example, a flight to LEO on a Falcon 9 rocket with a reused first stage costs [about $50 million](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) for a 15,600kg maximum reusable payload; meaning the price per kilo to LEO is about $3,205. \nHowever, there is optimism that a significant reduction in cost to LEO could be achieved in the near future. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk claims that the company's Starship and Super Heavy launch system, currently in development, could eventually achieve a cost per kilogram to LEO of as little as $10: \n[Starship + Super Heavy propellant mass is 4800 tons (78% O2 & 22% CH4). I think we can get propellant cost down to ~$100/ton in volume, so ~$500k/flight. With high flight rate, probably below $1.5M fully burdened cost for 150 tons to orbit or ~$10/kg.](https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1258580078218412033)\nThis question asks: Before 1 January 2025, what will be the lowest cost, in inflation-adjusted dollars, to deliver a kilogram of mass to low Earth orbit (or beyond; suborbital flights are excluded) using any system that has actually completed at least one successful delivery at the stated price?\nInflation adjustment should be completed using a consumer price index method, with January 2020 taken as the reference month.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:57.560Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:18.965Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { @@ -54651,7 +54809,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:38:59.380Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:20.313Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 123, "resolution_data": { @@ -54670,7 +54828,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the launch of our [first satellite](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sputnik_1) into orbit in 1957, human activity in outer space has been gradually increasing as the decades pass. As of writing, humans have visited the Moon, placed thousands of satellites around Earth and other celestial objects, and low Earth orbit has been inhabited continuously for just over [20 years](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/11/02/science/international-space-station-20-years) now.\nElon Musk wants to colonize Mars and Jeff Bezos has talked about [moving industry to space](https://www.fastcompany.com/90347364/jeff-bezos-wants-to-save-earth-by-moving-industry-to-space), but as of yet, there is still essentially no economic activity that happens (almost) exclusively in outer space. How soon is this going to change?\nWhen will 1% of humanity's Gross World Product (GWP) be produced off-Earth?\nThis question will resolve positively when there is a credible report of the total GWP of all economic activity away from Earth equaling at least 1/99th of the total GWP produced on Earth, as judged by Metaculus administrators.\nEconomic activity will be counted as being \"off-Earth\" so long as it is exclusively performed at least 100 km above the Earth's surface. A rocket launching a probe from the Earth's surface would be part of Earth's GWP, while that same probe performing asteroid mining would count as off-Earth GWP.\nAs it's fairly likely the exact date when the 1% milestone is achieved might not be knowable with certainty due to ambiguities, this question will retroactively resolve to January 1st of the year when it was deemed to have occurred.\nIf this question does not resolve positive before the ending date of 2300 AD, it will resolve to the upper bound.\nIf the GWP falls into disuse and Metaculus administrators find no obvious alternatives, this resolves ambiguous.\nFor the purposes of this question...\n--- \nThe term \"Gross World Product\" will refer to humanity's total economic activity across all inhabited space, including any worlds or artificial habitats beyond Earth.\n--- \nThe word \"humanity\" will also include genetically modified or cybernetic Earth-originating organisms, emulated humans (ems), and artificial intelligences (AIs). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:01.337Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:21.673Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -54700,9 +54858,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:05.849Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:23.372Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 112, + "numforecasts": 113, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-03-19T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54730,7 +54888,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:07.573Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:24.641Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -54749,7 +54907,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Last year, OpenAI announced their big project for that year: [GPT-2](https://openai.com/blog/better-language-models/), a transformer based language model representing a significant advance in language modeling capabilities.\nOn February 17th an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/17/844721/ai-openai-moonshot-elon-musk-sam-altman-greg-brockman-messy-secretive-reality/) from the MIT Technology Review reported,\nOne of the biggest secrets is the project OpenAI is working on next. Sources described it to me as the culmination of its previous four years of research: an AI system trained on images, text, and other data using massive computational resources. A small team has been assigned to the initial effort, with an expectation that other teams, along with their work, will eventually fold in. On the day it was announced at an all-company meeting, interns weren’t allowed to attend. People familiar with the plan offer an explanation: the leadership thinks this is the most promising way to reach AGI.\nThis question resolves on the date when OpenAI publishes a blog post or paper or a document of any kind, describing a large machine learning model that was trained on both images and text, and other data using massive computational resources (>10^4 Petaflop/s-days as determined from estimates, judged by the Metaculus mods). If they do not unveil their secret project before April 2022, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:09.449Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:25.826Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 345, "resolution_data": { @@ -54768,7 +54926,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[New York Times](https://archive.vn/QxmYS#selection-369.0-369.13) (June 17, 2020) has an article on how the Chinese state is collecting a massive genomic database of 700 million men (full population coverage). This is used in order to fight crime, so far resulting in captures of otherwise elusive criminals (similar to in the USA, e.g. [Golden State Killer](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_State_Killer)). The database will also present the Chinese government with enormous statistical power for genomics research that could be used to train very accurate genomic prediction models for medical and eugenic purposes (artificial selection). British intelligence researcher [Richard Lynn speculated already back in 2001](https://www.amazon.com/Eugenics-Reassessment-Evolution-Behavior-Intelligence/dp/0275958221) that China would pursue such eugenic technology in the first half of the 21st century. In 2018, Chinese researcher He Jiankui [caused a shockwave when it was revealed](https://archive.vn/fhVDM#selection-359.0-359.10) he had genetically altered embryos and which were later born as healthy babies. Many Western governments or government bodies are also pursuing large-scale genome biobank projects (e.g. [US Million Veteran Program](https://www.research.va.gov/mvp/)), though not so far at the scale of the Chinese program. Private consumer companies are [also building massive databanks](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1).\nThe question is: When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens? \nThis question resolves positively when a reputable scientific source reports that Chinese has reached 1 billion genotyped or sequenced genomes from their own citizens (a reputable source is e.g. Nature News, MIT Tech Review, or similar, as well as any reviewed paper in the unlikely event that it is reported in a journal before a science news source).\nFurther details: \n--- \nThe date for resolving is the one where this goal was reached, not the reporting date. For the purpose of this question, whole genome sequencing and whole-genome microarray technology count\n--- \nBy citizens, we mean citizens of Mainland China, Macau and Hong Kong\n--- \nGenomes from monozygotic (identical) twins count as multiple different genomes for the purpose of this question\nGenotyping only counts if it is both broad (samples widely in the genome), and deep (samples many loci, say >500k). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:11.263Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:27.037Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -54798,9 +54956,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:13.335Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:28.325Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 225, + "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-14T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -54817,7 +54975,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the start of 2019, in a [blogpost](https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/01/01/what-happened-to-90s-environmentalism/) entitled \"Whatever happened to 90s environmentalism?\", Scott Alexander wrote:\nImagine that twenty years from now, nobody cares or talks about global warming. It hasn’t been debunked. It’s still happening. People just stopped considering it interesting. Every so often some webzine or VR-holozine or whatever will publish a “Whatever Happened To Global Warming” story, and you’ll hear that global temperatures are up X degrees centigrade since 2000 and that explains Y percent of recent devastating hurricanes. Then everyone will go back to worrying about Robo-Trump or Mecha-Putin or whatever.\nIf this sounds absurd, I think it’s no weirder than what’s happened to 90s environmentalism and the issues it cared about.\nThis question is about the extent to which interest in climate change, as measured by Google Trends, will have changed by 2025. It asks:\nLet the average monthly value of this [Google Trends index of climate concern](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zAtvopkcsM1rtdGx3RhlXq521wpFc5EvnJxyqar_kPc/edit?usp=sharing) for the first six months of 2025 be F, and the monthly value for June 2020 be P. \nWhat will be the value of F/P?\nThe index is the sum of the search interest in the following 10 terms according to Google Trends, over the time-window: 2004-2025-07-01, normalised for climate change:\n1--climate change \n2--global warming \n3--greenhouse gas \n4--greenhouse effect \n5--fossil fuels \n6--carbon dioxide \n7--sea level rise \n8--emissions \n9--renewable energy \n10-climate science \nThe search terms used to generate the data are:\n---[One](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,global%20warming,greenhouse%20gas,greenhouse%20effect,fossil%20fuels) \n---[Two](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,carbon%20dioxide,sea%20level%20rise,emissions,renewable%20energy) \n---[Three](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=all&q=climate%20change,climate%20science) \nThe normalisation process is explained on the second tab of the google sheets document.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:15.179Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:29.540Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 100, "resolution_data": { @@ -54847,7 +55005,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:20.040Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:32.361Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -54877,7 +55035,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:22.125Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:33.667Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -54896,7 +55054,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin) are an order of mammals found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. There are eight currently extant species of pangolin. One the [IUCN red list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IUCN_Red_List), three of these ([Phillipine pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_pangolin), [Chinese pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_pangolin) and [Sunda pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunda_pangolin)) are listed as critically endangered, three ([Tree pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tree_pangolin), [Indian pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_pangolin) and [Giant pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giant_pangolin)) are listed as endangered and two ([Long-tailed pangolins](Long-tailed pangolin) and [Ground pangolins](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ground_pangolin)) are listed as vulnerable. The endangerment of pangolins is caused by a combination of [poaching](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pangolin_trade) and deforestation.\nHow many species of pangolin will survive to 2050?\nThis will resolve at the number of currently known species of pangolin that are not classified as \"extinct\" or \"critically endangered (possibly extinct)\" by the latest version of the [IUCN Red List](https://www.iucnredlist.org/) as of the end of 2050. If new species are discovered, they will not count towards the total number.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:23.831Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:34.816Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -54915,7 +55073,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gender based pay gap has long existed as an issue across the US. Across all professions, levels of seniority, and time spent working, women made only [$0.81 to even man’s dollar](https://www.payscale.com/data/gender-pay-gap). Up 2% from 2019, and 7% from 2015, this gap is continuing to slowly close. It is estimated that without gender based pay discrimination and inequality, the natural gap would exist at approximately 98%. \nConsidering only individuals who work full time, ages 15 and greater, the gap is actually smaller, with rates in 2019 at [almost 83%](https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/visualizations/2020/demo/p60-270/figure5.pdf). Across the country, women are consistently employed in part time jobs at rates much higher than men, a significant factor in the continuation of these pay differneces. [Working part time fuels the pay gap](https://www.epi.org/publication/part-time-pay-penalty/) and general gender inequality by decreasing hourly earnings below that of full-time workers, and also through the denial of employment benefits.\nWhat will be the income ratio between men and women employed full-time by 2025?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from the [United States Census Bureau from Figure 5](https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2020/demo/p60-270.html) (as of 12/20). Figure 5 is labeled as \"Female-to-Male Earnings Ratio and Median Earnings of Full-Time, Year-Round Workers 15 Years and Older by Sex: 1960 to 2019.\" Historical data is also available from 1959 onward. Predictions should be represented as the a ratio between 0 and 1.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:25.869Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:36.042Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -54934,7 +55092,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\n[Computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision#:~:text=Computer%20vision%20is%20an%20interdisciplinary,human%20visual%20system%20can%20do.) is a field that deals with how computers can gain high-level understanding from digital images or videos. Pattern recognition is the related problem of recognition of patterns and regularities in data.\nHow many Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Computer Vision e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Computer Vision e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the \"[cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_firstt)\" tag. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CV](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cv&terms-0-field=all&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers image processing, computer vision, pattern recognition, and scene understanding. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Classes I.2.10, I.4, and I.5.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---5,721 for the calendar year 2017 \n---8,592 for the calendar year 2018 \n---11,596 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:27.665Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:38.293Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 172, "resolution_data": { @@ -54964,7 +55122,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:31.506Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:39.497Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 74, "resolution_data": { @@ -54994,7 +55152,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:33.225Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:40.768Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -55013,7 +55171,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Quantum computing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computing) has shown remarkable advancements in the past decade. In that time, quantum processors went from being almost purely theoretical devices to arguably achieving [computational supremacy](https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/23/20928294/google-quantum-supremacy-sycamore-computer-qubit-milestone) over classical computers in a limited scope.\nAmong the most promising capabilities of any sufficiently powerful quantum computer is their ability to factor very large numbers, the difficulty of which underlies many current cryptography systems. One of the best known quantum algorithms, known as [Shor's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shor%27s_algorithm), has the potential to run almost exponentially faster than the most efficient known classical factoring algorithm.\nThat being said, we’re currently quite a ways away from being able to use it in practice. As of writing, the largest number factored via Shor's algorithm is still [only 21](https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.4147), achieved back in 2012. While current state-of-the-art quantum processors possess on the order of dozens of qubits, it is estimated that in order to factorize semiprimes on the same scale as those used in modern RSA cryptography would take [thousands](https://security.stackexchange.com/questions/87345/how-many-qubits-are-needed-to-factor-2048-bit-rsa-keys-on-a-quantum-computer) [of qubits](https://quantumcomputing.stackexchange.com/questions/5048/how-many-logical-qubits-are-needed-to-run-shors-algorithm-efficiently-on-large).\nIn order to encourage research into the problem of factoring large integers and potentially cracking RSA keys, RSA Laboratories put forward their [RSA Factoring Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge) in 1991. Though the challenges officially ended in 2007, they’re still used as a common benchmark for factoring to this day. The largest number factored so far, [RSA-240](https://lists.gforge.inria.fr/pipermail/cado-nfs-discuss/2019-December/001139.html), was publicized only last December. The full list of numbers, including all known factorizations, can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_numbers).\nWhen will a quantum computer running Shor's algorithm (or another polynomial-time integer factorization algorithm) be used to factor one of the previously unfactored RSA numbers for the first time?\nResolution will occur via credible media report and the public release of the prime factors. The factored RSA number must be one that previously had no publicly known factorization. If a quantum computer factors RSA-100 for example, that won't satisfy our criteria. The question will resolve retroactively 30 days before the announcement of the factors. The question resolves ambiguous if every RSA number ends up being factored via classical computer first.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:35.033Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:41.945Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 122, "resolution_data": { @@ -55043,7 +55201,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:36.835Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:43.181Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { @@ -55073,7 +55231,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:38.631Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:44.465Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 343, "resolution_data": { @@ -55092,7 +55250,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "It's an open secret that student loan debts are crippling millions of Americans – particularly Millennials. \n[CNBC estimated](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/15/heres-how-much-the-average-student-loan-borrower-owes-when-they-graduate.html) that nearly 3 out of 4 college grads leave school \"with a significant amount of loans\" and estimates that Americans have around $1.5 trillion in student debt, collectively. That's \"trillion\" with a \"T\". See [this link for additional up-to-date numbers.](https://careerswiki.com/student-loan-debt-statistics/)\nIn November 2017, Rolling Stone columnist Matt Taibbi reported on the crisis in [apocalyptic terms](https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/features/taibbi-the-great-college-loan-swindle-w510880):\nThe average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase. In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50 years. \nMany independent financial analysts believe this situation is untenable.\nIn April 2017, a Financial Times analyst [observed](https://www.ft.com/content/a272ee4c-1b83-11e7-bcac-6d03d067f81f) that \"In an eerie echo of the housing crisis, debt is already flowing out of the private sector, and into the public.\"\nBillionaire Mark Cuban has said [straight up](https://www.inc.com/mark-cuban/video-student-loans-bubble.html): \"I think the student loan bubble is going to burst.\"\nClearly, some change is due. But when exactly will this bubble \"burst\"? We'll define this popping as a jump in the student load default rate. Those rates are tabulated various places, but depend a lot on the timescale. For example official [Federal student loan default rates](https://www2.ed.gov/offices/OSFAP/defaultmanagement/schooltyperates.pdf) define a 3-year rate, which is at 10.8% for fiscal year 2015, by \nA cohort default rate is the percentage of a school's borrowers who enter repayment on certain Federal Family Education Loan (FFEL) Program or William D. Ford Federal Direct Loan (Direct Loan) Program loans during a particular federal fiscal year (FY), October 1 to September 30, and default or meet other specified conditions prior to the end of the second following fiscal year.\nA [longer-term study](https://www.brookings.edu/research/the-looming-student-loan-default-crisis-is-worse-than-we-thought/) looks at default rates for 1996 and 2004 cohorts and finds that of those who took out loans, 18.2 and 27.2%, respectively, had defaulted 12 years later.\nWe'll ask: \nIn what year (if ever) will the 3-year rate, as defined above, reach 20% OR the 12 year rate reach 40%? \nIn each case the resolution date is defined by the middle of the year at the end of the interval in question. Resolution is by govt. or private numbers comparable in methodology and results to the above two reports.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:40.426Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:45.701Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 156, "resolution_data": { @@ -55111,7 +55269,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since 2015 (at least) the FDA has listed on their website an easily interpretable list of drugs they approve each year. [Here is their list for 2019](https://www.fda.gov/drugs/new-drugs-fda-cders-new-molecular-entities-and-new-therapeutic-biological-products/novel-drug-approvals-2019) (the last complete list, as of writing this question).\nThis question mirrors [a question I wrote for 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5839/drugs-approved-by-fda-in-2021/). I created this question because it has a longer timeline, and therefore can potentially be informed by [the recent Deepmind protein folding breakthrough](https://deepmind.com/blog/article/alphafold-a-solution-to-a-50-year-old-grand-challenge-in-biology). It's also a good test for [Eroom's law](https://www.theifod.com/erooms-law-explaining-the-decline-in-drug-discovery/), the observation that drugs have gotten exponentially more difficult to develop over time.\nHow many drugs will be approved by the FDA in 2035?\nThis question resolves as the number of drugs approved by the FDA in 2035, as reported by the FDA or credible media. In case the FDA is abolished before 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:42.089Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:47.780Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -55130,7 +55288,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Although there is a vaccine against influenza, the influenza virus' rapid mutation rate means that the vaccine must be [reformulated each year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza#Vaccination) in order to protect against the strains that are expected to be most common. The inconvenience of getting a flu vaccine every year may contribute to low flu vaccination coverage (roughly [37% of adults in the US](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1718estimates.htm) in 2017). Furthermore, unlike many other vaccines, the flu vaccine is far from a guarantee of protection, with effectiveness as low as [40%](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/2019-2020.html), partially because the vaccine only covers the three or four most common strains.\nFor at least a decade, various groups such as [BiondVax](http://www.biondvax.com/) and [Distributed Bio](https://www.distributedbio.com/centivax) have been working on a universal flu vaccine, which would not need to be reformulated each year. A highly effective universal flu vaccine combined with a strong vaccination campaign could lead to the flu being virtually eliminated in some places, as with other diseases such as measles and tuberculosis. However, even a moderately effective universal flu vaccine might substantially increase vaccination coverage and reduce flu severity.\nWhen will a universal flu vaccine be available?\n---To be considered available, a vaccine must be approved by the United States Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicine Agency. The resolution date is the first date of approval. \n---A universal flu vaccine must meet one of the following conditions.\n------The vaccine is effective for multiple years. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses that it may be received less than once per year. \n------The vaccine is effective against unseen strains. That is, the FDA/EMA endorses the use of a version of the vaccine that was formulated without using the WHO's current yearly recommended vaccine composition (or any similar yearly recommendation). \n---Beyond the above conditions, there are no specific requirements on effectiveness. \n---It is acceptable if the universal flu vaccine is recommended in conjunction with, and not as a replacement to, traditional flu vaccines. \n---Since even existing flu vaccines may provide some residual protection against the flu, the vaccine in question must be described or advertised as being universal, broad-spectrum, etc. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:44.100Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:48.927Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 69, "resolution_data": { @@ -55149,7 +55307,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The first commercial product we might see from the growth of animal cells is not a piece of cultivated meat to eat, but rather meat flavoring. This would be something like Impossible's 'heme' additive, but built from cultivated meat.\nIt seems extremely likely that FDA or USDA approval is necessary before cultivated meat flavoring would be added to food for sale in the US, so we'll ask:\nWhen will a cultivated meat flavoring product be approved for human consumption? \nQuestion resolves when an announcement is made by the FDA, USDA, an industry group, a credible statement by a company, or other multiply-sourced credible reporting that approval has been obtained to add cultivated meat flavoring to a consumer food product.\nResolves as ambiguous if a clean meat flavoring goes to market without any of the above triggers occurring.\n(Edited 1/6/20 to to update terminology.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:46.221Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:50.091Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { @@ -55168,7 +55326,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn the U.S., 2020 Q2 saw vastly expanded unemployment insurance transfers ([FRED source](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/W825RC1)), up to approximately $1.1 trillion in 2020 Q2 from a baseline of $27.7 billion in 2019 (figures seasonally adjusted and annualized).\nA [large fraction](https://www.bea.gov/system/files/2020-07/effects-of-selected-federal-pandemic-response-programs-on-personal-income-2020q2-advance.pdf) of this increase was due to the Federal Pandemic Unemployment Compensation (PUC) program, which provided an additional $600/week unemployment payment until it expired on July 31st, 2020. \nA new [COVID-19 relief bill](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/14/what-is-in-the-bipartisan-coronavirus-relief-bill-unveiled-monday.html) came before Congress this Monday, December 14th, offering $908 billion dollars. \n“The package is broken into two bills: The $738 billion Bipartisan Emergency COVID Relief Act of 2020 includes funding for enhanced unemployment benefits, another round of small business loans, emergency food assistance and emergency rental relief, among many other provisions, according to a summary of the package. Meanwhile, the $160 billion Bipartisan State and Local Support and Small Business Protection Act of 2020 provides liability insurance for businesses and funding for state, local and tribal aid.”\nIn its [Personal Income and Outlays](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) reports, the BEA provides monthly, quarterly, and annual figures including total unemployment insurance transfers.\nHistorical data is provided on BEA's National Accounts [archive](https://apps.bea.gov/histdata/histChildLevels.cfm?HMI=7). As an example, the data from July 2020 is provided [here](https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2020-08/pi0720.pdf#page=7).\nA similar question for Q4 2020 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5242/cares-act-unemployment-payments-in-2020-q4/)\nWhat will (seasonally-adjusted, annualized) unemployment insurance payments be in 2021 Q1, in billions of $USD?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolves based on the latest BEA [Personal Income and Outlays report](https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income) as of the question resolution date, titled \"Unemployment insurance\", using the seasonally-adjusted annualized figure for 2021 Q1. As of the October 2020 release, this row is on line 26 of Table 1. If no BEA estimates have been released by the question resolution date, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:49.386Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:52.049Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 163, "resolution_data": { @@ -55187,7 +55345,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to estimates by [Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2017)](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/QL), an estimated 1,485 million pigs were slaughtered in 2017. \nHow many millions of pigs will be slaughtered worldwide, in the calendar year 2030, according to FAO estimates?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve based [FAO estimates](http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/?#data/QL) of the number total pigs produced/slaughtered in the calendar year 2030. The relevant data is generated by the following query: \nRegions: World + (Total), Items: Meat, pig, Elements: \"Producing Animals/Slaughtered\"\nForecasts released before December 1st of 2030 do not qualify as estimates.\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M3MpDDwTTOJMrhnPJYkAjWyk4YgirO5b0A8g-JCEZ9I/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:51.419Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:53.234Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -55217,7 +55375,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:53.604Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:54.473Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 589, "resolution_data": { @@ -55236,9 +55394,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics.\n[The Women's 100m time had been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) but has been static since the 1980s. [This is consistent with most women's athletics records](https://sportsscientists.com/2016/08/world-records-fossils/) and is likely related to the systemtic doping from that era.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Womens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Women's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated questions:\n[Men's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5860/2020-mens-100m-final/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:55.450Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:55.616Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 58, + "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55255,7 +55413,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Hundreds of social media apps are launched every year](https://www.crunchbase.com/hub/social-media-startups), with most failing to gain traction. Meanwhile, [social media use is booming in the developing world](https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2018/06/19/social-media-use-continues-to-rise-in-developing-countries-but-plateaus-across-developed-ones). Occasionally, one of these platforms - for instance, TikTok - [will encounter exponential growth, outperforming its rivals by a significant margin](https://www.businessinsider.com.au/tiktok-hits-15-billion-downloads-outperforming-instagram-2019-11). \nThe question asks: When will a currently-undiscovered social media app reach one billion downloads worldwide?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"currently undiscovered\" is defined as either having fewer than 10,000 downloads across the iOS App Store and the Android Play Store as of March 15, 2020 UTC 00:00, or being non-existent/unavailable to the general public at the time. This question should resolve on the date that a social media app meeting this qualification reaches a combined one billion downloads on Android and iOS devices global. If a new mobile operating system and app store - for instance, Huawei's HarmonyOS - becomes popular enough to significantly affect a global download count, it may be included at moderator discretion.\nFor this question, a \"social media\" is defined as one that appears on this [statista list](https://www.statista.com/statistics/272014/global-social-networks-ranked-by-number-of-users/). If it is not available at resolution time, then either [this wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_media#Statistics_on_usage_and_membership) may be consulted or a suitable replacement may be chosen by Metaculus.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:57.283Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:56.771Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { @@ -55274,7 +55432,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2021-02-14 to 2031-02-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2031-02-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in their abstract:\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can execute the query [here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n---420 in the calendar year 202 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:39:59.113Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:57.931Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -55293,9 +55451,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\n[Nonfarm payroll employment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nonfarm_payrolls) is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It does not include farm workers, private household employees, or non-profit organization employees.\nIt is an influential statistic and economic indicator released monthly by the United States Department of Labor as part of a comprehensive report on the state of the labor market.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases preliminary data on the third Friday after the conclusion of the reference week, i.e., the week which includes the 12th of the month, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time; typically this date occurs on the first Friday of the month. Nonfarm payroll is included in the monthly Employment Situation or informally the jobs report and affects the US dollar, the Foreign exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. \nYou can see [historical data for this figure here.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls)\nDue to the [ongoing coronavirus pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_coronavirus_pandemic), there has been a major selloff in world financial markets, and [more than 22 million Americans lost their jobs in a four-week period during March and April 2020.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims) The unemployment rate, while falling slowly, sat at [6.7%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE) by the end of December. And, by late January, over [400,000](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days) Americans had lost their lives.\nWith [the vaccines](https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines?adgroupsurvey={adgroupsurvey}&gclid=Cj0KCQiA2uH-BRCCARIsAEeef3kg3TCUoqZseDlkxV2d9p1jPRvkWnPez6NAWX7QBlzz5pHhhOdaONUaAo5yEALw_wcB) currently being distributed, more people should be able to return to work as the economy re-opens, raising the labor force and employment rates.\nSimilar Questions:\n[January 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5989/january-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\n[February 2021 US nonfarm payrolls](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5990/february-2021-us-nonfarm-payrolls-figure-be/)\nFor the month of April 2021, what will the US Bureau of Labor Statistics report as the preliminary monthly nonfarm payroll number (in millions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution should cite the US Bureau of Labor Statistics release of the preliminary [NFP figure](https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001&output_view=net_1mth) for the month of February, which will be released in early March. This question does not refer to any later revisions that may be released.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:00.863Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:34:59.249Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 78, + "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-31T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55312,7 +55470,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Human Development Index (HDI)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_Human_Development_Index) is a composite score of national well-being developed and maintained by the United Nations. It combines health (longevity), education (years of schooling) and economic (GNI per capita) into a single metric for year to year modeling. China has been increasing very quickly in this metric, presumably due to catch-up effects from the economic depression caused by communism. Such catch-up effects are well-studied in economics, and can be seen for countries that were bombed in World War 2 (mainly [Japan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_economic_miracle) and West Germany), and in other wars. However, at some point, catch-up effects end because the indicator has reached its long-term stable trend. It is unclear, though, where this trend might be for China. Japan is currently at 0,915, South Korea at 0.906. Both have relatively fast growth rates in years 2010-2018 compared to many Western countries (e.g. Norway at 0.16/year, Germany at 0.25/year). China's current growth-rate for the same period is currently an astronomical 0.95/year.\nThis question asks:\nWhat will China's HDI score be in 2030?\n--- \nThis question resolves as China's score according to the UN's Human Development Report 2031. The latest version of the report can be found [here](http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi).\n--- \nIf the UN stops publishing this value, or substantively changes the definition (for example by adding more components), this question resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:02.973Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:00.436Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { @@ -55331,7 +55489,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Novel coronavirus (COVID-19)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)), as denoted by the World Health Organization, also known as Wuhan coronavirus or Wuhan seafood market pneumonia virus, is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus)\nThere are already questions about the number of deaths that will be attributed to the disease before 2021, as well as the number of cases and estimated infections that will develop. However, there are some reasons why specific questions about ratios of these values will be useful:\n--- \nWhile dividing the median for deaths by the median for estimated infections may give a reasonable point estimate, it doesn't give all the info we want. With this question, we will be able to see the distribution of infection-mortality rates. This cannot be reliably inferred using the distributions for number of cases and number of deaths, because the variables are correlated.\n--- \nThe time-series graph provided by the question will show how predictions about infection-fatality rates change over time.\nResolution: The resolution for this question will be determined by directly dividing the number of fatalities by the total number of cases, using the resolution values given by the following two Metaculus questions:\n--- \nNumerator: [How many people will die as a result of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) before 2021?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/3530/how-many-people-will-die-as-a-result-of-the-2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-before-2021/)\n--- \nDenominator: [How many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will be estimated to have occurred worldwide, before 2021? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/)\nThere may be more sophisticated ways of determining infection-fatality rate, but we would like to stay consistent with the other Metaculus questions.\nEdited 2020-03-06 to clarify that this is the infection-fatality ratio rather than the case-fatality ratio.\nEdited 2020-04-29 to clarify that this question resolves as the estimated number of deaths before 2021 divided by the estimated number of infections before 2021.\nEdited 2020-05-17 to change the denominator from [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3529/how-many-infections-of-covid-19-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-before-2021-50k-1b-range/), to the [improved version of that question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3892/how-many-infections-of-sars-cov-2-novel-coronavirus-will-be-estimated-to-have-occurred-worldwide-before-2021/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:06.062Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:01.825Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1782, "resolution_data": { @@ -55350,7 +55508,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Payment channels have been promoted as a way to increase the transaction capacity of the Bitcoin network, particularly when many payment channels are connected to form the [lightning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning_Network) [network](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lightning-network.asp). A mainnet version has been running since early 2018.\nAt 00:00 UTC on August 25th of 2021, what will be the network capacity of the lightning network on the Bitcoin (BTC) blockchain, as measured in units of Bitcoin, as reported by [bitcoinvisuals.com](https://bitcoinvisuals.com/ln-capacity)?\nDifferent sources report somewhat different numbers for the number of channels/nodes/BTC capacity. Not all nodes are visible to all other nodes at all times, so reports published by different groups vary by small amounts. For this forecast we’re using the figure reported on [bitcoinvisuals.com](http://bitcoinvisuals.com) simply because you can also download their data in spreadseets. If that site stops updating, we will switch to [1ml.com](http://1ml.com), and then a third source if needed.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:08.069Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:03.503Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 159, "resolution_data": { @@ -55380,9 +55538,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:09.883Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:05.755Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 264, + "numforecasts": 265, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55410,7 +55568,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:11.773Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:07.575Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 156, "resolution_data": { @@ -55429,9 +55587,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports information about many things in the U.S. One is the civilian labor force participation [rate](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm), 16 and older. Here’s a [longer-term chart](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART).\nNote how this differs from the participation rate of people [16 to 54](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300060), which is far higher (this excludes most retired people, and also some disabled people since many disabilities are strongly correlated with age). This question will be focusing on the broader 16+ metric.\nWhat will the BLS report as the U.S. civilian labor force participation rate (total including all ethnicities, 16 and older) for October of 2025?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:15.969Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:08.889Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 85, + "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-30T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55459,7 +55617,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:17.812Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:10.110Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 259, "resolution_data": { @@ -55489,7 +55647,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:19.830Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:11.290Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 226, "resolution_data": { @@ -55508,7 +55666,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\n[Medicare](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medicare_(United_States)), brought into existence by President Johnson in 1966, aimed to provide health insurance to US citizens over the age of 65 and to other individuals with disability status. In 2018, Medicare provided aid to almost 60 million individuals across America. At the end of 2020, Medicare constituted the second largest portion of the federal budget at 13.5% with a total monetary allocation of $1.3 trillion dollars.\nWhile beneficial to millions of Americans, the program still faces distrust and dislike by some portions of the American public, and most recently, President Trump. In January 2020, President [Trump announced](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/22/trump-appears-open-overhauling-social-security-medicare-break-2016-campaign/) that if elected again, he would begin the process of rolling back essential programs like Medicare and Social Security. Although President Elect Biden secured the win in the presidential election in 2020, Medicare is still estimated to [run out of proper funding](https://www.aarp.org/content/dam/aarp/health/medicare-and-medicaid/2012-05/The-Future-Of-Medicare.pdf) for all expected expenses by 2024. \nWith an aging population in the US, the amount of money dedicated to health insurance, especially during the period of time during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, will need to increase to fully cover the growing number of health expenses. Since 2017, the amount of money dedicated to Medicare has already increased by approximately $300 billion dollars.\nWhat percentage of the federal budget will be used for Medicare in 2024?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2024 should be available early in 2025, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:23.556Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:13.505Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { @@ -55527,7 +55685,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A quick primer on the now-industry-standard SAE International rules on how to discuss self-driving abilities: Level 0 is no automation whatsoever. Level 1 is partial assistance with certain aspects of driving, like lane keep assist or adaptive cruise control. Level 2 is a step up to systems that can take control of the vehicle in certain situations, like Tesla's Autopilot or Cadillac's Super Cruise, while still requiring the driver to pay attention.\nGet past that and we enter the realm of speculation: Level 3 promises full computer control without supervision under defined conditions during a journey, Level 4 is start-to-finish autonomous tech limited only by virtual safeguards like a geofence, and Level 5 is the total hands-off, go literally anywhere at the push of a button experience where the vehicle might not even have physical controls.\n(source: [Key Volkswagen Exec Admits Full Self-Driving Cars 'May Never Happen'](https://www.thedrive.com/tech/31816/key-volkswagen-exec-admits-level-5-autonomous-cars-may-never-happen))\nIf SAE makes a statement confirming or refuting that a L3 self-driving car has been achieved, this acts as the authoritative body. Failing that, a L3 self-driving car will be deemed commercially available when a relevant Wikipedia article (prioritizing the Self-driving car one if it still exists) says L3 self-driving car is commercially available for at least 6 months, 90% of the time (to compensate for troll edits). If Wikipedia stops existing, then a Metaculus moderator will resolve the question using their judgement.\nMore information on self-driving cars: [Self-driving car — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car)\nRelated questions:\n---[When will L4 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3771/when-will-l4-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n---[When will L5 autonomous vehicles be commercially available?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3729/when-will-l5-autonomous-vehicles-be-commercially-available/) \n[ETA 2020-11-19]: commercially available cars include vehicles used for ridesharing, robotaxis, etc.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:25.912Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:15.157Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 181, "resolution_data": { @@ -55557,7 +55715,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:27.774Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:16.797Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -55576,9 +55734,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Economic historians have often emphasized the role [economic growth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_growth) plays as perhaps the most important phenomena of human history. In a quite real sense, economic growth is what distinguishes 21st century humanity from our distant ancestors who had no technology or civilization.\nBy estimating historical economic growth, economists have [identified](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/longgrow.html) two crucial events in the history of humanity which greatly accelerated the rate of growth: the agricultural revolution roughly 10,000 years ago, and the industrial revolution roughly 200 years ago.\nMany theorists now anticipate that there will be a another crucial event in which economic growth rates greatly accelerate, roughly timed with the development of advanced artificial intelligence. In line with these predictions, economic growth is the [primary specific benchmark](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YgNYA6pj2hPSDQiTE/distinguishing-definitions-of-takeoff) people have used to characterize potential future AI takeoff.\nEconomic growth here is measured by real world GDP growth over one year. However, since economic growth can also accelerate following a recession, this question will not ask about economic growth per se, but instead about GDP levels reaching a new height.\nIn particular this question asks, what will be the first year when world real GDP exceeds 130% of all prior years, as reported by a reputable organization such as the World Bank?\nThis question resolves January 1st on the year of resolution. In case the conditions for this questions are not satisfied by the end of 2200, this question resolves \">\".\nFor context, see the World Bank's historical world real GDP growth rates [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). For a longer timescale, see [this post](https://aiimpacts.org/historical-growth-trends/) from AI Impacts, and [this one](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/blog/modeling-human-trajectory) from Open Philanthopy.\nSee also these related questions,\n[If human-level artificial intelligence is developed, will World GDP grow by at least 30.0% in any of the subsequent 15 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3477/if-human-level-artificial-intelligence-is-developed-will-world-gdp-grow-by-at-least-300-in-any-of-the-subsequent-15-years/)\n[What will the maximum world real GDP growth in percentage points be for a single year in the 21st century?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4050/what-will-the-maximum-world-real-gdp-growth-in-percentage-points-be-for-a-single-year-in-the-21st-century/)\n[Will the human condition change fundamentally before 2100?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1646/will-the-human-condition-change-fundamentally-before-2100/)\n[What will be the real world GDP on the year AGI is deployed, in trillions of dollars?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4215/what-will-be-the-real-world-gdp-on-the-year-agi-is-deployed-in-trillions-of-dollars/)\n[What will the world real GDP growth rate be in 2030?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3626/what-will-the-world-real-gdp-growth-rate-be-in-2030/)\n[When will the first Artificial General Intelligence system be devised, tested, and publicly known of?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:31.039Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:18.366Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 72, + "numforecasts": 74, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-30T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55606,7 +55764,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:34.692Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:20.694Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { @@ -55625,7 +55783,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Electricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al.[[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the stock market bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat will the combined sector weighting of Information Technology and Communications be, in the S&P 500 on 2030-01-01?\nThis resolves as the sum of the sector weightings of Information Technology and Communication Services of the [SPDR S&P 500 ETF](https://us.spdrs.com/en/etf/spdr-sp-500-etf-SPY) on 2030-01-01 (in %), according to its Index Sector Breakdown. In case that particular ETF is no longer other data sources on the S&P500 may be consulted.\nAs of writing, the S&P500 has a 27.71% weighting in IT and 11.13% in Communications Services. If it were to resolve now, it would resolve as 27.71% + 11.13% = 38.84%.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:36.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:21.857Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -55644,7 +55802,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Boring Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company) is a company that constructs and operates tunnel boring machines (TBMs), with the aim of substantially improving the speed and cost of tunnel boring. The tunnels are initially being proposed for use in train-like transport between fixed stops, but The Boring Company's stated long-term goal is to establish a vast tunnel network similar to current road networks. It was established in 2016 by Elon Musk and SpaceX employees, after Musk became frustrated at Los Angeles traffic.\nApparently, typical TBMs can tunnel through the earth at a sustained rate of [60 feet](https://www.quora.com/How-fast-can-a-tunnel-boring-machine-drill-under-good-conditions-How-does-it-go-that-fast) (18 m) per day. Recently, The Boring Company completed its [second tunnel](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1261078175234191360) in Las Vegas. As the second 0.8-mile tunnel was supposedly started after the first one was finished on [February 14th](https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1228391734213660672), the second tunnel was dug was roughly 47 feet (14 m) per day, including time spent on e.g. constructing the stations at each end. This is comparable to other modern machines, but still far from their goal of tunneling as fast as a snail; in 2008, the world championship snail racer moved at a rate of [~0.0016 m/s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snail_racing) or 140 m/day, about ten times faster.\nThe Boring Company has a number of ideas to improve tunneling speed, including nonstop tunneling (putting in supports while the machine is still boring), increased power, reduced tunnel diameter, etc. It started with an off-the-shelf TBM named [Godot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Boring_Company#Boring_machines) and has developed or is developing improved TBMs named Line-storm and Prufrock; it is not clear which was used to bore the Las Vegas tunnel.\nWhen will The Boring Company dig a tunnel at a rate of 140 meters per day?\n---This question may resolve if The Boring Company or its representative issues a statement that one of its TBMs is currently tunneling, or has tunneled, at a rate of at least 140 meters per day (even momentarily, e.g. 6 m in one hour). \n---This question may also resolve if some tunnel, at least 1 km long, is completed at a rate of at least 140 meters per day, from the moment that the TBM starts boring the earth at the entrance, to when it breaks through the exit. \n---This must be accomplished by one TBM, not e.g. 10 TBMs all tunneling at 14 m/day. \n---If neither of the first two conditions is satisfied by the end date, this question resolves as the upper bound. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:38.349Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:24.037Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 113, "resolution_data": { @@ -55663,7 +55821,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Image classification](https://paperswithcode.com/task/image-classification) is the process of analysing pixels or vectors within an image and identifying the 'class' the image falls under. Image classification is one of many tasks within the field of [computer vision](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_vision).\nAmongst the most widely used benchmarks for testing image classifiers are the following five:\n1-- \n[ImageNet](http://www.image-net.org/) is an image database organized according to the WordNet hierarchy, in which each node of the hierarchy is depicted by hundreds and thousands of images. \n2-- \n[STL-10](https://cs.stanford.edu/~acoates/stl10/) is an image recognition dataset for developing unsupervised feature learning, deep learning, self-taught learning algorithms.\n3-- \n[CIFAR-10](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIFAR-10) contains 60,000 32x32 color images in 10 different classes. The 10 different classes represent airplanes, cars, birds, cats, deer, dogs, frogs, horses, ships, and trucks.\n4-- \n[CIFAR-100](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~kriz/cifar.html) is just like the CIFAR-10, except it has 100 classes containing 600 images each.\n5-- \n[MNIST](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MNIST_database) is a large database of handwritten digits, containing 60,000 training images and 10,000 testing images.\nWhich image classification benchmark will be most popular in the calendar year 2022?\nThe question resolves as the index number given to the benchmark in the above list which has most model submissions on [Papers With Code](https://paperswithcode.com/task/language-modelling) in 2022.\nIn 2019, the following model submissions were made for each benchmark:\n--- \nImageNet: 99\n--- \nSTL-10: 24\n--- \nCIFAR-10: 20\n--- \nCIFAR-100: 18\n--- \nMNIST: 10\nHence, since ImageNet had the most submissions in 2019, a similar question for 2019 would have resolved as 1.\nThe submission date will be the first date when the the relevant article or pre-print is publicly available. In case Papers with Code misreports the publication date, we shall consult other sources for the true model submission date.\nAny model submission counts, even if the performance is low, code is unavailable, if additional training data was used, or the performance is not reported. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:42.558Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:25.841Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -55676,25 +55834,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:44.528Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 44, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2017-09-09T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution be amended or repealed before 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1650/will-the-second-amendment-to-the-united-states-constitution-be-amended-or-repealed-before-2025/", @@ -55712,9 +55851,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:46.312Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:27.618Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 159, + "numforecasts": 160, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55725,6 +55864,25 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "If you fall and can't get up, when will there be a friendly computer looking on to notice your predicament?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/548/if-you-fall-and-cant-get-up-when-will-there-be-a-friendly-computer-to-hear-you/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "The catchphrase [\"I've fallen and I can't get up,\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I%27ve_fallen,_and_I_can%27t_get_up!) appearing in commercials for the LifeCall medical alert system in the late '80s and early '90s, brought attention to the fact that falls by elderly people present a significant health and safety risk. Nearly [three million older adults](https://www.cdc.gov/homeandrecreationalsafety/falls/adultfalls.html) are treated in emergency rooms for falls each year, with the injuries including hip fractures and traumatic brain injury.\nResearchers have been developing computer vision-based systems to detect when adults fall. The latest effort is a 3D system that uses two cameras to discern the floor surface, estimate the pose of a human in the picture, and tell whether or not that person has fallen to the ground. The authors of [the paper describing the system](https://arxiv.org/abs/1707.07608) write that the system can determine non-flat planes too, such as ramps. In tests simulating home and office environments, the system correctly identified whether a person had fallen or not 93% and 91% of the time, respectively.\nWhen will a computer vision system to detect falls in elderly populations enter the commercial market?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a commercial product with the express aim of detecting when elderly people have fallen using computer vision, is offered for sale. Resolution is by announcement/evidence that one can actually order order or pre-order the device, if pre-ordering requires payment or deposit.\n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:29.485Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 44, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2017-09-09T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2018-01-01T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "Qualia Research Institute Question Series: Will MDMA be approved for the treatment of PTSD by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1384/qualia-research-institute-question-series-will-mdma-be-approved-for-the-treatment-of-ptsd-by-2025/", @@ -55742,7 +55900,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:48.332Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:30.642Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 225, "resolution_data": { @@ -55772,7 +55930,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:50.009Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:31.819Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { @@ -55791,7 +55949,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Worldwide energy demand amounts to around [13 terawatts of power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption). The amount of energy coming from renewable sources is a paltry [3.5%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_consumption) of the world's power needs. [228 GW](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of that power comes from solar energy. \nEurope is currently the leader in solar or photovoltaic (PV) capacity, producing around [40%](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390) of the world's solar energy. In terms of growth, China and Japan are the global leaders, together comprising [51% of growth in PV installations in 2015](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3&eID=dam_frontend_push&docID=3390).\nGrowth of PV installations over the past five years has been phenomenal, with a growth rate of between [29 and 42%](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics) every year. Projections of future growth are equally impressive, ranging from around [400 to nearly 700 GW](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics#Global_short-term_forecast_.282020.29) of PV capacity in 2020. \nProjections have [historically underestimated](http://www.theenergycollective.com/onclimatechangepolicy/286586/why-have-iea-s-projections-renewables-growth-been-so-much-lower-out-tur) estimate actual growth, however. The prices of PV energy continues to fall (see related question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/321/1-dollarwatt-solar-energy-by-2020/)) and projection methodologies may in some cases fail to capture factors such as transformative technologies that may further drive PV growth.\nHow much global solar photovoltaic electricity-generating capacity, in gigawatts, will be in operation by 2020?\nThe definitive source for question resolution will be the annual \"[Trends](http://www.iea-pvps.org/index.php?id=3)\" report from the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org)'s [Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme](https://www.iea.org/tcp/renewables/pvps/). Because the report covers trends up to the year previous, resolution will be dependent on the report to be issued in late 2021. If this report should cease publication or substantially change its methodology, question resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:51.976Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:38.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 196, "resolution_data": { @@ -55810,7 +55968,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "An NFT (or Non-Fungible Token) is a unique cryptographic token. It can be used for art, collectibles, and online gaming.\nBy March 2021, the most expensive NFT ever sold was the Alien character from the CryptoPunks series, according to [Hackernoon](https://hackernoon.com/5-most-expensive-nfts-non-fungible-tokens-ever-sold-fd2t335j). Alien cost 605 ETH (or $761,889) at the moment of the deal.\nBy 2030, how much will the most expensive NFT be sold, in 2020 USD?\nThe price of the most expensive NFT sold by 2030. Prices are to be adjusted for inflation using the [Consumer Price Index: Total All Items for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPALTT01USQ661S).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:40:53.820Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:39.840Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 71, "resolution_data": { @@ -55829,7 +55987,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "All political parties eventually come to an end.\nMost U.S. political buffs have at least a glancing familiarity with the [demise of the Whigs](http://www.let.rug.nl/usa/essays/1801-1900/the-american-whig-party/the-end-of-the-party.php) in the mid-19th century. But other enduring partisan institutions have also fallen by the wayside--with some frequency, in fact--during our nation's history. (Consider, for instance, the [Federalists](https://www.history.com/topics/early-us/federalist-party), the [Free Soil Party](https://www.u-s-history.com/pages/h139.html), the [Know Nothings](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/immigrants-conspiracies-and-secret-society-launched-american-nativism-180961915/), the [list goes on](https://www.thoughtco.com/extinct-political-parties-of-the-1800s-1773940).)\nFor as long as any living American can attest, however, the Democrats and Republicans have dominated our institutions. \nBut this equillibrium eventually must give way. As Slate's Reihan Salam [points out](http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/03/the_republican_party_is_old_and_getting_older_that_s_a_huge_problem_for.html): \nDemocrats have a substantial edge with voters under 35 while Republicans are more likely to be on the older side of middle age and septuagenarians. The beauty of the over-65 set is that they are reliable voters. The bad news about them is that they are not long for this Earth.\nFrom almost all accounts, younger voters--particularly [Millennials](http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/376334-poll-dems-lead-gop-among-millennials-by-two-to-one-ratio) and [Gen Zers](http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/389016-parkland-and-the-political-coming-of-generation-z)--favor liberal/democratic causes in a big way. Once the Silent Generation dies off, and the Baby Boomers ride into the sunset, unless voters reallign, the GOP will be in the substantial minority. \nHowever, success is not guaranteed for the Democrats. At least in Europe, many of the traditional social democratic or socialist partiest were supplanted or are at least threatened to be overtaken by new (often populist) movements and parties. Examples include (La République) En Marche ! in France, Podemos in Spain, the Five Star Movement in Italy or Syriza in Greece\nFor how long will both Democratic and Republican parties exist? Resolution is triggered when:\n--- \nOne of the two parties formally dissolves or is converted into another party of another name, or\n--- \nEither there are no sitting Republican US congresspeople or no sitting Democratic US congresspeople, or\n--- \nA US presidential election occurs in which the set of candidates receiving 5% or more of the popular votes does not contain both a Democrat and a Republican.\nNote that this question is also in a sense a question on the dissolution of the American political system.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:03.191Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:41.107Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { @@ -55859,7 +56017,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:05.013Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:42.255Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 197, "resolution_data": { @@ -55889,9 +56047,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:06.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:43.485Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 150, + "numforecasts": 151, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-03T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -55908,7 +56066,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The size of the US's nuclear weapons stockpile reached a peak [in 1966 at around 30,000 warheads](https://thebulletin.org/nuclear-notebook-multimedia). Following the deescalation and the end of the Cold War, the number has substantially decreased. [Kristensen and Korda (2019)](https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2019.1606503) estimate that the US maintains a deployed stockpile of nearly 3,800 warheads. The approximate breakdown is as follows:\n---1,750 warheads are currently deployed, of which\n------1,300 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles, \n------300 at strategic bomber bases in the United States, \n------150 tactical bombs are deployed at air bases in Europe. \n---2,050 are in storage as a so-called hedge against technical or geopolitical surprises. \nIt is possible that this trend will reverse in a period of nuclear rearmament, especially if world tensions get worse. The Trump Administration’s [Nuclear Posture Review](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_Posture_Review) takes a confrontational tone, presenting an assertive posture that embraces “Great Power competition” and includes plans to expand the US' nuclear arsenal.\nIf the US has at least 3,800 nuclear warheads in 2029, what is the largest number of nuclear warheads it will maintain in its inventory in 2029?\nThis resolves as the largest number of nuclear warheads deployed or in storage in the 2029 period, conditional on this number being at least 3,800, as reported by credible sources such as the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists' Nuclear Notebook (such as [this one for 2019](https://thebulletin.org/2019/04/united-states-nuclear-forces-2019/)). A similar credible source may be consulted if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in no longer active or publishing reports. For the purposes of question resolution, warheads that are retired and awaiting dismantlement will not be counted.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the US maintains strictly fewer than 3,800 nuclear warheads in its inventory at any time in 2029.\nSee also the related question, [In 2029, will the US have fewer nuclear warheads than it did in 2019?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2817/in-2029-will-the-us-have-fewer-nuclear-warheads-than-it-did-in-2019/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:08.979Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:44.673Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 72, "resolution_data": { @@ -55927,7 +56085,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [Our World in Data,](https://ourworldindata.org/working-hours) the average American worked 62 hours per week in 1870. By the year 2000 this had declined to 40.25 hours per week; a decrease of over 35%. As of July 2019, the average American employee on US private nonfarm payrolls [worked 34.4 hours per week according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/average-weekly-hours)\nOver the coming decades, it is possible that [new technologies](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/jack-ma-proponent-of-12-hour-work-days-foresees-12-hour-workweeks/2019/08/29/fd081370-ca2a-11e9-9615-8f1a32962e04_story.html?noredirect=on) and [changes in working practices](https://hbr.org/2018/12/the-case-for-the-6-hour-workday) will enable workers to work fewer hours per week. \nThis question asks: in January 2030, how many hours per week will the average employee on US private nonfarm payrolls work, according to either the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, or the statistical authority tasked with providing this information?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:11.132Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:46.581Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { @@ -55946,7 +56104,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Universal Basic income (UBI), the idea of giving an unconditional social welfare payment, has been a perennial suggestion, going back [at least to the Great Depression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Share_Our_Wealth). \nRecently Democratic Candidate [Andrew Yang](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2657/will-andrew-yang-win-the-democratic-nomination/) has advocated for a payment of $1000/month to every American (equivalent to about 20% of the median household income in the USA). Some futurists believe that increasing automation will lead to widespread unemployment and calls for such a subsidy. Others argue that much like the industrial revolution, new jobs will replace those destroyed by automation.\nWhen will the first country with a population exceeding 1 million implement Universal Basic Income?\nIn order to qualify as a UBI for the purposes of this question, the UBI must consist of a payment that is:\n1-- \nUnconditional. Eligibility conditions must be sufficiently expansive to cover over 2/3 of the sum of those with citizenship and those with resident status, and at least 0.5M people (e.g. \"all citizens over the age of 18\"). There must not be special conditions related to work status, or willingness to work (hence programmes such as the [EITC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earned_income_tax_credit) do not count).\n2-- \nSubstantial. The sum of yearly payments must equal at least 10% of yearly median nominal personal income in that country, in that year.\n3-- \nGuaranteed. The UBI must guarantee a certain level of income to all members of the specified demographic group. A subsidy that phases out with income (such as a negative income tax) would count. \n4-- \nOngoing. The country must make these payments at least one full year with the expectation that they will continue to be paid in the future. A one time payment to all citizens without the expectation of similar recurring payments does not count even if it exceeds the 10% threshold.\nAdditional details: \n--- \nIf a UBI was provided by some source other than a country's government (such as a wealthy benefactor, or corporate entity) it would still count for the purposes of resolving this question so long as it met the above criteria within a particular country. \n--- \n\"Country\" for the purpose of this question means an entity recognized by the majority of UN members as exercising sole sovereignty over the territory where its population resides. A \"virtual nation\" or territory would not count.\n--- \nThe payment must be made in cash-form. The value of goods or services provided by the government does not count toward the 10% threshold even if these are commissioned as part of the income plan.\n--- \nThe question will resolve ambiguously if our socioeconomic system changes to such a degree that the terms \"country\" \"person\" and \"income\" can no longer be identified with their current commonly recognized definitions.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:13.633Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:47.914Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { @@ -55976,7 +56134,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:15.585Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:50.073Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -55995,7 +56153,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Reinforcement learning](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reinforcement_learning) is a type of machine learning which focuses on methods that enable agents to learn to maximize some posited conception of cumulative reward. It has been become a core method of AI and machine learning research and practice.\nThe [Arcade Learning Environment (ALE)](https://www.jair.org/media/3912/live-3912-7087-jair.pdf) is a platform that allows AI researchers to develop and evaluate algorithms across a wide array of Atari 2600 games in hopes of helping to spawn more general and domain-independent AI technology. The ALE's Atari games have been used for testing reinforcement learning algorithms in AI research since researchers at DeepMind Technologies applied the first deep learning model in 2013 to learn control policies directly from sensory input — namely, using a [convolutional neural network](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1312.5602.pdf). In their model, the input was raw pixels and output was a value function estimating future rewards.\nIn 2015, the [then-acquired-by-Google](https://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/) DeepMind used sensible [pseudo-counts](http://artint.info/html/ArtInt_174.html) from raw pixels and transformed those pseudo-counts into \"intrinsic rewards\" to learn to play a number of Atari 2600 games. In particular, for Montezuma's Revenge (the reputed most difficult Atari 2600 game), the AI with \"intrinsic rewards\" was able to [explore 15 out of the 24 rooms on the first level out of three](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). The same AI without \"intrinsic rewards\" only explored 2 out of 24.\nIn Montezuma's Revenge, an AI can show off its ability to explore its environment by [climbing down ladders, and then jumping skeletons in order to retrieve keys](https://www.wired.com/2015/02/google-ai-plays-atari-like-pros/) — demonstrating long-term planning ability and so-called [\"artificial curiosity\"](http://gizmodo.com/artificial-curiosity-allows-this-bot-to-triumph-at-mont-1781067908). \nWe ask:\nWhen will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?\nAs of question launch (July 2017), state of the art is 15 out of 24 rooms explored in 50 million frames of training by Google's DeepMind in 2015; see [paper](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.01868v1.pdf) & [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yI2wJ6F8r0). \nResolution will occur when a credible paper or video is produced of an AI agent exploring all 24 trap-filled rooms of Montezuma's Revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training (without previously being exposed to Montezuma's revenge or an essentially similar game, or using training data or code based on example solutions).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:17.521Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:51.505Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { @@ -56014,7 +56172,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Elon Musk and others have [publicly derided](https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/26/elon-musk-hates-hydrogen-but-automakers-are-still-investing-in-it.html) fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) versus battery electric vehicles (BEVs). For example, Musk expects Toyota to fold their hydrogen powered Mirai in coming years. Yet [some have argued](https://spectrum.ieee.org/green-tech/fuel-cells/why-the-automotive-future-will-be-dominated-by-fuel-cells) that hydrogen fuel cells will eventually dominate electric transportation. \nWhat global share, in annual revenues, will such vehicles have in truck transportation in 2030? For all ground transportation? For air transportation? For surface sea transportation?\nWe'll add these all up to ask:\nWhat percentage of the global electric transportation market will hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) be, in annual sales revenues, in 2030? \nResolution will compare a credible and objective estimate of the total annual saves revenues in fuel-cell drive electric vehicles to all electric vehicles (excluding gas-electric hybrids) in 2030.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:21.187Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:52.873Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 179, "resolution_data": { @@ -56033,7 +56191,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question that before 2100, some organization or person offers cryonics for free, meaning that all fees and associated costs are waived. There are a few reasons why this might happen,\n--- \nA wealthy person or organization begins offering it as a way of attracting people to cryonics.\n--- \nThe government subsidizes cryonics as an alternative to the expensive [end-of-life care](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End-of-life_care) industry that currently exists. The world population is expected to be [much older](https://ourworldindata.org/age-structure) on average in the near future, which could put strain on governments to cut healthcare costs.\nCryonics proponents have historically [given arguments](https://alcor.org/Library/html/cryopreservingeveryone.html) for why they expect cryonics to scale extremely well, which if true, would imply that the cost of signing everyone in the United States up would be relatively cheap per capita.\nAfter 10 years of when the offer was first made, what percentage of Americans will be signed up to receive cryonics? For reference, there are [currently](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) only about 1500 members signed up with Alcor, one of the largest cryonics organizations, which represents less than 0.00046% of the US population. \nFor the offering to count, there must be some sort of public message declaring the offer, and eligibility must be available to at least one hundred million people. The date of offering is the first date where a United States citizen receives a cryonics contract for free on behalf of an organization or person who is widely considered to be offering it as a gift to the general public (at least in the United States), rather than to some specific individuals. Here, a cryonics contract is defined as any legally binding commitment, by an organization plausibly capable of fulfilling it, to provide for cryopreservation of (at least) a person's brain provided that doing so is practically feasible.\nIf it is the case that the government provides the service as a routine procedure, and as such there is no literal contract to sign, the number of people said to be \"signed up\" in this case are the number of people the US Government promises to cryopreserve. As an example, if the US Government promised to preserve all United States citizens, then the proportion of citizens as a percentage of the total population of the United States (according to the latest Census projection) is the percentage of people in America \"signed up for cryonics.\"\nIf cryonics is not offered for free to the general public by any organization or person before 2100, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:23.000Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:54.449Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -56063,7 +56221,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:26.725Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:56.816Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 466, "resolution_data": { @@ -56093,7 +56251,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:30.831Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:35:59.346Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -56123,7 +56281,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:32.702Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:01.271Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 291, "resolution_data": { @@ -56142,7 +56300,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak is an ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), that has spread to multiple world regions. It is caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. As of 13 October 2020, more than 30 million cases have been confirmed. More than 1 million deaths have been directly attributed to the disease.\nWhich month of 2021 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?\nResolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the best available data for the whole world in 2021 as made available by WHO before the end of March 2022. The month with the highest number of new cases will be selected.\nThe new cases in a month should be computed as a simple difference between the best estimate of cases at the end and at the beginning of that month. Preferably based on Coronavirus disease (COVID-2019) situation reports - situation in numbers, total cases, globally. For example the number of new cases in February 2020 (75,2k) is the total number of cases at the end of February 2020 (85k) minus the total number of cases at the end of January 2020 (9,8k).\nIf the daily situation reports are not available, other data provided by WHO or ECDC can be used, at the discretion of Metaculus. If data with a resolution of at least a month is not available, the question will resolve ambiguous.\nPrevious question: [Which month of 2020 will see the biggest global increase of COVID-19 cases?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3781/which-month-of-2020-will-see-the-biggest-global-increase-of-covid-19-cases/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:34.492Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:02.496Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 221, "resolution_data": { @@ -56161,7 +56319,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based alternative foods have grown 11 percent in the past year, and 31% over the past two years ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). By comparison, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nThis brings the total plant-based alternatives market value to a total value of $4.5 billion in 2019. At [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/) the plant-based meat market is the second highest grossing plant-based alternatives product, after plant-based milk.\nMost dollar-sales of plant-based meat tend to come from frozen products (73% in 2019). However, this seems to changing quickly: product innovation and merchandising strategies have grown dollar sales of refrigerated plant-based meat by 85% ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)). \nWhat will the U.S. market for plant-based meat be worth in the year ending in April 2028, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation using a widely used CPI and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the U.S. market for plant-based meat is given by the sum of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: meat based burgers, nuggets, strips and cutlets, links, patties, grounds, deli slices, meatballs, loafs/roasts, shreds/pulled, jerky and other plant-based meats.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $584m in 2017, $731m in 2018, $801m in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:36.835Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:03.718Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -56180,7 +56338,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 09 December, the World Health Organization (WHO) is reporting a total of 68,165,877 confirmed COVID-19 cases worldwide. This global case number figure is gathered and compiled on a daily basis from the relevant national health authorities of each WHO member country.\nWhat will be the total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally by the end of 2021?\nThe [WHO COVID-19 Dashboard](https://covid19.who.int/) will be consulted on 1 January 2022 for confirmed case data reported by the WHO up to 31 December 2021. If their dashboard is not being actively updated at that time, then the latest [weekly WHO situation report](https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports) will be consulted.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:38.620Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:06.658Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 209, "resolution_data": { @@ -56210,7 +56368,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:42.225Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:07.861Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { @@ -56229,7 +56387,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) of 5.5 or more are designated as ‘Not Free’. Currently, 49 countries are designated as ‘Not Free. \nHow many countries will be designated as 'Not Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:44.123Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:09.052Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { @@ -56259,7 +56417,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:46.149Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:10.276Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 451, "resolution_data": { @@ -56278,7 +56436,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Constitutionally, the [Consultative Assembly of Qatar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consultative_Assembly_of_Qatar) is one-third appointed and two-thirds elected by popular vote; however, since the constitution was adopted in 2003, no legislative election has yet occured. The [first general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Qatari_general_election) was scheduled to be held in 2013, but was postponed to 2016, and then postponed again until at least 2019. In October 2019, a [committee was established](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-politics/qatar-takes-step-toward-first-shura-council-election-qna-agency-idUSKBN1XA1CH) to organize the elections lead by the Prime Minister, though thus far no date has been announced.\nWhen will Qatar hold its first legislative election?\nIf there are multiple days of voting, this question resolves as the date of the first day of voting.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:47.904Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:11.402Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { @@ -56308,7 +56466,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:50.107Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:12.592Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 370, "resolution_data": { @@ -56338,7 +56496,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:52.106Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:13.789Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { @@ -56357,7 +56515,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The computational complexity class of an algorithm is a measure of how the runtime increases as the input becomes larger. Often, these are written in big-O notation, where an algorithm running in time means that there is some constant for which the runtime will never exceed for an input of length .\nIn the case of [matrix multiplication](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matrix_multiplication), the best-known algorithm runs in polynomial time; multiplication of two square n×n matrices runs in time for some . Over time, the smallest known ω has been decreasing - faster algorithms have been discovered.\nNaive matrix multiplication, from directly evaluating the sum of the definition, has complexity in time. In 1969, Strassen discovered [Strassen's algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strassen%27s_algorithm), which has complexity in . By 1990, the [Coppersmith-Winograd algorithm](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coppersmith%E2%80%93Winograd_algorithm) was discovered, which has complexity in ; this has been improved slightly since, with the current best-known algorithm being Le Gall's, which has complexity in and was discovered in 2014.\nThe best known lower bound on matrix multiplication is ; it is known that there is no algorithm faster than this. So further improvement on Le Gall's algorithm has not yet been ruled out.\nIn 2029, what will be the smallest for which there is known to exist an algorithm to multiply two square n×n matrices which has complexity in ?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:53.894Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:15.453Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 110, "resolution_data": { @@ -56376,7 +56534,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2024-12-14 in perplexity amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:55.676Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:16.645Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 122, "resolution_data": { @@ -56395,7 +56553,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the most commonly voiced criticisms against cryonics is the argument that current cryonics practices don't preserve enough information to make resuscitated possible ([Hendricks 2015](https://www.technologyreview.com/s/541311/the-false-science-of-cryonics/)). Cryonics organisations [disagree](https://alcor.org/sciencefaq.htm#brain).\nTo shed more light on the question, it is thus asked:\nWhat will the earliest preservation date of any cryonics patient resuscitated or emulated before 2200 be?\nResolution\n--- \nThis question resolves as the earliest cryopreservation date of any cryonics patient to have been resuscitated or emulated before 2200.\n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguous if no cryonics patient is successfully resuscitated or emulated before December 1st, 2200.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, we define a cryonics patient as a person who has cryopreserved for at least 1 year.\n--- \nFor the purpose of this question, emulation is defined by the success criteria of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2813/when-will-the-first-whole-human-brain-be-successfully-emulated/).\n--- \nTo be successfully resuscitated, the patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. Should the successful revival be [startlingly obvious](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/#comment-14354) (to be judged by the metaculus community at large), these conditions need not be fulfilled.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:41:57.918Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:19.444Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { @@ -56414,7 +56572,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nSolar Cycle 25 is predicted to begin sometime before the end of 2020. The beginning of the solar cycle occurs during the solar minimum, which is characterized by low activity and few sunspots. \nA variety of observations indicate that during solar minima, the Sun experiences long-lived coronal holes, which are “vast regions in the Sun’s atmosphere where the Sun’s magnetic field opens up and allows streams of solar particles to escape the sun as the fast solar wind.” Solar wind emanating from coronal holes can cause space weather effects around Earth as the wind interacts with Earth’s magnetic field. While the typical energy density of the solar wind is substantially less than that of atmospheric winds on earth, its effects are manifested by auroral displays near Earth’s poles where the magnetic field is weakest. \nDuring solar minimum, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites), which can lead to an increased amount of “space junk” in Earth’s atmosphere and higher collision rates for satellites in orbit. The period surrounding solar minimum is also associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication.\nWhen will Solar Cycle 25’s minima occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum and the date (month) of its occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:00.116Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:20.786Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -56433,7 +56591,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [the NIH](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/Cloning-Fact-Sheet),\nDespite several highly publicized claims, human cloning still appears to be fiction. There currently is no solid scientific evidence that anyone has cloned human embryos. [...]\nFrom a technical perspective, cloning humans and other primates is more difficult than in other mammals. One reason is that two proteins essential to cell division, known as spindle proteins, are located very close to the chromosomes in primate eggs. Consequently, removal of the egg's nucleus to make room for the donor nucleus also removes the spindle proteins, interfering with cell division. In other mammals, such as cats, rabbits and mice, the two spindle proteins are spread throughout the egg. So, removal of the egg's nucleus does not result in loss of spindle proteins. In addition, some dyes and the ultraviolet light used to remove the egg's nucleus can damage the primate cell and prevent it from growing.\nA prominent historical figure is defined as someone who is,\n--- \nCurrently considered dead according to credible media\n--- \nHas an English Wikipedia entry that has existed for at least 15 years before the birth of the human clone\nWhen will the first clone of a prominent historical figure be born?\nThis question will resolve on the date of birth of any clone of a prominent historical figure, as determined by credible media.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:03.667Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:22.081Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { @@ -56463,7 +56621,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:05.752Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:23.377Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -56493,9 +56651,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:07.662Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:24.779Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 263, + "numforecasts": 264, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -56512,7 +56670,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Due to a resurgence in the number of cases of COVID-19, from 14th September 2020 it will be against the law to meet people you do not live with in a group larger than six in England. [This government webpage](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing/coronavirus-covid-19-meeting-with-others-safely-social-distancing#seeing-friends-and-family) gives more details, including certain exceptions such as for work or education.\nThe Health Secretary has said that this rule won't be in place for [\"any longer than we have to\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54102872). But how long will this be?\nThat is, when will it be legal to meet socially in groups larger than six in England?\nThe question will resolve when it is legal for any seven people to meet for any purpose in England.\nThe question is about the law, not about any unenforceable government guidance. It resolves even if seven-person meetings are allowed conditional on the participants following other restrictions, such as meeting outside or wearing face coverings. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:09.698Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:26.745Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 323, "resolution_data": { @@ -56531,9 +56689,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [100m final](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres_at_the_Olympics) is one of the most popular and high profile events at the Olympics. \n[The Men's 100m time has been progressing over time](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) and a number of reasons have been suggested (better training, better equipment (eg track surface, shoes), wider athlete pool). The retirement of Usain Bolt has left sprinting short of it's fastest star, but there are no shortage of fast athletes likely to contest the final.\nIt remains to be seen what the impact of COVID will be on sprinting, but judging from distance running it appears likely that the times will be extremely fast.\nWhat will the Mens winning 100m time in the 2020 Olympic Final be?\nThe official winning time of the Men's 100m final for the 2020 Olympics. If the 2020 Olympics do not take place (ie [if this question resolves negative](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5555/rescheduled-2020-olympics/)) then this question will resolve ambiguous\nRelated Questions:\n[Women's 100m Final](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5861/2020-olympic-womens-100m-final/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:11.508Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:27.961Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 65, + "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-11T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -56544,36 +56702,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:13.869Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 209, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will it once again be possible to travel between London and New York City by any commercially available means in under three hours by 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1642/will-it-once-again-be-possible-to-travel-between-london-and-new-york-city-by-any-commercially-available-means-in-under-three-hours-by-2030/", @@ -56591,9 +56719,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:15.848Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:29.182Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 282, + "numforecasts": 283, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -56604,13 +56732,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6179/second-us-civil-war-before-2031/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Context\n\nAlthough democracies are generally unlikely to enter civil war (see this [list of civil wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_civil_wars#1945_to_2020) for a rough overview), the United States faces a particularly unusual situation at the moment. The current [COVID-19 pandemic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic), [social protests](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/07/03/us/george-floyd-protests-crowd-size.html), effects of [social media platform manipulation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1PGm8LslEb4), and the [presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election) all have the potential to disrupt social cohesion and garner negative attitudes toward the government. See this related question for a shorter timeframe: [Will the USA enter a second civil war before July 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4764/will-the-usa-enter-a-second-civil-war-before-july-2021/)\nThis question asks, Will the United States of America (USA) enter a second civil war before 2031?\n\nResolution Criteria\n\nThis resolves positively if and only if all of the following are met before 2031:\n---The [Insurrection Act](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurrection_Act_of_1807) is invoked. \n---While the Insurrection Act is invoked, there are at least 500 deaths in a 6 month period as a result of armed conflicts between US residents and a branch of the US military, national guard, or in conflicts between/among such branches. \n---All of these deaths occur in any US state (including DC). \nThis will retroactively close 14 days prior to the 500th death (as closely as metaculus admins can determine). Credible sources will be used to determine the total number of deaths and when and where they occurred.\nAny conflicts between the US military and the armed forces of another country will be excluded from consideration in this question. Conflicts between the US military and US residents, possibly supported by other nations with weapons or resources, will be included.\nConflicts between civilians and local police will not be included, unless there are active armed forces in the region providing mutual support.\nDeaths are calculated among all of the states (and Washington, DC) in the United States. New states which are admitted shall be included, states which secede or are removed, will not be included. Suicides do not count towards the death count. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.04, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.96, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:30.517Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 209, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2021-01-19T05:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2031-01-01T06:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2031-01-02T06:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the US achieve racial unemployment parity between racial groups labeled 'black' and 'white' by the Bureau of Labor Statistics?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6064/us-black-white-unemployment-parity/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe gap in unemployment between black and white workers between the ages 35-44 stood at 2 percentage points in 2019, with black workers observing unemployment levels almost twice as high as those of their white peers. \nIn 2020, this historical trend between workers of all ages intensified.\n“The [Black unemployment rate](https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2020/09/28/490702/persistent-black-white-unemployment-gap-built-labor-market/) reached a high of 16.6 percent in May 2020, and as of August 2020, it was still at 13.2 percent. Conversely, the white unemployment rate fell to 6.9 percent in August 2020 from a high of 12.8 percent in April, or nearly half of the Black unemployment rate. The ratio of Black-to-white unemployment went from 1.27 in April 2020 to 1.97 in August 2020—that is, the Black unemployment rate is currently double the white unemployment rate.”\nIn case of the 2007 recession, the employment impacts in the US were felt most strongly black and Hispanic workers, men, youth, and low-education workers ([Hoynes et al., 2012](https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/jep.26.3.27)). These dramatic differences in the cyclicality across demographic groups are generally found to be stable across throughout recessionary periods. \nMoreover, some evidence suggests that labour market discrimination is counter-cyclical (such as [Johnston and Lordan (2015)](http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/63622/1/Lordan_Racial%20Prejudice.pdf) and [Jayadev and Johnson, (2017)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12114-017-9264-y)).\nWhen will the US achieve racial unemployment parity?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria can be obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their data analysis on the employment status of Americans by age, sex, and race. The table should be available from [here](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) in the annual tables for employment by detailed demographic group (age, sex, and race).\nWhen unemployment levels for men between the ages of 35-44 in both the ‘White’ and ‘Black’ categories are equal, or 'Black' unemployment is lower than 'White' unemployment.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:17.830Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:31.695Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -56629,7 +56787,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They published a paper on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\"), and made [the raw data available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). Bourget and Chalmers are now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020 and published shortly thereafter, just over ten years after the original survey.\nBackground\nThe many-worlds interpretation is an interpretation of quantum mechanics that asserts that every time a quantum experiment with different possible outcomes is performed, all outcomes are obtained, each in a different world, even if we are only aware of the world with the outcome we have seen [(Vaidman, 2014)](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/qm-manyworlds/). Hence, the Many-Worlds Interpretation of quantum mechanics holds that there are many worlds which exist in parallel at the same space and time as our own.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Survey, what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents that \"accept\" or \"lean toward\" the answer \"many-worlds\" on the \"Quantum mechanics\" question. (For the full question, including all answers available to survey respondents, see [here](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms) (scroll down to 'Additional main questions').) This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Survey.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:21.842Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:34.112Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -56659,9 +56817,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:23.872Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:35.364Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 87, + "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -56678,7 +56836,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Chickens are generally either bred for egg-laying performance, or an ability to fatten and grow quickly. While both males and females are fattened in broiler production, there is currently no economically worthwhile use of the male offspring of egg-laying chickens, as these cannot lay eggs. Therefore, day-old male chicks are destroyed in the layer hatchery [(Krautwald-Junghanns et al., 2017)](https://academic.oup.com/ps/article/97/3/749/4780252). Approximately 370 million chicks in North America are culled annually [(Gali et al. 2017a)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00216-016-0116-6).\nAs the red blood cells of birds possess a nucleus, they also carry the genetic sex information. Using spectroscopic techniques, the sex of an egg can be determined three days after it has been fertilised [(Galli et al, 2017b)](https://www.degruyter.com/downloadpdf/j/cdbme.2017.3.issue-2/cdbme-2017-0027/cdbme-2017-0027.pdf). In egg sexing of a chick’s sex while still in the egg is might reduce the number of male chicks that are killed shortly after hatching.\nThere is a substantial effort to develop in ovo technologies at a low enough price to be commercially viable, with companies [reportedly developing the relevant technologies in Germany, Israel, Canada and the Netherlands](https://www.poultryworld.net/Eggs/Articles/2018/6/Egg-sexing-close-to-market-301797E/). \nWhen will most eggs produced in the USA be sexed before hatching??\nResolution\nThis resolves as the estimated date when U.S.-based hatcheries that produce at least 50% of the total number of eggs produced in the U.S. eggs that year successfully sex their hen flock replacement eggs, in ovo.\nFor the purposes of this question, successful sexing occurs if: \n1-- \ntechniques are used that correctly identify the sex in a majority of cases, and\n2-- \nat least a majority of those identified to be male are destroyed before hatching.\nEstimates of when this threshold is reached should originate from credible independent sources, preferably by nonprofit research organisations (e.g. the Good Food Institute) or other nonprofit organisations, or governmental organisations, such as the USDA, or FAO, or independent researchers. In case no estimates of when this occurred can be found, an admin should contact the aforementioned types credible independent sources and request these for their relevant staff for credible estimates. In case of multiple estimates, an admin may decide to resolve on the basis of the median. In case no estimates can be sourced, the question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:25.762Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:36.584Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 90, "resolution_data": { @@ -56708,7 +56866,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:27.609Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:38.745Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 278, "resolution_data": { @@ -56738,7 +56896,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:32.112Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:39.934Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 81, "resolution_data": { @@ -56768,7 +56926,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:34.545Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:41.172Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 223, "resolution_data": { @@ -56787,7 +56945,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In tracking progress on climate change, a key milestone would be when the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilises. An indicator of this would be the first time after the opening of this question that the seasonally adjusted concentration dips below the same metric 365 days prior.\nThis question can be settled on the daily trend values given at the [NOAA website](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_data.html) (Ed Dlugokencky and Pieter Tans, NOAA/ESRL). If this source becomes available, this question can resolve according to another source of similar quality, for example the [Scripps CO Program](https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/) or [NASA](https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:36.232Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:43.463Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { @@ -56806,7 +56964,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Last Fall, [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) launched a one-day trial of a plant-based chicken product in [a single Kentucky Fried Chicken location near Atlanta](https://goo.gl/maps/PQctdF7pQBFAGXKx6). The launch attracted [out-the-door lines, and sold out within hours](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/28/business/kfc-beyond-meat-vegan-chicken.html?smtyp=cur&smid=tw-nytimes). The one-day trial has now prompted Beyond Meat to partner with KFC for a limited rollout of the Beyond Chicken product to [roughly 100 KFC locations in Tennessee, Kentucky, and North Carolina](https://www.beyondmeat.com/whats-new/beyond-fried-chicken-flies-into-kfc-in-nashville-and-charlotte/?fbclid=IwAR2HZfTWLHDUb82y0xe5UZ1FJW5xmB9Gn9QAU_IyHDivbzHqvSuAwqztHqc).\nA commercially-viable, plant-based chicken substitute (of quality comparable to the existing offerings of [Beyond Meat](https://www.beyondmeat.com/) and [Impossible Foods](https://impossiblefoods.com/)) that began to [pull market share from farmed chickens](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3325/how-many-billions-of-poultry-will-be-slaughtered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2030-according-to-fao-estimates/) would be [a substantial victory for animal welfare](https://www.onestepforanimals.org/what.html). From Beyond Meat's perspective, moving from restaurant-partnerships to grocery retail is [a logical next step](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores).\nWhen will Beyond Chicken be available from a Grocery Store?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"available from a grocery store\" means that an ordinary consumer (i.e. not a restauranteur) can purchase a product containing Beyond Chicken from an ordinary grocery store, packaged for retail consumption.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:38.186Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:44.656Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 126, "resolution_data": { @@ -56836,9 +56994,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:43.003Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:48.598Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 117, + "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-01-14T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -56866,7 +57024,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:44.803Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:49.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -56885,7 +57043,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "According to [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm), over 1.881M of tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) of renewable energy was produced in 2016. Renewable energy production saw impressive growth over the 70's during which total renewable energy produced grew at an average rate of 2.4%. This slowed down in the 90's to around 1.46%, but has picked up recently. Over the 2014 to 2018 period, more renewable energy capacity has been installed than new fossil fuel and nuclear capacity combined [(REN 21, 2019)](http://www.ren21.net/gsr-2019/). Of the new renewable energy capacity installed in 2018, 55 percent (about 100 GW) was solar PV; wind power had 28 percent, and hydropower 11 percent (ibid.). This suggests that the future of the world depends on solar continuing to boom.\nOver the 2014 to 2016 period (exclusive), total renewable energy produced grew at an impressive 2.4% year-over-year, on average.\nWhat will the average growth rate be, of total renewable energy produced worldwide over the 2020 to 2022 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the geometric mean of year-over-year growth in total renewable energy produced worldwide in % for the periods 2019 to 2020, 2020 to 2021, and 2021 to 2022, as calculated from [OECD estimates](https://data.oecd.org/energy/renewable-energy.htm).\nFor the purpose of this question, by average growth rate, we mean the compound annual growth rate, i.e. , where is the total total renewable energy produced worldwide in time .\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10Y5ejPYoF_XDILDhLiFT4xU8TKVSouy2lLD4qWrbXl8/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it. If you make useful additions to the dataset, please share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:46.609Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:51.003Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 164, "resolution_data": { @@ -56915,7 +57073,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:48.383Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:52.645Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { @@ -56934,7 +57092,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Transplantation of tissue — including organs — from one human (or nonhuman) to another is an amazing advance in medicine that has now saved many lives. Complex organs including the heart and liver are now routinely transplanted, and in many cases even quite complex severed nerves can be reattached.\nMuch more audacious is the possibility of transplanting a human head. (Or should it be considered a full-body transplant?) The difficulties are obviously daunting: not just the spine, but major arteries, throat, etc., must all be reattached while keeping the brain alive.\nRecently, the media has been abuzz with news that Sergio Canavero and his colleague Xiaoping Ren of China plan to transplant a human head from a living person onto a donor cadaver. The two surgeons — who portray themselves as pioneers defying a stodgy medical establishment but are considered reckless renegades by many peers — say the head donor will be someone with a degenerative disease, whose body is wasting away while his or her mind remains active.\nThe body donor, meanwhile, will likely be a someone who died of severe head trauma but whose body was left unscathed. The researchers claim to have been perfecting the technique on mice, a dog, a monkey, and, recently, a human cadaver. Originally, they predicted a fall 2017 transplant but now [just say it is “imminent.”](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2017/11/17/italian-doctor-says-worlds-first-human-head-transplant-imminent/847288001/).\nWhen will will a human head transplant operation be performed\nResolution is positive regardless of the survival of the patient after the operation. Positive resolution requires the patient who provides the donor head to be alive right before the procedure: the patient providing the donor head should not be declared legally dead 48 hours or more before the transplant occurs. Brain-only transplants do not count towards positive resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:50.240Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:53.809Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { @@ -56964,7 +57122,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:52.148Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:55.318Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { @@ -56983,7 +57141,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is the fifth question in [a series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--fermi-paradox) estimating input parameters for Drake's equation, inspired by a [recent paper,](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf) on the Fermi paradox.\nThe first question in the series, with more explanation, [is here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1337)\nThe model in question uses probability distributions over seven input parameters.\nIn this case we will be addressing the fifth parameter in Drake's Equation, . It is the fraction of life-bearing planets on which intelligent life emerges. This is pretty ill-defined but for our purposes we shall define intelligent life as a type capable of (a) symbolic representation and communication of a description of actions and objects, i.e. language, and (b) use of tools. Under this definition on Earth Humans would count as well as probably several type of nonhuman primates, many cetaceans, and some types of birds.\nThere being no obvious source of a hard lower-limit on this parameter we set that to , but with an open border. We'll count multiple intelligent species on a planet as a single one.\nThe resolution to this question will be the scientific consensus 100 years from now, regardless of any remaining uncertainty.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:54.231Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:56.813Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { @@ -57013,7 +57171,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:56.307Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:57.992Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 351, "resolution_data": { @@ -57043,7 +57201,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:42:58.140Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:36:59.876Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 256, "resolution_data": { @@ -57062,7 +57220,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities in the field of global development that have the greatest impact per marginal donation. Towards this end, they try to quantify the effects of different interventions by estimating a \"cost per life saved\" metric to compare them on.\nWhile they warn against taking [these cost-effectiveness estimates literally](https://blog.givewell.org/2017/06/01/how-givewell-uses-cost-effectiveness-analyses/), these estimates do give a guideline to which interventions are most effective and a rough idea of how cost-effective we should expect interventions to be.\nOver time, these estimates change; they might update upwards if all the most cost-effective interventions are fully funded by philanthropists or if they overestimated the cost-effectiveness of the top intervention, and they might update downwards if more promising interventions are found or if an existing intervention has more benefits than previously expected.\nHow much will it cost to get an outcome as good as averting the death of an individual under 5, according to GiveWell's guess, at the end of 2031, in 2015 USD?\nIf available, the question will be resolved by taking the lowest value for the field \"cost per outcome as good as: averting the death of an individual under 5\" in the latest publicly available version of [Givewell's cost-effectiveness analysis spreadsheet](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models) using the default values. These values are given after [accounting for expected leverage and funging](https://blog.givewell.org/2018/02/13/revisiting-leverage/).\nIf GiveWell no longer reports a cost per life-saved equivalent by 2031, a best effort should be made to derive an effective cost per life-saved equivalent by applying GiveWell's [2019 methodology](https://www.givewell.org/how-we-work/our-criteria/cost-effectiveness/cost-effectiveness-models/changelog-2019) to its 2031 cost-effectiveness model. If there is no unambiguous way to do this, the question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell substantially changes how it picks top charities such that they are not comparable to the 2019 picks—for example, if GiveWell chooses existential risk organzations as its top charities—the question resolves as ambiguous. \nA similar question for 2021 was asked [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2776/how-much-will-givewell-guess-it-will-cost-to-get-an-outcome-as-good-as-saving-a-life-at-the-end-of-2021/), it is still open as of this question's writing.\nSimilar questions asked for previous years would have resolved at (all in 2015 prices):\n---2016: $890 \n---2017: $823 \n---2018: $617 \n---2019: $592 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:02.282Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:01.063Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -57081,7 +57239,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2022-01-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2022-01-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2022-01-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:04.057Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:02.228Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -57100,7 +57258,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of the time of writing this question, the two major providers of cryopreservation in the US are [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/), with [181 patients and 1,317 members](https://www.alcor.org/library/alcor-membership-statistics/), and the [Cryonics Institute](https://www.cryonics.org/), with [177 patients and 1,859 members](https://www.cryonics.org/ci-landing/member-statistics/). \nThese organisations might differ in the chance of reviving their patients if the initial quality of cryopreservations is higher in one or the other, or if one organisation is likely to last longer than the other, or if when revival becomes possible one is better able to arrange this than the other.\nWhat is the likelihood ratio of being revived before 2200 if one was preserved by Alcor vs. the Cryonics Institute while both were active?\nIf no patients from Alcor or the Cryonics Insitute are revived, this resolves ambiguously.\nIf only patients from Alcor are revived, this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\nOtherwise, this resolves at the value (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at Alcor while both organisations were active) / (% of people revived, among those cryopreserved at the Cryonics Institute while both organisations were active) at the start of 2200.\n\"Active\" means that the organisation is currently officially offering cryopreservation to its members and storing them at its own facilities.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:05.886Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:04.756Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 31, "resolution_data": { @@ -57130,7 +57288,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:07.963Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:05.937Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { @@ -57149,7 +57307,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on choosing immortality?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on:\nImmortality would you choose it?\nThis question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:09.738Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:07.158Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 109, "resolution_data": { @@ -57179,7 +57337,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:11.962Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:08.724Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 243, "resolution_data": { @@ -57200,18 +57358,18 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.92, + "probability": 0.94, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:13.832Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:09.968Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 352, + "numforecasts": 353, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-07T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -57239,7 +57397,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:15.779Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:11.281Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -57258,7 +57416,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nReinforcement learning (RL) is a subfield of machine learning, based on rewarding desired behaviours and/or punishing undesired ones of an agent interacting with its environment [(Sutton and Barto, 2014)](https://web.stanford.edu/class/psych209/Readings/SuttonBartoIPRLBook2ndEd.pdf).\nHow many Reinforcement Learning e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the total number of Reinforcement Learning e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2027-01-01 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Reinforcement Learning e-prints are those published under Computer Science that contain any of the following key words in \"all fields\":\n\"Reinforcement Learning\", \"DQN\", \"Q-learning\", \"Deep Q Network\", \"Temporal difference learning\", \"Sarsa\", \"TD learning\" \"Proximal policy optimization\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22Reinforcement+Learning%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22DQN%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22Q-learning%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22Temporal+difference+learning%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22Deep+Q+Network%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22Sarsa%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22TD+learning%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22Proximal+policy+optimization%22&terms-7-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---779 for the calendar year 2017 \n---1,404 for the calendar year 2018 \n---2,287 for the calendar year 2019 \n---3,046 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:17.680Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:12.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -57277,9 +57435,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Climate sensitivity is arguably [the most important number in climate change](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-most-important-number-in-climate-change/). It is the global-mean surface temperature change associated with a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration over its preindustrial value [(Vial et al. 2013)](http://www.lmd.jussieu.fr/~jldufres/publi/Smi/Vial.Dufresne.ea-cdyn-revised.pdf). The standard metric for climate sensitivity is the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) given as the change in temperature at equilibrium for a doubling of CO2, neglecting long-term feedbacks associated with vegetation changes, carbon feedbacks and ice sheet dynamics [(Skeie et al. 2017)](https://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/9/879/2018/).\nThe first attempt to calculate climate sensitivity was in 1896, by the Swedish scientist, Svante Arrhenius. He found that CO2 doubling should increase the Earth's mean temperature by 5–6°C [(Lapenis, 2006)](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/98EO00206). Since then, hundreds of estimates have been made based on climate modelling and/or estimates based on physical evidence, such as climate changes in the distant past [(Knutti et al., 2017)](https://www.nature.com/articles/ngeo3017?draft=marketing). \n[Some have argued](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888) that from the 1980s onward, the uncertainty in climate projections has not narrowed appreciably, despite tremendous increases in computing power, in observations, and in the number of scientists studying the problem. For instance, In 2013, the IPCC widened the range of its estimate of climate sensitivity once again, opting for the \"likely\" range of 1.5°C to 4.5°C (66% confidence interval) [(Freeman et al., 2015)](https://www.nber.org/papers/w20900.pdf). The resolution of this dilemma has important implications for climate research and policy.\nThe ‘likely’ range (i.e. its 66% confidence interval) of ECS as stated in the IPCC's 5th annual report [(IPCC, 2014)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/05/SYR_AR5_FINAL_full_wcover.pdf) is 1.5–4.5 degrees Celsius. This is the same range that was givien in the IPCC's first report [(IPCC, 1990)](https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/03/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf).\n[A 2018 article](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450) aims to revise the estimate of climate sensitivity, and reduces the range of possible end-of-century outcomes by more than half. It finds a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. The IPCC's sixth report is currently [scheduled for publication in 2022](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/), will it revise its upper bound of 4.5 degrees Celsius of its ‘likely’ range?\nWhat will the upper limit in the IPCC's assessed 'likely' range of equilibrium climate sensitivity, in its sixth Assessment Report?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the upper of the 66% confidence limits, i.e. the upper number of its 'likely' range, of the IPCC's estimate for climate sensitivity in its Sixth Assessment Report. The question resolves ambiguous if the sixth Assessment Report is not published before the end of 2024, or if it does not issue the estimate in its report. \nIn case of format changes to the IPCC's representation of their estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity (i.e. different confidence interval is presented), an admin shall examine the relevant technical publication(s) produced by the IPCC, or those that principally inform the IPCC estimates for climate sensitivity, to work out the associated 66% confidence interval from their cumulative probability function (CDF). In case different confidence intervals are provided and the relevant CDF is not disclosed, we shall assume that the CDF is equivalent to the analytic form found in [Roe and Baker (2007)](https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/3ddd/338b0f9ddb9825249e467f54b6be484b1845.pdf?_ga=2.218536731.367033418.1567362234-1835406592.1565352888), so that the 66% confidence interval can be worked out by an admin.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:19.635Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:13.682Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 97, + "numforecasts": 100, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -57307,7 +57465,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:21.560Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:15.610Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 181, "resolution_data": { @@ -57337,9 +57495,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:24.960Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:17.225Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 140, + "numforecasts": 141, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -57367,7 +57525,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:26.778Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:18.409Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 66, "resolution_data": { @@ -57386,7 +57544,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Large Mammal BPF Prize](https://www.brainpreservation.org/large-mammal-announcement/) was won in 2018 by a technique called Aldehyde-Stabilized Cryopreservation. ASC uses glutaraldehyde to crosslink the brain's proteins in place; this removes the possibility of restoration of biological function, but protects the tissue from decay due to autolysis or putrefaction. Glutaraldehyde fixation is currently used in neuroscience to prepare brain tissue for electron microscopic and immunofluorescent examination.\nAlcor, a major cryonics provider, is skeptical of fixatives and does not currently offer ASC. [Ralph Merkle, writing for Alcor, writes](https://alcor.org/Library/html/does-cryonics-offer-false-hope.html):\nRather obviously, if you want to cryopreserve someone you’d rather not perfuse them with glutaraldehyde. It’s a fixative. On the other hand, if you don’t use glutaraldehyde, then you’re going to get dehydration and shrinkage, which means you won’t get the pretty pictures that neuroscientists like.\nSo, what’s your preference? Better pictures, or better biological viability? The neuroscientists want the pictures. Alcor has traditionally worked to achieve better biological viability.\n[...] The cryobiological experts who advise Alcor favor the use of Alcor’s current protocol (or we would have changed it).\nThe Brain Preservation Foundation, which awarded the $80,000 prize for ASC, is more hopeful, claiming that these better pictures make the brain more suitable for eventual resurrection via scanning and uploading.\nWhat will the value (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved using fixatives, who are revived) / (% of people cryopreserved while fixatives are available, who are cryopreserved without using fixatives, who are revived) be at the start of 2200?\nThis counts only the people who are cryopreserved while fixatives are available, so that the question measures only the effect from using fixatives, and not general improvement in cryonics between 1967 and whenever fixatives become available, and from later techniques which would supersede fixatives. \n\"Available\" means that a cryonics organisation officially offers cryopreservation using fixatives to its members.\n\"Revival\" means that the person would be able to meet the standard described in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3382/what-will-the-earliest-preservation-date-of-any-resuscitated-cryonics-patient-be/); either through conducting that specific test, or by some measurement that is equivalent such as official statistics on the health of revived patients.\nIf nobody is revived from cryopreservation before 2200, or nobody is cryopreserved using fixatives, then this resolves ambiguously. If the only people revived are those who were preserved using fixatives, then this resolves above the upper end of the scale.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:28.536Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:19.565Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -57405,7 +57563,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based foods was worth almost $4.5 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nDollar sales of plant-based alternative foods grew 11% in the past year and 31% over the past two years. By contrast, total U.S. retail food dollar sales grew just 2% over the past year and 4% over the past two years.\nCurrently, plant-based milk is the most developed of all plant-based categories, contributing roughly $1.9bn in the year ending April 2019, followed by “other plant-based dairy” and then plant-based meat. The least developed category, but one of the fastest growing, is plant-based eggs.\nHow much will the total U.S. plant-based alternative food market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based foods, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: milk, meat, meals, ice cream and frozen novelty, yoghurt, creamer, butter, cheese, tofu and tempeh, ready-to-drink beverages, condiments, dressings, and mayo, dairy spreads, dips, sour cream, and sauces, eggs.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS data is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $3.4b in 2017, $4b in 2018, $4.5b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that this estimation approach is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:30.337Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:20.782Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 155, "resolution_data": { @@ -57435,7 +57593,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:31.995Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:22.032Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 43, "resolution_data": { @@ -57454,7 +57612,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Global Animal Partnership](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/) (GAP), a nonprofit which seeks to promote the welfare of farmed animals, has an animal welfare rating program for assessing the welfare of animals on-farm, during transport and at slaughter.\nThis basic part of GAP's standards for broiler chickens is summarized with the slogan: “no cages, no crates, no crowding”, and requires the following:\nChickens are typically housed indoors and must meet a maximum stocking density of 6.0 lbs/ft2 by 1 July 2020. Producers are required to manage the environment to maintain litter, air quality and provide chickens with environmental enrichment. Environmental enrichments are materials that are provided to chickens to add complexity to their environment and encourage the expression of natural behavior (such as pecking, scratching, exploration and play behavior).[[1](https://globalanimalpartnership.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/GAP-Standard-for-Meat-Chickens-v3.1-20180403.pdf)]\nAs of writing this question, [239 companies worldwide have pledged to adhere to the basic part of GAP standards for broiler chickens](http://(https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler)). \nHow many companies worldwide will pledge to adhere to the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat, within a timeline ending at latest in 2030, on December 1st, 2023?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of companies worldwide that have been reported to have pledged to maintain a supply chain consistent with the current basic GAP standards for broiler chickens raised for meat within a timeline ending in or before any date in 2030, on December 1st, 2023. Resolution will be based on [the data reported by Chicken Watch](https://chickenwatch.org/progress-tracker/?filterM=Broiler). The current number can be found by entering the query issue \"Broiler\", with the timeline ending in the year 2030.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:33.798Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:23.198Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 126, "resolution_data": { @@ -57473,7 +57631,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "An important input to technological development is economic productivity. From Nick Bostrom's [The Future of Humanity](https://www.nickbostrom.com/papers/future.pdf) (2005), \nOne could argue that to get an index of the overall pace of technological development, we should look not at a hand-picked portfolio of hot technologies; but instead at economic growth, which implicitly incorporates all productivity-enhancing technological innovations, weighted by their economic significance.\nFurthermore, many proposed AI takeoff scenarios are framed in terms of economic growth and development (See for instance [Baumann](http://s-risks.org/a-framework-for-thinking-about-ai-timescales/) and [Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf)). Economic investment has also been pointed to as a driving factor of the recent [AI and compute trend](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/).\nIf Paul Christiano's [slow AI takeoff view](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/) is right, then economic growth will speed up long before we have advanced AI technology. That's because pre-AGI technology can potentially automate labor without strictly being smarter than all humans. This would imply that upon the arrival of AGI, the world economy will be much larger than it would be if you naively extrapolated from past economic growth. \nFor example, suppose you thought that AGI was 20 years away, but that 10 years before AGI, economic growth would be double the current rate, triple 5 years before, quadruple 2 years before etc. Then although the GDP's current instantaneous growth rate implies that GDP should be about twice as much when AGI arrives, it will actually be much higher due to the pre-AGI-induced acceleration. But exactly how much larger will it be?\nThe relevant year when AGI is deployed is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). A real GDP estimate for that year from a reliable source will determine the resolution for this question.\nReal world GDP [was estimated](https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/) to be about 87 trillion dollars in 2019.\nETA: The question resolves as real GDP in 2020 USD.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:35.573Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:24.392Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -57492,7 +57650,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related questions: \n---[When will an AI be able to explore all the rooms on the first level of Montezuma’s revenge in less than or equal to 50 million frames of training?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/) \n---[What will the highest score be, on Atari 2600 Montezuma's Revenge, by any ML model that is un-augmented with domain knowledge on 2022-01-14?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6230/sota-montezumas-revenge-2022-01-14/) \n---[When will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) \nIn 2012, researchers proposed an [The Arcade Learning Environment](https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.4708) consisting of Atari 2600 games. Out of these games one stood out as the most challenging for deep learning models - [Montezuma's Revenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montezuma%27s_Revenge_(video_game)).\nAs of 2021 Go-Explore [(Ecoffet et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.12919v2.pdf) has achieved the highest score at 43 791 without augmentation with domain knowledge. However, it requires billions of frames or years of game play to achieve that performance.\nI attempted to calibrate this question by playing the game for 15 min. In this time I managed to score a maximum of 6700 points. [You can test the game on your own here.](https://www.retrogames.cz/play_124-Atari2600.php?language=EN)\nAn AI system which is able to rapidly learn in dynamic environments could have a great impact on the world's economy.\nWhen will AI be able to learn to play Montezuma's Revenge in less than 30 min?\nThis question will resolve when a reputable source reports that an AI system managed to score strictly more than 6000 points at least once within the first 30 minutes of the game play (no more than 108 000 frames). The system must have no previous direct access to the Montezuma's Revenge game, but it may be pretrained in other ways.\nWith regard to pretraining, the question allows:\n---unlimited training on anything that is unrelated to the game \n---unlimited training on all other Atari games \n---having videos and/or screenshots of the Montezuma's Revenge game in the training set as long as they unambiguously consist of less than 3% of the training set \n---access to any text resources related to the game including tutorials etc. \nBesides that, the AI system must not make use any aspects of the game that are not available to a human player, especially direct game memory access is not allowed even for computing rewards. Exploiting deterministic nature of the game and superhuman reflexes is allowed as long as the AI system fits within the time limit.\nIn general an AI system that was in any way specifically engineered to play the Montezuma's Revenge must not count. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:37.331Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:26.228Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -57511,7 +57669,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\nThe PASCAL-Context dataset is a challenging scene parsing dataset that contains 59 semantic classes and 1 background class [(Mottaghi et al., 2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf). The training set and test set consist of 4, 998 and 5,105 images respectively.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on PASCAL-Context is ResNeSt-269 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 58.92 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt/issues/42)). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-pascal-context), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation of PASCAL-Context be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [PASCAL-Context (2014)](https://www.cs.toronto.edu/~urtasun/publications/mottaghi_et_al_cvpr14.pdf) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the PASCAL-Context training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the PASCAL-Context test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:39.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:27.596Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 175, "resolution_data": { @@ -57530,7 +57688,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/) is a free online repository of academic papers and pre-prints (ie. those papers which have not been submitted to a journal or conference for peer review).\nFrom its humble beginnings, there are now a huge number of papers submitted every month, with the 10,000 mark being breached in October 2016, and the 12,000 mark in May 2017. \nThis question asks in which month will there first be >=20,000 papers submitted, as adjudicated by [the link here](https://arxiv.org/stats/monthly_submissions).\nShould the above link disappear or the methodology change substantially (such that the above dates change) then resolution is ambiguous.\nIf the resolution must occur on a particular day rather than just a month, then it occurs on the first day of the winning month.\nIf this fails to resolve prior to Jan 1st, 2035, it resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2035\"\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:44.118Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:30.125Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 109, "resolution_data": { @@ -57560,7 +57718,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:45.878Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:31.331Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { @@ -57590,7 +57748,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:47.885Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:32.744Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 141, "resolution_data": { @@ -57620,7 +57778,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:49.943Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:34.257Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 167, "resolution_data": { @@ -57650,7 +57808,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:51.908Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:35.442Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -57680,7 +57838,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:53.969Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:36.628Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 240, "resolution_data": { @@ -57699,7 +57857,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The highest rated chess player as of May 2020 is [Magnus Carlsen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnus_Carlsen), who currently possesses a FIDE rating of [2863](https://ratings.fide.com/card.phtml?event=1503014). His peak rating (and the highest rating of all time) was 2882, achieved back in May 2014. An overview of top-ranked chess grandmasters sorted by their peak rating can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_peak_FIDE_rating) or [here](https://2700chess.com/records).\nWhen will a human chess player reach a peak FIDE rating of 2900 or more in classical chess?\nResolution will be based off of the official monthly FIDE rating publications. The question resolves ambiguously if FIDE ceases to be the governing body of international chess competition and/or fails to publish the relevant data for 6 months in a row.\nThe question resolves as \">2040\" if no human chess player achieves the required rating by the resolution date.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:55.735Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:37.879Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 69, "resolution_data": { @@ -57729,9 +57887,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:57.588Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:39.076Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 303, + "numforecasts": 304, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2016-12-10T23:44:49Z", "resolution": null, @@ -57748,7 +57906,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nVarious figures in AI research have noted the importance of computer hardware for AI progress ([LeCun et al., 2015](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539); [Schmidhuber, 2015](https://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/DeepLearningInNeuralNetworksOverview.JSchmidhuber2015.pdf)). Exponential improvements in the computing power available for a given price, and the development of particular technologies such as graphics processing units (GPUs), have accelerated progress in multiple AI domains ([Brundage, 2016](https://www.milesbrundage.com/uploads/2/1/6/8/21681226/modelingprogressinai.pdf)). \nRecent progress in has been accompanied by the use of increasing amounts of computation. [According to OpenAI](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/), since 2012, the amount of compute used in the largest AI training runs has been increasing exponentially with a 3.5 month doubling time. This trend sustained by both the continued progress in hardware performance, and increased spending on AI experiments [(AI Impacts, 2018)](https://aiimpacts.org/interpreting-ai-compute-trends/).\nBy January 14 2022, what will be the maximum compute (measured in petaFLOPS-days), used in training in an AI experiment?\nThis question shall resolve as a credible estimate of the cost of the most compute used in a \"single AI experiment\", as estimated using the methodology outlined below. By \"single AI experiment\" we mean an effort to train a set of models running on a set of \"architectures\". The effort should be completed within a determinate amount of time (the experiment must not have an open-ended time frame). For our purposes, the publication of the principal results of the effort ends the experiment. \nBy \"architectures\" we mean the systems described in the relevant publications that define how inputs signal or percept sequences are to be mapped on various outputs. These outputs might be probability distributions over actions (in the case of a policy network), representations over expected value or reward of futures states (in the case of value networks) or descriptions of futures states.\nMethodology\nThe following methodologies that were used by OpenAI [(Amodei et al., 2018)](https://openai.com/blog/ai-and-compute/) shall produce our estimates. Method 1: \nWhen we had enough information, we directly counted the number of FLOPS (adds and multiplies) in the described architecture per training example and multiplied by the total number of forward and backward passes during training. \nIf there is not enough information to produce a reliable estimate using method 1, we shall use method 2:\nWhen we didn’t have enough information to directly count FLOPs, we looked GPU training time and total number of GPUs used and assumed a utilization efficiency (usually 0.33). For the majority of the papers we were able to use the first method, but for a significant minority we relied on the second, and we computed both whenever possible as a consistency check. In the majority of cases we also confirmed with the authors. The calculations are not intended to be precise but we aim to be correct within a factor 2-3.\nIn order to handle disputes over the correct resolution value, Metaculus admins will arrive at a preliminary compute estimate two weeks before the tournament resolution deadline and will post the estimate as a comment on this question, along with justification. Participants in the tournament will then have up to two weeks to dispute the preliminary estimate, and to offer alternative estimates. At the end of this two week period, the Metaculus admins will make a final determination as to the correct compute estimate, taking into account the arguments given during the dispute resolution period.\nThe results of any AI experiments published during the dispute resolution period will be ignored for the purpose of resolution. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:43:59.355Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:40.239Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -57767,7 +57925,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Conventional meat produced by rearing animals is associated with a range of important global problems, including greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and freshwater consumption [(McMichael et al, 2007)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17868818). Additionally, animal advocates claim that industrial agriculture practices inflict harm upon farm animals and that factory farming [might be causing substantial suffering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethics_of_eating_meat#Overview_of_the_argument_against_meat_eating).\nOverfishing causes frequent population collapses, with fishing reducing population levels by several orders of magnitude [(Le Pape et al. 2017)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5547646/). Restoring and preserving marine life is [one of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals](https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/envision2030-goal14.html). However, protecting ocean resources appears to be a low priority. [In a survey of over 2,400 leaders in government, industry, and NGOs around the world](https://www.aiddata.org/publications/listening-to-leaders-2018), restoring and preserving marine life was least likely to be ranked among the six most important SDGs, and fisheries aid has fallen by 30% over the past five years ([Blasiak and Wabnitz, 2017](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/publications/artiklar/2018-01-09-aligning-fisheries-aid-with-international-development-targets-and-goals.html)).\nSeveral clean fish companies have recently started, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/), the Canadian-based [SeaFuture](http://seafuturebio.com/) and the Singporean-based [Shiok Meats](https://shiokmeats.com/).\nAn IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean fish company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when clean fish company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean fish company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean meat company, using the terms \"clean fish\" or \"clean meat company\" producing \"fish\", where \"clean meat\" may be interchanged with \"cell-based\", \"in vitro\", \"cultivated\", or \"cultured\", and \"fish\" with any particular fish (e.g. \"clean tuna\"). Descriptions deemed to be synonymous with these criteria by an admin, or deemed to be accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English may qualify. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean salmon company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean fish related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:01.299Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:41.435Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { @@ -57797,7 +57955,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:03.266Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:42.637Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { @@ -57816,7 +57974,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Stripe, a financial-services company, [committed last year](https://stripe.com/blog/negative-emissions-commitment) to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.\nThey recently wrote up [a summary](https://stripe.com/blog/first-negative-emissions-purchases) of their first set of these purchases.\nThis miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.\nStripe has purchased 3333.3 tons of negative emissions from Project Vesta at $75 per ton. \n[Project Vesta](https://projectvesta.org/) captures CO2 by using an abundant, naturally occurring mineral called olivine. Ocean waves grind down the olivine, increasing its surface area. As the olivine breaks down, it captures atmospheric CO2 from within the ocean and stabilizes it as limestone on the seafloor. They have not publicly set a long-term price target.\nThis question asks:\nOn 2030-07-01, what price will Project Vesta charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?\nThis question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Project Vesta for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using olivine. \nIf Project Vesta has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of olivine, this question resolves as the price that company charges.\nIf neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Project Vesta has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:05.112Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:44.560Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -57835,7 +57993,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In recent years, there has been growing interest in diversifying the samples used in studies that train models to predict human traits, including disease, from genetic data. See for instance, two [recent](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41576-019-0144-0) [studies](https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(19)30231-4). This desire is primarily driven by findings that models trained on European-descent populations only generalize imperfectly to other populations, and particularly poorly to African descent populations, including African Americans.\nThe [Genome-Wide Association Study Diversity Monitor](https://gwasdiversitymonitor.com/) shows an overview of GWAS findings [broken down by ancestry of participants](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41588-020-0580-y). A GWAS (genome-wide association study) is a study that attempts to predict a phenotype from genome-wide genetic data, and not just a specific region.\nAs of writing, 1.4% were African (African American or Afro-Caribbean). The largest listed study with persons of African descent had 68.2k persons, and was [published in 2019](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31564439/).\nThis question asks: When will the first study be published that includes at least 1,000,000 persons of African descent in a GWAS?\nFor the purposes of this question:\n--- \nPublished studies mean research papers that are open to public readership, or published in a peer-reviewed journal. This includes preprints (e.g. biorXiv), and other open science documents.\n--- \nWhole exome sequencing, whole genome sequencing, and genome-wide genotyping arrays count.\n--- \nAfrican American and Afro-Caribbean and other majority African ancestry populations are counted as \"African\" though they are part non-African ancestry. The data are classified this way in studies.\n--- \nThe question will resolve as >2040 if no such study is published before December 31, 2040.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:06.929Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:45.774Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -57854,7 +58012,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [ISS year long mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISS_year_long_mission) set out to explore the health effects of long duration spaceflight. Astronaut Scott Kelly and cosmonaut Mikhail Kornienko spent 342 days in space for this mission, checking their health but they were also keeping a journal to write down how they felt. After all, there are more angles to consider than just physical health for these kind of things. \nBut this wasn't the first mission of its kind. There were three other, longer spaceflights, lasting 365, 379 and 437 days respectively. So we wonder:\nWhen will longest duration anyone has ever been in space surpass 5 years?\nWill resolve when the same person has been continuously in space for 5 years or longer.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:08.793Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:47.029Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { @@ -57884,7 +58042,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:14.594Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:49.442Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -57903,7 +58061,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Fédération Aéronautique Internationale (FAI) defines spaceflight as any flight above 100 kilometres (62 mi) above Earth's sea level.\nThe first human spaceflight occured in 12 April 1961, and as of June 17, 2018, a total of [561 people](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_space_travelers_by_name) had gone to space according to that definition. This works out to about 10 people per year since 1961, but progress has not been linear or continuous. \nAs of December 2018, the spacecraft with the highest crew capacity to have ever been sucessfully launched on a crewed mission is the now-retired [Space Shuttle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle), which could be configured to carry up to 10 astronauts at once, but [never actually carried more than eight.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STS-71) In recent years, proposals have been made for a new generation of super-heavy (and beyond) [spaceships capable of taking 100 or more humans to space in a single launch.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BFR_(rocket)) \nThis question asks: When will the 10,000th human reach space?\nResolves positively if and when credible media reports announce that a person has become the 10,000th human to reach an altitude of 100km above Earth's sea level, or if and when the same announcement is credibly made by any national or international space agency. Entering orbit is not necessary - any flight above 100km will qualify.\nPersons born above this altitude (including on space stations or on astronomical objects other than Earth) are not included for purposes of this question, unless they later complete a qualifying spaceflight. Flights made from bodies other than Earth do not count. \nPersons must be alive and conscious (e.g. not in suspended animation or some other state of unconsciousness or minimal consciousness) when they cross the 100km boundary, but need not survive their full mission beyond that point in order to be counted.\nFinally, the number refers to the number of people to have made the flight, not the total number of flights - reflights made by the same person do not add to the total.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:16.751Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:50.640Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 173, "resolution_data": { @@ -57933,7 +58091,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:18.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:51.768Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -57952,7 +58110,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasizes diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nWith access to these examples, existing language models get pretty close to human-level performance. The reigning champion, Google's T5, is able to score an astonishing 89.3 points, just below the baseline level of human performance of 89.8 points. However, it currently requires access to many examples of the tasks.\nBy contrast, humans can generally perform a new language task from only a few examples or from simple instructions – something which current NLP systems still largely struggle to do. Hence, a more challenging problem is achieving human-level performance in a few-shot regime, wherein the model has severely limited access to the training set. The model thus needs to bring to the table capabilities that were gained before any of the tasks were ever seen, and learn the relevant context of the task efficiently.\nAs of September 2020, the best performing model is OpenAI's [GPT-3](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=19) 175B parameter model, which received a score of 71.8 with access to just 32 examples. This is still 18 points away from the human performance. \nIn their paper, [Language Models are Few-Shot Learners](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.14165.pdf#page=1), the authors write:\n[...] scaling up language models greatly improves task-agnostic, few-shot performance, sometimes even reaching competitiveness with prior state-of-the-art finetuning approaches.\nHow many parameters will the first language model to reach human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE have?\nThis question will resolve as the number of parameters (in billions) of the first model to achieve an average of 89.8 on SuperGLUE with access to at most 100 examples per task. \nIf human-level few-shot performance on SuperGLUE is not reached before the end of 2029, the question resolves ambiguously.\nRelated questions: \n--- \n[When will AI achieve superhuman few-shot performance on SuperGLUE?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4932/when-will-ai-achieve-superhuman-few-shot-performance-on-superglue/)\n--- \n[How many parameters will GPT-4 have (if it is released), in billions of parameters?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4852/how-many-parameters-will-gpt-4-have-if-it-is-released-in-billions-of-parameters/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:20.671Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:53.325Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 109, "resolution_data": { @@ -57982,9 +58140,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:22.488Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:54.529Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 124, + "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-23T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -58001,7 +58159,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemantic segmentation, or image segmentation, is the task of clustering parts of an image together which belong to the same object class. It is a form of pixel-level prediction because each pixel in an image is classified according to a category [(Thoma, 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1602.06541.pdf).\n[Cityscapes](https://www.cityscapes-dataset.com/) is a large-scale dataset that contains a diverse set of stereo video sequences recorded in street scenes from 50 different cities, with high quality pixel-level annotations of 5,000 frames in addition to a larger set of 20,000 weakly annotated frames.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for semantic segmentation on Cityscapes is ResNeSt-200 [(Zhang et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.08955v1.pdf), which achieves 83.3 mIoU% (see their [detailed results here](https://github.com/zhanghang1989/ResNeSt). \nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/semantic-segmentation-on-cityscapes), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2021-06-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance (in MIoU%) achieved on the [Cityscapes (2016)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1604.01685) dataset up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the Cityscapes's training set—no extra training data may be used. The model's level of performance is to be evaluated on the Cityscape's test set.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:24.456Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:55.983Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 195, "resolution_data": { @@ -58031,7 +58189,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:26.383Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:57.193Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 261, "resolution_data": { @@ -58061,7 +58219,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:28.135Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:58.371Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -58080,7 +58238,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In April 2017, Sir Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Galactic, [expressed hope](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/04/02/sir-richard-branson-vows-have-virgin-galactic-passengers-space/) that the commercial spaceflight company would begin sending passengers to space, himself included, by the end of 2018.\nHis statement comes [nine years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scaled_Composites_White_Knight_Two) after the WhiteKnight Two powered mothership aircraft was unveiled and [three years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VSS_Enterprise_crash) after a fatal crash of a SpaceShip Two glider craft in the Mojave Desert. After multiple announced launch timelines by Branson have come and gone, Branson's mother [quipped](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7529978.stm) that \"It's always 'the end of the year.'\"\nThe company is making progress, however. The FAA granted a [commercial space launch test license](http://spacenews.com/virgin-galactic-receives-faa-license-for-spaceshiptwo-tests/) in August 2016 - but not yet a license to carry passengers. And in May 2017, SpaceShip Two [successfully tested](https://www.geekwire.com/2017/virgin-galactic-spaceshiptwo-flexes-wings/) the \"feather\" air braking position of its wings, which had been accidentally mis-deployed in the 2014 crash. Hundreds of passengers have already paid the six-figure ticket price, and are waiting for their turn to travel to space.\nWhen will SpaceShip Two's first passenger flight occur?\nThis question will resolve as positive when a credible news outlet or corporate press release reports that SpaceShip Two crossed the Karman line into space carrying at least one paying non-pilot passenger, and safely returned to the ground.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:29.952Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:37:59.524Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 93, "resolution_data": { @@ -58099,7 +58257,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Poker is a challenging game of bets, raises, and re-raises, calculation of odds and expected payoffs, game-theoretic mixed strategies, and tradeoffs between unexploitable and exploitative play.\nPoker is also a challenging game of visually identifying and then gripping small plastic discs and rectangles, and discriminating them between them based on their colors and symbols printed on their surfaces. These discs and rectangles must be moved around on a table in accordance with a game ruleset that is partially given in advance, and partly determined by verbal instruction from dealer and floor coordinator. \nAn example of the complexity of object manipulation that is required: the rectangles belonging to the player must be picked up in such a way that the symbols on the front can be inspected by the player, but kept oriented so that no other player can inspect those symbols, until such time as the ruleset dictates that the cards and symbols be revealed. Violating this constraint can lead not only to substandard play that is exploited by opponents, but also to penalties and even potential disqualification.\nAnd so we ask: when will a computer or robotic player become skilled enough at both the theoretical game and the physical game of poker to win a significant Texas HoldEm competition against humans in live play?\n\nDefinition of “significant competition”:\n----------------------------------------\n\nA Texas HoldEm tournament or cash game in which:\n---more than 300 hands are played \n---robotic and human players obey the same rules, without special accommodations for the perceptual or motor skills of the robotic player (including complying with verbal direction from the dealer and staff) \n---competitors include at least one human member of the top 200 of the [Hendon Mob All Time Money List](http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/ranking/all-time-money-list/) (at the time of play) \n---the winner (best-outcome player) is awarded more than $10,000 US (whether that money is awarded to the robot itself or to its owners or developers), with the same payouts made to robotic and human players. \nThere are a wide variety of ways in which a competition like this could come about, and the intent is to cast a wide net. Two contrasting examples, which would both count for positive resolution:\n1--A “Deep Blue vs. Kasparov”-style challenge, in which the whole point of the competition is to pit human against machine. \n2--Harold takes a week off from his middle-management desk job, walks into the Rio All-Suites Hotel in Las Vegas, and plunks down $10,000 in cash for a seat in the World Series of Poker Main Event, because (since the recent passage of Robotic Personhood legislation) no one can tell him that he can’t, and after all it’s his money. \n\nClarifications and fine print:\n------------------------------\n\n---The robot player must finish #1 in the event. In the case of a cash game, this means netting the most money by the end. In the case of a tournament, this means playing until a robot is the only one left. \n---The win must be for the entire event as scheduled. For example, if a televised cash-game event is scheduled to span multiple days, a win over the course of a single day does not suffice. If the event is a single-elimination heads-up tournament, it does not suffice to win the semi-final game, even if that guarantees a purse greater than $10,000 US. \n---The robot need not literally sit in a chair at the poker table, but needs to be at the table taking up approximately the same portion of the perimeter that a human player would be allowed. \n--- \nThe rules must allow for the kinds of sensory modalities that would normally be legal for human players, but not for perceptual abilities that would correspond to cheating for humans. Examples: \n------Scanning cards in a way that allows reading through the back to see symbols on the front – disallowed. \n------Scanning the backs of cards to record their imperfections and distinguish between them in the future (i.e. “Every card is marked.”) - disallowed. \n------Scanning the faces of opponents to determine their emotional state – fair game. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:31.768Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:00.749Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 169, "resolution_data": { @@ -58118,7 +58276,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) is a charity evaluator that recommends a shortlist of charities that have the greatest impact per marginal donation.\nGiveWell tracks how much money it moves to recommended charities. For instance, GiveWell [moved $152 million](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/) in 2019.\nHow much money will GiveWell move in 2031?\nIf GiveWell does not exist, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nIf GiveWell does not report its money moved in 2031 and this information is not publicly accessible, this question resolves as ambiguous.\nFor this question, money moved equals the amount that can confidently be attributed to GiveWell's recommendations (in [the 2019 post](https://blog.givewell.org/2020/12/09/givewells-money-moved-in-2019/), \"headline money moved\" rather than \"best guess of total money directed to charities\").\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:33.584Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:02.372Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { @@ -58137,7 +58295,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A major uncertainty in understanding some timeline estimates for high-level AI is in estimating the minimal computational power necessary to perform the operations that the human brain does. \nEstimates in the literature (see appendix A on p. 84 of [this paper](http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) for a compilation) range from to FLOPS following a variety of methodologies. (For a comparison, the Landauer limit at 20 C is about bit erasures per second. However, the author has no clear idea how to convert between bit erasures and FLOPS.)\nThis huge range will probably eventually be narrowed down to within an order-of-magnitude or two, and we ask for that number here. Assume that by 2075 there is either (a) a full software emulation of a human brain that can duplicate the basic functionality of a typical adult human of average intelligence; or (b) there is an AI system that can pass a full \"strong\" Turing test (i.e. the interview is long, adversarial, and include sensory data); or (c) there is a computer system that attains \"human intelligence parity\" by the definition set forth in [this Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/). In each case (a,b,c) the number will be evaluated on a state-of-the-art system five years after the first demonstration of a system satisfying the criterion.\nWhat will the computation in FLOPS be of this machine system, if running at a speed comparable to that of human mental processing? \nThe point of this question is not really as a prediction, but more as a gathering place for estimates.\nFine print: we'll settle for a published estimate accurate to within a factor of 5. The speeds of the systems can be matched up by requiring that similar delays occur between queries and responses in the system as compared to humans, or scaling for this equivalency. Resolves as ambiguous if (a), (b) or (c) don't occur by 2075.\n(edited 2020-09-13 to fix eval date as 5 years after such a system appears.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:35.913Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:04.494Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 211, "resolution_data": { @@ -58156,7 +58314,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological, as opposed to being social or unreal?\nSee [here for a discussion](https://philpeople.org/feed_items/49518082) of this question by Chalmers.\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on race being biological. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:37.892Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:05.660Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { @@ -58186,7 +58344,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:41.295Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:06.823Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -58205,7 +58363,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nBetween 2011 and 2019, the number of people employed in the transportation and warehousing industries [increased by almost 2 million](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). \nMovements in the gig economy with the ride transportation market growing could greatly influence the potential growth of the number of people officially employed in the transportation industry. Over the last decade, the number of people employed in the taxi service industry grew over [500,000](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm). However, in heated debates with California, [Uber has declared](https://www.cnet.com/news/uber-says-158000-drivers-will-lose-work-if-theyre-reclassified-as-employees/) that movements to employ their drivers could actually reduce levels of employment among their drivers.\nHow many will be employed in the US transportation and warehousing industry in 2021 (in thousands)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics through their reports on the [Labor Force Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/cps/demographics.htm) taken from the Current Population Survey. It should represent the total amount of employment in the industry as a whole as observed in their annual industry tables. Historical data is also available for more detailed analysis and information.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:43.100Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:07.983Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -58235,7 +58393,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:44.890Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:09.712Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 143, "resolution_data": { @@ -58254,7 +58412,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Black Holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_hole) are regions of space time where the gravitational acceleration is so high nothing, not even light, can escape. They’re often the result of a sufficiently big star undergoing gravitational collapse at the end of its ‘life cycle’.\nFurthermore black holes can merge, forming ever more massive black holes, such can be found in the centre of our and other galaxies. They’re the most well known and in some aspect more easily researched black holes due to their mass, often as high as millions (our Milky Way’s supermassive black hole) or billions ([the recently imaged M87 supermassive black hole](https://eventhorizontelescope.org/)) solar masses.\nThere are, however, [much closer known black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) and black hole candidates, such as [QV Telescopii Ab](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HR_6819), the currently closest black hole, and also the first black hole associated with a naked eyes visible star, some 1,120 light years distant, or [A0620-00](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A0620-00) at 3,300 light years. \nThough direct evidence for a black hole remains difficult to acquire, favouring the statistically smaller fraction of black holes in binary systems, there are cases where their existence can be inferred, like for QV Tel Ab. As instrumentation and techniques improve, so should our knowledge about black hole distribution.\n\nHow far away will the closest known black hole or black hole candidate be in 2031?\n\n---Will resolve according to [Wikipedia’s List of nearest black holes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nearest_black_holes) or credible peer reviewed publication. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:46.572Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:10.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -58284,9 +58442,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:50.984Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:13.328Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 110, + "numforecasts": 113, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-29T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -58314,9 +58472,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:53.254Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:14.573Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 102, + "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-07T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -58344,7 +58502,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:55.047Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:15.932Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 232, "resolution_data": { @@ -58363,7 +58521,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nElectricity, internal combustion engines, and semiconductors facilitated automation in the last century, but AI now seems poised to automate many tasks once thought to be out of reach, from driving cars to making medical recommendations and beyond. \nHowever, measured productivity growth has actually declined by half over the past decade [[2]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001). To some extent, this may be evidence that information technology and other conventional stuff (non-informational inputs or outputs) aren't actually so cheaply or widely substitutable [[3]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w21547.pdf).\nThe prospects of growth of tech and automation may also be constrained by [Baumol’s “cost disease”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol%27s_cost_disease): sectors with rapid productivity growth are able to charge lower prices and subsequently have their share of GDP decline, whilst those with relatively slow productivity growth experience increases in their share of the value contributed to the economy. This might effectively cap the rate of growth of the value of tech as a proportion of the total economy [[4](https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AI.pdf)].\nBrynjolfsson et al. [[5]](https://www.nber.org/papers/w24001.pdf) have argued that recent progress in AI and automation might well be radically productivity enhancing, but this might yet go largely unnoticed because of an implementation lag: it takes considerable time to be able to sufficiently harness technologies with broad potential application that they qualify as general purpose technologies. Will the economic data bear this out sometime soon?\nWhat percent will software and information services contribute to US GDP in Q4 of 2030?\nThis question resolves the the percentage of total US GDP that is contributed by \"[Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag511.htm)\" and \"[Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services][https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm()](https://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag51.htm())\" according to seasonally adjusted data by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://apps.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?reqid=150&step=2&isuri=1&categories=gdpxind).\nin Q2 of 2020, \"Publishing industries, except internet (includes software)\" generated $315.7bn and \"Data processing, internet publishing, and other information services\" generated $285.3bn (both at annual rates). Total annualised GDP for Q2 2020 was $19,520.1bn. Hence, the question for Q2 2020 would resolve as 3.08%.\nHistorical [data may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YNd1d4W0atK7f0I_rnY7KWdPmzW0vpIFCbgKfGOCB5I/edit?usp=sharing).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:44:56.844Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:19.472Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 194, "resolution_data": { @@ -58382,7 +58540,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[World drug report](https://wdr.unodc.org/wdr2019/prelaunch/WDR19_Booklet_2_DRUG_DEMAND.pdf) estimates 188M users of cannabis and 21M users of ecstasy worldwide in 2017. It also mentions that 892 new psychoactive substances were reported to United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime early warning advisory in 2005-2018 period, however, none of them lead in worldwide usage statistics.\nSuppose some chemical compound (e.g. newly synthesized drug) is first reported to be non-medically (e.g. recreational) consumed by humans after 2021 inclusively.\nWhat is the estimated worldwide number of users of any such drug at any year between 2021 and 2070 (inclusively)?\n--- \nDrugs qualify only if the first reports of non-medical (e.g. recreational) consumption emerges after 2020 \n--- \nNon-medical consumption here includes a wide range of use-cases including recreation and using drugs for physical, cognitive, emotional effects, but does not include usage primarily for treating/preventing diseases or aging\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:00.525Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:20.640Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 70, "resolution_data": { @@ -58401,7 +58559,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Wikipedia [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growing_teeth) on \"growing teeth\" as of 2020-01-18 writes that:\nGrowing teeth is a bioengineering technology with the ultimate goal to create / re-create new full-molars in a person or an animal.\nThe following timeline is included in the article:\n2002 – British scientists have learned how to grow almost whole, but feeble teeth from single cells.\n2007 – Japanese scientists have bred mice almost full new teeth, but without a root.\n2009 – from the stem cells were grown full teeth in mice, and even managed to grow a tooth root, previously it was not possible, but there is a problem, it is that grown teeth were slightly less \"native\" teeth.\n2013 - Chinese scientists grow human teeth in mice using stem cells taken from human urine.\n2015 - Growing New Teeth in the Mouth Using Stem-Cell Dental Implants\n2018 - Protein disorder–order interplay to guide the growth of hierarchical mineralized structures.\nSimilarly, the [article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tooth_regeneration) on \"tooth regeneration\" as of 2020-01-18 states:\nTooth regeneration is a stem cell based regenerative medicine procedure in the field of tissue engineering and stem cell biology to replace damaged or lost teeth by regrowing them from autologous stem cells.\nThere has been significant progress in the last few decades, prompting some headlines such as \"Instead of Filling Cavities, Dentists May Soon Regenerate Teeth\" and \"Stem Cell Treatment Could Spell the End for Root Canals\".\nThe question is: When will credible media sources first report that at least 100 patients have had part of their tooth, tooth enamel, or root canal regenerated by stem cell therapy?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:02.822Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:22.000Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { @@ -58431,9 +58589,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:06.172Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:23.710Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-06-20T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -58450,7 +58608,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Along with autonomous passenger vehicles, autonomous cargo vehicles hold a great potential to remake the transportation industry. Trucks dominate freight movement in the US; according to a [2013 report](https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/rita.dot.gov.bts/files/FFF_complete.pdf), trucks moved 13.8 billions tons of domestic freight in 2013, with rail and water shipments totaling 2 billion tons. About half of this freight was moved more than 100 miles. The trucking system is comprised of about 10.5 million trucks, 2.5 million of which are \"combination\" trucks such as tractor-trailers.\nAll of these trucks at present have human drivers, but for how long? In October 2016, the first delivery by a driverless truck [was reported](http://fortune.com/2016/10/25/uber-anheuser-busch-first-autonomous-truck-beer-delivery/), and a number of major efforts are underway to build both autonomous trucks and systems to [retrofit existing trucks](https://www.trucks.com/2016/08/16/otto-autonomous-truck-tech/). This issue probably deserves several questions but we can start with a shortish-term one:\nWhen will a driverless truck make a coast-to-coast trip? \nFor positive resolution, the truck must have no driver (even one in the \"passenger seat\" who could take over driving), but need not be commercially available (as in the beer-delivery case.) \"Coast-to-coast\" will be defined as starting in a state with an Atlantic ocean coast, and ending in a state with a Pacific Ocean coast (or vice-versa). Resolution time will be on the date of the first credible media report (in case the trip occurs.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:08.278Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:25.180Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 348, "resolution_data": { @@ -58469,7 +58627,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Robot Operating System (ROS) is a widely used open source software stack for writing robot software. It is a collection of tools, libraries, and conventions that aim to simplify the task of creating complex and robust robot behavior across a wide variety of robotic platforms. ROS is used by many commercial manufacturers and academic researchers.\n[ROS.org](http://ROS.org) periodically publishes [metrics reports](http://wiki.ros.org/Metrics) that provides a quantitative view of the ROS community. Included in its reports is the number of unique visitors who download any ROS package.\nHow many total unique visitors will download Debian package files from [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) in the year ending July 2021?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the number of [Debian](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deb_(file_format)) package files downloaded from ROS by unique visitors in the year ending July 2021, according ot [ROS.org](http://ROS.org) metrics report.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:10.156Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:26.416Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { @@ -58499,7 +58657,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:12.194Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:27.676Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -58529,7 +58687,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:14.295Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:29.113Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 613, "resolution_data": { @@ -58559,7 +58717,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:16.135Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:31.930Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 376, "resolution_data": { @@ -58589,7 +58747,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:18.175Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:33.708Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 196, "resolution_data": { @@ -58619,7 +58777,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:21.688Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:35.259Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 204, "resolution_data": { @@ -58649,7 +58807,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:24.127Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:36.467Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1139, "resolution_data": { @@ -58668,7 +58826,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Republic of Singapore](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singapore) makes more intensive use of foreign workers than many other countries. The [Singapore Ministry of Manpower published](https://www.mom.gov.sg/documents-and-publications/foreign-workforce-numbers) statistics indicating there were 1,399,600 Foreign Workers in Singapore in June 2019.\nSingapore is also the second most [robot dense country in the world after S. Korea](https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/robot-density-rises-globally) which suggests that country is willing to aggressively pursue automation and teleoperation strategies.\nSingapore has had specific problems dealing with the COVID-19 epidemic in [foreign worker dormitories](https://asiatimes.com/2020/04/cracks-show-in-singapores-model-covid-19-response/)\nThis question asks: What will the size of Singapore's total foreign workforce be, for the first month after 2020-12-01 for which data is published?\nThis question will resolve to the number of foreign workers published in the next available official statistics from the Singapore Ministry of Manpower after December 1, 2020.\nIf no figures are published by June 1, 2021 this question resolves as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:27.644Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:38.826Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { @@ -58698,7 +58856,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:29.590Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:39.976Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { @@ -58717,7 +58875,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nThe [EIA recently reported](https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-november-2020) that US crude oil production is expected to stay level throughout 2021 from its current level at the end of 2020. \n“The U.S. crude oil production forecast reflects EIA’s expectations that annual global petroleum demand will not recover to pre-pandemic levels (101.5 million b/d in 2019) through at least 2021. EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum will average 92.9 million b/d in 2020 and 98.8 million b/d in 2021.”\nIf demand continues to remain low, the number of rigs needed to provide crude oil will lower as well. Over the last 12 months, from February 7, 2020 to February 5, 2021, the number of rigs in the US [fell by 398 to a total of just 392](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview), representing a drop of over 50%. \nAs the market for oil begins the process of rebalancing, and as prices subsequently rise, we should see an increase in the number of rigs in the US back to pre-COVID-19 levels. \nWhen will the number of US oil rigs exceed 1000?\n\nData\n====\n\nHistorical data can also be found [here](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count).\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution will come from [Baker Hughes rig count](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:31.450Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:41.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { @@ -58736,7 +58894,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nAI Safety refers to a field aimed at developing techniques for designing AI systems that do not display unintended and harmful behaviour [(Amodei et al., 2016)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1606.06565.pdf). A related problem is that of (the lack of) transparency and interpretability of complicated ML systems. Transparency and interpretability techniques aim to generate insights about what ML systems are doing. Such techniques may enable meaningful human oversight and in building fair, safe, and aligned AI systems [(Olah, 2018)](https://distill.pub/2018/building-blocks/).\nHow many e-prints on AI Safety, interpretability or explainability will be published on ArXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2020-12-14 to 2021-06-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question e-prints published under Computer Science that contain the following keywords in \"all fields\" (i.e. the abstract and title):\n\"ai safety\", \"ai alignment\", \"aligned ai\", \"value alignment problem\", \"reward hacking\", \"reward tampering\", \"tampering problem\", \"safe exploration\", \"robust to distributional shift\", \"scalable oversight\", \"explainable AI\", \"interpretable AI\", \"explainable model\", \"verification for machine learning\", \"verifiable machine learning\", \"interpretable model\", \"interpretable machine learning\", \"cooperative inverse reinforcement learning\", \"value learning\", \"iterated amplification\", \"preference learning\", \"AI safety via debate\", \"reward modeling\", \"logical induction\"\nThe query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). You can [execute the query here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22ai+safety%22&terms-0-field=all&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22ai+alignment%22&terms-1-field=all&terms-2-operator=OR&terms-2-term=%22aligned+ai%22&terms-2-field=all&terms-3-operator=OR&terms-3-term=%22value+alignment+problem%22&terms-3-field=all&terms-4-operator=OR&terms-4-term=%22reward+hacking%22&terms-4-field=all&terms-5-operator=OR&terms-5-term=%22reward+tampering%22&terms-5-field=all&terms-6-operator=OR&terms-6-term=%22tampering+problem%22&terms-6-field=all&terms-7-operator=OR&terms-7-term=%22safe+exploration%22&terms-7-field=all&terms-8-operator=OR&terms-8-term=%22robust+to+distributional+shift%22&terms-8-field=all&terms-9-operator=OR&terms-9-term=%22scalable+oversight%22&terms-9-field=all&terms-10-operator=OR&terms-10-term=%22explainable+AI%22&terms-10-field=all&terms-11-operator=OR&terms-11-term=%22interpretable+AI%22&terms-11-field=all&terms-12-operator=OR&terms-12-term=%22explainable+model%22&terms-12-field=all&terms-13-operator=OR&terms-13-term=%22verification+for+machine+learning%22&terms-13-field=all&terms-14-operator=OR&terms-14-term=%22verifiable+machine+learning%22&terms-14-field=all&terms-15-operator=OR&terms-15-term=%22interpretable+model%22&terms-15-field=all&terms-16-operator=OR&terms-16-term=%22interpretable+machine+learning%22&terms-16-field=all&terms-17-operator=OR&terms-17-term=%22cooperative+inverse+reinforcement+learning%22&terms-17-field=all&terms-18-operator=OR&terms-18-term=%22value+learning%22&terms-18-field=all&terms-19-operator=OR&terms-19-term=%22iterated+amplification%22&terms-19-field=all&terms-20-operator=OR&terms-20-term=%22preference+learning%22&terms-20-field=all&terms-21-operator=OR&terms-21-term=%22AI+safety+via+debate%22&terms-21-field=all&terms-22-operator=OR&terms-22-term=%22reward+modeling%22&terms-22-field=all&terms-23-operator=OR&terms-23-term=%22logical+induction%22&terms-23-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---80 for the calendar year 2017 \n---127 for the calendar year 2018 \n---275 for the calendar year 2019 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:33.212Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:42.709Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 221, "resolution_data": { @@ -58766,7 +58924,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:34.882Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:44.638Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 190, "resolution_data": { @@ -58785,7 +58943,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "There are many resources in space that are of substantial value in terrestrial markets. For example, asteroid database [Asterank](http://www.asterank.com/) lists hundreds of asteroids with estimated values of over 100 trillion USD each, based on their composition (which typically includes metals such as nickel, iron, and cobalt, as well as other compounds such as water or hydrogen which could be sold as fuel). Other asteroids contain rare metals such as [platinum](https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/), although presumably mining such asteroids in quantity would flood the market with such metals and potentially reduce their value. Other sites may have resources as well; for example, the Moon contains large quantities of [Helium-3](https://www.esa.int/Enabling_Support/Preparing_for_the_Future/Space_for_Earth/Energy/Helium-3_mining_on_the_lunar_surface), a potential nuclear fusion fuel.\nThis being the case, it would seem that there is a substantial opportunity to mine metals or other products in space, provided that it can be done cheaply enough.\nWhen will a space mining company report a profit?\n---Space mining will be defined as capturing any material from an astronomical object with a distance of greater than 100 km above Earth's surface and selling it to a third party. Thus one can mine from asteroids, planets, moons, etc. Redirecting asteroids to Earth and mining them on the ground counts, as does mining material in space for use in space (e.g. hydrogen fuel). \n---The question resolves when a credible media report indicates that some space mining company had a profit over a period of at least three months (e.g. a quarterly earnings report), and this profit is primarily earned through actual mining operations, not e.g. NASA research studies. \n---If the space mining constitutes only a small part of a larger organization, as long as it is clear that the space mining arm's revenues exceeded its expenses, it can still qualify. \n---In general, if there is an event that is unclear (e.g. difficult to separate mining costs/revenues, or accounting irregularities), admins should lean towards waiting for an unambiguous triggering event and resolving positive at that time, rather than resolving ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:38.211Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:45.917Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { @@ -58804,7 +58962,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every year, the World Bank releases [statistics on merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/TG.VAL.TOTL.GD.ZS?most_recent_value_desc=false). \nMerchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP, all in current U.S. dollars.\nSouth Korean president Ban Ki-Moon believes that the DPRK \"wants to join international financial institutions like the IMF and the World Bank\". There is some speculation that the DPRK's leadership is opting for a [Vietnamese-style Doi Moi policy](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/13/north-korea-may-choose-to-follow-vietnams-economic-model.html) and that their diplomatic overtures to the U.S have the end goal of lifting all sanctions.\nThe question asks: What will North Korea's merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP be in 2045 according to the most recently released World Bank statistics?\nBecause the World Bank has a delay between collecting and publishing data, this question will resolve as the most recent statistic made available by 01/01/2046, and will resolve as ambiguous if no official data exists later than the year 2040. If the World Bank does not release data on the Democratic People's Republic of Korea's merchandise trade at all (as is presently the case), this question will similarly resolve as ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:40.166Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:47.105Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 50, "resolution_data": { @@ -58834,7 +58992,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:42.127Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:48.334Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 55, "resolution_data": { @@ -58853,7 +59011,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Assume that either of the following criteria is met during the first recession before 2032:\n--- \nThe US remains in a recession for 36 months or longer (as adjudicated by [this Metaculus Question's resolution](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2623/if-the-us-enters-a-recession-how-many-months-will-the-economic-contraction-last/)--i.e., if that one resolves ≥36, this criterion has been met).\n--- \nAny year's Annual Real GDP growth (as [reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis](https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases)) is estimated to be -10% or less.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if no such depression occurs.\nDefine the relative severity of this depression as the number of months the depression lasts times the real GDP decline in percentage points (peak to trough, on an annual basis), divided by 1131.\nWe divide by 1131 because the Great Depression lasted 43 months, and the real GDP decline [was](https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543) 26.3%, and .\nWhat will be this depression's relative severity ?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:44.030Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:49.557Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 146, "resolution_data": { @@ -58883,7 +59041,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:45.805Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:50.732Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { @@ -58913,7 +59071,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:47.493Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:51.967Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -58932,7 +59090,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] Emulations might also enable a type of “digital immortality” by creating back‐up copies of an individual's identity, thereby promising a type of continued survival in cyberspace after death.[[3](https://jetpress.org/v26.2/linssen_lemmens.htm)]\nThere is considerable debate about the technological feasibility of WBE: though there is general (though not universal) agreement that the brain, being a physical system, is amenable to being simulated. However, the necessary scanning, data gathering, image interpretation, and amounts of computation required might still be beyond what our reach for some time to come. (see [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)])\nWhen will a whole human brain be successfully emulated?\nThis question resolves positive when a human brain is first successfully emulated on a computer, with the emulation being at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” defined in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion of an individual brain emulation: \nThe emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\nRequired properties of an individual brain emulation: \nCorrect internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\nEmulation here is the process, described in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). Donors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. Resolution requires just those portions of the human brain that have functionally relevant effects on actual behaviour to be emulated. The emulation needs to run sufficiently long to confirm that it successfully produces similar outward behaviour more similar to the activity of the original brain than that of any other human brain.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:49.595Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:53.214Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { @@ -58951,9 +59109,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "COVID-19 is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, and resulted in a global pandemic in 2020. Due to community spread of the virus throughout the United States and other countries, there has been interest in developing a vaccine to hopefully stop the spread of the virus.\nIn November 2020, Pfizer and Moderna announced their COVID-19 vaccines were more than 90% effective according to early trial data. Both vaccines require two doses per person. Government officials expect there to be 40 million doses from the Pfizer and Moderna vaccine available in 2020 if both vaccines are approved, enough to vaccinate 20 million people. [(Washington Post)](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/17/covid-vaccines-what-you-need-to-know/) By the end of 2021, Pfizer estimates it will be able to produce 1.3 billion doses, and Moderna estimates it will be able to produce 1 billion doses. [(The Guardian)](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/16/moderna-covid-vaccine-candidate-almost-95-effective-trials-show)\nBased on a chart from an [analysis by McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/healthcare-systems-and-services/our-insights/when-will-the-covid-19-pandemic-end), a 90% effective vaccine covering 50% of the population, along with an additional ~15% natural immunity level, may be sufficient to achieve herd immunity. This model assumes that immunity is reached when the immune population reaches 58%, calculated from the expression 1 − 1/R₀, where R₀ is 2.4.\nWhen will 150 million Americans be vaccinated against COVID-19?\nThis question will resolve as the date when 150 million Americans (people residing in the United States) have been vaccinated for COVID-19, according to a reliable media or reliable official government source. If this does not resolve before 01 January 2023, it resolves as >01 January 2023.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:52.788Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:54.439Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 112, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-02-12T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -58981,7 +59139,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:54.644Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:55.605Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -59011,7 +59169,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:45:56.514Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:38:57.158Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 356, "resolution_data": { @@ -59030,7 +59188,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018 there were just over 1 million electric vehicles on American roads, a milestone for the industry that took eight years to arrive at. As EV popularity and manufacturing capacity trend upward, the [Edison Electric Institute](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/en/publications/publications?category=Report) [predicts](https://www.edisonfoundation.net/-/media/Files/IEI/publications/IEI_EEI-EV-Forecast-Report_Nov2018.ashx) the jump to the next million US EV’s will only require three years, expecting that number to climb to 18.7 million by 2030. With [273.6 million vehicles](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.) registered in the US in 2018, EV’s then represented .36% of the vehicles on the road. The Edison Institute predicts that number will rise to 7% by 2030.\nMany electric vehicle batteries rely on lithium to run, and analysts are speculating on the potential impacts of the coronavirus on the supply of lithium batteries as an intervening factor in the industry’s growth. Chinese suppliers produced 79% of the lithium hydroxide used in all electric vehicles in 2019. With the rise of the pandemic, Chinese battery manufacturers have limited or stopped all production and lithium prices are beginning to rise. \n[Forbes reports](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2020/03/25/manufacturers-are-struggling-to-supply-electric-vehicles-with-batteries/#15708fd91ff3): \nWhile most of the manufacturers have already restarted their production, the outbreak is estimated to set Chinese battery producers back by 26GWh of output in 2020.This halt in production has created supply shortages for western carmakers, as automakers, such as Fiat Chrysler, PSA Group, General Motors, Daimler and Ford, have their plants in the province of Hubei, where the Coronavirus took its first hit.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat percentage of vehicles on US roads will be fully electric by 2030? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the percentage of US cars on the road that are fully electric, according to the number of EV's reported by [ZSW Data service](https://www.zsw-bw.de/mediathek/datenservice.html) and the total number of US vehicles reported by [Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/183505/number-of-vehicles-in-the-united-states-since-1990/#:~:text=How%20many%20registered%20motor%20vehicles,at%206.3%20million%20in%202016.). Should these services be discontinued, comparable credible sources will be utilized in their place, as determined by Metaculus admins.\n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[When will electric cars constitute over 5% of the US passenger car fleet?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3658/when-will-electric-cars-constitute-over-5-of-the-us-passenger-car-fleet/) \n---[How many new electric vehicles will be registered worldwide, in the calendar year 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3542/how-many-new-electric-vehicles-will-be-registered-worldwide-in-the-calendar-year-2023/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:00.238Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:00.932Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -59049,7 +59207,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nIn 2020, with the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic, income security spending increased to [$1.5 trillion dollars by December 2020](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). In Q1 2020, the allocated budget was only 7.9% of the total budget, with a monetary value of $134.7 billion dollars. However, by Q2, the percentage of the budget jumped up 2% to 9.8%. By Q3, it became the greatest percentage of the federal budget, over military, social security, and all healthcare payments, at more than 15%. \nWith the [new stimulus package/COVID-19 relief funding](https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/everything-in-the-new-stimulus-bill-600-stimulus-300-unemployment-checks-more/) expected for release sometime in 2021, at a total of over $900 billion dollars, the budget allocated for income security is likely to remain higher than normal. As the US attempts to re-open the economy, and lower the rate of transmission with the newly introduced vaccine, what the federal government chooses to support, and how they will fund it, remains an interesting question.\nHow much will the federal government spend on income security in 2021 (in billions)?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nResolution criteria will be obtained from [USAspending.gov](https://www.usaspending.gov/explorer/budget_function). Data for 2021 should be available early in 2022, and historical data from 2017 is also present for each portion of the fiscal year (per quarter and month). It should represent the total amount by December 31st spent by the government, in billions, on income security.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:01.956Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:02.226Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -59068,7 +59226,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Recently, the world quietly marked a significant milestone. For the first time, life expectancy at birth for both sexes now exceeds 50 years in all countries, [with Sierra Leone the lowest at 50.1 years.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy) As of January 2019, there are no countries outside of Sub-Saharan Africa where the life expectancy at birth for both sexes is below 60.\nThis question asks: When, for the first time, will life expectancy at birth for both sexes reach at least 60 years in all countries simultaneously? \nBy 'for both sexes,' this question refers to the average for both sexes, not a requirement that life expectancy must equal 60 years for women and men individually.\nResolution should cite data from the World Health Organization, United Nations or a similarly authoritative body.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:05.366Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:03.421Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 141, "resolution_data": { @@ -59098,7 +59256,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:07.225Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:04.683Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { @@ -59117,9 +59275,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The daily number of flights in operation globally [dropped precipitously](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-airlines-iata/airlines-set-to-lose-157-billion-amid-worsening-slump-iata-idUSKBN2841KA) this past March/April as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and remains well below 2018 and 2019 figures. The 7-day moving average number of commercial flights on 30 June 2020 was 49,717 compared to 123,304 on 30 June 2019.\nWhat will be the total number of commercial flights in operation on 30 June 2021?\nFlightrader24’s [“2020 7-day moving average”](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics) for the number of commercial flights on 30 June 2021 will be considered for resolution. The 7-day moving average is used so as to smooth out any day-of-the-week effects.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:09.022Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:05.874Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 167, + "numforecasts": 169, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59147,9 +59305,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:10.827Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:07.033Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 155, + "numforecasts": 157, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59177,7 +59335,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:12.568Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:08.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 30, "resolution_data": { @@ -59196,7 +59354,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Automakers, policy makers and energy producers are predicting [the future of global commercial vehicles to be electric](https://qz.com/1620614/electric-car-forecasts-are-all-over-the-map/). However, predictions about the timing of gas guzzlers’ eclipse are all over the map (e.g. see [here](https://www.theatlas.com/charts/rJXp4Vc3N)). This lack in consensus is in part due differing opinions on current and future lithium-ion battery costs and performance.\nIn their annual Battery Price Survey, [Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF)](https://about.bnef.com/) collects data on the annual industry volume-weighted average battery price for electronic vehicles and stationary storage. BNEF reported a volume-weighted average battery price of $176 per kilowatt hour, in 2018 USD.\nWhen will the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the year in which the volume-weighted average battery for electronic vehicles and stationary storage reach $100 per kilowatt hour, according to BNEF's Battery Price Survey in 2018 USD. It resolves ambiguous if their survey is discontinued or found to be inadmissible (such as when their methodology changes). The methodology is deemed to have changed if estimates of historical prices change by >25% relative to those recorded below.\nThis question resolves as the date obtained by linearly interpolating the between the price when the threshold is first crossed, and the previously reported price.\nData\nThese are the following volume-weighted average prices per kWh, according to [BNEF survey results](https://about.bnef.com/blog/behind-scenes-take-lithium-ion-battery-prices/):\n2010: $1160, 2011: $899, 2012: $707, 2013: $650, 2014: $577 2015: $373, 2016: $288, 2017: $214, 2018: $174 (all in 2018 USD)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:15.924Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:10.195Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -59226,7 +59384,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:19.351Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:12.618Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { @@ -59245,7 +59403,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every sixth death in the world is due to cancer, making it the [second leading cause of death](http://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(17)32152-9.pdf) (second only to cardiovascular diseases). In 2016, 8.9 million people are estimated to have died from the various forms of cancer.\nSome cancers are harder to survive than others. Common cancer sites with low 5 year survival rates include the brain and nervous system (35.9%), stomach (31.1%), oesophagus (21%), lungs and bronchus (19.5%), liver (18.5%) and pancreas (8.7%) ([all rates for both sexes, all races from 2013 in the U.S.](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates)).\nWhen will we see a doubling of the odds of survival (relative to 2013 rates) in the U.S. for cancers in any two of the following sites for both sexes and all races: brain and nervous system, stomach, oesophagus, lungs and bronchus, liver, or the pancreas?\nPositive resolution requires any two of the following reported average rates for both sexes and all races in the U.S.\n1--% 5-year survival rates for brain and nervous system cancer, \n2--% 5-year survival rates for stomach cancer, \n3--% 5-year survival rates for oesophagus cancer, \n4--% 5-year survival rates for lungs and bronchus cancer, \n5--% 5-year survival rates for liver cancer, \n6--% 5-year survival rates for pancreatic cancer, \nas reported by the National Cancer Institute, or any other reputable provider of medical statistics.\nHistorical of survival rates from all listed cancers are catalogued in [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/cancer#cancer-survival-rates).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:21.228Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:13.802Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { @@ -59264,7 +59422,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2029?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2029 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:23.055Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:16.021Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 87, "resolution_data": { @@ -59294,7 +59452,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:26.849Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:17.653Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -59324,9 +59482,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:28.742Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:19.101Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 206, + "numforecasts": 207, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-11T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59354,7 +59512,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:30.588Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:20.339Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -59384,7 +59542,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:32.628Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:21.532Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 195, "resolution_data": { @@ -59414,9 +59572,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:34.478Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:22.698Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 154, + "numforecasts": 155, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-21T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59433,7 +59591,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since 2013, the Federal Reserve Board has conducted the [Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/consumerscommunities/shed.htm), which measures the economic well-being of U.S. households and identifies potential risks to their finances. The survey includes modules on a range of topics of current relevance to financial well-being including credit access and behaviors, savings, retirement, economic fragility, and education and student loans.\nSince its first edition in 2013, the SHED has [included a question about whether or not the survey participant could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money.](https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/2018-economic-well-being-of-us-households-in-2017-dealing-with-unexpected-expenses.htm)\nIn 2013, only 50% of survey participants said that they could do so. (See Figure 11 in the link above.) That number has slowly but steadily improved over time. In 2017, the most recent year for which figures are available as of January 16 2019, 59% of survey participants said they could do so.\nThis question asks: In the Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking conducted for the year 2020, what percentage of Americans will say that they could cover an unexpected $400 expense without needing to sell something or borrow money?\nIn the event that this survey is renamed or discontinued but the same question is asked by another survey conducted by either the Federal Reserve or the U.S. Treasury, this question should remain active. If no such survey is conducted for the year 2020, this question shall resolve ambiguously.\nIn the event that the dollar value in question is changed by more than 5% in real terms (linked to 2019 dollars), this question shall resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:38.277Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:25.284Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -59452,7 +59610,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image. [Microsoft's Common Objects in Context](https://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0312) (COCO) is a dataset from 2014 that is used to benchmark object recognition. The data places the question of object recognition in the context of the broader question of scene understanding. It contains images of complex everyday scenes containing common objects in their natural context. COCO includes a total of 2.5 million labeled instances in 328k images.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is Cascade Eff-B7 NAS-FPN [(Ghiasi et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2012.07177v1.pdf), which achieves a box average precision (box AP) of 57.3.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, at 2021-06-14 in box Average Precision (AP)?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance in box AP achieved on COCO test-dev (COCO's test set) up until 2021-06-14 11:59 GMT. Models trained on additional dataset do qualify. For the purpose of this question, models using [Test Time Augmentations](https://www.kaggle.com/andrewkh/test-time-augmentation-tta-worth-it) may also qualify.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:40.198Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:26.449Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { @@ -59471,7 +59629,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "World real GDP growth is determined by a reliable organization, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/ny.gdp.mktp.kd.zg). The year with the highest growth in the 21st century is currently 2004 with 4.403% growth. The 21st century is defined as the era that began on January 1, 2001, and will end on December 31, 2100.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:41.966Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:27.699Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 68, "resolution_data": { @@ -59490,7 +59648,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Currently, [14 countries](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) allow voting by young people with no major restrictions (as of Jan. 16, 2021). Another 14 countries allow some citizens <18 years of age suffrage with major qualifications, usually related to marriage, employment, or type of election.\nA number of [movements or proposals to allow minors to vote](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/19/us/politics/voting-age.html) are active or have been proposed in dozens of countries as of 2021.\nHow many countries will allow people younger than 18 to vote, with no major conditions, in 2026?\nBroad enfranchisement, with no major restrictions, of the chosen age group in a country is required for that country to be added to the total. Restrictions that require marriage (as in Hungary and Indonesia) or employment (as in Slovenia and Croatia) or restrict <18 voters to local elections only/European elections only (as in Scotland or Belgium) disqualify a country for purposes of this question. \nRestrictions commonly applied to voting adults do not disqualify a country; it's okay if <18 voters need ID, or must be a citizen, or have no criminal convictions, etc.\nVoting age must be lowered at least ten months below 18 years old to count; e.g. 17-year-old suffrage counts, but 17.5-year-old suffrage does not.\nAt least 70% of the age group in question must be enfranchised to count; places like Germany and the US where minors may vote in states or municipalities comprising <70% of the country's population do not suffice.\nResolution will use [the NYRA tracker](https://www.youthrights.org/issues/voting-age/voting-age-status-report/) as a primary source, or [Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_age) and credible media reports if necessary.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:43.658Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:29.895Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -59520,7 +59678,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:49.360Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:32.666Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -59539,7 +59697,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Democracy seems to be facing one of its most serious crisis in decades as its basic tenets—including guarantees of free and fair elections, the rights of minorities, freedom of the press, and the rule of law— have come under attack around the world.\n[According to a 2018 report by Freedom House](https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/FH_FITW_Report_2018_Final_SinglePage.pdf ), an NGO, political rights and civil liberties around the world have deteriorated to their lowest point in more than a decade in 2017, extending a period characterised by emboldened autocrats, beleaguered democracies, and the United States’ withdrawal from its leadership role in the global struggle for human freedom.\nIn 2017, a reported 71 countries suffered net declines in political rights and civil liberties, with only 35 registering gains. This marked the 12th consecutive year of decline in global freedom. Over the period since the 12-year global slide began in 2006, 113 countries have seen a net decline, and only 62 have experienced a net improvement.\nCountries with a [Freedom Rating, an index of the quality of civil liberties and political rights,](https://freedomhouse.org/report/methodology-freedom-world-2018 ) less than 2.5 are designated as ‘Free’. Currently, 88 countries have are designated as ‘Free’.\nHow many countries will be designated as 'Free' in 2028, according to Freedom House?\nThis number is expected be published in Freedom House's 2029 annual Freedom in the World report. The question resolves ambiguously if their reports are discontinued.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:51.255Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:33.896Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 190, "resolution_data": { @@ -59569,7 +59727,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:52.954Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:35.095Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -59588,7 +59746,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "I have already asked [whether there will be a machine learning model trained with 100 trillion parameters](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3656/will-a-100-trillion-parameter-deep-learning-model-be-trained-before-2026/) trained before 2026. We still have a way to go before reaching that milestone, but a day before writing this question, OpenAI published [a paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.14165) describing GPT-3, a 175 billion parameter transformer. This model is over an order of magnitude larger than the previous largest models, which had [roughly 17 billion](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/turing-nlg-a-17-billion-parameter-language-model-by-microsoft/) parameters.\nPhysical constraints will eventually slow progress, but things can still get interesting before then.\nI ask, before 2030, how many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained have? Resolution is determined by some sort of reliable document, blog post, or paper, published anywhere on the internet.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:54.896Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:36.315Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -59618,9 +59776,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:56.757Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:37.521Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-29T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59637,7 +59795,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A [robotaxi](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robotaxi), also known as a self-driving taxi or a driverless taxi, is an autonomous car (SAE automation level 4 or 5) operated for a ridesharing company.\nSince a significant part of taxi costs is the driver's income, self-driving taxis could be more affordable than human-driven taxis and accelerate the spreading of Transportation-as-a-Service (TaaS) solutions as opposed to individual car ownership.\nTesla, Inc. has announced they are planning to launch their robo-taxis service by 2020. \"I feel very confident predicting autonomous robo-taxi for Tesla next year. Not in all jurisdictions, because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere, but I'm confident we'll have at least regulatory approvals somewhere, literally next year\" -Elon Musk in April 2019.\nThe question asks:\nWhen will Tesla self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?\nThis question will resolve when all of the following conditions are fulfilled:\n1--At least 5 Metaculus users with top 100 Metaculus rank report riding Tesla self-driving taxi as a normal client. \n2--At least one of the reported rides must happen outside the United States. \n3--There must be no human driver or supervisor present in all the reported rides. \nUse of geo-fencing is allowed.\nSimilar questions:\n---[When will self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5303/widely-available-self-driving-taxi/) \n---[When will Waymo self-driving taxis be available to Metaculus users?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5306/widely-available-waymo-self-driving-taxi/) \n---By self-driving Tesla taxi we mean any Tesla car without a human driver, safety supervisor, etc. physically inside the car. The car must not operate on a single fixed route or a track like a bus, tram or train and the client must be free to choose destination within a specific area. \n---The ride must be at least 3 kilometers long within a city (by the path taken, not the straight-line distance) interacting with normal traffic (not a closed course). \n---The company providing the service must not require any special conditions or arrangements like signing NDA, besides standard terms of service. \n---The client must pay for the trip. \n---The client must be a top 100 Metaculus user at the time that they report the trip. They can report it publicly, or by privately contacting Metaculus staff. \n---The reports must be credible, i.e. the taxis must be actually available at the time of report both in and outside USA and the report must be public in the question comments. Trying to pass someone else's ride off as your own is explicitly prohibited. Admins may at their discretion request evidence that the trip was taken. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:46:58.539Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:38.724Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 176, "resolution_data": { @@ -59667,9 +59825,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:00.245Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:39.884Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 118, + "numforecasts": 119, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-18T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59686,7 +59844,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is [\"the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations.\"](https://www.ghsindex.org/about/). It assesses countries on their capability to prevent and mitigate epidemics and pandemics based on 140 questions organized across 6 categories, 34 indicators, and 85 subindicators. It uses scores to these questions to create index scores for countries and also an overall GHS Index score for the world. The GHS is a joint project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, and The Economist Intelligence Unit. It was first published in 2019.\nThis question asks: What will be the average overall Global Health Security Index score for 2030?\nIn 2019, the average overall GHS Index score was [40.2 out of a possible score of 100](https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/).\nThis question will resolve to the average overall GHS Index score published in their 2030 report — as in, the report that is published during 2030. If no report is published in 2030, this will resolve to the average overall index score of the most recent report published after 2027. If the most recent report is one that is published in or before 2027, this will resolve ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:03.997Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:42.265Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -59716,7 +59874,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:05.829Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:43.484Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 227, "resolution_data": { @@ -59746,7 +59904,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:07.619Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:48.491Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { @@ -59765,7 +59923,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "When the Pope dies [(or resigns)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Resignation_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI), the Cardinals of the Cathlic Church convene a [Papal Conclave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave) to elect the Pope's successor. This mysterious procedure culminates in the [fumata](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papal_conclave#The_fumata_(smoke)), traditionally the burning of the ballots. Black smoke indicates that the ballot was inconclusive, while white smoke indicates that [a new Pope has been elected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Habemus_papam).\nThis question resolves as the first date and time (after question launch, before 2036-12-17) at which white smoke is emitted from the building in which a Papal Conclave is meeting.\nIf the Catholic Church or Papacy dissolves during or in the wake of Pope Francis' papacy, question resolves ambiguous. However, if both institutions are remain effectively intact, this question closes on 2036-12-17 (Pope Francis' 100th birthday). Should Pope Francis still be alive and Pope at that time, this question resolves as >2036-12-17.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:09.495Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:49.919Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 92, "resolution_data": { @@ -59784,7 +59942,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [SENS Research Foundation](https://www.sens.org/) is one of the best-known organisations in the anti-aging research space.\nSENS Research Foundation (SRF) is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization focused on transforming the way the world researches and treats age-related disease. SRF focuses on a damage repair paradigm for treating the diseases of aging, which it advances through scientific research, advocacy and education. SENS Research Foundation supports research projects at universities and institutes around the world with the goal of curing such age-related diseases as macular degeneration, heart disease, cancer, and Alzheimer’s disease. \nAs a 501(c)(3) non-profit, it is obliged to file an IRS Form 990 Return of Organization Exempt From Income Tax, from which we can obtain certain financial information.\nHere's [their Form 990 from the 2018 tax year.](https://www.sens.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/2018-SENS-990-Public-Copy.pdf) We can see their gross receipts in that tax year were $8,617,564.\nThis question asks: For the 2021 tax year, what figure will SENS Research Foundation report on their Form 990 as the value of their gross receipts, in US dollars?\nIn the event that no such filing is made (e.g. because SRF no longer exists or is no longer required to file this form), this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:11.375Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:51.104Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -59814,9 +59972,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:13.442Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:52.932Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 122, + "numforecasts": 123, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-09T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -59833,7 +59991,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2008 at 67.02%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2030 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2030 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:15.222Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:54.289Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { @@ -59863,7 +60021,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:19.437Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:55.545Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 434, "resolution_data": { @@ -59893,7 +60051,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:21.349Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:57.012Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 225, "resolution_data": { @@ -59923,7 +60081,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:23.337Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:58.374Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 5114, "resolution_data": { @@ -59942,7 +60100,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From Wikipedia,\nA capital gain refers to profit that results from a sale of a capital asset, such as stock, bond or real estate, where the sale price exceeds the purchase price. The gain is the difference between a higher selling price and a lower purchase price. Conversely, a capital loss arises if the proceeds from the sale of a capital asset are less than the purchase price. [...]\nIn the United States of America, individuals and corporations pay U.S. federal income tax on the net total of all their capital gains. The tax rate depends on both the investor's tax bracket and the amount of time the investment was held. Short-term capital gains are taxed at the investor's ordinary income tax rate and are defined as investments held for a year or less before being sold. Long-term capital gains, on dispositions of assets held for more than one year, are taxed at a lower rate.\nThis question asks about a hypothetical long-term capital gain of $1,000,000 on January 1st, 2024 for a non-married individual. In particular, the resolution will be determined by the effective tax rate of this gain according to the federal law at that time.\nIn September 2020, the current brackets for capital gains taxes can be found [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_gains_tax_in_the_United_States#Current_law). If the question resolution were determined via the law in September 2020, this question would resolve as 17.3%.\nWhat will be the effective federal tax rate for a hypothetical $1,000,000 long-term capital gain in the United States on January 1st 2024?\nSuppose hypothetically a non-married citizen in the United States obtains a $1,000,000 capital gain on an asset held for two years, on January 1st 2024. According to then-current federal law, what percentage of their gain would be taken as taxes by the federal government? Resolution here is determined via a calculation by the administrators, given in percentage points. \nAmbiguity resolution about the question shall be determined via consensus in the comments below (if any such consensus is reached). If ambiguities are not resolved, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:25.117Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:39:59.548Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -59972,7 +60130,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:26.962Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:00.745Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 408, "resolution_data": { @@ -60002,7 +60160,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:29.251Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:01.985Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -60021,7 +60179,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). An IPO can help a company raise capital quickly to support research and development and get products successfully to market. IPOs are a popular strategy amongst biotech companies to commercialise nascent technologies [(McNamee and Ledley, 2013)](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.2711). The median pre-money valuation of new biotech offerings [was roughly $350M in 2018](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucebooth/2018/09/24/the-rising-tide-of-biotech-ipo-valuations/#60aef2db65a8).\nWhen will there be a publicly listed clean meat company?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a privately held clean meat company first issues shares that are listed on an exchange and can be purchased by a member of the public. The acquisition of a private clean meat company by a public acquirer does not trigger positive resolution.\nFor the purpose of this question, a company is a \"clean meat company\" if, after six months of the clean meat company's initial public offering, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ holds initial public offering\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which its shares are first listed on an exchange, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[When will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3060/when-will-the-first-clean-meat-company-be-valued-at--1bn/)\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:32.286Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:03.304Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 231, "resolution_data": { @@ -60040,7 +60198,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC for its [fifth Assessment Report (AR5)](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/) in 2014. These four pathways are prominently considered in IPPC climate modelling and research, which describe different climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the years to come.\nRepresentative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario of long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover which stabilizes global CO₂ atmospheric concentration at approximately 650 ppm CO2-equivalent, in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value [(Thomson et al., 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4).\nPathway RCP4.5 limits mid-century (2046–2065) global mean temperature increase to 1.4°C with a likely range of 0.9°C to 2.0°C (95% confidence interval). Moreover, it limits end-of-century (2081–2100) global mean temperature increase to 1.8°C with a likely range of 1.1°C to 2.6°C (95% confidence interval) [(IPPC, 2013)](http://www.climatechange2013.org/images/report/WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf).\nOver the 2022 to 2025 period (inclusive), the RCP4.5 corresponds to an average of 419.13 parts-per-million (ppm) of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year [(Meinshausen et al. 2011)](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-011-0149-y). Over the 2027 to 2030 period, it corresponds to an average of 428.79 ppm of global CO₂ atmospheric concentration each year (ibid.).\nWhat will the average global atmospheric CO₂ concentration be, over the 2020 to 2021 period (inclusive)?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the arithmetic mean of the \"annual mean carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration data from the Mauna Loa monitoring station\" in 2020 and 2021, as reported by [Earth System Research Laboratory](https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html).\nData\n[Data on global CO₂ atmospheric concentration may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1EdkfP-2bW1vbM47yj9LWSRXiNGryTGCa-DWCDu23Dz8/edit?usp=sharing). \n[Data on atmospheric concentration along RCP pathways may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1G0lBi3-GdU8oGCqzMyXs1VywGZCuY70eFyn2ty4a2Ag/edit?usp=sharing). It may also be [downloaded from here](http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/).\nIf you wish to make a copy of the data, you can do this by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\". If you make useful additions to the dataset, feel free share the file in the comments.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:41.635Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:10.191Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 236, "resolution_data": { @@ -60070,7 +60228,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:47:43.329Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:11.365Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 155, "resolution_data": { @@ -60089,7 +60247,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Given the public disagreement of expert opinion on AI timelines, seen for example [here](http://www.parlonsfutur.com/blog/the-fascinating-facebook-debate-between-yann-lecun-stuart-russel-and-yoshua), there is a need to establish a credible track-record of accurate forecasting in the lead-up to the development of AGI. \nOren Etzioni, head of the Allen AI institute, recently published an [article](https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/02/25/906083/artificial-intelligence-destroy-civilization-canaries-robot-overlords-take-over-world-ai/) on identifying 'canaries' which will presage the imminent development of AGI. He proposes that limited versions of the Turing Test could present a natural canary.\nThis question's resolution will be determined by the number of years between the positive resolution of two other metaculus questions: the silver [Turing Test](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/) prediction and [AGI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/) prediction.\nIf the silver Turing test has not been passed by 2026 (the date limit set [by the question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/)), I will post a new version of that question using the prediction time series format and resolving 2075. Then the resolution of this question will depend on the resolution of the new silver Turing test question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:06.271Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:12.691Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -60119,7 +60277,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:08.125Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:13.965Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { @@ -60138,7 +60296,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In October 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) [announced the eradication](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/two-out-of-three-wild-poliovirus-strains-eradicated) of type 3 [poliomyelitis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio). This followed the eradication of type 2, which was [announced in 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). Only type 1 remains in the wild, but the CDC, WHO, and other involved public health institutions are optimistic that [it can be eradicated soon](http://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/english-polio-endgame-strategy.pdf).\nWhen will the WHO certify the worldwide eradication of all three serotypes of poliovirus?\nResolution\nTypes 2 and 3 have already been certified eradicated, but it's not impossible that the wild types could re-emerge naturally. (This [actually happened](https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/11-08-2016-government-of-nigeria-reports-2-wild-polio-cases-first-since-july-2014) in Nigeria in 2016, two years after the prior last reported natural cases in Africa.) This property of the virus has caused some reticence by the WHO about certifying the eradication--the last known type 2 case was in 1999, but [the WHO didn't certify it until 2015](http://polioeradication.org/news-post/global-eradication-of-wild-poliovirus-type-2-declared/). If another wild strain of type 2 or 3 re-emerges before the WHO certifies the worldwide eradication of type 1, this question will not be resolved until the WHO certifies the eradication of type 1 AND recertifies the eradication of the re-emergent type (or publicly declines to de-certify the earlier eradication).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:10.730Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:15.160Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -60168,7 +60326,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:12.890Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:16.587Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { @@ -60198,9 +60356,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:16.376Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:19.028Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 109, + "numforecasts": 110, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -60217,7 +60375,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Note: This question is the same as [another question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3366/what-will-spacex-be-worth-by-2030/), but with a higher range.\n[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://spacex.com), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California.\nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit (Falcon 1 in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft (Dragon in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station (Dragon in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket (Falcon 9 in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun (Falcon Heavy's payload of a Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the Starship. This vehicle is intended to enable ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond, as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars.\nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as Starlink, which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is due to be fully operational by the late 2020s. Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015. As of July 2020, SpaceX was reportedly valued at [$44 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/23/spacex-is-raising-up-to-1-billion-at-44-billion-valuation.html).\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization.\nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:18.811Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:20.180Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -60247,7 +60405,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:20.623Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:21.380Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 271, "resolution_data": { @@ -60277,7 +60435,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:22.986Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:22.629Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 468, "resolution_data": { @@ -60296,7 +60454,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nFollowing the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of [international travel restrictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Non-global_restrictions) and statewide [stay-at-home orders](https://www.businessinsider.com/us-map-stay-at-home-orders-lockdowns-2020-3) were put in place. The [impact on the aviation industry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_aviation) has been severe. According to [Conde Nast Traveler](https://www.cntraveler.com/story/coronavirus-air-travel-these-numbers-show-the-massive-impact-of-the-pandemic):\nOn April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers [screened by the TSA](https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput) fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.\nSome states have [begun reopening](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html), but domestic airline [executives](https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-air-lines-smaller-coronavirus/) [have](https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-airlines-ceo-warns-of-a-smaller-carrier-post-coronavirus/) [warned](https://thepointsguy.com/news/american-airlines-fight-for-our-lives-coronavirus/) that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic. \nThese were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:\n---January 2019 676,190 \n---February 2019 615,986 \n---March 2019 738,969 \n---April 2019 719,238 \n---May 2019 751,725 \n---June 2019 754,175 \n---July 2019 783,588 \n---August 2019 783,830 \n---September 2019 716,792 \n---October 2019 750,827 \n---November 2019 703,616 \n---December 2019 728,899 \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhen will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes? \n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to [US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics](https://www.transtats.bts.gov/TRAFFIC/). \nTo pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by \n\nRelated Questions\n=================\n\n---[Will American Airlines file for bankruptcy protection before 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4415/will-american-airlines-file-for-bankruptcy-protection-before-2021/) \n---[When will the suspension of incoming travel to the US from the Schengen area be terminated?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4291/when-will-the-suspension-of-incoming-travel-to-the-us-from-the-schengen-area-be-terminated/) \n---[When will daily commercial flights exceed 75,000?](https://pandemic.metaculus.com/questions/4347/when-will-daily-commercial-flights-exceed-75000/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:27.035Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:25.152Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 101, "resolution_data": { @@ -60315,7 +60473,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Futurists have long speculated that upon the arrival of AGI, the first sperintelligence will quickly follow. From I. J. Good, [writing in 1965](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0065245808604180),\nLet an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an ‘intelligence explosion,’ and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control.\nNick Bostrom wrote in his book Superintelligence (2014),\nNote that one could think that it will take quite a long time until machines reach the human baseline, or one might be agnostic about how long that will take, and yet have a strong view that once this happens, the further ascent into strong superintelligence will be very rapid.\nand categorized takeoff durations into three types:\n--- \n\"A slow takeoff is one that occurs over some long temporal interval, such as decades or centuries.\"\n--- \n\"A fast takeoff occurs over some short temporal interval, such as minutes, hours, or days.\"\n--- \n\"A moderate takeoff is one that occurs over some intermediary temporal interval, such as months or years.\"\nWhile it seems that most prominent thinkers are convinced that rapid technological and economic progress will follow the development of AGI (See [Paul Christiano](https://sideways-view.com/2018/02/24/takeoff-speeds/), [Robin Hanson](http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/aigrow.pdf), [Eliezer Yudkowsky](https://intelligence.org/files/IEM.pdf), [Ben Goertzel](http://multiverseaccordingtoben.blogspot.com/2011/01/hard-takeoff-hypothesis.html)), most AI researchers surveyed are not convinced. In 2016, AI Impacts [asked](https://aiimpacts.org/2016-expert-survey-on-progress-in-ai/) AI researchers,\nAssume that HLMI will exist at some point. How likely do you then think it is that the rate of global technological improvement will dramatically increase (e.g. by a factor of ten) as a result of machine intelligence:\nWithin two years of that point? ___% chance\nWithin thirty years of that point? ___% chance\nThe median answer was 20% for the two year estimate and 80% for the thirty year estimate.\nThis question is resolved based on the resolution of two other Metaculus questions. The date of resolution of when the first AGI is built is determined by [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3479/when-will-the-first-artificial-general-intelligence-system-be-devised-tested-and-publicly-known-of/). The date of resolution of when the first superintelligence is built is determined by the dates used to resolve [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3683/will-an-oracle-superintelligence-be-developed-before-a-general-superintelligence/) (whichever version of superintelligence was developed earlier, the date of development determines the date relevant to this question).\nIf no superintelligence is constructed before 2300, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:28.822Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:26.313Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 146, "resolution_data": { @@ -60345,9 +60503,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:30.817Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:27.513Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 229, + "numforecasts": 230, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-21T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -60364,7 +60522,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Air pollution is one of the world's [leading risk factors for death](https://ourworldindata.org/air-pollution), and research on air pollution consistently reveals [harmful effects](https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/8/12/21361498/climate-change-air-pollution-us-india-china-deaths). These health risks are concrentrated in middle-income countries like India and China due to pollution from industrialisation.\nOverall, the Global Burden of Disease study estimates that outdoor air pollution was resposible for 90 million DALYs in 2017, making up 3.6% of all DALYs in that year.\nWhile deaths overall from air pollution have been falling, this is purely because of the [decline in indoor air pollution](https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution); the number of deaths from outdoor air pollution has been increasing slowly over the last 20 years.\nHow many DALYs will be estimated to be caused by outdoor air pollution in 2030?\nResolution will be by the [Global Burden of Disease Study](http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool), by adding the figures for the risks 'Ambient ozone pollution' and 'Ambient particulate matter pollution', or a similar reliable dataset if the IHME ceases to publish global disease figures.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:32.666Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:29.647Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 45, "resolution_data": { @@ -60394,7 +60552,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:36.535Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:30.857Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -60413,7 +60571,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This is a variation on [an older question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4328/will-a-total-sum-amounting-to-at-least-10-of-the-money-in-all-us-dafs-be-expropriated-by-2100/), with different wording to attempt to illuminate an alternative perspective.\nA [donor-advised fund](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donor-advised_fund) (DAF) is \"a charitable giving vehicle administered by a public charity created to manage charitable donations on behalf of organizations, families, or individuals.\" The sponsoring organization of a fund—often a subsidiary of a brokerage firm such as [Fidelity Charitable](https://www.fidelitycharitable.org/) or [Schwab Charitable](https://www.schwabcharitable.org/public/charitable/home)—is a 501(c)(3) registered charity that accepts tax-deductible donations from the creator of the DAF. The creator can then make grant recommendations to the sponsoring organization.\nSponsoring organizations legally own any donated money, and have no obligation to abide by grant recommendations. There have been cases in the past of DAFs refusing to use donated money as directed[1] or using donated money for its own benefit. To my knowledge, no large reputable DAF has ever done this.\nWhat percentage of money held in all US DAFs will be expropriated by 2100?\nFunds are considered expropriated if:\n---The DAF refuses to make a grant recommendation, insofar as the grant recommendation is legal. \n---The DAF spends donated money on purposes other than a donor's recommendation, not including ordinary account expenses[2]. \n---The DAF begins charging unreasonable expenses (e.g., a 5% annual fee). \n---An outside party, such as the US government, seizes control of all or a substantial portion of the money (including by taxation). \nThe following situations do not qualify as expropriation:\n---The US government imposes a distribution requirement, such as the 5% annual distribution requirement that foundations must follow. \n---The DAF refuses to abide by a grant recommendation because it legally cannot, e.g., because the would-be grant recipient is not a 501(c)(3). \n---The DAF forcibly closes (e.g., due to Fidelity Charitable going bankrupt), but lets donors decide how to grant all remaining money. \n[1] Article is paywalled, but the gist is that the Jewish Community Foundation of Los Angeles refused to comply with a donor's request to donate to a charity supporting Palestine.\n[2] At present, Fidelity Charitable charges a 0.6% annual fee. Most other DAFs charge similar fees.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:38.247Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:32.132Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 29, "resolution_data": { @@ -60432,9 +60590,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\nCIAB's report from Q2 2020 states that:\n\"The average premium price increase for all-sized accounts broke double digits in Q2 2020, at 10.8%, compared to 9.3% in Q1 and 7.5% in Q4 2019.\"\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2022?\n\nResolution Criteria\n===================\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2022.\nA question for Q1 2021 can be found [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4705/what-will-be-the-average-percentage-change-in-property-and-casualty-insurance-premiums-in-q1-2021/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:39.995Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:33.336Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 27, + "numforecasts": 28, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-20T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -60451,7 +60609,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon),\nThe marathon is a long-distance race with an official distance of 42.195 kilometres (26 miles 385 yards), usually run as a road race. The event was instituted in commemoration of the fabled run of the Greek soldier Pheidippides, a messenger from the Battle of Marathon to Athens, who reported the victory. The marathon can be completed by running or with a run/walk strategy.\nThe best time recognized by the International Association of Athletics Federations (IAAF) is 2:01:39, or 7299 seconds, completed by Kenyan runner [Eliud Kipchoge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliud_Kipchoge) in 2018. However, Guinness World Records recognizes [another run](https://www.guinnessworldrecords.com/world-records/595048-fastest-marathon-distance-male) from Eliud Kipchoge in which he completed a marathon in 1:59:40 or 7180 seconds as part of the [Ineos 1:59 Challenge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ineos_1:59_Challenge). A [1991 paper](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/2022559/) hypothesized that the fastest a human could possibly run a marathon was 1:57:58 or 7078 seconds.\nThese two Metaculus questions are relevant:\n[Will a 2-hour marathon be run in 2017?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/434/will-a-2-hour-marathon-be-run-in-2017/)\n[Will someone run a marathon in less than 2 hours (per IAAF rules) by 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1373/will-someone-run-a-marathon-in-less-than-2-hours-per-iaaf-rules-by-2023/)\nAlso see [this Wikipedia article on Marathon world record progression](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marathon_world_record_progression)\nThis question asks, what will be the best marathon time completed by a human before 2035, in seconds (rounded to the nearest second), according to Guinness World Records?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:41.762Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:34.601Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -60470,7 +60628,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Background\n==========\n\nAs new electric vehicle models enter the market with increasing ranges and falling prices, consumer interest is rising. We are tracking this consumer interest and general electric vehicle adoption through the number of charging stations available in the top ten states after California. We’ve selected cities in these states outside of the core areas of EV infrastructure and development, usually the largest metropolitan places, to observe general trends throughout the rest of the state. \nOrange County, FL hosts the second largest number of public charging locations ([200](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida)) in the state of Florida, after Miami. Over 75% ([165](https://www.libertyplugins.com/public-ev-charging-stations/florida/orange-county)) of those chargers reside in Orlando, the largest city in Orange County. However, according to [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of charging locations across the United States, none of those locations have the option for DC Fast charging. \n[DC Fast charging](https://afdc.energy.gov/fuels/electricity_infrastructure.html#:~:text=As%20of%202020%2C%20over%2015%2C%20CHAdeMO%2C%20or%20Tesla.), also known as level three charging, can provide up to 480 V of energy directly into the battery of an electric vehicle, significantly reducing charging time. Most electric vehicles can recharge [80% of their battery](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) power in just under an hour using DC fast chargers. This makes them the perfect choice for charging infrastructure across public and private short term parking lots. AC, or level 2, charging requires the car to convert the energy into a direct current for the battery and can take [4 to 12 hours](https://evsafecharge.com/dc-fast-charging-explained/) to charge the battery fully. This is currently the most predominant charging technology across America. \nHowever, many people running errands rarely stay parked in the same place for enough time to warrant plugging their vehicle into the level 2 chargers provided in some parking lots. DC chargers make up only 15% of the current charging infrastructure across the country, and could provide more accessible charging capabilities for electric vehicle drivers if properly developed. \nCurrently, Orlando boasts a fleet of [5,375 electric vehicles](https://www.atlasevhub.com/materials/state-ev-registration-data/), including battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, within the city limits. With large public spaces like malls, hospitals, and universities, there exist many opportunities for charging infrastructure development. Main attractions in Orlando include Disney World, and all subsidiary parks and locations, Orlando International Airport, Nemours Children's Hospital and the Orlando VA Hospital, as well as the Orlando Science Center.\nThe Floridian government announced an [$8.6 million investment](https://www.flgov.com/2020/07/10/governor-ron-desantis-announces-next-steps-to-strengthen-floridas-electric-vehicle-infrastructure/) to strengthen their electric vehicle infrastructure within the state in July 2020 as part of their [Electric Vehicle Roadmap plan](https://www.fdacs.gov/Energy/Florida-Electric-Vehicle-Roadmap). They plan to expand charging stations by 50% across the most traveled roads and cities across Florida.\nHow many DC charging stations will Orlando, FL have by the end 2021?\n\nResolution Criteria:\n====================\n\nResolution criteria will be provided through [ChargePoint’s map](https://na.chargepoint.com/charge_point) of electric vehicle charging locations. By entering the search words “Orlando, FL, USA” and limiting the selection of location to Level 3 charging units, including CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla chargers. Individual charging stations will appear on the right side of the map, and will list the city they reside in, as well as appearing on the map with the number of stations per location. The number of outlets will not be used to ascertain the resolution because they are not offered on the ChargePoint map. Make sure to check the city specifically when counting the total number of stations offered within city limits.\nUnfortunately, data on specific charging level stations is difficult to find, which makes using maps like those provided through [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/find/nearest) and ChargePoint necessary in determining specific aspects of charging infrastructure development. If Metaculus admins and users feel that by the time of this resolution, data from this site is difficult to ascertain and there are better options provided through either independent or government sources, then the resolution will be provided through those sources or the question will resolve ambiguously. \n\nData:\n=====\n\nData on the number of total charging stations and outlets at each charging level for every state state can be found [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/states), but is not available at the country or city level for which this question requires. \nHistorical data is difficult to find and configure as many sites constantly update their numbers, however, by recording current numbers on a spreadsheet at a set interval of time periods, trends in development should begin to show.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:43.489Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:35.781Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -60489,7 +60647,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Rejuvenation Roadmap](https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/) is a curated database, which\naims to compile the most promising [anti-aging] therapies and technologies in development and chart their progress in one easy to read format.\nAs of writing, it lists 42 technologies, of which several aim to provide effective anti-aging effects.\nIf ten of the technologies listed in the roadmap as it was on January 7th, 2020 ([as archived here](https://web.archive.org/web/20200107004948/https://www.lifespan.io/road-maps/the-rejuvenation-roadmap/)) are released, then this question resolves to the date on which the tenth technology was marked released.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if:\n---The roadmap is no longer maintained, or changes form in a way that is not compatible with this question (as judged by a Metaculus admin). \n---The archive of the roadmap becomes unavailable. \n---Enough of the concerned technologies are abandoned that this question cannot resolve positively anymore. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:48.870Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:37.581Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -60508,7 +60666,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe miniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, at 2024-12-14 in accuracy amongst models not trained on additional data?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on miniImageNet up until 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on only the miniImageNet's data—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2024-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:50.739Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:38.865Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { @@ -60527,7 +60685,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Electric vehicles are notoriously expensive, a reason that often pushes the average consumer to buy combustion engine automobiles or the cheaper hybrid options. A major reason for the high pricing points of EVs are the lithium-ion batteries which fuel them. [51% of the cost of an electric vehicle resides in its powertrain](https://insideevs.com/features/396979/how-much-powertrain-cost-ev/), which includes the car’s battery, controllers, inverters, and transmission equipment. \nWith new [announcements from Tesla’s battery day](https://insideevs.com/news/446245/tesla-slide-25000-car-lfp-batteries/), and a publicized shift to the use and production of lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFPs) and high nickel batteries, electric vehicles are predicted to see their production costs fall, thereby bringing down the overall market price.\nLow prices could dramatically impact consumer adoption and increase EV production, which could help change the tide of carbon emissions in protecting the environment. Just in the United States, if everyone drove an electric vehicle, carbon emissions would [drop around 8.4%](https://insh.world/tech/what-if-all-cars-were-electric/#:~:text=Electric%20cars%20are%204%2Dtimes,would%20immediately%20drop%20by%208.4%25.). \nIt is possible to ascertain both producer dynamics in the market and competition levels, as well as consumer preferences with regards to EV criteria by looking at sales differences between models on the market. This could help greatly with understanding both the industry as it grows, and what EV factors influence greater adoption levels by consumers.\nWhat will be the differential in sales between the most-sold and second most-sold consumer electric vehicles in America in 2021?\nResolution criteria for the most-sold models will come from the US Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10567) which provides an infographic with the number of sale deliveries of each light-duty, electric model by company. In 2019 the most sold vehicle was Tesla Model 3 with 154,840 vehicles sold in the US, followed by the Prius PHEV at 23,630. The price differential between these two models is great (over $11,000 starting price). In 2017, the Tesla Model S sold 26,500 which was followed by the Chevy Bolt with 23,297, a relatively small difference (with an average price difference of over $60,000). Here we can see that there is something about the Tesla Model 3, and/or the changing industry dynamics over time, that is greatly affecting adoption. We also see a dramatic reduction in price difference between the offerings, perhaps due to battery costs. If data is no longer provided, then this question will resolve ambiguously. \nPrice data was taken using starting price levels for each model by the year it was produced using a google search. Prices are not adjusted for subsidies, and approximations serve well in an estimation of general price difference.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:52.709Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:40.033Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 101, "resolution_data": { @@ -60546,7 +60704,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nObject detection is the task of detecting instances of objects of a certain class within an image.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Object Detection Performance Index:\nObject detection on: [COCO test](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco), [COCO minival](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival), [CrowdHuman (full body)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/object-detection-on-coco-minival). 3D object detection on: [KITTI Cars Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-moderate), [KITTI Cars Easy](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-easy), [KITTI Cars Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cars-hard), [KITTI Cyclists Hard](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-cyclists-hard), [KITTI Pedestrians Moderate](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-kitti-pedestrians), [SUN-RGBD val](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/3d-object-detection-on-sun-rgbd-val), [Real-time object detection on COCO](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/real-time-object-detection-on-coco), and [Weakly Supervised object detection on Pascal VOC 2007](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/weakly-supervised-object-detection-on-pascal-1).\nHistorical data on the [Object Detection Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1q1elx7DnblyQ9K9hoJiF8auiB-f6sErreWzjIecyq50/edit?usp=sharing).\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Object Detection Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nFor the purpose of the index, error is calculated as 1-(average precision)/100. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:54.491Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:41.195Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 198, "resolution_data": { @@ -60576,9 +60734,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:56.363Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:42.388Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 157, + "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-07-03T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -60606,9 +60764,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:50:58.140Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:43.631Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 144, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -60625,7 +60783,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \n[SuperGLUE](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/) [(Wang et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) is a benchmark for evaluating general-purpose language understanding systems. The set of eight tasks in the benchmark emphasises diverse task formats and low-data training data tasks, with nearly half the tasks having fewer than 1k examples and all but one of the tasks having fewer than 10k examples.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is T5: Text-To-Text Transfer Transformer [(Raffel et al., 2019)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.10683), which achieves an average score 89.3, just below the human baseline of 89.8\nThe SuperGLUE leaderboard may be accessed [here](https://super.gluebenchmark.com/leaderboard).\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on SuperGLUE be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved on SuperGLUE up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT amongst models trained on any number training set(s). Performance is given in a \"score\", which is the average of various performance metrics (see [Wang et al., 2019](https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.00537) for more details).\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:00.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:45.039Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 266, "resolution_data": { @@ -60644,7 +60802,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For more than 100 years, machines have been replacing human physical labor, especially in jobs requiring great physical strength, or endurance, or extremely repetitive and well-defined motions. This has arguably accelerated in recent decades, and there is a current growing push for \"[lights out manufacturing](http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB1037666065632825628),\" i.e. have no light-requiring humans in-the-loop.\nIt has proven harder to create robots that can substitute for the fine-grained dexterity and motor control of many physical tasks, especially those where the action must be in response to, or dictated by, visual or verbal information. Robots are, however, continually improving, and it is not hard to extrapolate to a time when most non-intellectual factory-type jobs can be done by autonomous systems that can be directly \"slotted in\" for a human worker. As a benchmark for the type of visual and manual processing required, we ask:\nWhen will a robot exist that is able to completely assemble a generic Lego set? \nFor positive resolution, the system must be able to assemble on demand multiple possible production Lego sets of 50+ pieces. The box and bags may be open but the robot must turn the pages on the direction set. Credible video or report must exist of this being done. The robot can be a prototype rather than production model. Resolution can also be achieved by the existence of a robot that would, as judged by a robotics expert, very clearly be capable of assembling a Lego set.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:02.068Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:46.474Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 299, "resolution_data": { @@ -60663,7 +60821,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Zach Goldberg](https://twitter.com/ZachG932) has done research [showing the steep rise in Woke terms used in US media](https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/media-great-racial-awakening). These are terms like racism, privilege, whiteness and so on. These have shown a marked increase since about 2011, called [the great awokening](https://quillette.com/2020/06/22/toward-a-new-cultural-nationalism/). There doesn't not yet seem to be any end to this rise, but presumably it will end at some point.\nResolved: When will the use of Woke terms in US elite media top?\n---These are defined as part of Zach Goldberg's Woke index which includes [the following words](https://imgur.com/KtoqNv9). \n---The top of the curve is defined locally as January 1st of the year when both adjacent years shows a lower frequency of the woke words. I.e., it is the year prior to the first decline. This may be a local maximum in the longer term, but we can't know that. \n---The question resolves as the maximum over the 2020 to 2035 period (inclusive) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:04.089Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:48.345Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 26, "resolution_data": { @@ -60693,7 +60851,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:08.041Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:49.571Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -60723,7 +60881,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:09.959Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:50.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 176, "resolution_data": { @@ -60742,7 +60900,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In the past two months, three distinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern have been detected and are now the subject of [intense study](https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/vaccine-20-moderna-and-other-companies-plan-tweaks-would-protect-against-new): B.1.1.7, B.1.351, and P.1. B.1.1.7 is thought to have emerged in the UK in November 2020 and is likely [significantly more transmissible](https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/uk-novel-variant.html) than preexisting variants of SARS-CoV-2. B.1.351 was first detected in South Africa in October 2020 and seems to have an ability to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250224v1) and [reduce the efficacy](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/01/29/jj-and-novavax-data) of vaccines in development. P.1 was first detected in Brazil in January 2020 and, like B.1.351, seems like it is able to [escape the neutralizing antibody response elicited by previous infection](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext). All three of these variants have a [S:N501 mutation](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) that differentiates them from other variants.\nAccording to data from the recently launched [CoVariants.org](https://covariants.org/), the three variants in question — B.1.1.7, B.1.351, P.1 — are [steadily increasing as a proportion of overall sequenced SARS-CoV-2 cases in the US](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). \nThe proportion of S:N501 among all sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database in the US for the week of 2021-01-11 (2021-01-11 to 2021-01-17, inclusive) was [0.05, or 5%](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). Note that data for previous weeks are backfilled with sequences uploaded at later dates, so these percentages might change slightly over time — in other words, there is a lag between sequence collection and sequence upload.\nIn response to an increased incidence of S:N501 variants, public health officials may promote mitigation measures, further focus on contact tracing, and increase the rate of genomic sequencing.\nData sources and more information:\n---[Distribution of S:N501 per country](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501) \n---[CoVariants](https://covariants.org/) \n---[US COVID-19 Cases Caused by Variants](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html) \n---[Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 Lineage — United States, December 29, 2020–January 12, 2021](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm) \n---The Global Initiative on Sharing Avian Influenza Data (GISAID) website - [https://www.gisaid.org/](https://www.gisaid.org/) \n---Next Strain - [https://nextstrain.org/](https://nextstrain.org/) \n---[S gene dropout patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests suggest spread of the H69del/V70del mutation in the US](https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.12.24.20248814v1.full.pdf) \n---[Helix SARS-CoV-2 Viral Sequencing Trends](https://www.helix.com/pages/helix-covid-19-surveillance-dashboard) \nWhat will be the percent of S:N501 sequences in the U.S. among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted to the GISAID database of genetic sequences between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive)?\nThis question will resolve as the percentage of US S:N501 sequences among all positive SARS-CoV-2 samples submitted for genomic sequencing to the GISAID database between 2021-03-29 and 2021-04-04 (inclusive), as displayed on the \"Distribution of S:N501 per country\" plot on following website: [https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501](https://covariants.org/variants/S.N501). This website pulls data from GISAID and makes it publicly accessible. This percentage will be accessed no sooner than 2021-04-12.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:11.870Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:52.281Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 103, "resolution_data": { @@ -60772,9 +60930,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:14.157Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:53.503Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 151, + "numforecasts": 152, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-04-04T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -60802,7 +60960,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:15.953Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:55.692Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -60832,7 +60990,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:19.401Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:40:57.148Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -60851,7 +61009,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "While apparently half the world waits for the adoption of cryptocurrencies there’s been an ongoing proliferation of cashless money transfer, mediated by apps and QR-codes. \nElectronic banking really established itself in the 1990s, and today [more than half of US citizens](https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/online-mobile-banking.php) use digital banking. Smarthphones enable quick transactions, money leaving and arriving in respective accounts in seconds. Sweden’s [Swish](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swish_(payment)) for instance is used by more than half of the population, mostly for transfers that would otherwise use cash. [Cash now only accounts for less than 20% of their transactions in stores](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-41095004).\nBut there are arguments for the continuation of cash as well: One may not want to have certain acquisitions linked to one’s account, be they of political, sexual, or altogether different nature. The elderly and poor often don’t have the means or technical aptitude to adapt to this new aspect either. On the gripping hand, a purely digital currency would be a juicy target for hacks and exploits and would therefore have to be built with such attempts in mind.\nThe currently foremost nation in this field appears to be South Korea with [their ongoing trial to reduce coins](https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-39639226), and [according to researchers](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/11/we-dont-take-cash-is-this-the-future-of-money.html?&qsearchterm=south%20korea%20to%20kill%20the%20coin) there’s a good chance the last Swedish banknote will be handed in by 2030.\nWhen will the world see the first cashless society?\nResolves when a currency zone discontinues issuing bank notes and coins as legal tender, by adopting or converting to a purely digital currency. For the purposes of this question cash may still be accepted or exchanged on legacy grounds, as could novelty cash like commemorative coins.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:23.227Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:00.545Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 151, "resolution_data": { @@ -60881,7 +61039,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:26.674Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:01.796Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 357, "resolution_data": { @@ -60900,7 +61058,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From the [South China Morning Post](https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/3103054/freezing-bodies-reanimation-china-and-why-countrys),\nThe Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is the only cryonics research centre in China and one of only four such institutes in the world. The centres provide cryonic suspension: preserving bodies at extremely low temperatures with the hope of one day “reviving” them. But Yinfeng’s research goes further, and has the potential to revolutionise organ transplant, body-part reattachment and other medical treatments.\nAccording to the Oregon Cryonics page on [terminology](http://www.oregoncryo.com/terminology.html), \nWe refer to a body or brain that we are trying to preserve as a patient.\nAs of September 27th 2020, the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute is storing 10 patients.\nHow many patients will the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute report by 2026?\nThis question resolves as the number of patients stored by the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute as of the most recent media or official report published before 2026. If no such report is published after or during 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.\nIn case the organization changes its name, this question resolves according to the new organization, which is its successor. In the case the Shandong Yinfeng Life Science Research Institute goes bankrupt or ceases to exist, this question resolves as the number of patients they stored before they stopped existing, if a report was published after or during 2024.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:28.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:03.041Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { @@ -60930,7 +61088,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:30.218Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:04.352Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 124, "resolution_data": { @@ -60949,7 +61107,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nAccording to a [discussion post by one of the survey's architects](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms), the survey will be given out to professional philosophers in the English-speaking world: \nThe target population for the 2020 survey will probably be tenured/tenure-track/permanent faculty in BA-granting philosophy departments (or the equivalent) in the English-speaking world (more precisely, in the so-called Anglosphere of US, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK).\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" support for open borders, as opposed to some restrictions, heavy restrictions. This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:32.207Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:05.557Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -60979,7 +61137,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:36.006Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:07.552Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 181, "resolution_data": { @@ -61009,7 +61167,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:41.616Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:10.561Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -61028,9 +61186,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Oil, arguably one of most important commodities in the world, is vital for understanding the global economy. The price for any commodity is driven through the intersection between consumer demand and production supply, so we can effectively use the price of oil to understand complications in consumer/producer dynamics. \nWe use oil for everything; for transportation, industry, agricultural, and residential needs. The transportation industry is the greatest consumer of oil by far, at [68%](https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php) use in all transportation needs for the US and [56% globally](https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/oil-consumption).\nHowever, with the onset of the novel coronavirus pandemic in 2020, global transportation demand has fallen as fewer people travel both domestically and abroad. An oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia during 2020 also caused production stressors. These supply and demand shocks significantly dropped the price of US oil to under $40/barrel in early September 2020. \nThe US Energy Information Association (EIA) [has published its 2021 predictions](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/#:~:text=EIA%20expects%20production%20to%20begin,especially%20in%20the%20Permian%20region.):\n“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that Brent prices will average $49/b in 2021, up from an expected average of $43/b in the fourth quarter of 2020. The forecast for higher crude oil prices next year reflects EIA's expectation that while inventories will remain high, they will decline with rising global oil demand and restrained OPEC+ oil production. EIA forecasts Brent prices will average $47/b in the first quarter of 2021 and rise to an average of $50/b by the fourth quarter.”\nWhat will be the WTI oil price in December 2021?\nResolution criteria for this question will be obtained from the Federal Reserve and will represent the [global price of WTI crude oil](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POILWTIUSDM) for the month of December 2021. Data is recorded in US Dollars and is not seasonally adjusted. Data can be retrieved from 1990 onward, and formatted into spreadsheets.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:43.553Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:11.737Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 238, + "numforecasts": 239, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-12T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -61047,9 +61205,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nNuclear fusion would give us cheap and abundant energy. Energy is a $8.5 trillion energy industry. It also doesn't emit greenhouse gases (once built), and its residue has a half-life of a few hundred years (much less than nuclear fission). ([source](https://www.forbes.com/sites/walvanlierop/2019/08/21/fusion-energy-who-has-the-courage-to-take-it-to-market/#4eeac23957c7)) It's also safer as it seems the fusion reactor would be incapable of generating the dangerous runaway chain reactions that lead to a meltdown ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)).\nOn the other hand, \"fusion reactors have other serious problems that also afflict today's fission reactors, including neutron radiation damage and radioactive waste, potential tritium release, the burden on coolant resources, outsize operating costs, and increased risks of nuclear weapons proliferation\" ([source](https://thebulletin.org/2017/04/fusion-reactors-not-what-theyre-cracked-up-to-be/)). Also see: [Pure fusion weapon — Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pure_fusion_weapon).\n\nDefinition\n==========\n\n\"The fusion energy gain factor, usually expressed with the symbol Q, is the ratio of fusion power produced in a nuclear fusion reactor to the power required to maintain the plasma in steady state. The condition of Q = 1, when the power being released by the fusion reactions is equal to the required heating power, is referred to as breakeven, or in some sources, scientific breakeven.\nThe energy given off by the fusion reactions may be captured within the fuel, leading to self-heating. Most fusion reactions release at least some of their energy in a form that cannot be captured within the plasma, so a system at Q = 1 will cool without external heating. With typical fuels, self-heating in fusion reactors is not expected to match the external sources until at least Q = 5. If Q increases past this point, increasing self-heating eventually removes the need for external heating. At this point the reaction becomes self-sustaining, a condition called ignition. Ignition corresponds to infinite Q, and is generally regarded as highly desirable for practical reactor designs.\"\n(source: [Fusion energy gain factor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor))\n\nResolution criteria\n===================\n\nIf a relevant Wikipedia page states that a fusion reactor has reached ignition, and continues to state that for at least 10 months in a 12 months period, this question gets resolved with the date mentioned on Wikipedia. If Wikipedia isn't active anymore, a paper replicating the fusion reactor ignition will confirm the resolution as the date at which the first paper reported ignition.\n\nRelated questions\n=================\n\n---[When will the fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor reach a Q >= 1?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3726/when-will-the-fusion-energy-gain-factor-of-a-fusion-reactor-reach-a-q--1/) \n---[When will a private fusion company first report a yearly profit? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3725/when-will-a-nuclear-fusion-reactor-hit-an-economic-breakeven/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:47.944Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:13.528Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 45, + "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-30T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -61066,7 +61224,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK has [increased over the past 3 years](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/912781/2019_Table_1_New_STI_diagnoses_and_rates_in_England_by_gender.ods).\nHowever, it has been suggested that the Covid-19 pandemic [might affect the epidemiology of STIs](https://sti.bmj.com/content/early/2020/08/12/sextrans-2020-054543).\nHow will the number of sexually transmitted infections diagnoses in England change from 2019 to 2020, in percent?\nThe question will resolve according to the annual report published by the UK government. The report and data is most likely going to be found here: [Sexually transmitted infections (STIs): annual data tables](https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/sexually-transmitted-infections-stis-annual-data-tables) \nThis question will resolve specifically according to the \"% change 2019-2020\" for the row \"Total new STI diagnoses - total\". This total refers to the total percentage change, across both genders, in the numbers of all reported STIs.\nIf this data is no longer reported for 2020 or the methodology significantly changes, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:49.812Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:14.813Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 70, "resolution_data": { @@ -61096,7 +61254,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:51.830Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:16.046Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 426, "resolution_data": { @@ -61126,7 +61284,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:53.586Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:17.660Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 20, "resolution_data": { @@ -61156,7 +61314,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:55.313Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:18.858Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 144, "resolution_data": { @@ -61186,7 +61344,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:57.111Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:20.076Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 282, "resolution_data": { @@ -61205,7 +61363,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In July 1969, Neil Armstrong stepped out on to the lunar surface, and became the first human being to walk on the Moon.\nLess than four years later, In December 1972, Eugene Cernan stepped up into the Lunar Module, and at this writing no human being has walked on the Moon since.\nWhen will the next human being walk on the Moon? \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:51:59.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:21.549Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 321, "resolution_data": { @@ -61235,7 +61393,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:01.031Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:23.167Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 135, "resolution_data": { @@ -61265,7 +61423,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:02.923Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:25.149Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 51, "resolution_data": { @@ -61284,7 +61442,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to \"phone home\" even from its position [beyond the heliosheath](https://eyes.jpl.nasa.gov/eyes-on-voyager.html).\nHow we keep in touch with this little spacehip that could--currently 141 AUs away from us [and counting](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/), as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As [NASA explains](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/did-you-know/):\nThe sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.\nAlas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports:\nThe Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts’ electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. “These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,” she said. “Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.” The spacecrafts’ transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. “One day we’ll be looking for the signal and we won’t hear it anymore,” Dodd said.\nWhat will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including [this cool passage](https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-most-probable-fate-of-Voyagers-1-2):\nAbout [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don’t know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers’ current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voyager_Golden_Record), humanity’s message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants\nIn any event, what's your take? In what month and year will scientists receive the last credible signal from this amazing machine before it's lost forever to the void? \nQuestion will resolve to the time of the last signal received, after no signal has been received for one year.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:05.016Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:26.375Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 115, "resolution_data": { @@ -61303,7 +61461,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the inception of the field, the goal of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research has been to develop a machine-based system that can perform the same general-purpose reasoning and problem-solving tasks humans can. While computers have surpassed humans in many information-processing abilities, this \"general\" intelligence has remained elusive. \nAI, and particularly machine learning (ML), is advancing rapidly, with previously human-specific tasks such as image and speech recognition, translation and even driving, now being successfully tackled by narrow AI systems.\nBut there is a stunning diversity of opinion about when general AI may arrive, according to published expert surveys. For example [this study](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1706.06906.pdf) finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to \"High level machine intelligence\" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, [this survey](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1705.08807.pdf) finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below) ranging from 2040 to well past 2100. \nIt would be nice to tighten these probability intervals considerably, so we ask of the Metaculus community:\nWhen will the first AGI be first developed and demonstrated? \nOne issue is that AGI is rather difficult to precisely define. A separate question addresses a similar issue by asking about [human-machine intelligence parity](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/) in a particular adversarial test. Here we'd like a definition that connects more closely with established benchmarks for various capabilities; it also sets an arguably somewhat lower bar.\nFor these purposes we will thus define \"an artificial general intelligence\" as a single unified software system that can satisfy the following criteria, all easily completable by a typical college-educated human.\n--- \nAble to reliably pass a Turing test of the type that would win the [Loebner Silver Prize](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/73/will-the-silver-turing-test-be-passed-by-2026/). \n--- \nAble to score 90% or more on a robust version of the [Winograd Schema Challenge](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/644/what-will-be-the-best-score-in-the-20192020-winograd-schema-ai-challenge/), e.g. the [\"Winogrande\" challenge](https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10641) or comparable data set for which human performance is at 90+%\n--- \nBe able to score 75th percentile (as compared to the corresponding year's human students; this was a score of 600 in 2016) on all the full mathematics section of a circa-2015-2020 standard SAT exam, using just images of the exam pages and having less than ten SAT exams as part of the training data. (Training on other corpuses of math problems is fair game as long as they are arguably distinct from SAT exams.)\n--- \nBe able to learn the classic Atari game \"Montezuma's revenge\" (based on just visual inputs and standard controls) and explore all 24 rooms based on the equivalent of less than 100 hours of real-time play (see [closely-related question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/486/when-will-an-ai-achieve-competency-in-the-atari-classic-montezumas-revenge/).) \nBy \"unified\" we mean that the system is integrated enough that it can, for example, explain its reasoning on an SAT problem or Winograd schema question, or verbally report its progress and identify objects during videogame play. (This is not really meant to be an additional capability of \"introspection\" so much as a provision that the system not simply be cobbled together as a set of sub-systems specialized to tasks like the above, but rather a single system applicable to many problems.)\nResolution will be by direct demonstration of such a system achieving the above criteria, or by confident credible statement by its developers that an existing system is able to satisfy these criteria. In case of contention as to whether a given system satisfies the resolution criteria, a ruling will be made by a majority vote of the question author and two AI experts chosen in good faith by him. Resolution date will be the first date at which the system (subsequently judged to satisfy the criteria) and its capabilities are publicly described in a talk, press release, paper, or other report available to the general public.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:11.737Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:29.037Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 480, "resolution_data": { @@ -61333,7 +61491,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:13.757Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:30.286Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 104, "resolution_data": { @@ -61352,7 +61510,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Hill Climbing Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--hill-climbing). \n[arXiv](http://arxiv.org) is a repository of electronic preprints approved for posting after moderation, but not full peer review. It consists of scientific papers in the fields of mathematics, physics, astronomy, electrical engineering, computer science, quantitative biology, statistics, mathematical finance and economics, which can be accessed online. \nMany machine learning articles will be posted on arXiv before publication. In theoretical computer science and machine learning, over 60% of published papers have arXiv e-prints [(Sutton et al. 2017)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1710.05225.pdf).\nNatural language processing (NLP) combines linguistics and artificial intelligence to enable computer systems to understand, process or generate human or natural language input.\nHow many Natural Language Processing e-prints will be published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period?\nThis question resolves as the total number of Natural Language Processing e-prints published on arXiv over the 2021-01-14 to 2030-01-14 period (inclusive), as per the e-print's \"original submission date\".\nDetails of the search query\nFor the purpose of this question, Natural Language Processing e-prints published under Computer Science that are have the [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) category. Note that for the purpose of this question, the tag will be searched in \"all fields\". The query should include cross-listed papers (papers listed on other subjects besides Computer Science). The query [may be executed here](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first).\nThe [cs.CL](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=cs.cl&terms-0-field=all&classification-computer_science=y&classification-physics_archives=all&classification-include_cross_list=include&date-filter_by=all_dates&date-year=&date-from_date=&date-to_date=&date-date_type=submitted_date_first&abstracts=show&size=50&order=-announced_date_first) cross-list category category, [according to arXiv](https://arxiv.org/corr/subjectclasses):\nCovers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.\nRunning this query for previous years gives:\n---2,397 for the calendar year 2017 \n---3,726 for the calendar year 2018 \n---5,390 for the calendar year 2019 \n---7,128 for the calendar year 2020 \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:15.526Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:31.518Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -61371,7 +61529,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Long term population development is of great importance in questions about the far future. The United Nations write in a [report from 2004](https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/research/researchcentres/csgr/green/foresight/demography/united_nations_world_population_to_2300.pdf):\nIn these projections, world population peaks at 9.22 billion in 2075. Population therefore grows slightly beyond the level of 8.92 billion projected for 2050 in the 2002 Revision, on which these projections are based. However, after reaching its maximum, world population declines slightly and then resumes increasing, slowly, to reach a level of 8.97 billion by 2300, not much different from the projected 2050 figure.\nIn this question, it is asked: How many biological humans will be alive on the 31st of December 2300, conditional on there being more than 500M?\nThe resolution comes from the latest report by the United Nations (or a comparable organisation representing the human species) before january 16th, 2300. If the UN shall no longer exist, or no longer measure human population by the resolution date, resolution shall be by data from what the Metaculus administration judges to be the most accurate data-source. The number should include all humans alive, not only humans living on planet earth.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if there are less than 500M humans alive at the time of resolution.\nFor these purposes we'll define humans as biological creatures who have as their ancestors – via a chain of live births from mothers – circa 2000 humans OR who could mate with circa 2000 humans to produce viable offspring. (So AIs, ems, genetically engineered beings of a different species brought up in artificial wombs, etc. would not count.)\nRelated questions:\n---[Will the world population increase every year for the next decade?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/124/will-the-world-population-increase-every-year-for-the-next-decade/) \n---[World Population in 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/587/world-population-in-2100/) \n---[Will humans go extinct by 2100?](Will humans go extinct by 2100?) \n---[When will the last member of our species, homo sapiens, be born?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1088/when-will-the-last-member-of-our-species-homo-sapiens-be-born/) \n---[Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:17.476Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:32.861Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 135, "resolution_data": { @@ -61390,7 +61548,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The price of clean meat has fallen [from $330,000/pound in 2013](https://www.fastcompany.com/3044572/the-325000-lab-grown-hamburger-now-costs-less-than-12) to [around $800 in 2018](http://jlm-biocity.org/future-meat-technologies-raises-2-2-million-lab-grown-meat/), and is [expected to fall even further](https://vegnews.com/2019/7/price-of-lab-grown-meat-to-plummet-from-280000-to-10-per-patty-by-2021). In 2017, [Mark Post](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Post), chief science officer at Mosa Meat, [predicted the following in 2017](https://labiotech.eu/interviews/interview-mark-post-cultured-meat/):\nFor small-scale, somewhat expensive products, most companies will have cultured meat products on the market in 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021). It will probably take another 3–4 years (i.e., 2023–2025) for the price to come down to the level where it’s acceptable for the broader public.\nIn 2015, \"restaurant\" [Bistro in Vitro](http://bistro-invitro.com/en/bistro-invitro/) offers virtual diners \"food for thought\" by allowing customers to create their own three-course meal from a range of dishes that could one day be created using \"in vitro\" meat. Unfortunately, the earliest reservation the website offers is for November 2029, but could we get one sooner?\nWhen will a restaurant first serve clean-meat containing products with ≥20% clean meat, at $3 per 100 grams or cheaper?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when a restaurant, in any country, offers a clean meat containing product (beef, poultry, pork or fish) for consumption that contains at least 20% clean meat by weight. The product must exceed 50 grams in weight, so that it contains at least 8 grams of clean meat. The restaurant must be open to the general public in that a member of the public must be able to enter the establishment (though possibly requiring a reservation), and order the clean meat product. The restaurant must have served costumers for at least a year -- hence \"pop-up\" restaurants that exist for a very short amount of time (such as those at a convention like [CES](https://www.ces.tech/)) do not count toward resolution. The clean meat containing product product must cost less than $3 per 100 grams. Samples given out for free don't count. \nIf the clean meat is served as a dish with additional ingredients, an additional allowance of $5 is made for the price of the additional ingredients. For example, a quarter pound of a burger (~113,4 grams) that is 50% clean meat and 50% plant-based meat sold at any price below $8.41 would count toward positive resolution (as this is $3×1.134+$5=$8.41).\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from the restaurant's online listing, credible media reports, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nPrices are to be adjusted using a CPI commonly used in which the clean meat product is sold. If the clean meat product is not sold in the United States, the price is to be converted using the exchange rate listed on Google Finance at the time the question resolves.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:19.302Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:35.013Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -61420,7 +61578,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:23.458Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:36.191Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 259, "resolution_data": { @@ -61450,9 +61608,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:25.407Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:37.414Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 295, + "numforecasts": 296, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-02-20T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -61469,7 +61627,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average number of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s maximum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:27.308Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:38.808Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 21, "resolution_data": { @@ -61488,9 +61646,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years.\nAlternative meat product company valuations can take off quickly, as illustrated by the example of Beyond Meat, which within 10 years has grown its market capitalisation [beyond $10bn](https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=beyond+meat+market+cap&meta=).\nWhen will the first clean meat company be valued at ≥ $1bn, in 2019 prices?\nResolution\nPositive resolution requires that, within six months after the clean meat company reaching the nominal $1bn valuation, at least three articles are published by credible media organisations in which the company is described as a clean-meat company, using the words \"clean meat\", \"cultivated meat\", \"cultured meat\" or \"in-vitro meat\", \"cell-based meat\", or any variations where \"meat\" is replaced with a specific meat (e.g. \"clean beef\"), or any other term that describe meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body, or accurate translations in case the reporting is not in English. An example of a qualifying description is the headline \"clean meat company XYZ achieves unicorn status with $1bn dollar valuation\". \nThe article should demonstrate that the term \"clean meat\" (or suitable synonyms) is used to refer meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture. Hence, an article in which the term \"clean meat\" is mistakenly used to refer other products, such as plant-based meat (i.e. products made using plant and other non-animal products to look, taste, and feel like meat products) would not be a qualifying report.\nAdditionally, in the fiscal year in which it reaches the $1bn valuation, the company must generate less than 20% of its valuation in revenue from the sale of products other than clean meat related products, or clean meat related intellectual property. \nCompany valuation thresholds are here given by 2019 prices, and future valuations will be adjusted for inflation using a commonly used country-specific CPI.\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How many months till at least three, billion dollar clean meat valuations after the first such company is first valued at ≥ $1bn?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3062/how-many-months-till-at-least-three-billion-dollar-clean-meat-valuations-after-the-first-such-company-is-first-valued-at--1bn/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean meat company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3058/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-meat-company/)\n[When will there be a publicly traded clean fish company?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3059/when-will-there-be-a-publicly-listed-clean-fish-company/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:29.149Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:40.082Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 132, + "numforecasts": 134, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-09-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -61501,36 +61659,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.26, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.74, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:30.985Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 204, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the mean year-over-year growth rate of the sum of teraflops in the TOP500 decline each 3-year period from 2025 to 2034?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3361/will-the-mean-year-over-year-growth-rate-of-the-sum-of-teraflops-in-the-top500-decline-each-3-year-period-from-2025-to-2034/", @@ -61548,7 +61676,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:34.455Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:42.505Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -61561,13 +61689,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "No single disease currently exists that combines the worst-case levels of transmissibility, lethality, resistance to therapies, and global reach. But we know that the worst-case attributes can be realized independently. For example, some diseases exhibit nearly a 100% case fatality ratio in the absence of treatment, such as rabies or septicemic plague. The 1918 flu [has a track record of spreading to virtually every human community worldwide](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/2021692). Chickenpox and HSV-1, [can reportedly reach over 95% of a given population](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18080353).\nThe past decades have seen rapid advances in biotechnology, in part due to the falling costs of gene sequencing and synthesis. Improvements in ease-of-use of certain specific kinds of biotechnology bring increased concerns about biological risks. Gene synthesisers have the capacity to turn digital sequence data into physical genetic sequences, enabling individuals to create viruses from digital files ([as was done with the 1918 Spanish Flu virus](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16210530)).\nThe implications of these technologies are worrying, especially given the track record of state-run bioweapon research applying cutting-edge science and technology to design pathogens that are more virulent, more resistant to therapies, harder to diagnose and treat than those in nature.\nWhile there is no evidence of state-run bioweapons programs directly attempting to develop or deploy bioweapons that would pose an catastrophic risk, the logic of deterrence and mutually assured destruction could create such incentives, especially in a more unstable political climate, or following a breakdown of the [Biological Weapons Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_Weapons_Convention).\nDeliberate or accidental [gene drives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gene_drive) that might not directly target human populations may also pose major risks. There are broadly [three features that give rise to the ecological risk of gene drives](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK379271/):\n(i) a gene drive is passed on from one generation to the next at a rate greater than occurs naturally; (ii) a gene drive construct can have effects on other parts of the organism's genome beyond the target; and (iii) gene-drive modified organisms are designed to spread, along with their effects, into the larger environment. \n[Examples of such unanticipated consequences](https://research.ncsu.edu/ges/files/2017/11/jri-si-hayes-identifying-detecting-adverse-ecological-outcomes-associated-release-gene-drive-modified-organisms-2018.pdf) that could rapidly proliferate the ecosystem are:\n---New phenotypes with a different (possibly increased) capacity to spread diseases or pathogens, \n---Cascading effects on food web caused by decrease in abundance of predators leading to possible loss of ecosystem services, \n---The gene drive being acquired by, and spreads within, non-target species (possibly humans), leading to suppression or modification of the nontarget species. \nFinally, accidents. [A report by Gryphon Scientific, Risk and Benefit Analysis of Gain of Function Research](http://www.gryphonscientific.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/Final-Gain-of-Function-Risk-Benefit-Analysis-Report-12.14.2015.pdf), has laid out a detailed risk assessments of potentially pandemic pathogen research, suggesting that the annual probability of a global pandemic resulting from an accident with this type of research in the United States is 0.002% to 0.1%. Since similar research is done outside of the United States, in potentially more accident-prone labs, the world seems to be exposed to worryingly high level of risk from accidental outbreaks ([which some have estimated to be around 0.016% to 0.8% chance of a pandemic each year](https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1089/hs.2017.0028)).\n[In the headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/), we defined a global catastrophe as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. \nIf a global catastrophe happens before 2100, will it be principally due to the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms?\nThe question resolves positively if a global biotechnology catastrophe occurs resulting from the deployment biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms (including viruses) that claims at least 10% in any period of 5 years or less before 2100, and resolves as ambiguous if no global catastrophe occurs. If the failure-mode is less direct, such as through indirect ecological effects of gene drives, the catastrophe must be generally believed very unlikely in a counterfactual world with little or no biotechnological interventions but otherwise similar to ours.\nThis question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. Please have a look at the other questions and contribute your insights, analyses, and factorizations, especially on the questions on what might happen if a global catastrophe occurs (for which we are currently short on predictions):\n1-- \n[If a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n2-- \n[If an artificial intelligence catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2513/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n3-- \n[If a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1585/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-nuclear-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/)\n4-- \n[If a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the human population decline by 95% or more?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1604/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-climate-disaster-occurs-by-2100-will-the-earths-human-population-decline-by-95-or-more/)\nAlso, please check out our questions on whether a global catastrophe will occur by 2100, and if so, which?:\n5-- \n[By 2100 will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-by-2100-will-the-human-population-decrease-by-at-least-10-during-any-period-of-5-years/)\n6-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to either human-made climate change or geoengineering?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1500/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-either-human-made-climate-change-or-geoengineering/)\n7-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to a nanotechnology failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1501/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nanotechnology-failure-mode/)\n8-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to nuclear war?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)\n9-- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/)\n10- \n[Will such a catastrophe be due to biotechnology or bioengineered organisms?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/)\nAll results [are analysed here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-results-so-far/), and will be updated periodically.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.26, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.74, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:43.696Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 205, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2100-01-01T23:59:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2100-06-16T22:59:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3522/when-will-the-doomsday-clock-reach-midnight/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Doomsday Clock](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/) is a symbol which represents the likelihood of a anthropogenic global catastrophe. The clock represents catastrophe as \"midnight\" and the Bulletin's opinion on how close the world is to such as a number of \"minutes\" (and [recently \"seconds\"](https://twitter.com/OfficialJoelF/status/1220362423007371264)) to midnight.\nIts original setting in 1947 was seven minutes to midnight. It has since been updated up and down according to the world events of the time. In recent years, the increments have been shrinking as the clock gets closer to midnight. The last update as of writing (in January 2020) shaved only 20 seconds from the countdown, setting the clock at 100 seconds to midnight.\nThis question asks: When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?\nThis resolves to the first time at which the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announces that the Doomsday Clock has reached midnight. The question should retroactively close one day before the relevant announcement. \nIf resolution has not occurred on 2100-01-01, this resolves to > 2100-01-01.\nIf either the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists or the Doomsday Clock cease to exist or are otherwise defunct before resolution, this resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:36.372Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:44.884Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 101, "resolution_data": { @@ -61586,7 +61744,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The number of members of the United Nations is [currently 193](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations), with South Sudan as the newest member, being admitted in 2011.\nHow many members of the United Nations will there be on January 1st 2050? If a nation is admitted at 12:00 am on the 1st, this counts. If the UN no longer exists, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:38.209Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:46.441Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -61616,7 +61774,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:40.062Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:47.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -61646,7 +61804,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:42.061Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:48.822Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 158, "resolution_data": { @@ -61665,7 +61823,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) are a means by which the President can govern via their executive powers. They are often seen as a way for the President to circumvent Congress in order to achieve their policy agenda. Some recent Executive Orders by Trump include:\n---[Trump's travel ban](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_13780) \n---[Revival of the National Space Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Space_Council#Revival) \nHow many [Executive Orders](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order) will President Biden have issued, on a weekly basis, prior to noon on January 20 2025 and while he is president?\nHere are the last seven presidents for comparison:\nCarter: 1.53 E.O./week\nReagan: 0.91 E.O./week\nBush I: 0.80 E.O./week\nClinton: 0.87 E.O./week\nBush II: 0.70 E.O./week\nObama: 0.65 E.O./week\nTrump: ~1,00 E.0./week (as of 14-Jan-21)\nHow many Executive Orders per week will President Biden issue?\nThe [Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders) will provide the final numbers. This question resolves on January 31th 2025 at noon, at the latest (Federal Register numbers can take a few days after the White House’s statements).\nRelated Questions \n---[How much will President Trump govern by decree](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1430/how-much-will-president-trump-govern-by-decree/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:44.047Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:50.081Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -61695,7 +61853,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:45.747Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:52.257Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 369, "resolution_data": { @@ -61714,7 +61872,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "After decades of being relegated to niche industries and a [failed first wave](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virtual_reality#1970%E2%80%931990) in the 1990s, virtual reality has once again emerged in the last decade as a promising consumer product. With the launch of the Oculus Rift, HTC Vive, and PSVR in 2016, and continued investment by companies such as Facebook, Sony and Valve, virtual reality headsets are now experiencing a second wave of popularity. However, at this time VR headsets remain a relatively niche product; [total PSVR sales](https://uploadvr.com/psvr-sales-analysis/) are estimated at about 5 million or 5% of PS4 sales, Oculus Quest sales were estimated at [less than 1 million](https://qz.com/1739575/strong-oculus-quest-sales-boost-facebooks-non-advertising-revenue/) late last year, etc.\nWhen will 6DoF, controller-enabled, virtual reality headset sales exceed 10 million units per year?\n---For the purposes of this question, a virtual reality headset has the following characteristics:\n------It is a headset, i.e. a device that attaches to one's head and displays content in front of one's eyes, rather than e.g. a neural chip or a holodeck room. \n------It is virtual reality, i.e. in primary usage it completely or almost completely occludes the outside world, rather than laying an image over it as in augmented reality. \n------It must have 6 degrees of freedom (6DoF tracking); that is, it must track both the 3-dimensional direction that the user is facing, and the 3-dimensional location of the user. \n------It must either be bundled with hand controllers which are similarly 6DoF-tracked, or such compatible controllers must be sold separately (first-party, not from an aftermarket manufacturer). In particular, PSVR qualifies due to the PS Move controllers. 6DoF hand-tracking without physical controllers may qualify only if it is sufficiently precise that it can recognize individual finger motions accurately enough to play 2016 VR games, as judged by the admins. \n------Phone adapters, etc. do not count (even if they had 6DoF tracking); the device in question must be marketed primarily as a headset. \n------There are no further restrictions on price, feature set, method of tracking, tethered vs. standalone, or computing power. \n------For clarity, the following current headsets qualify: HTC Vive family, Oculus Rift family, Oculus Quest, Valve Index, PSVR, Windows MR. \n------The following headsets do not qualify: Oculus Go, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard/Daydream, Magic Leap One, Microsoft Hololens. \n---This question resolves as the first date in which it is determined that 10 million VR headsets were sold up to that date, in that year. \n---Sales are not prorated over time; for example, if a report indicates that 5 million headsets were sold in 2027, and 20 million were sold in 2028, this question resolves as December 31, 2028. If a manufacturer says that 12 million headsets were sold in Q1-Q3, this question resolves as the end of Q3, or September 30. \n---Sales may be computed by adding reports from different manufacturers, or from credible estimates from e.g. analytics firms such as Nielsen SuperData. However, note that any estimate combining multiple headsets must clearly include only qualifying headsets; an estimate of \"VR headsets\" in general may include many non-qualifying headsets. If a single source reports X total sales at the end of 2025 and Y total sales at the end of 2026, Y-X may be taken as the sales numbers for 2026, but this can only be done with two estimates from the same source, not different sources. \n---This question retroactively closes as the time when such a report (or the last such report, if multiple are combined) is made available. Therefore, this question could resolve prior to its closing date; for example, if a single company sells 10M headsets in 2029 but does not announce this until its earnings call in March 2030, the question retroactively closes in March 2030 but resolves as December 31, 2029. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:51.044Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:54.713Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -61744,7 +61902,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:52.877Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:55.968Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 193, "resolution_data": { @@ -61774,7 +61932,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:54.749Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:57.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -61793,7 +61951,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe end of Cycle 25 will be coincident with the minimum of Solar Cycle 26. As the baton is passed from one cycle to the next, the Sun will be characterized by depressed surface-associated magnetic activity (such as flares and prominences) and a paucity of sunspots. \nThe minimum amplitude of Cycle 26, indicated by the level of sunspots at the minimum, can indicate the expected strength of the cycle and future solar activity levels. As the overall field structure of the Sun is believed to harbor some [long-term memory](https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z.pdf). As a consequence, the decline of Cycle 24, which is expected to continue into Cycle 25, provides a possible influence on Cycle 26. The ongoing minimum has so far been quite deep. According to [Spaceweather.com](http://Spaceweather.com) there have been over 100 days in 2020 on which the Sun has displayed zero sunspots, leading to speculation that the Sun may be entering a period of extended low activity, similar to historical lapses such as the Dalton and Geissman minima. The onset of Solar Cycle 26 will either confirm existence of an extended period of low activity or, alternately, signal the close of what turns out to be merely a relatively brief suppression of cycle strength.\nDuring a run of weak cycles and feeble solar activity, [upper atmospheric drag decreases](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Over time, this will permit an increased amount of “space junk” to accumulate in low Earth orbit, leading to higher collision probabilities for satellites. Weak solar cycles are associated with decreased effectiveness of long-range terrestrial radio communication, and in extreme cases, they can possibly influence Earth’s climate, as may have happened with the so-called [Maunder Minimum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maunder_Minimum) from 1645 to 1715, during which the Solar Cycle was suppressed and sunspots were rare.\nWhen will the next minimum after Solar Cycle 25’s maximum occur?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations ([SILSO](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax)) site records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and is expected to provide a report of Cycle 26’s minimum and its date (month) of occurrence. Other reputable sources such as NASA or scientific papers will be used to provide specific dates for the resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:56.536Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:58.369Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -61823,9 +61981,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:52:58.246Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:41:59.763Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 128, + "numforecasts": 129, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-14T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -61853,7 +62011,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:00.437Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:00.935Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 96, "resolution_data": { @@ -61883,7 +62041,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:02.135Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:02.124Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 36, "resolution_data": { @@ -61913,7 +62071,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:04.099Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:03.446Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 212, "resolution_data": { @@ -61932,7 +62090,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSemiconductor devices are key devices in modern electronics. The main applications as electronic devices are junction diodes, transistors, and memories, which are widely used in large-scale integrated circuits [[1]](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/B0123694019004976). The [printed circuit board](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Printed_circuit_board) is the platform upon which microelectronic components such as semiconductor chips and capacitors are mounted.\nWhat will the [Federal Reserves' Industrial Production Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) be for December 2026, for semiconductors, printed circuit boards and related products?\nThis question resolves as the value of the Federal Reserves' Industrial Production (IP) Index [Industrial Production: Durable Goods Materials: Semiconductors, Printed Circuit Boards, and Other](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPB53122S) for December 2026. \nThe industrial production (IP) index measures the real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.\nThe index is constructed so that the mean value for the base period 2012 is 100. In case the Index adopts a different base period, we shall reconstruct the series so that the mean value for 2012 is 100 and use this transformed index to resolve the question.\nIn case a new base-period by the FED, admins will still resolve the question by constructing the index such that the base-period remains 2012. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:06.262Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:04.649Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { @@ -61962,7 +62120,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:08.179Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:06.236Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 171, "resolution_data": { @@ -61981,7 +62139,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Impossible Foods Inc. is a company that develops plant-based substitutes for meat and dairy products. As of September 21st, 2019, at least one supermarket [has announced](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores) its plans to stock its shelves with the Impossible Burger. \n[According to Vox](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/19/20869028/impossible-foods-burger-whopper-grocery-stores), a 12-ounce (0.34 kg) package of Impossible Burger will cost $8.99 at Gelson’s Markets, which is limiting each customer purchase to 10 packages per visit. This translates into a price of $26.43 per kilo. \nWhat will the listing price of an Impossible Food's plant-based beef burger be, in a U.S.-based supermarket, in USD per kilo, in June, 2022?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the lowest reported price per kilo in the month June, in 2022, of any plant-based beef (PBB) burger produced by Impossible Foods, and/or being marketed under the Impossible Foods brand, as indicated by credible reporting. The question shall resolve as the price in USD and in 2019 prices, adjusted for inflation using a commonly used U.S. CPI, such as one published by the Bureau of Labour Statistics.\nCredible reporting of the price of the PBB burger's price should come from credible media reports, or photographic evidence of supermarkets' offline or online listings. Admin may choose to discount various evidence if it is judged that these are items are likely to be mislabelled, or due to glitches on websites, etc.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the PBB burger for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other special price structures that are only available for limited time, or to a strict subset of the supermarket's shoppers.\nPBB is taken to refer to plant-based product that aim to be direct replacements for beef by mimicking the taste, texture, and look of beef, and are marketed as doing such.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the Impossible Foods product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nThe question resolves ambiguous if Impossible Foods ceases to exist, as judged by an admin. Impossible Foods changing its name does not terminate the existence of Impossible Foods.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:10.065Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:07.425Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { @@ -62011,7 +62169,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:11.949Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:08.650Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 439, "resolution_data": { @@ -62030,7 +62188,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Conjecture: There are infinitely many primes p such that p + 2 is also prime.\nIn the last few years, the upper bound N for the statement “There are infinitely many primes that differ by at most N” has been [reduced from 70,000,000 to 246](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twin_prime). But when will we know whether N=2 or not?\nWhen will the Twin Prime Conjecture be resolved?\nThe question is resolved positively when a proof that is mostly correct is published that demonstrates, beyond reasonable doubt of leading number theorists (except those who authored the relevant work), that the Twin Prime Conjecture is proved to be true or false. This question closes retroactively on the date of the proof’s publication when the consensus emerges. If the conjecture were proved to be undecidable in ZFC, the question resolves ambiguously.\nAn [earlier question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8/will-the-twin-prime-conjecture-be-positively-resolved-in-2016/) on the whether the Twin Prime Conjecture would resolve before 2016, needless to say, resolved negative.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:13.855Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:10.416Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 138, "resolution_data": { @@ -62060,7 +62218,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:17.153Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:11.690Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 571, "resolution_data": { @@ -62090,7 +62248,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:19.632Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:12.982Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 406, "resolution_data": { @@ -62109,7 +62267,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2021-06-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:21.408Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:14.477Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 188, "resolution_data": { @@ -62139,7 +62297,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:23.326Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:15.689Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 138, "resolution_data": { @@ -62169,7 +62327,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:25.290Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:16.949Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 430, "resolution_data": { @@ -62188,7 +62346,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Edible insects are insect species used for human consumption, e.g., whole or as an ingredient in processed food products such as burger patties, pasta, or snacks.\nIt is estimated that insect-eating is practised regularly by at least 2 billion people worldwide [(Tao and Li, 2017)](https://bit.ly/2Y2F69z). Many of these insects contain amounts of protein, fat, vitamins, and minerals comparable to commonly eaten livestock (ibid.).\nThe global edible insects market [is estimated to be expanding](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html) supported by a compound annual growth rate of over 20% during the forecast period of 2019 to 2030. This is reported to be due to various reasons, such as [growing population and decreasing food resources, increasing demand for protein-rich food, the high cost of animal protein](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2019/04/01/1790970/0/en/7-95-Billion-Edible-Insects-Market-Global-Forecast-to-2030.html), and a [growing demand for the environment friendly protein rich food](https://www.meticulousresearch.com/product/edible-insects-market-forecast/)].\nAs of 2015, there were [around a dozen US based edible insect companies](https://www.bugsolutely.com/yellow-bug-pages/). Two companies [are reported to have received](http://filepicker.io/api/file/Q1F6wELwToarmVENWL2c) over a million dollar funding in a single fundraising round.\nWhen will a company, in any country, generate $50M revenue in one year from edible insect product sales alone?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when any company generates at least $50M revenue in one year from edible insect products that are for human consumption (i.e. livestock feed and pet food companies are excluded). These products could be whole insects, or any processed food products that with at least a 2% edible insect content by weight. However alcoholic spirits that contain insects do not count as qualifying products.\nReports supporting resolution should come from public company filings, or credible financial news sources.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:27.089Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:18.138Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { @@ -62207,7 +62365,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019.\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera Rubin Observatory/LSST](https://www.lsst.org/) (first light expected in October 2021) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\nWhen will the next interstellar object be discovered?\nThis question resolves on the date that a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before 12/31/2030, this question resolves as \">12/31/30.\"\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:28.927Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:19.342Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 48, "resolution_data": { @@ -62237,7 +62395,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:30.764Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:20.490Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 146, "resolution_data": { @@ -62256,9 +62414,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In two letters to the UN Human Rights Council, lines were drawn on China's mass detention policies in Xinjiang. \n22 countries issued formal condemnations, including western Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand:\nAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK.\n37 countries came out with support:\nRussia, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Algeria, Syria, Tajikistan, Myanmar, Nigeria, Philippines, Angola, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Comoros, Congo (Brazzaville), Cuba, North Korea, Congo, Eritrea, Gabon, Laos, Somalia, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Egypt, Togo, Cambodia, Sudan, South Sudan, Turkmenistan, Cameroon and Bolivia.\nA great many more have remained neutral.\nThe question asks: will the positions of any of these countries, or any currently neutral countries as of 29 Aug 2020, change by the end of 2022?\nGlobal support and side-flipping on China's Uyghur policies in Xinjiang by 2022?\nResolves as the number of countries which formally support China's Xinjiang policies minus the number of countries which continue to condemn said policies, on December 31 2022, subtracted from the same number as of 29 Aug 2020 (this would be +15). For instance, if a neutral country like Turkey started to condemn China's actions, the question would resolve as -1. If Saudi Arabia condemned China's actions, it would resolve as -2, since it was formerly in support.\nThe author of the question isn't familiar with UN mechanisms and isn't sure about how to define \"formal support\" or condemnation, or what channels these can be expressed through. Discussion and commentary in the interim prior to the question being opened is encouraged.\nAs a default, resolution will be according to official member statements such as [this](http://statements.unmeetings.org/media2/23328878/belarus-joint-statement-cerd-chair-oct-29.pdf), though multiple credible media sources reporting flips may also count. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:32.720Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:21.881Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 88, + "numforecasts": 89, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-09-24T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62286,9 +62444,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:34.521Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:23.173Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 242, + "numforecasts": 243, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-21T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62305,7 +62463,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Developing reuscitation technology is perhaps the most integral part of making cryonics viable, but its feasability is highly debated and subject to speculation. And since cryonics organisations can fail and thaw the preserved bodies, it would be better if such technology would be developed earlier rather than later.\nTo find out when such technology will be developed, this question asks: When will the first person that has been in cryopreservation for more than 1 year be resuscitated or uploaded, conditional on this occurring before 1. January 2200?\nFor the purposes of this question, a revived patient must be determined by at least three recognized medical experts (M.D. or PhD in Biology, Neuroscience or equivalent level of education), each of whom is independent of the cryonics organisation responsible for the patient, to be conscious, alert and responsive to questions for at least 12 hours at some point within a year and a day after midnight on the date that the attempt to revive them is made. This would include a whole-brain emulation, but exclude a clone of the original person.\nRelated question: [“Before 1 January 2050, will any human cryonically preserved for at least 1 year be successfully revived?”](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1626/before-1-january-2050-will-any-human-cryonically-preserved-for-at-least-1-year-be-successfully-revived/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:39.063Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:26.573Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -62335,9 +62493,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:42.766Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:27.748Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 31, + "numforecasts": 32, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-12-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62365,9 +62523,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:44.814Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:28.932Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 247, + "numforecasts": 248, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-03-14T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62384,7 +62542,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The United States has the largest broiler chicken industry in the world with about 17 percent of production exported to other countries in 2018 [(National Chicken Council, 2019)](https://www.nationalchickencouncil.org/about-the-industry/statistics/broiler-chicken-industry-key-facts/). Americans consume more chicken than anyone else in the world – more than 93.5 pounds per capita in 2018 – the number one protein consumed in the United States (ibid.). The most recent Census of Agriculture reported 233,770 poultry farms in the United States in 2012 [(USDA, 2015)](https://www.usda.gov/sites/default/files/documents/nass-poultry-stats-factsheet.pdf).\nThe number of broiler-type chicks that hatched totalled 9.71 billion in 2018, 9.62 billion in 2017 [(USDA, 2019)](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). This would resolve the question for the 2016-2018 period as 9.51 billion.\nHow many billions of broiler-type chicks will hatch per year, on average, over the 2028-2030 period?\nThis question resolves as the average number of broiler-type chicks hatched in 2028, 2029, and 2030 (in billions) according to data reported by the [US Department of Agriculture](https://usda.library.cornell.edu/concern/publications/9306sz28s?locale=en). Yearly numbers are to be rounded to one decimal place before averaging. The question resolves ambiguous if the USDA no longer publishes this data, or if its methodology is substantially changed.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:48.169Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:31.409Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { @@ -62403,7 +62561,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Whole Brain Emulation (WBE), often informally called “uploading”, is a proposed technique that involves using a computer to emulate the states and functional dynamics of a brain at a relatively fine‐grained level of detail to produce the same outward behaviour as the original brain. The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is sufficiently faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.[[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)]\nWBE has been proposed as a path to creating human-level digital intelligence.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)]\nAn approach to WBE examined in in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf), a comprehensive study on the topic, is one that involves destructive scanning, in which the brain is separated from other tissue, sliced into thin slices, fixated and subsequently scanned accurately and a at a sufficiently high resolution. This process could be applied immediately after death or on cryogenically preserved brain tissue.\nIn his book, [The Age of Em](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em), Robin Hanson has argued that the emulations in highest demand will be those of the brains of the most elite humans around today.[[2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)] In his view, the em world will be dominated by a few (i. e. something like one thousand) copy clans, copied from humans who will tend to be selected for their productivity, such as billionaires, or winners of Nobel or Pulitzer prizes.\nIf Whole Brain Emulation succeeds, what is the maximum number of humans that will be uploaded in any 5-year period before 2100?\nResolution:\nThis question will resolve as the maximum number of humans whose brain is destructively emulated to produce at least one viable emulation, in any 5-year period before 2100. Emulation here is the process, described in [[1](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf)] that is based on direct simulation of the neural connectome (and a requisite level of its physical instantiation). \nFor the purpose of this question successful WBE will be taken to mean an emulation that is at least as faithful to the original brain as an “individual brain emulation” in [Bostrom and Sandberg (2008)](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (page 11):\nSuccess criterion: \"The emulation produces emergent activity characteristic of that of one particular (fully functioning) brain. It is more similar to the activity of the original brain than any other brain.\"\nCorrect properties: \"Correct internal and behaviour responses. Retains most memories and skills of the particular brain that was emulated. (In an emulation of an animal brain, it should be possible to recognize the particular (familiar) animal.)\"\nDonors need not have been alive before their brain is uploaded. The question resolves ambiguously if WBE does not succeed before 2100. Note that multiple copies of an emulation of a whole human brain only counts as one upload. The question resolves ambiguous if the number falls outside upper bound on the numerical range, which is set at 20B.\nThis question was inspired [by a discussion between @frxtz, @tenthkrige and @holomanga](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2805/if-there-is-an-artificial-intelligence-catastrophe-this-century-when-will-it-happen/#comment-14187) on whether to count emulations “ems”, or uploads as humans for question related to global catastrophic risk.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:50.020Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:32.587Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 114, "resolution_data": { @@ -62433,7 +62591,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:51.708Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:33.770Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -62452,7 +62610,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nThe 11-year Solar Cycle has been intensely monitored and recorded since the 18th century. The ebb and flow of solar activity constitutes an interesting astrophysical problem and it is also for increasing importance here on Earth. In particular, the timing and the scaling of the Solar Cycle’s peaks and troughs is of great importance to operators of both Earth-orbiting satellites and power transmission grids. \nA key measure of solar activity is the number of sunspots, whose presence is correlated with the occurrence of solar flares. [Wolf’s number](https://astronomy.swin.edu.au/cosmos/W/Wolf+Number) (also called the International Sunspot Number or the Relative Sunspot Number) is expressed by the relation R = k(10g +s), where s is the number of individual spots, g is the number of groups of sunspots, and k is a factor that varies with location and instrumentation (also called observatory factor, or personal reduction coefficient). By convention, Wolf’s number is used as a count of the daily number of sunspots. \nIn addition to the extensive historical record of sunspots, there now exists a trove of data from modern solar observations, obtained both from the ground and by a flotilla of spacecraft. Moreover, astrophysical models of the Sun and its processes have reached a high degree of refinement. By combining all of this information, and by adopting a variety of forecasting methods, [predictions of the intensity of upcoming solar cycles](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41116-020-0022-z) can be generated. \nAccurate knowledge of the relative strength of the next cycle would have profound implications for satellite operations, radio communication, and power transmission. For example, if Cycle 25 generates a high sunspot number at solar maximum, it will be associated with increased upper-atmospheric drag. On the one hand, atmospheric drag [can be beneficial, as drag removes dangerous space junk](https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn14207-weak-solar-cycle-may-keep-more-space-junk-in-orbit/) from orbit. With a strong maximum, however, satellite operators face increased risk of [solar flares](https://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/rhessi3/mission/science/the-impact-of-flares/index.html) destroying satellite electronics and damaging solar panels. High levels of solar activity enhance [long-range radio communication](https://www.mckay-brothers.com/us-to-europe-100-wireless/), but they are associated with coronal mass ejections (which generate geomagnetic storms) that can [wreak havoc with terrestrial power grids](https://www.lloyds.com/news-and-risk-insight/risk-reports/library/natural-environment/solar-storm).\nAt present (late Summer 2020) Solar Cycle 24 has reached its end, and solar activity is close to a minimum. Forecasts for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25, however, [differ wildly](https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2019/12/30/steve-brown-compilation-of-solar-cycle-25-forecasts/). We thus ask:\nWhat will be the monthly average of sunspots around Solar Cycle 25’s minimum?\nFor context, the minimum of Cycle 24 occurred in December of 2008 with a total of 2.2 sunspots as a monthly average, and the maximum occurred in April of 2014 with a monthly average of 116.4. Data for this can be found [here](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax).\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nResolution will be carried out with the [Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO)](http://www.sidc.be/silso/cyclesminmax) site. SILSO records the number of sunspots at minimum and maximum points in the solar cycle and will report on Cycle 25’s minimum. The monthly mean numbers are also recorded as part of the 13 month moving sunspot number series.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:55.174Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:36.290Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { @@ -62471,7 +62629,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "As of 2019-01-01, 411 people had been cryopreserved at various organisations:\n---165 at Alcor ([list](https://www.alcor.org/cases.html)) \n---173 at the Cryonics Institute ([list](https://www.cryonics.org/case-reports/)) \n---66 at KrioRus ([list](http://kriorus.ru/en/cryopreserved%20people)) \n---7 at Oregon Cryonics ([list](http://oregoncryo.com/caseReports.html)) \nFor a total of 411.\nHowever, it seems very unlikely that they will stay in cryopreservation indefinitely: they could be reuscitated one day (as they presumably hoped), but the cryonics organisations could also fail at preserving them (see the early cryonics organisation [The Cryonics Society of California](https://hpluspedia.org/wiki/Cryonics_organisations#Cryonics_Society_of_California)).\nTo determine when this will happen, this question asks: When will the number of people in cryopreservation, who were preserved before 2019, fall to 50% of the current number, i.e. to 205?\nResolution details:\n--- \nThis question only considers bodies preserved by Alcor, the Cryonics Institute, KrioRus, and Oregon Cryonics.\n--- \nThis question resolves to the first date when fewer than 205 of the 411 bodies that were preserved before 2019-01-01 are still cryopreserved. Here cryopreserved is taken to mean: cooled to a temperature below -100° C and not structurally damaged irreversibly. This includes thawing, chemical fixation, and other forms of destruction of the brain (such as smashing it). This also includes resucitation.\n--- \nThis question will resolve either by an official statement by the cryonics organisations mentioned above, or any cryonics organisation in possession of any of the 411 bodies, or by credible media reporting by at least 2 major news agencies that either all bodies at these organisations or these bodies specifically have been taken out of cryopreservation.\n--- \nIf any of these organisations dissolves and neither they nor any other cryonics organisation publish an official report of the transfer of these bodies or all bodies at these cryonics organisations, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:57.337Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:37.554Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -62490,7 +62648,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The world real GDP growth rate for the year 2030 will be determined by [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG). The rate is in percentage points. If the World Bank does not release statistics by 2035, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:53:59.178Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:39.529Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 115, "resolution_data": { @@ -62509,7 +62667,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "United States' VP Mike Pence told NASA to accelerate human missions to the Moon ‘by any means necessary’ earlier this year. The mission is supposed to be launched aboard the agency's Space Launch System (SLS) with help from commercial partners. However, many have speculated that a deadline of 2024 for a crewed mission to the lunar surface is beyond ambitious and is just not feasible.\nThe [Space Launch System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Launch_System) (SLS) is an American Space Shuttle-derived super heavy-lift expendable launch vehicle. It is a primary part of NASA's deep space exploration plans, including the planned [Orion Program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orion_(spacecraft)) crewed missions to the Moon and Mars.\n[Artemis 3](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3) is a planned 2024 mission of NASA's Orion spacecraft utilising the SLS, to be launched on the Space Launch System. As of May 2019, Artemis 3 may become the first human landing on the Moon since Apollo 17. The White House has proposed to [increase NASA budget allocation by around $1.6 Billion](http://www.planetary.org/get-involved/be-a-space-advocate/become-an-expert/fy2020-nasa-budget.html) as part of the 2020 budget. It [has been reported that](http://(https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/)) this is to be allocated for multiple elements of the lunar mission architecture in order to pursue the goal of returning crew to the lunar surface by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine [stated that $1.6 Billion in 2020 was sufficient funding to meet the 2024 goal](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2019/05/nasa-quick-start-artemis-program/).\nWhen will the Space Launch System successfully launch a person to the Moon?\nThis question resolves when any spacecraft launched using NASA's SLS containing living humans comes into physical contact with the moon. In line with the resolution criteria of [a previous question by @Jgalt](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1619/when-will-the-first-manned-spacecraft-touch-the-surface-of-any-planet-dwarf-planet-or-moon-other-than-earth-earths-moon-or-mars/), the landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for an unambiguous resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. This resolves ambiguous when NASA's SLS does not carry humans to the Moon by 2036.\nSee also [Will NASA's SLS carry humans to the Moon by 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2795/will-nasas-sls-carry-humans-to-the-moon-by-2024/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:01.109Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:40.710Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { @@ -62539,7 +62697,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:06.696Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:43.408Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 372, "resolution_data": { @@ -62558,7 +62716,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nIndex\nThe index is constructed as follows:\n---We take the average (arithmetic mean) of of the state-of-the-art performance across all benchmarks in the index \n---The index is then defined by scaling this mean so that its average value for the year 2019 is 100 \nThe following benchmarks are included in the Image Classification Performance Index:\nImage classification on: [ImageNet](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imagenet) (in top-1 accuracy), [STL-10](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-stl-10), [CIFAR-100](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-cifar-100), [SVHN](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-svhn), [MiniImagenet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-2), [Tiered ImageNet 5-way (1-shot)](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-tiered), [CUB 200 5-way 1-shot](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-cub-200-5-1), [Stanford Cars](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-stanford), [CUB200](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-cub-200-1), [FGVC Aircraft](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/fine-grained-image-classification-on-fgvc)\nHistorical data on the [Image Classification Performance Index may be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lakiJFeKbgiw8KoYwJ-6NvuZlMZG0cUmx7AH5lUL998/edit?usp=sharing). As of writing this question, the index is at 114.88 for December 2020.\nWhat will the value of the herein defined Image Classification Performance Index be on 2021-06-14?\nThis question resolves as the value of this index on 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT.\nModels that are trained on multiple datasets do not qualify for the purpose of this question—only models trained on benchmark-specific datasets will be considered.\nA benchmark will be removed from the index if:\n---At the time of resolution no new performance data is available for new models for the specific benchmark over the previous 6 months \n---The value of for that benchmark exceeds 10 \nIf a benchmark is removed from the index, the index shall simply be re-constructed according the procedure outlined above.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case error is not natively reported, it is constructed by taking 1-accuracy/100. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:08.770Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:44.569Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 227, "resolution_data": { @@ -62577,7 +62735,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of Joe Biden's campaign promises is his Plan for a Clean Energy Revolution and Environmental Justice. According to [his campaign website](https://joebiden.com/climate/), this will entail:\n--- \nEnsure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.\n--- \nBuild a stronger, more resilient nation.\n--- \nRally the rest of the world to meet the threat of climate change\n--- \nStand up to the abuse of power by polluters who disproportionately harm communities of color and low-income communities.\n--- \nFulfill our obligation to workers and communities who powered our industrial revolution and subsequent decades of economic growth.\nIn order to predict the success of these polices, I ask:\nIf Joe Biden becomes president, what will be the yearly CO2 emissions per capita for the US in 2024, in tonnes?\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\nResolution will be by the [Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research](https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/9d09ccd1-e0dd-11e9-9c4e-01aa75ed71a1/language-en), or a similar reliable source.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if the next US presidential election is cancelled (but not if it's just delayed until some point in 2021).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:10.563Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:45.699Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 152, "resolution_data": { @@ -62596,7 +62754,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The FDA has authorized two vaccines to prevent infection by SARS-CoV-2 — the virus that causes COVID-19. The CDC has [recommended](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/recommendations.html) that the first recipients of the vaccines should be healthcare workers and residents of long-term care facilities.\nOne goal of a vaccine is herd immunity: inoculating a large enough proportion of susceptible individuals to prevent infections to those who have not been inoculated. Herd immunity depends on many factors, but in large part on the efficacy of the vaccine and the proportion of susceptible individuals who are inoculated. Pfizer has reported their vaccine is potentially [95% efficacious at preventing an infection and Moderna announced a vaccine efficacy of 94.1%](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/). An available vaccine is voluntary and recent reports suggest only [about 71% of the population may be willing to be inoculated](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/).\nData sources and more information:\n---[The COVID-19 ForecastHub](https://covid19forecasthub.org/) \n---The CDC’s [COVIDView](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html) website \n---[Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/index.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Age](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html) \n---[Data on Hospitalizations and Death by Race/Ethnicity](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-race-ethnicity.html) \n---[The National Center for Health Statistics count of deaths](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm) \n---[CDC’s US COVID19 Cases and Deaths by State over time](https://data.cdc.gov/Case-Surveillance/United-States-COVID-19-Cases-and-Deaths-by-State-o/9mfq-cb36) \n---[The Atlantic’s COVIDtracking project](https://covidtracking.com/) \n---[Data from John Hopkins University CSSEE COVID-19 Dataset](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data) \n---[A side-by-side comparison of the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines](https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/19/a-side-by-side-comparison-of-the-pfizer-biontech-and-moderna-vaccines/) \n---[KFF COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor: December 2020](https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/report/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-december-2020/) \nWhat will be the cumulative number of deaths due to COVID-19 on 2021-12-31 if greater than or equal to 50% of Americans initiate vaccination (1st dose received) with a COVID-19 vaccine by 2021-03-01?\nThe percent of the population that received a COVID-19 vaccine on or before 2021-03-01 will be computed by dividing the number of individuals who have initiated vaccine (1st dose taken) provided by the [CDC COVID data tracker](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations) by the current US population which on 2021-01-04 was reported to be [330,782,991](https://www.census.gov/popclock/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter) and multiplying this fraction by 100. The CDC COVID data tracker that counts the number of individuals who have initialized vaccination will be accessed when data is available after and as close as possible to 2021-03-01.\nTo resolve deaths, we will use the cumulative number of deaths due to confirmed COVID-19 as recorded in the [Johns Hopkins University (JHU) CSSE Github data repository](https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv). This file records the daily number of deaths by county. From this file deaths are summed across all counties and aggregated to week to generate the number of new deaths per week. The report will be accessed one week after 2021-12-31.\n9 January edit: This question will resolve ambiguously if less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated by 2021-03-01.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:12.441Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:47.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -62626,9 +62784,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:16.163Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:48.532Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 182, + "numforecasts": 183, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-10-08T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62656,7 +62814,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:18.069Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:49.936Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 200, "resolution_data": { @@ -62675,7 +62833,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The obesity epidemic has been ravaging not just the United States but [much of the world](http://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/obesity-and-overweight) over the past 35-40 years. Critics of the current Dietary Guidelines point out that the emergence of the [obesity epidemic coincided with new government advice to eat less fat and more carbohydrate](https://www.dietdoctor.com/introduction-dietary-guidelines-start-obesity-epidemic). (In 2018, the U.S. government [still mandates](https://www.nutritioncoalition.us/dietary-guidelines-for-americans-dga-introduction) a low fat/high carb plan for all Americans over the age of 2, despite the fact that low carbohydrate diets have [whalloped](https://www.healthline.com/nutrition/23-studies-on-low-carb-and-low-fat-diets) low fat diets in clinical trials.)\nIn any event, the origins of this disaster notwithstanding, things are clearly getting worse, year after year. Per a recent analysis in The Lancet (described [here](http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/vast-majority-american-adults-are-overweight-or-obese-and-weight-growing-problem-among):)\nAn estimated 160 million Americans are either obese or overweight. Nearly three-quarters of American men and more than 60% of women are obese or overweight. These are also major challenges for America’s children – nearly 30% of boys and girls under age 20 are either obese or overweight, up from 19% in 1980.\nPer a [CDC report](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm) from a few years ago, in the United States:\nPercent of adults aged 20 and over with obesity: 37.9% (2013-2014) Percent of adults aged 20 and over with overweight, including obesity: 70.7% (2013-2014)\nWhat will the CDC report in 2030 look like? What percentage of Americans age 20 and older will be classified as overweight/[obese](https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=11760) (using the 2018 standards for what these medical terms mean)?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:20.246Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:51.252Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 279, "resolution_data": { @@ -62694,7 +62852,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the things this author finds most baffling about the online world we've developed is the lack of a clean, easy, near-universal, private system of micropayments. The suprising and dismaying absence is nicely described in [this article](https://www.wired.com/story/shouldnt-we-all-have-seamless-micropayments-by-now/?mbid=social_twitter&utm_brand=wired&utm_campaign=wired&utm_medium=social&utm_social-type=owned&utm_source=twitter), asking\nWhere are my digital micropayments? Where are those frictionless, integrated ways of exchanging money online—cryptographically protected to allow commerce but not surveillance?\nand lamenting:\nOf course, we already make payments online all the time, but under current conditions, frankly, it sucks to do so. If you buy things directly from small vendors, you’re stuck entering your credit card information, your email, and your billing address on site after site—sinking ever deeper into the surveillance economy as each digital form puts your personal details into someone else’s database, while also giving hackers ever more opportunities to filch your data.\nI've never seen a convincing argument as to why this is impossible, just \"micropayments fail over and over.\" But that can't go on forever — the prize is just too big. (Note also that my understanding is that China has put together a system that works, though I don't know if it is as private etc. as one might like.) So I ask:\nWhen will the US and Europe have a workable system of micropayments?\nThe question will resolve when, with less than 10 minutes of effort, I can set up a \"wallet\" that will allow me to spend less than 25 cents (2019 dollars) by clicking less than two times, on at least 10 of the top 50 internet sites as listed by a reputable source comparable to 2019's Alexa, and where each payment does not show up as an individual transaction on a credit card or bank statement.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:24.116Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:53.994Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 79, "resolution_data": { @@ -62707,13 +62865,32 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, + { + "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", + "options": [], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:55.491Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 270, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "" + }, { "title": "When will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5573/us-state-race-in-public-charging-outlets/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "California offers [28,223](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) electric charging outlets of every level through a variety of public charging stations. \nThese stations are essential infrastructure required for the widespread use of electric vehicles, and remain a critical factor in EV adoption. In a 2020 survey by Castrol, they found that [64% of consumers](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mainstream-ev-adoption-5-speedbumps-to-overcome/) on average (from countries in the Asian, European, and North American regions) would buy an electric vehicle if charging infrastructure existed to support their driving habits. \nThere are currently [89,970 outlets](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) on public charging stations of every level across the United States, with California representing almost one third of that. Several other states such as Texas, Florida, Oregon, and New York are followers of California’s trend, however, the number of public outlets in the second-greatest state is only [5,151](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) in New York, less than one fifth of the number in California.\nFor people driving longer distances or living in rural areas, both EV range and charging infrastructure is essential for drawing a greater proportion of drivers to buy electric vehicles. The states with the largest number of [new EV registrations](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) in 2018 after California (256,800) were in Texas (22,600), Washington (28,400), Florida (25,200) and New York (16,600). These numbers loosely follow the number of [EV laws and incentives by state](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) as well. \nIf there is a greater push by both private corporations and public state and local governments to provide more public charging stations, then hopefully new registrations will increase as well.\nWhen will another state provide 50% of the number of public charging outlets available in California?\nResolution criteria for this question will be provided through the U.S Department of Energy’s [AFDC](https://afdc.energy.gov/). The number of charging outlets and stations across America can be found through a [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/stations/#/analyze?country=US&fuel=ELEC&ev_levels=all) that is consistently updated. Numbers for this question were drawn on the date: 10/31/20. The number of charging outlets per state can be found through this [map](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10366) that is consistently updated. Other information surrounding adoption can be found through the AFDC in maps like [this](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10962) for new EV registration, which is on a two year updating time lag, and [here](https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10373) to look at the number of current government sponsored laws and incentives for EVs by state.\nIf these criteria are no longer available or current by the time this question resolves, then it will resolve ambiguously. To resolve positively, the number of public outlets of all levels in another state must reach the 50% level for the then current number of public outlets maintained in California at that time.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:25.853Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:56.892Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 25, "resolution_data": { @@ -62743,9 +62920,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:27.891Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:58.067Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 200, + "numforecasts": 201, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-10-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62756,25 +62933,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "When will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5035/when-will-spacex-starlink-internet-be-generally-available/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "[SpaceX](https://www.spacex.com/) is a space transportation services company best known for its partially-reusable [Falcon 9](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/falcon-9/) rocket and ambitions to settle Mars. SpaceX has recently undertaken a project to construct a satellite constellation called [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink) that is intended to provide satellite Internet. In contrast to currently operating satellite Internet constellations, the Starlink constellation is intended to comprise tens of thousands of inexpensive satellites orbiting at a low altitude. The hope is that this will allow relatively inexpensive, low-latency consumer Internet for everyday use.\nAt the current time, SpaceX is advertising [beta signups](https://www.inverse.com/innovation/spacex-starlink-beta-test-how-to-sign-up) for prospective customers, and Internet sleuths have purportedly uncovered [speed tests](https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2020/08/spacex-starlink-beta-tests-show-speeds-up-to-60mbps-latency-as-low-as-31ms/) from beta testers (although it is possible that the tests are fraudulent). However, the beta test is currently quite limited (only in Washington state or possibly Canada), and the users are only using the service in a testing capacity (and being charged placeholder amounts, such as $1).\nWhen will SpaceX Starlink internet be generally available?\nIn order to be considered generally available, Starlink internet must meet several criteria:\n---There must be a \"coverage area\" (either explicit or implicit) within which any consumer may, in principle, request to install Starlink internet. Said consumer might not qualify for normal reasons that might occur with other ISPs. For example, their property may not have a good view of the sky, there are legal or technical barriers to installation, or there is a limited capacity and a waitlist within a region. However, there should be no special restrictions such as having a prior relationship with SpaceX/Tesla or signing a non-disclosure agreement. \n---Due to how orbits work, coverage will initially begin in the higher latitudes (hence the beta test in Washington state). To be considered generally available, the coverage area should extend to at least one location that has a latitude between 35 degrees north and 35 degrees south (e.g. SpaceX's headquarters in Los Angeles). For example, if SpaceX provides a coverage map, it should include such a location; or there should be reports of regular customers from such a location. A boat would qualify if it is using Starlink service within the 35N/35S band. \n---Customers who are unaffiliated with SpaceX (employees, etc.) must be paying for Starlink service. The payment should be understood to be the actual price of the service, as opposed to a placeholder to test the billing system. \n---It should be understood (either explicitly or implicitly) that service is available continuously. That is, there should be, in principle, no periodic outages due to a lack of satellites overhead, although there may be outages for maintenance or if a satellite is destroyed, etc. If SpaceX does not specifically mention such periodic outages, it would most likely be implied that service is available continuously. \n---Note that this question could resolve even if the following occur: the coverage area is very small, the price is prohibitively expensive, the service is extremely poor or unreliable, or there are very few customers. \n", - "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:29.849Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 264, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2020-08-23T22:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2023-12-31T08:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "" - }, { "title": "Will a sitting US president not seek reelection before the 2080 election?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4037/will-a-sitting-us-president-not-seek-reelection-before-the-2080-election/", @@ -62792,9 +62950,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:31.702Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:42:59.269Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 204, + "numforecasts": 205, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-11T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62822,7 +62980,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:35.051Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:01.089Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 236, "resolution_data": { @@ -62852,9 +63010,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:36.829Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:02.317Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 75, + "numforecasts": 76, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-23T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62882,7 +63040,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:38.556Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:03.638Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { @@ -62901,7 +63059,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nMost modern neural network implementations are based on graphics processing units [[1]](https://www.deeplearningbook.org/). This is because GPUs have a much larger number of cores than CPUs, and are thus better suited to executing highly parallelizable programs. Hence, migrating data into graphical form and then using the GPU to scan and analyze it can create a large training speedup for training ML models [[2]](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature14539).\n[Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) is a benchmarking project by [Passmark](https://www.passmark.com/), a software company. It aggregates performance and price data on GPUs. One of the measures of performance it uses is [3DMark](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3DMark), a computer benchmarking tool.\nWhat will the average top price performance (in G3D Mark /$) of the best available GPU be, on June 14, 2021?\nThis question resolves as the mean price performance (in G3D Mark / Price) of the top two currently available GPUs by price performance, on June 14, 2021, 11:59PM GMT, according to [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/).\nThe question resolves ambiguously if [Videocard benchmarks](https://www.videocardbenchmark.net/) ceases to report G3D Mark, or its methodology changes substantially. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:42.557Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:06.038Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 203, "resolution_data": { @@ -62931,7 +63089,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:44.539Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:07.487Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 207, "resolution_data": { @@ -62961,9 +63119,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:46.545Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:08.789Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 66, + "numforecasts": 67, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2021-01-25T05:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -62991,7 +63149,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:48.457Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:10.140Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 41, "resolution_data": { @@ -63010,7 +63168,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nSince the TOP500 project was started in 1993, supercomputers in the United States have always made up the majority of the world's super-compute performance [(TOP500, 2019)](https://www.top500.org/statistics/overtime/). According to TOP500's biannual report, the share of super-compute based in the United States peaked in November of 2005 at 68.31%, and has since been declining most years and was 28.18% in June 2020.\nWhat share (in %) of the world's super-compute performance will United States-based in the June 2021 TOP500 list?\nThe question resolves as the share of the world's super-compute performance at the maximum achieved performance on the LINPACK benchmark (Rmax), in teraFLOPS, that is based in the United States in the June 2021 TOP500 list. \nYou can find the [relevant chart of the historical shares here](https://top500.org/statistics/overtime/).\nData\nHistorical data can [be found here](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJ20X1TM16gdYuW5JERUqnVLfpwthynG_mAAzZQOxcM/edit?usp=sharing). Please make a copy by clicking \"file\" and then \"make a copy\" if you wish to edit it.\nThis question resolves ambiguously if TOP500 stops reporting performance in terms of Rmax measured in TFlop/s on the Linpack benchmark. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:50.245Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:12.637Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 191, "resolution_data": { @@ -63029,7 +63187,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At present, five states explicitly claim in their constitutions to be socialist, are U.N. member states, and are administered and governed by single communist parties - the People's Republic of China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Cuba, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam.\nSimultaneously, several communist groups are engaged in ongoing armed conflicts with existing recognised states. These include the [CPP–NPA–NDF rebellion in the Philippines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communist_rebellion_in_the_Philippines), [various Naxalite insurgencies in India](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Naxalite), the conflict [between the Peruvian government and the Communist Party of Peru](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internal_conflict_in_Peru), the conflict [between the Paraguayan government and the Paraguayan People’s Army](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insurgency_in_Paraguay), as well as the [conflict between several far-left guerilla groups and the Colombian government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colombian_conflict).\nThe question asks: How many communist states will there be in 2050?\nFor the purposes of this question, \"communist state\" will be defined as a United Nations member state (1) which includes explicit references to communism or socialism in its constitution (2), and is administered and governed by a single party describing its ideology as Marxist, Marxist-Leninist, Marxist-Leninist-Maoist, or a variant thereof tracing its ideological lineage to Marxism (3). Presently, only five countries match these three conditions.\nThis question will resolve as the number of countries matching these conditions on 2050-01-01.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:54.120Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:13.868Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 139, "resolution_data": { @@ -63048,9 +63206,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks [whether there will be an AI catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1495/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-an-artificial-intelligence-failure-mode/). Also interesting is when this catastrophe would occur, especially for its implications in how to best avert such a catastrophe.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from an AI-failure-mode occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of AI system(s) has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:56.045Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:15.148Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, + "numforecasts": 154, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-06-27T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -63067,7 +63225,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Millennium Prize Problems consist of 7 profound, unsolved mathematical puzzles curated by the Clay Mathematics Institute of Cambridge, Massachusetts (CMI) in 2000. A prize fund of $7M has been allocated to award to winners, with $1M set aside for the solver(s) of each big problem.\nAll told, the set includes:\n---Yang–Mills and Mass Gap \n---Riemann Hypothesis \n---P vs NP Problem \n---Navier–Stokes Equation \n---Hodge Conjecture \n---Poincaré Conjecture \n---Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture \nOf these monster math problems, only one has been officially solved--the Poincaré Conjecture, by [Grigori Perelman](https://medium.com/@phacks/how-grigori-perelman-solved-one-of-maths-greatest-mystery-89426275cb7). Per Medium:\n[Perelman] is the first and only one to have solved one of the Millennium Problems and, according to many, this situation may not change for a long time. He is also the first and only to have declined both the Fields Medal and the Millennium prize. His justification highlights both his peculiar personality and his deep commitment to mathematics for their own sake: \"I’m not interested in money or fame. I don’t want to be on display like an animal in a zoo. I’m not a hero of mathematics. I’m not even that successful; that is why I don’t want to have everybody looking at me.\"\nAt some point, one assumes, at least one of the other problems will fall. (Other geniuses have already come close and [banged on the door](https://www.firstpost.com/world/is-math-problem-worth-us-1-million-solved-1360027.html) of success.) \nBut when?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:57.897Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:16.413Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 85, "resolution_data": { @@ -63097,7 +63255,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:54:59.720Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:17.824Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 63, "resolution_data": { @@ -63127,7 +63285,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:01.473Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:18.966Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -63146,7 +63304,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Assume for the purpose of this question, some biological humans are still alive on January 1st 2200. In that case, consider the oldest [confirmed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_verified_oldest_people) biological human alive at the start of that day. When will they have been born?\nIf there are no biological humans alive on January 1st, 2200, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:03.352Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:20.362Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 73, "resolution_data": { @@ -63165,7 +63323,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nPrivate equity typically refers to investment funds, generally organized as limited partnerships, that buy and restructure companies that are not publicly traded.\nAs with most other economic activity in the United States, private equity has been impacted by the Covid-19. Some mechanisms through which the pandemic is affecting activity on private markets include [increased uncertainty](https://www.ey.com/en_gl/private-equity/how-private-equity-will-respond-to-the-next-economic-downturn) about the long-run prospects of businesses, and a general economic slump that affects company valuations.\nTotal annual private equity deal value is tracked by Pitchbook, a financial data company. Previous total annual private equity deal values were, [according to Pitchbook](https://chinookadvisors.com/owners-resources/2019/7/25/the-chinook-report-2h), were:\n---2008: $312 \n---2009: $138 \n---2010: $284 \n---2011: $336 \n---2012: $375 \n---2013: $434 \n---2014 $544 \n---2015 $512 \n---2016 $610 \n---2017 $629 \n---2018 $730 \n---2019 $678 \nAll in billions of 2019 US$. \n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total deal value be of all the US PE deals in billions of US$, in 2020?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question resolves on the basis of Pitchbook data, in terms of 2020 US$.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:07.261Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:22.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 121, "resolution_data": { @@ -63184,7 +63342,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Between 1969 and 1972, twelve American men walked on the moon. Since then, no manned spacecraft has ever landed on any astronomical body except the Earth itself.\nThere are various plans to send humans to the moon and to Mars - but when will the first manned spacecraft touch the surface of any planet or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars?\nThis question resolves positively when any spacecraft containing living humans comes into physical contact with any planet, dwarf planet, or moon other than Earth, Earth's moon, or Mars according to the agency, corporation, or other body primarily responsible for the mission.\nThe landing need not last for any significant period of time and the crew need not survive impact for a positive resolution, but must be alive when the impact occurs. Making physical contact with other bodies such as asteroids, comets, or 'minor planets' not considered 'dwarf planets' does not count.\nResolves ambiguously if it cannot be conclusively determined whether or not any members of the crew are alive at the moment the spacecraft makes contact with the surface of the astronomical body. A crew of only [EM](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em)s will not count toward positive resolution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:09.209Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:23.669Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 128, "resolution_data": { @@ -63203,7 +63361,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In November 2009, David Bourget and David Chalmers conducted the first PhilPapers Survey of the philosophical views of professional philosophers. They wrote an article on the results (\"[What Do Philosophers Believe?](https://philpapers.org/archive/BOUWDP)\", and made [various other information available](https://philpapers.org/surveys/). They're now planning a second survey, to be conducted in February 2020, just over ten years after the first survey.\nMind uploading is the hypothetical process of scanning of a particular brain substrate and copying it to a computer. The computer could then run a simulation model of the brain's information processing, such that it would respond in essentially the same way as the original brain (i.e., indistinguishable from the brain for all relevant purposes) and experience having a conscious mind. \nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind_uploading#Philosophical_issues):\nA considerable portion of transhumanists and singularitarians place great hope into the belief that they may become immortal, by creating one or many non-biological functional copies of their brains, thereby leaving their \"biological shell\". \nHowever, the philosopher and transhumanist Susan Schneider claims that at best, uploading would create a copy of the original person's mind. According to her views, \"uploading\" would probably result in the death of the original person's brain, while only outside observers can maintain the illusion of the original person still being alive.\nIn the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys what percentage of respondents will \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded?\nNote that it is expected that there will be an option to allow people to select multiple answers ([source](http://consc.net/ppsurvey.html?fbclid=IwAR1n6_OIzM9G0dTTw2KuwJRGZnizdxkcBxbV213fudny1LJAGae9xguRgms)).\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the percent of all respondents on the particular question that \"accept\" or \"lean toward: yes\" on destructive mind uploading resulting in the \"death\" of the person being uploaded? This question closes 2 days before the release of the results of the 2020 PhilPapers Surveys.\nThe relevant percentage of respondents will be calculated using [the default settings in the previous survey](https://philpapers.org/surveys/results.pl?affil=Target+faculty&areas0=0&areas_max=1&grain=coarse), i.e. with 'Target faculty' for 'population' and 'All respondents' for 'AOS'. If the display options change, then the admins will select that combination of options that best matches those settings. If the defaults change, we will still use the 2009 defaults.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:10.996Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:24.851Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 84, "resolution_data": { @@ -63233,9 +63391,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:12.727Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:26.246Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 116, + "numforecasts": 117, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -63252,7 +63410,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The number π is a mathematical constant, defined as the ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter. Being an irrational number, π cannot be expressed as a common fraction.\nIn March, 2019, Emma Haruka Iwao computed π to 31,415,926,535,897 () decimal places. A chronology of computed numerical values of π can [be found on the dedicated wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chronology_of_computation_of_%CF%80).\nWhat will the largest number of digits of π to have been computed be, by the end of 2025?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:14.871Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:33.141Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 174, "resolution_data": { @@ -63282,7 +63440,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:16.908Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:34.575Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 575, "resolution_data": { @@ -63301,7 +63459,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On October 8, 2018 the Chandra X-Ray Observatory went into safe mode, a few days after the [Hubble Telescope entered safe mode](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1518/will-the-hubble-telescope-resume-operations-in-its-three-gyro-configuration-before-the-end-of-2018/). Since then NASA has diagnosed what caused Chandra’s error and have resumed normal operations. \nFrom [NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/chandra-operations-resume-after-cause-of-safe-mode-identified):\nChandra is 19 years old, which is well beyond the original design lifetime of 5 years. In 2001, NASA extended its lifetime to 10 years. It is now well into its extended mission and is expected to continue carrying out forefront science for many years to come. \nBut for how long? What is the Chandra X-Ray Observatory's remaining lifespan? \nQuestion resolves once an official source announces that the Chandra X-Ray Observatory has ended science operations.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:25.694Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:35.757Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -63331,7 +63489,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:27.645Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:37.014Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 478, "resolution_data": { @@ -63350,7 +63508,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[As of mid-2019 there were over a dozen companies developing clean meat](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies), mostly early-stage startups, and only some with total funding exceeding $20M (these are [Just](https://www.ju.st/en-us) and [Memphis Meats](https://www.memphismeats.com/)). [Estimates reveal](http://elliot-swartz.squarespace.com/) that funding has shown impressive growth just over the past 4 years. As of time of writing this question (August, 2019), no clean meat products have yet been brought to market.\nFor a point of comparison, data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based meat generates [an estimated $801M](https://plantbasedfoods.org/2019-data-plant-based-market/).\nHow much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2030, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as a credible estimate of the revenue by companies generated from the sale of clean-meat containing products for human consumption in the U.S., in the [U.S. fiscal year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_year#United_States) 2030. The figure shall be given in millions of USD, in 2019 prices. Qualifying products need to contain at least 1% of clean meat by weight. Clean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body.\nEstimates should originate from a credible sources, preferably a nonprofit research organisation focussing on clean meat and related technologies, independent market research companies, consultancy reports on clean meat, journal publications by researchers not affiliated with clean meat companies. In the case a range of revenue numbers are reported, the question shall resolve as the median of this range. In the case multiple estimates are found upon resolving, the admin may choose to resolve this question as the median of different estimates, or resolve it per the estimate deemed most credible.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if, by the start of 2033, no credible estimates of the revenue by U.S. based companies generated from clean-meat containing products sales for the fiscal year 2030 can be found.\nThe question resolves in terms of 2019 USD. Hence, estimates are to be adjusted for inflation using a suitable [Bureau of Labour Statistics' CPI](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).\nThis question is part of the [clean meat series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3061/animal-welfare-series-clean-meat/) of our Animal Welfare forecasting project. See also:\n[How much revenue will the U.S. market for clean meat generate, in the fiscal year 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3065/how-much-revenue-will-the-us-market-for-clean-meat-generate-in-the-fiscal-year-2027/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:29.573Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:38.626Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { @@ -63369,7 +63527,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Create your snapshot](https://elicit.ought.org/builder?q_id=5126)\nOn January 1 2019, there were [13.6 million lawful permanent residents in the United States](https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/lpr_population_estimates_january_2015_-_2019.pdf). Lawful permanent residents, also known as green card holders, are immigrants who have been granted authorization to live and work in the United States, but who have not yet become U.S. citizens.\nIf Trump is not re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will be estimated to reside in the US on January 1, 2022 by the Office of Immigration Statistics?\nResolution:\n---Determination of whether Trump was elected will be based on the resolution of this question: [Will Trump be re-elected president in 2020?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/will-trump-be-reelected-president-in-2020/) \n---If Trump is not re-elected for any reason, this question resolves according to the number of lawful permanent residents reported by the Office of Immigration Statistics for January 1, 2022. \n---If Trump is re-elected or if the Office of Immigration Statistics does not report the relevant statistics before January 1 2025, this question resolves ambiguously. \nThe report with data for 2015 to 2019 can be found on [this website](https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics).\nOther possible world:\n---[If Trump is re-elected President, how many lawful permanent residents will reside in the US on January 1, 2022?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5125/if-trump-is-re-elected-president-how-many-lawful-permanent-residents-will-reside-in-the-us-on-january-1-2022/) \nSee the rest of the Possible Worlds Series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5122/conditional-series/).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:33.560Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:40.500Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -63399,9 +63557,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:35.508Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:42.597Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 141, + "numforecasts": 142, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-04-08T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -63418,7 +63576,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The Simpsons has been a [phenomenally successful](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/) television property. \nTV Insider called it \"the Most Powerful TV Show of All Time\" and [reported](https://www.tvinsider.com/53856/why-the-simpsons-is-the-most-powerful-tv-show-of-all-time/): \nThere’s no end to the marketing mania surrounding The Simpsons: More than 500 companies license the characters, and merchandise sales are now closing in on $5 billion. \nAs [Esquire reported](https://www.esquire.com/entertainment/tv/news/a50861/the-simpsons-al-jean-interview/) back in 2016: \nThe Simpsons has just been renewed for a historic 29th and 30th season, making it the longest-running primetime TV show of all time. To put that in perspective, FXX is airing every single episode of The Simpsons consecutively in the longest TV marathon of all time. It will take 13 days. \nBart Simpson, if he aged like a normal person, would [now be older](https://laughingsquid.com/how-old-the-simpson-family-would-be/) than his father, Homer was when the series began.\nHow long will this go on, though? When will The Simpsons finally air its last season (and specifically, last episode)?\n(Note: as usual, question will retroactively close if necessary prior to reliable media reports that the show that a given season will be the Simpson's last.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:39.449Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:43.809Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 165, "resolution_data": { @@ -63437,7 +63595,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "A recent [NYT article](https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/passengers-drivers-pay-uber-lyft.html?em_pos=medium&ref=headline&nl_art=7&te=1&nl=upshot&emc=edit_up_20190603) asks whether drivers or riders will pay for Uber's (and Lyft's) future profitability.\nThis could be impacted by Uber's business model choices, the drivers' and riders' preferences, and technology (which could remove drivers from this equation altogether). This question asks:\nWhat will be the sum of the fares (in 2019 €) of an UberX ride from Tallinn to Amsterdam, from Amsterdam to Lisbon, from Lisbon to Athens on the 12th of June, 2024 at 3PM?\nPrices can be queried [here](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/). Current prices as of writing are given as follows:\n--- \nTallinn to Amsterdam: €1013-€1352, with a median of €1183\n--- \nAmsterdam to Lisbon: €2730-€3641, with a median of €3186\n--- \nLisbon to Athens: €2184-€2913, with a median of €2549 \nHence the sum of the medians for each rides is €1183+€3186+€2549=€6918.\nResolution:\n---Resolution is by [Uber's estimator](https://www.uber.com/us/en/price-estimate/), or the app if the former is not available.\n------if only given a range, take the median. \n---Resolves ambiguously if Uber does not exist / does not offer this ride. \n---Resolution timestamp is meant to ignore surge pricing. If we miss it, take the next week day at 15:00. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:41.334Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:45.352Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 58, "resolution_data": { @@ -63456,7 +63614,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Amazon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_(company)) is a technology company best known for its online shopping website. It is the [third largest company in the world](https://www.thebalance.com/market-capitalization-3305826) by market cap.\n[Amazon Prime Air](https://www.amazon.com/Amazon-Prime-Air) is a program under development that plans to deliver packages to customers using drones, or uncrewed aerial vehicles (quadcopters and the like). The program has suffered substantial delays. When it was revealed in 2013, CEO Jeff Bezos predicted that drone delivery would be available by [2018](https://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-bezos-predicted-amazon-would-be-making-drone-deliveries-by-2018-2018-12). Test deliveries were first made in 2016. In 2019, Amazon stated that drone delivery would be available [within months](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/amazon-promises-drone-delivery-months/story?id=63494811). However, as of September 2020, drone delivery is still apparently under development.\nWhen will Amazon deliver some products by drone?\nThis question resolves as the date when, according credible media reports or the Amazon website itself, a consumer in one of the 20 largest U.S. cities can order some product on [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and have it delivered by an uncrewed aerial vehicle.\nThe drone must be uncrewed, but not necessarily autonomous (it could be remotely piloted). It must primarily move through the air; sidewalk drones such as Starship Technologies robots do not count.\nOnly one product needs to be eligible for drone delivery to qualify; for example, there could be a special promotion where only Amazon Echo devices are delivered by drone.\nIf the service is available in only certain parts of the city, at least 20% of the city's area must be covered, at least in principle (it is not necessary that Amazon be able to deliver to every single address in the coverage area). In cases where the city has an associated \"metro area\" (such as LA), we consider only the city proper.\nThere may be a fee to access drone delivery (similar to Amazon Fresh), a waiting list, or technical requirements (e.g. a landing zone), but the customer may not be required to have any special relationship with Amazon (e.g. employee/friends and family, signing an NDA, or being part of a restricted beta program).\nThere are no requirements for delivery speed.\nThe drone must be used for the final step of a delivery (the \"last mile\"), and need only be used for that step. For example, a delivery driver could drive a van to a neighborhood and deploy drones to deliver boxes to houses on the block. On the other hand, an autonomous airliner delivering packages to warehouses would not qualify.\nIf there is insufficient information on any of these criteria (e.g. it is unclear how much of a city's area is covered), the question remains open, and resolves when all of the criteria are clearly satisfied. The question could resolve ambiguous if there is conflicting information, e.g. if one report claims that 15% of the city's area is covered, and another claims 25%. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:44.878Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:49.238Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 62, "resolution_data": { @@ -63486,7 +63644,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:47.231Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:50.800Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 379, "resolution_data": { @@ -63505,7 +63663,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Following a UK-wide [referendum in June 2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum), in which 52% voted to leave and 48% voted to remain in the EU, the British government formally announced the country's withdrawal in March 2017, beginning the Brexit process. Following a general election, Parliament ratified the [withdrawal agreement](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit_withdrawal_agreement), and the UK left the EU at 11 p.m. GMT on 31 January 2020.\nThe country is currently in a transition period until at least 31 December 2020, during which the UK remains in the single market, in order to ensure frictionless trade until a long-term relationship is established. If no such agreement is reached by that date and the transition period is not extended, a no-deal Brexit would be the default outcome in 2021.\nWhen, if ever, will the United Kingdom submit an application to rejoin the European Union?\nFor this question to resolve positively, the United Kingdom must submit a membership application to the European Council to rejoin the European Union. If this does not happen by the deadline of January 1 2050, the question will resolve as \">2050\". Note that joining itself is not required by the given date, only the application to join.\nThe question resolves ambigously if either of the aforementioned entities cease to exist before the given date.\nIn the event of a dispute as to the definition of the “United Kingdom” (e.g. if one or more of the constituent countries secede), so long as the union still calls itself such and contains at least the countries of England and Wales in full, that entity will count for the purposes of this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:49.169Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:51.965Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 86, "resolution_data": { @@ -63524,7 +63682,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Data from [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/) summarised by the Plant Based Foods Association and The Good Food Institute shows U.S. retail sales of plant-based milk totalled $1.86 billion in the year ending April 2019 ([Good Food Institute, 2019](https://www.gfi.org/marketresearch#section-intro)).\nPlant-based milk alone accounts for almost half of the total plant-based alternative foods market. Dollar sales of plant-based milk grew 6% in the past year and 14% over the past two years. Plant-based milk currently accounts for 13% of all dollar sales of retail milk.\nHow much will the total US plant-based milk market be worth in the year ending in April 2023, in millions of 2019 USD?\nResolution\nThis question will resolve as the value of the US market for plant-based milk, as estimated by [SPINS](https://www.spins.com/). The market value is to be adjusted for inflation and given in 2019 prices. SPINS' estimate of the value of the US market for plant-based foods is the sum of their estimates of the value of the US market for the following subcategories of plant-based alternatives: almond milk, soy milk, coconut milk, rice milk, oat milk, and other plant-based milks and blends.\nIn the event that the only data available is that for the year ending in December, and if it cannot be constructed or obtained any other way (such as by using the following year's data release, or by contacting the relevant organisation), then this question shall resolve as the total value of the market for the year ending in December of the previous year.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if SPINS data is substantially different in 2023 compared with 2019. SPINS is to be considered to be substantially different if the methodology for estimating the size of the market is substantially changed, such as when using the new methodology, estimates of the historical size of the market (currently $1.6b in 2017, $1.8b in 2018, $1.9b in 2019, with all years ending in April) changes by more than 50%.\nIn case SPINS data is substantially different or not available, it is left to the discretion of an admin to either resolve this question ambiguous, or consult an alternative estimate. However, this alternative estimate should only be used if it is judged that the estimate is likely the estimate follows an estimation method that is at least 90% likely produce an estimate within 50% of the estimate obtained by following the SPINS methodology, subject to updates considered reasonable in case new plant-based subcategories emerge, or previously existing subcategories that were excluded from earlier SPINS estimates constitute a larger share of the total value.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:53.114Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:53.137Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 95, "resolution_data": { @@ -63554,9 +63712,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:54.913Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:54.362Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 190, + "numforecasts": 191, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-17T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -63584,7 +63742,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:56.829Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:55.889Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -63614,7 +63772,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:55:58.655Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:57.328Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 168, "resolution_data": { @@ -63644,7 +63802,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:00.589Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:43:58.544Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 1193, "resolution_data": { @@ -63663,7 +63821,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nIn 2018, the [United Nations System](https://www.unsystem.org/content/un-system) (the United Nations and its six principal organs) spent approximately 52.78 billion USD on its various operations, as [reported in the CEB Financial Statistics database](https://www.unsceb.org/content/FS-F00-05?gyear=2018).\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will the total expenditures of the United Nations System be for the year 2050, in billions of US dollars?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nResolution is through any of the following sources, in descending order of priority:\n---A report from the Chief Executives Board for Coordination \n---A report from another body of the United Nations \n---A statement by a United Nations spokesperson \n---A report by another credible source \nIf the United Nations does not exist as an organization in 2050, this question resolves as 0.\nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is still an internationally recognized currency, the value given will be converted to United States dollars using the [ UN Operational Rates of Exchange](https://treasury.un.org/operationalrates/default.php). If the UN Operational Rates of Exchange do not exist at that time, any other method of conversion may be used subject to the discretion of Metaculus admins. \nIf the United Nations reports its expenditures in a currency other than United States dollars, and the United States dollar is no longer used internationally, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:04.157Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:00.833Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 14, "resolution_data": { @@ -63693,7 +63851,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:06.243Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:02.594Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 184, "resolution_data": { @@ -63712,7 +63870,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "It is widely acknowledged that a steady push toward autonomous automobiles is underway. Many new vehicles contain several partial-autonomous features, and a number of near-autonomous or fully-autonomous vehicles are in development for consumer use. \nA key example is the Tesla 3, which (along with all future Teslas) will contain \"[full self-driving hardware](https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-tesla-cars-being-produced-now-have-full-self-driving-hardware)\", and many speculate could be delivered with full autonomy. Elon Musk has [predicted](https://www.inverse.com/article/15200-elon-musk-half-of-all-cars-in-8-years-will-be-fully-autonomous) that \"Half of all cars in 7 or 8 years will be fully autonomous.\"\nAnother [detailed report](http://mashable.com/2016/08/26/autonomous-car-timeline-and-tech/#VjYfNZPtIEqZ) indicates level 4 autonomous cars available at some level from Audi in the late 2020s, from Ford and BMW in 2021, Nissan in 2020, Kia in 2030, Honda at some point, Tesla in 2018, and Volvo in 2017(!).\nThese could all constitute interesting separate questions, but here we'll ask a combined question inspired by Musk's prediction.\nIn what year will half of all new automobiles sold in the US be fully autonomous? \nFor specifics, we'll define \"fully autonomous\" using the NHTSA \"level 4\" designation:\nThe vehicle is designed to perform all safety-critical driving functions and monitor roadway conditions for an entire trip. Such a design anticipates that the driver will provide destination or navigation input, but is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. This includes both occupied and unoccupied vehicles.\nWe'll also specify that \"cars\" really means \"cars,\" i.e. trucks are excluded. Resolution is by credible industry estimates.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:08.150Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:03.781Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 361, "resolution_data": { @@ -63731,9 +63889,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin), born 7 October 1952, is a Russian politician and former intelligence officer who has served as President of Russia since 2012, previously holding the position from 1999 until 2008. He was also the Prime Minister of Russia from 1999 to 2000 and again from 2008 to 2012.\nUnder Putin's leadership, Russia has experienced democratic backsliding. Experts do not generally consider Russia to be a democracy, citing jailing of political opponents, curtailed press freedom, and the lack of free and fair elections.\nRussia has scored poorly on Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index and Freedom House's Freedom in the World index (including a record low 20/100 rating in the 2017 Freedom in the World report, a rating not given since the time of the Soviet Union). Human rights organizations and activists accuse Putin of persecuting political critics and activists as well as ordering them tortured or assassinated; he has rejected accusations of human rights abuses.\nIn June 2020, [Putin said he’ll consider running for a fifth presidential term in 2024, arguing that the hunt for any successor risks paralyzing Russia’s government.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-21/putin-hints-he-could-seek-a-fifth-term-as-president-in-2024?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=business&utm_medium=social&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business)\nThis question asks: When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?\nThis question resolves as the date on which Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia, whether due to resignation, loss of an election, death in office, incapacity to serve, or removal from office via either a legal process or a coup. \nIn the event that while Putin is serving as President, some other individual is temporarily acting as President, e.g. in the event that Putin has to undergo surgery or some other medical procedure, this shall not be considered Putin 'ceasing to be President of Russia' unless Putin has not, within 30 days, resumed his duties as President.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:11.617Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:04.957Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 137, + "numforecasts": 140, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-07-16T22:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -63761,7 +63919,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:13.567Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:06.164Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 57, "resolution_data": { @@ -63791,9 +63949,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:15.395Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:07.458Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 121, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-09T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -63821,7 +63979,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:17.227Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:08.932Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 317, "resolution_data": { @@ -63840,7 +63998,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2017, the world spent $1,537 Billion on [cell phones](https://www.statista.com/statistics/263437/global-smartphone-sales-to-end-users-since-2007/), $105 Billion on [TVs](https://www.statista.com/statistics/461324/global-tv-market-sales/), $101 Billion on [Laptops and Tablets](https://fortunly.com/blog/lap-top-market-share/), and $27 Billion on [PC monitors and projectors](https://www.statista.com/outlook/15030300/100/pc-monitors-projectors/worldwide).\nWhat do all of these have in common? Screens! The Average American Household has 7 [screens](https://variety.com/2019/digital/news/u-s-households-have-an-average-of-11-connected-devices-and-5g-should-push-that-even-higher-1203431225/) in their house. \nScreens have been with us for nearly a [century](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Television_set#Early_television). \nBut nothing lasts forever.\nThis question asks, \n\"When will a new technology, designed primarily for transmitting visual information outsell all existing technologies with screens?\"\nFor the purpose of this question, we will define a screen as \"a technology that displays a 2d image on a flat surface\".\nIf a device primarily uses the new display technology, the entire device is counted as a sale. \nFor example if a phone is released with a 3d hologram projector,the entire sale cost of the phone is counted towards this question.\nIf a new technology is not sold (for example if it was given away freely by our benevolent AI overlords), a fair market value will be imputed based on how much it would cost a typical consumer were it freely available for sale. If the entire concept of fair market value is rendered meaningless, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe question resolves positive if in one year the gross sales for \"non-screen\" displays is greater than the sales for \"screen\" technology.\nThe question will resolve positively on Dec 31 at 11:59PM GMT of the year in which such sales took place.\nBecause the word \"screen\" cannot be precisely defined, this is a self-resolving question.\nIf at any point in time, both the community and Metaculus prediction give a 95% chance that the answer to this question is one year before the current date, then this question enters the resolution process. The Proposed Answer is taken to be the community median. With 90% probability, the question simply resolves as the Proposed Answer. With 10% probability, the question is sent to a committee of three admins, who will vote yes/no. If they vote positively, the question resolves as the Proposed Answer. If they vote negatively, then the question is put on hold until the resolution date, at which point three admins will each vote on an answer, with the median of the three taken to be the final answer.\nCurrent examples of \"screens\":\n1--Phones \n2--Televisions \n3--Laptops/Tablets \n4--PC Monitors \n5--Video projectors, since they are typically used to display a flat image. \nExamples of technologies that could be described to \"primarily convey visual information\":\n---VR Headsets, because although headsets have flat displays, the actual experience is being in a completely different world with, ideally, no perception that one is looking at a physical screen \n---AR \"smart\" glasses \n---Smart contact lenses \n---[Neuralink](https://www.neuralink.com/) if it progressed to the point of being able to project a visual image in the brain. \n---2d holographic displays (For example, [Looking Glass](https://lookingglassfactory.com/product/8-9) ) \n---3d holographic displays \n---[Video paint](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/03/050329140351.htm) \nNon-examples (improved screen):\n---Curved TVs \n---Folding Phones \n---Smartwatches (screen is circular instead of rectangular) \n---[\"Roll-up\" screens](https://www.cnet.com/news/lg-oled-tv-roll-up-comes-out-hiding-when-tv-time-rolls-around/) \n---[Video projector phone](https://www.techradar.com/reviews/blackview-max-1-projector-smartphone) \nNon-examples (not a visual display technology):\n---Wireless earbuds \n---Telepathy which does not produce a visual image in the mind of the receiver \n---Humanoid robots which are capable of acting out visual dramas \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:19.027Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:10.240Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 111, "resolution_data": { @@ -63859,7 +64017,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The extreme difficulty of obtaining sufficient organ donations means that many lives (and much quality of life) are lost each year due to the deficiency.\nA promising possibility is [xenotransplantation](https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/xenotransplantation), in which animal, e.g. pig, organs are substituted for human ones. This is a surprisingly viable possibility, and would provide an array of advantages (other than perhaps to the pig.)\nThere are two significant problems. First, non-human organs tend to be [rejected very quickly](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Hyperacute_rejection) by human hosts. Second, [pig cells in particular create a host of native viruses](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xenotransplantation#Porcine_endogenous_retroviruses) (even without infection) and there is significant concern that these might adapt to be new human pathogens if widely placed in human hosts.\nNonetheless significant progress is being made in addressing both challenges; for example [this startup](http://www.frontlinegenomics.com/news/26902/george-churchs-startup-testing-pig-organs-in-primates/) is apparently testing pig organ transplants into nonhuman primates.\nWhen will the first pig (or other nonprimate) organ be successfully used in a human? \nThe organ should be a kidney, liver, heart, pancreas, or lung. We'll define \"successful\" as the organ functioning for 30 days after transplantation.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:20.855Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:11.417Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 99, "resolution_data": { @@ -63878,7 +64036,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Winifred Wagner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winifred_Wagner), the daughter-in-law of composer Richard Wagner, was good friends with Adolph Hitler. It is possible she provided him with the paper he used to write Mein Kampf while in prison. Yet she [intervened](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/3297001/British-Wagner-saved-Jews-from-her-friend-Hitler.html) to save Jews from arrest and personally told Hitler that she was \"disgusted\" by their persecution. Wagner and Hitler corresponded for over a 20 year period but the letters are currently held by Winifred Wagner's granddaughter, Amélie Lafferentz-Hohmann, who refuses to release them on the grounds that they are \"[explosive](http://www.the-wagnerian.com/2012/08/the-winifredhitler-letters-katharina.html).\"\nWhen will Winifred Wagner's correspondence with Adolph Hitler be published?\nThis question resolves when the letters in question are made public.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:22.650Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:13.144Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 24, "resolution_data": { @@ -63908,7 +64066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:27.208Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:14.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 716, "resolution_data": { @@ -63938,7 +64096,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:29.026Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:15.541Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 207, "resolution_data": { @@ -63968,7 +64126,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:30.864Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:16.824Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 137, "resolution_data": { @@ -63987,7 +64145,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Graphcore](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graphcore) is a semiconductor company that develops accelerators for AI and machine learning.\nIn a [2019 interview by Wired](https://www.wired.co.uk/article/graphcore-ai-intelligence-processing-unit), Nigel Toon was asked whether Graphcore's goal ultimately is to IPO. His response:\nThat’s the path we’re shooting for, absolutely.\nWhen will Graphcore become a publicly traded company?\nThis question resolves positively as the date when Graphcore first becomes a publicly traded company. This may occur through any of the following channels:\n---Graphcore holds an IPO or a completes a direct listing \n---Graphcore is acquired by a publicly traded company \n---Graphcore completes a [reverse IPO](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reversetakeover.asp) by acquiring a publicly traded company \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore is aqcuired by a private company. \n--- \nThis question resolves ambiguously if Graphcore ceases operations before going public.\n--- \nThis question resolves as \">2035-11-10\" if it fails to resolve positively before 2035-11-10. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:32.675Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:18.200Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 23, "resolution_data": { @@ -64006,7 +64164,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The performance capabilities of computers (e.g. CPUs, GPUs and Supercomputers) are expressed in [floating point operations per second (FLOPS)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS), a standard rate for indicating the number of floating-point arithmetic calculations systems can perform per second.\nCurrently (09/09/2018), the [ NVIDIA TITAN V GPU]( https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/titan/titan-v/), has one of the lowest theoretical performance cost at $27.27 per TFLOPS ( FLOPS), with a price of $3000 and a theoretical peak performance of 110 Tensor TFLOPS. \nHowever, theoretical peak performance relies on the accelerating parts, and generally does not involve other hardware such as memory, network or I/O devices. [An analysis of GPU performance](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0010465511000452), finds that theoretical predictions of maximum theoretical performance of three different GPUs to be higher by around 30% when compared to experimental results. [Similar work on CPUs ]( http://spiral.ece.cmu.edu:8080/pub-spiral/pubfile/ispass-2013_177.pdf ) has found discrepancies between actual and theoretical maximum performance of generally within a factor of 10. \nTo take this into account, we shall here assume that theoretical cost figures (such as reported by hardware manufacturers are 10 times too low), setting current costs at $272.70 per TFLOPS. Getting to below $1 would therefore amount to a orders of magnitude reduction in cost per TFLOPS.\nInterestingly, [according to some estimates](https://aiimpacts.org/brain-performance-in-teps/), a reduction in computing costs of roughly 2-3 orders of magnitude could place the cost of computation at the brain's communication performance in the range of human wages (around a couple hundred dollars per hour).\nWhen will a TFLOPS cost less than $1?\nThis question resolves positively if a reputable source reports a TFLOPS for Tensor, or single/double precision performance to cost less than $1 using reliable performance measurement techniques. The usual theoretical price estimates given by manufacturers will be multiplied up by a factor of 10 for the sake of this question (hence requiring a $0.1 theoretical cost per TFLOPS for positive resolution).\nPrices will be adjusted to 2018 prices using the [ Domestic Producer Prices Index: Manufacturing for the United States](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PIEAMP01USA661N).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:34.574Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:19.461Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 139, "resolution_data": { @@ -64025,7 +64183,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "There’s much talk about driverless and autonomous cars, [not](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/424/in-what-year-will-half-of-new-cars-sold-in-the-us-be-fully-autonomous/) [just](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/776/when-will-the-next-fully-autonomous-car-fatality-occur/) [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/46/fully-autonomous-self-driving-cars-by-2018/), but also in the world at large. \nThe Society of of Automotive Engineers is an association that, among other things, defines standard, for example for the levels of driving automation. The highest levels, levels 4 and 5, can be shortened to “minds off” and “steering wheel optional,” respectively. At the latter level the car has to be able to handle all common, if not all possible aspects of driving. The car would be effectively a wheeled robot, and the driver would be only its passenger.\nDriving under the influence (DUI) leads to hundreds of thousands accidents per year, only a small amount leads to a conviction. But with the prospect of fully autonomous cars we ask:\nWhen will a judgement of DUI be overruled or turned down due to the accused riding in a driverless car?\nThis question will resolve positive on the day such a judgement is reported by credible news media, and ideally verified with court documentation.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:38.242Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:22.089Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 83, "resolution_data": { @@ -64055,7 +64213,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:40.089Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:23.627Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 186, "resolution_data": { @@ -64085,7 +64243,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:42.458Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:24.802Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 123, "resolution_data": { @@ -64115,7 +64273,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:44.365Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:25.953Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 39, "resolution_data": { @@ -64134,7 +64292,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the moment, the [Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China](http://www.asianlii.org/cn/legis/cen/laws/mlotproc354/#:~:text=%5BArticle%202%5D%20A%20marriage%20system,Family%20planning%20shall%20be%20practised.) adopted on September 10, 1980, defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman. However, late last year, China's top legislative body has been advised to legalize same-sex marriage in the updated civil code.\nAccording to a [Bloomberg article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-20/china-hints-it-may-open-the-door-to-same-sex-marriage):\nThe Commission for Legislative Affairs of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee has received more than 237,000 online suggestions and 5,600 letters requesting to clarify the “scope of close relatives, improving the common debt of spouses and legalizing same-sex marriage,” according to the report, which cited Yue Zhongming, spokesman of the commission.\nThe report didn’t specify if the legislature will include the legalization of same-sex marriage in the civil code. The NPC will review the draft of the new civil code in March 2020, according to its website.\nThe question asks: When will China legalise same-sex marriage?\nThe question takes \"legalisation\" to mean an amendment of the Marriage Law of the People's Republic of China, widening the legal definition of marriage to encompass same-sex couples. It resolves on the date that such legislation is passed by the National People's Congress, and resolves ambiguously should the People's Republic of China cease to exist in one form or another.\nThis question resolves as \"> Jan 1, 2100\" if it does not resolve positively or ambiguously before 01/01/2100.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:46.249Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:27.268Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -64153,7 +64311,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "At the end of April, NASA [announced](https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa-names-companies-to-develop-human-landers-for-artemis-moon-missions) the selection of three private companies to develop a lunar lander:\nNASA has selected three U.S. companies to design and develop human landing systems (HLS) for the agency’s Artemis program, one of which will land the first woman and next man on the surface of the Moon by 2024.\nThe three companies are:\n1--Blue Origin \n2--Dynetics \n3--SpaceX \nThis question asks: Which of these three companies will be first in developing a lunar landing system that successfully lands a person on the moon?\nThis question will resolve to precisely 1,2 or 3 when a lander build by the respective team successfully lands a living human on the moon. In the case that none of the 3 successfully lands a living human on the moon before January 1, 2030, the question will resolve to a value of 0.\nIf two of the teams merge or NASA selects a different company to develop a lunar lander, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:48.048Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:29.377Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -64166,36 +64324,6 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", - "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", - "platform": "Metaculus", - "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": 0.87, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:50.291Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 1385, - "resolution_data": { - "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", - "resolution": null, - "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", - "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" - }, - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will China launch an \"artificial moon\" by 2025?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1529/will-china-launch-an-artificial-moon-by-2025/", @@ -64213,7 +64341,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:52.136Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:30.703Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 125, "resolution_data": { @@ -64226,13 +64354,43 @@ }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison?", + "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/957/donald-trump-spends-time-in-jail-or-prison/", + "platform": "Metaculus", + "description": "Please take this question not as an expression of partisan blood-lust (\"Lock him up!\"), but as an exercise in conjunctive probabilities.\nDonald J. Trump may or may not have committed crimes during his tenure as President, during his campaign, or previously in his life and business career.\nFor him to actually serve time as a result of being found guilty, several things would have to be true, with each one roughly dependent on the last.\n1) He would have to have committed a crime (on the generous theory that he will not be jailed if this is not the case).\n2) He would have to be eligible to be indicted. This means that either \na) he is no longer President, or \nb) it is decided that a sitting President can be indicted (a matter of legal controversy at the moment)\n3) A prosecutor or grand jury would have to decide that he should be indicted.\n4) He would have to be found guilty.\n5) A judge would have to decide on a sentence that included time in jail.\n6) The sentence starts before a pardon occurs.\nNumber 5 in particular may be quite a high bar, especially given the potentially incendiary impact of jailing a President or ex-President who won election and enjoyed the continuing support of a large percentage of the American public. The American political/judicial system has shied away from any such outcome in previous scandals. Richard Nixon resigned to avoid impeachment and then was preemptively pardoned; Bill Clinton was impeached by the House without conviction by the Senate, and did not suffer conviction on criminal charges (though he was cited and fined for civil contempt of court, had his law license suspended for five years, and settled a civil lawsuit out of court).\nWe will ask for something simpler: Will Donald Trump spend any time in jail or prison, for any reason?\nThis question will resolve positively if Donald Trump is incarcerated for any period of time, no matter how brief, before June 30, 2028. It will resolve negatively either on June 30 2028 or upon Trump's death if he has not been so incarcerated\nNote that the reason for Trump being jailed need not have any connection to any particular scandal or to Trump's presidency or presidential campaign, nor to the 6 steps listed above. If Trump is held overnight in county lock-up pending arraignment on a charge of reckless driving, then the resolution is positive.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.88, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:32.345Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": 1390, + "resolution_data": { + "publish_time": "2018-06-08T07:00:00Z", + "resolution": null, + "close_time": "2021-06-30T19:00:00Z", + "resolve_time": "2028-06-30T19:00:00Z" + }, + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "What will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?", "url": "https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5585/neuropreservation-price-at-alcor-2030/", "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [Alcor](https://www.alcor.org/library/case-for-neuropreservation/),\nNeuropreservation, quite simply, is low temperature preservation of the brain of a terminal patient. All efforts in neuropreservation are devoted to the singular purpose of preserving the brain, and only the brain, in the best possible condition allowed by present technology. The disposition of other tissue only matters inasmuch it impacts upon the condition of the brain.\nAs of writing this question, Alcor [charges a minimum](https://www.alcor.org/docs/alcor-form-schedule-a-required-costs-and-cryopreservation-fund-minimums.pdf) of $80,000 for neuropreservation, often paid with life insurance. For people purchasing life insurance for cryonics, it's important to ensure that the funding is above the minimum amount required for preservation. However, the price has changed in the past. Therefore, it's critical that cryonics enthusiasts anticipate future price changes, so that they can afford the procedure when they need it.\nMati Roy has written [a timeline of brain preservation](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/Timeline_of_brain_preservation) and has recorded both the [real](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics,_inflation_adjusted.png) and [nominal price of brain preservation over time](https://timelines.issarice.com/wiki/File:Historical_cost_of_cryonics.png).\nWhat will the price of neuropreservation be at Alcor in 2030?\nThis question resolves as the minimum nominal price of brain preservation provided by Alcor at the beginning of 2030 in US dollars, if Alcor still exists. Otherwise, this question resolves ambiguously. Resolution is determined by a source provided by Alcor.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:57.243Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:34.858Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 46, "resolution_data": { @@ -64251,7 +64409,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [United States of America](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States) is a North American country that was established on July 4, 1776. The first [President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_the_United_States) was George Washington, and Donald John Trump is the 45th and current President.\nAlthough it may seem hard to imagine a future where there is no President of the United States for an extended period of time, political systems and the fates of nations change over time.\nUntil now, there have only been [minor gaps of a few days](https://www.quora.com/Whats-the-longest-time-the-United-States-has-gone-without-a-president) between the end of one president's term and the swearing in of the next.\nHow many consecutive Presidents of the United States will there be, until that office remains vacant for a period of three consecutive months?\nThe question will resolve after the first span of three consecutive months where the office of the President of the United States is vacant, retroactively to the time at which the office became vacant. The time of resolution will be determined by the judgement of the Metaculus moderators on the basis of reliable news reports.\nIf the chief executive office is renamed, such that there is no longer a President of the United States, but there is still a single chief executive with the same or broadly similar powers and responsibilities, this will not trigger resolution. The aim of the question is to identify the date when there is no longer a single chief executive officer of the US.\nThe question shall track presidents who are democratically elected, or those appointed through the constitutional line of succession. If the US constitution is amended, such that presidents no longer have term limits or are appointed by other methods, the question will include those presidents, so long as they hold their power legally (defined by the contemporaneous constitution). \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:56:59.060Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:36.050Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { @@ -64281,9 +64439,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:00.863Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:37.221Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 90, + "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-16T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64300,9 +64458,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n-------\n\nLevels of geomagnetic activity correlate with the likelihood of a geomagnetic storm occurring. Geomagnetic storms result from [variations in solar wind](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/geomagnetic-storms) that produce major changes in the currents, plasmas, and fields in Earth’s magnetosphere. Together, all of these disturbances, and the magnetic deviations they produce on the ground, are used to construct a commonly used [planetary geomagnetic disturbance index known as Kp](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index).\nIn the past, significant geomagnetic disturbances have [caused damage to electric power transmission grids](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/electric-power-transmission). For example, a geomagnetic storm associated with a solar coronal mass ejection in March 1989 caused the [entire province of Quebec to lose power](https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/sun_darkness.html). As society grows ever more reliant on technology, vulnerability to the influence of solar weather increases apace. \nOn occasion (and independently of the longer-term changes in upper atmospheric temperature and density triggered by the solar cycle) the interaction between the solar wind and the Earth’s magnetic field during geomagnetic storms can produce short-term [increases in the temperature and density of Earth’s thermosphere, increasing drag around satellites](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/impacts/satellite-drag#:~:text=In%20addition%20to%20these%20long,density%2C%20increasing%20drag%20on%20satellites). Increased drag in turn decreases the interval over which a satellite can orbit without re-adjustment. In the absence of maintenance boosting, low-earth satellites will [lose altitude and eventually re-enter the atmosphere](https://www.nasa.gov/feature/40-years-ago-skylab-reenters-earth-s-atmosphere).\nWhat will be the 3-day mean geomagnetic forecast around Solar Cycle 25’s maximum?\n\nResolution Criteria\n-------------------\n\nThe resolution criteria will be drawn from the [Planetary K Index data](https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index) recorded through the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. The mean will be measured in Kp units. If there is not sufficient data or the data does not become available from this site or any other reputable site, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:02.548Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:38.350Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 36, + "numforecasts": 37, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-08-13T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64330,7 +64488,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:06.099Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:40.457Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { @@ -64349,9 +64507,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Space Exploration Technologies Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX), doing business as SpaceX, is a private American aerospace manufacturer and space transportation services company headquartered in Hawthorne, California. \nSpaceX's achievements include the first privately funded liquid-propellant rocket to reach orbit ([Falcon 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_1) in 2008), the first private company to successfully launch, orbit, and recover a spacecraft ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2010), the first private company to send a spacecraft to the International Space Station ([Dragon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Dragon) in 2012), the first propulsive landing for an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2015), the first reuse of an orbital rocket ([Falcon 9](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_9) in 2017), and the first private company to launch an object into orbit around the sun ([Falcon Heavy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy)'s payload of a [Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk%27s_Tesla_Roadster) in 2018).\nAs of 2019, the company is developing a vehicle currently known as the [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship). This vehicle is intended to enable [ultra low cost launches to LEO and beyond](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-passenger-cost-elon-musk.html), as well as human exploration and settlement of the Moon and Mars. \nFurther, in 2019 SpaceX began deployment of an extremely large satellite constellation known as [Starlink](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)), which may ultimately consist of more than 40,000 satellites. The constellation is designed to deliver high-bandwidth, low-latency internet access to everywhere on Earth, and is [due to be fully operational by the late 2020s.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink_(satellite_constellation)#Constellation_design_and_status) Morgan Stanley Research has suggested that successful completion of this megaconstellation [may increase SpaceX's value to $120 billion.](https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-future-multibillion-dollar-valuation-starlink-internet-morgan-stanley-2019-9?r=US&IR=T)\nSpaceX's valuation has increased dramatically since the company was formed in 2002, [crossing the $1bn mark in 2010, and reaching a $10bn valuation in 2015.](https://twitter.com/JonErlichman/status/1196147909647044608) As of 2019, the company is reportedly [valued at $33.3 billion.](https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/31/spacex-valuation-33point3-billion-after-starlink-satellites-fundraising.html)\nThis question asks: What will SpaceX be worth by 1 January 2030 in billions of nominal US dollars?\nIn the event that SpaceX is a publicly traded company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the company's market capitalization on that date. In the event that SpaceX is a privately held company on January 1 2030, this question resolves as the most recent credible estimated valuation attributed to the company by a reputable financial news organization. \nIf SpaceX changes its name or corporate structure before this question resolves, including but not limited to in the event of a merger or acquisition, this question should continue to track the value of the renamed company. If SpaceX (or any relevant successor company) ceases to exist before 1 January 2030, or if (as judged by an admin) the company has changed in structure so substantially that it is no longer SpaceX, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:08.143Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:41.697Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 413, + "numforecasts": 414, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-11-28T00:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64368,7 +64526,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2012, the [Higgs boson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Higgs_boson) was discovered by the Large Hadron Collider with a mass of eV. This observation of the Higgs completed the [Standard Model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_Model), of which the Higgs mechanism was an important theoretical but experimentally unobserved part.\nThere remain unexplained facts about physics and [theoretical difficulties with current models of physics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_beyond_the_Standard_Model) that might be explained by the introduction of new fundamental particles. One popular extension to the standard model is [supersymmetry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supersymmetry), which predicts that each particle has a heavier supersymmetric partner.\nThere are proposals for larger particle accelerators that could probe collisions at higher energies, such as the [Future Circular Collider](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Circular_Collider) which, if constructed, would have a center of mass collision energy of eV, though [physicists are sceptical](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/1/22/18192281/cern-large-hadron-collider-future-circular-collider-physics) that any new physics would be discovered by them. One particularly exciting form of new physics that could be discovered would be a particle in their energy range. Thus, I ask:\nWhat will the mass of the next fundamental particle to be discovered be, in electronvolts (eV)?\nResolution will be the average mass listed for the particle by [Particle Data Group](http://pdglive.lbl.gov/Viewer.action) once scientific consensus emerges that the particle observed is a new fundamental particle. If multiple new particles are discovered in the same window of time, the first will be considered to be the first to have been observed, even if it was not known to be a new fundamental particle at the time.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if no new fundamental particle is discovered by 2070.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:09.974Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:43.131Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 42, "resolution_data": { @@ -64387,7 +64545,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Every year in May, Gallup asks people about the moral acceptability of various issues. You can see their most recent report [here](https://news.gallup.com/poll/1681/moral-issues.aspx). One of the issues they ask about is \"Buying and wearing clothing made of animal fur.\" As of May 2020, 54% of survey participants responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur, and 43% replied that it was morally wrong. This means the net acceptability is 54 - 43 = 9%. What will the number be in 2030?\nWhat will be the net acceptability of buying and wearing fur by 2030?\nThis question resolves as the percentage of survey participants who responded that it was morally acceptable to buy and wear clothing made of animal fur minus the percentage who responded that it is morally wrong, as of the most recent survey completed by Gallup by the end of 2030. In case the most recent survey is one that is more than 3 years old at the end of 2030, then this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:12.288Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:45.092Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 52, "resolution_data": { @@ -64406,7 +64564,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Hutter Prize](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hutter_Prize) is a 500'000€ Prize for Compressing Human Knowledge. The competition's stated [mission](http://prize.hutter1.net/) is \"to encourage development of intelligent compressors/programs as a path to AGI.\" Since it is argued that Wikipedia is a good indication of the \"Human World Knowledge,\" the prize often benchmarks compression progress of algorithms using the [enwik9 dataset](http://mattmahoney.net/dc/textdata), a representative 1GB extract from Wikipedia.\nSince 2006, the Hutter Prize has galvanized not only data scientists but also many AI researchers who believe that image/text compression and AI are essentially two sides of the same coin. Compression algorithms are based on the premise of finding patterns in data and are predictive in nature. Furthermore, many machine learning researchers would agree that systems with better predictive models possess more \"understanding\" and intelligence in general.\nThe [Algorithmic Information Theoretic](http://www.scholarpedia.org/article/Algorithmic_information_theory) (AIT) philosophy of this contest is that compression is induction (aka [comprehension](https://arxiv.org/abs/1904.10258)) and decompression is inference (aka prediction). According to AIT, lossless compression is adequate to avoid both [confirmation bias](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias) and [over-fitting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overfitting). (Of Algorithmic Information Theory, [Marvin Minsky's final advice](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfY-DRsE86s&feature=youtu.be&t=1h30m02s) was that, \"Everybody should learn all about it and spend the rest of their lives working on it.\") See [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1AxVXt2Gv4&feature=youtu.be) for an interesting podcast interview.\nWe ask:\nWhat will be the best bits-per-character compression of the Hutter Prize at the end of 2022? \nTo calculate the current bits-per-character(*), [click here for the Hutter Prize records table](http://www.hutter1.net/prize/index.htm#prev), look in the \"Total Size\" column for most-recently awarded value, multiply by 8 and divide by .\n(*) Strictly speaking, this is \"bits-per-byte\" but this relaxation of definitions is quite common in computerdom.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:16.550Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:46.523Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 82, "resolution_data": { @@ -64436,7 +64594,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:18.232Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:47.723Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 44, "resolution_data": { @@ -64466,7 +64624,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:20.053Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:48.960Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 59, "resolution_data": { @@ -64485,7 +64643,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Burj Khalifa](http://www.burjkhalifa.ae/en/index.aspx) towers over the Dubai desert at 2,717 feet (828 meters; for this question [United States customary units](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_customary_units) are appropriate), making it currently (as of March 2018) the tallest manmade building in the world. It’s held that record since 2008, and it bests the next tallest skyscraper, the [Shanghai Towers](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/shanghai-tower/56) in Shanghai, China by nearly 650 feet. (One World Trade Center, the tallest building in the U.S., lags behind at 1,776 feet.)\nBut guess what, Burj? Your days of being #1 are (probably) numbered. Several projects on the development slate are on schedule to overtake Dubai’s neo-futuristic megatall landmark.\nAmong them:\n--- \nThe Jeddah Tower in Saudi Arabia, which will stretch up a whole kilometer [above the Earth](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeddah_Tower) by 2021 \n--- \nIn 2021, [Merdeka PNB118](http://www.skyscrapercenter.com/building/merdeka-pnb118/10115) in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, will nip at the Burj's heels at 2,113 feet.\nBut when will a skyscraper join the mile high club? \nThe Sky Mile Tower proposed to be built in Tokyo, Japan aims to do just that. But the obstacles are formidable. As [CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/style/article/tokyo-mile-high-skyscraper/index.html): \nAt that soaring height, design requirements for wind can exceed those for earthquakes -- even, according to [a] report [by the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH)], in the most earthquake-prone regions of the world. \"The tower will naturally have long periods of vibration that will be more readily excited by the wind,\" the report explains. \nIt seems difficult but not impossible. When do YOU think a mile high megatall building will finish completion?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:21.846Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:50.260Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 205, "resolution_data": { @@ -64504,7 +64662,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome_coronavirus_2) is a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus. It is contagious in humans and is the cause of the ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).\nHow many human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) will be estimated to have occurred before 2021, worldwide?\nResolution details:\nIn the last week of December 2021, Metaculus admin and community moderators will review a portion of credible scientific estimates published in the year 2021, of the cumulative total amount of human infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) that occurred before the end of 2020. Admin and community moderators may decide to resolve this question on the basis of the median estimate considered they consider most credible, or decide to resolve this question as the median of all median estimates found by reviewing a portion of credible scientific literature.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:23.914Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:51.740Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 798, "resolution_data": { @@ -64534,7 +64692,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:25.895Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:53.741Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 531, "resolution_data": { @@ -64553,7 +64711,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "One of the earliest produced clean meat product was a clean fish product. In 2002, researchers working on the the fabrication of surrogate muscle protein constructs as food products for Space travelers grew goldfish cells grown to resemble fish fillets [(Benjaminson et al, 2002)](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12416526). However, since then, most clean meat companies have been focussed on producing the meat of livestock and poultry (see [here for a list](https://cellbasedtech.com/clean-meat-companies)). There are several clean fish companies, amongst these are The US-based [Blue Nalu](https://bluenalu.com/) and [Finless Foods](https://finlessfoods.com/). \nWe might expect that if clean beef or clean chicken matures before clean fish, the regulatory challenges of bringing clean fish to market could be reduced. In the United States, the USDA and FDA jointly oversee the production of cell based meat products. The FDA oversees cell collection and growth while the USDA will oversee cell harvesting and labelling. Currently, the USDA and FDA refer to cell based meet as food products derived from the cells of livestock and poultry. The official term(s) and labelling rules are yet to be determined, but the FDA and USDA [outlined the regulatory framework](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/wps/wcm/connect/0d2d644a-9a65-43c6-944f-ea598aacdec1/Formal-Agreement-FSIS-FDA.pdf?MOD=AJPERES) in a way that [has been described to](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/3/9/18255806/fda-usda-lab-grown-meat-cell-based-vegan-vegetarian) \"[provide] a transparent path to market for cell-based meat products,”, according to Elan Abrell, a senior regulatory specialist at the [Good Food Institute](https://www.gfi.org/).\nWhen will two or more supermarkets sell products made of ≥20% clean fish in their physical retail stores in at least 25 states?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the date when two or more supermarketets in the United States offers a clean fish product for human consumption for sale in physical locations in at least 25 states. The product must contain at least 8 grams of clean fish. The clean fish containing product must cost less than $25 per 100 grams.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nClean fish is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an fish' body. A supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:29.193Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:55.188Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 81, "resolution_data": { @@ -64572,7 +64730,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Context\n=======\n\nThe property and casualty insurance market is a [$1.6 trillion industry](https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/industries/financial%20services/our%20insights/state%20of%20property%20and%20casualty%20insurance%202020/state-of-property-and-casualty-insurance-2020.ashx#:~:text=As%20a%20whole%2C%20property%20and,has%20yet%20to%20be%20disrupted.), and according to McKinsey, “remains one of the few industries that has yet to be disrupted.” P&C insurance premiums represent an important metric for business owners as they plan for the cost of protecting their businesses from risk. According to the [National Association of Insurance Commissioners](https://www.naic.org/documents/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf):\nSoft market conditions have gripped the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry since 2007. Some characteristics of a soft market are flat or declining rates, more relaxed underwriting standards, and increased competition among insurers. \nFollowing the industry’s [2017 highest-ever losses](https://www.swissre.com/media/news-releases/2018/nr20180410_sigma_global_insured_loses_highest_ever.html), predominantly caused by a catastrophic increase in climate related incidents such as wildfires, flooding, and the hurricane season, the P&C insurance market saw a [49.5% net income increase in 2018](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/topic_insurance_industry_snapshots_2018_annual_property_casualty_analysis_report.pdf), followed by a [7.9% net income increase in 2019](https://content.naic.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/YE2019%20Industry%20Report.pdf).\nAccording to the [Council of Insurance Agents & Brokers](https://www.ciab.com/download/18848/):\nPremium pricing increased an average of 3.5 percent in Q1 2019, compared to 2.4 percent in Q4 2018 and 1.6 percent in Q3 2018.\nThe same report identifies the highest premium increase in the last 10 years as 28.5% in Q4 of 2001.\nCOVID-19 appears to be precipitating a hardening of the market, and [CIAB reports](https://www.ciab.com/resources/covid-19-and-continued-market-hardening-put-stress-on-p-c-market-in-q1-2020-according-to-ciab-market-survey/) that premium prices across all-sized accounts increased by an average of 9.6% in Q1 2020, representing the 10th consecutive quarter of premium increases.\n\nQuestion\n========\n\nWhat will be the average percentage change in property and casualty insurance premiums in Q1 2021?\n\nResolution\n==========\n\nThis question will resolve according to [CIAB’s Quarterly Market Outlook report](https://www.ciab.com/market-intel/) for Q1 2021.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:30.969Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:56.533Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -64602,9 +64760,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:33.066Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:44:57.748Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 129, + "numforecasts": 130, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-13T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64621,7 +64779,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "India is the seventh-largest country by area, and with more than 1.3 billion people it is the second-most populous country and the most populous democracy in the world.\nGNI per capita, PPP (current international $) in India was [reported at $6,490 in 2016,](https://tradingeconomics.com/india/gni-per-capita-ppp-us-dollar-wb-data.html) according to the World Bank collection of development indicators, compiled from officially recognized sources. \nThe World Bank has historically classified every economy as low, middle or high income. The World Bank further specifies its classes of countries into low, lower-middle, upper-middle and high income economies. The World Bank uses GNI per capita as the basis for this classification because it views GNI as a broad measure that is considered to be the single best indicator of economic capacity and progress.\nMICs are broken up into lower-middle income and upper-middle income economies. Lower-middle income economies have per capita GNIs between $1,006 and $3,955, while upper-middle economies have per capita GNIs between $3,956 and $12,056. India at $6,490 in 2016 was thus about 50% below the threshold for high-income status. \nMICs are a very diverse group by region, size, population and income level, ranging from tiny nations with very small populations such as Belize and the Marshall Islands to all four of the BRIC giants – Brazil, Russia, India and China. China and India together hold nearly one-third of humanity and continue to be increasingly influential players in the global economy.\n[A list of countries and territories considered high-income by the World Bank can be viewed here.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy) Note that over time the World Bank has [revised the nominal dollar threshold for high-income status](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Bank_high-income_economy#Historical_thresholds), and it is highly probable that they will continue to do so in the future. \nThe threshold for high-income status currently stands at $12,056 gross national income per capita US$, calculated using [the Atlas method](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlas_method). \nThe high-income threshold was originally set in 1989 at US$6,000 in 1987 prices. Thresholds for subsequent years were adjusted taking into account the average inflation in the G-5 countries (the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, Germany and France), and from 2001, that of Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States and the eurozone. Thus, the thresholds remain constant in real terms over time. \nThis question asks: When will India be designated a high income country by the World Bank?\nResolution should cite a press release or other information from the World Bank, or credible media reports citing World Bank sources.\nThe question resolves ambiguously if the World Bank ceases to exist before India is designated a high-income country, or if India ceases to exist as a geopolitical entity before being designated high-income by the World Bank.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:38.171Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:00.854Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 148, "resolution_data": { @@ -64651,9 +64809,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:39.973Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:02.041Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 160, + "numforecasts": 161, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-01-13T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64670,9 +64828,9 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Coinmarketcap.com](https://coinmarketcap.com/) is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. While one can look at specific coins, one can also look at [the total market cap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/), i.e. the summed value in USD of every coin's worth. As of 2020 October 14th, this value is 359B USD, down from all time high of 831B USD on 2018 Jan. 7th. The total market cap is usually highly correlated with the value of Bitcoin, but if the market share of Bitcoin falls drastically, this is no guarantee ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5205/bitcoins-market-dominant-cryptocurrency/)).\nWhat will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be at start of 2025? (In billion USD)\n---Value is taken from [coinmarketcap.com's page](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/) in billion USD. \n---If the site goes down before resolution, Metaculus admins will choose a suitable replacement. If none is found, this resolves ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:43.785Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:04.053Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 263, + "numforecasts": 264, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-11-06T10:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64689,7 +64847,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "LRT 2.2: As of Monday, April 27th how many total cumulative SARS-CoV-2 infections (including all symptomatic, subclinical, and asymptomatic infections) have there been in the US?\nThe question resolves as the median of the median estimates from at least two studies published in 2021, of the number of total infections that occurred on and before the April 27th. These studies are to be selected on the basis of credibility by the UMass/Metaculus collaboration.\nThis question may resolve ambiguously if it is determined that the number of infections that occurred before April 27th may not be accurately determined, to the satisfaction of the UMass/Metaculus collaboration, for some reason (e.g. studies are unable to accurately determine the date-of-infection-onset).\nIf fewer than two relevant studies are available in 2021, the question resolves ambiguously.\nThe Metaculus results will be reported using the 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:45.817Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:06.657Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 157, "resolution_data": { @@ -64719,9 +64877,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:49.381Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:07.866Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 107, + "numforecasts": 108, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-05-24T07:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64738,7 +64896,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [inequality-adjusted human development index can be described as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI), \"the level of human development when inequality is accounted for,\" whereas the Human Development Index itself, from which the IHDI is derived, is \"an index of potential human development (or the maximum IHDI that could be achieved if there were no inequality).\"\nWhile the US is currently ranked 15 on the human development index, [it's ranked 28](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_inequality-adjusted_HDI#List) on the inequality adjusted index.\nWhat will the rank of the US be in the 2035 report, as published by the United Nations Development Programme?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:51.041Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:09.056Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 19, "resolution_data": { @@ -64768,7 +64926,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:56.726Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:14.090Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 567, "resolution_data": { @@ -64787,7 +64945,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Triplebyte](https://triplebyte.com/) is a software engineering certification company that works with engineers to find jobs. Recently, [they added a path](https://triplebyte.com/blog/announcing-triplebyte-for-machine-learning-engineers) for machine learning engineers and data scientists. Triplebyte also generally releases [salary data](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/) for engineers who pass their interview process. However, their ML/data science path has apparently not been available for long enough to provide median salary data on their salary information page (currently, when you select \"ML / Data Science\" on the page, it does not change the distribution). Hopefully by 2023, the data will be available.\nWhat will be the median salary for Triplebyte engineers in the ML / Data Science role by 2023?\nIf by January 1st 2023, Triplebyte reveals the median salary for ML/data science engineers who passed their interview, then this question resolves on the median salary value in US dollars on that date (which can currently be found [here](https://triplebyte.com/software-engineer-salary/)). If Triplebyte releases data on ML engineers and data scientists separately, then the median salary for ML engineers should determine resolution. Otherwise, the question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:57:58.531Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:15.468Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 40, "resolution_data": { @@ -64817,7 +64975,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:00.416Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:16.651Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 183, "resolution_data": { @@ -64836,7 +64994,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Top500 has been compiling charts and reports on the supercomputing industry for a long time. [Here](https://www.top500.org/statistics/perfdevel/) is a graph showing impressive gains in performance in terms of Flop/s.\nIn June of 1993, the #1 performer was at 59.7 GFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.4 GFlop/s, which is a multiple of 149.25. In June of 2018, the #1 performer was 122.3 PFlop/s, versus the #500 performer at 0.7156 PFlop/s, for a multiple of 170.9.\nThis relative gap has been in a pretty stable range for many years. In June 2007 the multiple went down to only 70.15, and June 2016 it got up to 325.06, but it has tended to stay within a range so far.\nWould we expect such a performance multiple to stay in this range in the future? What might change this roughly-a-factor-of-100 lead in supercomputing Flop/s? Estimate what this multiple will be in the year 2030.\nResolution will be based on Top500's reporting on the subject, using the first number reported for 2030. If their reports are no longer available, then the next-best source will be sought. Resolves ambiguous if Flop/s in supercomputing is no longer reported by anyone.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:02.251Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:18.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 88, "resolution_data": { @@ -64866,9 +65024,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:05.812Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:21.488Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 120, + "numforecasts": 121, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -64896,7 +65054,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:11.246Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:25.059Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 296, "resolution_data": { @@ -64926,7 +65084,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:13.560Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:26.360Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 2107, "resolution_data": { @@ -64956,7 +65114,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:15.454Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:27.762Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 206, "resolution_data": { @@ -64986,7 +65144,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:17.443Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:28.941Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -65016,7 +65174,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:19.387Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:30.171Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 571, "resolution_data": { @@ -65035,7 +65193,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nImage Classification is the task of identifying an image by assigning to it a specific label. Typically, Image Classification refers to images in which only one object appears and is analysed. In contrast, object detection involves both classification and localisation tasks, and is used to analyse more realistic cases in which multiple objects may exist in an image.\nThe MiniImageNet dataset contains 100 classes randomly chosen from [ImageNet](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1409.0575.pdf) and 600 images of size 84×84 pixels per class. It is split into 64 base classes, 16 validation classes and 20 novel classes.\nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is ResNeSt-200 PT+MAP [(Hu et al., 2020)](https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03806v2.pdf), which achieves an accuracy of 82.92.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/few-shot-image-classification-on-mini-1), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?\nThis question resolves as the highest level of performance achieved for one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet up until 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT. Only models trained on MiniImageNet's data qualify—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2021-06-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:21.560Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:31.361Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 314, "resolution_data": { @@ -65065,7 +65223,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:23.249Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:32.532Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 47, "resolution_data": { @@ -65084,7 +65242,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "On July 23 2019, it was [announced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-49073992) that Boris Johnson had been elected as the new Leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party. He will become Prime Minister on 24 July.\nThis question asks: After taking office on July 24 2019, when will Boris Johnson cease to be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?\nResolves whenever credible media reports state that Boris Johnson has left the position of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, whether through resignation, a vote of no confidence, loss of Parliamentary seat, incapacity, death, or any other reason.\nNote that this does not automatically resolve in the event that a general election is called. Although there are no MPs after Parliament is dissolved, there is by convention still a Prime Minister, and [ministers continue to hold their offices despite not being MPs.](https://www.parliament.uk/about/how/elections-and-voting/general/dissolution/)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:27.147Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:35.330Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 301, "resolution_data": { @@ -65103,7 +65261,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[Covid-19](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)) is the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA coronavirus first reported in 2019 and genomically sequenced after nucleic acid testing on a positive patient sample in a patient with pneumonia during [the 2019-2020 Wuhan pneumonia outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019%E2%80%9320_outbreak_of_novel_coronavirus_(2019-nCoV)). The virus is [at least 70% similar in genetic sequence to SARS-CoV](https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30011-4/pdf), the [virus that causes severe acute respiratory syndrome](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome-related_coronavirus).\nVarious research groups [have started work](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_novel_coronavirus#Vaccine_research) on a vaccine to fight the virus, with [some](https://web.archive.org/web/20200125203723/https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-vaccines-idUSKBN1ZN2J8) hoping to start human tests as early as May 2020.\nQuestion: When will a vaccine targeted at the 2019 novel coronavirus (Covid-19) be administered to at least 10M people?\nDetails:\n--- \nThis question resolves as the date when one vaccine first is administered to at least 10M people.\n--- \nResolution will be by credible media report or credible official publication this has happened. This excludes media and institutions affiliated or otherwise under the control of the Chinese government.\nThe first Covid-19 vaccine administered to at least 10M people can trigger: \n---Positive resolution if there is consensus that it provides immunity against Covid-19. \n---Ambiguous resolution if there is no consensus one way or the other. \n--- \nNo resolution if there's a consensus that it does not protect against Covid-19\n--- \nThe aforementioned \"consensus\" shall be reached among non-china-affiliated medical professionals, as judged by Metaculus, helped by the discussion in comments below.\nIf does not resolve before Mar 14, 2027, it resolves as >Mar 14, 2027. If it's not certain on what day the 10M threshold was breached, admins may resolve this as their best guesses that are made in consultation with community moderators and community members.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:29.284Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:36.690Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 419, "resolution_data": { @@ -65122,7 +65280,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "When is the earliest day the world has less than 50,000 newly infected COVID-19 cases, on a three day average basis?\nResolution is by Johns Hopkins Covid-19 tracker, [here](https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html).\nBy average, we mean the sum of previous three days / 3.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:31.220Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:39.490Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 188, "resolution_data": { @@ -65141,7 +65299,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Genetic modification of farmed animals to increase the efficiency of food production, increase animal health and welfare, and reduce the environmental footprint, has been a goal for many decades [(Tait-Burkard et al., 2018)](https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1583-1). This has been pursued by way of engineering and cloning farm animals to optimise for muscle growth, muscle size, feed conversion efficiency, disease resistance.\nIn addition to economic impacts, this could have various implications for animal welfare. Since a larger, more disease resistant animal produces more meat, fewer livestock is needed to produce a given output. Gene editing also makes possible tweaks that directly improve animal welfare: [alterations that produce hornless cows](https://www.nature.com/articles/nbt.3560) could spare cows from having to be dehorned, whilst [editing to produce pigs that lack testicular development](https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0218176) would make mass surgical castration unnecessary.\nHowever, worries have been voiced that intentional genomic DNA alterations could also be detrimental to animal welfare ([HSUS Report, 2006](https://www.humanesociety.org/sites/default/files/docs/hsus-report-issues-genetic-engineering-cloning-farm-animals.pdf)).\nThe only genetically engineered animal to ever be approved for food purposes via the new animal drug provisions of the FD&C Act, the AquAdvantage salmon, a genetically engineered Atlantic salmon. The AquAdvantage was mired in regulatory limbo for years, and incurred development and regulatory costs running into the tens of millions of dollars [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Only in 2019, did [the FDA determine that](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations/aquadvantage-salmon-fact-sheet) AquAdvantage Salmon meets the statutory requirements for it being safe to eat.\nIf DNA alterations continue to require FDA approval by default, how many intentionally genomic DNA altered animals will be determined as safe to eat, by the end of July 2025?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the number of variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals that are approved by the FDA by the end of July, 2025, for import and/or production, and determined to be safe to eat. What is here referred to as \"variants of rDNA constructs in intentionally genomic DNA altered animals\" or \"animal drugs\" are “an article (other than food) intended to affect the structure or any function of the body of … animals” [(van Eenennaam et al., 2019)](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41538-019-0035-y). Details of some of the animals that have been approved for production or import are reported on the [FDA website](https://www.fda.gov/animal-veterinary/biotechnology-products-cvm-animals-and-animal-food/animals-intentional-genomic-alterations).\nThis resolves ambiguously if single non-transgenic genetic change, by way of recombinant DNA (rDNA) techniques (such by way of CRISPR-Cas9) ceases to trigger mandatory premarket FDA regulatory oversight prior to commercial release of gene-edited food animals anytime before the end of July, 2025. Specifically, this question resolves ambiguously if the question [When will non-transgenic genetic change alone cease to trigger regulatory oversight for the approval of gene-edited animals used in meat production?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3139/when-will-a-genetic-change-cease-to-trigger-regulatory-oversight-for-the-approval-of-gene-edited-animals-used-in-meat-production/) resolves positively before the end of July, 2025.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:37.411Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:42.625Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 64, "resolution_data": { @@ -65160,7 +65318,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "For quite some time, Apple has apparently been working hard on some sort of car. Details are very sketchy, but what is known at of mid-2018 is laid out pretty comprehensively in [this article](http://www.motortrend.com/news/apple-car-exclusive/). It suggests a launch date of 2019, but not with any real confidence. \nWe'll ask:\nWhen will the Apple car be officially announced? \nThe announcement will presumably take the form of Tim Cook or someone being on stage with an Apple car that appears to function, but any other formal announcement will count as long as it is officially from Apple, and somehow includes an actual physical car. (This need not be a production model, or even function, but you should be able to sit in it.)\nNote that \"never\" is an option here, included with any date after June 2021.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:39.461Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:43.784Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 105, "resolution_data": { @@ -65190,7 +65348,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:41.200Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:44.915Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 94, "resolution_data": { @@ -65209,7 +65367,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2016, [1% of absentee ballots were rejected](https://www.eac.gov/sites/default/files/eac_assets/1/6/2016_EAVS_Comprehensive_Report.pdf). 27.5% of rejections were for the signature on the ballot not matching the signature on the state's records, 20% of rejections were for missing a signature, and 23.1% of rejections were because the ballot was not recieved on time.\nRecently, a [round of cost-cutting measures in the postal service](https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/8/7/21358946/postal-service-mail-delays-election-trump-mail-in-ballots) combined with [Trump openly opposing additional funding due to mail-in voting](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/trump-opposes-usps-funding-394692) have meant that the postal service has wrote to 46 states and Washington DC that it [cannot guarantee](https://www.vox.com/2020/8/15/21369968/postal-service-trump-mail-ballot) that mail-in ballots sent by the usual deadlines will be recieved in time and advises that they be sent well in advance of the election. This raises the risk that many otherwise valid mail-in and absentee ballots will be rejected due to arriving late.\nWhat percentage of absentee ballots returned and submitted for counting in the US 2020 election will be rejected?\nResolution will be by the figure given in the 2020 [Election Administration and Voting Survey (EAVS) Comprehensive Report](https://www.eac.gov/research-and-data/studies-and-reports).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:43.163Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:46.829Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 222, "resolution_data": { @@ -65228,7 +65386,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Putin has been Russia's leader since December 31, 1999, after Yeltsin's resignation. He was elected President in 2000 and 2004, and then in 2012 and 2016. The constitution did not allow him to be President for 3 consecutive terms, so between 2008 and 2012, he was Prime Minister, but he's widely believed to have essentially run the country in that period as well. \nThe question will resolve when Putin, for whatever reason, is no longer either President or Prime Minister of Russia, as indicated by credible media reports.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:45.008Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:47.996Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 116, "resolution_data": { @@ -65247,7 +65405,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Many efforts to reduce the effects of climate change are focused on reducing carbon dioxide emissions from the various sectors that contribute to them, for example electricity/heat production, agriculture, transportation, and industrial uses. In most of these sectors, there are \"low-hanging fruit\": certain emissions that can be removed with existing technology, sometimes even saving money in the process. For example, solar and wind energy are now often cheaper than coal, and electric cars can be cost-competitive with gasoline cars in some contexts. On the other hand, there are many processes which generate CO2 that do not currently viable zero-emissions replacements, such as steel/concrete production or passenger airlines.\nOne way to make progress on CO2 reductions in spite of this would be to [directly capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_air_capture) CO2 from the air and store it, so that on balance, no additional CO2 is added to the atmosphere. Unfortunately, current projects from companies such as [Carbon Engineering](https://carbonengineering.com/) or [Climeworks](https://www.climeworks.com/) are typically at very small scales and quite expensive, on the order of [$600](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05357-w) per metric ton.\nWhen will direct air capture technology cost less than $50 per metric ton of carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere?\n---This cost is a few times higher than the current price of carbon offsets, such as from [TerraPass](http://terrapass.com), which may be implemented by e.g. capturing methane (a greenhouse gas) from landfills or farms. \n---The cost per ton must be calculated from the actual carbon removed and costs incurred from some actual direct air capture project, not a hypothetical estimate. \n---The project or company in question must have removed 1 million metric tons of CO2, equivalent to ~1% of the [current voluntary carbon market](https://www.ecosystemmarketplace.com/articles/voluntary-carbon-volume-hits-seven-year-high-on-demand-for-natural-climate-solutions). \n---The cost must include all lifecycle costs amortized per ton of CO2, including building the plant. For example, if a plant cost $1 billion and has removed 1 ton of carbon so far, the cost is $1 billion per ton. \n---Any offsetting revenues, such as from sale of the CO2 or derivative products, are not counted. \n---Cost is in 2020 US dollars, adjusted for inflation. \n---Resolution is by credible media report that this has occurred. Multiple reports can be combined; for example, sources on the construction cost of a plant, running costs, and total carbon removed so far can be used to compute an implied cost per ton. \nETA (2020-06-19) Planting trees does count as a carbon dioxide removal method for the purpose of this question.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:48.347Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:49.783Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 60, "resolution_data": { @@ -65266,7 +65424,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[51% attacks](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/1/51-attack.asp) are an important vulnerability of proof-of-work blockchains.\n[In 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghash.io#51%_attack_controversy), [Ghash.io](http://Ghash.io) gained more than 50% of the hashing power in Bitcoin’s mining network, which could have resulted in a [51% attack](https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/51%25_attack). Ghash instead voluntarily reduced their hashing power to below 40%. No mining pool has been above 50% of hashing power since then, although 51% attacks have been successfully conducted on blockchains with vastly smaller hash rates, such as Ethereum Classic (ETC).\nOn what date will a discernible, coordinated Bitcoin mining pool attain >=50% of the hashing power for any 24-hour period before Sep 15, 2025?\n1-- \nThe reported >=50% hash rate event can be reported as having taken place during any 24-hour period, and is not timezone-dependent.\n2-- \nIf the question does not resolve positively by Sep 15 2025, the question resolves as > Sep 15, 2025.\n3-- \nThe \"mining pool\" could either be a shared pool among unassociated miners, or a massive operation by a single entity.\n4-- \nNote that in hash rate distribution charts, \"Unknown\" does not necessarily mean a single unidentified mining pool is taking up that much hash rate, but simply that they aren't identified. To count for resolution, a pool must be discernibly combining their hash rate. If the hash rate from \"Unknown\" miners ever attained >=50% of the hash rate, but there were no reports to suggest a coordinated mining operation was taking up >=50% of the hash rate, then that does not count to positive resolution.\n5-- \nOne possible scenario is an identified miner openly mining the blocks and processing transactions like normal but with >50% the hashrate. Another (perhaps more likely) is a separate chain being mined in secret with >50% hashrate, until that alternative chain becomes bigger than the main one, causing a deep block reorg that had its hashrate come entirely from that secret miner. If this kind of secret-miner reorg happens, and it’s more than roughly 72 blocks deep, it could trigger positive resolution instantly, since that would tend to be be more than 12 hours worth of the blockchain, and it would've all been from one miner.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:58:52.029Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:54.957Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 91, "resolution_data": { @@ -65285,7 +65443,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Aside from condoms and vasectomies, men do not have any safe, simple, effective means of birth control. There have been many efforts to achieve this and currently there are [many approaches being worked on](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-08-03/why-we-can-t-have-the-male-pill), but despite [some optimism](http://www.thedailybeast.com/male-birth-control-without-condoms-will-be-here-by-2017) all are still in the experimental stage as of mid-2017. \nWhen will such contraception be available to US men?\nFor resolution, the contraceptive method must be effective (better than condoms), easy (a minor procedure compared with vasectomy) and reversible (self-reversing without further application, or reversed about as easily as the original procedure.) \nIt must also be actually available to anyone (of appropriate health, willingness to pay, etc.), outside of a clinical trial.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:12.417Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:57.460Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 78, "resolution_data": { @@ -65304,7 +65462,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The [Ragnarök Question Series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=cat:series--ragnarok) asks whether there will be a [biotechnological catastrophe](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1502/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-biotechnology-or-bioengineered-organisms/), for example from an engineered virus or a gene drive targeted on humans.\nSince biotechnology is becoming more advanced and cheaper as time goes on, potentially faster than humanity's abilities to prevent pandemics, it is plausible that the time of greatest risk from bioengineering will be in the future.\nGiven that a catastrophe resulting from a biotechnology or bioengineered organisms occurs before 2100, when will this occur?\nResolution will be on the day when it is first true that such a catastrophe (defined as one that claims at least 10% of the human population in any period of 5 years or less) that is principally due to the deployment of biotechnologies or bioengineered organisms has occurred, or ambiguous if no such catastrophe occurs.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:14.205Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:45:58.787Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 61, "resolution_data": { @@ -65334,7 +65492,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:16.026Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:00.097Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 56, "resolution_data": { @@ -65353,7 +65511,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Per [Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index)\nThe Human Development Index (HDI) is a statistic composite index of life expectancy, education (Literacy Rate, Gross Enrollment Ratio at different levels and Net Attendance Ratio), and per capita income indicators, which are used to rank countries into four tiers of human development. A country scores a higher HDI when the lifespan is higher, the education level is higher, and the gross national income GNI (PPP) per capita is higher.\n[The HDI of the world](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) has been increasing or stayed the same every year since its inception in 1990. However, according to the [World Bank](https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/updated-estimates-impact-covid-19-global-poverty-effect-new-data), the COVID-19 pandemic \"is likely to push between 88 and 115 million people into extreme poverty in 2020. [...] Using the data and projections available now, it appears that COVID-19 has already been the worst reversal on the path towards the goal of global poverty reduction in at least the last three decades.\" \nIn 2019, the HDI of the world was 0.731. The smallest change in a single year has been +0.000 (0.601 in 1992, 0.601 in 1993), and the largest change has been +0.007, which has occurred three times (0.601-0.608 1993-1994, 0.624-0.631 1997-1998, 0.669-0.676 2005-2006).\nWhat will the Human Development Index of the world be in 2020?\nThe question resolves according to the [Human Development Index](http://www.hdr.undp.org/en/data) for 2020. If that site is down, the Metaculus admins have the discretion to choose a reliable source. The question resolves when the 2020 world HDI is first made publicly available, and resolves ambiguously if it is not made publicly available by 2023.\nThe Human Development Index for 2020 will almost definitely be on the 2021 Human Development Report, not the 2020 Human Development Report. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:17.918Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:01.627Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 75, "resolution_data": { @@ -65372,7 +65530,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "This question is part of the Maximum Likelihood Round of the [Forecasting AI Progress Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/ai-progress-tournament/). You can view all other [questions in this round here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?search=contest:ml-round). \nLanguage modelling has been applied to a wide range of applications and domains with great success. To name a few, automatic speech recognition, machine translation, spelling correction, touchscreen “soft” keyboards and many natural language processing applications depend on the quality of language models.\nThe [WikiText language modelling dataset](https://arxiv.org/pdf/1609.07843.pdf) is a collection of over 100 million tokens extracted from the set of verified Good and Featured articles on Wikipedia. These articles have been reviewed by humans and are considered well written, factually accurate, broad in coverage, neutral in point of view, and stable. \nAs of writing this question, the state-of-the-art model for is\nkNN-LM [(Khandelwal et al. 2020)](https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.00172v2), which achieves a perplexity of 15.79 on the WikiTex-103 test set.\nAn excellent reference for tracking state-of-the-art models is [PapersWithCode](https://paperswithcode.com/sota/language-modelling-on-wikitext-103), which tracks performance data of ML models.\nWhat will the state-of-the-art language modelling performance on WikiText-103 be at 2026-12-14 in perplexity?\nThis question resolves as the lowest level of perplexity achieved by any language model on WikiText-103's test set before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT. Qualifying models need to be trained on only the WikiText-103's training set—no extra training data may be used.\nPerformance figures may be taken from e-prints, conference papers, peer-reviewed articles, and blog articles by reputable AI labs (including the associated code repositories). Published performance figures must be available before 2026-12-14, 11:59PM GMT to qualify.\nIn case the relevant performance figure is given as a confidence interval, the median value will be used to resolve the question. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:19.925Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:02.856Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 196, "resolution_data": { @@ -65402,7 +65560,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:21.722Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:04.640Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 234, "resolution_data": { @@ -65421,7 +65579,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2020, the United States of America was hit by a [disease outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States) causing many locales to issue [lockdowns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._state_and_local_government_response_to_the_2020_coronavirus_pandemic). These lockdowns have meant that many people have been unable to go to work, causing an [increase in the unemployment rate](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate), as well as stopping people from going to many shops.\nOn the 18th of March 2020, economist [Bryan Caplan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bryan_Caplan) wrote a [blog post](https://www.econlib.org/i-fear-stagflation-and-general-price-controls-are-coming/) titled \"I Fear Stagflation and Price Controls Are Coming\". Some excerpts:\nThe sudden shutdown of enormous sectors of the U.S. and global economy clearly constitute a massive short-run fall in Aggregate Supply. While Aggregate Demand is going to fall too, this time Aggregate Supply fell first... If AS [Aggregate Supply] falls a lot and AD [Aggregate Demand] falls a little, in contrast, we should expect a return of [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation) – high unemployment and high inflation simultaneously. The same holds if AS falls enormously and AD “only” falls a lot... The upshot: Though I’m not ready to [bet on it](https://www.econlib.org/my-complete-bet-wiki/), I fear that in 2021 we will see not only high unemployment but high inflation as well. (Complication: Official statistics may classify disemployed workers as “out of the labor force” because they’re too scared to hunt for a job). At this point, I would not be surprised by 10% unemployment and 6% inflation for 2021...\nHow bad will the inflation be?... [T]he public outcry against even high single-digit inflation will be deafening. Historically, governments have a standard response to such outcries: economy-wide price controls. Richard Nixon imposed them in 1971 when inflation was only 4.4% and restaurants were open. If and when the government does impose price controls, the textbook tells us what to expect: Ever-growing shortages, rationing, black markets, and anti-business witch-hunts.\nIn this question, we test one aspect of this fear:\nBy what percentage will the CPI increase in 2021?\nThe question will resolve based on CPI-U data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics data as of February 1st 2022. The resolution will be the percentage change of CPI-U from December 2020 to December 2021.\nOther questions testing aspects of Caplan's post:\n---[What will unemployment be in the US in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4032/what-will-unemployment-be-in-the-us-in-2021/) \n---[Will the US see economy-wide price controls in 2021?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4035/will-the-us-see-mass-price-controls-in-2021/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:25.450Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:08.089Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 230, "resolution_data": { @@ -65440,7 +65598,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The era of YouTube superstars is upon us. Earlier this year, MTV catalogued 10 YouTube stars who are earning [8 figure incomes](http://www.mtv.com.au/youtube/news/heres-a-list-of-the-richest-youtubers-of-2018) off the platform. Topping the list is DanTDM, a gaming commentator who's raking in over $16 million. Wow.\nThese folks are in a [rare category](https://www.inc.com/minda-zetlin/even-youtube-stars-with-14-million-monthly-viewers-earn-less-than-17000-a-year-research-shows.html). But it is only a matter of time before one of these YouTube celebrities leverages their fame to run for high public office. The question is really not if, but when, will this happen?\nIn order to trigger a positive result, the following must occur:\n---A person becomes widely known to the public FIRST via a vlog on YouTube and gets at least 1M subscribers... \n---He or she runs for U.S. Congress (party affiliation is irrelevant for our question) and wins. \nWhen will this first happen?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:29.037Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:10.758Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 38, "resolution_data": { @@ -65459,7 +65617,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Much of the US economy is shut down in the midst of the Covid-19 crisis. At some point, businesses will reopen, likely starting with those that are important to everyday life and do not involve large groups of people. A reasonable proxy for the general reopening of the economy is the reopening of Disneyland in California as it is not critical to everyday life and does involve large crowds. If Disneyland is open, it means everything probably is as well.\nIf Disneyland in Anaheim, California reopens its doors to the public, on what day will it first do so? For the purpose of this question, the reopening day is the first day when all of the following are satisfied:\n---The Disneyland website (currently hosted [here](https://disneyland.disney.go.com/destinations/disneyland/)) is accessible and does not indicate that the park is closed (it currently has a notice about temporary closure) \n---Tickets to the park can be bought on that website \n---At least three pictures of people visiting the park for fun are published on social media or press \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:33.909Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:12.529Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 378, "resolution_data": { @@ -65478,7 +65636,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "There as been discussion in mid-2018 as to whether AI research may be entering a new \"winter,\" as argued in [this article](https://venturebeat.com/2018/06/04/the-ai-winter-is-well-on-its-way/). We shall define an index as follows:\n--- \n+1 if on Dec. 1, 2021 [5-year Google trends search](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%205-y&q=%22AI%20winter%22) on \"AI winter\" shows the May 27-June 2 2018 peak (which is 100 at launch) to be at < 25, indicating that a value four times as large has occurred between those two dates; -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if two or more keynote talks at NIPS or IJCAI contain the phrase \"AI winter\" in any of those two meetings taking place in 2020 and 2021. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if the fraction of [listed YC funded startups](https://yclist.com) that mention \"AI\" or \"machine learning\" in their description is lower in the first half of 2021 than in the first half of 2018. -1 otherwise.\n--- \n+1 if search of the CS section of the arXiv for abstracts containing \"artificial intelligence\" OR \"machine learning\" for jan-may 2021 returns less than 3000 items, about 50% more than the [corresponding search for 2018](https://arxiv.org/search/advanced?advanced=&terms-0-operator=AND&terms-0-term=%22artificial+intelligence%22&terms-0-field=abstract&terms-1-operator=OR&terms-1-term=%22machine+learning%22&terms-1-field=abstract&classification-physics_archives=all&date-year=2018&date-filter_by=date_range&date-from_date=2018-01-01&date-to_date=2018-06-01&size=50&order=-announced_date_first). -1 otherwise. (For reference, 2018 returns 1922; 2017 returns 756; 2016 returns 420.)\n--- \n+1 if the ratio of results returns in the above archive search limited to \"machine learning\" divided by those limited to \"artificial intelligence\" is higher in 2021 than the 2018 value of 1752/233 = 7.52; -1 otherwise.\nAny of the above can resolve ambiguously if there is not a good consensus resolution based on reliable data. If the total number of items that resolve unambiguously is N, the index is given by the total score divided by N.\nWhat will be the late-2021 value of the AI winter index? \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:35.692Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:13.722Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 295, "resolution_data": { @@ -65508,9 +65666,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:39.294Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:16.071Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 143, + "numforecasts": 144, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2020-02-11T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -65527,7 +65685,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[According to the US constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Admission_to_the_Union), it takes an act of congress to admit a new state into the union. The last time a state was admitted was in 1959, when Hawaii was admitted into the union.\nQuestion: When will the United States admit a new state?\nThis question resolves positively when at least five reliable media outlets report that a new state is admitted into the United States. A \"new state\" is defined as a state which wasn't in the union in 2019.\nIt resolves as \"> Dec 31, 2050\" if a new state is not admitted before the end of 2050.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:42.680Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:18.467Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 163, "resolution_data": { @@ -65557,7 +65715,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:44.734Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:19.702Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { @@ -65587,9 +65745,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:47.974Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:21.832Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 105, + "numforecasts": 106, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2019-12-26T23:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -65606,7 +65764,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Public transport has long been thought to help [lower individual passenger car emissions](https://www.nationalexpresstransit.com/blog/why-is-public-transportation-good-for-the-environment/) as they reduce person-miles per gallon, and reduce the amount of space taken up on the road. While diesel powered buses are far from the cleanest vehicles, movements towards adopting electric public transportation could vastly improve public transport’s emissions.\nChina has been the leader in electric busing and public transportation, with [72 thousand](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) new electric bus registrations in 2019 alone. By 2017, China’s bus fleet was comprised of approximately [17% electric buses](https://www.sustainable-bus.com/electric-bus/electric-bus-public-transport-main-fleets-projects-around-world/), a number far above the mere decimal point percentages in Europe and the United States.\nHowever, with new actions taken by the EU in attempts to become [carbon neutral by 2050](https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/strategies/2050_en), there are new extreme measures taking place to electrify transportation across Europe in both the 2020 and 2030 climate and energy packages. This should see a large number of new registrations in Europe over the next several years. \nNorth America lags behind Europe with only [one quarter the number of registrations](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020) in 2019 (560 total), and fewer registrations than the year before in 2018 (620 total). South America and India continue to consistently fall behind the United States in numbers as well. \nChanging the nature of transportation is essential to protecting the environment, and if more options are available for consumers to choose outside of individual, gas-powered transport, then we might be able to keep global warming under the [1.5-2 degree Celsius limit](https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/6-ways-remove-carbon-pollution-sky#:~:text=To%20keep%20global%20temperature%20rise,some%20carbon%20from%20the%20atmosphere.). \nOther Related Questions:\n[Electric Bus Registrations in Europe 2021](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5572/electric-bus-registrations-2021/)\nHow many new EV buses will be registered worldwide in 2025?\nResolution criteria will come from IEA global report outlook for 2025. An example outlook for 2020 using data from 2019 is available [here](https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2020). This report should become available sometimes in 2026.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:49.654Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:22.970Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 33, "resolution_data": { @@ -65625,7 +65783,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Disease:\nis a particular abnormal condition that negatively affects the structure or function of all or part of an organism, and that is not due to any immediate external injury. Diseases are often known to be medical conditions that are associated with specific symptoms and signs.\nAccording to [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death), disease is responsible for nearly 97% of human deaths in the world, as of 2017. \nFuturists have long speculated that humanity may one day have a cure to all diseases, and that at that point, people will only die from injuries such as intentional suicide and accidents. Another possibility is that we may discover a way to prevent the aging process, providing humans with perpetually healthy life. Writing in 1794, Marquis de Condorcet had [predicted](https://sourcebooks.fordham.edu/mod/condorcet-progress.asp),\nWould it be absurd now to suppose that the improvement of the human race should be regarded as capable of unlimited progress? That a time will come when death would result only from extraordinary accidents or the more and more gradual wearing out of vitality, and that, finally, the duration of the average interval between birth and wearing out has itself no specific limit whatsoever? No doubt man will not become immortal, but cannot the span constantly increase between the moment he begins to live and the time when naturally, without illness or accident, he finds life a burden?\nThis question resolves on the first year during which the majority of deaths in the world, as reported by a reputable organization, are listed as originating from non-disease related causes, AND the proportion of (deaths in that year)/(population of the world at the beginning of the year) < 1%. The intention of this question is to determine the first year during which medicine has eliminated most disease. Therefore, the second condition is there to prevent global catastrophic risks from spurring a false resolution.\nOne such organization that reports death statistics is the World Health Organization. You can see their report for deaths in 2019 [here](https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/311696/WHO-DAD-2019.1-eng.pdf).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:51.568Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:24.179Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 35, "resolution_data": { @@ -65655,7 +65813,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:53.400Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:25.699Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 65, "resolution_data": { @@ -65674,7 +65832,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Since the early days of \"machine code\" programming using a very limited instruction set, more and more high-level programming languages have been developed that layer atop this fundamental level. It is common, for example, have a Python script that calls a routine written in C and compiled into machine code. Other languages (like Mathematica) are even higher-level. Still, even a high-level language requires unambiguous specification of the steps required for the task at hand. \nIt would be much nicer to specify the desired task rather than exactly how to do it, i.e. to have systems that can write programs to specification. Such systems have had limited success so far, but there are signs of significant progress. [This recent review](https://openreview.net/pdf?id=ByldLrqlx), for example, mentions new efforts to \"induce\" programs from a large set of input-output pairs. [A paper by Neelakantan, Le, and Sutskever](https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.04834), for instance, introduce a \"Neural Programmer,\" which augments a neural network with a set of basic operations that the network can be trained to use to solve a task; they showed success in training the network to reproduce the action of a set of simple programs.\nWhile machine learning (ML) systems like the Neural Programmer don't quite output (say) Python programs written to some specification, they do create a program to accomplish a particular task. Given a system to translate a specification into a trainable task, and to translate the Neural Programmer's instruction list into a typical language, this may not be that far away, at least for simple programming tasks. So we ask:\nHow long until a machine-learning system can take a simple text description and turn it into a program coded in C/Python? \nAs a concrete challenge, we'll ask that in 2 of 5 trials, the system can take the specification of a simple program from a list comparable to the first two sections of [this one](https://adriann.github.io/programming_problems.html), and output an executable C or Python code that does the assigned task. To avoid making this mostly about language parsing, the plaintext specification can be \"translated\" by a human operator into a plaintext description of lesser length prior to input into the ML system, so that the system functions something like a very high-level programming language. (This still leaves a major challenge of a system that turns the specification into a task for which the neural network can be trained.) \nThe existence of such a system will be determined by actual demonstration, OR by agreement by two experts in the field that a comparably capable system exists.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:55.552Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:26.945Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 265, "resolution_data": { @@ -65704,9 +65862,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:57.385Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:28.137Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 153, + "numforecasts": 154, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-12-04T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -65723,7 +65881,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[36 million people worldwide have total vision loss.](https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01107-8) Full availability of prevention and treatment would address many, but not all of those cases. Many millions are blind as a result of conditions that currently have no effective treatment, such as age-related macular degeneration. AMD is already a leading cause of incurable blindness in developed countries, and likely to become increasingly prevalent worldwide as standards of living and life expectancies increase.\nWhen enough functioning cells remain, as in most cases of AMD, it is possible to restore vision by implanting electrodes directly in the retina, to which the output of a camera is connected. To date [four such devices have been approved](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6350159/) by regulators. The best visual acuity achieved, by the [Argus II](https://secondsight.com/discover-argus/), has been 1.8 logMAR (20/1260) over an 18×11° section – a life-changing improvement to be sure, but still well within the ≥1 logMAR score region considered legally blind.\nHow good will the best available retinal prosthesis be in 2030?\nThe question resolves according to the lowest achieved logMAR score for a retinal implant approved for general medical use in jurisdictions totalling populations of at least 50 million people.\nThe logMAR score (or equivalent) must be reported in a credible peer-reviewed journal article or in official submissions to regulators, made under penalty for misstatement, which were accepted in approving the device. It may be the best reported case, but it must refer to a normal, unmodified device in the configuration and manner of use approved by regulators, not to a one-off or prototype. It must be scaled to the Argus II's 198-square-degree vision field. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T10:59:59.251Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:29.584Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -65742,7 +65900,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Recently there's been increasing interest in understanding the drivers of prediction markets' performance. One such potential driver is the number of predictors active on the site. Since its inception, Metaculus community performance has improved from 0.175 over the 2016-2018 period to 0.112 from 2018-2020. Whether the change in performance can be attributed to a change in the community size remains unclear, so we would like to prospectively estimate how performance will change as the community grows.\nWhat will the community median's Brier score (at closing time) be when Metaculus has 300 predictors per question?\nWhen the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions reaches 300 for the first time, this question will resolve as the Metaculus community median's Brier score for the past six months.\nAs of November 16, the median number of predictors on the latest 50 resolved binary questions was 117, and the Brier score was 0.131.\nIf the median predictor count does not reach 300 before the resolution date, this question will resolve as ambiguous. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:01.097Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:30.860Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 80, "resolution_data": { @@ -65772,9 +65930,9 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:03.073Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:32.142Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": 134, + "numforecasts": 135, "resolution_data": { "publish_time": "2018-11-05T08:00:00Z", "resolution": null, @@ -65791,7 +65949,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Supercomputers just keep getting more capable. The website [top500.org](https:/www.top500.org) maintains [a list of the top 500 supercomputers](https://www.top500.org/lists/2016/11/), on which individual U.S. and Chinese systems have been vying for the top spots. \nViewed globally, the entire Earth is starting to turn into a supercomputer. Artificial computation now consumes ~2.5 terrawatts of power, and Earth is approaching a computational rate of 0.0001 artificial bit operations per gram per second (and that goes for all 6x10^27 of the planet's grams).\nAccording to Top500, as of November 2016, the world's most powerful supercomputer is the Sunway TaihuLight at the National Supercomputing Center in Wuxi, China. It incorporates 10,649,600 individual 1.45 GHz cores to run at a peak speed of 125,435.9 Teraflops (125 quadrillion floating point operations per second), while consuming 15,371 kW of power.\nComputational progress is gradually turning once-obscure prefixes -- giga, tera, peta -- into household words. The next frontier is \"exa\", as in exaflop performance consisting of one [quintillion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_and_short_scales) (10^18) floating point operations per second. At peak operation, the TaihuLight machine runs at 1/8th of an exaflop.\nAt what date will the first machine achieving exaflop Rpeak performance be listed on [Top500.org?](http://Top500.org?) (List updates tend to occur twice per year, in June and in November.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:04.916Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:33.500Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 147, "resolution_data": { @@ -65821,7 +65979,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:09.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:36.728Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 162, "resolution_data": { @@ -65840,7 +65998,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In 2017, maverick climber Alex Honnold shocked to world by becoming the first person ever to free solo the ~3,000 foot El Capitan in Yosemite. According to reports, it took him a little less than 4 hours to complete the journey--without any ropes or safety harnasses. \nNational Geographic [called the feat](https://www.nationalgeographic.com/adventure/features/athletes/alex-honnold/most-dangerous-free-solo-climb-yosemite-national-park-el-capitan/) \"the moon-landing of free-soloing\" and reported: \nIt’s hard to overstate the physical and mental difficulties of a free solo ascent of the peak, which is considered by many to be the epicenter of the rock climbing world. It is a vertical expanse stretching more than a half mile up—higher than the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. From the meadow at the foot of El Capitan, climbers on the peak’s upper reaches are practically invisible to the naked eye.\nIn June 2018, Honnold returned to the scene of his triumph. He joined forces with fellow climbing prodigy, Tommy Caldwell, to take the Nose of El Capitan--this time with safety gear--and broke the 2 hour mark, finishing in just 1:58:07.\nHans Florine, who set a record for ascending the Nose in 2002, said of Honnold and Caldwell's feat: \"It’s like breaking the two-hour marathon barrier, but vertically,”\nPer [National Geographic](https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/06/alex-honnold-tommy-caldwell-speed-record-el-capitan-nose-yosemite-culture/): \nThe Nose is widely considered the greatest big-wall climbing route on Earth. It runs straight up the prow of the massive granite formation known as El Capitan and is the monolith’s most recognizable feature. Every spring, it draws the world’s most adventurous climbers to test their mettle. Most take three to five days to scale the challenging terrain, “camping” on the wall in portaledges anchored to the stone. For elite climbers, the time to beat is NIAD, or Nose-in-a-Day, climbing it all without an overnight. \nAccording to official record keepers, when will someone (or some climbing team, including possibly Honnold and/or Caldwell again) scale El Capitan in less than 1:58:07?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:11.409Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:37.888Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 77, "resolution_data": { @@ -65859,7 +66017,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "related question:\n---[Before Q1 2030, what will be the highest level of calendar year percentage GDP growth in the US?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2622/what-will-be-the-highest-level-of-annual-gdp-growth-in-the-us-before-2030/) \nEconomic growth is of central importance to many people and events. Presidential elections seem affected by whether the economy was doing well at the time or not. [GDP growth rates also relate to the geopolitical power races](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)). With the 2020 elections just about completed, and the economy affected by the Coronavirus pandemic, one may wonder:\nWhat will USA's GDP/c growth rate be in 2020-2029?\nThis resolves as USA's average GDP/capita growth according to IMF in 2020-2029 (inflation adjusted). Specifically, it resolves a the geometric mean in percent, calculated as\nthis question will use data reported by the IMF to calculate the average GDP per capita. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:15.188Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:39.247Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 97, "resolution_data": { @@ -65878,7 +66036,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "We have a number of questions regarding possible achievements in life extension, but none that measure the effect these achievements might have on a large cohort of people.\nIn 2005, the US Census Bureau estimated the country would have 114,000 centenarians by the year 2010. The actual number reported in the 2010 census was less than half that amount at exactly 53,364 people, or approximately 0.0173% of the population at the time.\nAs of 2014, [estimates by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db233.pdf), place the number of American centenarians at approximately 72,000, roughly 0.022% of the population at the time.\nThis question asks: what percentage of US residents will be aged 100 years or older on January 1 2050, according to data released either by national statistical authorities such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Center for Health Statistics or other credible independent statisticians?\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:16.892Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:40.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 79, "resolution_data": { @@ -65908,7 +66066,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:18.849Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:41.718Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 344, "resolution_data": { @@ -65927,7 +66085,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Space exploration is a relatively dangerous endeavour. As of 2018, there have been 18 verified astronaut and cosmonaut fatalities during spaceflight. Astronauts have also died while training for space missions, including the Apollo 1 launch pad fire which killed an entire crew of three. There have also been some non-astronaut fatalities during spaceflight-related activities. See [this list](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_spaceflight-related_accidents_and_incidents) for more details. \nFor the purposes of this question, a 'spaceflight-related fatality' is any death of a human being resulting from accidents and incidents that occur during flight (from liftoff until the moment of landing), final preparation for flight, or training for manned space missions. For this question, a 'space mission' is any planned mission to reach an altitude of 100km or greater above mean sea level. 'Final preparation for flight' refers to events taking place from the moment a vehicle is in position at its launch site up until the moment of liftoff, cancellation, or other termination of the mission.\nNot included are deaths resulting from testing, assembly or integration of manned or unmanned spacecraft (for instance an assembly worker falling from height, or being killed by a fire), or associated with the assembly, testing, maintenance or use of ballistic missile weapons.\nHow many such fatalities will occur between January 1 2020 and January 1 2025?\nIn the event that persons are declared missing as a result of a qualifying event, they shall be considered dead if and when they are declared to be presumed dead by competent authorities.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:20.768Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:43.135Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 118, "resolution_data": { @@ -65957,7 +66115,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:22.664Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:44.390Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 263, "resolution_data": { @@ -65987,7 +66145,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:32.348Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:51.465Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 237, "resolution_data": { @@ -66006,7 +66164,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In related questions, we asked whether the Collatz Conjecture is true, when it will be resolved one way or the other, and whether a corresponding halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\nFor completeness and symmetry, this question asks when the halting problem will be resolved.\nWe can write the Collatz Program in pseudocode as\ncollatz(n) = if (n is 1) return 1 else if (n is even) return collatz(n/2) else return collatz(3n + 1) \nwhere input n is a positive integer.\nPossible inputs to collatz() are divided into three sets:\n---Set 1: Inputs for which collatz() halts, after eventually encountering a power of 2 \n---Set 2: Inputs for which collatz() eventually encounters a number twice, and then cycles forever \n---Set 3: Inputs that cause collatz() to forever avoid both repetition and powers of 2, exploring larger and larger numbers \nThe Conjecture is that all integers belong to Set 1, and that Sets 2 and 3 are empty.\nThe halting problem for the Collatz Program asks whether there can exist a program that takes as input an integer n, always halts itself, and returns 1 if collatz(n) halts and 0 if it does not halt. \nIt is possible that the Conjecture is false, and also that the halting problem for the Collatz Problem is not computable, in the same sense that the more general [Halting Problem](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halting_problem) is not computable.\nThere are a number of ways in which it could turn out that the halting problem for the Collatz Program is computable.\n---If the Conjecture is true (and collatz()) always halts) then the halt-checking program is trivial: always return 1. \n---If the Conjecture is false, but Sets 2 and 3 are finite, then a halt-checking program could check a finite list of inputs for which to return 0, and return 1 otherwise. \n---If all inputs are either in Set 1 (halts) or Set 2 (cycles), then a modified version of collatz() could run until it either halts (returning 1) or detects a cycle (returning 0). Similarly, if Set 3 is finite, then a combination of checking a finite list and checking for cycles would suffice. \n---Possibly all three sets are infinite, but there is still some simple (or at least computable) rule that can determine membership without running collatz() forever. \nWhen will this halting problem be resolved? It could be:\n---At exactly the same time that the Collatz Conjecture is resolved, especially if the Conjecture is shown to be true. \n---Later than the Conjecture is shown to be false. It could be that no algorithm is found for separating Set 1 from Sets 2 and 3, but also no proof is found that such an algorithm cannot exist. \n---Earlier than the Conjecture is resolved (as was pointed out in a comment on a related question). It could be proven, for example, that only a finite number of inputs cause collatz() to not halt, without resolving whether that number is zero. \nThis question will resolve with the date of publication in a major mathematics journal of an article that either 1) proves the Conjecture to be true (with the halting problem as a trivial implication), or 2) explicitly resolves the halting problem.\nOther questions on the Collatz Conjecture:\n---[Is the halting problem for the Collatz Program computable?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2803/is-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-computable/) \n---[Is the Collatz Conjecture true?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2802/is-the-collatz-conjecture-true/) \n---[When will the Collatz Conjecture be resolved? ](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2799/when-will-the-collatz-conjecture-be-resolved/) \n---[When will the halting problem for the Collatz Program be resolved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2806/when-will-the-halting-problem-for-the-collatz-program-be-resolved/) \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:34.346Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:52.658Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 74, "resolution_data": { @@ -66025,7 +66183,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "From [a review](https://academic.oup.com/reep/article/12/1/4/4804315) of the economic impacts of climate change,\nThe impacts of climate change are many and diverse. Determining whether these impacts are beneficial or detrimental, small or large, depends on the sector, location, and time being considered. Unfortunately, a reading of the literature on the impacts of climate change (Field and Canziani 2014) is likely to leave a lay reader confused. It is very difficult to make sense of the many and different effects: crops hit by worsening drought, crops growing faster because of carbon dioxide fertilization, heat stress increasing, cold stress decreasing, sea levels rising, increasing energy demand for cooling, decreasing energy demand for heating, infectious disease spreading, species going extinct. Thus we need aggregate indicators to assess whether climate change is, on balance, a good thing or a bad thing and whether the climate problem is small or large relative to the many other problems that society faces.\nA common aggregate measure economists have given is the impact of climate change on GDP by the end of the century. From a [2015 survey of climate economists](https://www.edf.org/sites/default/files/expertconsensusreport.pdf),\nOn average, these experts predicted losses of between 5% and 10% of GDP [by 2090], though there was considerable variation. The mean and median estimates were GDP losses of 10.2% and 5.5%, respectively, with a variance of 133%.\nHere I will define damage incurred by climate change as the time-integral of the difference in non-discounted value of world GDP on a path with warming-inducing emissions as a percentage of total GDP along the path without emissions.\nThis question asks, what will be the total damage incurred by climate change during the 21st century, as given by the definition of damage above? The resolution will be determined by a credible estimate from economists in, or after the year 2101.\nMetaculus admins will determine, in consultation with the community, which estimate is most credible. In general, a robust meta-analysis which aggregates estimates from high-quality studies is the best source for resolution. Barring the availability of such a meta-analysis, a survey of experts is preferred. Barring the availability of either source, a high quality study will determine resolution. If none of these sources are available, this question resolves ambiguously.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:36.245Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:53.812Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 27, "resolution_data": { @@ -66044,7 +66202,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In June 2016, Uma Valeti, CEO of Memphis Meats reported a production cost of about €36,200/kg, which represents an 18-fold price reduction compared with the €650,000/kg burger unveiled in 2013. Mark Post, the chief science officer of Mosa Meat, [announced in late 2015 that](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lI9AwxKfTY), by combining pharmaceutical bioreactor technology to existing tissue culture techniques it'd be possible reduce costs to €60/kg of cultured ground beef. [(Sentience Politics, 2016; p.g. 6)](https://ea-foundation.org/files/cultured-meat.pdf) points out that existing farm subsidies essentially create a barrier to entry for clean meat producers:\nwhile the cost of cultured meat should aim to match that of regular meat, the current market average of meat is artificially low as a result of heavy government subsidising of animal agriculture.\nMark Post has also made more predictions. In 2017, he [predicted that](https://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-27/scientists-set-sights-on-bringing-lab-grown-meat-to-the-supermarket/) it will take 3–4 years (i.e., 2020–2021) before cultured burgers are on the market for £10–11 (~$12–$14 USD) per burger, and in around 7 years time (~2024) they will be in supermarkets at lower prices. However, [regulatory uncertainty](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2018/07/clean-meat-staking-its-claim-amid-regulatory-uncertainty/), might prevent clean meat companies from scaling anytime soon, thereby blocking the path to substantial cost reductions. \nWhat will the lowest retail price, in USD per kg, of any product containing 50% clean meat be, in the calendar year 2026?\nResolution\nThis question resolves as the lowest reported price, in 2019 USD per kg, of any product listed in a retail supermarkets that contains at least 50% clean meat by weight. Qualifying retail supermarkets are those based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland.\nClean meat is here defined as meat that is grown primarily or entirely in cell culture, rather than in an animal’s body. Qualifying meats are beef, any type of poultry, pork or fish. The clean meat product must be for human consumption. Moreover, the product must have a weight exceeding 40 grams (so that the clean meat content weighs at least 20 grams). Mixtures of clean meat and other products qualify if it contains at least 50% clean meat by weight.\nEvidence of the clean meat containing product's listing price and composition should come from credible media reports, online supermarket listings, or from at least three reports sourced from social media and/or submissions by Metaculus users/admin.\nThe following sales do not identify the price of the product for the purpose of this question: samples given out for free, sales discounted with one-time discounts or discounts derived from coupons, or programmes such as loyalty schemes or credit card membership, amongst other pricing schemes valid for limited time or only available to a subset of customers.\nA supermarket is here defined as the company that operates physical self-service retail markets that sell foods and household merchandise. The supermarket must have at least ten physical stores (although the clean meat product need only be on offer in at least one store). A [list of examples of U.S. based supermarkets](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cs0GXkqp_OtPCbohgbI-4wsr7S6Tpt11Rt4Wrop-jd8/edit?usp=sharing) that qualify today can be found here. These will continue to qualify as supermarkets as long as these operate at least ten physical self-service retail markets.\nPrices are to be adjusted to 2019 prices using a widely used national CPI. Credibility of estimates shall be decided by Metaculus admin. In case the retail price is denominated in currencies other than USD, the conversion shall be made using the relevant spot exchange rate at the time of resolving.\nIf no credible reports indicate that clean meat products containing at least 50% clean meat are sold in the calendar year 2026 in retail supermarkets based in either the U.S. or based in the European Union as of August, 2019, and Switzerland, the question resolves ambiguous.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:38.157Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:55.020Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 98, "resolution_data": { @@ -66063,7 +66221,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "[The Supreme Court of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States) (SCOTUS) is the highest court in the federal judiciary of the United States. Established pursuant to Article III of the U.S. Constitution in 1789, it has original jurisdiction over a small range of cases, such as suits between two or more states, and those involving ambassadors.\nIt also has ultimate (and largely discretionary) appellate jurisdiction over all federal court and state court cases that involve a point of federal constitutional or statutory law. [The Court has the power of judicial review,](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marbury_v._Madison) the ability to invalidate a statute for violating a provision of the Constitution or an executive act for being unlawful. However, it may act only within the context of a case in an area of law over which it has jurisdiction.\nThe Court may decide cases having political overtones, but it has ruled that it does not have power to decide nonjusticiable political questions. Each year it agrees to hear about 100–150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review.\nBecause justices can serve for life, potentially spending decades on the Court, vacancies are relatively rare and are considered major political events in the United States.\nAccording to [federal statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judiciary_Act_of_1869), the Court consists of the Chief Justice of the United States and eight Associate Justices. Once appointed, justices have lifetime tenure unless they resign, retire, or are removed from office.\nThe most recent vacancy arose in 2020, when on September 18, 2020, [Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruth_Bader_Ginsburg) died. [Judge Amy Coney Barrett was nominated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Coney_Barrett_Supreme_Court_nomination) to fill the vacancy that arose.\nWhen will the next US Supreme Court vacancy arise?\nFor the purposes of this question, a vacancy arises when a sitting justice dies, is removed from office, or on the date that their resignation or retirement (e.g. the assumption of senior status) takes effect (as opposed to the date that the intention to resign or retire is announced). A vacancy will also be considered to arise on the date it becomes legally permissible for a president to nominate a new justice in the event that new seats are added to the court.\nThis question closes retroactively one day before a sitting justice dies, announces his or her intention to resign or retire, or proceedings begin to remove him or her from office. Such proceedings are deemed to begin when a majority of the House of Representatives votes to approve an indictment to impeach a sitting justice.\nIf the Supreme Court is abolished and replaced with a new final appellate body before this question resolves, this question resolves ambiguously. \n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:40.253Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:56.209Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 178, "resolution_data": { @@ -66082,7 +66240,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "Last December, India's Cabinet Committee on Security greenlighted the building of the Indian Neutrino Observatory (INO) project.\nWhen completed, the INO will be India's largest basic science facility. Researchers [plan to use it](https://www.hindustantimes.com/mumbai-news/india-first-neutrino-observatory-gets-green-nod-from-centre/story-IlURjfCDKcbKX077fbpglI.html) to \"study atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in the earth’s atmosphere.\"\nPer [The Hindu Business Line](https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/science/all-you-want-to-know-about-the-neutrino-controversy/article23554745.ece),\n[the INO] is an underground project and will comprise a complex of caverns. The main cavern, which will house the huge neutrino detector [50-kilo tonne magnetised iron calorimeter], will be 130 m long, 26 m wide, and 30 m high. Two smaller caverns will be used for setting up experiments for neutrino double detector and dark matter.\nOf course, the project has not been without setbacks. Locals at Western Ghats voiced concerns about radiation and environmental damage. And neutrino detectors are [incredibly sensitive](https://www.quora.com/How-do-neutrino-detectors-work) and fickle machines. And even when they work properly, the process of detecting a neutrino--and then [confirming that detection](https://icecube.wisc.edu/outreach/neutrinos) carefully--can be achingly slow.\nTo that end, on what date will researchers publicly announce the first confirmed neutrino detection at INO? \nResolution should be triggered by an official announcement from the research group that a detection has been achieved (even if not published). If necessary, a 99.9% confidence level for detection can be specified.\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:42.101Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:57.402Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 54, "resolution_data": { @@ -66101,7 +66259,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "The ancient pyramids of Egypt are ridiculously cool.\nConstruction began over 4500 years ago, and these awesome structures, despite having [been raided](http://www.ancient-egypt-online.com/ancient-egypt-tomb-robbers.html) over the centuries and stripped of their beautiful [white limestone](https://www.fastcodesign.com/3037815/the-great-pyramid-used-to-be-so-shiny-it-glowed) exteriors, inspire millions. \nRebuilding them would be a massive project, although it probably could be done for a cool [$5 billion](https://www.livescience.com/18589-cost-build-great-pyramid-today.html) or so--for just the Great Pyramid of Giza, that is.\nThey've lasted 5 millennia, and they will almost certainly endure after every human alive today is long dead. But the pyramids will not last forever.\nAs this [Quora post](https://www.quora.com/If-humanity-died-today-how-long-would-the-pyramids-of-Giza-last) notes:\nThe Rocky mountains in the US were formed over ~70 million years, ~70 million years ago. If geologic processes can turn an ocean into the Rockies in that time frame, it will make short work of the pyramids. \nThis other Quora post gives a [more precise assessment](https://www.quora.com/If-left-to-the-elements-when-will-the-pyramids-of-Egypt-erode): \nKnowing that the pyramids 4000 years ago were made of polished limestone that would have glowed, we can say that it has eroded over time. I am not sure what the exact rate of limestone degradation is, and you could probably work it out by that rate, but by what I can see, around 2 layers of blocks and various bits have fallen from the sides of the larger pyramid. Many people have said that the pyramids would last 1 million years or even until the world ended, but I’d say around 10,000 to 100,000 years based on current observations.\nWhat do you think? Assuming that humans do not intervene but the pyramids are just left to nature's tender mercies, how many years will it take, before the Great Pyramids are all eroded away into undetectability?\n(Needless to say, this is one of those questions unlikely to be resolved on a timescale anyone cares about; it's just for fun.)\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:44.162Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:46:58.939Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 203, "resolution_data": { @@ -66120,7 +66278,7 @@ "platform": "Metaculus", "description": "In [Modeling the Human Trajectory](https://www.openphilanthropy.org/sites/default/files/Modeling-the-human-trajectory.pdf), David Roodman introduces an internally consistent statistical model of world economic history. It casts a Gross World Product (GWP) series as a sample path whose specification is a stochastic calculus-based growth model.\nTheir univariate fit implies that, conditional on the 2019 GWP, explosion to infinity is essentially inevitable. It finds a median explosion date of 2047.\nAs of 2018, GWP was $82 trillion in 2010 US$.\nWhat will real Gross World Product be in 2047, in trillions of 2020 US$?\nReal Gross World Product is determined by a reliable source of global economic data, such as [the World Bank](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD).\n", "options": [], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:45.977Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:00.408Z", "qualityindicators": { "numforecasts": 120, "resolution_data": { @@ -66134,301 +66292,108 @@ "optionsstringforsearch": "" }, { - "title": "Will American mask usage be 75% or higher on April 14th, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-american-mask-usage-be-75-or-higher-on-april-14th-2021", + "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on April 14, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elonmusk-account-on-april-14-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the American \"observed mask usage\" metric will be above 75% on April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve when data is first made available for the date of April 14th, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the metric is 75% or higher on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. There will be no delay in resolutions for any incoming data updates or revisions past the initial publication of data for April 14th. The resolution source for this market will be the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s website, https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=mask-use&tab=trend. Specific, non-rounded data is available for download at http://www.healthdata.org/covid/data-downloads. This data will be prioritized for resolution in the event that the headline number displayed on Health Data's graph does not accurately reflect the specific, non-rounded datapoint. Observed mask use represents the percentage of the population who say they always wear a mask in public. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @ElonMusk, shall exceed 13,963 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @ElonMusk, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@ElonMusk\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @ElonMusk just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Elon Musk, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @ElonMusk will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.04796853499144450688949206400915807", + "name": "Less than 30", + "probability": "0.01136729850303477126119678835710172", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9520314650085554931105079359908419", + "name": "30-40", + "probability": "0.01989643540744379501637571694110739", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "41-50", + "probability": "0.04919829785109544541483187314760015", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "51-60", + "probability": "0.08931937445748414864105879235823116", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "61-70", + "probability": "0.1813960510152739434476317754834911", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "71-80", + "probability": "0.364547763112811224474522086888735", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "More than 80", + "probability": "0.2842747796528566717443829668237337", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "137", - "liquidity": "1585.76", - "tradevolume": "9977.68", + "numforecasts": "400", + "liquidity": "2555.00", + "tradevolume": "9859.41", "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 30, 30-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, More than 80" }, { - "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", + "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9007428867327054129165036606952368", + "probability": "0.2107629166961670338642085270553354", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.09925711326729458708349633930476325", + "probability": "0.7892370833038329661357914729446646", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "853", - "liquidity": "9826.84", - "tradevolume": "96927.10", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5206285472686400507444749347907407", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4793714527313599492555250652092593", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "590", - "liquidity": "27288.56", - "tradevolume": "95335.81", + "numforecasts": "109", + "liquidity": "1131.33", + "tradevolume": "4430.10", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Joe Biden's approval rating be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-bidens-approval-rating-be-54-or-higher-on-april-14-2021", + "title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Joe Biden's approval rating will be 54% or higher on April 14, 2021. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's approval rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If for any reason the resolution source is unavailable on the resolution date, resolution will be delayed up to 48 hours. If still unavailable following that delay, this market will resolve to 50/50. If Joe Biden is not President on the resolution date, this market will resolve according to the most recent available approval rating. The resolution date for this market will be on April 15, 2021 at 12:00 PM ET according to data published for the day of April 14, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.3535197095680785170642305476130527", + "probability": "0.4980345094792067519172112635965405", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.6464802904319214829357694523869473", + "probability": "0.5019654905207932480827887364034595", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "70", - "liquidity": "6012.10", - "tradevolume": "9506.53", + "numforecasts": "52", + "liquidity": "56324.48", + "tradevolume": "6282.00", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Joe Biden be President of the USA on July 31, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-joe-biden-be-president-of-the-usa-on-july-31-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Joe Biden will be President of the United States on July 31, 2021, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes“ if, on the resolution date, Joe Biden is listed as being the current President of the United States according to official US government sources, like the link provided as the resolution source. If, for any reason, Joe Biden is not the sitting President of the United States on that date, this market will resolve to “No“. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). The resolution source for this market will be the official website of the United States President, https://www.whitehouse.gov/.\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9339458073173414421656340245752705", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.06605419268265855783436597542472948", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "74", - "liquidity": "11563.47", - "tradevolume": "8977.70", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Clubhouse officially announce they’ve been acquired before June 1st, 2021? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-clubhouse-officially-announce-theyve-been-acquired-before-june-1st-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Clubhouse will announce they've been acquired before June 1st, 2021, with the term acquired meaning the official announcement and public reporting of an acquisition, with a for-profit company purchasing majority ownership of Clubhouse and/or the respective entity. Note, this is not in reference to the final close date of the acquisition. This market will resolve immediately upon the resolution conditions being met, and thus, if, for whatever reason, the acquisition is not successfully completed, the market will have already resolved to “Yes”.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1665007233546323391526042792748865", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8334992766453676608473957207251135", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "107", - "liquidity": "2136.64", - "tradevolume": "8932.72", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9632262890311635630827874617597747", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.03677371096883643691721253824022533", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "528", - "liquidity": "4057.43", - "tradevolume": "80146.73", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "What will the 7-day average COVID-19 case count in the US be on April 9?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-the-7-day-average-covid-19-case-count-in-the-us-be-on-april-9", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on what the 7-day average COVID-19 case count will be in the US on April 9, 2021, 12:00 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the 7-day moving average of daily cases, as displayed on the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#trends_dailytrendscases). Note the CDC always presents this average as a whole number, which is the figure that will be used to resolve the market. The 7-day moving average will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 9, 2021. The bracket into which the 7-day moving average falls at that time will be the bracket this market resolves to. If the website is down at that time or for any reason data is not accessible on the website at the resolution date, the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC) will wait 24 hours (until 12:00 PM ET on April 10, 2021) and resolve as soon as data is available again. If data is still unavailable at that time, all brackets will resolve to 0.25 USDC. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "49,999 or fewer", - "probability": "0.002230462986002085580952958875012663", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "50,000-62,499", - "probability": "0.01943734896497328170661380961001092", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "62,500-74,999", - "probability": "0.9761999336157880496144669916833917", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "75,000 or more", - "probability": "0.002132254433236583097966239831584897", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "348", - "liquidity": "2000.00", - "tradevolume": "7745.24", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "49,999 or fewer, 50,000-62,499, 62,500-74,999, 75,000 or more" - }, - { - "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.9950022276106855881319902372862853", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.004997772389314411868009762713714693", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "44", - "liquidity": "1184.32", - "tradevolume": "7441.96", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.732235446884398698530675700296491", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.267764553115601301469324299703509", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "1338", - "liquidity": "206602.57", - "tradevolume": "701564.43", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03413667417694183066424578230798366", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9658633258230581693357542176920163", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "133", - "liquidity": "2628.43", - "tradevolume": "6625.39", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, { "title": "Will the Tokyo Summer Olympics be cancelled or postponed by May 1, 2021?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-tokyo-summer-olympics-be-cancelled-or-postponed", @@ -66437,47 +66402,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.06698999379989905965353372642409035", + "probability": "0.05616741550557475871386013852463022", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9330100062001009403464662735759097", + "probability": "0.9438325844944252412861398614753698", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "476", - "liquidity": "4039.72", - "tradevolume": "65732.40", + "numforecasts": "502", + "liquidity": "4416.73", + "tradevolume": "70584.14", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", + "title": "Will Matt Gaetz continue to hold Congressional office through June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-matt-gaetz-continue-to-hold-congressional-office-through-june-1-2021", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "description": "This is a market on whether Matt Gaetz will hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st Congressional District from the date of the creation of this market through June 1, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" in the event that Matt Gaetz continues to hold the office of U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district on the resolution date, and “No” otherwise. In the event that Matt Gaetz resigns, is removed from office, or is no longer in office for any reason prior to the resolution date, this market will resolve to \"No\" immediately. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.house.gov/representatives. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.03921719512341878664778748620392095", + "probability": "0.7393062149102331578743390689487257", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.960782804876581213352212513796079", + "probability": "0.2606937850897668421256609310512743", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.316Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "110", - "liquidity": "1368.68", - "tradevolume": "6123.61", - "stars": 3 + "numforecasts": "603", + "liquidity": "2350.79", + "tradevolume": "43045.85", + "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, @@ -66489,20 +66454,20 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.01594316631423604659920151808627175", + "probability": "0.01494765963142556923261016663236108", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9840568336857639534007984819137282", + "probability": "0.9850523403685744307673898333676389", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "768", + "numforecasts": "771", "liquidity": "1597.05", - "tradevolume": "57034.77", + "tradevolume": "57062.75", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -66515,46 +66480,176 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.04444621728750495279667043356264725", + "probability": "0.06151545589569432768137675361184088", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9555537827124950472033295664373527", + "probability": "0.9384845441043056723186232463881591", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.313Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "750", - "liquidity": "1831.75", - "tradevolume": "55256.23", + "numforecasts": "842", + "liquidity": "2835.45", + "tradevolume": "64339.67", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will the average Ethereum gas price be below 170 Gwei on April 19?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-average-ethereum-gas-price-be-below-170-gwei-on-april-19", + "title": "What rating will theneedledrop give Drake’s \"Certified Lover Boy\"?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-rating-will-theneedledrop-give-drake-s-certified-lover-boy", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether the average Ethereum gas price will be below 170 Gwei on April 19, 2021. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the daily average Ethereum gas price is listed as being below 170 Gwei for that date, on Etherscan. If the daily average Ethereum gas price is 170 Gwei or higher for that date, this market will resolve to \"No\". The resolution source for this market is https://etherscan.io/chart/gasprice. This market will resolve when data is available for the date of April 19, 2021. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). ", + "description": "This is a scalar market on what Anthony Fantano, aka theneedledrop, will rate Drake’s upcoming album, set to be titled “Certified Lover Boy”, in his Youtube review. The lower bound is 0 and the upper bound is 10. Ratings like “strong”, “light” and other similar words will be interpreted in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). For example, in the case of “a strong 6 to light 7”, the market would resolve to 7, while “a light to decent 6” would resolve to 6.25. A “Not Good” will resolve as 0. Market starts December 7th, 2020, and this market will be based on Drake's next album release after this date, even if it is not titled \"Certified Lover Boy\". In the unlikely event that theneedledrop does not rate Drake's upcoming album, this market will resolve to 5.\n\nAs this is a Scalar market, you can use the calculator to the right (underneath the Buy modal) to calculate how each Long or Short Token price corresponds with theneedledrop rating. Long and Short shares will settle proportionally to the outcome value. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Long", + "probability": "0.5773517925115090010861748184040216", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Short", + "probability": "0.4226482074884909989138251815959784", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "82", + "liquidity": "1127.69", + "tradevolume": "3884.83", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Long, Short" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump file to run for president before June 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-june-1-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether Donald Trump will file to run for president prior to June 1, 2021. The linked PredictIt question is the basis for the creation of this market and will be referenced as the leading resolution source: https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6994/Will-Donald-Trump-file-to-run-for-president-before-the-end-of-2021. If the PredictIt question resolves to \"Yes\" prior to June 1, 2021, this market will resolve to “Yes”, and “No” otherwise.", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.6755572443640393018752364739146016", + "probability": "0.02683790127608504062017590490816731", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.3244427556359606981247635260853984", + "probability": "0.9731620987239149593798240950918327", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "14", - "liquidity": "804.76", - "tradevolume": "533.17", + "numforecasts": "136", + "liquidity": "2628.43", + "tradevolume": "6685.75", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will North Dakota have the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-north-dakota-have-the-most-covid-19-cases-per-100k-residents-on-may-15-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on the state with the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on the resolution date, May 15, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Yes” if North Dakota has the most COVID-19 cases per 100k residents on May 15, 2021, and “No” otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2020/health/coronavirus-us-maps-and-cases/. There will be no resolution delay for any anticipated data revisions. If, for any reason, data is not published prior to the resolution date, that data will not be considered for the resolution of this market. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.554731375502899705109701718740474", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.445268624497100294890298281259526", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "608", + "liquidity": "31441.36", + "tradevolume": "98431.39", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will US GDP growth be more than 4.9% in Q1 2021? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-us-gdp-growth-be-more-than-49-in-q1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether U.S. GDP growth will be higher than 4.9% when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) releases its “advance estimate” of US GDP growth for Q1 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis’s “advance estimate” of annualized real US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter of 2021, as reported in its press release announcing this figure currently scheduled for release on April 29, 8:30 AM ET (bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the BEA’s Q1 2021 advance estimate of GDP growth is greater than 4.9%. This market will resolve to “No” if the BEA’s advance estimate of GDP growth is 4.9% or lower. This market will resolve when the BEA advance estimate for Q1 2021 GDP Growth becomes available. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.6506773718856485140422842194951405", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.3493226281143514859577157805048595", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "32", + "liquidity": "752.64", + "tradevolume": "826.23", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will weekly jobless claims exceed 650K for the week ending on April 3?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-weekly-jobless-claims-exceed-650k-for-the-week-ending-on-april-3", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether the number of Americans that file weekly jobless claims will exceed 650,000 for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were more than 650,000 seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” if the United States Department of Labor reports that there were 650,000 or less seasonally adjusted initial claims for unemployment insurance for the week ending on April 3, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be the United States Department of Labor’s Weekly Uninsurance Claims report for the week ending on Saturday, April 3, 2021, expected to be released on Thursday, April 8. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. .\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9998119243251549812118826209573096", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.0001880756748450187881173790426904279", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "276", + "liquidity": "2170.82", + "tradevolume": "53691.86", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 225M COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the US by Biden's 100th day in office? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-225-m-covid-19-vaccine-doses-have-been-administered-in-the-us-by-biden-s-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 225 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 225 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 225 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9773423679886364124343603077897927", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.0226576320113635875656396922102073", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.958Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "542", + "liquidity": "3702.34", + "tradevolume": "80487.94", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -66567,101 +66662,24 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.08446095208233418986080353647514015", + "probability": "0.03511693285629864141929295637392675", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.9155390479176658101391964635248599", + "probability": "0.9648830671437013585807070436260732", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "516", - "liquidity": "7988.71", - "tradevolume": "53145.52", + "numforecasts": "557", + "liquidity": "4281.32", + "tradevolume": "57153.94", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, - { - "title": "Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Ben Askren?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-jake-paul-win-his-boxing-match-against-ben-askren", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on whether Jake Paul will win his boxing match against Ben Askren, set to take place on April 17th, 2021. If Jake Paul is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or judgement, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If Ben Askren is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled.\n", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.5050241461157637610495418110858291", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "No", - "probability": "0.4949758538842362389504581889141709", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.312Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "42", - "liquidity": "54242.49", - "tradevolume": "4559.50", - "stars": 4 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" - }, - { - "title": "How many more tweets will be on the @ElonMusk account on April 14, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/how-many-more-tweets-will-be-on-the-elonmusk-account-on-april-14-2021", - "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "At 3:00 PM ET on the resolution date, the number of total tweets posted by the Twitter account @ElonMusk, shall exceed 13,963 (the \"Baseline\") by the number or range identified in the contract, as indicated by the number under the label \"TWEETS\" on the account detail viewable on the desktop version of https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/. This account detail can be viewed by using a Twitter account to log into the website https://tweetdeck.twitter.com/, searching for @ElonMusk, then clicking the verified account labeled \"@ElonMusk\" from the search results. Should the total tweets reported by that source at that time appear not to include one or more tweets posted by @ElonMusk just before 3:00 pm, and still available on that account's timeline at 3:00 pm, Polymarket may use additional sources in determining whether any such tweet(s) should be included in the market's resolution. The number by which the total tweets at expiration exceeds the Baseline may not equal the number of tweets actually posted over that time period, in light of numerous factors, including but not limited to the fact that the account's total tweets upon launch of the market may differ from the Baseline, tweets may be deleted prior to expiration of this market, and specialized tweets such as quotes, retweets, replies, promoted tweets, may or may not be included in that total.\n\nNeither Elon Musk, nor any authorized user of the account in question, need be the author of any such tweets, nor must any authorized user maintain control of the account. Should the settlement source be unavailable at that date and time, for any reason other than deletion, deactivation, or a change in the privacy settings of the account, Polymarket may postpone settlement of this market until the source becomes available. In such a case, the account's total tweets will be measured once Polymarket becomes aware that the source has again become available. If Polymarket deems the source to be permanently unavailable, the lowest bracket will resolve to \"Yes\". Should an updated count of total tweets not be available from twitter.com at the date and time of expiration, due to apparent deletion, deactivation, or a change in privacy settings by a user of the account or by Twitter, all contracts in this market will resolve as No. The blocking of one or more Twitter accounts by @ElonMusk will not be considered to render the settlement source unavailable.\n\nShould the navigation, layout, URL, or labeling of the elements of the settlement source be altered by Twitter or Tweetdeck prior to expiration (other than via deletion or deactivation of the account), this market will still be resolved according to the aforementioned formula, so long as Polymarket can reasonably determine the relevant number of total tweets from twitter.com. The merging, migration, or other combination of one or more Twitter accounts will not in and of itself cause the settlement source to be considered unavailable, so long as an updated count of total tweets can be determined according to the aforementioned formula, even if such combination causes an increase or decrease in that count that does not represent the number of tweets posted to the account during the time period in question.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", - "options": [ - { - "name": "Less than 30", - "probability": "0.02712575215606869253252600966220513", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "30-40", - "probability": "0.1115263745913060475253404147763908", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "41-50", - "probability": "0.2219636014313589647902402720571277", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "51-60", - "probability": "0.2547160184188490839953676900262511", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "61-70", - "probability": "0.1907413972112541594210074122414898", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "71-80", - "probability": "0.1255456580166040091498031486191968", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "More than 80", - "probability": "0.06838119817455904258571505261733859", - "type": "PROBABILITY" - } - ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z", - "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "152", - "liquidity": "2555.00", - "tradevolume": "4495.18", - "stars": 3 - }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Less than 30, 30-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, 71-80, More than 80" - }, { "title": "Will any Knicks game have greater than 20% attendance before the NBA season ends?", "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-knicks-game-have-greater-than-20-attendance-before-the-nba-season-ends", @@ -66670,46 +66688,72 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.7373184535851954646769817275173767", + "probability": "0.6895778652585415218229753334790345", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.2626815464148045353230182724826233", + "probability": "0.3104221347414584781770246665209655", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.314Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "68", - "liquidity": "1000.00", - "tradevolume": "4268.68", + "numforecasts": "72", + "liquidity": "1045.47", + "tradevolume": "4558.08", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" }, { - "title": "Will Apple, Amazon, or Twitter announce a Bitcoin purchase before July 1, 2021?", - "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-apple-amazon-or-twitter-announce-a-bitcoin-purchase-before-july-1-2021", + "title": "Will Floyd Mayweather beat Logan Paul in their boxing exhibition match?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-floyd-mayweather-beat-logan-paul-in-their-boxing-exhibition-match", "platform": "PolyMarket", - "description": "This is a market on if Apple ($AAPL), Amazon ($AMZN), or Twitter ($TWTR) will announce either their intention to purchase Bitcoin ($BTC) off their balance sheet, the completion of such a purchase, or, in any other way, ownership of BTC on their balance sheet. This announcement may come from any official channel. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Apple, Amazon, or Twitter satisfies any of the aforementioned resolution conditions before the resolution date, July 1, 2021, 12:00 AM ET. If for any reason the market conditions are not met by the resolution date, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome of this market, it will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", + "description": "This is a market on whether Floyd Mayweather will win his boxing exhibition match against Logan Paul set to take place on February 20th, 2021. If Floyd Mayweather is declared the winner of this bout, either by knockout or by judgement, this market will resolve “Yes.” If Logan Paul is declared the winner, or this fight is declared a draw, this market will resolve to “No”. If this match is, for any reason, postponed to a date earlier than May 1st, 2021, the same market resolution conditions will apply for whenever the fight is rescheduled. In the event the boxing match does not take place before then, the market will resolve to .90 for \"Yes\" and .10 for \"No\", which is in line with existing market odds at time of deployment. More info can be found about this fight on the Fanmio website here: https://fanmio.com/products/floyd-mayweather-vs-logan-paul-special-exhibition-fight. In the event of ambiguity in regards to the outcome, this market will be resolved in good faith by the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": "0.1958944749463810152808445623177045", + "probability": "0.9007542587259509964707452958987178", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": "0.8041055250536189847191554376822955", + "probability": "0.09924574127404900352925470410128216", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.311Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "101", - "liquidity": "1131.33", - "tradevolume": "4252.10", + "numforecasts": "856", + "liquidity": "9826.84", + "tradevolume": "96939.10", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will more than 1.75 million people travel through a TSA checkpoint on any day on or before May 1?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-more-than-175-million-people-travel-through-a-tsa-checkpoint-on-any-day-on-or-before-may-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether more than 1.75 million people will travel through a TSA checkpoint on any single day after April 5, 2021 and on or before May 1, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/coronavirus/passenger-throughput. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 1.75 million for any day after April 7, 2021 and on or before May 1, 2021. This market will resolve to “No” otherwise. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the date of May 1, 2021 or on any date before that if the target is reached. Any revisions published prior to the release of data for May 1, 2021 will be considered. ", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.4845543951205036563114189776704425", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.5154456048794963436885810223295575", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "57", + "liquidity": "1755.85", + "tradevolume": "4594.22", "stars": 4 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" @@ -66722,24 +66766,143 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Bezos", - "probability": "0.9524984652600312046436200271105158", + "probability": "0.9288499311271435124503319980332007", "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Musk", - "probability": "0.04750153473996879535637997288948422", + "probability": "0.07115006887285648754966800196679927", "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:00:47.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", "qualityindicators": { - "numforecasts": "330", + "numforecasts": "346", "liquidity": "1800.31", - "tradevolume": "36782.54", + "tradevolume": "37358.73", "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Bezos, Musk" }, + { + "title": "What will monthly NFT trading volume be on April 13, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/what-will-monthly-nft-trading-volume-be-on-april-13-2021-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on what the monthly trading volume will be for non-fungible-tokens (NFTs) on April 13, 2021. The resolution source for this market will be Coinranking’s aggregation of 30-day NFT trading volume, as displayed in USD by the resolution source, https://coinranking.com/nfts. The total trading volume (in the last 30 days) as listed by Coinranking will be checked at 12:00 PM ET on April 13, 2021. Whichever bracket the total trading volume falls into at that time will be the bracket that this market resolves to. Data will be rounded down to the nearest million dollars for the resolution of this market (e.g. 50.3, 50.5, 50.7 million dollars are all rounded down to 50 million dollars). In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC).\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "$80M or Less", + "probability": "0.003862266095683786449136426255006652", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$81-105M", + "probability": "0.9063983636152715530355360121062686", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$106-120M", + "probability": "0.05112020823718139310674976971325195", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$121-135M", + "probability": "0.01305847246954950163539772123193782", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "$136M or More", + "probability": "0.02556068958231376577318007069353496", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "749", + "liquidity": "4478.57", + "tradevolume": "39645.66", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "$80M or Less, $81-105M, $106-120M, $121-135M, $136M or More" + }, + { + "title": "Will the US have 200M total COVID-19 vaccines administered by Biden’s 100th day in office?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-have-200m-total-covid-19-vaccines-administered-by-bidens-100th-day-in-office", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 200 million COVID-19 vaccine doses will be administered in the United States by April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET (Biden’s 100th day in office). This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 200 million or more total COVID-19 vaccine doses are administered by the resolution date. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 200 million COVID-19 vaccines doses are administered by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the number of total COVID-19 vaccine doses administered, as indicated by the CDC’s Covid Data tracker (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations). This market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, April 29, 2021, 12:00 PM ET, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date. \n\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.9962016850052945035397107458987475", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.003798314994705496460289254101252519", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "47", + "liquidity": "1184.32", + "tradevolume": "7472.16", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will Donald Trump be federally charged by June 1st? ", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-donald-trump-be-federally-charged-by-june-1st-1", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether President Donald J. Trump shall be indicted or otherwise formally charged with a federal crime, as publicly confirmed before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET by an authorized representative of the charging agency(ies) or judicial venue(s). If he is charged with a federal crime on or before June 1st, 2021 12:00 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If he is charged with any crime that is not a federal crime or is not charged with any crimes, this market will resolve “No”. In the event of ambiguity in terms of the market outcome, the market will be resolved in good faith at the sole discretion of the Markets Integrity Committee (MIC). \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.03336085599793534165975031937660576", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.9666391440020646583402496806233942", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "115", + "liquidity": "1368.68", + "tradevolume": "6176.49", + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Will 150 million people have received a dose of an approved COVID-19 vaccine in the US by May 1, 2021?", + "url": "https://polymarket.com/market/will-150-million-people-have-received-a-dose-of-an-approved-covid-19-vaccine-in-the-us-by-may-1-2021", + "platform": "PolyMarket", + "description": "This is a market on whether 150 million people in The United States of America will have initiated vaccination, according to the CDC COVID tracker, by the resolution date, May 1, 2021, 12 PM ET. This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if 150 million people or more are listed as having received their initial dose of vaccination by the resolution source. This only concerns the first dose of vaccination. For vaccines requiring two doses for inoculation, this market considers only the first dose to be considered having initiated vaccination. This market will resolve to \"No\" if, for any reason, fewer than 150 million people have initiated vaccination by the resolution date. The resolution source for this market will be the official data published by the CDC available at https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations\n\nThis market will resolve according to the data as available immediately at the time of resolution, and resolution will not be delayed for the purpose of waiting for updated data from a specific date.\n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": "0.7359055081743887022516480362423081", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": "0.2640944918256112977483519637576919", + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T15:01:38.959Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "numforecasts": "1419", + "liquidity": "183524.25", + "tradevolume": "771767.52", + "stars": 4 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?", "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election", @@ -66748,26 +66911,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5188679245283019, + "probability": 0.5192307692307693, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4339622641509434, + "probability": 0.4326923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Libertarian", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.028846153846153844, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:45.198Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:07.776Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66781,16 +66944,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.54, + "probability": 0.5445544554455446, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.46, + "probability": 0.45544554455445546, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:49.341Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:13.884Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66813,7 +66976,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:55.362Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:17.971Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66836,7 +66999,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:10:59.578Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:23.136Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66859,7 +67022,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:03.041Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:27.876Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66873,16 +67036,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.81, + "probability": 0.8200000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:06.637Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:33.852Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66896,16 +67059,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.43, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5900000000000001, + "probability": 0.5700000000000001, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:11.426Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:39.133Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66928,7 +67091,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:16.136Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:42.608Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66942,16 +67105,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8910891089108911, + "probability": 0.9, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.10891089108910891, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:20.011Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:47.528Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66965,16 +67128,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.8811881188118812, + "probability": 0.8725490196078431, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.1188118811881188, + "probability": 0.12745098039215685, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:24.200Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:52.076Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -66988,90 +67151,90 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrew Yang", - "probability": 0.5169491525423728, + "probability": 0.5083333333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Adams", - "probability": 0.20338983050847453, + "probability": 0.18333333333333332, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Stringer", - "probability": 0.06779661016949151, + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Raymond McGuire", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Maya Wiley", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "probability": 0.04999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Donovan", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Curtis Sliwa", - "probability": 0.016949152542372878, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Carlos Menchaca", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Loree Sutton", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dianne Morales", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathryn Garcia", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Curtis Sliwa", + "probability": 0.016666666666666663, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Carlos Menchaca", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Loree Sutton", + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Rose", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Zach Iscol", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Catsimatidis", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paperboy Prince", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Fernando Mateo", - "probability": 0.008474576271186439, + "probability": 0.008333333333333331, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:29.576Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:47:57.920Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Andrew Yang, Eric Adams, Scott Stringer, Raymond McGuire, Maya Wiley, Shaun Donovan, Dianne Morales, Kathryn Garcia, Curtis Sliwa, Carlos Menchaca, Loree Sutton, Max Rose, Zach Iscol, John Catsimatidis, Paperboy Prince, Fernando Mateo" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Yang run in the 2021 NYC Democratic Mayoral primary?", @@ -67090,7 +67253,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:34.152Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:01.588Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67113,7 +67276,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:39.986Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:04.692Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67127,16 +67290,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:44.853Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:08.700Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67150,16 +67313,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:50.102Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:13.672Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67182,7 +67345,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:11:56.100Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:17.002Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67205,7 +67368,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:02.248Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:20.928Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67228,7 +67391,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:08.196Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:24.912Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67251,7 +67414,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:12.819Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:30.501Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67265,16 +67428,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.94, + "probability": 0.95, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:18.748Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:34.985Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67297,7 +67460,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:23.626Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:40.291Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67311,31 +67474,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Terry McAuliffe", - "probability": 0.8737864077669902, + "probability": 0.875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer Carroll Foy", - "probability": 0.07766990291262135, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jennifer McClellan", - "probability": 0.029126213592233007, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Fairfax", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lee Carter", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:28.626Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:43.969Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67349,16 +67512,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.82, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.20999999999999996, + "probability": 0.18000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:32.549Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:49.745Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67381,7 +67544,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:38.860Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:53.664Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67400,7 +67563,7 @@ }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.288135593220339, + "probability": 0.29661016949152536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -67409,12 +67572,12 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.050847457627118633, + "name": "Robert Habeck", + "probability": 0.0423728813559322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Robert Habeck", + "name": "Angela Merkel", "probability": 0.0423728813559322, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -67474,11 +67637,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:43.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:48:58.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Angela Merkel, Robert Habeck, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Markus Söder, Armin Laschet, Annalena Baerbock, Robert Habeck, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz, Christian Lindner, Katja Kipping, Alice Weidel, Alexander Gauland, Bernd Riexinger, Friedrich Merz, Norbert Röttgen, A. Kramp-Karrenbauer, Jens Spahn, Ralph Brinkhaus" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 Virginia Republican gubernatorial nomination?", @@ -67493,17 +67656,17 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Snyder", - "probability": 0.21818181818181814, + "probability": 0.23636363636363636, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Glenn Youngkin", - "probability": 0.1909090909090909, + "probability": 0.18181818181818182, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amanda Chase", - "probability": 0.09090909090909091, + "probability": 0.0818181818181818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -67522,7 +67685,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:48.038Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:02.479Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67536,90 +67699,90 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.20720720720720714, + "probability": 0.2053571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.20720720720720714, + "probability": 0.19642857142857137, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.09009009009009007, + "probability": 0.09821428571428568, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kristi Noem", - "probability": 0.08108108108108106, + "probability": 0.08035714285714284, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.06306306306306306, + "probability": 0.07142857142857141, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.054054054054054036, + "probability": 0.053571428571428555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.04464285714285713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.045045045045045036, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.03603603603603603, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03603603603603603, + "probability": 0.035714285714285705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.027027027027027018, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.027027027027027018, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.027027027027027018, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mitt Romney", - "probability": 0.018018018018018014, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.018018018018018014, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Larry Hogan", - "probability": 0.018018018018018014, + "probability": 0.026785714285714277, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Mitt Romney", + "probability": 0.017857142857142853, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rick Scott", + "probability": 0.017857142857142853, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:52.663Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:08.231Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott, Larry Hogan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, Mike Pompeo, Tom Cotton, Marco Rubio, Josh Hawley, Tucker Carlson, Donald Trump Jr., Tim Scott, Larry Hogan, Mitt Romney, Rick Scott" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?", @@ -67639,7 +67802,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -67663,7 +67826,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:12:57.459Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:14.114Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67677,45 +67840,45 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Michelle Wu", - "probability": 0.4444444444444445, + "probability": 0.45283018867924535, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Janey", - "probability": 0.38888888888888895, + "probability": 0.3867924528301887, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Campbell", - "probability": 0.07407407407407408, + "probability": 0.07547169811320756, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "A. Essaibi-George", - "probability": 0.03703703703703704, + "probability": 0.03773584905660378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barros", - "probability": 0.02777777777777778, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jon Santiago", - "probability": 0.01851851851851852, + "probability": 0.028301886792452834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marty Walsh", - "probability": 0.00925925925925926, + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jon Santiago", + "probability": 0.009433962264150945, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:02.456Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:18.517Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, John Barros, Jon Santiago, Marty Walsh" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Michelle Wu, Kim Janey, Andrea Campbell, A. Essaibi-George, John Barros, Marty Walsh, Jon Santiago" }, { "title": "Will the Senate censure Ted Cruz before May 1?", @@ -67734,7 +67897,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:07.684Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:22.624Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67757,7 +67920,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:13.640Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:26.692Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67771,16 +67934,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:18.254Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:31.140Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67803,7 +67966,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:23.024Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:35.036Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67826,7 +67989,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:26.573Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:38.544Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67849,7 +68012,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:32.834Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:42.724Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67863,16 +68026,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8118811881188118, + "probability": 0.8137254901960784, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.18811881188118812, + "probability": 0.18627450980392157, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:37.160Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:47.981Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -67886,85 +68049,85 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jane Timken", - "probability": 0.32075471698113206, + "probability": 0.3125, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "J. D. Vance", - "probability": 0.2830188679245283, + "probability": 0.2767857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Mandel", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.1875, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steve Stivers", - "probability": 0.0660377358490566, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jim Jordan", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.08035714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Turner", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.026785714285714288, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Gibbons", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.026785714285714288, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jim Jordan", + "probability": 0.01785714285714286, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rob Portman", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Husted", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mary Taylor", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Renacci", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Frank LaRose", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brad Wenstrup", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Warren Davidson", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bill Johnson", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.00892857142857143, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:43.438Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:53.066Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Jim Jordan, Mike Turner, Mike Gibbons, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jane Timken, J. D. Vance, Josh Mandel, Steve Stivers, Mike Turner, Mike Gibbons, Jim Jordan, Rob Portman, Jon Husted, Mary Taylor, Jim Renacci, Frank LaRose, Brad Wenstrup, Warren Davidson, Bill Johnson" }, { "title": "Will Puerto Rico become a U.S. state in 2021?", @@ -67974,16 +68137,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.96, + "probability": 0.97, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:46.986Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:49:56.695Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68006,7 +68169,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:52.683Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:00.619Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68029,7 +68192,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:13:56.181Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:04.439Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68043,81 +68206,81 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Troy Carter", - "probability": 0.584070796460177, + "probability": 0.5932203389830508, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Karen Peterson", - "probability": 0.30088495575221236, + "probability": 0.2966101694915254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chelsea Ardoin", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Belden Batiste", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Claston Bernard", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gary Chambers", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Harold John", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Christopher Johnson", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brandon Jolicoeur", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lloyd Kelly", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Greg Lirette", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mindy McConnell", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Desiree Ontiveros", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenette Porter", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sheldon Vincent Sr.", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.00847457627118644, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:00.918Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:09.908Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68180,7 +68343,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:05.527Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:15.488Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68194,16 +68357,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.5346534653465347, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.4653465346534653, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:11.565Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:20.432Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68217,60 +68380,60 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Hassan Rouhani", - "probability": 0.5267857142857142, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Benjamin Netanyahu", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Scott Morrison", - "probability": 0.09821428571428571, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.05357142857142856, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Moon Jae-in", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kim Jong-un", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Moon Jae-in", + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Narendra Modi", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joko Widodo", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:16.922Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:24.278Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Moon Jae-in, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Hassan Rouhani, Benjamin Netanyahu, Scott Morrison, Suga Yoshihide, Kim Jong-un, Xi Jinping, Moon Jae-in, Narendra Modi, Joko Widodo, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan" }, { "title": "Will Alexander Lukashenko be President of Belarus through the end of the 2021?", @@ -68280,16 +68443,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.84, + "probability": 0.85, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.16000000000000003, + "probability": 0.15000000000000002, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:21.512Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:29.802Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68303,16 +68466,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6237623762376238, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.37623762376237624, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:24.939Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:33.768Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68326,51 +68489,51 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Alvin Bragg", - "probability": 0.4077669902912621, + "probability": 0.40566037735849053, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tali Weinstein", - "probability": 0.3398058252427184, + "probability": 0.33962264150943394, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tahanie Aboushi", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "probability": 0.11320754716981131, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eliza Orlins", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Quart", - "probability": 0.038834951456310676, + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lucy Lang", - "probability": 0.019417475728155338, + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyrus Vance", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Diana Florence", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Crotty", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:30.496Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:37.032Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68384,56 +68547,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Abdelmadjid Tebboune", - "probability": 0.32380952380952377, + "probability": 0.33009708737864074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Muhammadu Buhari", - "probability": 0.23809523809523803, + "probability": 0.2427184466019417, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Uhuru Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.14285714285714282, + "probability": 0.12621359223300968, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abiy Ahmed", - "probability": 0.10476190476190474, + "probability": 0.10679611650485435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Félix Tshisekedi", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, + "probability": 0.04854368932038834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmerson Mnangagwa", - "probability": 0.04761904761904761, + "probability": 0.04854368932038834, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paul Kagame", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nana Akufo-Addo", - "probability": 0.028571428571428564, + "probability": 0.029126213592233, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.019047619047619042, + "probability": 0.019417475728155335, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:36.661Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:41.204Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68447,16 +68610,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.69, + "probability": 0.7, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31000000000000005, + "probability": 0.30000000000000004, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:40.355Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:45.260Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68470,66 +68633,66 @@ "options": [ { "name": "12 or fewer", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "13", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "15", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "17", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "19", - "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20", - "probability": 0.5769230769230769, + "probability": 0.5523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "21", - "probability": 0.2788461538461538, + "probability": 0.30476190476190473, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "22", - "probability": 0.028846153846153844, + "probability": 0.03809523809523809, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "23 or more", - "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "probability": 0.009523809523809523, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:44.554Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:49.950Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68543,86 +68706,86 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Jon Sallet", - "probability": 0.6371681415929202, + "probability": 0.6428571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jonathan Kanter", - "probability": 0.23893805309734512, + "probability": 0.23214285714285712, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Renata Hesse", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Deborah Feinstein", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Susan Davies", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rebecca Slaughter", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonia Pfaffenroth", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dave Gelfand", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Steven Sunshine", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Terrell McSweeny", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jon Leibowitz", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Juan Arteaga", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gigi Sohn", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edward Smith", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Einer Elhauge", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Douglas Melamed", - "probability": 0.008849557522123894, + "probability": 0.008928571428571428, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:50.565Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:50:54.966Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68636,21 +68799,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Andrés Arauz", - "probability": 0.7378640776699029, + "probability": 0.7425742574257426, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Guillermo Lasso", - "probability": 0.2524271844660194, + "probability": 0.24752475247524752, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yaku Pérez", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:54.927Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:00.399Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68664,60 +68827,60 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Suga Yoshihide", - "probability": 0.41, + "probability": 0.4059405940594058, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.1287128712871287, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jair Bolsonaro", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11881188118811878, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Justin Trudeau", - "probability": 0.09, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.04, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.08910891089108909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Cyril Ramaphosa", + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Emmanuel Macron", + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Boris Johnson", + "probability": 0.04950495049504949, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Recep Tayyip Erdoğan", + "probability": 0.0396039603960396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xi Jinping", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.0198019801980198, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:14:59.257Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:06.352Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Suga Yoshihide, Joe Biden, Jair Bolsonaro, Justin Trudeau, Vladimir Putin, Cyril Ramaphosa, Emmanuel Macron, Boris Johnson, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Xi Jinping" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2022 Ohio Democratic Senate nomination?", @@ -68727,7 +68890,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Tim Ryan", - "probability": 0.79, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -68737,7 +68900,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nan Whaley", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -68751,7 +68914,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:04.712Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:12.349Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68765,36 +68928,36 @@ "options": [ { "name": "John Fetterman", - "probability": 0.6796116504854368, + "probability": 0.6826923076923076, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conor Lamb", - "probability": 0.1359223300970874, + "probability": 0.13461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Malcolm Kenyatta", - "probability": 0.11650485436893203, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Madeleine Dean", - "probability": 0.04854368932038835, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joe Sestak", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jim Kenney", - "probability": 0.009708737864077669, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:08.249Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:17.281Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68808,56 +68971,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "62 or fewer", - "probability": 0.10784313725490198, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 or 64", - "probability": 0.12745098039215688, + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65 or 66", - "probability": 0.19607843137254907, + "probability": 0.2169811320754717, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "67 or 68", - "probability": 0.24509803921568632, + "probability": 0.2641509433962264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 or 70", - "probability": 0.19607843137254907, + "probability": 0.16037735849056603, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 or 72", - "probability": 0.08823529411764708, + "probability": 0.08490566037735849, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or 74", - "probability": 0.009803921568627453, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 or 76", - "probability": 0.009803921568627453, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "77 or 78", - "probability": 0.009803921568627453, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "79 or more", - "probability": 0.009803921568627453, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:13.387Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:21.728Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68880,13 +69043,13 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Everett Stern", + "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06, + "name": "Everett Stern", + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -68895,11 +69058,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:17.529Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:26.573Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Guy Reschenthaler, Ryan Costello, Everett Stern, Donald Trump Jr., Charlie Dent" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Guy Reschenthaler, Ryan Costello, Donald Trump Jr., Everett Stern, Charlie Dent" }, { "title": "Which party will win the 2022 U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire?", @@ -68918,7 +69081,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:23.610Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:32.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68932,16 +69095,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.6633663366336634, + "probability": 0.6732673267326733, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.33663366336633666, + "probability": 0.32673267326732675, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:27.929Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:37.409Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68964,7 +69127,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:32.575Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:42.002Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -68978,75 +69141,75 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shalanda Young", - "probability": 0.4299999999999999, + "probability": 0.44, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nani Coloretti", - "probability": 0.20999999999999994, + "probability": 0.2, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Martha Coven", - "probability": 0.08999999999999998, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gene Sperling", - "probability": 0.059999999999999984, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Jared Bernstein", - "probability": 0.04999999999999999, + "probability": 0.07, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Chris Lu", - "probability": 0.039999999999999994, + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Jared Bernstein", + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Heather Boushey", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Thea Lee", - "probability": 0.029999999999999992, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sonal Shah", - "probability": 0.019999999999999997, + "probability": 0.02, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thea Lee", + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann O'Leary", - "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Neera Tanden", - "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sarah Bianchi", - "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Jones", - "probability": 0.009999999999999998, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:36.057Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:47.998Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Jared Bernstein, Chris Lu, Heather Boushey, Thea Lee, Sonal Shah, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Sarah Bianchi, John Jones" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Shalanda Young, Nani Coloretti, Martha Coven, Gene Sperling, Chris Lu, Jared Bernstein, Heather Boushey, Sonal Shah, Thea Lee, Ann O'Leary, Neera Tanden, Sarah Bianchi, John Jones" }, { "title": "Will Joe Biden resign during his first term?", @@ -69056,16 +69219,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.23, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.76, + "probability": 0.77, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:40.437Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:51.229Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69079,7 +69242,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Rob Bonta", - "probability": 0.74, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69123,7 +69286,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:46.472Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:51:56.434Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69146,7 +69309,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:49.936Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:02.185Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69160,16 +69323,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.63, + "probability": 0.65, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.37, + "probability": 0.35, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:15:56.133Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:07.008Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69183,56 +69346,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Angela Merkel", - "probability": 0.5267857142857142, + "probability": 0.5420560747663551, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrej Babiš", - "probability": 0.1607142857142857, + "probability": 0.16822429906542055, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Rutte", - "probability": 0.15178571428571427, + "probability": 0.14953271028037382, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mario Draghi", - "probability": 0.0625, + "probability": 0.04672897196261682, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexander Lukashenko", - "probability": 0.044642857142857144, + "probability": 0.037383177570093455, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": 0.017857142857142856, + "probability": 0.018691588785046728, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vladimir Putin", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Sánchez", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Viktor Orbán", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Boris Johnson", - "probability": 0.008928571428571428, + "probability": 0.009345794392523364, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:00.095Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:13.015Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69246,75 +69409,75 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yonhy Lescano", - "probability": 0.38260869565217387, + "probability": 0.3620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Hernando de Soto", - "probability": 0.27826086956521734, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", - "probability": 0.1043478260869565, + "probability": 0.24137931034482762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Keiko Fujimori", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, + "probability": 0.10344827586206896, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Verónika Mendoza", - "probability": 0.0608695652173913, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "George Forsyth", - "probability": 0.043478260869565216, + "name": "Rafael López Aliaga", + "probability": 0.08620689655172414, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pedro Castillo", - "probability": 0.017391304347826084, + "probability": 0.06896551724137932, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Verónika Mendoza", + "probability": 0.05172413793103448, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "George Forsyth", + "probability": 0.03448275862068966, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Urresti", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "César Acuña", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alberto Beingolea", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Julio Guzmán", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ollanta Humala", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Daniel Salaverry", - "probability": 0.008695652173913042, + "probability": 0.008620689655172415, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:04.989Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:18.520Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Rafael López Aliaga, Keiko Fujimori, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Pedro Castillo, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yonhy Lescano, Hernando de Soto, Keiko Fujimori, Rafael López Aliaga, Pedro Castillo, Verónika Mendoza, George Forsyth, Daniel Urresti, César Acuña, Alberto Beingolea, Julio Guzmán, Ollanta Humala, Daniel Salaverry" }, { "title": "Who will win the 2021 special election in Texas' 6th District?", @@ -69324,55 +69487,55 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Susan Wright", - "probability": 0.7941176470588236, + "probability": 0.7596153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jana Sanchez", - "probability": 0.12745098039215685, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Dan Rodimer", - "probability": 0.0196078431372549, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Katrina Pierson", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Sery Kim", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.13461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jake Ellzey", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Dan Rodimer", + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Katrina Pierson", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Sery Kim", + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Harrison", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lydia Bean", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shawn Lassiter", - "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:11.204Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:22.249Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Dan Rodimer, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Jake Ellzey, Brian Harrison, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Susan Wright, Jana Sanchez, Jake Ellzey, Dan Rodimer, Katrina Pierson, Sery Kim, Brian Harrison, Lydia Bean, Shawn Lassiter" }, { "title": "Who will be elected mayor of Seattle in 2021?", @@ -69382,50 +69545,50 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Lorena González", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.5196078431372549, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jessyn Farrell", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.19607843137254902, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Colleen Echohawk", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.11764705882352941, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bruce Harrell", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08823529411764705, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Grant Houston", - "probability": 0.05, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Lance Randall", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jenny Durkan", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lance Randall", + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "James Donaldson", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:17.248Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:28.392Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Andrew Grant Houston, Lance Randall, Jenny Durkan, James Donaldson" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Lorena González, Jessyn Farrell, Colleen Echohawk, Bruce Harrell, Andrew Grant Houston, Jenny Durkan, Lance Randall, James Donaldson" }, { "title": "Who will be the next Senate-confirmed U.S. Ambassador to China?", @@ -69435,7 +69598,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nicholas Burns", - "probability": 0.72, + "probability": 0.76, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69445,7 +69608,7 @@ }, { "name": "Claire McCaskill", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69464,7 +69627,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:22.064Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:32.177Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69478,7 +69641,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.52, + "probability": 0.49, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69508,7 +69671,7 @@ }, { "name": "Geoff Duncan", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69517,7 +69680,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:26.229Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:37.632Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69531,26 +69694,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "New Hampshire", - "probability": 0.6237623762376238, + "probability": 0.64, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nevada", - "probability": 0.16831683168316833, + "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Iowa", - "probability": 0.10891089108910891, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "South Carolina", - "probability": 0.09900990099009901, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:30.463Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:43.283Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69564,16 +69727,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.71, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.29000000000000004, + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:36.161Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:47.407Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69596,7 +69759,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:40.755Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:52.528Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69610,61 +69773,61 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Eric Schmitt", - "probability": 0.39999999999999997, + "probability": 0.39215686274509803, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Eric Greitens", - "probability": 0.37142857142857144, + "probability": 0.37254901960784315, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jason Smith", - "probability": 0.10476190476190476, + "probability": 0.09803921568627451, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ann Wagner", - "probability": 0.03809523809523809, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vicky Hartzler", - "probability": 0.02857142857142857, + "probability": 0.029411764705882353, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Blunt", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Kehoe", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jay Ashcroft", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Billy Long", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Carl Edwards", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Brunner", - "probability": 0.009523809523809523, + "probability": 0.00980392156862745, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:44.631Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:52:57.601Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69678,41 +69841,41 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mark Walker", - "probability": 0.32, + "probability": 0.37735849056603776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lara Trump", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.24528301886792453, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Pat McCrory", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.20754716981132074, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Budd", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.14150943396226415, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Burr", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dan Forest", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mark Meadows", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009433962264150943, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:50.598Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:02.864Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69726,16 +69889,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.14, + "probability": 0.16, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.86, + "probability": 0.84, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:54.986Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:07.448Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69749,16 +69912,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.53, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.5, + "probability": 0.47, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:16:59.799Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:11.972Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69782,22 +69945,22 @@ }, { "name": "6 or 7 votes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8 or 9 votes", - "probability": 0.1, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "10 or 11 votes", "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "10 or 11 votes", + "probability": 0.12, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "12 or 13 votes", - "probability": 0.1, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69807,21 +69970,21 @@ }, { "name": "16 or 17 votes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18 or 19 votes", - "probability": 0.07, + "probability": 0.06, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "20 or more", - "probability": 0.26, + "probability": 0.27, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:03.764Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:18.001Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69844,7 +70007,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:07.296Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:22.831Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69867,7 +70030,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:13.018Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:26.356Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69890,7 +70053,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:17.946Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:32.263Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69923,7 +70086,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:23.407Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:37.024Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -69937,17 +70100,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Letitia James", - "probability": 0.38, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrew Cuomo", - "probability": 0.24, + "probability": 0.26, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kathy Hochul", - "probability": 0.12, + "probability": 0.11, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -69956,7 +70119,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", + "name": "Andrew Yang", "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -69971,7 +70134,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Andrew Yang", + "name": "A. Ocasio-Cortez", "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, @@ -69996,11 +70159,11 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:27.721Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:42.171Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Yang, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Letitia James, Andrew Cuomo, Kathy Hochul, Alessandra Biaggi, Andrew Yang, Jumaane Williams, Kirsten Gillibrand, A. Ocasio-Cortez, Bill de Blasio, Thomas DiNapoli, Tom Suozzi, Hillary Clinton" }, { "title": "Will Andrew Cuomo be impeached before Sept. 1?", @@ -70010,16 +70173,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.85, + "probability": 0.86, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:31.991Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:46.109Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70041,27 +70204,27 @@ "probability": 0.33, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Erica Smith", + "probability": 0.05, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Richard Lee Watkins", "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, - { - "name": "Erica Smith", - "probability": 0.03, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, { "name": "Heath Shuler", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:37.408Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:49.829Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Richard Lee Watkins, Erica Smith, Heath Shuler" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Jeff Jackson, Cheri Beasley, Erica Smith, Richard Lee Watkins, Heath Shuler" }, { "title": "Which party will win the U.S. Senate election in Alaska in 2022?", @@ -70071,21 +70234,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.8269230769230769, + "probability": 0.8349514563106796, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Independent", - "probability": 0.13461538461538464, + "probability": 0.1359223300970874, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.038461538461538464, + "probability": 0.029126213592233007, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:43.500Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:54.501Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70099,46 +70262,46 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Nina Turner", - "probability": 0.7, + "probability": 0.7155963302752293, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shontel Brown", - "probability": 0.24545454545454545, + "probability": 0.2293577981651376, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Barnes Jr.", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bryan Flannery", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Johnson", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tariq Shabazz", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shirley Smith", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Dennis Kucinich", - "probability": 0.00909090909090909, + "probability": 0.009174311926605503, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:47.406Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:53:59.729Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70152,7 +70315,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Kind", - "probability": 0.31, + "probability": 0.28, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70167,11 +70330,11 @@ }, { "name": "Tom Nelson", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.1, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:53.645Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:03.534Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70185,16 +70348,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.9, + "probability": 0.89, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.09999999999999998, + "probability": 0.10999999999999999, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:17:58.577Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:08.975Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70208,41 +70371,41 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Mo Brooks", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.8252427184466019, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Katie Britt", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.10679611650485436, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lynda Blanchard", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.029126213592233007, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Richard Shelby", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "John Merrill", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Roy Moore", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeff Sessions", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009708737864077669, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:02.024Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:13.784Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70265,7 +70428,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:05.544Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:17.200Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70328,7 +70491,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:10.311Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:22.224Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70342,22 +70505,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Fewer than 1.6M", - "probability": 0.06896551724137932, + "probability": 0.06481481481481481, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.6M to 1.625M", - "probability": 0.03448275862068966, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.625M to 1.65M", - "probability": 0.07758620689655173, + "probability": 0.07407407407407407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.65M to 1.675M", - "probability": 0.13793103448275865, + "probability": 0.14814814814814814, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70372,26 +70535,26 @@ }, { "name": "1.725M to 1.75M", - "probability": 0.12068965517241381, + "probability": 0.12962962962962962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.75M to 1.775M", - "probability": 0.02586206896551724, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.775M to 1.8M", - "probability": 0.01724137931034483, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1.8M or more", - "probability": 0.01724137931034483, + "probability": 0.009259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:15.533Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:25.605Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70414,7 +70577,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:21.565Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:28.886Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70428,7 +70591,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Chuck Grassley", - "probability": 0.51, + "probability": 0.52, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70452,7 +70615,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:26.440Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:32.413Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70471,12 +70634,12 @@ }, { "name": "4 or 5", - "probability": 0.27777777777777773, + "probability": 0.24074074074074073, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6 or 7", - "probability": 0.6666666666666666, + "probability": 0.7037037037037037, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70500,7 +70663,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:32.157Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:38.099Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70514,12 +70677,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron Johnson", - "probability": 0.53, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Mike Gallagher", - "probability": 0.16, + "probability": 0.6, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70527,6 +70685,11 @@ "probability": 0.15, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, + { + "name": "Mike Gallagher", + "probability": 0.14, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, { "name": "Brian Steil", "probability": 0.08, @@ -70534,15 +70697,15 @@ }, { "name": "Scott Walker", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.03, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:35.678Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:42.024Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Mike Gallagher, Kevin Nicholson, Brian Steil, Scott Walker" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron Johnson, Kevin Nicholson, Mike Gallagher, Brian Steil, Scott Walker" }, { "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Samantha Power as USAID Administrator by 4/30?", @@ -70552,56 +70715,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "59 or fewer", - "probability": 0.5999999999999998, + "probability": 0.16346153846153846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "60 to 62", - "probability": 0.026086956521739122, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "63 to 65", - "probability": 0.026086956521739122, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "66 to 68", - "probability": 0.03478260869565216, + "probability": 0.04807692307692308, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69 to 71", - "probability": 0.03478260869565216, + "probability": 0.06730769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "72 to 74", - "probability": 0.052173913043478244, + "probability": 0.08653846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "75 to 77", - "probability": 0.052173913043478244, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "78 to 80", - "probability": 0.06086956521739129, + "probability": 0.10576923076923077, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "81 to 83", - "probability": 0.052173913043478244, + "probability": 0.11538461538461538, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "84 or more", - "probability": 0.06086956521739129, + "probability": 0.21153846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:39.582Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:46.796Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70615,16 +70778,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.68, + "probability": 0.63, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.31999999999999995, + "probability": 0.37, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:45.849Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:52.224Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70638,22 +70801,22 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Brian Kemp", - "probability": 0.55, + "probability": 0.57, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Vernon Jones", - "probability": 0.19, + "probability": 0.18, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Doug Collins", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.08, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Herschel Walker", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70662,7 +70825,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:51.448Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:54:56.811Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70676,56 +70839,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 2%", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.09708737864077668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 4%", - "probability": 0.11320754716981131, + "probability": 0.10679611650485435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 6%", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.116504854368932, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 8%", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.12621359223300968, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 10%", - "probability": 0.12264150943396226, + "probability": 0.10679611650485435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "10% to 12%", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.09708737864077668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "12% to 14%", - "probability": 0.08490566037735849, + "probability": 0.087378640776699, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "14% to 16%", - "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "16% to 18%", - "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "probability": 0.06796116504854367, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "18% or more", - "probability": 0.10377358490566037, + "probability": 0.12621359223300968, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:18:57.798Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:01.934Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70748,7 +70911,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:03.868Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:05.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70762,7 +70925,7 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70782,12 +70945,12 @@ }, { "name": "59 to 61", - "probability": 0.23, + "probability": 0.25, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "62 to 64", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -70797,21 +70960,21 @@ }, { "name": "68 to 70", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.04, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "71 to 73", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.01, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "74 or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:09.943Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:10.031Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70825,56 +70988,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "probability": 0.039603960396039604, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.36792452830188677, + "probability": 0.39603960396039606, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.3113207547169811, + "probability": 0.297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "probability": 0.18811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.028301886792452827, + "probability": 0.0297029702970297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.009433962264150943, + "probability": 0.009900990099009901, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:16.255Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:14.372Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70888,56 +71051,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "49 or fewer", - "probability": 0.15, + "probability": 0.18269230769230768, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "50", - "probability": 0.67, + "probability": 0.6153846153846154, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "51", - "probability": 0.08, + "probability": 0.09615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "52", - "probability": 0.02, + "probability": 0.038461538461538464, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "53", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.019230769230769232, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "54", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "55", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "56", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "58 or more", - "probability": 0.01, + "probability": 0.009615384615384616, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:20.671Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:18.194Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70956,11 +71119,11 @@ }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.12, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:25.180Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:22.520Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -70979,16 +71142,16 @@ }, { "name": "Brad Raffensperger", - "probability": 0.13, + "probability": 0.14, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Belle Isle", - "probability": 0.06, + "probability": 0.05, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:29.043Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:27.756Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71026,7 +71189,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:34.961Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:32.598Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71040,16 +71203,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.17, + "probability": 0.22, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.83, + "probability": 0.78, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:39.458Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:38.577Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71063,16 +71226,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Republican", - "probability": 0.89, + "probability": 0.8811881188118812, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Democratic", - "probability": 0.11, + "probability": 0.1188118811881188, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:43.155Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:42.273Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71095,7 +71258,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:48.937Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:45.884Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71109,16 +71272,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.78, + "probability": 0.69, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.21999999999999997, + "probability": 0.31000000000000005, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:53.435Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:49.150Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71132,30 +71295,30 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.77, + "probability": 0.7450980392156863, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Fried", - "probability": 0.13, - "type": "PROBABILITY" - }, - { - "name": "Val Demings", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.16666666666666669, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Charlie Crist", - "probability": 0.04, + "probability": 0.049019607843137254, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Val Demings", + "probability": 0.0392156862745098, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:19:59.135Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:54.812Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Nikki Fried, Val Demings, Charlie Crist" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Ron DeSantis, Nikki Fried, Charlie Crist, Val Demings" }, { "title": "What will be the margin in the first round of the presidential election in Peru?", @@ -71165,56 +71328,56 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Under 1%", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.2857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "1% to 2%", - "probability": 0.25, + "probability": 0.29523809523809524, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2% to 3%", - "probability": 0.2, + "probability": 0.19047619047619047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "3% to 4%", - "probability": 0.09, + "probability": 0.07619047619047618, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "4% to 5%", - "probability": 0.05, + "probability": 0.047619047619047616, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "5% to 6%", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.02857142857142857, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "6% to 7%", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "7% to 8%", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "8% to 9%", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "9% or more", - "probability": 0.03, + "probability": 0.019047619047619046, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:02.967Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:55:59.392Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, @@ -71228,61 +71391,124 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Arauz by 5% or more", - "probability": 0.16814159292035397, + "probability": 0.21296296296296297, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arauz by 4% - 5%", - "probability": 0.10619469026548671, + "probability": 0.09259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arauz by 3% - 4%", - "probability": 0.07964601769911503, + "probability": 0.12962962962962962, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arauz by 2% - 3%", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.16666666666666666, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arauz by 1% - 2%", - "probability": 0.16814159292035397, + "probability": 0.09259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arauz, less than 1%", - "probability": 0.15044247787610618, + "probability": 0.09259259259259259, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lasso, less than 1%", - "probability": 0.15044247787610618, + "probability": 0.08333333333333333, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lasso by 1% - 2%", - "probability": 0.035398230088495575, + "probability": 0.037037037037037035, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lasso by 2% - 3%", - "probability": 0.053097345132743355, + "probability": 0.027777777777777776, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Lasso by 3% or more", - "probability": 0.04424778761061947, + "probability": 0.06481481481481481, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:06.594Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:56:03.618Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 3 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "Arauz by 5% or more, Arauz by 4% - 5%, Arauz by 3% - 4%, Arauz by 2% - 3%, Arauz by 1% - 2%, Arauz, less than 1%, Lasso, less than 1%, Lasso by 1% - 2%, Lasso by 2% - 3%, Lasso by 3% or more" }, + { + "title": "How many Senators vote to confirm Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman by 5/31?", + "url": "https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7215/How-many-Senators-vote-to-confirm-Gary-Gensler-as-SEC-Chairman-by-5-31", + "platform": "PredictIt", + "description": "Please Note: PredictIt added a supplementary comment at the bottom of the Rules on 04/09/2021.\nThe contract that resolves to Yes shall correspond to the number or range of votes cast in the U.S. Senate, in a vote commencing before the End Date listed below, in favor of the confirmation of Gary Gensler to the position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, according to the official vote tally reported by the website senate.gov or, should that source be unavailable, the Congressional Record or other official source.\nA vote on the nomination shall be considered to have commenced once at least one Senator has cast a vote. So long as such a vote commences before the End Date, the full results of the vote will be used to resolve this market, even if the vote concludes after the End Date. The results of the vote need not be available at the identified settlement source at the End Date.\nAny vote cast by the Vice President on the nomination shall not be considered for purposes of this market.\nShould no confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Gensler to the position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission commence before the End Date; or should such a vote result in the rejection of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes; or should Mr. Gensler be confirmed to position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission in a vote that commences only after the End Date; the contract identifying the range \"49 or fewer\" shall resolve to Yes. Should a vote result in the confirmation of the nominee via a procedure that does not result in the recording of a tally of votes, the contract identifying the range \"74 or more\" shall resolve to Yes. Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Gensler to the position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \nThe outcomes of committee votes, hearings, or reports, cloture votes and other procedural votes will have no impact on the resolution of this market.\nPredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.\nEnd Date: 05/31/2021 11:59 PM (ET)\n\nSupplementary Comment(s)\n\nCreated On: 04/09/2021 8:30 AM (ET)\nIn response to trader inquiry: The Rules state, “Should more than one Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Mr. Gensler to the position of Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission be held before the End Date, the outcome of the first such vote will be used to resolve this market.” \nThis means that whichever confirmation vote on Mr. Gensler for SEC Chairman takes place first before the End Date (whether for the term ending in June 2021, or for a term from 2021-2026) , the first such vote will be used to resolve this market. \n", + "options": [ + { + "name": "49 or fewer", + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50 to 52", + "probability": 0.018867924528301886, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "53 to 55", + "probability": 0.09433962264150944, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "56 to 58", + "probability": 0.16981132075471697, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "59 to 61", + "probability": 0.1981132075471698, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "62 to 64", + "probability": 0.1792452830188679, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "65 to 67", + "probability": 0.1509433962264151, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "68 to 70", + "probability": 0.056603773584905655, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "71 to 73", + "probability": 0.03773584905660377, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "74 or more", + "probability": 0.07547169811320754, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:56:07.757Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 3 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "49 or fewer, 50 to 52, 53 to 55, 56 to 58, 59 to 61, 62 to 64, 65 to 67, 68 to 70, 71 to 73, 74 or more" + }, { "title": "Will EIP1559 be live on Mainnet before September? ", "url": "https://omen.eth.link/#/0x36cb6942bc9e2b07d7ad4fe33b3fef11be05a28c", @@ -71300,7 +71526,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:56:08.698Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 1 }, @@ -71323,7 +71549,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:20:08.316Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:56:08.698Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 1 }, @@ -71337,27 +71563,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sajid Javid", - "probability": 0.03746229444390386, + "probability": 0.0389321468298109, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Rory Stewart", - "probability": 0.0009730466089325679, + "probability": 0.0010112245929821014, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jacob Rees-Mogg", - "probability": 0.025591125814926532, + "probability": 0.026595206795429264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Penny Mordaunt", - "probability": 0.027050695728325382, + "probability": 0.028112043684902416, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jeremy Hunt", - "probability": 0.10810547825240828, + "probability": 0.11234705228031146, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71367,22 +71593,22 @@ }, { "name": "Dominic Raab", - "probability": 0.06490220881580228, + "probability": 0.06744868035190615, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Tugendhat", - "probability": 0.06276150627615062, + "probability": 0.06522398624734553, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Priti Patel", - "probability": 0.05264182154325192, + "probability": 0.05470725048033168, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Amber Rudd", - "probability": 0.00544906101002238, + "probability": 0.0056628577206997675, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71392,27 +71618,27 @@ }, { "name": "Michael Gove", - "probability": 0.0810547825240829, + "probability": 0.08423500859540904, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Matthew Hancock", - "probability": 0.05264182154325192, + "probability": 0.05470725048033168, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liz Truss", - "probability": 0.07482728422691447, + "probability": 0.0777631712003236, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Gavin Williamson", - "probability": 0.03892186435730271, + "probability": 0.04044898371928405, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Andrea Leadsom", - "probability": 0.013914566507735718, + "probability": 0.014460511679644048, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71427,17 +71653,17 @@ }, { "name": "Steve Baker", - "probability": 0.030359054198696115, + "probability": 0.03155020730104156, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ruth Davidson", - "probability": 0.023158509292595112, + "probability": 0.02406714531297401, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Esther McVey", - "probability": 0.009730466089325677, + "probability": 0.010112245929821012, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71447,11 +71673,11 @@ }, { "name": "Rishi Sunak", - "probability": 0.2904544127663715, + "probability": 0.2626150267974517, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:11.915Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:28.619Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71474,7 +71700,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.285Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:29.595Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71488,27 +71714,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Friedrich Merz", - "probability": 0.005478779949300842, + "probability": 0.005602006688963212, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer", - "probability": 0.017744705208929592, + "probability": 0.0181438127090301, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jens Spahn", - "probability": 0.05274347861640363, + "probability": 0.05392976588628763, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Armin Laschet", - "probability": 0.32709134025676667, + "probability": 0.31195652173913047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Robert Habeck", - "probability": 0.07114236650584675, + "probability": 0.07274247491638795, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71528,7 +71754,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ralph Brinkhaus", - "probability": 0.03409927222176792, + "probability": 0.034866220735785956, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71563,7 +71789,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ursula Von der Leyen", - "probability": 0.025513124540027802, + "probability": 0.026086956521739132, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -71578,26 +71804,26 @@ }, { "name": "Markus Söder", - "probability": 0.3683866219641835, + "probability": 0.3766722408026756, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olaf Scholz", - "probability": 0.01169351541417941, + "probability": 0.011956521739130435, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Norbert Röttgen", - "probability": 0.002698503557118325, + "probability": 0.002759197324414716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Annalena Baerbock", - "probability": 0.0834082917654755, + "probability": 0.08528428093645485, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.637Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:30.538Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71674,7 +71900,7 @@ "probability": null } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:12.995Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:31.440Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71705,7 +71931,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.244Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:32.517Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71719,16 +71945,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.05664798777381558, + "probability": 0.0766852812126047, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.9433520122261844, + "probability": 0.9233147187873953, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.580Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:33.482Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71906,7 +72132,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:13.957Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:34.440Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71944,7 +72170,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:14.318Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:35.366Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -71986,7 +72212,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:14.674Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:36.478Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72104,7 +72330,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:15.060Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:37.472Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72132,7 +72358,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:15.306Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:38.468Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72155,7 +72381,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:15.675Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:39.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72188,7 +72414,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.032Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:40.391Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72202,26 +72428,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.7438850205320477, + "probability": 0.7360382739902475, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservatives", - "probability": 0.21255133011962146, + "probability": 0.2190633912963474, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Plaid Cymru", - "probability": 0.030798071772897697, + "probability": 0.03174165056582942, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.012765577575432957, + "probability": 0.013156684147575672, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.387Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:41.295Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72235,90 +72461,91 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Emmanuel Macron", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.5228430934286992, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marine Le Pen", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.20321859633437642, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Luc Mélenchon", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.045864997764863656, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "François Baroin", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.06383549396513187, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Xavier Bertrand", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.03442109968708092, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Yannick Jadot", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.044702726866338846, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Olivier Faure", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.04255699597675458, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean-Marie Bigard", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Jean Lassalle", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Joachim Son-Forget", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Anne Hidalgo", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.04255699597675458, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Bernard Cazeneuve", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nicolas Dupont-Aignan", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Arnaud Montebourg", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ségolène Royal", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Florian Philippot", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Edouard Philippe", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:16.737Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:42.212Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72349,7 +72576,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:17.115Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:43.082Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72548,7 +72775,7 @@ "probability": null } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:17.503Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:44.041Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72571,7 +72798,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:17.656Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:44.988Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72594,7 +72821,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:18.026Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:45.908Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72608,21 +72835,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2023 or earlier", - "probability": 0.4925623091321052, + "probability": 0.49633323555294806, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024", - "probability": 0.17909565560043345, + "probability": 0.17776474039307716, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2025 or later", - "probability": 0.3283420352674613, + "probability": 0.3259020240539748, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:18.394Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:46.871Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72636,65 +72863,65 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.9543086172344687, + "probability": 0.9608274208054359, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.010521042084168335, + "probability": 0.01109223543519536, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.03336673346693386, + "probability": 0.0262816028779854, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.0009993004896572397, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Farah London", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.00010020040080160318, + "probability": 0.00009993004896572396, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:18.746Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:47.776Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72717,7 +72944,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:19.168Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:48.690Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72750,7 +72977,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:19.530Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:49.581Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72773,7 +73000,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:19.876Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:50.482Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72806,7 +73033,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:20.294Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:51.448Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72820,26 +73047,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5149700598802395, + "probability": 0.5239000777941049, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.355054596688975, + "probability": 0.34851759011150485, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.08805917576611483, + "probability": 0.08643789437289306, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Green", - "probability": 0.041916167664670656, + "probability": 0.0411444377214971, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:20.657Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:52.328Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72862,7 +73089,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.064Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:53.268Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72876,27 +73103,27 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Simon Coveney", - "probability": 0.6111636707663197, + "probability": 0.5963112517734366, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Paschal Donohoe", - "probability": 0.09145380006307156, + "probability": 0.09494706973698569, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Helen McEntee", - "probability": 0.1142646904236308, + "probability": 0.11862926988977407, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josepha Madigan", - "probability": 0.0875643855776306, + "probability": 0.0909090909090909, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Simon Harris", - "probability": 0.0955534531693472, + "probability": 0.09920331769071264, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -72955,7 +73182,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.223Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:54.180Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -72978,7 +73205,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.473Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:55.080Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73066,7 +73293,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:21.862Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:56.016Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73089,7 +73316,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:22.209Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:56.896Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73112,7 +73339,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:22.569Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:57.765Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73135,7 +73362,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:22.838Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:58.633Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73158,7 +73385,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:23.095Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:57:59.608Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73181,7 +73408,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:23.484Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:00.584Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73279,7 +73506,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:23.844Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:01.486Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73302,7 +73529,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:24.197Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:02.520Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73316,16 +73543,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5141385676804975, + "probability": 0.550965424337674, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.4858614323195025, + "probability": 0.449034575662326, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:24.558Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:03.452Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73358,7 +73585,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:24.967Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:04.439Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73381,7 +73608,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:25.300Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:05.321Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73395,16 +73622,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.3476521573483189, + "probability": 0.3333637775139282, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.6523478426516811, + "probability": 0.6666362224860718, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:25.657Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:06.252Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73427,7 +73654,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:26.016Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:07.222Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73530,7 +73757,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:26.425Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:08.163Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73544,57 +73771,57 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.29248387521390024, + "probability": 0.2792973987664253, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.021982361458470448, + "probability": 0.022392062215071066, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.031328155850993814, + "probability": 0.03191204076159828, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.05265236277477952, + "probability": 0.053633681952266025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.03659339212847176, + "probability": 0.037275408956824886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.03659339212847176, + "probability": 0.037275408956824886, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.15664077925496908, + "probability": 0.15956020380799144, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Marco Rubio", - "probability": 0.02632618138738976, + "probability": 0.026816840976133013, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Josh Hawley", - "probability": 0.03461892852441753, + "probability": 0.03526414588361491, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.08226931683559299, + "probability": 0.08380262805041566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.05265236277477952, + "probability": 0.053633681952266025, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73619,21 +73846,21 @@ }, { "name": "Rick Scott", - "probability": 0.01316309069369488, + "probability": 0.013408420488066506, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tim Scott", - "probability": 0.01316309069369488, + "probability": 0.013408420488066506, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.14953271028037382, + "probability": 0.1523196567444355, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:26.777Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:09.108Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73647,47 +73874,47 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Joe Biden", - "probability": 0.18172898724517608, + "probability": 0.17955622576475658, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Kamala Harris", - "probability": 0.21377957047857843, + "probability": 0.21122361051271002, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump", - "probability": 0.10901558922925977, + "probability": 0.11966824644549762, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tucker Carlson", - "probability": 0.02474653875504197, + "probability": 0.024450667815596724, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Tom Cotton", - "probability": 0.010901558922925977, + "probability": 0.010771219302024989, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mike Pence", - "probability": 0.03761037828409462, + "probability": 0.03716070659198621, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Donald Trump Jr.", - "probability": 0.06410116646680475, + "probability": 0.06333476949590694, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Ted Cruz", - "probability": 0.01984083723972528, + "probability": 0.01960361912968548, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez", - "probability": 0.07271339801591627, + "probability": 0.07184403274450668, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73697,7 +73924,7 @@ }, { "name": "Nikki Haley", - "probability": 0.07031505505287255, + "probability": 0.06947436449806119, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73727,7 +73954,7 @@ }, { "name": "Pete Buttigieg", - "probability": 0.05450779461462989, + "probability": 0.05385609651012494, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73747,7 +73974,7 @@ }, { "name": "Mike Pompeo", - "probability": 0.027253897307314943, + "probability": 0.02692804825506247, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73767,7 +73994,7 @@ }, { "name": "Ivanka Trump", - "probability": 0.05450779461462989, + "probability": 0.05385609651012494, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73782,11 +74009,11 @@ }, { "name": "Ron DeSantis", - "probability": 0.05897743377302954, + "probability": 0.05827229642395519, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:27.157Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:10.077Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73800,17 +74027,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.8967140570567743, + "probability": 0.921974830590513, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Sadiq Khan", - "probability": 0.027681009321156202, + "probability": 0.014908034849951598, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.01449957631108182, + "probability": 0.014908034849951598, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -73820,21 +74047,21 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.05705677431503625, + "probability": 0.04404646660212972, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Mandu Reid", - "probability": 0.0009415309292910274, + "probability": 0.000968054211035818, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.0031070520666603902, + "probability": 0.0031945788964181997, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:27.418Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:11.016Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73857,7 +74084,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:27.771Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:11.957Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73880,7 +74107,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:28.138Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:12.898Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73903,7 +74130,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:28.481Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:13.819Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73931,7 +74158,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:28.829Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:14.756Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73945,31 +74172,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative (Høyre)", - "probability": 0.482994803967879, + "probability": 0.4923469387755102, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)", - "probability": 0.29822075263737996, + "probability": 0.29282622139765, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Centre (Senterpartiet)", - "probability": 0.1312391749330814, + "probability": 0.12886518243661105, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Progress (Fremskrittspartiet)", - "probability": 0.043772634230829784, + "probability": 0.04298082869511441, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Socialist Left (Sosialistisk Venstreparti)", - "probability": 0.043772634230829784, + "probability": 0.04298082869511441, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:29.191Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:15.719Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -73997,7 +74224,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:29.549Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:16.597Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74020,7 +74247,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:29.882Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:17.686Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74043,7 +74270,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:30.139Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:18.629Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74066,7 +74293,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:30.486Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:19.601Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74109,7 +74336,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:30.855Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:20.526Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74152,7 +74379,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:31.218Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:21.458Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74175,7 +74402,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:31.577Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:22.514Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74198,7 +74425,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:31.957Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:23.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74221,7 +74448,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:32.300Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:24.248Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74244,7 +74471,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:32.659Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:25.240Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74272,7 +74499,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:33.015Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:26.185Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74295,7 +74522,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:33.372Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:27.060Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74318,7 +74545,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:33.669Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:27.962Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74341,7 +74568,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:34.159Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:28.820Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74364,7 +74591,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:34.401Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:29.785Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74417,7 +74644,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:34.652Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:30.700Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74440,7 +74667,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.008Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:31.700Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74473,7 +74700,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.384Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:32.584Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74496,7 +74723,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.639Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:33.434Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74519,7 +74746,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:35.990Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:34.339Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74542,7 +74769,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:36.335Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:35.311Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74565,7 +74792,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:36.725Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:36.216Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74573,7 +74800,7 @@ }, { "title": "Lisa Nandy to remain the Labour Party's Shadow Secretary of State for FCO until at least the 1st January 2022", - "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet-ministers/lisa-nandy", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42048963/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet/lisa-nandy", "platform": "Smarkets", "description": "", "options": [ @@ -74588,7 +74815,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:37.082Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:37.120Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74621,7 +74848,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:37.327Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:38.072Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74644,7 +74871,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:37.697Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:38.951Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74668,16 +74895,16 @@ }, { "name": "54-56%", - "probability": 0.47237606375793595, + "probability": 0.4414289320878566, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "57%+", - "probability": 0.527623936242064, + "probability": 0.5585710679121434, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:37.983Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:39.864Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74700,7 +74927,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:38.346Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:40.736Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74763,7 +74990,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:38.723Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:41.635Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74791,7 +75018,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:39.108Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:42.567Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74814,7 +75041,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:39.501Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:43.463Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74828,16 +75055,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Less than 2.0%", - "probability": 0.4313450760608487, + "probability": 0.3495081967213115, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2.0% or more", - "probability": 0.5686549239391513, + "probability": 0.6504918032786885, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:39.871Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:44.363Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74851,16 +75078,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.5419987175964093, + "probability": 0.5434623813002191, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.4580012824035907, + "probability": 0.4565376186997808, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:40.218Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:45.260Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74883,7 +75110,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:40.566Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:46.147Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74906,7 +75133,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:40.942Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:47.028Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74929,7 +75156,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:41.301Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:47.901Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74957,7 +75184,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:41.670Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:48.864Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -74985,7 +75212,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:41.923Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:49.706Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75018,7 +75245,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:42.270Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:50.588Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75046,7 +75273,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:42.629Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:51.519Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75069,7 +75296,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:43.016Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:52.462Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75092,7 +75319,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:43.259Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:53.348Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75120,7 +75347,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:43.646Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:54.268Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75143,7 +75370,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:43.912Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:55.192Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75166,7 +75393,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:44.275Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:56.125Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75189,7 +75416,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:44.514Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:57.028Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75203,16 +75430,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.2177047867013819, + "probability": 0.21501335179507466, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022 or later", - "probability": 0.7822952132986181, + "probability": 0.7849866482049254, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:45.017Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:57.866Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75235,7 +75462,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:45.162Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:58.804Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75258,7 +75485,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:45.525Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:58:59.665Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75281,7 +75508,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:45.894Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:00.579Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75304,7 +75531,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:46.246Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:01.444Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75327,7 +75554,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:46.616Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:02.357Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75341,16 +75568,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.694438927507448, + "probability": 0.7190210939640216, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.3055610724925521, + "probability": 0.28097890603597847, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:46.988Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:03.312Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75364,16 +75591,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6907772570519056, + "probability": 0.7026613383215713, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.30922274294809443, + "probability": 0.2973386616784287, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:47.368Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:04.300Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75387,16 +75614,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": 0.6484943364950732, + "probability": 0.6747669113271177, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.3515056635049268, + "probability": 0.32523308867288236, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:47.726Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:05.160Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75419,7 +75646,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:48.082Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:06.056Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75447,7 +75674,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:48.423Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:06.990Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75470,7 +75697,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:48.771Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:07.972Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75493,7 +75720,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:49.138Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:09.010Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75521,7 +75748,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:49.490Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:09.917Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75544,7 +75771,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:49.845Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:11.042Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75567,7 +75794,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:50.199Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:11.979Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75595,7 +75822,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:50.546Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:12.952Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75618,7 +75845,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:50.904Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:13.804Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75646,7 +75873,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:51.148Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:14.730Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75669,7 +75896,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:51.387Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:15.638Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75692,7 +75919,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:51.774Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:16.563Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75715,7 +75942,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:52.037Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:17.496Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75738,7 +75965,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:52.274Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:18.362Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75761,7 +75988,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:52.547Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:19.258Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75784,7 +76011,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:52.898Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:20.241Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75807,7 +76034,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:53.163Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:21.108Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75830,7 +76057,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:53.512Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:22.003Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75853,7 +76080,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:53.896Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:22.899Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75876,7 +76103,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:54.371Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:23.768Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75904,7 +76131,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:54.621Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:24.637Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75918,35 +76145,39 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.4231956773446546, + "probability": 0.416405582455141, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5513315322269394, + "probability": 0.5617582834899839, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Reform UK", - "probability": 0.01379776148205326, + "probability": 0.013576378999335422, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.0009648784253184099, + "probability": 0.0009493971328206589, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { - "name": "Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)", - "probability": 0.010710150521034351, + "probability": 0.007310357922719074, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Thelma Walker", + "probability": 0, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:54.888Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:25.544Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, - "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, Northern Independence Party (Thelma Walker)" + "optionsstringforsearch": "Labour, Conservative, Reform UK, Liberal Democrats, , Thelma Walker" }, { "title": "Joe Biden exit date", @@ -75980,7 +76211,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:55.028Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:26.445Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -75994,31 +76225,31 @@ "options": [ { "name": "60 or fewer", - "probability": 0.2520079372578664, + "probability": 0.23774291317525406, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "61–64", - "probability": 0.20995936879901728, + "probability": 0.19807452308789444, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "65–68", - "probability": 0.20995936879901728, + "probability": 0.2546799786058121, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "69–72", - "probability": 0.19682509685344418, + "probability": 0.1856837225886967, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "73 or more", - "probability": 0.13124822829065483, + "probability": 0.12381886254234266, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:55.370Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:27.316Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76041,7 +76272,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:55.636Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:28.216Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76055,16 +76286,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.3622957353527302, + "probability": 0.4344293634104378, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.6377042646472698, + "probability": 0.5655706365895622, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:55.985Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:29.128Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76078,16 +76309,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 1, + "probability": 0.3811701924909472, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0, + "probability": 0.6188298075090528, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:56.370Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:30.048Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76101,21 +76332,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": 0.5772065274609581, + "probability": 0.6113175989593013, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Labour", - "probability": 0.1949464818389191, + "probability": 0.20646719940531497, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": 0.22784699070012282, + "probability": 0.18221520163538374, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:56.717Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:30.934Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76138,7 +76369,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:56.963Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:31.861Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76152,17 +76383,17 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Siân Berry", - "probability": 0.567551737602499, + "probability": 0.5507768093974991, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Luisa Porritt", - "probability": 0.35630613041780557, + "probability": 0.34577491474043204, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Shaun Bailey", - "probability": 0.017766497461928935, + "probability": 0.01724137931034483, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { @@ -76182,16 +76413,16 @@ }, { "name": "Brian Rose", - "probability": 0.044416243654822336, + "probability": 0.04310344827586207, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.013959390862944163, + "probability": 0.04310344827586207, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:57.313Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:32.809Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76205,26 +76436,26 @@ "options": [ { "name": "2021", - "probability": 0.4505287744112113, + "probability": 0.440473044397463, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2022", - "probability": 0.2333744241873743, + "probability": 0.23764534883720928, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2023", - "probability": 0.12242911827677935, + "probability": 0.12466966173361521, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "2024 or later", - "probability": 0.19366768312463506, + "probability": 0.19721194503171247, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:57.685Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:33.752Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76262,7 +76493,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:58.113Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:34.673Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76290,7 +76521,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:58.488Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:35.674Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76328,7 +76559,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:58.837Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:36.598Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76366,7 +76597,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:59.207Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:37.508Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76380,16 +76611,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Yes", - "probability": 0.5263105540634636, + "probability": 0.5302821069244427, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "No", - "probability": 0.47368944593653634, + "probability": 0.4697178930755573, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:59.536Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:38.492Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76412,7 +76643,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:24:59.891Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:39.376Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76439,7 +76670,7 @@ "probability": null } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:00.245Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:40.324Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76462,7 +76693,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:00.609Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:41.312Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76495,7 +76726,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:00.959Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:42.230Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76518,7 +76749,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:01.144Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:43.102Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76532,16 +76763,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Laurence Fox", - "probability": 0.9265658747300216, + "probability": 0.8807312542770555, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Max Fosh", - "probability": 0.07343412526997839, + "probability": 0.11926874572294456, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:01.519Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:44.016Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76555,16 +76786,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Peter Gammons", - "probability": 0.8196736092327112, + "probability": 0.8641634980988594, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "David Kurten", - "probability": 0.1803263907672888, + "probability": 0.1358365019011407, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:01.876Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:44.928Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76578,16 +76809,16 @@ "options": [ { "name": "Count Binface", - "probability": 0.2570613409415121, + "probability": 0.24492569771656397, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Piers Corbyn", - "probability": 0.7429386590584879, + "probability": 0.755074302283436, "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:02.232Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:45.876Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76610,7 +76841,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:02.584Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:46.740Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76638,7 +76869,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:02.969Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:47.637Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76661,7 +76892,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:03.315Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:48.515Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76684,7 +76915,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:03.685Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:49.424Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76707,7 +76938,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.058Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:50.405Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76730,7 +76961,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.416Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:51.340Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76758,7 +76989,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:04.649Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:52.250Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76781,7 +77012,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.004Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:53.219Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76804,7 +77035,7 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.381Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:54.118Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76818,20 +77049,21 @@ "options": [ { "name": "SNP", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.8695945945945945, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Liberal Democrats", - "probability": null, + "probability": 0.1304054054054054, "type": "PROBABILITY" }, { "name": "Conservative", - "probability": null + "probability": 0, + "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.628Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:55.077Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, @@ -76854,18 +77086,145 @@ "type": "PROBABILITY" } ], - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:05.990Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:56.183Z", "qualityindicators": { "stars": 2 }, "optionsstringforsearch": "SNP, Liberal Democrats" }, + { + "title": "Hartlepool by-election: Conservative vote share", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42155516/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election-conservative-vote-share", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "description": "What share of the vote will the Conservative Party candidate receive in the Hartlepool by-election?", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 40.0%", + "probability": 0.22488464340645997, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "40.0–44.9%", + "probability": 0.29118432769367764, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "45.0–49.9%", + "probability": 0.29118432769367764, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50.0% or over", + "probability": 0.19274670120618473, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:57.100Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 40.0%, 40.0–44.9%, 45.0–49.9%, 50.0% or over" + }, + { + "title": "Hartlepool by-election: Labour vote share", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42155547/politics/uk/by-elections/hartlepool-by-election-labour-vote-share", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "description": "What share of the vote will the Labour Party candidate receive in the Hartlepool by-election?", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Under 35.0%", + "probability": 0.1232819309420047, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "35.0–39.9%", + "probability": 0.2394401609118337, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "40.0–44.9%", + "probability": 0.31989607777405293, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "45.0–49.9%", + "probability": 0.21765001676164933, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "50.0% or over", + "probability": 0.09973181361045927, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:58.108Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Under 35.0%, 35.0–39.9%, 40.0–44.9%, 45.0–49.9%, 50.0% or over" + }, + { + "title": "Rishi Sunak to remain Chancellor", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42167432/politics/uk/cabinet/rishi-sunak-to-remain-chancellor", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "description": "Will Rishi Sunak be in position as Chancellor of the Exchequer on 1 January 2022?", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Yes", + "probability": 0.8183304568989009, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "No", + "probability": 0.1816695431010991, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:58.999Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Yes, No" + }, + { + "title": "Shadow Chancellor at end of 2021", + "url": "https://smarkets.com/event/42167464/politics/uk/shadow-cabinet/shadow-chancellor-at-end-of-2021", + "platform": "Smarkets", + "description": "Who will be Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer at the end of 2021?", + "options": [ + { + "name": "Anneliese Dodds", + "probability": 0.48315500928464056, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Rachel Reeves", + "probability": 0.2639490671146874, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Lisa Nandy", + "probability": 0.12282253072773897, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + }, + { + "name": "Any other MP", + "probability": 0.13007339287293307, + "type": "PROBABILITY" + } + ], + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T12:59:59.931Z", + "qualityindicators": { + "stars": 2 + }, + "optionsstringforsearch": "Anneliese Dodds, Rachel Reeves, Lisa Nandy, Any other MP" + }, { "title": "Sadiq Khan", "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.600Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -76888,7 +77247,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.600Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -76911,7 +77270,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.600Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -76934,7 +77293,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.600Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -76957,7 +77316,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -76980,7 +77339,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77003,7 +77362,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.002Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77026,7 +77385,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77049,7 +77408,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77072,7 +77431,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77095,7 +77454,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77118,7 +77477,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77141,7 +77500,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77164,7 +77523,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77187,7 +77546,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77210,7 +77569,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77233,7 +77592,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77256,7 +77615,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77279,7 +77638,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77302,7 +77661,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes", @@ -77325,7 +77684,7 @@ "url": "https://sports.williamhill.com/betting/en-gb/politics", "platform": "WilliamHill", "description": "", - "timestamp": "2021-04-08T11:25:06.601Z", + "timestamp": "2021-04-09T13:00:03.003Z", "options": [ { "name": "Yes",